 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network One of the more anticipated UFC cards in quite some time is finally here UFC 300 is tomorrow a couple of main events a lot of good fights and a lot of fun to break it all down We're gonna do it today with Austin Swain getting his read on the two title matches Other spots he likes and much more to get you ready for UFC 300 then later on today We'll talk to Austin Cass about EPL match week 33 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research join here Kick things off by Austin Swain check them out on Twitter at a swing three find his work at Fandall research And of course over on the heat check talking USC each and every week They're on the Fandall research podcast meet Austin. Happy USC 300 to you. How you doing? I'm doing fantastic Jim, you know, I got to give credit to credit where credit is due to UFC This is the deepest MMA card. I have ever seen I can't I couldn't believe it could get deeper than this one very first fight up On the card usually rookies debutants people We don't really know we got former champions like recent champions within the last eight years So these guys are this card is loaded top-to-bottom. I had a great time previewing it earlier this week And I can't wait to talk about it with you too. Do you have a fight? You're most excited for this weekend. Well, see that's a great teaser because what you and I talk We'll talk about the two title fights today We'll talk about some other stuff But I don't really have maybe a great betting angle like a super strong betting lean in Austin's fight of the night Which also happens to be for the BMF title belt. Um, you can guess will be MF stands or Google it yourself That's all Jackson from Pulp Fiction is wallet. Yeah, yeah, and that fight's gonna be insane I'm gonna preview that on the heat check later today We'll talk about that pretty pretty in depth from a stylistic perspective, and I think that's my favorite I think it's everyone's favorite. We can't wait to see just engage you max Holloway square off of that belt I think the issue is that now I already need an extra screen to watch the Masters now I might need a third or fourth or fifth one to watch Pulp Fiction during work. So This is detrimental to my production and if people have issues with what I get done today Blame Austin will dive in to USC 300 here with Austin in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast on Monday Tom Vecchia will be with us to break down the NBA's play in a tournament talk about betting that with Tom on Monday So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find this show on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus as mentioned later on today on the Fandall research Podcast feed Austin will be breaking down USC 300 both for betting and for DFS So find that on the Fandall research podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify Austin we're to talk about the Card here in a second and talk about these specific fights, but because it's such a big card We've had betting markets on this these fights up for a very long time And the concern always is that a more mature market tends to be a more efficient market So are you seeing value out there still despite the fact that we've had these fights posted for a while or has most of that Value dried up Yeah, it definitely has dried up a little bit Which you really should consider is a better before going nuts at this card and taking my advice because it's not You're not getting the best of the number and you value bet NASCAR using a model I tried to do the same for UFC the small difference in implied probability can be a huge difference between Showing value not showing value and it's important to get the best of that number and in a lot of cases We haven't it's it's very interesting I haven't laid a bet since Tuesday when props came out for on most domestic sports books And it's I just for whatever reason, maybe it's good fortune None of these lines have moved against me in this particular way I haven't had one money line or prop that is now moved against me and man I said man, I wish I waited it looks like things are generally trending in the same direction as me That's not always the case. It makes me feel really excited going into a big card like UFC 300 That's the case you get Jamal Hill in the main event He was available a couple weeks ago for about plus one 30 odds 42 ish percent implied now 48 percent implied right now at the number he sits on fan duel Algemaid Sterling could have been had a month ago for minus 115. He's now minus 180 So big big jumps and gaps in in a market this mature It was a New Year's resolution of mine Given that I started using a model trying to do this with implied probability to dive into these cards right after the UFC cards On Saturday get into next week get better value. I've had a significantly better start 2024 to 2023 Doing that so it's it's huge advice that I would give to anyone That is diving in trying to value bet really any sport, but especially UFC So we'll be picky for today because as you said these markets are mature and the value has a lot of it has gone away So as always when you're betting a market closer to you know first tip opening bell Etc. Etc. Make sure you take into account the fact these markets haven't picked over a bit But hopefully still some lingering value out there So let's talk about the first of the two title fights on this card Yan Zhongnan taking on Zhong Wei Lei Zhong is the big favorite here at minus 500 on the money line So a clear favorite here Austin. How do you see this fight playing out? So it's not the most desirable fight to me from betting perspective I have to pick this carefully because when you just start this fight women's strawway title fight divisional trends of women's strawway a lot of decisions And so then you're going into some of the variants that comes with MMA judging tight rounds both of these ladies Kind of mirror different strengths of each other I my model when I ran it has yang with a pretty convincing result as you'd expect given her money line 69.4% of the time she ends up winning But and I've got the fight 65% likely to go the distance But those numbers actually show value on Yan Zhongnan at this implied probability I really just can't get there when what Zhongnan has anecdotally struggled with is a lot of what Wei Lei can do very well Yan was controlled for nine minutes 21 seconds by Mackenzie Dern She got stuck underneath Karlo Sparza actually ended in a TKO with elbows in the second round Wei Lei is just coming off a fight where she landed six takedowns in over 16 minutes of control time really the ones susceptibility what we've seen from Wei Lei Zhong has been power But Yan doesn't really provide that either 0.13 percent knockdown rate She's actually coming off her first career knockdown in her last fight If you expect lightning to strike twice against a pretty durable customer in Wei Lei Zhong My model would say there is still value here because I'm so bullish on this fight to go the distance on Wei Lei to go To buy decision. I've got it at plus 180. It's plus 185 on Fandu I've got it at plus 150 but something I know about my model It can really struggle in these three versus five rounders because of the bulk of the data I take in is for a three-round fight I try to adjust it, but it's probably more accurate that the model is saying it's plus 150 for Wei Lei to win And this fight to be go at least three rounds You look at the alternate market on round prop betting on Fandu Sportsbook, which is I love Fandu They have this catalog of things you can do Alternate round betting Jim if you look Wei Lei Zhong to win in round four round five or buy decision is plus 100 So I'm not even showing value against that number I don't really have a specific lien here in this fight even though I expect Wei Lei to win and she posts a lot of takedowns Significant strikes per minute. I love using her in a DFS setting over in Fandu DFS contest But I don't know if I have anything to to wage her on here Okay, so let's stay away here for the first title match on the card now Let's talk about the second one Alex Pereira taking on Jamal Hill You mentioned this earlier on Hill is shortened quite a bit now plus 114 whereas Pereira sits at minus 140 to win this match on the money line of Fanduels sportsbook any value stand out to you in this one Austin So this is kind of the polar opposite of that one where I've had substantial action on Hill now for weeks since this matchup was Amount I feel so great about my assessment of this even though my model is not particularly helpful in it because it's so One-dimensional both of these guys are just insane kickboxers They don't really wrestle or grapple at all my models giving a lien to Pereira for quote-unquote grappling upside because he has one Submission attempt against zero for Hill in his entire career It ain't really happening and why I love Jamal sweet dreams Hill He's plus 114 on the money line right here Fandu I got him at plus 125 But either one is fine because when I look at the distance component distance striking component of this model My model loves Jamal Hill to win this the significant striking differential in this fight I don't know if you remember this Jim, but the very first UFC podcast I did for Fandu of any kind was the heat check We were talking DFS that very first card had Jamal Hill on it as a prospect on the prelims We were talking MVP candidate in DFS that week. Those gaudy peripherals have never gone away 7.31 significant strikes per minute 54% striking accuracy. He landed 239 significant strikes in his last fight against Pereira's coach Clover Tashara So his volume his accuracy he showed no durability issues so far The only reason he's not the champion is because he tore as Achilles early last year He's now made that recovery since he's back 100% and I believe that based on the timeline I talk a lot about how much where my model is different I'm actually really in line with props in this fight if you go to the method of victory He was 2 plus 200 to win by knockout. I've got him at plus 210 He'll is plus 650 to win by decision. I've got plus 595 so I'm very close on the two props He doesn't really have a lot of submission danger I'd rather just take the money line and I still think plus money is very acceptable here as mentioned That is plus 114 right now Fandals sportsbook for Jamal Hill to win this fight taking on Alex Pereira I know the Achilles data when it comes to the NFL and it's pretty grim there, but I'm curious what it's like for UFC Is there data on? return Outlook for for fighters coming off of such a gruesome injury Yeah, I can't actually think of another recent Achilles injury a lot of times you see ACLs You actually see a lot of broken bones in UFC whether they be elbows or Unfortunately like Chris Wideman or Anderson Selva legs at times from throwing leg kicks I can't think of another fighter towards Achilles. He didn't do that in the cage. It was playing pickup basketball So I don't really know. Yeah, I don't really know what to expect from Hill It is a brutal injury But I will say I think his style works in his favor if he needed more power in his legs for wrestling or grappling I think it would be one story, but he was a southpaw He's not super mobile at 205 pounds as is by one Most of his talking is with his hands and that's why I think he feels so confident here And I feel like I'm gonna get a pretty similar version to what I've seen before All right So we're like in Jamal Hill on the money line plus one for a team right now for that one over at Fanduels sportsbook But as mentioned 11 other cars and 11 other fights on this car Let's begin things with the money lines Austin. Which other money lines are you targeting for UFC 300? So it's kind of odd that I'm telling you to go to UFC prelims when this fight could absolutely headline it may defend at The apex Jessica Andrage taking on Marina Rodriguez in the third to fight up on the card here You tell we've talked a lot about value that's left the station. This one is not quite there for me She was my Jessica Andrage was minus 125 on Sunday It sucks that she now sits at a larger number minus 140 But I'm still showing value and I've got her minus 155 to win I I'm still of the belief and my co-host on a YouTube show. I do Maddie Tanner laugh to me I think Jessica Andrage is the one straw weight that might be in the tier of Wei Lei Zhang as far as well roundedness power Athleticism I think she could be the second or best straw weight in the world and then she's taking on Marina Rodriguez here Andrage is just 32 She's at a five-fight stretch in 2023 that she had that she came out. She said she was paying some divorce bills It's kind of the ugly reality of the sport is that you know They take more fights in order to be able to pay their bills Maybe not the most prepared to actually win them and that and that can happen a fighters have admitted to it And but when you saw her back on a full camp in our last fight against McKenzie Dern Four knockdowns in just 53 significant strikes landed the power was out of this world I think the biggest theme of this fight is well roundedness Jessica Andrage has a plus 1.31 striking success rate That's not quite as good as Marina Rodriguez plus 1.88 But Andrage has that second pitch that's change of that secret weapon that has given Rodriguez trouble She lands 2.45 takedowns for 15 minutes with 54 percent accuracy. So she's very efficient wrestling We just saw Rodriguez seed over 12 minutes to Verna Jandi hobo last year in control time The magic number is three here Rodriguez is winless in three fights where she's landed where her opponent has landed at least three takedowns I think Andrage can beat that three takedown mark and make it number four What does the model do for alimony narrative? Like what's the what's the bump for alimony in the UFC betting model? You know, I have a recent form input And it's actually penalizing Andrage quite a bit for a few losses that she so alimony is a negative input then It's a negative input But the real the reality is Andrage was also facing top five girls in the world when she was fighting and losing So it's not exactly like it's a horrible stain on her type of loss That would have me concerned about recent form when she's dropping back outside the top five here to face Rodriguez Okay, so Austin likes Jessica Andrage minus 140 over Marina Rodriguez on the prelim card despite the fact that Andrage gets a downgrade for the alimony narrative here this week Which are the money lines? Do you like at Fandall sportsbook Austin? So I'm looking at an underdog with my second one here It's actually two fights down the road Sadik use have taken on Diego Lopez if UFC had a rookie of the year award I undoubtedly think it would have gone to Diego Lopez. He is non-stop fun on nearly three days notice He almost took the unbeaten record from Mavsar of loyalev ended up losing a decision in that fight But then he had two other wins inside of two minutes And this is now a fight for him to potentially enter the rankings at featherweight when one of UFC's deepest divisions I just don't know if he's ready and and his stats can kind of tell you exactly how he fights He's a ground fighter, but he's gone over one on takedown attempts so far So not really good at getting it there on his terms 37% striking defense is there to be hit 42% takedown defense to me is the big red flag here because he's willing to go to his back He's willing to give up control time to his opponents hoping to get a submission off his back But as you advance in competition guys are better at jujitsu those tricks those those poles those arm bars They're not quite as effective and I think Sadiq Yusuf is one of those well-rounded guys where it won't be that effective He's never been finished in nine UFC fights He has three finishes of his own including a submission against Don Shane is and the gap in striking success rate here Couldn't be much more stark for guys around the rankings plus 1.39 striking success rate for Yusuf negative 2.24 for Lopez I think Diego is a submission off his back or bust in this fight Even with a huge input in my model, which is actually topologies community rankings because I I'll admit I don't know everything technically about UFC Lopez is an overwhelming public sentiment favorite to win here I still got Yusuf at minus 115 and favored in this spot because of his stats because of his efficiency Because of his level of competition I do think he should be favored and weirdly even though I know the attention is likely on Lopez this number hasn't budged all week It's that right here in this plus 116 plus one one 120 number Looks like it got a little bit better overnight But I still feel very confident in Yusuf and think he should be favored Okay, and that is the Yusuf money line taking on Lopez plus 120 depth of the prelim card for this week Let's talk about some props Austin. We're using value in the prop market for this week So we'll go up onto the main card a lightweight title eliminator between Charles Oliva era Arm and Sariyuki and heck of a fight And I really do think that there's a good way to back Charles Oliva era given the stylistic approach that he takes He this guy's a car crash every time he gets in there He's been get one in done inside the first seven and a half minutes in his last four fights And that's kind of how olivera rolls. He's got this massive knockdown rate He's the UFC's all-time leader in submissions But he doesn't really win minutes. It's a little bit of what I was talking about with Diego Lopez He's plus 184 on his money line But if you go to his double chance odds if you scroll down a little bit on the main page of Fandall His double chance odds to win in this fighter plus 240. It is a decision that I made to back him in this way I got a little bit better of a number, but I still like plus 240 My model is really far off where I'm favoring olivera to win here outright But I do think if he does win it'll be inside the distance because arm and so you can better control wrestler We'll be able to have that top position But olivera that what this number saying is that it's about six percent that he's gonna end up winning by decision I've got that number of four point two percent. I think it's even lower. It's effectively zero in my mind So I like taking olivera on this market rather than taking his money line Charles olivera, it's weird that he's a huge underdog here because he looked great last July He's only 34, which is still in the analytical prime input in my model I'm expecting olivera to win inside the distance 48.9 percent of the time again Very little with decision equity versus are you can to win inside the distance 22.1 percent of the time? I don't know if any if you heard UFC raised performance bonuses in this for this guard from $50,000 to $300,000 that is a huge jump and these guys are gonna try to be going for finishes from the opening bell Makes me a little trepidatious about this next prop that I've loved all week But I don't think it matters. But if they're going for finishes, I love olivera in a car crash type of environment here I'm gonna take him as at this number a key red flag for me entering this fight I mentioned olivera has 13 submissions most in UFC history Armand so you can has never found an attempt in nine fights could be a difference could be the mismatch for olivera to Secure a sub and get one of those 300k bonuses Okay, so that's olivera versus are you can right now olivera by knockout or submission is plus 240 now you comment Now the car crash stuff with the age curves because I love age curves as someone who does a lot of NASCAR and Formula 1 stuff What is like peak age for a UFC typically it is exactly 30 years old Which makes it nice even in round and anytime anytime before or after that I have an input in my model that regresses sometimes as in a fight early on the previews you go up into the 40s And it it's really punitive, but it's 30 years old is the peak prime in the median age I believe for a UFC champion is around 30.3 30.4. So it's right at right on that number So the Jimmy Johnson ding is in there for a couple fighters for this week any other props you mentioned one that makes you a little bit Uncomfy. Yeah, what was that one? So I like this a lot better before the performance bonuses got boosted up But I still do think the pace in the tempo of this fight is going to work in our favor It's the featured prelim between Yuri Prohaska and Alexander Rockets Rockets coming back for the first time since 2022 had one of those ACL injuries I met I mentioned earlier and Yuri Prohaska is not an easy return fight former champion in this division Just fought Alex Pereira for the championship. That's why Pereira has the belt right now The prop I love in this fight is Yuri Prohaska to win by decision. It's six to one on Fandall I think that I want to fighters people to remember because we're gonna fixate on the bonuses but Excluding Bo Niko who's minus 3500 the largest UFC favorite ever and looks like he's gonna break the record for that There are 18 other fighters in three-round fights on this card 15 of them have been in five round fights at some point since the COVID break these guys are usually champions their main event players They usually have a different tempo that now they're gonna be shrunk down into three round fights It may be tough for some of them to adjust and go as hard for a finish or as hard to the opening bell There's always risk doing that in a five round fight. So the tempo might be a little bit slower I know the performance bonuses out there But if you don't get that finish in a couple of minutes, it's probably not coming anyway And this card's also littered with experience So my model was showing a lot of value on decisions Which is a little scary again because they just raised the bonus yesterday But I love Yuri Prohaska by decision in this fight when you look at how Alexander Rockets is fought Inside of the rankings inside of them. He's had just three point four four significant strikes landed per minute one total takedown It's very little activity. It's hard to win decisions He's been squeaking by on very tight margins But if you look at Yuri who started his UFC career in the rankings 5.31 significant strikes per minute very accurate with them 53% Some might take issues with Yuri's defense, but Rockets is not this frantic powerful surgical finisher He's much more of a point fighter and I don't think that's going to get better coming off a huge layoff Which analytically is not good for win probability It's coming off a layoff as long as this but I also don't think it's going to do favors for his volume or his explosiveness I think we get a typical Rockets crawl here of Prohaska squeaks it out on volume I love six to one in this fight. My model has it plus three thirty five So one of the most valuable props I've seen this week Okay, that is again Yuri Prohaska to win by decision six to one right now Fanduil sportsbook taken on Alexander Rake it's that is Austin Swain Make sure you check him out on Twitter at a swing three again find full breakdown of this card and also the DFS DFS lineups for this card on the Fanduil research podcast feed later on today Austin I appreciate the time as always Enjoy all the fights. Hopefully lives up to the hype. We'll talk to you once again soon Okay, Jim sounds good. Enjoy Pulp Fiction, buddy. I will very much so thank you appreciate that again find awesome on Twitter at a Swing three we're in talks an EPL with Austin Cass here in just one segment first The Masters is now underway and Fanduil is giving new customers an offer unlike any other to celebrate because right now new customers Get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed with any $5 bet That's 150 bucks to use on outright winners round leaders longest drives My favorite three balls and much more plus you'll get paid instantly when you bring home a major win this major season So don't wait get a Fanduil comm and download America's number one sportsbook and swing for some green out of Gusta Must be 21 plus or 18 plus in DC and president select states first online real money wait for only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see terms that sports book Fanduil comm Fanduil is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or was a fanduil comm slash RG in Colorado DC, Iowa, Kentucky Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois Tennessee Vermont and Virginia call 1-800 next step Or tax next step to 5334 to in Arizona 1-887-89 7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800 9 with it in Indiana 1-800 522 4700 of his a KS gambling help out common Kansas 1-800 777 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling help out Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler net in West Virginia 1-800 522 4700 Wyoming hope is here mr. Gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 327 50 50 or 24 7 support in Massachusetts Or call 1-8 770 hope and why or text open why in New York now as if it wasn't enough to have USC 300 and the masters both going on this week And we've also got a full slate of you at or a full slate of EPL to kick things off on your Saturday mornings Let's bring an Austin cast now a fan to research a senior editor there to break down EPL match week 33 Austin Welcome into the show. How are you doing today? I'm doing well, Jim. How are you? I am delightful excited to have a great sports weekend on tap not just those things but also selfishly NASCAR on Sunday, which should be a whole lot of fun now Austin 10 different matches on tap for match week 33 So let's start things off here with the traditional markets. What are your favorite bets there at Fandall Sportsbook for this week? So I really just have one bet that I like for traditional markets this week And it's in the first match of the weekend Saturday 730 in the morning Eastern time. I really like Over three and a half goals for Tottenham Newcastle We've talked a lot about Tottenham this year about how fun their matches have been just from a neutral point of view in terms of watching We've hit on overs and a few of their matches. I think this should be another high scoring Tottenham matches both of these teams are pretty attack-minded Newcastle were excellent defensively a year ago, but injuries have really doomed them this campaign They've conceded the seventh most expected goals according to FB refs XG model Tottenham have been giving defensively as well. They've allowed the ninth most XG Usually when Tottenham matches are fleet free flowing with a lot of chances as I have been for most of the year It's due to how Tottenham play but Newcastle have been very similar They're just as committed to attacking even in spite of all their injuries and Newcastle's last seven matches against teams in the top Half of the table. There's been a combined 34 goals, which is 4.8 per match All but one of those matches went over 3.5 goals. So they've been very attack-minded day Regardless of the situation score they push forward and attack Tottenham is the exact same way I think this could be a wildly entertaining match And I think we're gonna see a lot of chances for both sides. So I like over three and a half goals Austin did I undersell how good this Saturday morning is because that sounds awesome? Like it sounds like pure chaos and I'm fully in it. It should be really fun. Yeah, I Can't wait to walk it. So yeah, I mean my fear is that there's a bunch of chances and it's still like 1-0 But I think we're gonna see a lot of chances and just based on their track record, I mean The stat with Newcastle, they're 34 combined goals and there are seven matches like it's crazy It's gonna be a little basketball like at times. We're just in the end Okay, so we've got your kids as your alarm clock and you're grateful for that this weekend Because a Newcastle versus Tottenham over three and a half goals minus one away right now Sportsbook can also have the masters on your second screen there too. So a very fun a Saturday morning there Let's talk some player props Austin. Were you seeing value there for this week? So I've got two that I'm backing here. The first one is in the coastal Palace Liverpool match at Manningham on Sunday This is a huge matchup for Liverpool Basically every matches for them the rest of the way as they try to win the title They're just had a really disappointing 3-0 home match last night in the Europa League So they should be ready to go for this one I Think they'll bounce back Saturday against Palace and that puts me on Lee's Diaz to score or assist a minus 115 That's a market. We've really leaned on heavily this year and a big fan of it Palace's overall defensive record isn't bad at all, but they've had road versus the league's top teams They gave up five goals at Arsenal 2 at Man City 3 at Villa 4 at Newcastle 3 at Spurs Diaz has eight goals and four assists and 25 league starts He has a goal or assist in three straight league matches and I like him to do so again If he starts and that's a big caveat Lineups will be out at 8 o'clock in the morning on Sunday I think he'll probably start but I'm not gonna place this bet until I see that he is for sure I think there's a chance Diego Jota another Liverpool attacker is back healthy Which could mean Diaz ends up as the odd man out I'm not sure but like I said, I think he'll probably start but I'm gonna wait to verify that for sure Okay, that is for the Liverpool versus Crystal Palace match Luis Diaz minus 115 to score or assist But Austin is saying to hold off on that until Sunday morning 8 o'clock a.m. Eastern is when those lines will be out Wait until then to place it if Diaz does one of starting because there's a chance He is not in that starting 11 any other props you like across match week 33 Austin Yes, so Saturday at 10 the Sheffield United Brentford match I like even Tony as an any time goal scorer at Reliable well, yeah, I know we usually do go or assist with him But that that's pretty steep this week because they're playing Sheffield United We've discussed how bad Sheffield United are the numbers say they're one of the worst primarily teams of all time Maybe the worst they have a negative 52 goal differential so far That's 22 goals worse than any other teams. They've allowed 82 goals in 31 matches That's 15 more than any other team this season in 15 away games. They've given up 35 goals So I say all that to say Brentford should score their minus 265 to score at least twice Tony's the main man for them and you should be on the end of a few chances on top of that Not only does he take penalties for them, but he's one of the best penalty takers in the league Which is obviously good news for this market. So I like him to score a goal against Sheffield United And while minus 135 isn't the most fun I think it's more than fair given the matchup and Tony's ability value is value So we'll never say no if it's a good value bet now Tony got off to that crazy hot start after a suspension ended And he's been in a bit of a rut. Is that just the fact that Brentford's maybe not up to you know The standards a lot of teams they face now get a good match up or what do you think has led to the dry spell here for Tony? I would say part of it is probably Just the schedule. They've had a pretty difficult schedule. They actually gave him a day off And then they scored three goals at Aston Villa. So maybe that's not a great look for him but They've had a tough schedule and I think some of it might be fatigue You know true didn't play for so long and then they threw him in there And he was basically playing 90 minutes of your match for a few weeks in a row So the fact that they said I asked him to last weekend tells me maybe he was a little gassed And he also got called up to for England during the international break and got to play for them Which is awesome for him, but just that's usually a stretch where he would get some time to rest and he didn't get that So yeah, I would say this probably fatigue and a mix of fatigue in their schedule. Okay. Well, we are back to old reliable Reliables I get this week a plural because we got new castle in there over three and a half goals for that Tottenham matchup Minus 108 Louise Diaz score assist minus 115 and our old friend Yvonne Tony to score a goal minus 135 as Brentford takes on Sheffield United that is Austin Cass check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass find his work at Fando research Austin. I appreciate the time. It's always enjoy a fantastic weekend. We'll talk to you once again soon Sounds good you too, Jim. Thank you. Alrighty, and that is all that we have here for today and this week here as well on Covering the spread want to thank you all for tuning in throughout this week back again next week as mentioned with Tom Vecchio Breaking down the NBA play-in tournament and his thoughts on that from a betting perspective on Monday big Thank you again to Austin Swain for swinging by breaking down UFC 300 check out his show on the Fando research podcast feed later on today to get you ready for both betting and DFS for that car. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can also find Fando research on Twitter at Fando research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets this weekend. Have a fantastic weekend. We'll talk to you once again on Monday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network