 What's up everybody, Ricky Karuth here and today I want to share with you some real stats, some mind blowing stats that actually, these are the kind of stats that you never even thought would have been possible in the housing market six, eight, 12 months ago, listening to mainstream media and listening to the other outlets talking about crash, crash, crash, but here we are. And this is a day that I've been waiting on. This is a day that I told you was coming a mile away. The real estate market moves extremely slow. Nothing really just boom happens on a dime. Everything is slow developing. And if you've been around as long as I have and you've been through so many different market cycles and you study and research the market as I do, it's really easy to kind of see all this stuff coming a mile away. So I'm going to dive right in here to the bullet points of this report, which is just I'm telling you, it's just like, wow, really? To think that a lot of people thought it was going to be the end of the world and everything. It's just, it's insane. I'm also going to share with you a couple other reports and I want to just dive into all these bullet points and then I'm going to give you my thoughts on this information, what you should be doing with the information to build and increase and grow your business. And then I'm going to ask you to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. So let's dive right in the first report here. This is an article from national mortgage professional, which I'm a huge fan of now, by the way, and it says home prices rises buyers outnumber sellers. Okay. And they wrote this from a Zillow report that just happened. So let's just talk about the key points here. I'm not going to bore you and give you a lot of fluff and a lot of filler talk here. Let's just talk about the real meat of these reports, right? The monthly home value, that's prices. The value of homes grew 1.4%. That's month over month. Okay, that's the highest since prices started going down last June. Okay. So that was the biggest month since everything started turning and the market shifted. Okay, check this out. Sales rose nearly 10% from April to May. So we had a 10% increase in the number of transactions month over month from April to May. Okay. Inventory reached a new low for May. Now, we can just put a period right there. Like, this is historic. We have new, we have inventory reach all time low for May for as far back as they've been researching this and keeping up with the data. This is a record low for May, lower than 22, 21, 2019, 18, all that. This is as low as it's ever been, but they do continue the sentence and the rest of the sentence is very interesting. And it says inventory reached a record low for May as mortgage rates deterred sellers, not buyers. You would think mortgage rates would deter buyers, but right here it says mortgage rates are deterring sellers and that makes sense. Most people are sitting on less than 6%. Why would you sell and go into a higher mortgage rate? But it's just crazy to think. I mean, we never would have thought like I never would have saw coming that mortgage rates would actually deter sellers, but here we are. And you know what I find interesting about mortgage rates? I'm going to share with you more about interest rates in just a second. But what I find interesting is now that we're in this market where people are buying at a 7% interest rate and the longer it stays in the high 6s and the 7s. The more people that own at these higher interest rates, that's going to create the opposite effect later as the people who are sitting on 7% interest rates want to upgrade their house. Not only will they upgrade to a house and be happy to do so because they're going to buy into a cheaper interest rate later in the years coming. So this is going to eventually long term have the opposite effect, which I find very, very interesting. Now, this is the big one right here. This is the one that I've been talking about for several months now. Okay. The typical home value is $346,856. All right. And here's the punchline. Up 0.9% over last May. So we're up year over year from last May to this May, 0.9%. Okay. So I've been talking about the fact that we're going to go positive year over year in July. However, that was about 30 to 40 days ago. And I saw that we were going to be headed there. But then I started to say, you know what? We may go positive year over year sooner. Redfin data still has us negative 2% year over year. So, but it's getting close to moving into the positive range. So all the different entities are going to hit at different times because they collect data from different places. This is the first of all of them. Zillow is the first of all that's saying positive year over year prices. Now, I'm sure buyers don't like to hear that because, oh man, prices are going up. Well, prices have been going up for four months now. And rates are about the same as they were in the high sixes. So you guys aren't getting any relief there, but you will soon. Okay. And we're going to go over that in just a second. Let's dive into a little bit more of this data because it's very interesting. This is an interest in home values grew 1%. Oh, and by the way, 3.9% from last May, but 3.4% from the recent low in January. So we're up 3.4% from the bottom, according to Zillow, 0.9% from last May. Okay. So we're up sales 10% month over month. We're up price wise year over year. And we're up from the bottom, which was in January. Now, a typical U.S. home grew 1.4% in price from April to May. Okay. Strongest monthly appreciation since June 2022. Okay. Adding that it's a little cooler than the previous two springs. So what they're saying is that the market is a little colder right this second this spring than it was in the previous two springs. Okay. But the rest of the sentence is interesting. It says, but hotter than in 2018 and 19. So it's not as hot as it was in 21 and 20 and 21, I mean, 20 was the pandemic. So it wasn't as hot as it was in 21 and 22. But the market right now this spring is hotter than it was pre-pandemic. 19 and 18. Okay. That is very interesting. And let's dive a little deeper here. A new loan on a home price of the typical value in the U.S. Okay. Would make mortgage payments just shy of $1,800. Okay. 22% higher than last year and double that of May and 19. I want to dive into a little bit of this before I end the video and kind of share with you my thoughts on this affordability thing. Okay. But here's some very interesting data. The housing affordability is still the key driver of demand. Okay. The largest monthly home value gains are in the Midwest, which includes six of the seven metros with the biggest gains in May. Okay. What were they? Columbus, Ohio led the way with 2.2 monthly gain followed closely by Cincinnati, Detroit, Richmond, Virginia, and Milwaukee. Okay. These have the largest gains month over month. But get this. Price growth also spring back in the West Coast. Tech hubs after prices fell significantly there late 2022. Home values rose faster than the national average for the second straight month in San Jose 1.9%, Seattle 1.7%, and San Francisco 1.4%. So, these cities in California, everybody was leaving and going to Florida, New York, and Texas and those markets got crushed. Well, guess what? They're bouncing back quicker than the national average right now. It just goes to show you that closings continue to happen every single day. Never going to stop. You'll have ups and downs, of course. You'll have fluctuations, but this business is never going to stop. And of course, we're down new listings 23% year over year. People just aren't listing their homes. Okay. So, when it comes to mortgage rates, and I talked about the fact that, you know, it's not favorable necessarily for buyers who have been priced out of the market for prices to go up right now. However, that's the situation that we are in. MBA, Mortgage Bankers Association, expects loan value, loan rates to average 5.6. So, that's about a point and a half lower than where we are right now. Okay. They're expecting that to be the average by the end of 2023. So, a point and a half lower right now is about $450 off. So, you go from $1800 down to $1350, something like that. And NAR, National Association of Realtors, expects rates to average 5.6 in 2024. Okay. And this is just a side note in this article. Okay. NAR says in 2024, sales to rise 15.4%. They think home sales will dip 9.3% this year, which they're down lower than that right this second. We'll see how they bounce back. I believe they're going to bounce back as well. But I don't—we'll see how that plays out. And then they'll make that up next year by increasing 15.4%. So, they think it's going to decrease 9.3% this year and increase 15.4% next year. That's transactions. But get this. Existing home prices will leap 28% in 2024. Okay. NAR thinks that home prices—existing home prices—are going to jump up 28% next year. Wow! After falling 1.8% this year, okay? We're already positive on the year right this second. So, prices would have to fall from here to get negative this year. I don't think that prediction is going to come true. We'll see. And 28% next year, that's a heck of a prediction, right? But let's jump over here and look here. This is the Redfin data. This is prices. And you can see we're still 2% lower than we were last year. But you see where this black line is, 2022. We're about to bust right through that. There ain't no doubt we're about to bust right through that. Now, this is mortgage payments—monthly mortgage payments. Going back to 89. You can see in 89, there was about 600, 700 bucks, right? And then now we're way up here and you think, oh my God! But if you adjust that to inflation, look at what we have here, okay? And this is what it was, around 700, 600, 700 bucks in 89. And now we're at, you know, 16, 1700 in 89 if you adjust it for inflation. And so, if you look right here where we are around $1,800, that's what this represents as well. And you drop it $400 into this range right here, 1500. Heck, we're actually going to be lower than we were in 89. We're going to be lower than we were in a lot of these places in the 90s. And we're really going to be right in line with where it used to be. The problem is, ladies and gentlemen, we got really spoiled with the affordability right here. All this is doing is that we're getting back to normal, you know, where we were in the 90s and the early 2000s. And this is percentage of mortgage—percentage of household income as a mortgage payment. And you can see, same thing. We were just spoiled right here for the last decade. And now we're just getting back to normal, ladies and gentlemen. And as rates come down, we're going to see that affordability get a little better. But prices are also going to go up. So it's not going to get back like it was anytime soon. I hate to tell you that, but that's just the facts. And right here, this is just to show you how seasonal transactions are. I mean, every year it starts out going down, down, down. It hits a point. And then, boom, it comes up. And then it starts falling off in the fall every single year. But look at—I'm going to bring 2020 up. Look at the peaks and valleys of each year and how similar. Look at that right there. And then, boom, boom, like—and look at the red and orange line. You can barely see them. They're so similar. It's crazy when you look at this. Look at this peak. Look at that peak. Look at that how—this is number of transactions in the country. It's crazy how really, really seasonal this business really is. What do I think you need to do with this information? I think you need to dive into your local markets, MLS. You need to start creating your own data around number of sales this year, last year, prices, all that stuff. You need to Google for local data. You need to go to your board of realtors. You need to go wherever you can find local data. The University of Alabama does great data for us here in my county. I use my MLS. I use Redfin. I use all these different places. And I just—I collect data and then I share this information with my clients on my weekly email. Not only that, but I'm way more sharper when I'm talking to clients about making offers and when we're in the market doing things, looking at properties, listing properties. I'm just much sharper. I have my finger on the pulse of the market. And that's what you need to do. A lot of people definitely do not realize that prices are up and that this is a really increasing market. And it's the reason why I'm buying so many houses. I didn't walk through today. We're closing on tomorrow. I got two more new constructions after that. We just closed on an older home and about to put another one on a contract because I'm going to be getting 8% return cash on cash in a couple years. We'll be able to increase rent to where it's more like 15%, 16%. Then we're going to refinance at a point and a half lower. Those properties have already increased. They've already raised the prices in those neighborhoods and they're selling like hotcakes. There's not enough supply, ladies and gentlemen. That's the problem here when it comes to prices. That's why we're going to see prices continue to increase. So go with this. Go into your localities, right? Really become a market expert on your local markets. You want to be the one that everybody thinks, wow, they're on top of the market. Study your hot sheets. New listings, pennies, closings, expires every day. 15 minutes. Look at your MLS hot sheet and all that good stuff. So anyway, I was excited about this. Wanted to share it with you. Hope this gives you some inspiration and positivity in your business. Makes you excited about being in the business. Gives you a long-term outlook that it doesn't matter how bad it gets. Closings are going to continue to happen and it's your job to get out there and help people buy and sell. And as I said, I was going to tell you to subscribe, hit the bell if you haven't already, and I'll see you on the next video. Let's go.