 Hello and welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 22nd of March and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 25th of March and it's been a rather mixed week for global equity markets. US markets closed a fresh month high in the wake of this week's unexpectedly dovish tilt from the US Federal Reserve when it comes to monetary policy and I think what was more surprising about the Fed's statement and guidance on Wednesday was the fact that in the space of less than three months we've gone from having the prospect of three rate rises in 2019 to none absolutely zero and it's really prompting the question from investors and markets in general I think as to whether or not the next move in Fed policy is likely to be a rate cut as opposed to a rate hike that's how far we've come in the space of three months and I think that's been really reflected in the performance of the S&P 500 and US markets in general that I think an optimism over the US economy because even when you look at the US economy that still appears to be the best of a pretty disappointing bunch still expected to grow in excess of 2% in 2019 and as such when compared to say for example the Chinese economy or the European economy it's still still pretty much outperforming relative to the rest of the world and I think that's really being reflected in some of the data that we've seen outside of the US because if you look outside of the US the picture isn't anywhere near as rosy so say for example we look at the Germany 30 the DAX and that does appear to be looking to test the uptrend line that we've been in since those lows in December and I think some of the pessimism around the European economy hasn't been helped by a very disappointing German manufacturing PMI number flash PMI number for March coming in at 44.7 lowest number since the summer of 2012 and that really does point to a global manufacturing recession if and when we see the PMIs out of China and Japan and the rest of the world essentially at the beginning of next month and I think what it does also underscore is the possibility that we could well see much more aggressive easing by the European Central Bank going forward if you actually look at the German domestic economy it's still looking fairly positive with services PMIs in the mid 50s but manufacturing points to a very grim outlook for the manufacturing sector overall I think the key level for me on the DAX is these key lows around about 11,400 that this low these lows through here and the 50 day moving average so I think the failure to get through the 200 day moving average could precipitate further declines if we break below 11,400 so as we look ahead to the coming week it won't surprise you to know that the main focus will continue to remain on Brexit yes the B word and that would appear to have moved on a little bit it now looks much less likely that the European Union sorry the UK will be leaving the European Union on the 29th of March this coming month at the latest European Council meeting a decision was taken to extend the UK's departure date to the 22nd of May on the condition that MPs are able to pass Theresa May's very unpopular deal withdrawal agreement in the event that that is voted down again and that looks increasingly likely then MPs will have until the 12th of April to come up with alternative solutions so so as we look ahead to the coming week there will be votes in Parliament to extend article 50 from the 29th of March to the 12th of April assuming that Theresa May's deal doesn't actually pass and that would appear to be the likely outcome after the response to the Prime Minister's speech earlier this week in fact I'll be surprised if it actually doesn't lose by more votes than the number of votes it lost on the second reading and as a reminder it was 149 votes so it's highly likely that that vote will that would be the deal will get voted down again and really then it really comes down to MPs to vote on a series of alternative solutions which does has a majority does have a majority because at the moment while we have complete clarity on what MPs don't want we don't as yet have any clear idea of what they will be happy with so we saw a big bit of a sell-off in the cable over the course of the past couple of days what we haven't done as yet seen is a break below the 200-day moving average and I think that really is the key level for me the 50 and the 200-day moving averages at the moment we're finding the upside pretty difficult in any way or an error one the 133 area but we are we do appear to be finding at some level of support between 12980 and 130 the figure so if we can hold above 130 the figure then we could well I see a continuation of the move higher if on the other hand we're unable to sustain levels above 130 then we could see a broader correction back down to these lows here which we saw during the middle of February around about 12780 128 so parliamentary votes are going to be the key the key arbiters I think for the direction of sterling over the course of the next week so political risk we do have a number of economic data items to keep an eye out for but they're all pretty much dated in terms of their relevance UK fourth quarter GDP final number which is chew out on Friday but as I say I mean that's likely to show that the UK economy had a disappointing end to 2018 with half the level of economic activity that we saw in Q3 so that's expected to come in around about 0.2 0.3% business investment is again expected to be the largest drag on that we've also got the final fourth quarter GDP numbers out of the US on the 28th we've got flash CPI from the European Union also on the 29th and that will once again refocus market attention on ECB policy going forward which in the wake of those really disastrous PMIs out of France and Germany on the manufacturing side it's really likely to refocus attention on the risks of to the EU of no deal this is not a zero-sum game here Emmanuel Macron can talk all he likes about the fact that the France is ready for no deal those PMIs numbers give the lie to that statement we've also got German IFO business sentiment a survey in light of those PMI numbers they that that particular number will be very interesting and that is due out business sentiment due out on the 25th and a couple of number key items out over the course of this week apart from full-year earnings we also have the Lyft IPO ride-sharing app Lyft is due to IPO on the 28th of March CMC markets will be covering that IPO we will be pricing that IPO in the afternoon of that day and that will value on the NASDAQ with the valuation coming in around $20 billion 30.77 million shares will be listed between $62 and 68 management are hoping to raise a total of around $2 billion now we could we'll see a decent pop hire we certainly did on the Levi Strauss IPO this week but looking at the numbers and I got to say this could be more a case of mimicking snap the mimicking Facebook so be interested to see how that goes and we've also got an Apple event on the 25th where Apple is expected to unveil a new subscription based video streaming service which is expected to take the fight to Amazon and Netflix I can't help thinking that Apple are playing catch-up in this regard but what we have seen on Apple shares over the course of the past three months is a significant move higher despite the fact they posted that profits warning earlier this year we've broken above the 200-day moving average we're looking to retest the 61.8 retracement level of the entire down move from the peaks that we saw in October to the lows that we saw in December so that's going to be around about $198 $200 a share keep an eye on Apple shares in the wake of that event so that's it for this week as I say catch up on all the details of what's going on in the morning update on the news and analysis section of the website you can click on that otherwise thanks very much for listening Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets