 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 25th of November 2019 and the time has just gone 1120 GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European training session today Once again, the US China trade story remains in the news I refer to some positive news on both sides from the US side Robert O'Brien, who is a US national security advisor Claims that it's still possible for a trade deal to be the phase one of the trade deal to be wrapped up between now and the end of 2019 and On the Chinese side, the Beijing government have announced their intention to introduce tighter tighter rules and regulations and restrictions in relation to intellectual property rights And this is something that's been of major importance to the US because every now and again China talks about buying more soya beans and more and more Pork from the US, but ultimately this trade war was never really about just China buying more and more agriculture goods off of the US International property rights is one of the major areas of concern for the US So if genuine progress can be made on this front, this is the sort of thing which could kind of push things along in terms of actual progress it's It's going to be it's likely that we're going to be talking about the US China trade story probably non-stop between now On the middle of December when the US are are still scheduled to have the another round of tariffs being imposed On Chinese goods, but you know, we keep hearing regularly that both sides, you know, are keen to make a deal By the dealers, right? So it's likely to you continue around but I think the into the IP Intellectual property story if it has a if it makes genuine progress is the sort of thing which can actually Bring the deal forward So this is so it's been a fairly quiet morning all of that What I'll now do is take a quick look at the week ahead look at the major Nonsense on a corporate and economic fund and then for that I'll take a look at some of the major markets So starting off with the week ahead on the weekend article can be found on our website If you go to see some markets calm under insights and news analysis You'll find the you'll find a bulk of the articles of myself on the way fellow analysts right that are posted to the site So looking at you tomorrow. We have fully of figures from top styles Over in the US. We have third quarter figures from Dick's Sporting Goods On Wednesday, we fully of figures from Marston's the end of the pub crowd here in the UK Well, the more important piece of information this week is the US third quarter GDP durable goods and core PC e-numbers They are at lunchtime on at lunchtime on Wednesday Mind you know the US has had some decent growth In the first quarter at 3.2 percent. I grew up by 2 percent in a second quarter We've had three interest rate cuts from the Fed of Reserve So the US so those especially the latter two industries cost are highly unlikely to actually trick the adult to be economy So in the grand scheme of things for as far as you know, big developed Western economies go US is still doing fairly well So and the last week for the Federal Reserve are giving off the impression that they're not going to be cutting rates They're gonna be keeping policy unchanged for the time being Speaking of major policies on Friday, we have Eurozone CPI figure So this month this would be the inflation figures for the month of November We're already in November at the moment. This is the monthly European Central Bank with began restarted They're government bond purchasing program and if not too long ago referred in the last few days refer from Christine the guard the new head of the ECB and she started talk about it you new European mixed policy and It really kind of says a lot when the person is in charge of monetary policy is that it's calling for fiscal policy You're fiscal policy being tax government government spending government taxation So we can says a lot about when this, you know, how much how much the person in charge of monetary policy can do if she's calling for a fiscal policy fiscal expansion Taking look ahead towards the back end of the week We also have third quarter growth figures from Canada and on Saturday at the weekend We're going to have the official figures from China in terms of manufacturing and non-manufacturing So what I'll do now is take a look at some of the major markets starting off in a few indices as I mentioned European economic markets have gotten off to decent decent start On a color they got a positive sounds coming from both the US and China in ratio to trade So we can a wider view That I say six seven weeks is then the foot's been brought you've been pushing higher Obviously that the highs that we've seen today have failed to take off the highs so far of a Early November we are pulling up pushing in that direction and if you do kind of unless you move on higher from here We could be looking at retesting this area here at the highest of early November Just which you come into play in around 7,430 odd actually we go beyond that you could be looking at everything this area here in around 7,470 Any move to the downside could find some support from say this blue line here They fit the moving average which comes to play at 72 84 We can see in a few occasions that metric acts as both support and resistance not long ago And metric has been important in the in the past and makes it more likely it'll be important in the future Although there are no guarantees It's only really if you kind of take out this area here in around seven thousand two hundred could then we be good Then we could then we begin to get a bit worried. I think you know what? Maybe we're gonna continue in the kind of wider trend that that's been in play since July But if you hold above seven thousand two hundred we could they you know We could easily see the market retesting seven thousand four hundred and beyond I'll take a look at what's going on over in Germany and not the German market is in a far better shape than the British market Not too long ago the German market hit it twenty two month high So get an indication of how strong the German market is the tax and we can see here the last two days The German market has been edging higher So if we do look to get a push on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting last week's time If in around thirteen thousand three hundred and seventy four there they're about and if you go beyond that we could then be looking at a The next area of a big area of potential resistance Turkey would play it in around here a level last thing in in late 2018 and that is in around thirteen thousand six hundred If we do in their hand managed to turn over the cells if you take out Last week's the law of late last week in around just north of thirteen thousand We could be looking any back down toward thirty thousand or this area here in around thirteen thirty twelve thousand nine hundred rate R80 and if you go beyond below that We could be looking at head down toward this zone here in around twelve thousand eight hundred chances We can see that area act as both you know support with resistance on a few occasions and support and one So we've you know that metric has been a path that region has been born in the past So keep an eye for keep an eye forward in the future should the market have a fairly sizable sell-off The US markets are in a far better shape than their European counterparts. So start off the Dow Jones Wasn't that long ago that the US markets around all-time highs and we're calling the Dow Jones open around 27 thousand nine hundred and fifty two They're there abouts, which is in a minor way I was to do far away from the old-time lives that were achieved back in the last you know middle last week So if you press on there from here, you could be looking at targeting twenty a thousand big cycle Big psychological number if you go beyond that you can be looking at targeting the recent all-time eyes 28,160 odd and if you go beyond that, you know, it would be a bunch out of territory. So tennis keep looking towards numbers like 28,200 300 400 so on and so forth But you know buying of the dip has proven to be a very popular strategy in recent weeks and months So if you do see any move to the downside, we could see fresh bars potentially end of the fold So if the market does manage to turn over on itself and push it a little lower Support could be found in this zone here in around 27,500 or down to about between 27,500 and 27,400 And even if you break below that would still be still the wider bullish trend will still be intact So we could find some support from this blue line here the 50 moving average which comes to play at 27,132 and we can see in a few occasions metric is actually that support in the past So it could be irrelevant in the future I'll take a look now what's going on on the S&P 500 and to be honest It's a fairly similar look in the situation whereby it was not long ago. The mark was at no time high and we're calling the market higher today So, you know, we're at too far away from you know in the near term. You could be a set could potentially be posting record highs So we're currently expecting the S&P 500 to open at 3,119 there there abouts and the recent high has been in around 3,133 so, you know, it's plausible in the next session or two We could be looking at our fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 So the sentiment is clearly bullish So if you kind of look if you take out the recent record highs, you could be looking at targeting 3,140 50 so on and so forth and if you do manage to kind of move a bit lower from here support can be found from this zone here in around 3,000 and 65 Up even below that potentially at 3,025 and even if you go blah blah blah blah that rather It could head back towards the 50 movie average and that comes to play at 3,021 Take a look now a couple of big currency pairs starting off at the euro versus US dollar So the wider the very wide theme has been tried with the 19 very much to the downside and I'll grant it We didn't see a decent move bounce back in the euro versus the US dollar in In the middle of October but then partially driven by the fact that there was chatter of another interest rate copy in October which did which was delivered by the Fed reserve And now what we're seeing is the market appears to be turning over on itself again or back below the fifth That they move the average And we're not too far away from the kind of psychology important 110 mark So if you manage to have a fairly size of break below the no one 10 below the mid-November low We think you'll be looking at it back down towards one or nine are back toward the tour this year here in a one spot 08 79 Even the flip side we must approach a higher from here Resistance could be found from this yellow line here the one already moving average And we can see in a few occasions that act as resistance recently So it could be significant and that comes into play in a one spot 1084 and even if you go beyond that we'd really need to be taking off this area here in a one spot 11 79 or up towards gonna 112 really need to be taking off these areas before we could then begin to think you know what maybe The wider downward trend has come to an end and then we could be looking at our everything this area here in around one spot 12 49 I took a look now at the pound versus the US dollar So opinion polls continue to put Have recently shown that the conservative party are in the lead their pro business So that's helped British bound hang on to the gains that have been achieved in the last few months And to be honest we've seen I know We've seen the pound kind of largely trade kind of range bound in the last few weeks Just because the opinion polls are putting Boris Johnson's consumer party in front for business So it's good to the British pound but on the flip side. There's still a lot to still a lot a lot Still a lot certainly going on so some traders are a bit anxious to take you know a very aggressive post position on the British pound because you know opinion polls if 2016 as far as anything is I think some go I think some go very very wrong In terms of the opinion Expectations versus reality So that's why we're not seeing any kind of major going to move to the upside in the British pound But the wider upward trend is still very much in play if you do get a push on higher from here We could really can try to get taken off the recent high one spot 30 12 I think I'll be on that. We could make more of this over here in a one spot 31 78 Any move to the downside might find support from the kind of 128 or just thought about at one spot 27 It's 68 region and it's only really if you can have a size of break below The journey will be average this red line here in a one spot just north of 127 Then we begin to think you know what maybe the pound is heading lower Take a look now at what's going on Commodities starting off with the gold market. So gold has been a fairly decent upward trend The wider there's been very much to the upside on the gold market so what I'm gonna do now is In relation to gold the wider trend The very much to the upside has been it would not achieve a six-year high in September But as we can see the market has been pushing lower since then And what we can see here is it wasn't that long ago only in the last week The gold market fell to a three-month low. So after a six-year high He probably expects some bit of a bit of a natural pullback And that's what we've been seeing the last few weeks and months although although The the moves in gold have been fairly small Volatility is fairly low, but you know, we can't ignore the fact that it has been drifting lower So if we do manage to get off the racing load you know in around 1445 we could make a target in this area here in around 1430 Even the on the flip side, would you imagine putting a press on higher from here? potential areas of resistance could be coincide in around here between the kind of word moving average and the fifth moving average and that comes into play and They're gonna band in around 1482 1489 there they're about and it's only really if you're gonna break north of this area here in a 1517 take off those highs the highs of late October and early November It's only if you take off those highs because then we begin to think you know what? Maybe the recent downward trend has come to an end and the wider upper trend is to be back in play Take a look now. What's going on on Brent oil? So the oil market is often kind of like it kind of like I think it's kind of subject to the US China trade story China's major Importful of oil if things are looking good on the trade front it makes it more like it that China's gonna increase You know it's gonna keep up their appetite for oil So we can see here on the oil market since early October it's been broadly being driving higher Hasn't seen any kind of major move to the upside. We're still below this red line here The Trinity will be average so sentiment isn't is heady. It's heady. It's moving positive, but it's not really bullish But if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at our getting The 30 will be average at 64 spot 81 I'll move beyond that could take this area into play in a 65 spot 79 and a PD managed to kind of turn over on ourselves It's only really if you're gonna take out say 60 bucks or 59 spot 60 Because I would begin to think you know what maybe the kind of wider trend the wider bearish trend is falling back into play And then we could see further losses from there and lastly I take a look at WTI And it's a fairly similar concern to what we saw Brent whereby since early October the market's been no G higher Brent WTI to fairies in a better in a better state It has been if you draw a line between the lows of early October and mid October We get the strain line along here at markets comfortably above that in fact WTI is actually back above It's 20 moving average so you can see that it's a bit more bullish in the Brent market It's kind of making some gains to the upside and if you press on our from here We could look at our this is old here in around 59 spot 32 and we'll be on that could take Bring it 60 bucks per barrel into play if the market does manage you can a turn over on itself We could find support from this trend line here Which you couldn't play in around kind of 54 spots 65 there there abouts And if you have a pretty size of break below that we could look at then back end now toward the kind of 51 region the lows that we saw in early October Well, thank you for listening. That's all for me this week and please tune in next week. Thank you very much