 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We're recording our player prop show a bit early for this week because I have to fly out to Florida for the WFFC this weekend So we're talking to JJ Zachary son a Thursday to get his read on some situations He is targeting for player props and if a week number 14 and talking about some touchdown Betsy likes over a Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim sauna sign a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Join here as mentioned by JJ Zachary's and checking out on Twitter at late round QB and check out late round calm in the late round Fantasy football podcast JJ. We are into December into week number 14. How you doing today? I'm good by the time a lot of people have listened to this Baker Mayfield will have gone off for 450 yards against the Raiders secondary Van Jefferson had 120 of them and and I'm just I'm just sitting here predicting the future Stupid single game entry lineup trying to like I've toyed with it like 16,000 times and nothing feels good about this stupid game So I just wanted to be done. I want to not think about Rams Raiders ever again So I'm kind of glad we're recording this now So I can just kind of move on with my weekend and just like not think about that game for a very very long time when Baker goes for 400 The people will have known that's a good thing for sure now We're gonna break down some player props here for week number 14 But as mentioned recording Thursday, so a lot of markets are not yet So focus more on okay when markets are posted here the situations I would look at first and at that point to decide, you know Is this a low enough number or high enough number? I want to dive in we require a bit more thought on your end But I think that with JJ having had a lot of success this year in pinpointing good situations target I think it should be still a useful Discussion for us to have we'll get into that in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast right if I week 14 Embedding show with Ryan Williams is up that is up on the covering the spread podcast feed in addition to our world cup quarter final preview with Dr. Red Fang both those also up on the faddle YouTube page So subscribe on the faddle YouTube page or on the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts With only a handful of Monday night football games remaining this season faddle and visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday nights Is that an all-time high? introducing Monday night perfect picks presented by visa a free-to-play contest on faddle that gives you a chance to want to share of $10,000 in cash prizes courtesy of visa here's how it works You'll be presented with 10 questions centered around on-field action for Monday nights NFL game fans who answer the most questions correctly When they're share of the $10,000 prize pool, it is that easy the contest is now live So head to faddle.com slash free slash contest slash visa for perfect picks make your picks before Monday night That's faddle.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks no purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply void were prohibited See full terms at faddle.com visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion In any way let's turn the book now and focus on week number 14 and JJ You've done a lot of work on the fantasy side of things about how rookie players like receivers and running backs See their production increase as a year goes along and there are a lot of rookies So I think could be intriguing for a player prop speaks. I wanted to ask you can we translate that research in Rookies getting better as a year goes along over to the player prop betting markets Yeah, you know, there's gonna be one that I talk about later that I that I think sort of fits this mold to some degree But yeah, I mean if you look at a book and you see a yardage line Let's say and that line is an average of that players or a median of that players Your long outlook and it's a rookie then you probably know that the that that you should hit the over Because typically as long as the role has gotten. Yeah, at least a little bit better or even remain the same rookie wide receivers in particular They see big surges during the second half of the season, you know What I researched was more fantasy football driven But obviously fantasy points are scored via yards and touchdowns So if fantasy points are increasing then yards and touchdowns are increasing as well and usage is increasing But it's it's natural to to assume that it you know It's an inherent thing That makes sense that a rookie doesn't always Get off to a great start, you know, not all rookie wide receivers or Chris a lava Where they can just go in and get 40 yards per game right away Some of them are like Christian Watson where you know Watson was a pretty raw prospect And he was not really ready to be the number one wide receiver for Green Bay And then something clicks, you know, he gets more reps He's healthy and all these things come together and now all of a sudden he's just destroying So it's definitely something to pay attention to and to recognize that if there is a line out there That's definitely being driven by what's happened throughout the season For a rookie that is then you might want to hit the over because rookies do perform better towards the end of the season Yeah, Christian Watson is actually minus 120 to score this week despite being unbiased. Yeah, exactly Very impressive on his regard now on a similar note There are a couple guys specifically who I think are intriguing this week got James Cook and shake a con quo both guys Very effective in a small sample last week But they've had limited roles this point like a con quo just played half the snaps I believe for the first time last week James Cook played a 44 percent snap rates, you know They were very productive, but still in somewhat limited roles now That could be because they were productive that could lead to more roles there more chance this week So how do you handle spots like that where you're kind of trying to guess the trajectory of a role? Based on oh, they were productive. Maybe they get more this week. How do you handle that kind of dynamic? So I think first you have to just sort of read and see what beat reporters are saying first off And if there's some some signal there then obviously you can keep going but Also, just ask yourself. Is this logical like is is what's going on logical? And if you look at like a con quo last week, he saw a big spike But Traylon Burke's got hurt early in that game So it kind of makes some sense as to why he saw that spike, you know Devin Singletary He's not really a workhorse like he's never been a real workhorse back You know, he has during stretches, but not across the entire season and they needed they've needed another back If you look at what Buffalo's done over the last year They try to get JD McKissick and he does that you turn and goes back to Washington They go and they draft James Cook they go and they trade for Nihime Hines There's clearly this past catching element that they want in their back So they don't have or they don't think they have in Devin Singletary And so it makes sense that that James Cook is seeing more and more work And you know his receiving work has been pretty consistent now at least over the last couple of games I mean, he's he's at least a good presence in the passing game and gives them a different dynamic So, you know, I think that if you can tell yourself a story and you can answer the question isn't logical Or if you can piece these little things together this evidence that Buffalo wants to do this with their back Feel that they want to use a player like James Cook then you could lean into that a little bit more You know, I do think that someone like a con quo, you know It's a one-game thing whereas James Cook it's been more gradual when it's a one-game thing like we saw with a con quo You know, you if the line is really really low for a car when you know that train Lawn Birks is gonna be out then yeah You can hit the over and feel pretty good about that But you also have to understand volatility range of outcomes all that kind of stuff and you know Tennessee's in the spot where you know You also have to pay attention to is Trevor Lawrence gonna play and if Trevor Trevor Lawrence doesn't play then all of a sudden Why would they need to deploy a lot of 12 personnel and run their tight ends out there catching a lot of passes When they can just run the football more than likely not have to really have a back-and-forth with Jacksonville So there's all these pieces that you're really putting together And then that the question to just always go back to is is it logical, you know If if if Tennessee were facing Kansas City this week and train Lawn Birks were out We would probably feel pretty good about Chica con quo running a lot of routes But they're playing you know, it sounds like Trevor Lawrence is gonna go But just hypothetically if he doesn't go then you know You're in a position where this game is probably not that high scoring not a lot of back-and-forth action And so it's it's like why would why would he be running a lot of routes? It's not very logical So that's sort of the approach that I take with these situations And I think that reading beat writers kind of ties into to like trying to read intention on what the team is doing because with James Cook They got him involved early. He had a 56% snap rate in the first quarter He had like a 65% snap rate in the third quarter in that game He did miss out some two-minute work didn't play a lot in the fourth quarter Maybe they don't trust enough humble stuff like that but like they were intentionally getting him involved It wasn't like he just ran hot and they kept right in the hot hand like they were trying to get him worked in And I think that that kind of makes it that's a signal Yeah, it could be a signal for a beat writer signal for what they're doing, but like reading into that matters, too Yeah, it's not like earlier in this year when they played Tennessee They blew out Tennessee and then James Cook sees a really good snap chair But it's because they were in a really positive game script and the game was out of hands They're gonna get this guy some reps where you know now they're using him in the early quarters Where you're seeing intent you're seeing that they want to get him involved And so that matters that goes a long way and the concept of the game is the same too because big AFC East game for both these games the patrons and the Jets, so Cook is a guy who is very much on my radar. Let's talk about fluid situations that you're looking into for this week JJ Wherever you've seen roles shifting something like that that you may want to exploit once markets are open Yeah, so, you know, we just talked about the Buffalo backfield That's one that you can definitely pay attention to and look at James Cook I think another backfield is the Jets in that exact same game You know Robert Sala said some positive things about BAM night maintaining his role and he's looked really good You know, no doubt he had a 55% snap chair last week, but I do think that we have to keep in mind You know, this is sort of like the Joe mix and some Ajay P Rine dynamic in the way that when these backups, you know Hypothetical backups step in, you know, their competition in their backfield is not as strong necessarily So if they're competent backups like some Ajay P Rine His competition now was Chris Evans Whereas Joe Mixon was competing with some Ajay P Rine And so if they want to make some Ajay P Rine a workhorse back Then his competition is not as strong and so he's gonna have better numbers than Joe Mixon did which is why we saw what we've Seen over the last couple of weeks So it's sort of similar to that with this if we assume Michael Carter is the one a in that offense or maybe even the 1b whatever, you know Michael Carter's a better piece of Better person better player from a competition standpoint then tie Johnson is as their backup And so he's gonna steal more looks in that backfield than a tie Johnson would at least early downward Looks and ground game looks, you know, tie Johnson is a pretty good pass catcher So that's definitely one of the backfields that is a little bit in flux a little bit up in the air But I also feel like the Jets in general are sort of in this fluid situation where Yes, Mike White has played well Mike White has been fine But at the same time, I think we have to recognize that They have faced Chicago and they faced Minnesota over the last two weeks And those are two very very beatable defenses and not very good defenses and then last week against Minnesota They ran a lot of plays. I mean a lot of plays and that is not something they were all in the red zone And they were all unsuccessful. It was all exactly that's not something that's easy to maintain week over week So I'm probably a little bit lower on the Jets in general this week offensively. I think the books are showing that too I mean their their implied total is not very high. So, you know, I think it's logical to think that way Just giving their opponents and then the other fluid situation is the Miami backfield. What a weird thing that just happened last week They had like a 82 or something percent pass rate last week And you saw for the first time since they got Jeff Wilson be a trade You saw Raheem Mostert play more snaps and really from a percentage standpoint a significant more Snaps the issue is they barely ran the ball. And so it's really hard To really buy into that split last week and say that this is the way it's gonna be moving forward But it does create a lot of volatility whereas entering that week We probably would have felt a lot more confident about Jeff Wilson moving forward Going back to the Jets one you mentioned the Robert's solid quote It was it was pretty open to interpretation I would say the way he said it where he said that bam nights not going anywhere Yeah, he did not say he will still get a 55 percent snap right and I think there's a pretty key difference there So I agree I'd look at night and see okay if they open up in our decently optimistic or assume that he maintains that role That's a pretty easy spot to be out be pessimistic on it like Jim Robinson will not be active this week I don't there's any chance of that so like he's competing with but he's competing with Ty Johnson and Michael Carter still like that's That's still tough And I think if we see an overreaction to a an open to interpretation quote that could be a spot to potentially Bet some unders on BAM night, especially in a spot. Well, like you said, it's a very tough spot for the Jets office Okay, which yardage props do you think you're gonna turn to first when you're when you're looking for things as they open up this week? Yeah, so over on on DraftKings you can get Daniel Bellinger 19 and a half yards as is over under it's at minus 135 So it's not like you know, you're not getting like normal juice with it But even still I mean I still think there's a really easy bet to go over He ran the third most routes for the Giants in his return last week. He had an 18% target share in that game Philadelphia is really good on the perimeter defensively They've actually faced the 11th highest adjusted target share to tight ends this season And they face the second highest rate of targets going to the slot now the Giants don't have alternatives Not like they have like these really this really great slot receiver that they're gonna throw the ball out to So they match up wise Daniel Bellinger could be used quite a bit in this game He's hit this mark in five of six this over in five of six games since becoming more of a full-time player in the Giants Offense, so I know the juice isn't like perfect in this with this bet But even so negative game script that could be throwing a lot 19 and a half seems very very low for Bellinger I think this line should be honestly closer to 30 yards So you can hit the over there and then I've won more for you another receiving prop Nick Chubb over seven and a half receiving yards I actually think or maybe not but I did miss a Nick Chubb receiving yardage prop bet earlier the season on He had a 30 yard catch on like the first play the next week. Yeah, right, right? So I'm hoping I'm hoping you know things turn around this time But you know Nick Chubb had zero receiving yards last week He didn't have a single receiving yard But that's likely because the Browns were playing ahead in that game against Houston It was a game where they didn't need to air it out or anything But in his three previous games they faced neutral or negative game scripts against the Buccaneers the Bills and the Dolphins and in those games He saw 1848 and 16 receiving yards when this line is seven and a half against Cincinnati earlier this year He did catch one pass for only three yards But if you recall the Browns actually crushed the Bengals earlier this I do recall I bet I bet the Bengals before the Jamar Chase injury got announced. It was awesome. Love it Yeah, so the Browns crushed the Bengals earlier the season and that allowed for that positive game script So, you know, therefore fewer dump offs to Nick Chubb. This game is now in Cincinnati It's a pretty big spread. I think it's five and a half six points Just depending on where you're getting it I would imagine there's likely gonna be a negative game script or at least a neutral script I mean Cincinnati's playing so well offensively right now that you have to think that things go that way and Cleveland's really beatable in the perimeter And Jamar Chase is back. I mean you could see this Bengals offense doing really well in this game So I think they're gonna use Chubb more in the passing game as a result So I'm gonna hit the over on seven and a half receiving yards going back to the Bellinger one It's actually a really good example of what you were talking about where it's a number for a rookie set based on their season long numbers because if you look at his his full game log for this year his median For receiving yards, I believe is 22 yards So it's a little bit below that But he played his highest snap rate of the entire year this first game back from that eye injury Yeah, so he came back and had a better role and this prop seems like it's kind of based off of what he did Before that and it includes like week one where he had no targets on a 48% snapper He played double that many snaps or that that snap rate in week number 13 So it's not just because they went to OT the snap rate was double what it was one So I think that buying into him makes a lot of sense and I was trying to talk myself into him for DFS this morning Couldn't quite get there, but I think 19 and a half receiving yards so so so doable On that in that regard Okay, we just in touchdown numbers up over at fangirl sports book already for this week So you look at the touchdown markets where you see in value there? Yeah, look the yardage Props that I've been talking about have late have been great the touchdown ones not so great So I'm just gonna go back and go to a long shot touchdown prop I'm gonna say Isaiah McKenzie anytime touchdown plus 290 on fandal right now This line on other books is closer to like plus 170. So you're getting good You're getting a good number here from Fanduil Look, it's a tough wide receiver matchup for Buffalo this week They get the jets but the jets ranked top five in the NFL and percentage of wide receiver targets that go to the slot Which is where Isaiah McKenzie plays McKenzie has target shares of 26% and 15% over his last two And he's clearly been the slot guy There were some times earlier this season middle of the season where we were saying oh Maybe cool Shakira is gonna jump up and take that role well last week Isaiah McKenzie ran 25 routes And and Khalil Shakira ran five. So it's very clearly Isaiah McKenzie as the slot guy I like the idea of going after Josh Allen's wide receivers in and in this case It's the best individual matchup of the week in my opinion for Buffalo So Isaiah McKenzie anytime touchdown plus 290 probably don't lock it in but lock it in well with the jets You think about their defense their two key corners DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner are kind of like these shutdown kind of guys But they both stay outside for like they stay on their their respective sides the most part McKenzie in that game against the Patriots We're in 25 routes 20 in the slot versus five out wide So he's not gonna see a lot of sauce not gonna see a lot of Reed That's a good situation for him to be in so McKenzie plus 290 your price shopping getting good number on that I think it makes a lot of sense and like we said a big game for the Buffalo Bills That is JJ Zacharyson check him out on Twitter at late round QB find his work at late round commie You can find his podcast the late round a fantasy football podcast wherever you get your podcast JJ I appreciate you accommodating my Flight schedule for this week. Good luck to you in week 14 as you're getting set for the fantasy football playoffs We'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks, Jim. Thank you to JJ again at late round QB on Twitter I am on Twitter at Jim's son. It's all we got for this week our week 14 preview is up We also have the World Cup quarterfinal preview post to get all those by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast I mean fantastic week 14. Enjoy the quarterfinals. We'll talk to you once again Monday to preview the Patriots and the Cardinals This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network