 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesandtrader.com. Nightly wrap-up show, everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a good trading session. Very, very aggressive start to the morning, then kind of no man's land, a bit of a break ahead of tomorrow's more CPI inflation data. And that's kind of kind of what we start the session off. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for spending a few moments with us. All we do is ask if you can like, share, subscribe, all that stuff, and we can hopefully continue to bring you bigger and better value. So look, the last couple of days, you know, there was really a big surprise that the euphoria finally got to the tipping point. If you traded Friday's session, you kind of saw the big, you know, really, really huge reversals in names like SMCI, you know, really, really big move there, or Friday's highs, names like NVIDIA, really big reversal of Friday's highs, you know, that you could go through pretty much the whole list AMD, pretty much any single semiconductor name. So that really was in the surprising part. If you've been watching kind of this broadcast for the last several weeks, yeah, we talked about this. Eventually, the euphoria was going to end, gravity was going to kick in, and eventually anybody who's kept on just buying FOMO off the top of the range, well, you saw what happened, right? You saw exactly what happened, or as we're saying, it's happening. That's exactly what's happening right now. We are in kind of a really big, aggressive back test of what we've seen now in the last couple of days. The question is, well, is this the start of something more? Is this finally the start of the bubble aspect of every single rally that we've seen for the last 25 years, and the way that we're going to end exactly the same way? And I think that's a little too early, a little too premature to kind of talk in that direction. I think it's much more constructive to talk about levels and what the bulls and the bears need to kind of take control of those levels. If you guys remember about a week ago, we had this really big move down one day that Dow was down like 500, 600 points, and as it was down 300, and it gave us a line in the sand here, right? And the line in the sand was this 433, 65 level on the QQQ, and that's the rising 20-day support. If you look at the rising 20-day support today, it put in a higher low from the last week's channel, but it still tested the 20-day moving average twice now in the last week, week and a half, okay? That's going to be our line in the sand going forward. Guys, write this down. You got 433, 65, okay? That is going to give us a bigger clue, more of a case study of is this indeed the start of the quote-unquote bubble, or was this just another calm, aggressive, sometimes violent pullback, all that into a combination into the blender and to see what happens next. Again, I'm not going to speculate. I don't think anybody could speak definitively what they think is going to happen next, but there is an obvious rotation out of the high flyers. Matter of fact, if you look at today's high flyer list, or at least the stocks that had been high flyers, they're predominantly semiconductors. You have a little bit of wingstop here sprayed in here, but you have predominantly semiconductor names, and they were the ones they were taking to the woodshed. Again, this is the group that led the rally higher, so you have to assume when gravity kicks in, this is going to be the group that's going to get taken down first. If you look at every single one of the really big high flying names, they did give you a really good case study and potential pivots that could confirm in the future. Let's talk about some of the names. NVIDIA obviously is the biggest one because this one led the market higher. As you can see here in the last two days, it lost a five-day moving average, it lost a 10-day moving average, and it closed right above it. Now the 10-day becomes kind of a big deal. If you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply, demand to demand, you can see here, I would stop perfectly on the 10-day moving average. The 10-day of NVIDIA is the line in the sand going forward, whether it's tomorrow, whether it's the next day, or whether it's never. But at least we have a point of reference here. Look at AMD, right? AMD is kind of the same thing. AMD had this big move, inverted hammer, which is a sell signal, came down to a 10-day moving average. Again, this is the line in the sand. You can go through pretty much every semiconductor name. It's going to show you exactly the same thing. Where the curveball came in today was not the heavy selling in the AMDs, the semiconductors of the world. Heavy selling came in today on the other fang names, right? The other magnificent seven. What was the last time you saw a move like this on Meadow? Meadow was down today a lot. Meadow was down at one point about $30 on the day. At one point it lost the 20-day moving average. It got back above it, and now we're going to watch the lows of the 20-day. I'm assuming if the Q's lose the 20-day, so will Meadow. I'll look at, for example, a name like... Let me see what else I can give you a point of reference to. Meadow was kind of like the big deal. If you look at the names that got beat up, right? Beat up for the last three, four weeks, they all rallied. The theory behind that is, well, the money came out of the ones that were really, really good, taking the market higher, and it went into the have-nots, right? Google, second day in a row, it rallied. Apple, second day in a row, it rallied. And Tesla finally had a green day, although it put in an inverted hammer. Again, inverted hammer is usually not a good thing. The point of the matter is, you can make a very, very... You could make a compelling argument that this is a bullish case or a bearish case. Well, here's the bullish argument. The bullish argument is, yes, while the high flyers are resting, the high flow now is going to go to the have-nots, the trailers, right? The old leaders, the Teslas, the Apples, and the Googles. Maybe, maybe not, right? The bearish sign of this is, well, the money's coming out of these names. It's a temporary fix. These stocks have not had the light of day for the last three weeks, even the last two months, you can make an argument. This is just a knee-jerk reaction. This is a temporary situation. This is a Band-Aid on his severed head. This severed head has stole the severed head. And it's a very, very good combination as well. But at least this point is we don't have to guess. Right now, for example, Tesla is sitting in a range. If you guys remember the last time Tesla sat in the range, with the last, you know, for the last month or so, and it came out of the range and gave us 20, 25 points in three days. So I don't care how long Tesla sits in this range, because we know it's going to get back above the 5-day moving average and continue to debt-cad bounce on Apple out of Google. Or it's finally going to get back to the bottom of the range here and not only confirm the daily chart, it's going to also confirm the weekly chart, which is sitting here and building below this linear aggression line and below daily supply. And that's a very, very big deal. If I'm a betting man and I'm not, I probably guess in the next couple of days, Tesla sees the lowest risk of the highs. But hey, that could change that heartbeat, right? I have no problem trading the upside of this thing as well. Again, I'm not here to be right or wrong. I'm not here to gauge risk. I'm here to collect data and trade on the channel that the market is confirming, not the channel that I want, that the market is confirming. And that's exactly where we enter tomorrow's session. Again, you can see here, Tesla's gotten rejected back to bad day off the 5-day moving average. And also Tesla's held the bottom range now four times a row. Something has to give here, right? Something really has to give here. And I'm going to wait patiently for it to see which side actually confirms. One interesting setup potentially for tomorrow is ARM. And the reason why I say that, tomorrow I believe ARM has a lockup period which expires, which basically means insiders can sell stock. 20 years ago, this was considered a free trade. This is a free money trade. What I mean by that was, 20 years ago, when you knew a company was going to come out of their lockup period, all you had to do is short the stock into the close. You woke up the next morning pre-market, the stock is down $3, $4, $5. That changed about 10 years ago. And now it's a 50-50 shot. I've seen stocks come out of lockup periods, come out of lockup periods, trap shorts in the morning down $2, $3, go red to green and take out the previous day's channel. That's on the table. So tomorrow I'm kind of watching this thing from both sides. If it tomorrow washes out in the morning, washes out in the morning, starts going green, I'm going to start looking for ranges to take it back to the upside. However, on the other side is if it gaps up for whatever reason pre-market and they trap shorts pre-market and it goes red later, then I will be looking at today's range to see if this thing has more legs to the downside. The coolest part, what I did see about today's session was kind of like the anti-trade on the analyst recommendation. This was kind of a big clue today about what was going to happen with the market. You had NVIDIA upgraded this morning by Mizzou and what happened was NVIDIA got sold off initially about 30 points. It came back, it did very, very well at some point and then it came all the way back again which basically tells me this is the first time on the upgrade they sold the stock that's not usually a good thing. This morning also SMCI got downgraded and it will show you the pivots in a second. This thing went down 100 today. The market is setting up in a very, very delicate way. I think the bears right now, just in the last couple of days are obviously showing a lot more control than they did probably in the last 14 months. What I'm seeing from this point, considering we already know what our line in the sand is on the Q's, this 433.65 level, I'm seeing here, at least from early indications that the bears know they have a good hand. They're just waiting to kind of borrow a term from the poker world. They're kind of borrowing time. They want to see one more card coming on the river to see if they actually have the strong hand. That's why this 20-day moving average is very, very strong. Let's talk about today's pivots. Today was really aggressive right from the word go. The problem is after the first 10 minutes and it was great. The first 10 minutes was phenomenal. The market kind of went into a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow's CPI, which is understandable, a little annoying, but hey, is anybody going to really, really complain after catching one of these pivots? The problem was, not really a problem, but the situation was that all three of these pivots went at once. I trained personally in the video today. If you traded today, Tesla, excuse me, if you traded today Square, that was great. If you traded today SMCI, that was great, but literally all three went at the same time. This was the pivot here on NVIDIA 865. It builds below, it can flush. NVIDIA got killed. Absolutely killed on that 865 break. If you see it, look at the 60-minute view. Here is the 865 break. Here is the 865 break. This thing just got absolutely... I'm sorry, here it is right here. It got absolutely destroyed. It went down about 30 points really, really quickly and started ramping up. It actually went green at some point, but this was an absolutely phenomenal trade. SMCI was exactly the same thing, right? SMCI was exactly the same thing here. SMCI 1090 held back-to-back these. If it builds below, it can flush. The damn thing went to 1025. Incredible move here. Square, 8185 and 8329. To the upside, two big levels. Nice move. Really, really nice move on Square. As you can see here by the 60-minute view, it got above this whole channel here. It got above this, the 8130s. It got above the 8330s. It went all the way to 84. Really, really big move there as well. Other than that, that's it. Nothing really happened for the rest of the day. AMD, we put it out pre-market. 205, 60 needs to build to flush. By the time the market opened, AMD was 201s. I don't think anybody traded it. Boy, oh boy, you really need a lot today. You had NVIDIA, you had Square, and you had SMCI, and everything else was kind of just up and down, up and down. Nothing really mattered. So that's it, guys. That's it. Tomorrow, a very, very pivotal day. We got CPI data coming out at 8.30 a.m. And now let's see if the bears actually do have control or was this just a minor two-day blip on the radar for the bulls. Tomorrow we start the resumption back to the upside. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great night. And with God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.