 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The open championship is coming up this week the fourth major of this year in golf And it is going to be a delight because both Rory McElroy and Scottie Shetler are entering in top knocks form right now We're gonna break down the odds one of those guys wins it break down the favorites break down the best betting values over at Fandall sportsbook by talking to Brandon Doola and getting his read on Royal Liverpool this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Numberfire.com my name is Jim Saunders I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire joined here as mentioned by Brandon and Doola check them out on Twitter at Kedula 13 find his work over at Numberfire where he is the senior managing editor Brandon the open championship is coming Rory McElroy hot off a win at the Genesis Scottish open I feel like this sets up to be one of the more fun open championships in quite some time. How you doing today? Yeah, I'm good. I know You know like last week you were in your glory because the golf was over before you woke up I know you don't like to watch the golf the second wave was teeing off When I got up which meant that a I got to have some three ball payouts Maybe you know around the time that I woke up and be I still got to watch the second wave so Tell me the downside in that because I don't want to be near a screen after work And if the golf is done by then I don't have to worry about it So I feel like again my approach my desire is fully optimized Well, I just I like to watch at least the final round see how things are going see if anyone's making a charge and you can Yeah, I'll just be up it When it starts when the when the final like final grouping starts on Sunday, it'll probably like six That's not talking Jim Jim. I'm not talking final group. I'm talking the final round you want to watch like I like to see if anyone's making a charge how things are playing. Yeah, you know Patrick can't let go nine under to finish. I'm a gas second. I'm a gas here. Well, yeah, he's been doing that a lot lately, but um You know, maybe it's a little bit of a better week. I wish you didn't say his name Later on that fashion, but my bad. Sorry Retract that we'll go back and edit that after the fact because I always go back and edit things because I care so much and so deeply about how this comes across but Honestly, like I feel like this I was excited for the open to begin with but then you add in the fact that Rory Won at the Scottish open I feel like to me it really sets up some like some good storylines and I feel like golf is at its best when The best golfers are in their best form and you can't really argue against Schaeffler or McElroy of how well they're golfing right now Yeah, I mean there are the the two top guys It's it's reflected in the betting odds and it's kind of crazy because of how quickly we just like Right off John Rom from that conversation. It's like, oh no, Rom's like Dust he's third at best and it's like, I mean I Think he's got a pretty big win this year not that long ago They're all kind of forgetting about but I mean, it's not like he's a complete afterthought in the betting market or anything like that But sure feels like it whenever Schaeffler's plus 650 Roy's plus 700 and ROMs what plus 1200 right now. So And then I mean rom rom's made comments about like knowing where where he is in terms of the favorites but I'm sure even he would would admit that he shouldn't be favorite, but uh, yeah, it's uh He's still very good at golf. He's very intriguing. We're talking about John Rom later on we're talking about Schaeffler, McElroy, etc to get you ready for this year's open championship in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow We are previewing the women's world cup with Dr. Ed Feng getting his read on this year's field We'll talk some team USA with Ed get his read on whether they're properly rated in the betting market Talk about that coming up on Wednesday. Also, uh, later on today over on the fandal youtube page will have our dfs preview Although open championship breaking down our favorite golfers any salaries here over on fandal.com if you want that You can watch it live on the fandal youtube page noon eastern or check it out on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Or the fandal tv plus app both for that and for this show each covering the spread each solar shot Over on fandal tv plus name is on fire apple tv and roku as well If you like what you hear subscribe to covering the spread and and leave us a five star rating on apple podcast or spotify Speaking of the us women's world cup the us women's soccer team Is taking on the world and you can take home bonus bets every time they win with fandal because right now New customers get 100 dollars in bonus bets guaranteed Plus another 10 dollars in bonus bets for every team USA win Sign up between now and august 3rd then place your first five dollar bets to unlock your bonus bets that way You'll be all set to bet on everything from total goals to player props all tournament long However, you want to play don't miss a chance to get 10 dollars in bonus bets for every team USA win Plus 100 dollars bonus bets guaranteed make every moment or a fandal america's number one sports book gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler hope is here gambling helpline ma.org Of core or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts in new york 1 8 7 70 hope and wire text open y And must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wage Only 10 dollar deposits require refundation is non or trouble bonus bets Which expire in seven days restrictions apply c-fold terms at fan dual dot com slash sports book Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc in colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee in virginia call 1 800 gambler Or if it's a fan dual dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to five three three four two In connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or business e c p g dot org slash chat in indiana 1 800 9 with it In wyoming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in maryland nd gambling health dot org and west virginia Go to 1 800 gambler dot net now brandon this year's edition of the open championship will take place at royal liver pool the second straight event at a lynx course They have not played an open here since 2014 though, so Shot link date i'd believe began in 2015 Generally could be wrong. No i'm way wrong What 2003 wow way off decade off sick anyway, um, they haven't played it since 2014 They did not have shot link data then i know that part What should you know about this course before we place our bets? Yeah, i mean i'm gonna I feel like 2003 is the the number burned in my head, but uh with the open i think last year Was the first year we've had shot link data at an open Um, we've had it for the us open for a lot longer than that, but yeah Uh, I really hope it's uh 2003 or else i'm gonna feel silly, but that's that's the number that i think 2015 is here Like data golf has data back to which is why i assume that nothing existed before then Well, you know, there's no way of knowing uh correct to this so correct What we do know is that we don't have a whole lot of shot link data From any historical Or many historical opens or any of the opens at royal liver pool Uh, yeah, we've had this event here at in 2006 in 2014 One coincidentally by tiger woods and rory mackleroy respectively So some generational wins uh there And one thing that i'll note is that this uh this play is a par 72 in those two years It's now a par 71 so just kind of take a note there I think that stuff matters a little bit, but it gets a little bit overblown with what the par is it just really Has to do a bit with more with winning score. Um And it comes down to like how many par fives there are so yes, so like it matters, but you know that's basically Not something that I put a whole lot of stock into But notably the winning scores were 18 and 17 under Respectively and in those years in in 2006 only seven golfers were 10 under or better. So Pretty pretty big separation there From the winning score But also it wasn't that everyone was just like pepper in the 15 under range Um, you know tiger was able to separate and so did rory Again at 17 under 11 golfers finished at 10 under or better in 2014 so That's kind of one thing that I like to look at is the winning score, which is not like groundbreaking, but also keep in mind Just because the winning score reaches one sort of maybe outliers number Um, that's not necessarily indicative. It's going to depend a lot on the weather Um for this week, which is always the case whenever we're playing You know in in great britain england ireland scotland would you know take your pick But yeah, that's basically uh at the top the winning score. I think it's probably going to need to be in the like 12 to 15 range Unless someone really puts it all Together and and the the conditions are are pretty calm, but you know So what do we do without shot link data to try to figure out what matters here? We don't even have like gcsAA Numbers with like how wide the fairways are how large the greens are on average all that kind of stuff So it's a lot of just guesswork And unfortunately if you dig back into those two events and look at You know, you can look at stats leading in which is sort of helpful for How players were playing leading in but it doesn't tell us anything about how they actually played so That's that's kind of a downside to that if you look at just in tournament stuff, you're going to see more of an emphasis on putting um But you know with that I chose to look at the two in tournament stats and try to find any sort of correlations and frankly Everything was pretty weak in terms of the total stroke scan numbers Um, which for anyone, you know, you can figure out total stroke scanned without shot link data That's just your scoring differential to the field but um The drive the two driving stats distance and accuracy didn't do a whole lot to explain The scoring in those two years You know, the greens in regulation was moderately Indicative same for scrambling scrambling. This is a tricky stat and for anyone who doesn't know scrambling It's just when you miss a green in regulation. Do you do you say par? um And then you know putts per green in regulation Which again is the kind of stats we're looking at whenever you don't have shot link data This is kind of a weak to mild correlation For the irons wedges in putting So the way that i'm kind of looking at that is I want some distance off the tee But a lot of golfers can get some roll out So it's not an absolutely vital stat But I would like to see some positive driving distance from the guys that i'm in on this week And then from there to sort of and this is the case for every major a complete game So if you're struggling with the driver, uh in terms of accuracy, you're probably fine Want to see some distance but other than that want to see some good complete game Um specifically with the irons and putting which is again not not groundbreaking But it's going to matter in a field this tough If we're talking complete game We should talk about the two favorites on the top of the field right now Maybe not complete game But close enough with scottie sheffler being plus 650 and rory macaroy 7 to 1 macaroy Of course winning the genesis scottish open, but sheffler still the favorite of plus 650 So when you look at those two specifically brandon Has rory done enough to convince you that he should be the favorite this week? Or do we still in sheffler because the tee to green game is so nasty Yeah, it depends on How you mean done enough for me for my model no Um because it looks the past year of data gives weight for Field strength and recency and it still views sheffler as the clear Favorite for this week for me personally I would still say I don't think so but it's more of a fear-based thing Which I try to sort of remove which is why I like to lean on the model Um so much but you know sheffler is basically a shot per round better than anyone in the field with his tee to green game Um over the past 50 rounds according to data golf It's pretty Like it's pretty wild. He's it over the past 50 rounds tee to green 3.29 strokes gained um per round with the tee to green And there's two live tour players there. So that's a very small sample and then it's rory mackle right at 2.19 um, that's So a substantial gap and yes, like sheffler's putter is a bit problematic. I know that um, but I cannot say that rory deserves to be favored uh for me Over sheffler and if I would say that it's literally just a fear Because rory played uh as well as he played last week So that's not to say that I don't have interest in rory that I think he's like has no chance of winning but You know At seven to one. I'm not there and then even for sheffler frankly. I'm not there either I think these numbers are a little too short this week Which is a deviation from what we saw last week where sheffler was a betting value for you finished top three for The 37th consecutive time. I feel like he has not finished off of the top five since april 15th april 16th So it's been a hot second there. So for once we're not seeing value in scottie sheffler The guy you mentioned before is john rom and john rom is lurking there He is currently 12 to 1 and we have not seen rom for a bit and the last time we saw him Nisaka the travelers had some shaky events, but I feel like Cyborg john rom is not as long ago as we may think it is right now So looking at rom at 12 to 1 any incentive for you to you know, quote unquote buy low on him or Is the betting market handling him pretty properly? Yeah, so That's basically why I like the model You know, I Think every now and then I should tweak it do this or do that But basically what my model does is tells me who's been really good over the past year And implies where their odds should be based on who they're playing some other course adjustments that that kind of stuff and While rom's not a value there. I haven't plus 1350 So i'm not like opposed to just really tracking him or if I don't find anything else for example I would get there uh for rom Because my model just really likes him You know, we're talking about like how long it's been since we had as you put it cyborg john rom He was t16 at the memorial when he finished second in stroke skiing approach behind just scottie sheffler and he was 61st out of golfers. He made the cut in putting that could have been a much better result A t10 at the u.s. Open with great approach play as well Scrolling for him. He was 16th in approach play top 25 in all four stroke skiing stats at the u.s. Open and Sure, he wasn't at the top of mind for the u.s. Open But that's just kind of where we are with with the state of golf where It's been so long And rom has a lot of wins this year. So I'm not quite there at 12 to 1 But plus 1350 is where my model would like him. So Um, I'd probably be fine jumping in at 13 to 1 but that's what i'm tracking very closely So let's say hypothetically we get some lengthening because odds do shift quite a bit. Let's say you get 14 Are you leaping to take 14? Is that a pretty enticing number for you where you're in fully on rom at that point? Yeah, I'd be interested to hear any cases against john rom right now. Um And I can't make any sure and if it's what's he done for me lately. It's Like boy, how quickly we forget. Um, you won the masters in april it is july Yeah, he's got what four wins in 2023. So like The calendar year alone if i'm if i'm not mistaken and like if you look at his you know his data The ball striking is there the wedge is kind of coming and going a little bit The putting coming and going a little bit, but not to the point where we need to like Just be worried He's a really good long-term putter. So, you know Yeah, we're we're leading off the discussion with chef flair and rory, but keep an eye out for john rom This week. So we're not there on the favorites. Where do you see value right now in the outright market at vandal sportsbook? Oh boy Not a good start. Well Two names that won't surprise anyone if they listen to me Patrick can't lay in zander schoffley. Absolutely And again, I'd be open to listening to the cases for why these these guys are not good plays And the thing the only thing that people will tell me is that they haven't won a major or that they quote-unquote can't win Or don't win And that's silly. Um Patrick can't lay Is what 20 23 22 um I have him at plus 2000 so 20 to 1 Mr. Cut at the genesis scottish open but lost a lot of strokes with the short game, which is Uncharacteristic for him. Uh, he would have ranked top 20 in ball striking over the full tournament with how good His driver and irons were going he's got five straight top 15s at majors without really contending at any of them what you can say is Not a good showing, but I would argue that playing well over four rounds is still A good regardless of when those rounds come it's still good to play good golf Yeah, I just don't get the case of like a t12 being bad. Is it a win? No, and I understand that but Just because someone's not finishing Scotty Schaeffler top three every every week. It doesn't mean that they're not playing well um And you know if you stick around he's got a chance. He's got a really good overall game Everyone always just talked about how bad he was in majors and it's it's getting better It's getting more solid and I think that he has the right type of game to win anywhere So I'm I'm in on uh, patrick cantlay and also for zander schaeffler One last year scottish open and then finish t 42 this year His worst finish of the 2023 calendar year again a t 42 Uh, he was t 10 at the masters t 18 at the pga t 10 at the us open Got a very complete game Uh top 15 and six straight majors and again, it's not a bad thing to be sticking around We know that he almost uh has a almost has a masters win uh to his name which You know, I think we kind of forget about because of hideki being the one to to pull that off but The thing with zander especially is if you look At his finishes lately, they're bogged down by poor around the green play And that is not a very predictive or predictable stat like week to week He's a very good long-term wedge player. So I think zander Has kind of everything going for him where the odds are lengthening because the finishes are getting a little bit weak In the exact area where you would be okay having them be weak. So Among golfers shorter than 50 It's can't lay in zander that i'm looking at and then i'm looking at john rom to see where he kind of settles in Between zander and can't lay zander preference. Okay. That was very fast. Okay. It's zander I just yeah, he's he could go out and lead t degree and he could go out and lead in putting Um, I know people say that he doesn't like have it, but he's been around enough Eventually something's going to break his way And he can get it done, but yeah Um, I think those two names are shorter than 50 to one or the the outrides. I like okay So zander shot flight 25 to 1 patrick can't lay at 20 to 1 the two outrides brand is looking at Right there or 22 to 1 No, sorry. I got one more. Okay longer shot. Yeah Hideki Oh Where's hideki plus 7000 hey Uh, he's gained strokes from approach play in 17 65 the dust now. No, I'd still be there. I haven't had 65 so it's That happens to me a lot on this it feels like but Um, uh gain gain strokes from his approach play in 17 of 19 measured majors in his career He's never lost more than 0.15 strokes per round with field strength adjustments Uh, according to data golf in the iron department over the past three majors t 16 at the master's t 29 at the pga T 32 at the us open While losing a lot of strokes putting and he lost in all three of those still good finishes there Um, and the thing that really sold me on hideki is putting is hard to track But I've done some research into it putting from within 15 feet is a pretty good indicator of long term stroke skin numbers He's a 43rd percentile putter Uh this year from within 15 feet on the pga tour I will take that If he puts a little bit positively he's got the the game to contend here Wouldn't mind a top 10 as well for hideki just just to sort of you know I don't like I don't love a lot of long shots at majors. Um shout out windham clark, but um Yeah, hideki. I think deserves some attention this week Hideki matsuyama 65 to 1. I don't know why I scrolled past him on the screen, but I did uh 65 to I know they changed the order around that's why uh 65 to 1 to win this weekend and I think that you know Between these guys you can't argue. Oh, they can't get it done. Um, you know, you can't it's like, oh, well hideki Can't putt can't bet him. Oh xander hasn't finished a major can't bet him can't lay Hasn't played well at the beginning major can't bet him like hideki has done it. He won the 2021 masters Xander has won a gold medal. I feel weird citing that constantly, but like that's a high pressure situation Um, so I feel like you gotta find something there that is at least enticing Um, do you like hideki more than can't lay at their current respective numbers? Uh, no, I like can't lay more. I like a Look, I love a good long shot. Um But the way that I kind of view it is you can do both if you split up your unit there So I would basically lean can't lay, but you don't need as much A unit wise on hideki. So that's basically how I view those Okay, so outrides are patrick can't lay 22 to 1 is xander shawthly 25 to 1 hideki matziyama 65 to 1 we have a lot of non-outrides available at fan dual sports book. Which of those are you seeing value on? Well, I'll just stick with hideki here, but um, and these are three nationality plays so you can This should help you out there. Um I never know which tab this is under I believe it's props. Okay. Thanks. It should be under groups because there's a group, right? Uh, I don't know. It's a Is it props? Yeah, it's under props. Yeah, so hideki matziyama top asian player Plus 490 unless you shortened again, but I still think it's all right Um, so 490 you're good. Okay, again really like the ball striking from him Hate the putting but the underlying data is pretty good finishing well at majors not a whole lot of competition um, which might sound a little bit dismissive, but You know byeonghyun on is playing well Sungjae can play well see who came obviously can play well, but I ran this one through My model and like hideki Um, brin and grace top south african plus 320 This one's tough. It's a it's a weird market, but I haven't plus 275 Won the live tulsa event with second in dc in may Um, not a whole lot of rounds for him, but a lot of like guesswork in this whole market Um, so with that week like group to go up against I think that it's a good number there On the plus 320 again. I have them around plus 275 And then one final one. Um, Marcel seam top german Plus 170 this is a weird one because I like yannik paul in this market as well As in I like him as the favorite But there's value on seam because it's basically a four man head-to-head With who they're thrown in there with so I think we're just getting better odds on Marcel seam Um at plus 170. So I'm good there Even though it's going against the favorite in the group for me. The value is there I'm sure you've been grinding Tape of tiger christiansen. Is it tiger or tiger? I don't actually know what the pronunciation would be there I'm assuming tiger given he's a golfer, but um grinding keager christiansen tape to decide if there's value on Marcel seam No, but I did double check Marcel seams pga tour profile page for the pronunciation and it is seam So I thought you'd want to know I salute you for your efforts again those nationality bets branded likes Marcel seam top german plus 170 branding grace top south african Plus 320 Hideki Matsuyama top asian at plus 490 any final thoughts brandy before we close up shop for today talking betting for the open championship A lot of ways you can go um with everything it's it's one of those where it You know, it's tough because with majors it feels like the the realistic pool of winners is pretty small but even within that there's Probably 20 30 names that wouldn't astonish anyone so there's still a lot of ways you can go um, and I would just say kind of keep an eye out um on how things shift and be open to kind of you know Either getting in early or waiting depending on the kind of what you feel but um Hopefully you can get the right number and i'm really tracking again john rom this week Especially like fluid markets you do see a lot of movement during the week. It's not just after things open where things move So check back later on see if you if there's a person you're close on You know refresh every now and then see where they settle in sounds like rom is the the prime guy Brandon is focusing on there That is all that we have for today on covering the spread as mentioned We are back later on today. We'll be talking about dfs for the open championship Live on the fandal youtube page new and eastern tuesday also up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and the fandal tv Plus app so check out those fandal tv plus on amazon fire apple tv and roku And uh the fandal youtube page of course as well find us here on covering the spread brandon Thank you as always good luck to you with your bets for the open championship and i'll talk to you again in an hour and a half Sounds good. Take care Alrighty fine brandon twitter i could do a 13. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. We're talking women's world cup tomorrow with dr Ed fang that will be a blast as well We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network