 is a presentation of T F N N. A power trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1 877 927 6 648 internationally at 727 445 1044 now David White. And welcome all to another exciting day of the week. First once more to the into the breach. Do we go, dear friends? The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Every trading day that I'm here anyway. What do we have going on? Well, it's kind of a quiet day getting ready to go into the fund. The Fed, uh. Cycle starting tomorrow with their meeting on Wednesday. There are a lot of. Excitement until probably, uh or even real direction until about 3 15 when it's normally over to 3 30. So we're going to have probably a quiet handful of days volume certainly decreased. We didn't even get to 6 billion shares on Friday. So as we start the week, we've got pretty much what we were looking at on Friday when I showed the options currently on Friday when I showed the options curve, and that is that, um. Probably an 80% chance of a little bit higher and 20% chance of a lot lower. So the question is, do you want to be putting on new positions? I'm not a big fan of it. I also don't see any kind of reason to be extremely bearish going through the next week. Maybe we get it. We certainly have light volume. But again, we if you have a big news event, you can have light volume for several days. The thing you really have to be worried about as a bear is that it just hangs out here for a long time because, uh. You know, you get that sideways action. The overbought condition can kind of simmer away or take some time and consolidate. But again, the the odds are that if it hangs up at the highs that it's going to go retest the eyes, probably break them. And the question is whether or not at that point you want to pull the trigger short. I just don't see a lot of good risk reward as we start the day today, uh, 2895 on the SP cash. In fact, let me update that because it doesn't look like it was updating. Yeah. 2894.66 on the S M P cash dows up 58 and as X up 64 almost 65. Russell's up 14. Even one of some of the more conservative hosts today like Jim Grant of Jim Grant interest rate observer, who's a guy that one of the few guys that seems like he understands what's going on. His time frame is a lot different than us. Even investor time frames. He's looking 10 15 years down the line. So, um, but he's saying that he thinks that we're going to get a rate cut, which I think is kind of interesting and one of the few people out here that thinks so. And the question is if we get one in the market, I don't think is expecting it. I think they're expecting more jaw boning. So if we get a rate cut, is the market going to be scared? Are you going to think that the Fed knows something that we don't know? And that's always the issue is the market does not always act the way that you think it should act. In fact, I wrote about that today in the newsletter. There's something called the Keen's Beauty Contest. And it is not betting on who you think is the best looking. But betting on who you think everybody else thinks is the best looking. They did a big test. I think it was public radio on this did a big test with like hundreds and hundreds of people and they had they separated the hundreds and hundreds of people into two groups. One group was just say who is what you this cute animals? Which one's the best looking? And then they did another test and that test was we're going to give you some money if you pick who you think that everybody else thinks is the best looking. And it was basically a coin flip in the first one. I think half people chose the dog after people chose the kitten. But when they were asked to find out or think about who other people thought that would be the cutest animal, 75% of the people chose the kitten and there lies the rub. We are not in the business of picking the best company. We're picking we're in the business of picking the best or worst if you're short company. That everybody else thinks is great or bad. Not exactly what you would think. So this is in the context of somebody asking me in one of my subscribers asking me about news and why it's so toxic to most traders, and that is that you have to put it through a filter of not whether it's good or bad, not whether or not it's the cutest animal, but how everybody else is going to think about it. And then of course you can go down the rabbit hole of well if they think that way, then I'll go down the rabbit hole. Maybe maybe they're really thinking the opposite way of the way that they think they should. We've all seen that in the movies and television where well we've got to think that way, but that's exactly the way they think we're going to be. And it gets into that vicious endless loop of I'm thinking they thinking that so they so I've got to think just that they're thinking about going to the fetal position and you don't know what to do. But well, at least in my opinion, the reason that news is toxic to most traders, it's not to me. But it took me a long time to figure out that we're not in the right or wrong business. We're in the higher or lower business. And a lot of times if you look at news, you're going to put your own biases into it and believe the way that whoever this politician said something. So therefore it's bad and it's bad for the market. That's not it. You have to dispassionately look at it. Not only think about whether it's good or bad because that good or bad probably will matter long down the down the line. But today, it's just like the Fed. Is that news good or bad if we get a rate cut? Will the market do just the right thing because it's not really looking for the most beautiful. But what everybody else thinks is the most beautiful and what a rate cut actually turn everything around and scare everybody out of and the bejesus out of it. Or will the market just go to brand new highs thinking that well, my morphine IV drip is back on. And that's all I care about because we're all just crack money. Oh, that beautiful cheap money. Oh, those dollars those simoleons as long as are cheap to rent. We're more than glad to get them. So we'll see how that works out and of course it's going to be two o'clock on Wednesday and then of course 230 we see the dog dog and pony show and Mr. Fed gets to go out there and do his dance on the catwalk on the catwalk. He does a little dance on the catwalk. We'll be back after this. The Taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day? 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You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions we even have new pricing in six months and yearly options check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 and we are back check in and see what the volume is so far today it was figuring that it was going to be low we're only doing about 3.3 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape if you're new to the show please email me I'll send you the link and you can watch the volumes but again a lot of people will talk about volume and maybe it's just the floor traded the New York Stock Exchange or all the stocks on the NYSE but I think 23 different venues right now where you can trade stocks and they're all torn up into different things but it's got it separated for tape A, B and C tape A and B or the NYSE and the ARCA AMEX and then the tape C is the NASDAQ and you add them all up but they've got a nice spreadsheet and it's going to take 20 minutes so it's not like as long as you figure out by this time of day what's going on doesn't matter in the first couple of minutes but it gets you a good reading on it and what I put in the newsletter every day because it is one freely available and two the only one that's actually busted out so you can see how much dark cool volume is each day right now it's running about 38% it's probably fairly extensive when you think about it when four tenths of the market is happening with the men behind the curtain you're not in Kansas anymore and you can click your heels twice but you're not going home either on that let's go ahead and get a little history out of the way we'll get into the rest of the shoe then it's all just a little bit of history repeating on this day in 1994 millions of Americans watched former football player and movie star O.J. Simpson facing murder charges drive his Ford to Bronco through Los Angeles followed by police it ran almost eight hours and I'm not one to start a conspiracy theory here but that Ford Bronco that the baseball player friend of his had who I met like 10 years earlier than that maybe 15 years earlier than that Al Collins Al Collins just to say hi I think I met him at a bar or something didn't even know who he was at the time but interestingly enough later I thought it was kind of interesting you see somebody on TV like that after you meet them but you know what that thing was those Ford Broncos back then I think it was like a 1980 Ford Bronco or something those things were gas hogs they got about five miles to the gallon but this guy was able to drive for eight hours on a single thing to gas I know they weren't driving fast but the one thing I always wondered was having like a truck like that it would run out of gas at four hours how did that guy get eight hours out of a tank of gas which is what I always worried about everybody will remember where they were when JFK was assassinated when Bobby Kennedy was shot where the space shuttle blew up in 1986 I remember all those things I remember where I was in 1994 I was standing in in headquarters with all the stuff running live as I was installing equipment for an upgrade to the studio and of course how can you get anything done when that's on a big projection screen right next to you and everybody's doing stuff but I thought it was kind of interesting to be right there at the news seeing it live why we installed installed equipment I remember for two reasons that and the fact that there was a grateful dead concert that apparently was running all week long at the stadium which is right next to CNN there in Atlanta and I had to climb over a piles of people sleeping in everywhere to get into the building and they didn't get up until about four in the afternoon so I had to always clean through those the dead heads never saw the dead listened to the music I thought it was okay I don't understand the big deal but on this day in 1994 I know where I was and where all the smelly dead head folks were okay so what else do we have going on to do so I didn't see that Seinfeld did a parody of the Bronco chase you got to figure that that's got to be done a couple of emails coming in here okay I will send that link to do what else do we have somebody wants to look at Microsoft and say is it making any kind of signals we'll take a quick look I guess we kind of have to look at Microsoft kind of like we looked at Apple for a long time and that now that it's the trillion dollar company kind of no coming back from it 134 24 was the June 11th pie you were looking at 26 and a half million chairs today just under 8 million as we do this show but again if you're expecting everybody to give up into the Fed probably not I would not be surprised that we move down tomorrow 10 points after the open and close flat yet again but the market is kind of held a gun to the head of the Fed for the last 5 years or so if they do anything the market actually tanks putting the blame squarely on them I don't think I'd want to be in their seat and not in the game and not of the glory which is kind of the way it's working right now so maybe there's a lot of pressure on them to cut or at least be dovish I don't know whether it's going to be I know one's expecting that they're going to raise the question is are they dovish enough to actually cut or they just going to jaw bone I think they kind of feel like they're pressured into cutting so maybe they won't general grant from Jim into great observer one of the great thinkers on Wall Street again kind of a long term kind of guy don't be trading on a weekly basis on what he says but he thinks that they're going to cut which would be kind of interesting and like I said is everybody going to be shocked that they cut if they do are they going to be scared if they cut thinking that maybe they see something that we do not see I don't think the market is betting on a cut right now if it did I would not be surprised to see that we go up and tag the highs before they close on Wednesday again if there's some kind of news out the market is kind of brittle I don't see a lot of good risk reward I've got some positions that we've been in for a while in the tech insider but to me trading for the next day or two or a week I see a lot more risk than reward and I think I'm better off waiting for a clear and unambiguous signal before I put on some other positions of course Friday we go into options expiration and like I said not much has changed on that a little bit higher very high probability low probability a lot lower we'll be back intro day afternoon updates when warranted don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to David's daily newsletter the path of leaser resistance with no obligation to pay anything David has been delivering solid 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the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com go get them folks TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software and it will give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com we're back Rich from Oregon if you want to call in I'd appreciate it just not you got 15 things staring at me and I need something flashing that actually says I've got a caller I generally check that stuff at the break and if there's not something flashing probably not looking down at it so sorry about that but if you call back in they are taking your call what else do we have going on we'll look at a few other stocks XHB the 4 million share high the third $41.58 like I said 4 million shares into it today with about 822,000 shares so again even in the last couple of days we got about 2 million you're just up here at about half of the volume so the market is brittle but it does not mean that it will break just yet on a longer term scale the Willis was it Willis Willis Group I don't think that's right we'll move on to that one Winnebago and that is the February 25th high $34.95 $1.33 million shares into it on Friday with just $385,000 shares and again $267,000 shares today but again no sign that these things are pulling back or turning down what so ever TPX temper Sealy posture pedic back into it's highs from June 5th that was $710,000 shares this one actually looks fairly good $500,000 shares so far today so we could actually come into that with the same at least the same volume we've seen before Scott's Miracle Grow really getting back into this huge gap down that took it back down to $57.96 on December 24th but of course this gap down that started it all goes back to July 30th of 2018 where it came down on about 4.9 million shares and well I'm going to say you're going to hit 100 and at that point you got to decide whether or not you think that there's a short opportunity in this I continue to think that long term this may be the big winner in the marijuana space what else do we have RTN which is Raytheon nothing new in that one Right Aid Corporation Corvo of course that whole space you had the gap down from Thursday's Avago news and just a little pullback into it let's take a look AVGO see how this is doing now after the big clubbing it took on Friday down with heavy volume of a little over 10 million shares today just 2.6 million shares but you're basically right around where you closed on that date $250.09 is that May 28th low which is probably going to get tagged see what else do we have da da da petroleum resources it's just testing this high $9 range which has been resistance for many times PTI has to go through yet today Penny Mack mortgage investment trust that pins and needles partially energy speaking of the marijuana stocks and bitcoin stocks over stock.com talk about a stock that went up on fake news and that was that they were going to be somehow the big bitcoin winner because they were the only company accepting bitcoins got to $89.80 back on January 8th 2018 it's done nothing but really go down since then I noticed that they're running new ads and this is the first time I've seen ads for this company I'm going to say in multiple years not exactly sure what that's all about but they are running retail ads again I'll see in that to ORN see on that ONBO we're going to see what else is in here MyGen, MYGN Myrid genetics of course we had a buyout in the biotech space today doesn't seem to do much from Myrid genetics take a quick look at the IBB the buyout candidate was 60% pre-market which is generally put enough in here you don't have a lot of juice but certainly if you're a long IBB I'd certainly look at 108 as where this thing looks like it's going to go after the move today if we get some volume in before the end and again one that's kind of been on the outs for a long time generally after 2 or 3 years of having leadership in one sector of the economy for stocks you get a sector rotation and my thought is that it's been in the woodshed so long that it's probably the number one candidate biotech by the way is probably the number one candidate for a big run even if the broad markets probably don't go very far to what else do we have mankind MNKD and just moving along down the floor nothing new in that one Johnson Controls is JCI it's back up against its previous high this one actually had some fairly decent volume over the last few days it's come up against its August 21st 2018 high so almost a year into the $40 7 cent high with the 9.6 million shares a couple of days ago you've had some volume 8.6 million shares a little bit of a retrace out here today but not much in the way of volume ITB which is the home construction ETF it's going a little bit there this man just hanging at highs and of course probably what the Fed says on Wednesday so you probably want to keep this and some other ones up to date hopefully we can get Rich from Oregon to call back in the next segment if not we'll talk about AMD anyway what else do we have to to to GMO General Molley let's see anything new in that one GDX and we talked about just how light the volume was in the gold miners itself you got a doji at here today but 62 million shares from the February 20th high at $23.70 again 62 million shares of course on Friday at 42 million shares it did kind of get up there 3 cents shy of that high rotated back down second doji at here today certainly I think housing gold and everything in those sectors probably needs to be your focus on Wednesday afternoon after the Fed I don't think you're going to see a lot of movement between now and then be back in a minute the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the target first mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years what should you prefer $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment if you'd like more information about the target first mortgage program you can call me at 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 all of the TFNN newsletters are informative up-to-date, affordable and it must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks, bonds, metals, commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN stay informed each day you trade and get that competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page TFNN.com educating investors are China A shares hot or not? if you trade China A shares now may be time to take a closer look trade CHAU or CHAD directions daily CSI 300 China A share bull and bear ETFs China A shares in either direction visit directioninvestments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before 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plan to license the operating system to other manufacturers that Steve Jobs was pushing is really got what got him thrown out of the business and from Wall Street's perspective all they got to do is hear that maybe you're going to have a you're changing the business model and they want to get out and I don't think that unless AMD can change what they do and start getting their margins anywhere close to what Intel's does that it's a threat Apple makes 90% of all the money in the cell phone business it is 13% of the cell phone business that is kind of the same thing with Intel it has a huge percentage of the business not a small percentage like AMD or a smaller percentage but at the same time they have massive margins there's only a handful of companies that continue to every month crank out 60 to 70% margins and Intel is one of them AMD I think the last time I looked last quarter I'm going to I hate to even say but think it was around 35% if you get a spreadsheet out you'll see exactly what it means so can AMD hurt Intel the answer is possibly is the answer that AMD does so much better in the future I don't know I think they've got a real problem in the video card business the ray tracing games are really coming out Nvidia could really really stick it to them the other side of that coin is that in 2020 Intel is coming out with video cards and that may actually be something that's starting to hurt AMD right now markets tend to look 6 to 9 months into the future and if we're talking about Intel coming out with video cards for Christmas that may be a huge issue for both Nvidia and AMD if they can hurt them really where the biggest margins are and that is they make okay margins on their CPUs but make no mistake a great deal of what happened with AMD was their video cards and that margin continues to fall all the time and Intel will be coming out with its own video card line they hired the chief that quit from AMD they've got a couple of people they've hired from Nvidia and the scale that can build it is a problematic for both of these companies Nvidia and AMD CEOs or cousins everybody is a cousin in Taiwan by the way little did you know but they all are everybody's related to everybody over there remember that that whole island was basically deserted before 1948 and what was it the chai king shake can't remember his name the non-communists got run out and they went over there but they started with not that many folk over there that left I think a handful of millions compared to the billion even at that time I think in China so continue on I go Nevada and I get a sneeze and I'm back from sneezing right back up at the top 78 82 was the March 13th I this year at 665,000 chairs hit it with 431,000 chairs on the 7th gave it up now it's back up today 331 Friday at 462 you're bucking up against those but again I'm going to say that most of these will move right after the Fed announcement and probably right after the press announcement and then my guess is we're going to settle down and we're going to wait for the next shoe to drop which is that meeting between the president of China the communist China and the president of this United States Fitbit let's take a look at that Chiang Kai could be Chiang Kai right that's what it was man it's been a long time that was 1948 that was many years before my mother bored me to do what else did we have eBay I haven't looked at that one for a while eBay as I've said before this thing keeps coming back up to the top but it's been nothing but a conduit for selling as one guy on YouTube calls it Chinese equipment and I've heard some very novel theories but it seems to hold out and it may be the truth and that is that after everybody's supposed to knock off these guys that have already worked for 12 hours or another 2 hours and continue producing stuff and then we'll drag it down to the market and sell it so you end up with all this extra stuff going through eBay which is actually products that are made after hours in a lot of these factories over in China and this is actually how all those Chinese that are getting paid kind of dollar a day kind of thing make their living that is that oh yeah we're going home we're going home in a minute as soon as all the bosses leave they fire everything up start making stuff and sell it through eBay after hours I don't know how I can prove it but it sounded like a very interesting theory eBay is testing the 17 million share March 1st high $39.14 and you got into it with 10 million shares but again no big reversals and if I was going to say that I was looking at a stock that would be incredibly levered to the trade deals I think it's eBay because as far as I can tell half the stuff is from China on that website now and it's not so much selling old stuff it's how much stuff that you can get back of the truck we all remember that story right yeah just fill off the back of the truck yeah that's the ticket electronic arts when we come back maybe we'll look at a few other things I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number 1 market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months Timer Digest also ranks me as the number 1 market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do I'll sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too sign up today David White's newsletter The Technology Insider is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology if you had invested only $10,000 in Microsoft in 1986 and a millionaire by 2000 disruptive technology like Microsoft is the key to these massive long term profits and the tech insider is the vehicle from TFNN to capitalize on these opportunities this is the go to newsletter that identifies, monitors and profits on mostly little known cutting edge companies with great long term prospects David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy winning animation products for TV and Hollywood that propelled a company public match that with 14 years as a full time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light speed world of ever evolving high tech if you're ready to ride the next big technology bull market for less than $40 per month log on to TFNN.com and get your two week free trial to the technology insider get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today since 1984 Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion well originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970's into the 1980's Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN and okay what else do we have to do to do okay somebody brought up Domino's this morning and not doing much a lot of these stocks are basically coming out to the apex of a fairly long triangle like Domino's is you're probably going to get a fairly good pop one way or the other in the next few days because this thing is just going sideways of course generally you don't somewhere around the highs want to see stock just going sideways but it's not the coming out but that would be it okay what else do we have disney no disney had a big dog of a movie out this weekend not much happening there because of it but it looks like a 200 million right off for men in black whatever it is 34 son of men in black men in black part four part deuce don't know but it kind of amazing that you can throw 200 million 250 million away on a movie and it really doesn't affect this company anymore but I think you got like 34 30% a rotten tomatoes so apparently it's a giant stinker of a movie but okay we've got guys in kind of light gray with bow ties maybe that's it maybe that's the new thing not much going on out there you certainly I don't want to be in disney right here but certainly looks like mid-122 is where you'd want to buy it if you get the opportunity on a pullback but that's about it again all quiet on the western front waiting for the fed and as soon as the fed is over then we're probably going to be looking at waiting for mr. Z and president numeral one of the United States to meet on the 29th after that so when you can not when you have to see your mom same that channel same that