 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we have Ambassador Bhadrakumar. And we are going to discuss the latest developments in Kartarpur-Pakistan relations, Afghanistan, which somehow is the complex of relations we have with Pakistan for a long time. Kartarpur, one of the Pakistani ministers have called it a googly. And if we remember when Sidhu went and asked for this Kartarpur corridor, he was trolled big time by the BJP. Now it seems that the googly has really been effective. And the BJP has now is basically owning up to Kartarpur. You have asked the question, you have answered it. Literally, that is the situation. Here we took the stance that no engagement with Pakistan of any kind unless terrorism is solved. Now I'll have to go back a little bit to JNK. Really, there is a sophistry in the argument because Pakistan is not doing very much in JNK nowadays. It's actually so much of a homegrown insurgency that 14-year-old boys are pickpocketed under getting kicked. And this is unbelievable. Exactly. That's why I use the word sophistry. They don't want to engage. They means the government. And I'm violently opposed to that. They don't want to engage. And they have to find some conceivable reason for not doing that. You see, it all began when the Huryat wanted to come and meet the Pakistani High Commissioner. That's right. That's where the talks broke off. Talks broke off. And now we are promoting a meeting between Huryat and the Norwegian form of our prime minister. He visits them and talks to them. And he is a credible, well-known figure in international mediation. Now, we've swung to that extent. So you see, this whole thing has fallen flat. We've lost the plot in regard of the relations with Pakistan after raising such high hopes, inviting Mr. Navasharev to come here. The poppinjapi politics and that sort of thing. So all we could do was to keep on saying this, that so long as terrorism continues. And as I said, terrorism is no longer an issue in that sense. We will not engage Pakistan. Now, the point is, the initiative by Pakistan has compelled us to hold an emergency meeting of the cabinet. This is Kartarpur and agree to go ahead with Pakistan on that. We have entered into a constructive engagement with Pakistan. We have not used that expression, but that's what has happened. But the position is that we will not engage Pakistan. And then what happened is, this is such an emotive issue since it is linked to the great legacy and memory of Guru Nanak. And an important anniversary is coming. The ruling elite cannot dissociate itself from that. Just let me interrupt you for a minute on this. If we remember that Kartarpur was not on the anvil earlier. And government or at least the BJP was openly trolling Sidhu on that. Why has it, why when you say it's a emotive issue and so on, why has it become imperative for the BJP government to really go and sort of change its position from its earliest and no truck with Pakistan till terrorism stops? And then why did they have to, as you said, call a midnight cabinet meeting to change its position? After Sidhu's first visit, no one expected a forward moment on this. And then came a decision was handed down to Delhi by Pakistan. And on a decision of that kind, I don't think anybody would have the political courage here in the present dispensation to say, no, we will not cooperate. As I said, this is linked to a very precious memory, a very precious legacy, and for a very important sub-nationality in India. It's very difficult to say, no, you have to associate. And look at it how we associate it. In an environment which is very tendentious or competitive in India today in the domestic politics, this was a bipartisan thing. Congress party. This. Climate. And now, not only that there is a symbolic representation from the union government, it could have been Akali representative for a symbolic thing. BJP also didn't want to be seen as out of it because Sidhu was going from there. And therefore, it also nominated a Sikh minister to go to claim the legacy for itself, to get a little bit of the shine. So I think really speaking, we were clean bowled by the Gugli again, by the Gugli. Let's also, you have been in diplomacy for a very long time. This kind of one-sided gesture without preparation, without talking to the other side, is quite unusual in international diplomacy, isn't it? Normally they come out of an engagement rather than before they engage. You see, the thing with Pakistan is, frankly, if there is a political will, you can go on a very long journey. And you can go very far today. Today, anytime. I've written this also because it's a paradox that this is a terribly popular topic for the Indian public opinion, a good relationship with Pakistan. And that happens to be the case in Pakistan also. Take a journey there, Prabir. And you go to a restaurant, order a meal. I've lived in that country. That's what I'm telling you. If when they know that you are an Indian, they refuse to accept money. It's more than in India. I've experienced this. My wife going and stitching is Selvarkamesh. And then the tailor says, madam, how can we take money? You are from India. This is a kind of, it's a very popular thing. So preparations, yeah, preparations. Public goodwill is there. Also in Punjab, the Punjabiya, the two Punjabs should come together and change in our experiences. Now you see, this is where we should really discuss a little bit about the, I mentioned the futility of sticking to the old, the stereotype narrative. Because I closely, I read Pakistani press every day. I mean, it's almost like reading Indian newspapers every single day, Iranian press, Pakistani press. They're ready for decades altogether and it's a habit. Now you could see that, you know, that there have been very meaningful signals from the Pakistani military. Of course, as far as the Pakistani political elite is concerned, India is no longer a contentious issue there. No one is fighting any election or any bipolar with India as a topic, you know. I mean, we look so immature here that even major political party like BJP and tall leaders drag Pakistan into, you know, the Indian elections, you know. In the surprise, after the, shall we say, the small semifinal, if you will, to the general elections in the five states, there were senior BJP leaders tweeting that this is a victory for Pakistan. So anything that happens in India, BJP doesn't win, apparently it's Pakistan. You see, the thing is, the discourse in Pakistan, you see, that's why I'm saying that the changes that have taken place there, you know, that Pakistan is on a very different level now, you know. Their discourses are not about India and I don't think the discourses are so much even about Kashmir or anything like that. The discourses are about, they are not missing an opportunity, the chance of a lifetime they have to optimally make use of their geography, their immense untapped resources with this huge investment taking place from China and the primacy that is attached to Pakistani policies by the international community, as evident from the U-turn that President Trump took. Trump has taken. I mean, it's a telling example of that and everyone is wanting to have relationship. The colossal failure of our policy to isolate Pakistan which we now realize it is completely unrealistic and a futile effort to do that. So you see, they are on a very different journey now, you know. And I don't think we should have missed it when the first signals came, six months or one year back from the Pakistani military general from the army chief, seeking reconciliation with India, you know. And I thought at that time that without acknowledgement, some meaningful back channel conversation would have begun. You know, now we are today talking where Imran Khan is openly calling the attack in Mumbai as an act of terrorism and saying that Pakistan has to get to the bottom of it because it's terribly important for the relationship also. And he called it actually used the word terrorism. Then he says that, you know, that there are things, you know, where they are mulling over two or three ideas are in the air to discuss about Kashmir. And he said it's a little premature now to say that. And then he speaks about his meeting with Atal Bihari Bajpay. All this after in and around the Katharpur Corridor situation, you know, when the Indian journalists were there. They said about this conversation with Bajpay where it was again mentioned about, you know, the solution for Kashmir possible. So I think he just stopped short of saying that he has an open mind and he's willing to pick up the threats where Manmohan Singh government left them. Now, you know, you made a specific point. I think that's very, very important for our audience that Pakistan changing from a, perhaps a more India-centric policy earlier to a much larger engagement and the economic corridor with China and the economic possibility of growth, engagement with the global economy. All of this is the, as basically the critical elements of changed Pakistan's internal politics in this regard. Do you think Afghanistan could in that sense and Balochistan, both of the problems of Pakistan? Yes, we, perhaps you are very right. You know, the succinctly, very succinctly, this transition in Pakistan can be described in one sentence. It's a transition from the complex of a national security state to one of regional integration. Now, it's a historic transition in that sense. And you know, they have fairly successfully, they have tackled the internal security challenges. And it's quite evident now that the Americans have been defeated in Afghanistan. And it's not a question of any longer salvaging the war. It's a question of pulling out of it without much humiliation, you know? At the mobile, 65% of the territories of the Taliban. It's gone and I think fairly at all levels, there is an awareness that this is a hopeless situation. And you know, the thing is, the Afghan army, which is doing the fighting, is losing more men than it is able to recruit now. Okay, so. So it's just about sums up the security situation, the hopelessness of it. And even if they commit now 10 times the present strength, the Americans for which they don't, nobody will take the political decision in Washington. Even if they do that, the tide cannot be stemmed. Now, the point is the south and the east of Afghanistan have been practically lost. And all that can be said as outside the pale of influence of the Taliban are really the northern and the westernmost part, bordering Iran. Westernmost parts and the nonmost parts are also not too close to Somalia. They're not Pashtun areas. They're not Pashtun areas. Azaras and others. Now they are closer to Iran than they are to the Taliban. So quite clearly now, the strums letter which I mentioned earlier and so on, it shows the desperation, you know, to pull out. And the great fear is now Thanksgiving season. That week itself, four American soldiers were killed, you know. And one person who was serving there was Utah mayor, you know. We have mayor of Utah, you know, he had to come, you know, because of the obligations as a reserve service man and so on, came and he got killed, you know. Now you see the thing is Trump definitely will not want to carry this cross when he goes for the election. So when you come to the geopolitics of it, you know, it's easier to invade Afghanistan than to withdraw. History shows it, you know. The British didn't fail much. Anglo have got more onward, you know, that is very difficult terrain. Now we do not realize that the supply lines for the NATO forces and the American forces are all through Pakistan. Still. Otherwise they have to be through Russia. And it's not exactly in British terms either. It's not a friendly terms either. And it is exorbitantly expensive also. And now Pakistanis are not charging anything for this. You know, it's almost gratis. We are overlooking the role that Pakistan has in the Afghan situation today. And an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan would be impossible without even the cooperation of Pakistan. This is the situation. Do you see the rise of Taliban again in Afghanistan as a threat again to the nation state of Pakistan? No, I don't think so. You know, we can maybe have one full session later on Afghanistan, because it's a profound topic. But suffice to say that the Taliban in my understanding, I have dealt with them, the Taliban in my understanding actually belongs to this traditional Islam. Not to the Tahrir Taliban, which is operating in Pakistan? No. And not to this variety Al Qaeda Islamic state and all that. Which comes really from Saudi, Wahhabi Islam. In other words, they are not part of the global jihadi moment. They are actually Afghan-centric nationalists. And you see, despite the provocations from the Indian side in interfering in the civil war in these years since mid-1990s, they have not really mounted any attack on India, you know, in India. And the attacks of the mission, et cetera, is something which is not only directed against India. You know, missions have been attacked and others have been attacked and so on in the overall anarchic conditions. But they haven't gone like. So I am saying back from Afghanistan. But I'm saying that therefore, just to sum up this point, we must discuss separately this point that I have never believed that the Taliban have an agenda on toward regional security, of regime change in Central Asia, of injecting jihad virus into India. No, not even into Pakistan. Not even into Pakistan. So your contention or your understanding is that the Tahrir Taliban growth in Pakistan is much more homegrown. Yes. And it's more the internal problems of Pakistan with the Pakistan government. Inevitably, as you know, others, foreign powers dabbled in it. You know that, you know, in the sense that the time and again, Pakistan gave precise information to the Americans as to where the notorious fellows were living. But Americans never did took any action. Till lately, they have been compelled to, because Pakistan started non-cooperating itself. Similarly, they got patronage from Kabul from the security establishment. And, you know, the perception grew that, you know, that there might have been an Indian element also, because the security establishment in Kabul has a back-to-back deal with the security establishment in Delhi. And the way intelligence agencies work, you know. Enemies, enemies, your friend. However, reprehensible the might. This lent credibility to the Pakistani propaganda, you know. And I really can't say to what extent there is an element of truth in it. And we can't pause yet. So without getting into the murky details which are not available to us in any case, what you are saying is Pakistan is at a crossroad. And both the military and the civilian administration under Imran Khan are looking to a different kind of engagement. And therefore, this is a historic moment if India is willing to seize the initiative. Yeah, you know, this transition I mentioned towards regional integration. This also means that, you know, that, you know, when you look at it from the Pakistani side, there is also a lot of admiration, even though we run down, you know, our own performance ourselves, and we are never fully satisfied with what we are doing. And we say it's all fudging statistics and all that. But when you look at it from outside, they think, you know, that we have done in the last 10 years or 15 years, we have done remarkably well. Let us look at it, how the Pakistanis are seeing India. They have a problem with the present setup in the sense that, you know, in the present setup, the ruling elite, BJP and the forces which mentor it, the Hindu fundamentalist groups and so on, they are perceived as anti-Pakistan, anti-Muslim. And therefore, the sincerity of purpose, of the present leadership, there is a question mark about it in the Pakistani perspective. The question is therefore having for four years, nine months, made Pakistan the key enemy. And Kashmir as the major plank for, shall we say, rousing nationalism in the rest of the country. That's what really it was doing. Whether now they can reverse that and say, we are now the statesmen, we are going to reap the benefit of a hard political stand, and Pakistan is now coming to us. And therefore, let us, you know, our strategy has succeeded. Could be a possible turn that the Modi government could take. That's to be the real question of asking. I had thought that Prime Minister Modi goofed up. He had a good opportunity when Imran Khan was elected. To really open it up. To really open it up. And to be frank with you, as an observer of Modi's style of politicking, I thought, you know, with his panache for photo ops and grandstanding and so on as a diplomacy, I thought, you know, that he would build it up towards the end of this year to a Sark Summit. Facilitating a triumphant visit to Pakistan. Their calculation was to use Kashmir and Pakistan. That's what I'm saying. Now the point is, if they had been imaginative enough, there was much to be scored out of a thing like that. Peace rather than war. Peace rather than war. Now, even former army people, general have written that the surgical strikes are a joke. That it had no effect. Now, the point is, nobody... Number of, you know, killings on both sides. Both of militants and Indian army security forces have risen to the last point. Now, you see, the point is that your kind of thing which you mentioned that the government went brag that they brought Pakistan down to their knees, there's no empirical evidence showing that. And Pakistanis are not down on their knees. My God, I can tell you, they are not really begging us anything, you know? They want engagement. I am quite completely in agreement with you. But, you know, bragging rights are in Facebook and WhatsApp. And let's not forget that. The second point I want to ask you, this is really my question, do you think Pakistan will engage at this point with the named government? And suppose it loses, then they have to start afresh. So will they do that or they will sort of say, okay, let's talk, let's talk, but really not lead to a solution till the elections take place? You see the, you are looking at it in terms of the Pakistani strategy. I think the Pakistani strategy would be to see that the atmosphere, the conditions are ripe for an engagement when a new government with a fresh mandate comes to power in Delhi. So they will have to manage between now and that point. And I think from the way they are doing, they will do it with a constructive spirit. They are not going to wish it the atmosphere and bring matters to a kind of a big stalemate or impasse at that time. You know, they would rather gain out of a good climate building up. Take Kartarpur. Now we had a certain kind of bipolarity in India that when BJP is in power, Congress would snipe at BJP. When BJP is outside, it would snipe at Manmohan Singh. We saw that when it comes to Pakistan because there's always consolidation of voters. You know, this is useful. But now the point is that's not going to be possible because on Kartarpur, everyone is on the same page. So I have a feeling that it is a brilliant move by Pakistan even to bring about a consensus, national consensus within India about engaging Pakistan. Secondly, as I mentioned earlier, they have, to whatever extent they might have been involved in the valley, they are no longer doing it. And there is open admission by knowledgeable people who feel the pulse in the valley and who are terribly experienced like Mr. Dullad. For long years, he dealt only with this subject. And if he says that he sees no Pakistani and any longer there in Kashmir, nor the Kashmiri people hangaring for a union with Pakistan, then it's quite clear that if at all there was a Pakistani interference that is not there today. And then this Kartarpur initiative, this one, then maybe for yesterday, in the National Assembly, Pakistani Foreign Minister Kaurasi made a statement. I don't know Indian press reported it, but it was a major statement he made. He has sought cooperation from India in Afghanistan. That's a big statement. That's a complete change. It's a big change, you know. And why did he say that? He said Pakistan recognizes India's influence in Afghanistan. And therefore India's cooperation is useful for Pakistan. So I think- You see the changes that have happened, huh? So let's hope that these changes that are happening, both in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, the economic corridor in Balochistan, all of this takes up continent, South Asia in a better direction, because I think we are all waiting for that. You know that the point is, we have discussed the positive things, but equally there is also the negative things. Like, you know, we both agree that on the economic side, you know, there isn't much to be done now by this government that will make a change in the political climate. I am afraid that other things may happen. You know, I hope they're known because as a patriot, as an Indian, a law-awaiting citizen, it's the last thing you want. But you know, the kind of thing that happened in Baloch, it really gives you a creepy feeling as to, you know, when faced with the specter of a defeat of the kind that, you know, on the 11th, you know, we saw, anything may happen, you know? One shudders to think what all can happen. Now, if that kind of a thing happens, then- Then of course all the bits are off. Then all the bits are off. But otherwise we have hope. Then the thing is, always there is this problem of interest groups, you know, Prabir, unless you are of an extraordinarily high level of erudition, you don't admit mistakes, you know? And because you must be a very enlightened person to admit that you can make mistakes, you know? And then here the point is, there is also a gravy train running, you know? And again as part of the establishment, I have seen it, how well looked after these people who are involved in this business of the insurgency fighting and so on in Pakistan. So they are stakeholders in a certain way. And you already saw in the downstream of the Kartapur corridor, the old narrative being rehashed and reproduced again, that Imran Khan is not a free agent, that he's a progeny of the military and so on. In that case, earlier time, the narrative was that, what is the point in dealing with Navash Sharif because he doesn't get along with the military? Now the point is the complaint is, they get along like a house on fire, you know? So I don't know where the problem is. So you see there, the thing is you're unable to change out of that narrative. You become, you are entrapped in it, you are a captive. And now there must be therefore a strong political leadership with a certain sense of direction which Manmohan Singh had. That kind of a leadership with a sense of direction is necessary considering that if for some reason it is the same ruling elite which is going to run India for another five years after the next 2019 poll. Well, you must understand that the correlation of forces remain the same. It is the same forces, same groups. You know, the fundamentalist groups which would be mentoring this ruling elite. And probably if that were to happen, then you will see a surge even in that direction. So you see there are therefore, you know, one can only be at best cautiously optimistic. There are very many negative factors also. Thank you very much Ambassador Bhadrakumar. This is all the time we have for today on this in discussing this issue. Cautiously optimistic hope yet, but problems also on the horizon. Thank you very much. Please keep watching Newsclick. We'll come back to you with this and other editions of our news.