 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The division around matchups in the NFL are now all set after last night The Dallas Cowboys took down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and look at this slate in the divisional round It is a fun one from top to bottom tremendous quarterback place and really fun head coaches in this one as well So we're gonna break things down and let you know Where my numbers are showing a value take our first look at the divisional round break that down and also Talks and PGA Brandon Gadoula getting you set for this week's American Express. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire.com. My name is Jim Sanis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com here to take a look at the NFL's Divisional round breakdown. Where are my numbers are showing value as of right now? We'll break down the games from not showing value to let you know where I would be at the market Or to move and stuff like that just generally break down our first look at these games as mentioned coming up later on Brandon Gadoula will join us. He will help break down the American Express may PGA betting perspective We have NBA and NHL coming up tomorrow with Tom Vecchio Full NFL slate preview coming up on Thursday will break down all four games with Ryan Williams Then also a player prop show coming your way on Friday going the whole lot of fun We'll dive in the division around here in just one second First a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast as mentioned a lot of good stuff Coming up this week here on the show Four different sports being covered including three NFL shows So a lot of good stuff coming your way all in this same feed Just search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Looking to get more out of the NFL this season Well, now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the Fandall Sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under Yards plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game parlay So don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in free bets when you join Fandall and make every moment war with Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states only first online real money wager only refund issued is non Withthrob a free bet that expired 14 days restrictions applies to the terms of sportsbook. Fandall calm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or is a fandal dot com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next up to 533 4 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Kansas KS gambling help calm in Kansas Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help org in New York 1-877 a hope and wire text open y in Wyoming 1-805-2247 hundred or in West Virginia 1-800 gambler net Let's dig in out the divisional round here the opening markets over at Fandall sportsbook and let you know where I am Seeing value right now and when I first plugged in my numbers for this round Talking about spots where I see value not a whole lot as of right now in three of the four games I have the spread and the total within a point of the market for both markets both the spread and the total and That's really tough. I typically don't make bets in that department And honestly, I think it's important to make sure we don't alter our process just to get action these times this time Yeah, it's if you're playing for entertainment fine. That's okay. That's you know as long as you're within your means That's okay. I don't want to change my process My process says not a lot of value on the board right now Also talk about those games in a bit because I want to let you know where I'm at So if the markets do move before we talk again Thursday, you can react properly, but in one game I've got value in three separate markets total spread money line and all three are correlated together And that's the Bengals against the bills in Orchard Park I want the Bengals spread scaled up with their money line and also I want to add under 50 and a half as well the spread It's at four and a half at Fandle It's five other places I think you can actually have five and a half at that MGM right now So shop around on that get it as long as you can the money line is plus 198 at Fandle Sportsbook right now that did lengthen this morning as well And that's about as long as you get it as of that time But for both those numbers look around see what you can get I'm showing value with where they were at earlier, so probably means I'm wrong I guess typically but the market moving against me I think that there is value in the Bengals regardless because I'm accounting for the Bengals offensive line injuries here because in the past the past few weeks I've been giving the Bengals a manual bump because they made a scheme change in week five And if you look at them from week five on they've been a very efficient offense like Outside of the chiefs. They've been the most efficient offense in football since they changed their scheme And so I stopped doing that stop bumping them up So it's factoring in weeks one through four before the offensive line gelled They were running this kind of weird scheme that teams had figured out They were very solid offense teams had them figured out so bumping them down from where they were previously and I think that is accounting for the offensive line injuries and also, you know It is a lot of sample where they haven't been fully healthy So I'm bumping the Bengals down from where I had them before But my one model the one that has tested it really well so far this year actually makes us spread 1.81 so the bills are the better team because I have home field less than 1.81 but Not by that much and I think the important thing here in looking at what that that number is telling us is that Even after I count for the injuries the Bengals still show value and part of the reason I didn't make a huge adjustment down for the Bengals despite likely not having Jonah Williams for this game is that they've played without key guys For a lot of that sample Jamar Chase missed a large chunk in that time T Higgins Was scheduled to play in games then got hurt So he didn't play and they were still efficient in those games despite those really big injuries I think that Jamar Chase matters more than Jonah Williams So I'm okay factoring that in and they've also got a full week to plan ahead for not having Jonah Williams at left tackle So it is a downgrade for the Bengals, but I can't downgrade them enough to get them To being loud at the market here. It's also important to focus on the other side of this game We know that the Bengals have offensive line injuries, but Bills didn't play so great in that Dolphins game special and offense. They're volatile offense They weren't chucking at downfield a ton on Sunday, which is very good. You know, I love downfield Chuck's Josh Allen was a fish it on those pass attempts So that's that's a good thing for sure and the bills in my the model that likes them more It still has them second in my power ranks beyond just achieves so they're a very good team, but they're a volatile and That's why I think the money line for the Bengals and Tyson, you know, it's a more volatile market You're getting plus 198 there the implied odds Hovering between 34 and 33 percent whereas I've got the Bengals win odds above 40 percent It's a big big gap. We don't often get in the money line market, especially in a game that will get a lot of attention So we're betting into a volatile market for a volatile team So if you wanted to go with just the money line, I'm not gonna push back on you I think that makes a lot of sense but we are getting a lot of leeway and getting four and a half five five and a half points in this game and I think that I'm okay to take that flexibility as well So I think that what we're doing here is focusing all this energy on the Bengals deficiencies while ignoring the bills deficiencies So for me, I'm gonna scale this one I'm gonna put, you know, as have it effectively be one unit but point seven five on the spread point two five on the money line Therefore if they cover I profit if they win I have a bit more upside baked in there So scaling a bit. I think that allows me to feel pretty good about my risk assessment of this game So a bit more in the spread regardless, but if they happen to win a bit more upside baked in there I think both those bets are good if you want to pick and choose totally fine by me If you force me to choose I would go at the money line because again the volatility in the bills is part of the handicap here So I do like both but I prefer the money line if you were to force me to choose The total in the under there is a couple things. The first one is that it's a tight game At least based on my numbers and a tight game Correlates with a lower total because you know fewer points applied Between the two teams the second thing is that there is some potential weather in this game There are 13 mile per hour winds right now in Archer Park a 40% chance of snow I don't care too much about the snow personally, but the market does tend to which means I'm trying to value the under and I think the market will probably bet this game lower as Things go along. I care about the wind aspect. I actually do care about that It's it's high enough where it actually is an issue it does downgrade the total in this game The Bengals offense can run the football The bills have been better recently, but still not great in that regard that keeps the clock running It also helps the outlook on the Bengals side of this game So it is risky to have everything from this week tied up in just one game because it could go a wire and it Could go not the way I planned it to go and in that case I could have just a rough week, but you know not betting a whole lot here because again we're Implementing proper approaches to gambling not changing our our unit sizes based on just the fact we have fewer bets out there So I feel okay with that So right now scaling the Bengals to profit if they cover and have a great day if they win You can get five five and a half on the spread with plus 190 in the money line And then also I do want under 50 and a half for the total in that game as far as other games on tap for this week I would monitor the Jags and the Giants spreads I've got the Eagles here by six point seven against the Giants the cheese fair by seven point seven against the Jags If those current spreads were to extend from seven and a half and eight and half respectively Value could open up there. I don't think it will but you know Keeping an eye. I'd have interest in the Eagles Giants total if that were to go down It's currently 48 and a half if it were to get down to like 47. I'd be in I'm not expecting that to happen But I would be in at that point. I don't assume I'll be able to get action either of those games But we'll talk more about them on Thursday if we happen to see some movements You know movement toward the Eagles toward the cheese toward the under and Eagles Giants Then I could see myself buying into those respective markets just not expecting that to be the case as For San Francisco Dallas. I'm kind of surprised the open here was four I thought when I went to bed last night, I'd be betting Dallas Because my number seven at four point two two and one model and three point oh seven and the other But I thought there was a chance this game would open at like six given the sentiment the market has had on the 49ers recently So I thought I'd be betting that the Cowboys, which I'd be fine with personally Maybe it does extend. I don't think we see a lot of I don't think we'll see this move towards Dallas Right now. It's minus one fourteen on the plus four So if it were to move you'd be more likely to get to four and a half stuff like that so I'd probably need about five and a half to buy in the Cowboys Maybe six but I do think it'll inch towards San Francisco as we goes along given how high the market has been on them for a long time So other the games outside of Bill's Bengals I will have my closest eye on that one I'm not in it yet But I will be watching it to during the week to see if I can wind up getting something there so right now it's just the bills Bengals game, but Keeping an eye on that one and we'll talk more about all these games coming up on Thursday to get a full reading division around Love Ryan Williams on for that to get his read on these divisional round games That's gonna wrap up the NFL for right now that we'll go through the recap of last week and just a bit But first we got to talk some golf because coming up this week We have got the American Express and it is a unique event because we got a couple of courses in play by couple I mean three for this one. So we got to bring in Brandon Gadoula He is a senior managing editor over at number far You can find Brandon on Twitter at Gadoula 13 Brandon happy. I was gonna say Monday. It is not Monday. It is Tuesday Happy Tuesday to you. How you doing today? I'm good Got some construction right outside the window. So hopefully there's no issues, but it does harken back because you know, you know, I'm sure everyone listen to knows we go way back But for a stretch when I had a particular apartment, I had a construction right outside my window seemingly every single time we would record So kind of getting some flashbacks, but I don't think it's as bad Now upstairs away from it. But yeah, things are good. And I think I think we'll get through this You'll be able to hear me. I'm assuming you mean nostalgic flashbacks like you wish the construction were more constant, correct? Yeah, constant look right outside my window and see someone just wielding a stop sign Miss those days, I hope it's not related to the to the construction There's the person out there like, you know doing a spinny thing with like the with like a stop sign Just totally unrelated unhinged stuff. I want that personally, you know, honestly people could do that and who's ever gonna find out You would and then everyone because the whole world listens to this podcast and they would know So like you're not asking people what they're doing and if they were doing if they're not doing anything And they just choose to spend their time holding a Rotating slow and stop sign. They could just make something up if I were to quit I think that might be my first choice as far as alternate career paths. I'd at least look into it Okay, let's talk about the American Express coming up this weekend as mentioned It's a three-course setup. So a bit of a unique event in that regard So Brandon what do we need to know about these courses about the setup before we take a look at the field for this weekend Yes, so the course rotation I think the key thing is that they're par 72s and generally when you hear par 72 for the pros That means birdies and par 5 scoring and that's basically the case for this week but also Something that can maybe go a little bit overlooked is like yeah in a way. There's some variants because there's You know, you're not playing the same The same course for two days before a cut but with a three-course setup. That's a 54 hole cut which Does actually reduce variants doesn't always mean that There are chalky winners here But we do see some big names with some of the best recent performances here If I look at strokes gained averages over the past five years The leaders for among this field include Patrick Cantley John Rom Adam Hadwin Tony Fienal, Sung J. M. Cameron Davis, Scotty Schaeffler, definitely No, no slouches on that list in terms of overall performance, but yeah going back to like the scoring It's the winning scores have been at least 20 under since 2007 22 under and five straight years Two years ago. This was just a two-course rotation But either way, you know more or less the same So if you really would like to dig in just just take that note But I don't really think it's that relevant for this week to be digging into what happened here exactly two years ago But you know cut line seven eight ish under par through through 54 holes. So you know, we need scoring and For anyone who ever listens to us talk golf they might be thinking well when we when we talk easy courses we talk You know more variants because there are more golfers who are viable the best golfers who Really have an advantage by being able to score on or you know make par on difficult holes If if all the holes are easy kind of like reduces the advantage that they have but We're also getting 54 guaranteed holes. So I think things kind of level out there It's also worth noting that we get shot link data only at the the PGA West Stadium course I guess I should probably mention all the courses here before I wrap this up But the Pete Dye Stadium course the Nicholas tournament course and then laquinta country club The final round will be at the stadium course. But yeah, so you don't have full data, but basically what you need here is Driving distance iron play and putting gotta go low and I think whoever's putter gets hot and the ball striking is decent That's who will end up winning this week and the mesh between the Presence of three rounds before the cut and the fact that it is a low-scoring event is very interesting So we go to the outright market right now John Rom the favorite of plus 5 50 You don't typically see that at an event where the winners will be 22 23 under so that to me I think stood out at first. We also have Patrick Cantlay 950 Scottish chef for 10 to 1 Tony Fina 15 to 1 bring any value for you in the outright market right now at Fando sportsbook Yeah, so, you know, we can talk about like the in theory the variance the scoring But this is a really top-heavy field and so we may or may not get one of the long shot winners Just because you know of the the scoring setup, but if you want to bet John Rom All power to you. I'm not quite there if I'm betting someone at the very very top of the board I would go with Scotty Scheffler, but For me, I think where my card is gonna start is actually 21 to 1 With two names actually Cameron young And I'll say this I'll preface that I like Sandra Schroff lay my motto like Sandra Schroff lay But we did see him withdraw with a back injury last time we saw him two weeks ago at the tournament champions So a little bit nervous about that wills a la tourists liked him and his return You know overall decent numbers, but they might not be a hundred percent So I'm good with just shifting over to Cameron young at 21 to 1 on Fando sportsbook He is you know, he's got the distance. He's second in the field over the past 50 rounds and driving distance according to data golf He is first in strokes gained off the T in that sample 7th T degree in 26th an approach I played here last year finished 40th So he's got some reps at the setup, but the 40th itself is like not something that we should worry about That's not very indicative especially for someone on the rise such as as Cam young and then also 21 to 1 Alex Sung JM a different kind of player not as long He's also coming off of a missed cut, but that was a week where The irons just weren't quite there But the irons were really good at the tournament champions finished T 13 there It's a small field, but it's a tough field and I think we could take advantage of that I think that the luster of Sung JM's debut has long worn off and anyone coming off of a missed cut Doesn't really get a whole lot of attention. So I don't want to go too long down the leaderboard For or I guess the odds board to find my favorite outright because I do think it's gonna be Tough to beat out all these names at the top. So yeah for me Sung J and Cam young the two Outrights I like most for the week and with those two guys you can easily envision them hanging in a tough field So I think that makes a lot of sense. We've seen young do it in like 16 straight majors So it's it's not tough at all for him They're about 21 to 1 at fangal sportsbook like you said right now not a ton of non Outrights posted over at fangal sportsbook So you can either focus on something you do like there or if there are guys You think are well suited for a T 10 market Maybe some guys whose outrides are longer than you expect. Maybe can't see them winning but Might have some value in the top 10 market. Which are you turning to in terms of the non-outrides right now? Yeah so We have Taylor Montgomery to top 10 at plus 410 on fangal sportsbook like that Finish G12 last week last time we saw him despite bad iron play, which is kind of the thing from Montgomery He's got like neutral irons, which I don't love really want the ball striking to be there But his putter is so good that I'm starting not to care He's been top 15 or better in seven of eight PGA tour starts If we need the putter to be on for these birdies to fall Be easy overall course kind of de-emphasizes that the pure Necessity for the irons to be phenomenal. I think that Montgomery rates out well Aaron wise the top 10 as well plus 450. He's a good ball striker. He's been top 24 Top 25 and four of his fast five. The putter's been there lately Like those numbers for Aaron wise to top 10 and then a little bit of a longer one kind of mirrors Kind of blends I guess I should say if you want like a longer shot in the outright market But Taylor pendrith to top 10 plus 750 Like that he has fifth and strokes gained off the tee over the past 50 rounds 12th and overall ball striking Short games not really there Specifically like the wedges, but you know if the putter It is is even remotely awake. I love that recipe for him to take advantage of the scoring opportunities this week He's gained strokes off the tee in 15 straight measured events Pendrith also a guy who can make some birdies in large part because he can hammer it off the tee But if you need to go low Pedrith can go low and I think that with the tee 10 It's good because you don't need him to be an outlier in the putting department He can be neutral or maybe even a bit negative and still be Contending for a top 10. So I find that really interesting for him specifically. You think the tee 10 is the ideal market to bet him Yeah, I mean it's it's I know we talk about top 10 numbers But I really find that with with golf in particular the better value comes at the Not at the top of the board a top 10. Yeah, which it probably sounds like those are the most consistent top 10 You know finishers and that's you know, that's the case But maybe the market accounts for that well and if you look everyone loves a long shot I love them. I recommend a lot of them. I bet a lot of them, but sometimes it makes it makes sense to Play a little bit safer and whenever there's the value there and I do see it with with penders this week and the two tee 10 bits the bets that hit for you last week Matt Coucher and Andrew Putnam both five to one. So, you know, not a bad bad range to live in at all for these markets That is Brandon gadoola check him out on Twitter at gadoola 13. We'll be back later on today We'll be doing the DFS show that'll be up in the number fire daily fantasy podcast If you want to play some a fan dual golf for this weekend with Brandon Good luck to you for the American Express and we'll talk to you once again next week Sounds good. Best of luck everyone. Let's let's hit some winners. Alrighty. Thank you. Once again to Brandon Check out his full his full simulations are up over on number fire calm breaking down DFS angles and betting angles to confine that over at number fire Com if you want some more time to dig into it Brandon no Brandon's numbers are saying about this week for now Let's close up shop and talk about what happened here last week on the show the bets recommend I'll start things off on the golf side of things and we did just talk with Brandon right now there for the Sony open Brandon's outrides were on Tom Kim Brian Harmon Andrew Putnam the winner was Seawoo Kim So not in that group did hit the Putnam tee 10 though He was five to one other top 10 bet was Matt Coucher plus 500 now the Coucher one was part of a tie So depending on the book you better that you might not have gotten the full five to one I think bet MGM is the only one that does doesn't out of count for ties Fandal does count for ties. So you would not have gotten the full five to one there But still a good hit regardless on Coucher five to one and Putnam five to one other top ten bets Billy Horschel Brian Harman Brendan Todd and Mark Hubbard none of those hits depends on which ones you decide to bets But good call for Brandon on Coucher and Putnam. He had the Putnam outright at 55 to one Putnam Putted pretty poorly on Thursday and then got red hot Friday through Sunday If he hadn't been struggling on the Greens, but that first round might have made a push to the win I like putting them a lot too. So bits out about that But either way good week for Brandon on the Sony open side of things on the NFL side We had Ryan Williams with me on Thursday for the preview show find Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander Underscore W pretty even week for Ryan If we start things off with the non Monday bets He had the Jags plus two and a half that was a hit 49ers minus nine and a half and the Ravens plus eight and a half all those want a pitting The misses were the Jags Chargers under forty seven and a half had the Bills minus thirteen and a half and the Ravens Bengals under 40 and a half so three and three in the non Monday night bets We had Ryan on last night to preview Bucks and the Cowboys in that one he wanted the Bucks plus two and a half, you know the Bucks played poorly I have Bucks plus three two so Obviously that did not go well But Ryan did hit Tony powered over seventy one and a half rushing plus receiving yards He also had Michael Gallop over thirty five and a half receiving yards Gallop had a touchdown there almost go over term It did not and then the misses for Ryan last night's were CDLAM over six and a half receptions And then the touchdown bets Mike Evans two-to-one almost got that on the the long ball after the onsite kick Russell gauge plus five fifty Hope he is okay After he was on a board coming off of the field but Ryan three Two and three in last night's game with two misses being two of the misses being longer touchdown bets but Pretty even week for Ryan across the board and check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander scored W We'll have him back again on Thursday to preview his thoughts on the divisional round We have Brandon on to talk the prop show last week again fine brand on Twitter I could do a 13 and find his work over at number fire calm Brandon with five and two for the week pretty good week for him overall Both misses came in last night's game Those were a Leonard for net over 38 and a half rushing yards and the Tony powered any time touched five he got Stopped the two in one of these runs then called back for holding then he got another run got I think back inside the 10 So he came close. I had that one personally as well couldn't quite get that but he did get Or I guess we got the powered 71 and a half rushing plus receiving that was from the Monday show so powered still profitable for us despite not scoring for that one Pretty anytime touchdown hits for Brandon. We're all on a Saturday a Sunday He had Zay Jones over 50 and a half receiving yards. He had a long touchdown. He was around like 74 I think total so long touchdown definitely help but that's well within a Zay Jones's Repertoire with at this point in time. He had gave Davis over 48 and a half Davis had like 120 receiving yards We talked about him potentially being an alt market target as well I think he was plus money to get over 60 receiving yards. He had 120 So good call by Brandon on game Davis Travis etn Brandon had him over 70 and a half rushing yards He went for I think over a hundred in that game so well over there Seyquan Barkley any time touchdown was minus 120 the Seyquan scored right away in that game So easy hit there and later hit TJ Hawkinson over four and a half receptions minus 122 Hawkinson Went well over that one too. We saw the Giants focus almost all their attention on just Jefferson So made a lot of sense to go with Hawkinson there. He had done well in them the first matchup did well again there So good calls by Brandon and a good prop show for Brandon on Friday as well as for me a two-and-one week Very sweaty on the two wins the two wins were the Jags money line got bad CLV on this I had it at 104 it closed at around 118 116 somewhere in there and my gosh Oh Probably didn't deserve it But we're gonna the money spends the same regardless not as they like that is part of the reason why My other model like the Jags is because they are very efficient passing offense Which means when they when they have to throw they could throw efficiently and they did so That's part of the thesis behind betting them. So I don't feel that bad about I don't feel like I got super lucky That's like part of the reason why you bet teams like that Because they can claw their way out of deficits and they did just that as they've done Several times this year a lot of times when I've been on them if I felt It's been great, you know, the Jags been a very good team to me not only them yet this week Maybe we'll add them on later, but it was good to hit the Jags money line at even at a bad number other one I didn't think would be a sweat last night That was the Bucks Cowboys under 45 and a half the live total is down to like 36 and a half but They kept converting for touchdowns every single time. So yeah, I could so you could say oh, you got lucky because Brett Mahur Couldn't make an extra point, but also like I kind of got unlucky in the touchdown variants in terms of like Scored every time they were in scoring range. So for both Jags The Jags money line and the Bucks Chargers under the Bucks Cowboys under you could say it was lucky But also like again, I don't know there were some things that worked against me too So I don't feel that that bad about it money spends the same I think that they were good analysis on both them. So I feel good about that Bucks plus three probably bad analysis did get good closing line value on that as it close to two and a half as Expected, you know thought the market would be on the Bucks here for the most part and it did get to two and a half And it stayed there Obviously the Cowboys just turned things up good for them and like I love watching Dak Prescott when he's on I think Michael Parsons is phenomenal. So Yeah, I was kind of a bummer to lose the Bucks plus three given I got some CLV on that But I think I'd rather watch the Cowboys next week anyway. So not too bad there two and one week for me and You know, I'm pretty good about things overall. We'll see if we can Correctly diagnose that Bengals bills game to run it back once again for the divisional round That is all that we have here for today though on covering the spread as mentioned We'll be back once again tomorrow. Tom Becky. I was gonna swing by he's gonna talk some NBA NHL with us Get overall NHL overview from Tom's. We haven't talked NHL on the show as of yet We'll talk some NBA and NHL bets for Wednesday night We'll be doing that tomorrow to get that as it is posted to make sure you get those numbers before they move Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a rating in our view and also check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page Big thank you to Brandon Caduola for swinging by earlier on to break down his thoughts on the American Express fine Brandon Twitter at Caduola 13. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-e-s want to thank you all for tuning in. Good luck to you with any bets You got going for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some basketball and some hockey This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network