 changing. And today we're going to talk about political warfare of the Philippines, otherwise known as China's Silent War against the Philippines in terms of subnational incursions with Carla S. Cruz, who joins us from Manila, the Philippines. Welcome to the show, Carla. Hi, Jay. Thanks for having me again. Always. Well, from your point of view of security analyst, what's the news? What's the news about Sierra Madre, for example? Oh, wow. First, okay. So what's been happening here lately is we've, Sierra Madre is good. I think that Sierra Madre has been left on its own for a while, but, and we've been able to actually resupply through air because they haven't figured that out yet. But we were able, we tried to resupply on the 10th and they had like combined everything that they've done in the last four months. So they lasered water cannon, blockaded, and swarmed. I think they're trying to, like, that's their build up, very strategic on their end. But yeah. Well, a couple of things, you know, number one is, you know, the show that you and I did a couple of shows ago was, it was the subject of an article in the New York Times earlier this week. And it was really a track down what we talked about, right? They must be watching Think Tech. And I suppose we should be watching that. Thank you. Thank you for your support, New York Times. There's more coming. We had to scoop on it. They were second. So the other thing is, you know, you gave a paper. Can you talk about the paper you gave? Sure. Sure. So I recently, we did a brown bag session, a brown bag session, a brown bag session at the Atheneo de Molina University, which is actually a partner of HPU, I believe. And the Atheneo School of Government, which is a continuing education institute within the entity, has a policy center where I do investigations. The piece was on modern political warfare and how the Philippines is actually at the center of many of these instances. It was presented to a group of diplomats, the military members of, there were some members of the Senate. I mean, there are two senators and members of the research staff of both houses. It was co-funded with the German political foundation, which has the content at an hour. They've been a partner with Atheneo and a supporter of my research for a good part of two years. And I look forward to working with them again on like expanding this, because what we found was, although political warfare has always been a means to, you know, to coerce and interfere with the normal relations of a democratic institution and democratic institutions, China has gone that one level up and taken like, let's just say, okay, an example is the UN sister cities, you know the UN sister cities arrangement? Okay, to you, what's the UN sister cities arrangement? Oh, it's diplomatic connections between cities. And so you have visitors from one city going to the other and vice versa. And it's like citizen diplomacy, if you will. Exactly, exactly. So they use this as a way to open up to a province, especially when the province has a lot of natural resources like sand and mining sites, you know, for different minerals. But because the laws here are not favorable to foreigners coming in, they go in, they sign some kind of, you know, economic participate like economic partnership. But it's all one way. So they come and they like, literally send all their workers, all their, I mean, everything's one way to teach Chinese to, and then they end up marrying. And then they end up becoming Filipino. They marry local Filipinos. Now they, this is like the royal marriages in Europe in the 16th century. Something like that. But they're not really royal. Okay. So it's like degrading our race. Can I just tell you, they are degrading our race. We're a race of beautiful people who are polite and nice and lovely and love our country. And these people are rude and they spit everywhere. I'm just saying, I can say that because I see it, right? And they're people who don't actually look after the betterment of the country as a whole. So you've seen in these, and we saw in our research that these, these provinces who have wholeheartedly made these twinning commitments come off worst off, right? And so they promise like $7.1 trillion over the Duterte administration. What did they come up with? $5 million with 4% interest for scrawny bridge in Metro Manila. And they wonder why we backed out of the bridge. That's a fake out what it is. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. So okay. So all they're interested is really is sand. So how do they get to the sand the fastest? Yeah. Yeah. I asked you before the show about the history of the Belt Road initiative in the Philippines. And I think it's worth mentioning what happened there. And they started out with it, but then the Philippines pulled the plug. Tell me more. Yeah. So we pulled the plug last week on the Belt Road. I think the reason why not just the high cost of the loans, but more so the fact that while we're an archipelago. So they would have been, it would have been very hard to connect digitally, especially because the US and Team Telecom with Meta and Google with the Pacific Light Table Network cut out. It was supposed to connect from the, from Hong Kong into the Philippines and terminate in Hong Kong. But this 13,500 kilometer sub cable from LA to Aurora here will not be having anything to do with China. So that contains the Philippines and China and the US in a very strategic way. So I don't see any value. And I think that the Philippine government also didn't see any value to be in the Belt Road. I told you my reaction was that's a really good move back out of that deal because you can't win. Anyway, so moving on to the larger issue we plan to talk about the subnational incursions, the political incursions. So you must have an idea from your research and the paper. By the way, the paper was really a detailed paper. People think you go to a university and present a paper. It's just few notes. No, no, no, no. This was not a few notes. This was a major research project and a major presentation. Anyway, so it seems to me like we ought to examine exactly what is a subnational incursion and what does it reveal about China's loan plan on you? You know, the Philippines is not the first country that China has tried to silently invade. Let's just put it that way. And China has made their ways kind of, they're very, very long-term, like 100-year marathons. And it has always, yes, it has always been their plan, but not to make the Philippines a focal point, but make the Philippines a transshipment point and a passage for Taiwan. They couldn't care less about Visayas, which is in the center of the Philippines, a group of islands, or Mindana for that matter. So this subnational engagement is concentrated on Luzon and close to the national capital, which is Manila. So I'm already, let's put it this way, I'm already dense and overpopulated place with scant resources and is all the more exacerbated because they're here. Let's put it that way, number one. So they tried to do this during the Arroyo's administration at first by doing the ZTE and then national broadband network that with ZTE that was canceled. And then they tried to set up, you know, building all these infrastructure projects that never came to. But what they've successfully been able to do, Jay, and the scary part is position people here in our BDO sector, which used to be dominated by the U.S. And it's now, well, maybe it's split 50, 50, I'm not sure about the numbers, but it's a $40 billion industry, right? It's a $40 billion industry that the Philippines could lose if China went overboard and continued the spite, like the crime and the ballastness that comes with having them here, right? To me, that is warfare because you're leaving a society worst off than they were when you found them and when you wet them. And they're like, so they're like bad house guests and you just want them. That's a great way to put it. So, you know, is the Philippines vulnerable? What I mean is, you know, you had a transition for one style of government with Duterte and now Marcos different. It's different. And that difference, you know, you can speak. I know you can speak to that difference. But at the end of the day, the Philippines, you know, vulnerable. And does China see the Philippines as vulnerable? Just trying to see, you know, opportunities here where they can take advantage of you. It's sort of like those guys marrying Filipino women, right? And all of a sudden getting into positions of power and leverage. So that kind of reveals what they want to do. But tell me how it works. You know, I think that personal relationships always, you know, you can take both ways, right? But it's the people that deal with each other. It depends on your how rooted you are in your culture, how rooted you are in yourself, and where you see yourself in the bigger picture, whether you're a janitor, whether you're a journalist, whatever part of society you belong to. If you believe that we are a democracy that we all deserve to live a free and fair life, I think you would ask questions if, for example, you have, you know, a, I don't know if I could say it's on there, but like a Chinese owned brothel and torture chamber in your neighborhood. And we're finding that this is in every neighborhood almost. Really? That's like organized crime? Yes, exactly. So cyber crime has been expanded into organized crime, international organized crime, that doesn't just include drugs. It includes gambling. It includes human trafficking. And that's that every day we're finding that, you know, these people were brought in because of the economic interaction between both countries, because they're there only wanted to talk about economic interaction. But this economic interaction was an opening to degrade our national security. And that's what we're seeing now, right? And then now it's becoming a human security problem, because these people aren't being accepted back by China. So imagine arresting all these people and then they're like, oh, well, we don't want them back. Sorry. I wouldn't want them back either, but come on. Giving you the problem. Yeah, so we have to pouch them, feed them. I said, just this is not good. It's not healthy. Is there, I asked you before about American tourism to, you know, to Philippines, but what about, you know, standard tourism, right? You know, come spend a week in a hotel, go on a tour, whatever that kind of thing. What about Chinese coming to the Philippines? Are they coming as tourists? Well, the government, I mean, I'm obviously in the defense sector, but I heard about the government trying to capitalize on this revenge tourism. And they expect about two million Chinese to come in before the end of the year. I've yet to see one tourist come in, but two million Chinese visas are being released, apparently, so $6,000 per day since September, whether they're truthful in their declaration that they want to come in as tourists remain to be seen. But I think if they do not come in as tourists and they come in as something else, I will let you know. And I hope the New York Times picks it up. Yeah, I'd be very interested in seeing it because it could be another fake promise, you know? Another fake promise, like on the commercial side. And when the Japanese were here during World War II, the data war broke out, the gardener of my grandmother was a intelligence officer. Well, that's actually my next question. In the United States, we have some strange intrusions by China. And it's been in the press and people talk about it in the institutions. One is they come to our universities and they steal intellectual property. I'm not sure you can call it espionage, but maybe it is espionage. Coming in and taking, especially defense type intellectual property. The other thing is they have these really strange, and I wonder if this exists in the Philippines, these really strange things they call police stations. So in Brooklyn, right in Brooklyn in New York City, the police found the NYPD found there was a Chinese police station and it was organized by the PRC and it was supposed to watch Chinese people in Brooklyn and make sure they told the line and maybe, you know, maybe create a little espionage too. And so the fact that they had a police station in Brooklyn is really chilling because there might have been, in fact, I think there are other police stations that need to be rooted out. This one was rooted out. And finally, what you get is like the Confucius Society. I don't know if you have that in the Philippines, where they're trying to sell on the one hand, you know, cultural points and affinity. And on the other hand, they're trying to get information from college campuses and the like. And we have seen a lot of espionage in this country and there have been a number, doesn't hit the press all the time, but I can tell you there have been a number of very serious defense weapon type espionage cases that have been tried in our federal courts. So the question I put to you is, you know, what about that sort of thing in the Philippines? Are they doing espionage? Are they trying to control the Chinese people that live in the Philippines? Are they trying to take intellectual property? Are they trying to control things politically? Talk to me. Tell me about it. Yes, they are. All of the above. And I don't think I need to go into detail because you've already detailed it. They have a menu. They just roll it out everywhere, right? But from what I see that the Philippines is trying to do that's different. Given the, I think, the great partnership that the U.S. and Philippines have had over the years that's been strengthened with President Biden and even your vice, the vice president, Kamala Harris today, you know, declared that, you know, yes, the U.S. is behind the Philippines all the way and you've had senators Wicker, Rish, and Rubio send a letter to President Biden saying, you know, we want a complete accountability of your program to the Philippines and what you're doing about the BFB Sierra Madre and the humanitarian situation that we're looking down at. I mean, that, I mean, that in itself to me will send a clear message to China that it's not like before. It's not like what you did to Australia and that's not like what you did to Italy and Germany and, you know, what you tried to do in the U.S. So it's very interesting, Jay, because this weekend there's a very strategic meeting going on where our defense, our president, President Marcos is coming to Hawaii with our defense secretary coming from Jakarta. They just had a big defense minister's meeting. He was there with Lloyd Austin and made some great pronouncements. But our new chief of staff of the armed forces is coming to visit and he's actually there right now. And that to me delivers two things. One strategic messaging to not just China but them and their allies, 20 people. And then second, the operational significance that this partnership that, you know, we do stand shoulder to shoulder with America. And the Philippines provides a terrain for America to train and better their entire system that you don't have in the U.S., right? So it's a perfect, I think it's a perfect marriage. But the choice of chief of staff is very significant, I think, to the U.S. partnership. Why do I say this, Jay? His grandfather was a Buffalo soldier who stayed in the Philippines because he obviously fell in love, but that's another story. And so he's mulatto and he, he understood, he went to school there, so he understands what it means to kind of fight with America, but he's so strong in his being Filipino because he's actually native Filipino, like from Baguio. So he's so strongly Filipino and so rooted in his Philippine, like in his Filipino values, but appreciates what we can take from America. And that's something that China needs to understand, that they don't have to steal, they don't have to kidnap, they don't have to torch people or elect few people to get what they want. It can be nice and friendly and diplomatic and we can all live happily ever after, but frankly, they don't see it that way, right? What's interesting is in the times to the report lately was that this is the first time people remember where Shishi Ping came here, talked to Joe Biden, and he needed things, he needed things. That's, and that motivated his, the dialogue with Joe Biden. I'm not sure that Joe Biden can or would give him anything, but it's a different kind of dynamic now. And the question, and as you and I talked before, not much came out of that meeting, except where maybe, yeah, right, maybe there'll be more talks later, but a query, did President Marcos meet with Joe Biden also? What was the nature of that, if it happened? I believe he met, yeah, I know he met with Vice President Harris, but they're in touch all the time. So I don't think it's about the cameras, I'm going to show you Frank with you. And Apex a meeting, if that's something that you go see your friends once a year, we walk into the house and have coffee every other day, literally, right? And so for example, we have troops here all around the year. This new armed forces is significant because the head pay comm is, Indo pay comm is our, is our, is our counterpart, right? Aquilino, the head of pay comm and our, I should say, like he's a West Com commander now, hopefully one day he'll be our, our flag officer in command of the Navy. What's his classmates? They were all in the US together. So that high level goes really deep, right? That reassurance that we're, the Philippines is doing its part, the US is doing its part, goes back to like pulling each other's shorts down at Naval War, at the Army War College, right? So I think, I think we're pretty good in that sense. We also just ended some really like significant exercises. So I don't think Apex a big thing for us. And I don't think that like Biden and Marcos being photographed together is a big thing because we always will say the same thing. I mean, we're more solid than ever. And I think at the end of the day, the Philippine military is seen as an equal partner, which was never seen before. Of course, we're former colony, right? I'm half. So I'm like half colony, half colonizer. So I colonize and half colonizer. So I'm kind of confused, but it's all right. Well, we know it's you from 1898, as I recall, for many years. Yeah. But I'm half. So this all leads me to ask you about the media, okay? So what we have here is a phenomenon where the Chinese are looking to extend their influence in the South China Sea. Will they control of it? Maybe you want to put that and maybe line up against Taiwan and, you know, use the Philippines or threaten the Philippines or undermine the Philippines innate of that long plant. And the question I put to you is, is this being covered in the Filipino press? Is this being covered in, you know, the newspapers of a Democratic Republic like the Philippines? Are people writing about it? Are they revealing it or not? I think it is significantly better now than when the last president was in power. So but this whole declaration that transparency is an innovative approach to media relations that certain American gentlemen claims that is his, you know, is his stand. It's not, right? We're just doing things right by the people now because we live in less of an authoritarian regime. And so more than just being covered in the mainstream media, yes, actually the postcard already has a permanent detail of press for brave enough to go out every single time because the people need to know. And it was interesting because the last time, Jay, on the 10th, I think, yeah, the 10th, the Chinese came out with the news that, right, as it was happening, not the October one, remember, I thought about it, right, as it was happening with the wrong times, so they thought they could get ahead of us. And then they obviously did it, right? So they didn't do that this last time. But what I'm saying is we are transparent. We let our people know. And that's why we're angry that this oil tanker issue hasn't been fixed yet, but that'll be fixed soon. And people are starting to talk. And it's keeping this government accountable. It keeps them military accountable. And we want to continue talking to our Hawaiian neighbors, our neighbors in the Pacific Islands to show that this is a problem and that we're here together, right, because we're experiencing the same thing. And it's always an information issue, right? It doesn't get to us. It doesn't get dispersed. And I think that's a clear message that we have. Like, that's something that you and I should take up and keep that conversation going with the other Pacific Islands as well. Oh, I totally agree. And let's plan to do that. But I wonder on the other side of it, you know, the Chinese are not unsophisticated when it comes to propaganda. Matter of fact, you know, that's what they do. And I wonder if they are using the media in the Philippines for propaganda to advance misinformation about China and about China's intentions in the Philippines and the South China Sea. Are you seeing that in the media in the Philippines? What we're seeing more, Jay, is actually them just trying to discredit the institutions. I think it would be too deep for them to go to say that, oh, they're trying to discredit that. I mean, they're trying to advance their narrative and all of that. No, they're not trying to do that. They're just trying to curtail the democratic institutions, you know, foundations and power and obviously in the hopes of letting the Filipinos do the trust in the government. But yeah, that's what they're doing. Well, this is pretty serious. I mean, we talk about, you know, political warfare, the silent war, the Chinese against Philippines, trying to take advantage, trying to, you know, move into every possible, you know, exploitation. What can the Filipino government do about that? And is it doing it? Should it do it? You know, what should the plan be to keep them away from, you know, your central institutions? I think we need to hit them hard. We need to hit them hard economically. We need to cut them at the knees and not allow them to trade, to use, like, for example, their own financial networks. They should use our own networks, right? We need to deport people and we need to either jail people or drown them in the sea. Like, whatever it is, they shouldn't be part of our society and we should, so we have a senator that's actually called for the twilight of these Philippine overseas gaming operations, which is, which proliferates crime, which proliferates trafficking and drugs here in our society. And, you know, I would like that people just become more vigilant, that create the culture of caution, that, you know, you know, something isn't right, say something about it, because that's not how our society is. We're not repressive. We're not silent and we're definitely not okay. What we have is a, you know, a silent war, political warfare of sorts. We have all these bag of tricks that we see rolled out on the Philippines and we hope that we'll be able to stop that as we hope we'll be able to stop it in the U.S. It's not so easy to stop it in democracy. And so we need to do today, we need to define what war means today. We need to define what an act of aggression means today. It doesn't mean that you're being shot with a gun and somebody died. What it means is for a society to be left off worse than how they found you and how they came in. If there is no value for these people to be where you are, they're doing something that is not, that is to your detriment, right? And that should be enough reason for these people to not be there. You have to know their intentions. They have to be transparent. They have, if not, that if they're not transparent, it's black or white, right? Like why are they doing this? Is it going to benefit people or not? Is it going for the greater good or not? I think it's that basic. And as it escalates and becomes, you know, more and more intense, then you define what it means to be an aggressor, what you define as warfare. But at the end of the day, if people are worse off than they were when you started, there is something really, really wrong. And you can see that the degradation of the human and the security of the human being here in the Philippines, whether by through drugs or like their cognition or their physical security is really being something that I think is a form of warfare that needs to be defined by whoever it is that defines this and do something about it. But definitely the Philippines can do something about it at all. Carla, are there others who feel this way? Other members of your generation who hopefully would take the reins at some point and work on this issue? Are there a lot of people like you? We hope, yes. I find them every day. Find them every day. Yes. Thank you. Follow me on Twitter, Jay. I think we need a Twitter. You need a Twitter. That's a thing. Okay. Carla Cruz, our correspondent in Manila and the Philippines is wedded to the American Republic at the hip, bonded to us at the hip since 1898. And we have great affinity, great historical connection. And indeed, aside from all that, you're very important to us geopolitically. So we want you to succeed. We want your democracy to be strong. And we want your generation to make it strong. And we're so happy to talk to you, Carla. Thank you, Jay. Mahalo. Mahalo. Aloha.