 Happy New Year Bitcoin Daily family! This is officially the first video of 2022 on this channel. I hope you guys had a great weekend and didn't get too hungover. I personally was pretty much useless the first day of the year but I am well recovered and back again to tackle the year head on and make this year hopefully the best year. So today we're going to be looking at the charts yet again at what's been a pretty boring market for the last few weeks right? Just a lot of consolidation without really any range. Just pretty much a bunch of consolidation without no sense of direction. You can see on the weekly chart we've pretty much been stuck here for about six weeks now and you'll see the bottom of the range is beginning to look something like this which is currently where we're at while the top of the range has been looking something like this right below 52k basically. So last week's close was not very bullish and the monthly close was also not bullish at all. You can see here that last month we ended up down about 19% for the month of December. In November we're down about 7%. Definitely one of the worst performing November December ends to the year that I can recall. We ended up down about 25% to close out the year. However that is all now in the past and it is officially a brand new year. So today we're going to take a look at the charts see what we could possibly expect on the first week of 2022. Take a look at some possibilities for trade setups. It's pretty much it. What else do you want? So let's dive right into today's video. Hey what's up Jay here and welcome to Bitcoin Daily bringing you guys the best tips, tutorials and ideas to help you guys become profitable and successful investors. The goal of this channel is to empower you guys the community with the knowledge and resources to help you get your wealth up to that next level. So if you guys are new to the channel don't forget to subscribe, turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos and of course if you're here watching this video right now smash that like button. Let's get this video to a hundred likes. All right guys so let's first look at the monthly closing as we just closed the month of December. As you guys can see down 18.9% not a good closing but we did hold up here at that support level that we've been you know it's been a pretty large support here for the last one basically one two three four months at this point right. So now we do need to stay above this green line here this green area here. If we fall below remember what happened last time guys that when we fall below boom we got stuck here we're below it for about two months before we're able to get out. However last time we had this long term ascending support that held us up and that's where we actually ended up getting that bounce back up and that kept the higher highs higher low intact. This if we were to fall below this time around not only would we lose that big 42 to 40 thousand dollar level that's been holding us up it's been a very critical support and a very critical resistance but we're also losing this ascending trend line on the macro level. So if we were to lose that it's basically a free thought at that point and it's hard to know where we would bounce my my first thought would be down here where we bounced last time so maybe here and if we were to fall below that we could go probably as low as this current 50 month moving average and that's sitting around that 20 thousand dollar level so that seems like it would be confluent with that previous all time high from the 2017 bull run but it would do a lot of things that Bitcoin has never done in history in its entire history if we were to see that type of drop here into a bear market. So therefore I still do think that we hold above it and as long as we do I am bullish if we drop below that 40 thousand dollar level then I am no longer bullish I am bearish and I will be probably shorting the market at that point because we could potentially free fall all the way down to that 20 that 30 to 20 thousand dollar level we don't want to see that now if we zoom into the weekly here you can see another red flag guys we closed yet again below that 50 week moving average remember we it happened to us a couple weeks ago and then the week after that we had a almost nine percent candle up on that week but then last week we got rejected very very hard from that 52 thousand dollar resistance that we've been speaking about so we ended last week below that level again and at this point right now the market is pushing even lower so we have to see if we're going to continue in this range that we've been trading on which basically has been between 45 thousand to about 52 thousand dollars so if we're going to continue this consolidation within this range then we're probably expecting to see a bounce here back to the top at some point soon whether it's this week next week or the week after that there's really no timetable on this but the longer that we stay stuck here the worse it is the reason why is because the more and more we test a certain level the higher the chance that we end up breaking through that level so if we continue to retest 46 45 k over and over and over guess what guys eventually the price is going to drop below there because there's not going to be enough people looking to buy there anymore if we pull up the volume shelves here you can see that if we lose that 45 thousand dollar level there's a drop off here there's a big gap and this gap drops off from 45 all the way down to basically 40 thousand dollars that's basically this entire green area here so if we are to lose this level guys i'm afraid that we dropped lower and then at that point risk losing that 42 to 40 thousand dollars you can see currently prices are pushing back down under 46 thousand and testing that 45 thousand dollar range now hopefully we're just getting the lows of the week out of the way that does tend to happen a lot on mondays you'll notice a lot of times mondays will be the time that we hit the lows of the week and then we spend the rest of the week working our way back up so i'm hoping that's the case here but currently the market just does not look good right now it just looks very very weak and it's threatening to fall below this level which i really really don't like now although i don't like that what i do like is that we do have a lot of support at that 40 to 42 thousand dollar range but what i'm afraid of is that if we fall below 45 we get stuck here and eventually drop even harder so that's why i rather see prices just get back up get out of this 45 to 46 thousand dollar range we need to see the prices break back out and break above 52 thousand so that we can continue up you can see that the overall trend is is still intact as we've had the the higher high higher low higher high higher low so even if we do drop to 40 to 42 it's still a higher low from the low that we set last time which is why i'm still bullish even if we were to drop down to this level and i still think we could break back up higher and set up a new all-time high but at the same time it's just i don't like to see levels going this low because there is the probability and possibility that we break this level and fall even lower and although these type of things haven't happened in history it doesn't mean that it can't happen there's always a possibility now the good news here is that it is january right hedge fund managers people with a lot of money their year-to-date return has reset today and is back to zero so if they sold off anything to take if they took any profits in november and december in order to close the year and realize those profits then they're going to be looking to buy back into the market now the thing with people with a lot of money they don't exactly buy on exchanges they like to do what's called OTC deals so a lot of times when they do these OTC deals they don't want to buy at market price they want to buy a lot lower so they might be looking at this and being like i don't want to pay 45 000 for a bitcoin i want to get it at the bottom here i want to get it at 40 000 i want to get it at 38 right so these wells if they all kind of get together and kind of plan the same strategy out and they all do the same thing at the same time they could cause a big push to the downside so that they can get the coins for cheaper and then scare you know the majority of people out and then bounce the market back up so that is something that tends to happen in markets and especially in the cryptocurrency market that is not regulated you have to be careful with and we have to be on the lookout for it so i know i've given you guys a bunch of different bearish case scenarios but at the end of the day the macro trend is still on par it's still where it's supposed to be it hasn't we haven't fallen any lower um so overall i'm still bullish i still believe we see a bounce so not only is the macro trend still intact but all the on-chain data is still pointing to the same thing still saying minors are not currently selling they're accumulating that's usually bullish all the old coins are still not selling they're still not moving it's mostly new coins that are moving and as you guys know all these long-term indicators that have called the top the cycle peaks have not yet done so here and as we spoke about last week the nvt is still signaling a buy here at its current level it's all some trade setups that we're going to be watching this week here in the market as we bring in the new year we're definitely looking at this if we see a break below 45 000 we are considering taking a short position with targets of around 44 43 42 000 so we would be taking profits every thousand dollars that it moves down and we would probably be cutting our losses if it were to bounce back up and above 45 000 at that point you can even completely flip your position and close out your short and open a long position there and try to hopefully get a bounce entry that leads you back up to that top both of these trades are risky so make sure to manage your risk appropriately make sure to use small position sizes and low leverage here other than that i really don't like anything here to enter a trade unless we break back above 50 000 for bitcoin right now everything is just so ugly right now that i probably won't take any other trades other than those two until we at least get above 50 000 i like to take a breakout above that and then of course a breakout above 52 is the most ideal breakout that i'm looking for so all in all right now you probably shouldn't be entering any trades you should just kind of be sitting back watching spending your time learning because the more you learn in the long run the more you will earn so it's best to play it safe and just wait for the market to pick a side or pick a direction here right now there it's just we're trading within this range as you guys can see we could definitely get something else like this which would be kind of a w bounce here but still it is a risky position and a risky entry so if you are taking trades make sure just to use at least proper risk management thank you guys so much for tuning into the first video of 2022 this week we will do a few more tutorials and reviews and then of course at the end of the week we will do another market breakdown and see where we're at if you guys enjoyed this video make sure to smash that like button let's try to get this video up to 100 likes if you guys are new to the channel don't forget to subscribe turn on notifications so that you don't miss any of the videos that's pretty much it for today happy new year's everyone i'll see you on the next one as always peace and love