 Hello everyone. Welcome to another IR capsule for the Shankar AIS Academy. Today we will discuss the most recent visit of President Joe Biden to the Middle East. Middle East or West Asia as we call it is a very important part of the world for the United States. And when normally presidents are elected in the first year itself, he goes to at least Israel, if not to several other Middle Eastern countries. But President Biden did not have the time to do so because he was preoccupied with many things as soon as he became president. And Indo-Pacific became one of his concerns. Then the pandemic affected the United States very badly. Then the Ukraine war was involved United States in a direct confrontation with Russia together with NATO. So because of all these, he was neglecting the Middle East a little bit. And therefore, he must have noticed that the countries in the Middle East are seeking new friends and new alliances in the region. And particularly China and Russia were making inroads into the Middle East. And at the same time, with the Ukraine war, President Biden is preoccupied with two things, one prices of oil and the other is the inflation in the United States. So to meet these requirements of first having to reduce the oil prices, basically to deprive Russia of exporting oil to many countries. And second was inflation in the United States for which some actions had to be taken, trade had to be improved, balanced, and so on. So that is why, though it was a little late, President Biden made this visit to the Middle East. Of course, the first place he went was Israel. With Israel, United States is very close relationship. In fact, the strongest relationship between two countries we want to see, that is the United States and Israel. Israel as a new prime minister. And that also was a reason for him to visit. So in Israel, his mission was basically to recommit himself, recommit the United States to the security of Israel. That is an absolute, what shall we say, concrete arrangement between the two countries. And Israel depends on the United States. So Israel itself is a military, literally strong nation, but it has the full support of the United States. So that every president has to restate it. And that was his main purpose. There was also another purpose, because as you know, negotiations have been taking place between Europeans and Iran on the nuclear deal, which was rejected by President Trump. So this joint action program, which was created under that treaty, has ceased to exist. And there have been discussions, both sides are willing to renew it or assign a new agreement. And therefore they have been engaged in a dialogue for quite some time, more than a year now in Vienna. But this has not made much progress. We don't know what the difficulties are. But it does not seem to have reached. We had reports earlier that they were reaching some kind of conclusion. But later, obviously, there were differences. Iranians brought up new issues, et cetera. We don't know the details. But we know that the talks are suspended and they are unable to resume it. So he wanted to give a clear message to Iran that this is not something that United States or Israel can accept. So in the case of the Middle Eastern countries, Israel is the most opposed to Iran. And Iran is also once the disintegration of Israel. And therefore he wanted to isolate Iran. And the best place to do it is to go to Israel and to say that we remain committed to Iran not making nuclear weapons. And this is Israel's desire also. So there was a joint statement there in which Israel and the United States stated that under no circumstances will we allow Iran to become a nuclear weapon state. So that's a clear signal so that if they think that they can get away without an agreement, that will be dangerous for them. That was the message. And Israel agreed with it. But there was a difference between Israel's perspective of Iran and India's, sorry, United States perspective. United States wants to resolve this peacefully at any cost. It has to be done peacefully and not to use force or not to have to use force. Israel's view is that Iran will never agree to a diplomatic agreement and therefore a threat of use of force must be advanced. And Israel pressed that with Mr. Biden. Mr. Biden had no intention to do that. He's already in the middle of a war and he did not want to threaten Iran with a war. He simply said that this will not be allowed and therefore the sooner you agree to an agreement, the better. And that message went out. But Israel said that this is not a practical way. We must threaten the use of force. And finally, Mr. Biden said that as a last resort. So there also there was an agreement. And another thing that happened when President Biden was in Israel was the inaugural meeting of what is called I2U2. This is not new. There was already another quad. You know, after the Indo-Pacific Quad, there was something called the Western Quad which included the United States and India and also Israel and the UAE. Such a combination was unthinkable a few years ago. Imagine Israel and UAE sitting in the same grouping and India and US also in that group was something unthinkable in the past. But after the Abraham Accords, as you know, several Arab countries have normalized relations with Israel and particularly UAE. And UAE is playing a major role in that grouping. So it could be called a quad but they decided to call it I2U2. I means doing ICE that is India and Israel and to use United States and UAE, a very clever name for it. But this Western Quad or this I2U2, it is basically an economic grouping. And it's not impossible that it may assume a certain security angles but the moment it doesn't have. What they have mentioned is energy, development, investment, food security, energy security, etc. So very vital issues and since it was the first meeting, they outlined the activities they want to undertake. And there is also a desire or a wish at least by some people that Egypt should join later and Saudi Arabia should join later. So if they also join, it will be really a very comprehensive grouping in the Middle East. But that has not happened yet and therefore they discussed various things. And one specific project which has approved there was between UAE and India because food security is one of the important elements of I2U2. And therefore UAE came up with a proposal that they are willing to invest two billion US dollars in India to build a chain of what they call integrated food projects. The various things must be canning and storing and various other things in India. And that is the specific proposal they made. But the other proposals will come. This was just a beginning. So a new Quad in the United States is now engaged in a kind of Quad diplomacy, one in Indo-Pacific, now one in the Middle East. And they have already got someone in something in the Central Asia also. So already there are two Quads available, but they have changed the name of this one into I2U2. So this was a major thing that happened at the time of the visit to Israel. And of course the usual affirmation of support to each other. And ironclad guarantee for the security of Israel from the United States. So Israel of course there was never any doubt about their close friendship. And therefore it was reasserted and reaffirmed. And that was of course there was nothing unexpected there. In fact there was a merit in having this new group launched. Then even before he went left three United States on this visit, there was some kind of apprehension whether he should go to Saudi Arabia at this point. The reasons are several. One is that Saudi Arabia in the last two years or so has been building bridges with both Russia and China, apart from among the GCC countries and three others in the same region. And Saudi Arabia of course has also been reforming. They have been changing their laws, more liberal attitudes towards women, new laws which protect the citizens etc. And the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has been a very powerful force. He is not only the number two man, but also defense minister. And he has risen as a major personality, not only in the Gulf, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also in the whole world. Because he's very famous for his various views, reform of Saudi Arabia itself and relationships. Of course he has been fighting a war in Yemen. And generally he was flexing his muscles and people are very careful with him. And the United States was unhappy with him because they believe that Jalal Khashoggi's mother, the famous journalist who was killed in Istanbul, was ordered personally by the crown prince. And this President Biden had repeated in several pronouncements because according to the American investigation, this man was brought into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and was murdered there under the orders from the crown prince. So this of course the crown prince denies and he also says that he has punished those who are responsible. And we know that some people have a sentence to death. But still this suspicion still continues and therefore wouldn't the President raise this issue when he goes to Saudi Arabia? And if he raises it, what would be the reaction? And therefore there was some anxiety about that. Several commentators said this is not the time for you to visit Saudi Arabia. But it was very important from the point of view of increasing oil production. So Saudi Arabia is key to that. And also for inflation to be controlled, Saudi Arabia is a big role because of the prices of products they import and the arms and ammunition and so on. So President Biden risked it. He decided to go in spite of these hesitations. But he went and came back. The criticism was the opposite. The criticism was why were you so friendly with the crown prince? Because when they met, the fists because they don't shake hands because of the pandemic. So the familiar way of greeting each other is to hit the fists against each other. And President Biden did that and showed great, comradery, great friendship and most of all was very present. And that was criticized when he came back to India. But regardless of that, President Biden says, after he came back, he said he raised the question of Khashoggi and there was no crisis. The crown prince told him very politely that he was not responsible for it. And they had committed, they had punished those who were responsible. And he wanted to close that discussion. But also he told the President, according to President himself, that this is not the only country where such things have happened, suggesting that people have been killed in the United States also. And he also mentioned a prison in Iraq where some people sympathetic to the Americans were housed. And some people broke into that and killed many people. So he mentioned the Iraqi prison. So in other words, he said, I did not do that. But this is nothing unusual. And therefore it should not be given in due importance. And as far as the other issues concerned, the crown prince was very clear that they were not in a position to increase production of oil. Because they said that this has to be done in consultation with our customers like China and several other countries. And therefore we cannot increase production suddenly. And President Biden's point was that by increasing production, Russia will not be able to export oil to other countries. And therefore their war effort will suffer. So that he did not get any promise. They said that they would try and consult others and come to a conclusion. So in that sense, his visit to Saudi Arabia was not fully successful. And then there also he had a meeting with what is called GCC plus three, three other non GCC countries. And he briefed them about American policy in the Middle East. And there is then to solve problems among themselves and try and be a force in the world. And the United States would support that kind of a message he gave. But the impression he got was that they were keeping all their options open. They were not willing to commit anything against Russia or China, because of the changing situation in the world. They said they would continue their reform program and more open and friendly. And everything was promised. But on the oil and on the inflation issue, it did not get much, shall we say, success. But then it should not be assessed on the basis of specific achievements, because this was a beginning. Middle East was neglected for more than about two years and was very essential for the president to go there and establish the credentials of the United States as a friend of the Middle East. So it was a beginning. And we can expect that the relationship with Saudi Arabia as well as the I2U2 will be further strengthened as a result of his visit. But when he went back, he faced a phenomenon that he has become less popular in the United States. In the polls, by the time that means the people of the United States did not consider his visit to be successful. And therefore his rating as president went down. Inflation went high. And also the projection that Democrats might lose the election, lose the by-election and lose the majority in the Congress. And that also came out when he went back. So it was a kind of set back for him after the visit. So we can say half empty or half full was not a fully successful visit. It was overdue. And he played his cards very well. He did not make an issue of the Khashoggi issue. But he mentioned it. I don't know in what form he mentioned it. But his answer was when he was asked whether he mentioned this case, he said, how can any president of the United States not erase issues of human rights? That fundamental to us. So regardless of whatever country, whatever our friendship, when it comes to human rights issues, no American president can keep quiet. Of course, that's the argument that they use in the case of India also. As you know, the Democrats have been raising issues about human rights in India. Even when we have very good meetings, at the end of the meeting, they raise something about how Muslims are treated, how scheduled rights are treated, etc. And their defense is that their constitution has asked them to keep an eye on human rights issues around the world. Of course, they are very critical of China, they are very critical of Pakistan, and many other countries, Cuba, etc. But in even other countries, where democratic countries, they do raise this issue. So he said, I would not have avoided raising it. And there was a risk that the Crown Prince would be offended by it. He was not. He was quite okay with the remarks he made. So if you ask me, it was a partial success. And certainly a good beginning which would mark a closer relationship between the United States and the Middle East countries. And also the other agenda is to increase the support, increase the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab countries. And that also is on the card. Saudi Arabia has not done anything yet. There are other countries, but Saudi Arabia has encouraged other countries like UAE to normalize relations. So which means that Saudi Arabia might also normalize relations with Israel. So in that way, he has given a push to that agenda also. And therefore it was, I would say, a useful visit, though we cannot say it was highly successful. Thank you. Because they are the biggest enemies. Iran does not recognize Israel, and its agenda is to destroy Israel. Because that was the agenda of most of the Arab countries also. But others have relaxed. But Iran certainly believes that Israel is a terrorist state. And they have no relationship. And so that's why Israel is very angry with Iran also. And they believe that Iran is supporting several armed militias like Hezbollah and others in the occupied territories on the West Bank and Gaza. And also in other parts of the world. So they believe that Iran is doing all this to destroy Israel. And also they have a more realistic understanding of Iran, because the United States thinks that you can negotiate with Iran. But obviously, not possible. So that is why they are so inimical to each other. That's impossible. The relationship with Iran is not at all normal. Soon after the deal was signed, it was supposed to be normalized. And sanctions are very heavy sanctions against Iran from the United States. And they said that they will implement that deal only after the sanctions are lifted. And the Americans said, no, no, no, you should, you know, Americans said that we should stop all nuclear activities according to the deal. And then when President Trump came and he said, why only for 15 years? After 15 years, what? So we need to renegotiate. So he withdrew from that agreement, saying that there's a stupid agreement. And therefore, we are trying to find a new deal. And if the deal is satisfactory for the United States, then the sanctions will be lifted from Iran. Iran will be able to sell oil and other things to the rest of the world, which they are suffering on account of that. And that is why Iran is willing to negotiate. So US-Iran relations are not at all normal. In fact, US has been asking us whether we can help in negotiating with Iran. But then they themselves are negotiating with each other. And also in the negotiations in Vienna on this agreement is going on. But the person who visited Iran was Putin. In the middle of this war, President Putin was there a couple of days after President Biden returned from the region. So giving an indication that Russia is with Iran and therefore the friends of Iran in the Middle East will be supportive of it. So that continues. Well, we have raised it. They would of course deny it. In fact, Foreign Minister, when he was in the US, he was asked about human rights questions in India. And he immediately said, but we have reasons to believe that human rights situation in the US is also not very good. And he mentioned specifically human rights violations of the people of Indian origin in the United States. But we have never said before. But as you know, Mr. Ajay Shankar is very combative. So he not only said that we'll take care of our people, we will consider their human rights grievances if any, but don't think that the United States is not guilty of human rights violations to which they did not give an answer officially. So we can say they cannot reject it. They can only say that we will inquire, investigate. And that is what they expect us to do. When they make these complaint to us, what they mean is you must investigate and let us know what happened to these cases. They actually write to us about specific cases of harassment of minorities, etc. And then we are supposed to investigate and send them a report. And that's exactly what we expect from them also. This is why I said the visitors not really successful because this mission was basically the two things. And also, his own people are not happy with this bump, fist bump. So that also is a minor matter, but assumes importance in this kind of things. So he has to rebuild it. And he will do it after his immediate preoccupation. He has to develop a policy towards China. These are the most crucial things he has to do immediately. And then elections in November. And he's already thinking of contesting for presidency after four years. There are lots of things to do. So in the process, he will also try to improve the standing of the United States in the Middle East. That is a divisive issue. Why should we go into it? We have a large number of Shias in India and that explains our relationship, good relationship with Iran, apart from historical and otherwise. So the Shias-Uni conflict is an old conflict in the Middle East and will continue forever. And we never intervene in that or even talk about it because there's something, a problem in the Arab world and we do not try to negotiate or mediate with this respect. And so that issue does not come up. Arab world or relationship is basically one of supporting the Palestinians. That has been an act of faith by India, right from Mahatma Gandhi days through Jawaharlal Nehru. Even the present government is by friendly to the Palestinians. And even the Americans are trying to help the Palestinians to rebuild that particular area, that's the West Bank and Gaza. But Israel, of course, opposes it very seriously. But we support the Palestinians. That has not changed. And also, we have fairly good trade with these countries. UAE is the biggest trading partner of India, maybe after the US or maybe sometimes even more than the US. And the projects are there. We are very supportive of the Arab countries and we have very deep relations with Arab countries. At that time, of course, we didn't have good relations with Israel, but now we have good relations with Israel also. So we are quite safe in the Middle East. No, he didn't go for Iran talk. Iran talk is going on in Vienna between the two delegations, not only United States, but also European countries. So he didn't go to Iran. But because the agreement is not being reached, he wanted to warn Iran together with Israel that they will not allow Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons, whether they signed the agreement or not. So there was a threat there. And that is why he went to Israel. And also in other countries also, he must have spoken good front. But Iran has friends in the Middle East. And so that has to be also balanced. As this was agreed long ago, it was announced as a Western Quad. So they must have weighed all these considerations, having these four countries, which are all in different groups, and they're coming together was a welcome move. And therefore, we joined it already. Only the name changed. And Prime Minister Modi kept pronouncing it very correctly. I too, you too. And so he has embraced it. Thank you.