 Very good speakers the guests. We're just gonna wait until I more people come in just one more minute And then I'm gonna crack on and then I'm gonna hand it over to Shaheen Okay, no problem. Thank you professor Hello, everyone and welcome to tonight's event on the actually tomorrow's election in in Iran We have the immense honor and privilege to talk about this I would argue to certain extent unprecedented Event with a number of literally world-leading experts who will be introduced very shortly, but before we start just let me Congratulate and let me thank me at this close here. The studies I mean particularly easy and Danny for putting at this for facilitating this incredible event and Our main share of who is a Shaheen Madares Shaheen Madares, Mr. Shaheen Madares is a graduate from Lewis University in Italy and a member of the crime extremism and terrorism a team from international team from the study security Verona His expertise range from a political theory to in fact like crime and extremism and radicalization But he's also very knowledgeable as for Iranian domestic and international politics that said you know What to say Iran is indubitably one of the most important players in the region indubitably probably It has always been a very important actor and even if we think about what is happening today as we speak Let's think of Iranian presence In the southern Lebanon. Let's think of Iranian presence or influence in the Arabian Peninsula Let's think of Iranian internal politics. What is it happening as we're currently speaking? Let's think of the fact of the sanctions. Let's think of the economy. Let's think of internal politics. Ahmadinejad coming back in commenting on the Mossad allegedly openly admitting its involvement in domestic Iranian politics So the point being it is an incredibly Important the country and tomorrow's election do have the implications What is going to happen inside Iran? What is going to happen beyond Iran? And I mean as we're saying in a King's College London is incredibly honored to have this Immense immensely relevant important panel of incredible speakers. I mean for us tonight and so Without any further ado again, thank you very much to all our guests Thank you very much to all our panelists. Thank you very much to the school. Thank you very much to Shahin My name is a doctor Michele Gropi. I'm a teaching fellow here at King's College London and the president of the international team for the study of Security Verona welcome again, but before I hand it over to Shahin one very last question Obviously a number of topics might sound pretty controversial we have as Let me repeat this life for the third time incredible panelists speakers with the impressive backgrounds and Different experiences. Please. Let's respect all of their opinions as The school warrants and champions. I promise that by the end of the event I will make sure that but by using the chat box here that you can book your spot And if you have any questions, I will do my best to obviously to make sure that you can ask them now There's a 114 people at the moment. We cannot take 114 questions, but I will make sure that At least as much as possible that you can ask your your questions once again guests and Speakers and or an organizer Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for this event and now without any further ado Shahin whenever you want the floor is yours Thank you, Dr. Gropi on behalf of I guess this former in King's College London Allow me to thank you again for accepting our invitation tonight with us. We are having Dr. Roksana farmer farmer young She's a senior from a research at King's College London in the center of divided society and academic director Of international relations and global studies at Cambridge University. Thank you for being with us We have Mr. Manager of it on fire like sure are remaining in politics at the interdisciplinary center in Hertz Leah and director of Iran Israel observatory Thank you for being with us. Maybe we have Mr. Alex of a car Director of Iran program program as newly seen students in Washington DC and consultant to United States Air Force School of special operations. Thank you for being in the silence and from Iran We have to discuss that as you can all put this off political theory at the faculty of law and political sciences of University in Tehran who recently publishes lightest book the birth of Israel anymore. Thank you for being with us. Allow me The floor by a question address to all of you I'm the eve of the ringing elections a big question that comes to the mind of people who can vote the legitimate Electress of Iran is the fact that what is the actual role of the president in the Islamic Republic and what are his powers? We will begin in alphabetical order. We've back to her son. I'm a family on you have five minutes. The floor is yours Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here and it's always the pleasure to represent Kings as a visiting fellow as well as of course fulfilling my my role from The position I hold at the University of Cambridge. So it's really a pleasure to be here. Thank you very much for having me and indeed it is an important evening The day before the election and I would say it's a very important election because it's very unusual and I would say also it's important because the position of the president Although it is not thought the almost monarchical position Powers that the supreme leader has it is nonetheless the highest elected office in Iran and it does have a full campaign and electoral season and it is usually thought of as a referendum on the performance of the government and the leadership every time that it takes place every four years and I think that as a result we should see it as a civilian or as a as a population demographically represented in the government the president also carries the right to establish a cabinet and Certainly several members of that cabinet are absolutely critical to the image of Iran abroad the extremely powerful clerical aspect of leadership, although it's in many ways more powerful than the elected Government positions including the president are also much less Visible outside Iran and sometimes even inside Iran So the image and the interaction of the government with the people and with foreign powers really rest with the the president and his cabinet and it is they also who very much overlap and Interact with the parliament another Significant arm of government that is elected this particular time I think it's very interesting because the two arms the presidency and the supreme leader position Are in effect coming together because the supreme leader Ali Khamenei is Reaching an age where there is real debate as to whether he will be alive when the next Presidential election takes place in four years and as a result this president this elected president will possibly be looking over and managing the transition of the Position of supreme leader. There's only ever been one transition before That was when Khomeini the current supreme leader were replaced the leader of the revolution Ayatollah Khomeini. It was a very Peaceful transition it was smooth in any case and I think that's what the regime is hoping for today and there is even talk that should the Anointed choice of the regime The head of the judiciary Abraham Rai see should he be elected that There's a possibility that this could actually pave the way for him to become Considered for the next supreme leadership. So there's quite a bit at stake here However, before I finish my remarks I would like to say that Iran does occasionally produce quite a number of surprises in these Elections and although I don't think any of us would consider them completely free Certainly the selection of candidates has always been very much in the remit of the clerical committees and Guardian council There nonetheless have been upsets in the past the upsets have gone both ways too So the first upset where the anointed and the chosen candidate of the government of the of the clerical regime was overturned by a reformist Hotemi and in the second case the anointed and chosen of the government was overturned by Ahmadinejad who was definitely not a reformist but a Representative of a very specific line of the hardliners so it could go either way and this time and on this note I'd like to finish my remarks This time we have actually just two candidates left who are serious candidates and one of them is a technocrat Thank you, and the likelihood therefore of a possible overturn is Thank you so much. Thank you so much. Thank you. We go to Mr. Javed Amfar May I say a minute? Yes, of course five minutes Okay. Thank you very much and good evening everybody Many thanks to the organizers for the timely for this time the panel and it's great to be in Company of such great experts and I say that without Todd off Very humbled and it's wonderful to be speaking somebody was actually sitting in Tehran professor Ziba Kalambara I would love to be but for now I can't but in terms of the answer the question in according to the Iranian constitution You are you know in Iran there was a post-revolution Constitution and then it was changed and The changes were put to a referendum in 1989 and the people of Iran bolted overwhelmingly in favor of the changer What we see after The point when I told how many becomes The supreme leader was in a position of the president gradually weakened We see the Republican institutions which are elected by the people Being weakened at the expense of the revolutionary institutions now at high and the lobby as it's called Who are becoming stronger and this is something that actually you know in Tehran before the these elections we see that they have this Project with school where it's called the free tribune People come and speak without fear. They say they're concerned and one of things to keep hearing from people Is that what's the point of voting for the president can't do much The people of Iran voted for Mr. Afsanjani One of the issues were development of the economy and one of the other issue was you know reduced tension with the West You still you didn't get very far. The the revolution institutions that Created a lot of problems for example. He wanted to have better relations with Saudi Arabia We saw the whole bar time power ponies in 1996 There are other examples I can tell you so and then Mr. Khatami who came to power and one of his promises was implementation of the Constitution Because the Constitution Iran's unfortunately not even the current Constitution is not implemented And if the cost if the Iranian people have the rights which are afforded to them by the Iranian Constitution They would have a they would have much more freedoms, but they don't so what I'm trying to say that although the Constitution gives the president much more rights and much more Authority but what people sees that especially during the start of a Rouhani is that the government cannot do much So what's the point of voting? What's the point of voting when there were demonstrations? According to some of the November 2019 according to one report a thousand were killed according to another report The thousand five hundred pick you pick any number you think it's more accurate Mr. Rouhani doesn't didn't say anything the reformist didn't say anything Then returns out, you know the whole Ukraine playing crash the president did not know is that I didn't own I only found out You know the story does what followed it the government looked completely incompetent then of course the The most important was the the side lay laws interview with the foreign minister java that he basically said, you know I'm the foreign minister. I did not know that the There were flights to Syria. I did not know, you know and that the Basically revolution institutions which includes the IRGC were undermining the old step of the way And they're almost ruined the nuclear deal with the with the Americans by Mr. Alcensore money going and meeting with the Russian so On the one hand, we have the Constitution that these Rights much more rights to the people's representative the president, but in reality we see That the president really does not have much power. So tomorrow I Agree with Professor Pamela Pamayon. I actually think if we know the candidates and Matisse the most qualified This is what people of Iran really need. I in my opinion somebody who understands economy and other, you know That the real bread-and-butter issue which the economy is one of the most important issues Even if he wins, let's imagine the scenario for you for few wins. What can you do really? What can you do? There were people who are with a far more stronger background than him Mr. Rohani who was their Supreme Leader's representative at the Supreme National Supreme Council for 10 years Is somebody in the Supreme Leader? Trust it. How he couldn't do much. What can Mr. Hemati be and I think another last point. I think that's a road that these elections is there is the comments by Mr. Moslehi the former Intelligence Minister that look they knew Raf Sanjani winning 2013 and the Guardian Council just stopped So I think in a way if the turn turned out tomorrow is low and I think it will be low the people who are to blame the most is the Guardian Council and And it's the fact that you know soon after Honestly, how many became Supreme Leader in 1991? He was given the right to filter all the candidates whereas before it wasn't so involved and then the process Just give less democratic hence undermining the position of the president and the election. Thank you. Thank you so much Mr. Batakha the floor is yours in your opinion. What are the two powers of the president in the Islamic Republic? Please Thank you. Thank you for inviting me. It's great to see everyone. I'm really looking forward to the conversation and I really just want to add to what we've already heard I am not one who believes that the presidency in Islamic Republic really matters that much When you consider what iran is inflicted by at the moment the crises that iran are faced with Relate to issues that the president simply just doesn't have the power to deal with it That's why I'm not excited about the election outcome tomorrow You know, Abdul Nasir Ahmad. He could win tomorrow or Ibrahim Raisi could win tomorrow I frankly think it makes very little difference to the key issues that the country of iran the people of iran faced with On the nuclear front You know, whoever wins the nuclear talks in vienna will continue And I you know, I would say in terms of the future of us iran relations. They will continue I think iran's regional activity agenda will continue I don't expect major changes in iranian policies in iraq and lebanon and syria And so forth just because there's a new president after tomorrow's election if there is a A winner after this first round. It could turn into be a two-round race we will see I'm not excited because as as you heard You know already There's a rich history of presidents coming To power in the islamic republic with all sorts of promises with the hopes of the iranian people behind them And they're going to take a different turn that they're going to go in a different direction because all iranians Hate to see another bloody revolution No iranian wants to try another revolution. This is why they keep voting for whoever the System puts front of them. They always choose the most moderate. I mean today The most moderate is abdel maserahem. I think who's not a reformist who's a technocrat. He has no political background But yet he's the only one who has said certain things that you could construe as criticism of the status quo But if you really want to change the status quo You have to touch on some of those very sensitive issues That incidentally the seven men who were in this race were told beforehand do not even go there So we saw in the three presidential debates. Don't talk about the american question Don't talk about iran's regional agenda. Don't talk about anything. That's a red line for aito l'chaminé or the revolution guards You know with a environment like this You will never have change. You will have an echo chamber You'll have people who believe that their way is the only way You know repeating the same messages This is extremely dangerous for the survival of the islamic republic because they don't want outsiders to have A say and I think that's why the presidency Really at this moment doesn't matter ebrahim iraisi Is you know you could make the argument that if you found the right person the courageous person Who might go through the guardian council filter and become president and stand up to aito l'chaminé and the revolution guards Because there are two entities that are against change in iran. It's aito l'chaminé and it's the revolution guards They matter more than anyone else Let's say you have a president who's brave and can stand up and speak truth to power to to those two centers of power Is ebrahim iraisi that person? Absolutely not ebrahim iraisi is only in this race because he's backed fully by aito l'chaminé the revolution guards the rest of the state machinery There is no other reason for ebrahim iraisi to be in this race. He's not a great orator. He doesn't have a vision He's a technocrat. We didn't know about ebrahim iraisi 2017 and now suddenly he's at the presidential frontrunner and a potential supreme leader because Inside the regime there is enough energy around him not because they think he's a great glorious individual with wonderful ideas for the future But because they think they can control him because they think he can keep the regime intact and the big challenge for and i'll finish here the big challenge for Raisi and khamenei and those people who have engineered this election is do they really think Continuing the path of the last 30 some years that khamenei has been supreme leader. Is that going to make this a regime survive? Do they think they can continue to be on this path? I doubt it very much That's a risk they have to take but long story short You know mahmoud ahman eid al-shod when he was president. He didn't dare say anything It's only after his presidency. He dares to speak the truth Imagine if you had a president who could do it when they were actually in the presidential palace But that's why they have a filter and they make sure only people they can control Get to run for the presidency Thank you. Thank you so much. Professor ziba qalam Same question to you. What are the real powers of the president in the Islamic republic? And from my understanding allow me to add the fact that As also our guests somehow indicated that during the presidential debates We come to an understanding at least I came to an understanding that many many of these people Do not have neither the academic knowledge nor the practical experience to run a country In your opinion is the president really a president in the Islamic republic the floor is yours I think this election Would be a turning point In the history of the Islamic republic Because up until now more or less The majority of the voters Above 50 percent mark Two part in the election. They either voted for rohani or voted for ahmed inejad But the important issue was that More than 50 percent took part in the election So the regime took it as a referendum Because there are many voices inside the country and outside Which Insists on a referendum They say that after 42 years of the of the Islamic constitution or new generation Uh, the the leader of the uh, revolution late, uh, Many set himself at the beginning of the revolution that Each generation has to choose their own way of The government. So the fact that our fathers Elected the Islamic republic for us. It doesn't mean that we have to accept it No The best reply from the Islamic establishment was that well, look you saw for yourself More than 50 percent of the people Participated in in in the election. It means that in an indirect way It means that uh, the people Ratified with with their vote with their going to the ballot box that they still support the Islamic republic now Why it will be a turning point because this time all the statistics Uh, show that less than 50 percent will take part in the election so going back to the To the to the point that the regime itself has established during the past few decades That the the the the the figure Is very important when the people take part in the election by the same token We could say that it will be a turning point because it means that Uh, the majority will not take part in in the election Which means that the majority of the of Iranian do not support the Islamic republic any longer Um That's uh, that's uh The crucial result of this election now the second important development of this election is that there have been a lot of discussion As to what is the role of a president If the decisions are taken by the supreme leader If the decisions are taken by the revolution and the god, what's the point of People going to the ballot box and choosing a president I think because of these these Powerful criticism that that that have been levied against The fact that the Iranian president really has no power I think this time we would observe that Regardless of who is the president racy or someone else The system would allow him to have some more power particularly particularly if that president is is Mr. Racy who is trusted fully By the establishment, then he will then he will he will have even more Power now, what does it mean in practice? It means that the jcpo Negotiation it will it will go through that the the iranian Negotiator could reach A deal with the united states over the over the nuclear issue Now does that mean that on other issues that would be agreement such as iranian military presence in in yaman Syria in lovinan The call for an annihilation of the state of israel Would we be able to see changes in that respect? Would we see? Would we see at the taunt as far as relation between iran? Thank you Sir, we cannot hear you. You're muted. And also the time is over. I should move to our next case Thank you. I think it would be We have too much of our expectation However However, sir. Thank you so much. We will be back to you in the next round. I have to respect the time Thank you. Dr. Farman farmyan as we heard A problem that is being created and it's showing itself today in iran is the fact that many people Industries of iran are actually using these public tribunes to say the fact that they are frustrated That they need change that they are shouting for referendum also calls from within the country demonstrate that From the illegible electricity in iran almost seven approximately 70 percent will not be participating in these elections Is islamic republic facing a legitimacy crisis? the floridaeers Thank you Well, there certainly have been A great deal of complaints about how this process is running at the moment how the regime is running in the lack of Trust that's very clear among the population in the face of sanctions In the face of economic hardship and in the face of rampant covid as well And there certainly has been a hashtag being sent around the country particularly among the young people of note to islamic republic which really relates directly back to what Professor ziba kalam has said I Find that it's quite interesting though because Indeed, I think this is a turning point But I think we're we are already going around this turning point because in the past Although we know that these have not been free elections ever because there's always been a selection of candidates That selection always reflected that didn't reflect the demographics It didn't reflect the people in the past but it did always reflect the parties the different groups in the government And this time it doesn't And I think that's already a key Reflection of how the situation within the government and its Desire to control the situation has changed substantially and so it cannot be a referendum on the islamic of Republic simply because the republic itself is not represented in that group of of candidates. I think that the element of How this is going to be respect reflected in the ballot box is unclear. We know that 30 percent have said they will not vote We know that 70 percent have said that they will not vote and i'm quoting ispa the poll from between Iran I've seen various i'm sure that's the case. There's iran is notoriously hard to to to Pin down and actually Any population about to go to the polls is very difficult to pin down, which is why one tends to have exit polls I have also heard that there's about 30 percent. Let's let's start the other way around to be on the same Plane therefore 30 percent are saying they will vote I think what we're seeing among the rest is that some are definitely not going to vote But some have not made up their mind and I think that is where the The mystery here may lie. Will they vote for for hemati? Will they vote for ricey? We don't know and that Percentage is going to play a huge role as to the legitimacy of this of this president I'm not so sure. I agree with Dr. Ziba halam in terms of whether he will gain power Because if he doesn't gain a great number of votes, I think it becomes extremely difficult For the government to then say he has the confidence of the people So I think we have actually quite a lot to see tomorrow as to how how this is going to play out Thank you Very same question to you But let me first introduce a very brief introduction that the origins of totalitarianism Hannah Arendt describes this third phase For totalitarian regime saying that in the third phase They begin to make the inner circle stricter and stricter We can see that people such as Abilore Jennings, the speaker of the house Was not approved by the garden council to be the candidates Can we also say that they have achieved the third phase of the totalitarian regime? The floor is yours. Thank you very much five minutes again Yes, okay. Thank you Look, um Please allow me just to address the point and it's related to what what what you you are showing job um, you know professor Ziba halam said because mr Raisi or sorry doctor Raisi apparently is also a doctor. He has a phd apparently also his wife also has a phd um Said you know the fact that he's close to If if Raisi is close to the system then he's going to get more help Yes, we saw that mr. Ahmadinejad's first term actually And we saw that that the irgc's financial organizations cut a lot of stack slack for him Also, when mr. Ahmadinejad was the mayor of Tehran, they also gave him huge loans Which were not to repay so being close to the hokumat To the to the system to the nizam to the to the regime Actually can open a lot of doors for you when compared to when somebody's not from within the system Such as khatami or or nature on even rohani who wasn't you know, he was more with the rafsanjani crowd than Than than the than the inner circles of the nizam But we saw what happened to our Ahmadinejad in his second term he fell out so if mr. Raisi now goes and he has the support of the Of the establishment then there's no guarantee that in the second term is still going to have it because they they fall out In terms of the islamic republic. Look, I think one of the biggest reasons I think that description is right. I think the more one of the biggest reasons why the islamic republic Is increasingly I mean in an unprecedented way Closing itself in going after the hodiy, you know, just along the criteria for hodiy One of us is becoming even more strict Um is another two factors one of them is the trump sanctions Yes, the trump sanctions did not topple the islamic republic The trump sanctions did not get Iran to give up its nuclear program But one thing they did was when they took away the Income of many of these regime organizations and the economic sanctions Instead of running around the flag These conservatives actually fought each other more viciously than before They became more corrupt They became even nastier to each other than before and they mismanaged the country even in a greater manner So that created the concern within the islamic republic within the inner circles of the regime that look We're going down because actually instead of the people of iran Riding around the flag after the fact that trump walked out of the dilanin post sanctions We see that the people of iran still want to have good relations with the united states So I think that created the concern that look people within the system now have to be Filted more because larry johnny was one of those people who actually believed That iran needs to have better relations with america not because he was an imperialist Because I think he subscribes to the late pro prime minister wasattil's foreign policy Doctrine of mobiles and a man fee the negative equilibrium to play off the supreme leader The superpowers to get what's best for iran when you only got china russia And you don't have the americans to play them off against each other China russia can do whatever they want to iran and I think this is something That larry johnny wants to do but because the islamic republic sees that despite what trump did There are still people who want to be pro-western and despite the fact that what trump did the islamic republic instead of the hard line is rallying around the flag and Actually Performing better on the pressure that performed worse And I think these factors create I've brought it to the to the point where its legitimacy is increasingly under question And I think I told how many is genuinely concerned about What is happening to iran? I think the fact that the guardian council disqualified so many people is a great sign of weakness It's not a sign of strength The islamic republic was strong when it when it's the when you know, it used to fly on both wings The reformist and the conservatives during for example, khatami But now I think you know the terrible lady The the conservatives performed last but not least if I can just point one other issue You know, you could say mr Mr Mr. Rohani could be the best or the worst prime minister. I told the farm. Sorry president I told how many could be the best or the worst supreme leader I think what the most important factor I think I don't want to say more important than human rights, but human rights is very important But I think what really angers the people of iran is that the state is not functioning There is like the nizam the the regime says it's the government's responsibility The government says I don't have the authority to carry out my responsibility So you have huge issues regarding the country that are falling through a black hole And people are suffering and I think this more than anything else is hurting the legitimacy of the islamic republic It's not functioning Thank you. Thank you The same question to you with adding one three comments that a part of the state's legitimacy comes from its foreign relations with other countries Iran has been terribly isolated in the recent years. Do you think this will change? And how do you think it's going to take this legitimacy? That's a great question. Look if you look at 1979 revolution in iran It was in fact celebrated by many around the world who were in the so-called anti-american anti-imperialist camp It wasn't just islamist that celebrated it But in revolution of iran in 1979 very quickly took on a very xenophobic um posture and I would say the islamic republic continues to be a very xenophobic Entity it's xenophobic because it doesn't trust the outside world. It doesn't like the outside world Um, and if it engages with the outside world, it shakes to change the outside world in its own image um Iran paid a heavy price for that during the iran iraq war I told the Khomeini famously said I can count our friends on the fingers of one hand It was his fault. He started this process Khomeini did not live live long enough to change it And the guy who took over from him the individual who took over from him. I tell the hominy I mean he uses the word doshman enemy so much more than it probably any other word I can think of when he describes the outside world You know he I tell the hominy has not left Iran since I think he went to new york In september of 1988 He doesn't even go to mecca. He doesn't go to carvala. He doesn't travel He doesn't know the world rafsan johnny who knew the world much better than hominy You know, he tried in a in his two-term as president to take iran in a different direction foreign policy wise He was stopped by the revulsion regards and by hominy for one reason The outside world is a threat to them and their interest in iran. They think they will lose out They think they lose that power and money. That's why they keep the outside world out Khatami's great dialogue of civilization didn't go anywhere again because khamenei and revulsion regards stopped him Mahmoud Ahmadinejad even tried in the second term focusing on iran first islam second We all know what happened to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He's very lucky. He's not in prison right now like his close advisors So this is a system that's xenophobic. This is a system that Does not want to deal with the outside. We need the outside world for the flow of money They need to sell the oil and get the technology but really deep down These are people who came of age politically naive and very much poorly knowledgeable about the outside world and this is the point I want to make about ebrahima racy ebrahima racy is born in 1960 Who is 19 years old when the revolution happened? He joined the system. This regime he's serving today For the last 42 years To my knowledge ebrahima racy knows very little about the outside world And because of his involvement in the execution of thousands of prisoners in 1988 He will not be able to travel around the world. In other words, he will continue the isolation of iran a country that is not known for its isolation Iran is not north korea Iran is not supposed to be isolated. There's five to seven million Iranians around the world So but this you're going to get the same with ebrahima racy. You're going to get the same Horrible, I think narrow view of the world of the idea that out there there's nothing good out there trade with them When necessary and they're choosing their partners very selectively those partners increasing your narrow down to two countries russia and china I just don't think that's sustainable. I just don't think a country of 82 million people can sustain itself on this path going forward There are you know, how many more iranians need to leave the country before you have enough employment for everyone who lives in the country I mean, these are really tough questions that I don't think ita lakhamini has answers for and let me stop by saying this For ita lakhamini this election as I said earlier is about one thing and nothing else. It's about his succession process It's about his succession process about having someone maximum control So when the day ita lakhamini dies, there won't be any surprises Because as the professor farman farmyan pointed out iran has had one succession in the summer of 1989 And you know what happened in 1989? It happened within 24 hours 48 hours. There was no blueprint Nobody really knew what was going on To this day. We don't know exactly what happened And the regime can't afford something like that risky. So I think common is planning to You know, the only reason where you ask the guardian council to kick out someone like alilari johnny and so many other people Are loyal members of the regime. The only reason is because you want maximum control for the succession process That's what this election is about. Thank you. Thank you so much Professor ziva kalam. We heard that mr. Vata mentioned about relations of iran and its neighbors external relations But when we come to these domestic matters internal relations We see this dreadful wave of suppressing activists writers journalists normal people's Workers such as ismail about she who protested because they were not paid their salary who were tortured and imprisoned In your opinion, is this also a form of legitimacy crisis before the floor is yours I believe that uh iran's foreign relation particularly with the west would actually influence the behavior of iran domestically Islamic regime domestically With the intelligentsia With writers With woman Right activists human right activists etc etc The reason is is is is somewhat very simple We know that china and russia don't care Don't give a damn as far as Human right is concerned however With the west It's not the same Now, I'm not naive and I don't believe that That united states or the EU countries put their own national interests above Sorry, rather below Iranian Human right issue. No, obviously they are they are they are more concerned of their own national interests and Than what's happening to political prisoners in iran, for example, however, however, if the relation Between the Islamic republic And the west is somewhat normal Is not the is not very hostile Then I believe That Tehran Would somehow be be be a bit more careful As to how it behaved towards its dissidents its human right Activist no, this is not a simple Visual thinking it has happened in the past that during all the All the attack all the rhetoric against the against the Western countries Nevertheless when it comes to the question of human right provided that iran's relation Is is somewhat better than what it is at the moment Then I think it will it will It will impact on On the human right situation now for example When there was the nuclear deal Six years ago It's somehow In my opinion, it's in in somehow affected Iran's domestically as far as human right was Was concerned However, however, when the relation with the west is very bitter And Very hostile It doesn't help because then the Islamic government says that I can do what I like with with my own This is regardless of the of the reaction that That I will have from them from From the west so the relation with the west. I think it In in many ways it will influence And have an effect on iran's Disident and the question the important question of human right In iran Thank you You still have one minute if you'd like to make any other comments. You still have one minute No, as I said that the reverse unfortunately the reverse is is true and we have observed with that that whenever that there have been A great deal of hostility with the with the best The the human right situation in iran has deteriorated Thank you. Thank you so much Professor farmer farmer and we come back to you with this question that allow me to briefly Give you this introduction that according to the IMF international mountain fund by the end of 2020 Almost 30% of the Iranian population went under the absolute line of poverty It means that one in three Iranians by the morning when they wake up They do not know if they will have a roof on your head By night or not Also, we see that this combination of Islamic republic the republican part is decreasing day by day Do you think that Islamic republic is facing the same path that north korea Wants the cross and do you think that it's becoming more of Islamic states? It's a very good question and um First of all, I think that one has to draw a distinction between the systems and the economic approach in some place like north korea In fact in some place like venezuela versus uh in iran iran is still at least a hybrid system that includes a great degree of capitalistic entrepreneurial small business development And I think that that has a very different effect in terms of how we see its progression going However, it is uh definite that the the sanctions have had a a significant effect on the economic well-being of the population I think this has contributed to a number of different Outcomes one is I I think today for the first time actually The iranian middle class of which about 25 percent of the middle class has dropped To poverty level where have the sanctions not been reimposed had the jcpoa been allowed to continue It was expected that actually there would be a rise in the number of people in the in the middle class I think for the first time we're really feeling uh a sense inside iran from what I can tell from people I speak to that the uh The blame is being placed somewhat on the american role in uh In walking out of the jcpoa and its impact particularly during a time of covet So I find it quite interesting that you quote a an imf A report which also of course has shown that iran's economy for whatever reasons Um Is beginning to bounce back as many economies are across the covet uh landscape. It's not going to Jump back enough To really draw the people out of poverty that have fallen into poverty And I think it's also one of those cases where it's quite interesting To see the what temati has been saying in the debate Particularly this last debate where he is saying that one of the greatest problems is the structural issue that is Making iran so badly run and it's because the various power centers have got to become better less corrupt and more Communicative and the entire capital market has to be changed And I think that makes him perhaps one of the most interesting Candidates we've seen for a while and I would be very surprised actually even if he loses this which is likely That we will not see him continue either going back to the central bank Or in some other position because the economy I think those at the top recognize the very fact that he was accepted as a as a candidate and passed the The uh strict requirements show that he is part of the system And I think they recognize that a an economist that can work with the with the regime Help it not lose face while nonetheless getting some economic changes in place, which he's done consistently Um would be very useful. So I think it's perhaps useful for all of us to know who he is now that he is running because much as As was pointed out by uh, dr. Vitanka, we didn't know very much about reisi until a few years ago We certainly didn't know a lot about hemati until this time around and it's quite useful to know who's in the background And what they're doing and what their their histories are Thank you. You still have one minute if you'd like to make any other comments Well, I very quickly. I think that one of the difficulties in in iran at the moment is that the Um That it is tough There's a combination a hybrid again of a sense that if they had only been allowed to access their foreign reserves Or if they had been allowed by the imf to get the loan that the imf Have denied them or if they'd been allowed to have A humanitarian aid that the situation would be better So I think there is a a sense of of being caught and I do wonder it is a very difficult regime election I think to judge where the regime is because it is a very specific election and the next one around may be quite different again Thank you. Thank you so much. Let me go to let's see java. Mary jam. We heard dr. Farmer family and but allow me to add something that besides economic problems and the crisis of democracy We are also facing another matter that you also mentioned in The event at the begging center draught draught has been brought to you as a matter as a result of mismanagement What's your opinion on that? um You know, unfortunately part in this region. We're facing a severe drought other countries neighboring countries such as iraq Have faced the drought also jordan Israel supplies part of jordan's water system Iran is facing a drought, but also there being mismanagement of the water systems from for iraq's water resources for many years and We saw it with the revolutionary guard in the 1990s Building dams of an unprecedented rate iran was I think in terms of dam construction was the top five in the world um and You know, even the the irgc became so good at building dams that built abroad also in armenia in nicaragua um, but unfortunately reached a stage where according to Dr. Kaveh madani who served in iran's minister of environment and unfortunately he was held it out Uh, he had to escape and it's now at yale Uh iran's water resources are bankrupt. Basically. It's beyond replaceable. It's bankrupt It's like a bankrupt person a person who doesn't have enough money In the bank and they know they don't they can't replace the the the money that they're taking out um and Spending it and this is something that is uh, that is very dangerous for First of all for the future of iran and also for the islamic republic and I am separating the two because Uh, unfortunately, I'm not seeing much done by the by the regime Iran needs to have uh soon after the jcp was signed And mr. Rohani did want to sign some agreements with some german companies and to bring more experts into iran But we saw some of the environmentalists were arrested And one of them unfortunately committed suicide Uh after was arrested an iranian canadian environmentalist also I want to say money Sorry May he rest may he rest in peace um And uh, you know iran needs to have investment in this. This is not something that that can be taken for granted This is not something also that iran can handle on its own iran is full international cooperation To deal with this with this issue, but we saw soon after the uh nuclear deal went into effect in by 2016 This they started testing ballistic missiles And they wrote on it is wrong must be wiped out of face of the earth in hebrew they did it so that we get the message And they did other things to push the international community away and this is before trump Council the Council the nuclear deal and of course the sanctions that is impossible much worse But the situation with the drought, um, it is something that's look already according to professor sari or galam um I think he's I think the number was five million five million iranians have already left southern iran to go to northern iran Uh in search of water resources people in uh in uh, cistanabad which is stan province in south eastern iran are Well, majority sunni they're moving to mashad and which is the main shia city with the imam resashrine And some of the extremist ayatollah are accusing them of a sunni takeover of the city so it's already creating tensions and If I can quote also another you an iran expert on on the water issue nika hangi kousar We just don't see this issue being addressed with seriousness because Already this summer they're going to be cities that that are going to face water shortages water rations they're going to they're going to face water rations And and the and the rainfall is not promising to be good in the next years And you know, there will be more migration there from from places where which are hit by the drought. There will be more unemployed Farmers there with the cities are going to see more people migration especially in the north from the south and I think This will create tensions also different between the different ethnicities So I think iran the country that we know and and we love is going to Change because of this crisis. I'm not talking about the islamic republic. I'm talking about iran itself It's fabric of national ethnicities and it's environmental character and environmental makeup is is Facing an unprecedented danger. And you know if mister This is not the issue of just the islamic republic not being democratic Even if there was full democracy and I told how many was fully democratically elected The terrible performance of of the system the political system of iran, which as I said is almost not functioning Is create is is adding to this disaster which will Change the face of iran For generations to come. Thank you. Thank you so much. Let's start off. Back to you We heard our panelists but long if you add a very quick introduction that in order to iran If iran wants to join the international banking system It should be able to have International transactions and we can see that for the past few years They have not been able to confirm and pass the bill of the f atf And the parliament convention that goes against the monologue brain procedure and the fundings for terrorism Do you think without approving f atf iran can Have economic improvements Well, thank you I'll get to that in a second if I may just respond also quickly to the issue of the drought in iran My good friend the mayor in israel Talks about, you know Iran looking for german experts to come and help iran You know what that would be great, but there are many many many Very talented iranians who could do that too who have been forced to flee their country And the fact that there is no program in place Except token gestures and empty offices that once in a while get launched to deal with the diaspora affairs There is nothing systematic being done But islamic republic to tap into the human talents and potential of of the iran diaspora And of course the iranians in iran I mean, this is the bad mismanagement and you know, I hate to keep keep going back to it I'm not here to To do any personal attacks, but the fact is ita lahamini has been the supreme leader of this system for 32 years If he stays in power another five years has been there as long as the Shah was okay Whereas the Shah focused on modernization and the Shah had many faults There are many issues that one can criticize the Shah about but he did focus on the nation home building Right if you talk to a certain generation of iranians They will tell you what when they grew up in the 50s and 60s in iran That was very different from their parents generation grew up in the 20s and the 30s That was the legacy of the pahlavi family, which I said had many issues. They were certainly not democrat But they did build up iran Islamic republic has done some of that they began to do some of that in the 1980s, but as this system has evolved It has become obsessed particularly with the arab world particularly in the region Money that doesn't exist has been Spend around in the region in places like syria and iraq and lebanon and so forth And i'm not sure if that return investment is going to be there Can anybody on this panel? Please tell me what iran gets out of being in in the region to the extent that it that it is and iran Is not the only country that is making this mistake of overreaching and being in the region But in the thing in the case of iran because of the lack of money and the sanctions It has even less money to spend therefore less reason to be involved in the region and should focus on on the Homefront on on building up Capacity in communities in iran that are hurting in sistan about uchastan in kurdistan In other parts of iran that you know people are hurting we see it the world sees it This is not An era where you don't see what's going on. We see what's going on. This is not propaganda Been put together by three letter intelligence agencies These are real iranian suffering and i tell the harmony is mostly it seems to me, you know Occupied we're talking about the axis of resistance You know axis of resistance doesn't fill the stomachs of empty Hungry iranians and that's that's a problem and takes me to your issue of f atf. Look The financial action task force Is not some Unusual condition that has been asked of iran every country out there and i'm quoting abdul nusra hemati who said this in one of the presidential debates every country's a member of the f atf broadly speaking and this The smaller agreements that are tied to it except iran and not north korea Right Well, there's one big difference between iran and north korea north korea doesn't really talk about attracting billions of dollars of investment and wants to be a big trading partner wants to be a hub These are things that the islamic republic wants to be wants to be attract Attractive foreign investors and all the rest of it if you want to do that Then you have to abide by international norms and rules you have to clean up your act You can't be going around in the neighborhood and acting in a militant revolutionary way and say i'm going to bring the The global order down I want to bring the global order down and then say to the same global order back by financial institutions Why don't you come and invest in iran so we can create jobs for our young? It just doesn't work that way I mean i'm not saying something that hopefully is controversial. It's so obvious as daylight but unfortunately You know f atf has been lingering now in the expediency council for i don't know how many years Mohsen Rizai who is supposed to be the secretary of the expediency council doesn't want to admit that he's the reason That this f atf bill has not gone anywhere. Again. It takes us to the issue of who's responsible Where's this issue of transparency? Accountability these are missing and that I need to fix it before you the country can move forward Thank you so much professor ziva calom. Do you think that iran? Might eventually become an Islamic state or a country such as north korea especially considering the way that The coveted 19 and then it was managed in iran particularly i'm talking about The lack of permission for the importance of vaccines from the united kingdom and the united states The few years north. Yeah, I don't think iran would ever Care into north korea Although there are many iranians who fear such such a dreadful Sorry, we cannot hear you Korean state In fact, in fact shahin. I doubt even if iran would turn into Chinese state model There are of course there are of course many many iranian Amongst heartline iranians revolution regard leaders etc Who wish that Iran will have The same revolution that happened in china that is to say Great economic achievement But no political development. There are Many iranian leaders who love chinese scenario To to be repeated in iran Have enough bread of some economic progress without political development without consideration for human rights I think even that will not happen in iran the chinese model let alone Let alone north korean model for the simple reason That There is a there is a strong historical Social and political development in iran iran was there was the first country Who fought iranian for constitutional revolution when constitutional revolution happened in iran In 115 years ago Uh, there were barely any democrat any democratic states in in asia China was a very Japan was very authoritarian russia was very much authoritarian and With the exception of india Which because of the british rule There were some democracy and democratic values There were no other country in asia that that That experienced parliamentary system political freedom and Freedom of expression freedom of press that constitutional revolution brought for it brought for For iran as I said 150 years ago since then Since then iran has a record of a number of political prisoners Of the newspapers that have shot down et cetera et cetera. So it would be very difficult with that historical background It would be very difficult To to have a north korean state In iran there are there are there are some Five to eight million iranian expatriates living in in the west and they have a strong ties with With with iranian Families relative et cetera they come and go And the government cannot prevent them from From coming to iran and visiting the relative et cetera et cetera There are there are at the moment that we are talking with each other. There are there are four million iranian students I have In social media. I have I have over one million followers by my instagram page And and and my twitter account reaches about 270 000 Followers i'm not alone. Of course, there are many people like me in iran. So it would be very difficult to imagine that that Very very autocratic government The centralized government could control 85 million iranian Population so i think that Even though there might be some iranian leaders What would love to see a north korean style of Style of political establishment in iran When the government when there is no opposition that there is no dissension When there is no criticism against government et cetera et cetera, but But It will not happen. It will not happen. It would be very difficult to foresee such a scenario for For for iran shahid Thank you. Thank you, sir Allow me to conclude this session by asking each of our panelists a question regarding their expertise Vector final final year. How do you see the future of iran and uk relations? As a result of tomorrow's outcome Thank you shahid Well, first of all before answering that but in that context I just uh would like to add the fact that i've seen the epic iran Show today at the victoria and albert which itself is a reflection of the relationship between iranian culture and iranian history and british culture and history And and i think one of the things that really stood out in that To me was the many times that iranians showed themselves to approach things In an unorthodox and unexpected way that simply didn't follow the existing rules Whether it was the rules of framing a miniature or whether it was the rules of religion at that time And we see this over and over again. I think if we think back at the time of the palavis The shah was thought of as immovable. It was Unable to be Imagine that the monarch would be overthrown and it happened. I think this is a country of extraordinary originality and of Very difficult to organize. I think people do operate very much Original approaches and viewpoints and they've got them very strongly I think that at the moment there is very little relationship between the british and the iranians Although the british too are very eccentric and I think there is an element of of commonality But I think at the moment certainly most people in leaders in the eu have said That should reisi be elected. They have a real problem with his Human rights background and that there will be issues on the other hand I think we really should look at the fact that Sanctions on the way that the foreign the western world has looked at iran Has been extremely damaging for 40 years. It's been under sanctions We can certainly nitpick about how badly it's run how it's not making the right decisions how its environment is Failing as it is the world over by the way, but the The issue I think is there is no country that has had to handle the kind of economic isolation as well as political isolation The people did not overthrow the shah with the intent to have the next several decades expressed by enmity with the u.s The world's unipolar power and it has been devastating and I think that What we would we would expect to see is perhaps some change that brings the citizenry They became citizens when the shah was overturned and that is something they value They do still elect a president many of them And I think that what we would hope to see is that this is a nadir And that there may be some improvement and iran is a country with many many years of history as the epic iran showed me today And so I think of this as just a few years In a very small period of time when clerics have been running the show So I think there could be a great number of changes over the next few decades and let's think of it that way Thank you so much. Mr. Jabid al-Farme, how do you see the future of the relations if there are any On an international level between iran and israel especially considering the new government in israel Do you think that having a coherent system of presidency judiciary and the parliament in iran Can actually help to stabilize the new Bennett's government in israel something that many others believe that happened during the netanyahu government um Before I started I have to Explain how they see is quickly describe how israeli see iran. I lived in england for 16 years And I can tell you somebody who lived in england as an iranian and somebody who lived in israel as an iranian Israelis have a much more positive view of the people of iran than than in england and here it's amazing They really always say yes, but the people are not like the regime. They always say that you know, the people of iran have a great history um And it is actually positive discrimination unfortunately We have a lot of racism against irans, but when it comes to iranians and persians. It's actually very positive It's because of the history sire is a great safe to jews it's also because The uh, there were israelis who lived in iran prior to the revolution and I haven't met one of them who didn't like the country It's also because iranian israelis who Were born in iran and moved here always speak very nicely about the culture and the people of iran And last but not least is the phenomenal success of iranian cinema post revolution iranian cinema has been very successful in israel and So this has created this image among the people of iran and even the current prime minister Naftali Bennett when he was interviewed. I remember like six months ago He went out of his way to tell when he was being interviewed by iran international I'm not Putting the people of iran in the same box as the islamic republic So so we have that issues that they go. They're very careful not to Generalize and they see the people different and the people the image of the people of iran here is actually very positive in terms of how israel sees iranian political system Look in the 1980s There was one country that was lobbying for iran in washington in the early 1980s and that was the state of israel Ariel Sharon was a big lobbyist and a huge lobbyist for iran was shimon pares whose surname actually pares in in polish means persian his surname was he was shimon persian and he also Lobby the americans with the hope that you know you sell weapons to iran. Hopefully they will open the doors with the moderates It will improve the situation israel itself sold sold lots of weapons but uh, you know Didn't work instead of improving relations with israel so after the you know towards the end of the iran iraq war that iran was Supplying weapons to some of the weapons that israel was supplying to iran to fire in the iraqis were being transferred by iran to hezbollah to fire the israeli soldiers And we saw that iran started supporting jihad islami and and hamas I think israel was one of the first countries to discover this revolutionary versus republican because the israeli saw that you know Before the before the oslo peace talks rafsan johnny said, whatever the palestinians accept It's okay with us with the israeli's whatever decision because rafsan johnny, you know, he was the sheikh sazan digi he wanted to rebuild the country didn't want to entangle the iran in all these other problems But how many want to arrange the palestine conference? Of course with mr. muhtasamid four who recently went to the other side And they you know, they said no, we will support hamas and islamic jihad and we are against any peace with the state of israel And we saw it continue with the first into father with the second into father And you know, we had the iran livious sanctions act that was the sanctions imposed during rafsan johnny The reason being that the islamic republic Maybe didn't realize and maybe did realize that the peace process was very important to president clinton and they were undermining it with support for hamas and islamic jihad so It's not changing and unfortunately have to say I think we're going to see more of the same With the bened although I think he's going to manage our relations with america more responsibly but with regards to iran I don't think we're going to see any change. Thank you so much. Let me go to mr. rafa How do you see the future of iran relations with biden administration in two and a half minutes, please I have to be very quick. I'm gonna look very quickly on israel because the big issue is actually very relevant to the policy debate on iran here in washington You cannot separate the issue of israel From what's going on in us iran relations. So let's keep that there because frankly You know, united states and iran can sign five nuclear agreements in vienna over the next five days But that would not mean us iran relations will be normal the only time I can see and I speak to you here from washington The only time I can see us iran relations being normalized Is when iran takes a very different approach towards the state of israel and it's not some big conspiracy theory that i'm speaking of The western world united states included want to see iran take a different approach to question of israel You cannot have one un member Threaten basically another uan Un member and I know the israelis have carried out operations in iran and is a two-way street I don't know that but we also know who started this fight in 1979. It was not israelis. Um, I Look Also, if I may you only gave me two minutes, but very quickly to our friend. Hi, sir. Like other guests Yeah, professor ziba kelam said china Is preferred by some hardliners in iran and unlike may or unfortunately I cannot go to the country of my birth either So I would love for professor ziba kelam to tell those hardliners who might believe it because I know he disagrees with him China too has good relations with israel china too Trades with the rest of the world china too has questions about what iran is doing in the region So the idea that china is going to save the day for the islamic republic It's just not going to happen very quickly on biden president biden wants to put the iranian nuclear issue aside Stop the nuclear clock from ticking but this is a president who's focused on american domestic politics There are a lot of issues in united states that need to be fixed He wants to be the president that focuses on the home front and not You know engage in any more foreign policy kind of questionable policies particularly in the middle east Thank you. Thank you so much. I had more time and I didn't even know it, but that's fine. I'll pass Thank you so much. Let me go to go to professor ziba kelam Sir, how do you see the future of what is left of iranian reformist front? I I began my My discussion with With this phrase that this election Is the landmark? Of the islamic republic history now one of the point one of the elements Which actually make that landmark is what has happened to the reformist Now I think this election More or less brought the end of the reformist. You know shahin that is There is a old medieval saying that That when the king was dead in in britain The courtier used to say that the king is dead long live the king now reformists As we know them Mr. Khatami and and the rest I think they are dead But long live the the reformists because the forces The reasons that created the reform movement in iran 24 years ago Are much stronger today than 24 years ago those forces They have not disappeared They they they have not evaporated. I've gone to to To the sky if anything They are more powerful as a latent force which are pressing for change In iran than they were 24 years ago So although The the leaders the prominent figure of the reformists are dead Because people no longer respect them people no longer believe in them people no longer obey them People no longer have any any any any faith in them, but the forces for change Amongst younger generation iranian amongst iranian youth iranian woman Minority sonnis, etc. Etc. Is much stronger Than they ever were in In in 24 years ago And I believe that sooner or later This latent force Would actually create New generation of Of reformist leaders In iran So I I think we would we would we would see Reformist movement In future of iran but with different with different Figures with different leaders. Thank you so much. Thank you so much I want to once again. Thank you. Dr. Rukh Sadafana from King's College London, Mr. Nair Javid Anfa from IDC Austria, Mr. Alexi Vatan Kha from Middle East Institute and Dr. Sadafana Kalam from University of Tehran. Now the floor is open for questions Dr. Gropi beautiful then thank you very much to to you Shaqin for brilliantly Charing this to our guests for So eloquently explaining to even people like like myself, right? So we're not familiar with this So you have provided a such a nuanced picture Amazing. So thank you very much for that I know that it is pretty late, especially in iran in in Tehran. We have a number of questions Please our guests forgive me. I'm not gonna be able obviously to ask All of your questions. So we're just gonna be asking one for each Of our panelists Professor Dibacaran, let's start from you Ghassem here in the chat ask Something very interesting and in my opinion provocative given what you've just said What is your prediction prediction professor? 10 years from now As for democracy in iran. Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel? Thank you Yes, I see I see A beautiful sun not only not only light I see a beautiful Sun at the end of the tunnel because as I said the new generation of iranian social media Iranian intellectual iranian expatriate you simply cannot Put them all in evin prison So I think there would be There would be much hope And light at the end of the tunnel In 10 years time Many many thanks, uh professor for this um doctor for my friend, for my friend. Let's Let's start from you. Um I I'm I'm pretty much putting up like two questions together and I'm not asking this with any Like arrogance or whatsoever, but if you could call the shots Uh Personally speaking, what would an ideal iran look like ask saranja? What would you change? And uh, I do not want to me I I don't want to be disrespectful or anything that especially if you and the other panace cannot go back to iran So please like excuse me, but given Everything that you said and a number of the question here. I think that this is very an interesting Question to ask you the floor is yours doctor. Thank you Well, I think an ideal iran would certainly be one economically that was flourishing better than it is today And so my ideal could start coming in quite Soon and that is that there be a signature and a rejoining of the jcpoa and a great deal of compliance And I think that the interesting element of that is first of all I think we'd all sleep better just knowing that the nuclear program is going down and I speak for Iranians inside as well as outside Iran on that one And I think the entire temperature of the gulf would we go down and I think that another Ideal element would be for a more regional understanding both in terms of security and in terms of Political engagement and economic trade would be very helpful And we're already seeing that with the renewal or the beginning of the Saudi Iranian discussions we're seeing that in in order to try to solve the Yemen problem we're also seeing a lot more discussion between the UAE and Iran and that is very heartening because both of those two countries on that side of the gulf really Have much have the strongest militaries and I think it's very important for there to be greater peace at this point I think that having some kind of engagement with the United States is helpful I think that in many ways what is I think unfortunately a lot of people that are signing the are thinking that we will get a jcpoa Are thinking okay, let's sign that and then we'll have this whole laundry list of other negotiations that will go through and I think that is very unlikely because the Security elements as has been amply pointed out by my fellow colleagues is simply not in the portfolio of the president And I think that it's important My ideal would be to give Iran some breathing room to come out of the covid come out of the sanctions And then perhaps to be able to see whether the next generation which dr Ziba kalam has talked about and indeed we're seeing the end of the revolutionary generation It is a period of turnover So let's see what they come up with and my ideal would be that it begin to handle A number of the internal problems that have been caused I think because a lot of it is just simply pressure on the outside Any country for any reason that's pressured on the outside is going to then put pressure on the inside and that's been the irony I think of sanctions is that it's led to poverty It's led to statism and in a sense created helped create the very Kind of state that has it was designed to try to avoid So reduce the sanctions increase the human rights increase the opportunities inside and increase the Negotiations on the outside and it would be a much better place and that would be an ideal Many thanks doctor for this really really really appreciate um director baton ha actually Same question to you, especially given that you have mentioned the return Or the lack of return of all those minds engineers teachers Also the people Of iran descent who live outside who could really turn things around How would you mean? Could you please comment on that as well? Thank you In the interest of time, I'll be very quick, but I think I'm not alone when I say this um Just a few days ago The body of a young toddler wash stopper was found Well as actually was found months ago But the identity of this toddler was confirmed as an iranian Kurdish child that in an attempt to cross from france to the united kingdom The boat capsized and the you know the family drowned and this child child's body was found months months later the Cold waters of of a norwegian fjord It makes you want to cry that this is what happened to iran That iranians are found drowning off the coast of papa new guinea in the fjords of norway the british champ I mean it just what has ayatollah how many Got to say for this. Why do people leave if things are so great? Why is there a five to seven million iranian diaspora that didn't exist before 1979 Why do iranians want to leave if things are so nice and that is a question you have to ask and remind them every day Because he can choose to be the leader of a small iran within a large iran But he has to fear that day the large iran wakes up and wants the old iran back and in iran That's for all iranians because right now it's a lot homony is held bent on having iran for him and he's few in a circle My my proposition to you is that's not going to be sustainable one day And he might be gone by that day. He might be somebody else But this approach this path of my way or the highway is simply not going to be sustainable in the long term Many thanks the director of atkha and mr. Javan the fire I mean a last question to you if you could send a message from israel to the people of iran Maybe before tomorrow. What would that be? Thank you? um I hope that the two countries will be reunited in friendship and I hope that we will be able to Uh travel to iran and iranians can travel here and I hope that israel can share especially its experience In uh in what technology we are the only country in this region who has a water surplus with iran to help iran fight the uh fight the Drought and I welcome And I would welcome dialogue with the with the people of iran on the question of palestine You know, I think many of them have a very rightful point that they want to They want to support the people of palestine also But they just don't agree with the with the extremist language that's coming out of iran so hopefully We can have debates right here in tel aviv with the with iranians on the question of palestine and the question of Israel the two countries have a lot of Things they can contribute to each other they can learn from each other What's going on is on completely unnecessary and it was started unfortunately by the By the post-revolutionary regime in iran because the regime lives the thrives in isolation You know, um, yes, iran has been for 40 years on the sanctions But on numerous occasions it facilitated the the imposition of these sanctions with its with its act So i'm i'm just hoping and dreaming about the day when we can travel to iran and iranians can come here and the two countries can do a lot Especially on the question of drought I'm sure that my students are sick to death of hearing me going on and on about the question of drought But I think that's something that that is of great concern and this is something that israel can do a lot To help And also I hoped up some of my students who learn about iran can make and visit iran and so they can see the country for its beauty from first time Thanks to iran inshallah Amen beautiful then Thank you. Thank you. Thank you very much like to once again to I mean a kid's college long on the school security it is as Verona our wonderful chair a shahim odaris Thank you for putting this wonderful panel together and to all our guests and our friends from the united kingdom italy and obviously iran and um And the international arena. Thank you again. Hopefully we'll continue this This discussion. I mean a little on have a great night again, especially me the professor and I know that it is later in in In iran. So again, thank you Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much. I mean for this and have a have a great rest of the day or or goodnight Thank you for joining us. Thank you for joining Good night everyone. Good night. Thank you for joining us and giving us your time Let's go