 Well, aloha everyone. It's Tuesday. Normally we're here on Wednesdays, but for some reason the Think Tech Hawaii crew are doing some work. Workshop with OC-16, I believe it is, on Wednesday. So here we are. We're very flexible. I found out about this about three hours ago. Hustled up my guest Richard Ha from the Big Island, so we're doing round two with Richard. The overall show is Hawaii, the state of clean energy and it's sponsored by the Hawaii Energy Policy Forum and also some of the funding comes from the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute where I have my day job. So without more ado or talking, I'm going to introduce Richard Ha, who was on the show a couple of weeks ago now and we also won the award for we were the fourth most popular show that previous week. So yay, and that was all to do with Richard because he had such good content. So round two, Richard, last time we talked about the fact that the shale oil, while it's been good for a while, it looks like it's, you know, there's storm clouds on the horizon. That's the best way to put it. So Richard, the first topic you wanted to talk about and help us out with is some new developments and new information you have on the status of shale oil. So I'm going to let you start doing some of the talking over. Okay, thanks a lot. Yeah, just to place, within the last two weeks, is that this guy David Hughes, who's a very well known researcher and expert in the field of oil geology. I ordered the book. I've had it for a few days. And what I was really interested in the book was to see what his conclusion was about and it was about shale oil. And his conclusion was, you know, 10 years ago when I first noticed that the shale oil was starting to come online pretty strong and everybody was all excited about the financial and nobody really knew what was going on. But prior to that, we were all afraid that if we didn't have anything coming online, we were in big trouble. That is the US would be in big trouble. We were then declining. But then the shale oil started and the first one was the financial and everybody got excited about it. And what we found out back then was that out of the 4,000 wells they analyzed, the average well came off 90% of what it was going to give off in four to five years. And so that told us, wow, in four to five years we've got to drill a new one just to stay even. Now that was scary. But nevertheless, that was in 2009, then it went. It started to increase in production. And then just recently we're supposed to be the biggest oil producer in the world. But with this new book, what was really important to notice was that by that shale I talked about just now. 10 years ago was real popular. Well, it's in permanent decline now. Well, that's pretty scary, isn't it? So we're going along with this false impression that everything's rosy and good. The thing is making it rosy and good is now in decline. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, absolutely. So we knew it then. But then when we mentioned it to people, it was hard for people to understand because there was so much oil, there was not a worry. But now we see that what we thought then is actually coming true. And so this book analyzes 10 of the shale plays that represents 90-70% of all the shale oil in the United States. And out of that, only four plays have a significant amount, maybe 50% of the total production. And the biggest one is called the Permian. And the Permian, what is scary about the Permian is that the CEO of Schlumberger, in his earnings report, said that 50% of the wells drilled in the Permian is now child wells. Child wells mean that they drill all those sweet spots and now they're going in between those wells. And with currently new technology, they managed to keep the amount of production the same. But the difference is, instead of four to five years, what they succeeded in doing was getting more volume out, which means the thing is going to last a shorter period of time, like two to three years. So now what do we do? Because what we do know, and with Nathan Higgins, all supply, world all supply is tied to GDP. And it makes sense because all of those work and work is GDP. We're coming to the point where all supply is going to drop off. I'd say three, four years, maybe even sooner. When it starts dropping off, GDP will start sliding too. In other words, yes. So here we are in Hawaii in the middle of the Pacific where everything is brought in. We're at the tail end of the supply chain. So what do we do? That's the question I was going to ask you. What's the impact on Hawaii? Was it 10 years ago when price of oil went up so high, what was it $140 a barrel? And our energy costs skyrocketed. And it was really bad news for at least a couple of years, two or three years before the oil started to go back down. So we're going to see another cycle like that. So I guess the question is, or the challenge is, is instead of just sitting back being complacent, we need to use this time that we have, this gift of time to be proactive and try to get ahead of this curve and be ready for it with our own indigenous supplies of energy. And not fool around and wait and delay and all the other things that happen so that we're not moving forward. So do you want to comment on that? Yeah, and there's another reason why, a practical reason why we should move forward quicker than slower. Because right now the oil supply is still up there. So the price is still relatively stable. Correct. Now when we go down the opposite side of the oil supply curve, the price is going to go up. Right. So if we wait too long, the infrastructure will cost more. True. So it's better for us to move now and get it done faster rather than slower, just for that practical purpose. So how do we do that, Richard? In your opinion, what does it take? It obviously takes political will, but how can we get that imparted to people? Because people only make moves, I read a book on it a long time ago. They only make a movement when they're suffering some kind of pain. If I'm not suffering pain, well, why bother? But as soon as I start suffering pain, then I want to address my pain and do something about it. And right now I think the problem is nobody feels threatened. There's no pain. I can go to the gas station. I'm paying like $4 a gallon or whatever it is. And that's not at the pain threshold. I mean it hurts a little bit, but it's not at the pain level. So how do we do that? How do we build a sense of urgency into our public here, the general public, to get going on this stuff? Yeah. And what we should be doing is sharing the information in Nehegan's Reality 101 energy course. Because he covers it really well. And we really need to be sharing this with the younger folks because it's their life that's being affected. So tell us about Nate and what his program is for the people who aren't. I mean, most people don't know what you're talking about. So here's a great plug for you to make a pitch on what Nate's doing. Yeah, well, Nehegan's used to be a, he used to work on Wall Street. Okay. And he was an investment banker. And then, you know, and he only had multimillion dollar clients. Right. And what he did notice was that the folks that was his clients were motivated pretty much by just making more and more and more money. And then as he observed and what was going on, he felt like, gee, something's wrong with this picture. Because they didn't seem to be any happier, making more money than the average person on the street. So he quit his job. Then he started to, he quit his job and he became the director of the oil drum, this blog. It's a blog called the oil drum? It was back then, you know, that was 10 years, even more ago, that people were having this discussion because we were noticing the oil supply declining before shale oil. So he quit and then he spent all his time analyzing and trying to figure out what the picture was. And what is interesting about his approach is that it's a broad approach. It's not in silos. He's not an oil engineer. He covers a lot of ground, you know, like he would know the reason why humans are motivated to do what they do. So he's produced a series of videos. I've seen them and they're really geared to the general public. You know, they're non-scientific. They've got enough technology in them to, you know, to make the point. But they're really made for the general public and for the man in the street to really understand the situation. So as I understand it, you're planning on either bringing him out here or we're looking at actually doing a series on his set of videos. Is that correct? Yeah, that is correct. So September, October, he's coming to Hawaii. And we're trying to organize. I brought him to Hawaii several years ago to give a presentation at UH Hilo. So this is going to be a second presentation like this. But at the same time, I've shown his video to some of the people at the university and community college. And they realize immediately that this is something that they got to teach a young young folk. So they're trying to figure out how to put it into their curriculum. So that's what's going on in addition to him giving a talk and stuff. But it's all about education. It's all about the young folks. Because they're smart. They already know that something ain't right. So then this is what we're going to show them is that they're right. Something ain't right. And give them an idea of what's taking place. We're not in a position to tell them what exactly to do. But what we can do is tell them what their environment will look like as they're growing up and as time goes by. And what to consider so that they can make the decision. We need to empower them that way. So how do we reach the whole audience of everybody on Hawaii? Do you have any ideas on how we do that? You can have a little presentation, but usually the crowds are small. How do you get to the whole population of Hawaii? Do you have any thoughts on that? Think Tecawaii is one avenue we can try to reach out, but we need to expand our listening audience. So how do you think we do that? Do we go and talk to the board of education or the legislature and say, hey, how about mandating, making a policy that the DOE has got to mandate this kind of courses in our schools? Yeah, I do think that's what we need to do. We need to educate. And the question only is how young should we expose them to this idea of what's going on? You know, you said it. These kids are smart. If you challenge them, these little kids are like four or five-year-olds. They know how to work computers and do all this kind of stuff. They read and write and all this kind of things. I would think we could gear it for different grade levels and start them out really young. I mean, I was over at the Marine Corps Base Elementary School and I gave a presentation on hydrogen to these kids. And I was like blown away by how informed these kids were. And the questions they asked were like really, really mature. And they've been thinking about this stuff. I mean, frankly, I was blown away by how informed these kids. And kudos to their teachers, too, because the teachers were promoting that. And they, in fact, invited us to come over there and give the presentation in the first place. So I mean, some teachers, local teachers took the initiative, showed great initiative. But we need to get this out to all the schools, private schools, public schools, all the schools. Because that's where you can capture the kids. And they're there. They have to be there. And these course and these videos were really entertaining. So it's not like, oh my god, I'm going to fall asleep or this is really boring. So anyway, we're going to stop and have a break right now. So we'll be back in about one minute and we're going to continue this conversation, Richard. So you can start thinking about the answer of how do we get the word out and keep it out there and make sure people have really got it, you know? Right, right, right. Okay, so we'll be back in about one minute. So, standby. Aloha, I'm Stan Osterman, a host here on Think Tech Hawaii, a digital media company serving the people of Hawaii. We provide a video platform for citizen journalists to raise public awareness here on the island. We are a Hawaii nonprofit that depends on the generosity of its supporters to keep on going. We'd be grateful if you go to thinktechawaii.com and make a donation to support us now. Mahalo. Aloha, I'm Gwen Harris, the host here at Think Tech Hawaii, a digital media company serving the people of Hawaii. We provide a video platform for citizen journalists to raise public awareness in Hawaii. We are a Hawaii nonprofit that depends on the generosity of the supporters to keep on going. We'd be grateful if you go to thinktechawaii.com and make a donation to support us now. Thanks so much. Aloha, everybody. We're back from our one-minute break and we're live. And I have with me today by the magic of science and beaming in microwaves on the Big Island. I have Richard Ha, who is making a second appearance within the month. And we're talking about something close and dear to everybody's heart, which is energy, and how can we be proactive and how can we make sure we don't get hammered when we eventually run out of fossil fuels, or they become so expensive that we can't really afford them. So, Richard, we're back. And I asked you the question before the break, which was, how do we get the word out? And especially to the kids and to our whole population as opposed to having a conference, which is, even if it's attended by a couple of hundred people, it doesn't get the word out. We have, you know, millions, a million and a half people that have to get the word on this. So, your thoughts? Well, I think what I need to do or what we need to do is talk to Mrs. E. Gay, a governor's wife, and show her the videos. Oh, okay. And then she could give us advice on how we, what she thinks, first of all, and I'm sure she's going to agree with everybody else. And then she can make suggestions as to how we should do this because she's an educator. Oh, okay. Well, I think that's an important thing. And anybody who's listening in, who can think of and give us suggestions, you know, we're more than willing to do whatever we got to do because this is probably the most important thing that I've ever seen in my whole life. As a matter of fact, when I went to the ASPO conferences, what I learned became like, Juliana, I was just minding my old business being a banana farmer. And then I got this information. I went, holy smokes. I'm the only one from here, here from Hawaii. And so I happened to have this knowledge. It's not that I want it or anything. I'm stuck with it. So much so that I was CEO of a medical cannabis operation. Some people would think that's the job of a lifetime. You know what? I quit because I said, you know, you guys are on your way. Good luck. But I only signed up for a short period to make sure you guys are good. And I got to go back to what I'm doing. And what I'm doing is exactly what I'm doing now is advocating for education. And there are many other things that we can do. And I can give you some, for instance, I'll go through some stuff fast. Okay. One is when I, before I went to the Pico conference, as a matter of fact, I was a supporter of the 30 meter telescope. Yes. For two reasons. One was education. And the other thing was economic development, because there's a whole bunch of jobs and stuff associated with it. So that's still the case. And we are talking about a cultural center, about the clouds, and a cultural center. For this reason, you know, there's a problem up in Manukia. There's too many people up on the mountain. There's too many sensitive places where people are going. Yeah. And the 20 acre site at Aleppo Haku is too small to do two services. Right. One, the primary function is to provide support service to the telescopes up there. Right. And their second mission, and this is kind of an extra thought, is to talk about culture. But the problem is, 20 acres is too small to do both things. Right. What we propose is having a culture center above the clouds at that level, but to the west. And the reason for it is because most of the traffic going up there is for star geese. I mean, there are hundreds of people that go up to look at the stars to the telescopes and stuff like that. Right. And to the west, about a quarter of a mile in, there's plenty of room out there. And if you did it over there, you wouldn't be risking the people's safety the way it is right now, right on the side of the road. And people are plucking off, you know, on four-wheel drive roads. There's just so many people up there. Right. So the culture center above the clouds can be a place where we, what I should say is, if we don't do something that respects the Hawaiian culture, the Hawaiian culture will be forgotten. And the reason for it is because it's just a small population, Hawaiians are. And basically we're an endangered species. You know, I'm part of Hawaiian. But if you put me in a lineup, nobody would even guess that I have any Hawaiian. My grandma was pure Hawaiian. Really? So we don't have that much time, you know? Yeah. You wouldn't think. I wouldn't have thought at all. That's what I say. Yeah. And all the Hawaiians are in the same situation. So what could we do to make sure people don't forget us? You know, like what they did in Machu Picchu. 500 years ago, there were Incas. If not for Machu Picchu, we wouldn't know who the Incas were. Right. Now, if you wanted to find out, you got to go get a DNA test. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, so it's the same thing. But taking a step back and trying to think about the situation we're in with energy and Hawaiian values. And then, you know, when you start to think about that, the regular folks, the Hawaiians, they were all about aloha and sustainability. Right. And that is the whole thing that will give you the roadmap to deal with this energy shortage. It's not about money. It's not about who gets the biggest house. What it is really about is sustainability and aloha each other. We cannot be fighting with each other. They're not going to help anything. Right. But you know, Richard, every time we try to do something, like just look at the geothermal, for example, you get these crowds of anti-geothermal activists coming out. So I mean, they stop everything in their tracks. And look how long it's taken them to get the 30-meter telescope approved. I'm not even sure. Has it even been finally approved yet? Or are we still fighting a battle there? No, they went through the process. They went to the Supreme Court. So they were just going through the things they need to do to go to work. Why can't, why do we have to go through all these fights? It seems like we're always fighting amongst each other. There's people that want to do the cans and then there's the no cans. Yeah. And I think it has a lot to do with the native culture. Before Captain Cook came here, we had a gift economy. A gift economy is the more you give, the more you receive. You never expected exact change. Okay. But then we were exposed to the market economy. The market economy, you've got to get exact change. And then the more you get, the more you receive. There's a kind of a conflict between the gift economy and the market economy. And that still has repercussions. But what I think we can do is to use monarchy to make sure, and the culture center is, why would we want to have a culture center out there so that we can say that moral authority of what takes place of monarchy is aloha and sustainability. That's Hawaiian values. The reason for being up on monarchy is not astronomy. Astronomy is secondary. Primary is Hawaiian value. Yeah. And then Hawaiian values just happen to be a way you can market Hawaii so that you can get more jobs. Because this oil thing is all about jobs, raising your family and stuff like that. So now what we can do is market around Hawaiian values and aloha and sustainability and kind of move off of sun and surf. Because you can do sun and surf all over the world. So we're coming up to one minute to go. So we're going to have to start winding up. So if you can continue on with the thought but understand that we have a limited amount of time left. Okay. Yeah. So let me mention that we just formed a native Hawaiian chamber. And the reason for it is we would like to have, what would make this Hawaiian chamber different than all the other chambers? Well, what we would like to do is to have perpetuate Hawaiian values and a place to have a discussion where everybody in the community can come and give the input. And then we can start to figure out how we all move forward together. Is it restricted to a native Hawaiians only or can people like myself attend? No, no. Anybody can join. I would say the requirement is that you have the Hawaiian values at heart. So it's not assigned to any particular race. Yeah. But the values, yeah? Yeah, values are really important. And on that note, Richard, we've got to sign off pretty soon. I got like nine seconds to go. So I really want to thank you for being on the show again. We're going to do this again because this is really good information that you're passing on to all of us. And it needs to get out and you need to have a place where you can project out to everybody. Thank you very much for being on the show. Yeah. And to all our audience out there, thank you very much for listening in. And this is Hawaii, the state of clean energy. I'm your host, Mitch Yuan. And we will see you next week. So aloha.