 Now, Nigeria's stock market would enjoy the strong first quarter with returns exceeding 39% is expected to face headwinds in the second quarter of this year. Now, analysts anticipate a slowdown driven by three factors, rising fixed income needs due to the CBN rate for hikes, a decline in dividend payouts compared to Q1 and the potential dilution of darkened stocks due to the recently announced recapitalization exercise. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the Nigerian stock exchange gave return to 39.47% despite a double rate hike by the CBN. However, at the end of the first trading week in the second quarter, the equities markets saw bearish sentiment which continued on Monday, with the market decreasing by 0.38%, or 222 billion at the close of trading, pushing lower the market's return year-to-date to 37.81%. The monetary policy community MPC last month raised a monetary policy rate, MPR, to 24.75%, representing a 200 basis points increase. On the show today, we will review the first quarter performance and outlook for the second quarter, banking and the impact on the market will come to Business Insight and Plus TV Africa. I am Justin Acadonia. The Nigerian stock market has experienced a bullish trend since the year began this year, but witness and significant capital gains for companies affiliated with some of the nation's prominent entrepreneurs, including Tony Illumelu, Femi Othedola and Jim Ovia, throughout the first quarter of 2024. These companies are Zenith Bank, United Bank for Africa, UBA, Epi and Hauden's transnational corporation of Nigeria and Transco hotels, which alongside other firms contributed to the impressive $159.13 trillion capital trade volume on the Nigerian exchange limited this quarter. Collectively, these companies owned in part by the trio saw their capital sold by $2.64 trillion on the NGX by the end of this quarter that just passed, while Othedola, Illumelu and Ovia may not be the sole stakeholders of their respective companies. The capital gains are intricately linked to the overall performance of the NGX. My guest, Ambrose Omodion, is the chief research officer at Invest Data Consult and Limited. Ambrose is a well-respected investment and company analyst with over 20 years of experience. He is known for his work as an equities analyst, his training sessions for investors and his weekly webinars. He is also a prominent expert on the Nigerian capital market, providing analysis and insights to investors, the government and market regulators. Ambrose Omodion joins me now to discuss further on this recent development. Many thanks for joining me, Ambrose. That's what I've been meaning, Dostoe. Right. These indeed are leisure. Let's just dive straight into it if we may now. The Nigerian stock market gained 39.8% in the first quarter of 2024, becoming the second best-performing stock amid economic headwinds. What does this really mean for the nation's capital market, despite a double-rate hike by the central bank of Nigeria? Actually, it tells you that the market has its own life, despite the economic experience of headwinds. I think that our market is now returning good gains for the investors. That's why every investor in the Nigerian market should understand how to invest intelligently and also follow trends. Don't forget that our students will call December, which was extended to the month of January. And also January Galloping is a lot of work, expectation of earnings, and also also that the other performance of the listed components for the previous year was also in green, apart from the Maron Center that has no FFs losses. That also triggers investors' expectations that yes, we have to see a better number from these components. Yes, we know that during the previous year, as from September and November, the ICPN was also a friend that banks will not pay from their FFs gain. Investors will have a pattern in those things into their work, you know, in their decision. But for the month of January and January market sales retreated as well at the pace of all over the world, which was acknowledged by many investors. But in the month of February, we saw the market pulling back at the rate of profit taking. Any market in the world, this is the dynamics of the market. We saw that the market has really set to be worth a pullback at the rate of profit taking or also information that we want to diversify that goes from that new sector or another instrument. But we saw that in the month of February, it was the profit taking in the market, or in the month of March, it was the rebound. And that was a set of what listed the company, especially the power company from Transcore Power. It impacted the index or the month of March, which also had capital, no rebounding powerfully. We saw the life of Gregorio Guguenasaya, so 1,000 Naira, no production amount. That also impacted the index, and it turns the worth of money forward for investors. But in the generation, we saw that some industries or some folk called the Settura Index saw a pullback because of all profit taking also. But the book water for the first quarter of the year, firstly, is a good market for Nigeria. And that also have given an insight, woke respect in the month of April and the second half and the second quarter of the year, but not, no, investors are not panicking. Like I said earlier, in the month of the first quarter, we saw about 600 basic points increase in rate. And anywhere in the world, when you say high, high in rate, it's a capital market that is very good, but it has suffered for it. I will tell you, they have correlation on that. When there's high interest rate, no, we see that interest moves toward to free loan, how we call it, free asset or low risk asset, let me put that way. In any business, no, totally free, because even if they're born, they're running to the 21st century. There's also a risk. So, no, don't forget what's going on in Ghana. Sometimes it's not like where is less risk enough to move their money because of all interest rate other than high. And also, the rate of high also by the recipient also also to kind of checkmate inflation at the same time attract foreign investors to the economy. Today, we can see that the inflow of, you know, FS has also helped the recipient to manage the, you know, the crisis was experiencing in the exchange market. But for me, that is just a little thing in solving our problem. We need, we don't want to attract foreign investors with high interest rate and push the economy towards the contraction. As I speak now, the private sector already know crying out, there's no confidence because all funds are going to work to the fiscal market, fiscal instrument, because of high interest rate. That means we are trying to satisfy the foreign investors and also checkmate inflation or the expense of the economy. We do not suggest inflation is having a toll on the economy. We need to balance the ratio. So when we saw the basic point high, you know, the economy will go in for it. All right, let's try and get some sectoral review and get some indices and analysis as well. You know, for instance stocks that surpassed the NGX, ASI include the Gary Gupa, which accounts for about 150.6 percent dangote cement, about 114.7 percent in Boa cement amongst other ones. But I want to, I want to get your analysis now, your review of the NGX 30 and plus somehow the, you know, the banking subsector actually did for the first quarter. No, we talk of NGX 30, but I think of the what we call the Bluetooth company. This is a talk that, yes, you know, every investor that look at and want to look at with an entry in the digital market because of the liquidity in those stocks in that NGX 30. And they perform well for the month of, you know, the month of the first quarter of the year. But what happened is that you mentioned the Gary Gu, mentioned a dangote and Boa leading the world, the gain has started for the quarter. I'm not surprised. The billionaires in Nigeria, you know, they know how to move because they want to maintain their, their routine in the global market reality when they come to for another stock. And we'll see how, you know, Gary Gu taking position in dangote cement, move that stock from as low as a, notary and easy to almost a modern era before pulling back now a threat of profit taking. Also how they also move. Gary Gu move not because of performance, it's because of the personality behind this company. Also Boa, it's not because the performance are standing in the market, it's because of the personality behind that. And also the good is short talk. For example, it's a matter that if share initial, you know, available to the market, it's very small. Right is bad to go up because this stock is not available in the market. And these billionaires are the ones that own this market. And when they move up, their, their routine will also improve. And that's why the source, source talk, that's why investors in Nigeria should also go with the billionaires. I say, you know, invest when you want to invest with caution. Because this billionaire, all about, you know, when they are moving, their stock will move. That means if you want to really make money also, actually by passing your post below, you need to also identify with these billionaires and know how to take their stocks in your post below. Either as a defensive stock with your post below also to play to work, monitoring them because they are very, very, you know, sneaky in nature so that you won't take your finger upon. Because most times if you have the billionaires, they are going to have a profit. For me, it's a good thing for the market that we are seeing this personality behind our head. And that is also imparted market positively. All right. Let's still talk about banking, for instance. The NJX Banking and the NJX Insurance Index appreciated by 14.76 percent and 26.2 percent year to date, respectively. But in the wake of the CBN recapitalization and the bank's agenda, all of this likely to affect, you know, their stock value. For the banking sector anywhere in the world, you know, don't forget that the bank's and NJX opening economy, even if we have nothing to expect in it, it's going to be a boost for investors to understand how to develop their knowledge. I believe that when the performance was sought in the first quarter, yes, we might see some missed performance in the amount of, you know, people in second quarter of the year. But don't forget that all eyes on the advance to provide the CBN with the recapitalization agenda for their plan to recapitalize that will open investors' eyes on how to invest in banking stock. But for insurance, insurance is enjoying no positive increase in their premium that was done in late 2020. That was December 2022. That impacted positively on Q1, Q2, Q3 of the insurance company in 2023 and that are reflected on their numbers. Which I know is going to continue also in 2024. That is why a good investor should do what we call sectoralization and also the plans of their portfolio. You see funds leaving the market now for through a future market. As more information is on the way to the market, I believe that there will also be more than coming back to equity market because as we speak now, Naira has been in the kind of where it is appreciated. Even we are thinking that Naira will be appreciated because of, you know, from almost as from 1,000 to 1,900 to 1,000 to 1,000. But naturally, for the insurance investor, our market is still cheap along that value. I believe that when they start coming to our market, the 20% of Naira, even though force are leaving the market now, when we start this for investors coming back to Nigeria because all eyes on what, how stable would CBN know intervention in the foreign market, especially in the market to be consistent. If they know that here it's consistent and stable, it's a plan that they are coming to Nigeria for a year or two years to stay. That will help us follow the market to go up. And also they want to see more general reform of this government. We have seen how something will be removed. We have seen also now in the power, the tariff. Now, how is Naira going to play on the economy because all we need to do is let the economy be on the part of recovery. And I think that our markets will be a good destination for foreign investors. Right. Let's stay with the banks now because most people are really very interested in seeing how it plays out with this recapitalization and of course some of them just disclosed their earnings recently. Zenit Bank PLC, one of Nigeria's largest banks published its audited account for the fiscal year 2023, showcasing gross earnings of 2.13 trillion Naira. This represents the growth of 125.4% year on year. And it's the highest gross earnings ever reported in the company's history. UBA and Zenit Bank have joined access core in the 20 trillion Naira Club in terms of total assets. Now, the three financial institutions are now the only ones with the total asset base exceeding 20 trillion Naira, which is about $20 billion as of December 2023. Let's get your comment to model. For me, the banks have really done well. As I said, explanation would not be a problem for major operators of this bank, especially the full gas or the first care fund. They have sold it enough. If you look at banks as they posted about 2.13 trillion, let me say 2 trillion gross earnings for financial year 2023, it's a signal of where they are going. And at the same time, despite that, most of them have really reported by a first gain. But go back and look at this period from almost since two years ago, here it's having hike in Nigeria to checkmate inflation. The banks have been saying from it massively. And I calculated on what on their interest income. And that's going to continue for you. We'll say it earlier that just for the first quarter of 2024, we have seen about this point hike. It's also the bank to benefit from it. And I believe that the 2.7 trillion gross earnings and come back to the final which is the profit after that after taking care of their costs, their cost of operation, their pay government tax. Also, even there's no pediment about bad loan, they are taking care of it. And they are posting above 500 billion as profit. A signal that the 5 million earnings as part of the checkup. But I will tell you this bank about more than 3 million has retained earnings. It's a price for them. And also pay their dividend to their shareholder that's impressive. It's also the price they're supposed to patronize them as they come to the market by way of right or by way of public of right. Then for me it's good for the bank and it's also good for them because they have about 2.8 or 2.9 trillion in their earnings. It's as easy as either you pay dividend or you don't need to work to loan us or to capitalize the work. Your capital that would make it to hit for me. This way I said investor and we know that the full gas are set to meet the 500 of CBM. There's no cost for that. Our banks are headed because they want to drive one trillion dollar economy we are looking at. For me there's no panic from back and stop. Let us project for Q2. We just started this last week as it is. We are looking at an increase of $18.2 trillion or 44.49% from $40.9 trillion open for trading this year. So what we project what we foresee what trends do we see for the second quarter do we see more bullish or bearish trends? There was to see for me a missed trend market property can also be a market but the strength or the position or the state or the Q1 number from this bank and the general market will give insight. For me we don't need to depend more on the first quarter. We are already seeing the performance of most companies in 2023 also a missed number. That missed number will also for the market in 2023 that trend will continue but the interest was that we have seen in our NIRA this video that means most of the listed loss last year and also in this market will improve their performance because the position for their first loss will reduce because of what since the building from from $100 to $900 or $1,000 fine but that will improve their performance in Q2 that means in this video we will see a missed performance for Q1 I will give insight of what to do profit taking will be there but also government policy also coming up also guide investors now we will be able to continue to look forward for this opportunity in terms of government policy also a very big thank you to you Ambrose for your wonderful insight and of course the analysis that you have made on the banks earnings and the Q1 review do appreciate your time as always that's what I mean all right Ambrose is a stock market analyst and researcher and we have been looking at the outlook for 24 second