 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. Welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. As always, it doesn't matter where you're at, as long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So well, as we left yesterday, I was looking for at least a retest of around 4,000. We closed a bit above that, a little bit, not much. We don't really know what to expect from the numbers this morning. As everybody now knows, they were horrific. Seems like, at least from the action yesterday, more than likely those numbers were starting to leak out early across the fruited plain. And well, we've got, what, down 2.5% on the spies today, which is kind of about the norm. But do we have a low in yet? And the answer is, I don't think so. There's a handful of reasons why. The first is that I wanted to see some kind of low in the Dow. The previous lows have come in at over 1,000 on the Dow being down. So maybe we get the rest of that on Monday or early Monday or early next week. That is one thing. We're looking for something like about 18 billion shares to blow out the lows. Right now, we're doing about 7.8 billion. So not even half so far. So the volume really hasn't picked up. There are some stocks out here that people are looking at that did blow through the lows on lighter volume. A lot of self-serving is some other things out here that make me think that we could have a low, but we're not quite there. Are a lot of self-serving downgrades as the ones that I'd give them. The cows left the barn award for now that they are down to 25% of their high. We've got Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and a bunch of other people throwing gasoline on the dumpster fire that is the stock price of these. And generally, they only do that when they want to buy it themselves. There's not a lot of reasons to do it other than a couple. One is to buy it. The other one is to get a market where they can cover their short possessions. And is there a week that goes by? I don't bring up Jesse Livermore. I know in the den I do all the time, but on the show maybe not so much. But I always remember him, one of the better passages of the book where he was stuck in some kind of commodities trade. When he was trading in the late 1890s and probably to about 1935-ish. You had some stocks, but there are about maybe 200 tradable stocks. Right now, I think there's over 6,000 stocks that trade more than a million shares a day today. So we have a much better selection of different things to get into. There weren't that many back then. They were a handful of steel stocks, a handful of coal stocks, a handful of railroad stocks, and the most, well, at least in the 1920s, the biggest tech stocks of all time, Motorola and RCA with the advent of radio. But he was stuck. And I can't remember exactly where in the timeline it was, but I have a feeling that it was in around the 1920s or so. And he was trading commodities. And I think he was trading weed or corn, one or the other. And he was stuck in a where he tried to corner the market and someone else that outmaneuvered him. And so everybody thought corn wheat pretty much tied together. And everybody knew that there was no way they were going to let him out of a position where they could probably bankrupt him. So he was in, let's say he was in wheat, because I can't remember the story, but it was wheat and corn. So let's say he was in wheat and he had all these contracts or futures in it. He was going to get crushed. So he took what money, little money he had left, went to his wife, got all the jewels, hawked everything. And this started to sell the bejesus out of corn because he was in wheat. And everybody thought, hey, maybe there's some horrible weather coming or maybe it's already come or everything else. And they started to cover their long positions or short positions, whichever he was on the other side. And he actually made a market by creaming another one. And it's not uncommon to see big stock operators, which is what they were called in his day. Today we call them the Wall Street Banks. And so I'm always a little reticent when they come along with a lot of help. Kind of reminds me of the government, we're here to help you. Yeah, yeah, right. I'm the big Wall Street guy, I'm just here to help you. Can I borrow your wallet and keep it for self, self, self, safekeeping? Just in case anything would happen to you. Just let me borrow your wallet for a while. Yeah, they tend to be all light, sweet and light, but almost always they have some kind of ulterior motive, ulterior, yeah. And so I see a few of these stocks out here. These guys are kicking in the teeth when they're already down and drunk in the gutter and thinking they're probably either covering or they're thinking it's time to go long. But for the most part, it's not that way. It's just kind of a broad brace cell. Now we can think of a couple scenarios. One is this is the third retest of 3850. We haven't quite gotten there yet, but I think that certainly is a possibility. I dislike trying to play long positions against a low, which has not been retested, it's fairly close. You're probably going to see 80%, when we were 50 points off the 3850 lows. I think you're going to probably figure out if you went back through history on the S&P or any of the other indexes. If you got within, do it like a percent or half, after a fairly large move, I'm going to say it's probably 80% of the time. You at least go back and say hello to their little friends down there. And so even if it only lasts a second, maybe it only lasts in the futures overnight. I'm still suspecting we get to that 3850 level. And to me, that would be a triple low. And if that low holds, it'd be fairly significant. If it fails, that opens up 3350. So I think it's going to be a big week next week. We were thinking, or at least I was thinking that maybe the markets would hold together until the 4th of July and then take the big nose dive. We didn't last that long with what is probably the most terrific news the market has seen as far as the CPI. Pretty much everything back to 1980, the malaise of the Jimmy Carter year. Well, back there. Be back in a minute. 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Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's daily market newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. 100 points on the S&P cash. Down's off, was that right? Let me go ahead. Yeah, off 100 points on the S&P cash. Down's down 719, Nasdaq's down 364, Russell's off 54. Why I'm not bullish on gold here, we did have quite the turnaround. I still suspect that if we find some kind of low, gold could still find 1776 or 1775. I think we have a lot of people going after gold, getting into cash today, a lot of other things. And those generally don't last very long unless there's an overwhelming issue. And for gold, with the dollar up and everything else, it's very tough for me to see with probably a percent and a half higher interest rates coming before the end of the summer that we're going to see gold break out. But I've been wrong on some other things. I know a lot of people are along it. And I think right now, the short term, you're probably right. But I still suspect this thing is not breaking out until it goes and washes everything out at about 1775 or so. So we shall see. But I think maybe this is one of those things where it is kind of a one day deal. And especially when we go into next week, we'll probably have a much better idea. So what else do we have to do? OK, let's do a little history and then we'll move on. It is history repeating it on this day in 1858. Really the first really big technology expenditure was started. And that is two ships headed out on what will become the first operational transatlantic cable. One ship from England and one ship from the Americas. They met in the middle of the ocean and started heading back to port on both ways after connecting each side of the cable. It only lasted a handful of days. Technology still wasn't up to the point of understanding both the science and the methodology. Not so much the methodology is working with that the products available at the time to make a cable that wouldn't get water ingested over time. And I think it worked for about 10 days. There were some thoughts that that some believed that they put some people have been paid to put nails into it. They did find more than a few into the cable, which let water into it. But there was still even at this time no real science to figure it out. It would take after the Civil War to try this again. At that point, they did have at least some scientists start to look and get a cursory idea of how this all worked. And the next one worked for about five or ten years after the Civil War. And then, of course, they continue to make them better and better. And now we've got cables that have been in the ocean for more than 60 years. The work is good as the day they were put down. We have much better equipment to actually lay them to. But, of course, most of them are all fiber these days. Never can have enough fiber. But that's it. First big, really big, high dollar technology and a failure to on this day in 1858. OK, let's go ahead into some other stuff that we are looking at. And some questions of the day to go back here. And we got a little bit of a bounce. Yeah, I would still love to see the 3850. And I think the risk is extremely high until you get that retested. Let's go ahead and look at the usual suspects today. Microsoft looks like it's coming back down to retest its previous low. We did get into this gap hire that goes back to the 23rd of May. It had 33 million shares on the upside. We only have about 18 million on the downside right now. And if you look at the extreme low, the May 20th low, you had 40 million shares. So you are coming back and finding some lower volume. That's on the positive side of the market. We to to what else have we have self-serving upgrades and downgrades, Netflix and Dock U. Netflix is down a little bit today. Volumes, not all that exciting. You do have a low at 162.71. And that's on 18 million shares. You got eight, almost nine today. But, you know, if you got back into that candle and I would love for that to happen next week, maybe we get a nice run to the 4th of July before we take yet another turn lower. But so far, not so bad to Amazon, which we'll take a look at here. It's split, not quite working out as people would thought. But again, fairly light volume in Amazon. Previous lows on May 12th had 132 million shares, 100 million shares on May 24th. Today, we've got 58, 59 million shares. So there isn't a lot of juice behind this. It actually charts looking fairly good for making a potential three three attempts at a low and maybe they maybe things are better or turn around faster than we think, but really not so bad as we look at it today. A lot of people have been talking about IBM over the last few days and talking about it. It's pulled back, you know, a lot of good things happening on the quantum computing front, especially in Europe. A lot of discussion about it, not a bad looking little hammer out here for IBM today. Is there anything that really jumps out at me? No. The big problem I have with IBM right now is the April 21st tie at 141.88 had almost 10 million shares. You spiked it for a day on June 6th on half that volume and you're back into the trading range. So I'm not as sanguine on thinking that this is a time yet to buy an IBM. We have a request for a little bit of oddball. Don't you knock it up with a negative words? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? Always put the negative waves, more reality. Always put the negative way. Well, we won't be negative. We'll be positive here. Did I get that right? Or BX getting here. Red box. Yes, there's always a bull market somewhere. And actually, there is one that is higher today. That red box entertains at 1470. Given all that, about half of that back still on the positive side. 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Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. As we return, a question to take a look at Roku, the May 12th low at 10 million shares at 7512. We're in about 6.2, 6.3 million shares. Probably going to come in around 8, maybe 8.5, which would connote that we're probably still going to retest the 7512. I think a lot of these out here gives an indication. You actually had a 14 million share low on the 24th of May. Two, that you're kind of into already. Again, like I said, I'm not horribly bearish here. The odds just are, though, that you retest significant lows. In this case, that 3850 area on the S&P cash before you go higher. And there's like about an 80% probability we're going to do that. So could we bounce here? We could, but my fear is that you bounce for a day and you're right back down the 3850. And I would rather wait and hold my breath and wait for the whites of their eyes at 3850. Look at the volume there and then make what I think is probably a much better risk reward decision than out here. Apple, AAPL for Rick. Rick says, I saw what you wrote in the Tech Insider. Anyway, I was saying about how problematic that the right to repair was for Apple. I think I did that on Monday. And it could cost up to 10% of their business, which is fairly big. But I did cover it in the Tech Insider. But on a week ago, on Friday, the first state in the nation passed a right repair bill. And there's a lot of stuff kind of like that going on. On Tuesday, I think it was, the EU passed another bill stating that Apple would have to have some standardized charger for their products. And Apple, after fighting it for two years, finally capitulated on Tuesday saying, yeah, they would have a USB-C connector for the phones. I don't know if that's really that big a deal, other than the fact that they fought it for so long. But when you're looking at these lows, they are not bad. This is not a chart that I would mind buying if we just go and have one more drive in the S&P back to the lows. Right now, we've got 56 million shares. That's going into 137 million share or low. So I'm not going to get incredibly disappointed. I know we have on the, what is it, the 20th, the 20th? Let's see, where is it at here? Yeah, the 20th, we've got the June 10th Vacation Day. We've talked about how characters of the market, if not directions, change on three-day weekends. So we're going to get yet another one this month. I think this is the first time we've had it, right? Yeah. So we'll find out what happens on these three-day weekends. But certainly, maybe we get a little bit of a rally back into July 4th and then maybe that rally, maybe not as big as this last one. And then we go drive for lower prices. But right now, this isn't making a lot of charts that make me feel like jumping off of a bridge or anything. But certainly that 137 million shares, 56. Oh, we've got a caller. We're going to go to John and Philly. How are you doing today, John? Here, I'm doing very well. Thanks for taking the call, sir. Give me a full report. Yes. I would like to ask you to share your thoughts, please. An option trade setup going into next Friday, a week from today, June 17th, the quad-witch options expiration. We had a huge build-up of put-buying, of course, from March 29th. We're getting more of that here yesterday today. We have five trading days left to go until options expire. Do you see the potential and what are the parameters you'll be considering in purchase and doing a very short-term call option purchase playing for a short squeeze rally into quad-witch? I'd like to listen to your thoughts so that I can compare notes with the things that are percolating in my mind. Well, historically, if you head down into, as far as we have already, generally, into options expiration, even if it's going to bounce, you almost go into the Friday before you get the bounce. And I think you can remember a couple of times I jumped in like 11 o'clock in the morning in some massive reversals. And those tend to be kind of those days, right? You get into maybe Wednesday this week, maybe Thursday or Friday or next week, I mean. And generally, if you're going to get a reversal after you've been hammered down, it is late into the week, maybe even the Friday of expiration itself. So I think there's a good opportunity for that. Again, I want to see a test of 3850 before I start thinking about it, though. If we continue to see very light volumes here, we're probably going to have a very nice setup. But today, I don't see a whole lot of people deciding to get in front of a steamroller and lay down going into the weekend. So maybe in the last 30 minutes, maybe we lose another 30 points. Maybe we open up at 3850 Monday, or maybe we get a little bit of a bounce and then come back down on Wednesday. But generally, the lows of that week, if it is a down week, which is very rare, like 80% of the time, it's an up week for options, expiration cycles. But if you're having a down week, it's almost always takes at least through Wednesday before you see a low. So I'm going to say what kind of barriers here, yeah. I appreciate you sharing those thoughts just to essentially repeat ideas percolating in your mind. I do in fact recall an infrequent, but enough occasions over the past five years, in which going into an options expiration cycle preceded by lots of foot buying, that anywhere between a four hour to two or three day trade into the options expiry Friday, having seen SPY call options in a very short term timeframe, bit out of the money, increase in value as much as five times. So of course, predicting that at right at this moment in time, I would hazard never to do, but I am looking for the setups where something like that possibly occurs. So we'll look together and see if we can find something or see if some opportunity does in fact present itself. But I would just lastly say I wasn't thinking about doing anything today on that for sure. Now, wait till you see the whites of their eyes. Thanks for the call. Thank you. We'll be back in a minute. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets, Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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No. I expect it will auger in the last, I don't know, 15, 20, 30 minutes. I don't think that there are a lot of people that are long on margin, but there are probably a few. My guess is there are still some people that probably are significantly long and didn't get on the bounce. They said that we're going to probably sell and they didn't. And maybe this will be enough to force them out. So maybe we get more volume at the very end of the day. But right now, it would have to be extremely intense. And I don't see it with the way that the volume is going. Right now, we're at about eight and a half billion shares. And the last major low down there at that 38, 50 level, although we pierced it before and came back into the trading range, was on about 18 billion shares. So I'm still suspecting we have something fairly low. Now in the Q's, we had this double gap out here to 280. That's the May 20th low on 91 million shares. Today, we got 55 million shares so far. So let's say that we get 72, 73-ish. Still going to be fairly significant for the Q's. But I think we have, like I said, I think we've got one more either blowout before the end of the day, one more really significantly lower day. Now maybe it takes to Wednesday next week. My guess is if we don't get it by Wednesday, then the market will probably start moving back up a little bit. But I don't, you know, we've got a big gap down. You should see expanding volume, not contracting volume. When you look against the Q's on the days up from May 26th, you had 59 million shares. You got 55, 56 on a big gap down. So I'm not that incredibly bearish out here. But again, we need to see how the market actually tests those lows. And for the most part, I don't see a lot of reasons to trying to get out in front of this and speculating which way it's going to go. Because I don't think that's speculation. I think it's a bet. I don't, I think we probably should just wait and bite our times if you're thinking about buying a low. If you're absolutely committed to the end of the world, that's interesting. But I don't think it's useful at the moment. 877-927-6648, if you want to call in this. But no, I'm probably just for the end of the day, I'm going to probably close all my screens and probably not talk to anybody, not watch anything on TV, just watch how the market closes for the last hour and see if there's anything. And of course, greet everybody here Sunday night when futures back open back up, because my guess is they're going to be pretty wide. Yesterday, I kind of had a scenario involved where I thought maybe we would have had this overnight and a blown out in the futures, and then opened up with some decent numbers. The numbers were horrible and it just got worse. But what else can you say? There isn't a lot of visibility at these levels, but there are some stocks that I would love to buy and a lot of them don't have a great deal of volume today. Question about PLTR from Ronald. Yeah, again, this is kind of a summertime trading that sets up, which is you're not going to have a lot of volume on the downside. People really trying to push these things to zero are problematic, but this actually looks like it's just back to support here on eight bucks. And a fairly decent company with decent profit over the years and in the future, probably doing fairly well. I don't see any reason to buy it today, but if we did have some kind of decent low, come in mid next week, and you wanted to hold something, I'm not buying it for the squeeze into Friday. But if you were looking for finally a chance to come back, this does kind of look like it's coming back into what should be support right around that just eight dollar or just under eight dollar level, but not a lot going on in there. Question about the SMHs. Even with what was really fairly good news from AMD last night, talking about how they were expanding and even Taiwan Semiconductor talking about blowout earnings, it wasn't enough to hold these SMHs up. We are though with about three and a half million shares going back into this low of May 12th that had eight million shares. So let's say we end up with four and a half million shares today. That's still going to be almost half in an ETF, which is pretty amazing. We're not quite into that bar yet at 2115, but if we got some kind of overnight blowout and volume was light, there's where I might start buying calls. And again, I probably not going to be playing a lot of this stuff with anything that I can't trade 24 hours a day and get out of instantly and have fairly limited exposure. Equities are still very problematic because you're taking a great deal more risk the entire load when you can limit your risk with options. So I'm not a big fan of jumping in front of that proverbial steamroller into even next week. Like I said, I'm more thinking a very targeted sniper approach to picking off very specific stocks in very specific sectors, but it's hard to get all that excited about lower prices here. I know how horrible this sounds and what the headlines are going to read, but it's not that bad. We had some other questions in here. Google and Tesla. Take a look at Google L because that's what everybody trades, right? You're back together. You're back into a candle that had about 1.9 million shares with 1.3. Social media still has all its own problems. If you were looking to buy this next week, a possible low could come in around 2180, 2175. You do have a double gap. These things are like magnets and I suspect that you're going to get that at least tested. So we'll look for that, but you had 1.9 million shares up. You want that to come in there and test it with like 1.2 and maybe that starts a little ABC. I'm not wanting to be in that sector myself. Question about Tesla, TSLA kind of coming back. Like I said many times over the last week or two weeks, this is always a company I looked at is about $40 or $60 of absolutely true value. People are trying to pay for the next 50 years of earnings on this and there are going to be a lot of people competing for these and these guys creating their future. They missed on getting their truck out with the Fed of Ford F-150. There are a ton of new cars with a totally electric cars coming out. So not a fan. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors Looking at buying dog, D.O.G., says, Mr. Show, so far though, brochures short, we're so close to what could be a fairly decent low that I'm not interested really in chasing a low. If we had heavier volume, then I think that would really matter. But as we went through the beginning of the show, there are so many of those stocks that don't have heavier volume, especially the bigger stocks that are going to matter on the indexes. Now, maybe we get those when we test that 3850, but I'm going to wait until it tests it. I'm not going to predict how they will hit it, but I'm pretty sure with about 80-90% confidence that we're going to test 3850 next week. And if we don't have any volume, then maybe we get a fairly decent bounce. Probably going to be late in the week, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. But that's about it. I don't think that there's a lot of reasons to get too far ahead of ourselves. If you're short, then you can stay short. But if you don't have any positions now, not a big fan of trying to chase these things down after you miss the entry point, there's always going to be another trade. I've heard somebody else say that. And I'll wait until the next, as I said earlier in the day, and I'm waiting for a burning bush. I don't want some kind of a namby-pamby kind of close signal. I want a signal that really is bright and vibrant, because that's what you should get with kind of market action that we've had like we've had today and through yesterday's afternoon. But that's kind of it. So when you can, not when you have to, we will see you here Monday. Same bat channel, same bat time.