 Sunday might have been the most fun day we've had watching football so far this year the bills and Vikings game was off The hook the late games were all weirdly kind of funny I mean like Rams Cardinals whatever but like you know the Packers Cowboys was cool I had a good time watching football a profitable week from a DFS perspective. We're gonna break things down Recap what went down what it all means going forward and get you set for week number 11 over on Fandall This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the Fandall podcast network in number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Brandon Gadilla, he is the senior managing editor of number fire comm Brandon week 10 was a lot of fun How you doing today? Yeah, good. I Had a great time watching that Bill's Vikings game as I'm sure everyone did Once the Justin Jefferson catch happened I brought brought in a laptop to show my wife because even she like I mean she appreciates the athleticism She's yeah, big fan of the OBJ catch, but even she realized that that was basically OBJ in traffic Yeah OBJ if there was a dude like Like on him. Yeah, so like that was that was cool, but then like red zone double boxed in like The rams and Cardinals game with that I'm like they had the Broncos Titans game on a 1.2 And I was like I didn't have red zone as well recently and I'm like this is why I hated this before and was opposed to this concept Sorry validation. I just wanted to watch those Vikings in peace. You got then you can flip over to your local Was it Fox affiliate? But come on man, that's that's a bit absurd. I just I thought it was funny the quality of that well There are some mistakes, I guess in the the bill's Vikings game But like the quality of entertainment of that game and like double boxing in You know Tennessee and Denver is like Coming from some like masterpiece level Movie to like a new brain flick like yeah I had the Vikings money I had the Vikings money line I'd bet it on Monday when the Allen news first broke at plus 270. You know, it's like, oh, yeah, Josh Allen's I think he's probably gonna sit so we would talked about it Monday like he was kind of shaking his hand and stuff like that I think you'll probably sit and you get to Sunday morning. It's like, oh, I've made a mistake and then thought that for the next three hours until Josh Allen decides to fumble and It was it was fun to see Josh Allen still have the highs But also get some of chaos Josh Allen back because I missed chaos Josh Allen where he like makes mistakes Like he's still a tremendous football player and really fun to watch But I want the down two at times because it's fun, you know, I want chaos Josh Allen We got full chaos Josh Allen. We got Jonathan Taylor going bananas once again as well So we had the Cooper Cup injury. That's a bummer. But like having Jonathan Taylor being Jonathan Taylor again having Justin Jefferson being Best player on the planet right now like having all that combined in one day was a delight Yeah, and I mean this is what there's some vindication here I guess because since what when did when did Jonathan Taylor first get banged up like week three week? Yeah, yeah, I was like, you know what I'm waiting to the Sally was coming down I was like, I'm just gonna wait and wait and then I just kept waiting and then I ended up playing Taylor and I Didn't play a ton of lineups like I was a bit more concentrated, but I played Taylor in every single one of them and so that that was a It was worth the wait, let's say Yeah, I had him in 59% Which was second behind Pollard at 66% and I was like I got to the end of building lineups and I was like, oh, this could be really bad Offer because it's too much JT too much. I don't it's too much because like I was I was tweeting about JT on Sunday morning So like what I'll do is like if I feel like I didn't talk enough about a guy during our show at Thursday I'll circle back Sunday and kind of tweet about and I was like, you know There are downsides here, but I think that impacts is 50th percentile outcome more so than is 90th percentile and that that allowed me to talk myself into him from a tournament perspective because of the ceiling But I don't think I've properly accounted for the downsides and building lineups and I got real nervous And I was like should I like swap off? I'm glad I didn't but like I got real uncomfortable you real fast once I saw I'd 59% Yeah, so I always update the the floor ceiling projections on number fire Sunday mornings and Taylor just became the best Sort of floor ceiling boomer bust guy at running back Which is not the it's not the only way to to account for Players range of outcomes that he don't want to base it just solely off of like if this guy doesn't have a huge game He might not be great, but I mean it was worth the risk for me 95 we're gonna talk about him. He's our headliner this week. I don't know how he how he couldn't be that we get Jonathan Taylor back Finally, yeah, it was it was fun to see him back and be in full force once again and You know led to a pretty good week So we'll talk about him We'll talk about the other stuff to break down the slate in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy Podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. We've got NBA every weekday with Tom Vecchio PGA one last one before the holiday Layoff coming up tomorrow. We've got USC for the big events as well I'll send a good job breaking down USC 281 or whatever it was one of his top value plays had a win in the first couple rounds I was good for me. I didn't cash because I'm moron, but Boston did well So listen to him more often than I I should listen to him more often there But also we'll have a lot of good stuff here twice weekly NFL shows all throughout the holidays So make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Now is the perfect time to download fan dual America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win trap features like same-game parlays Player mr. 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So let's talk more about JT as our headliner here from week number 10 93% snap rate for Jonathan Taylor in week number 10 22 carries two targets 163 yards of scrimmage and a touchdown as well. He had two out of six red zone chances in What should be a bad offense overall? But they also did have some life here with Matt Ryan as opposed to Sam Ellinger Passing volume funneled through Michael Pittman and Paris Campbell both those guys had nine targets Pittman did have a downfield target number two for him from Matt Ryan this year. So Doubling up his number there. So let's talk about JT, but then also this this overall offense Are you changing your view on the past catcher with Ryan here? What's your view of JT? So one of the things that I pulled up for the philosophical change section was just how this team looks so it just makes more sense to talk about it here because it's Such a big transition to go Not only to a new coach, but just fresh play caller Everything new new old quarterback But yeah, the Colts under Jeff Saturday, not as bad as I hoped or sort of anticipated They were still they've been playing pretty fast in terms of my adjusted pace numbers They were still top five for the week in adjusted pace So long as you're not terribly slow like it's it's basically fine And their pass rate over expectation did go from minus 1.3 percent for this season to a minus 6.4 percent That would rank 27th in the NFL in the full season I'm not gonna sit here and say that there'll be a pass heavy team, but they weren't They weren't the Bears, which is sort of what my fear was not that it would have really mattered because There's muted interest in the past catchers to begin with but you also want efficient passing To help a running back, you know 25 carries with no juice on them because you're never in the red zone only does so much But yeah, it was sort of a better than expected output for this this offense overall And that is gonna play into why I like Taylor even more But you know, we have not had guys play in 90 plus percent of the snaps very often this season it That like entire trend is just gone and if we can get Jonathan Taylor playing 90 plus percent of the snaps That is it that that puts him back in the difference difference maker like tier that there's it's basically him and sequan maybe That even would qualify in terms of like true Absolute FOMO guys like week in week out. So I think this was great for Taylor This offense showed more life than I anticipated. I still don't think I'll build around Michael Pittman and Paris Campbell personally, but I Saw enough from Taylor I don't know how you couldn't but it was phenomenal. He was efficient better than expected So Eric's way up on Taylor. So name that salary they get the Eagles next week at home So it's a bad. It's a very good defense, but they're they're not great against the rush Jordan Davis still kind of banged up too. So Name that salary it's a it's a tough situation as their big underdogs, but I think that does help them quite a bit Do we have a spread yet or no because? Very nap when dogs at home okay, um Yeah, I didn't know if there would be one because of he was playing on Monday night Philly on a short week then Eight and a half point home underdog that amount of Snaps, what was his route rate here? Oh goodness 76% That's absurd just the two targets, but while 22 routes 95 95 who I was at 85 because of the offense That's wrong But I don't think 95 is totally off base. He's 87. I mean Derek Henry was 94 this week Yeah, but I thought it'll knock the offense. Yeah, sure. I Think if we if we split the difference between the two of us I think that's probably the better way to do it is 9,000 so 87 probably a little lower appropriate, right? Yeah Yeah, I probably pulled a gym gala look a lot over my skis sometimes I don't blame you. He was fun. Like he got that long touchdown. I'm like screaming I mean, I mean a lot on Sunday because we had a lot of delve to and he had that long touchdown screaming at JT Screaming at Justin Jefferson making one-handed catches like a psycho. So like there's a lot of screaming and he was part of it I don't know I don't know if I can do this very well on the fly because it's such a big spreadsheet But I wonder how many games this season we've had a running back run at least 75% of the routes because I can't imagine It's a huge list. Oh, no, I I wouldn't think so at all That I think the route right there and again 22 routes. It's not like it was This is not the the most pass heavy or efficient passing offense that we wouldn't that we get but so you could say even that the The role was undersold This week because you only have the two targets, but he had to go for more. So you could say that so I have Five games this season including JT this week where a running back has had at least a 75% route rate say Kwan Say Kwan did it once Leonard for that did it once Darrell Henderson and David Montgomery did it once, but I'm sure Montgomery Darrell Henderson I'm sure Montgomery did it on 13 drawbacks and drawbacks Yeah, so I think that being high on JT is fair still some reservations about the offense, but Not gonna be too much reservations about sequins offense Not as many is like with the Colts, but like you're either Daniel Jones or Matt Ryan I'm asking seriously cuz I don't know like the answer. I Think it's close enough where yeah, look we try not to see your salary We know say Kwan's 97 this week because he's leading Now they're playing the Lions. It's not the same, but I think a thousand dollar difference is We're discussing one, but yeah, yeah, that's just cuz I love say Kwan. I'm not anything against JT Let's dig into the injuries here and start things off with Cooper cup He got rolled up on and heard his ankle He didn't return in Shaw McVeigh said it didn't look or sound good, which is concerning the sound parts Cup played into the fourth quarter and he played two-thirds of the snaps for the full game Main guy benefited was Ben Scoronic 98% snap rates part wide receiver part tight end part fullback all awesome 96% snap rate in the first half for Scoronic after a cup left the ran through 15 times Target lead is there for for Tyler Higbee three for Jan van and Jefferson and Kyron Williams Jan Vefersen is better Ben Scoronic at two Higbee van and Scoronic will likely see target bumps But this offense also sucks and I don't want any piece of it Can you talk me out of just crossing off this offense at Cup misses time? Yeah, so it's it's not been great and it's gonna get worse without cup on the field This is one of those spots where I think maybe we get a little bit overzealous and say well Higbee's gonna see a 35% target share But that might I mean Higbee himself has had some efficiency concerns Vans fun for sure if I'm not mistaken caught a late touchdown Then you ran in the tunnel. Yeah, I have some best ball some best ball time. It seems a van. I was like, I guess I'll take it Yeah, that was a I was still coming down from the Vikings game side I saw it happen, but I didn't really process it. I need to it's fine So, yeah, I mean, I guess the real question is how low would their salaries need to be for you to want to buy Into like the volume assuming Stafford's back because I don't think Scoronic has any path outside Like I Like I just can't see I can't envision him So my checklist is 85 yards or two touchdowns. I don't know if this offense will score two touchdowns And I don't think you can get to 85 yards Alan Robinson probably can't get to 85 yards right now And probably can't get to 85 like I don't think anyone can get to 85 unless they have like a 30 40 percent Target share in his offense. So So that's what I'm saying is I think you're gonna make a low enough so like I think you give me the case like Higbee sees like a 30 to 35 percent target share We've already we've already been playing Higbee earlier in the season have moved away from that So like is he back like how low does that sell? I have to be I guess 55 He won't be that but that's what I have to be 62. I Think this offense sucks like Ironic which I'm gonna have to learn how to spell that one Scouron neck. I've been 0 for 10 every time. I'm trying to type it out 53 Alan Robinson not 7000 like he was a couple weeks ago, but 6600. I think that's a bit bit tall then 56 yeah Like if I have a like because we don't know what the slate looks like yet if I have What I feel like is the nuts lineup, but like 5500 for receiver I Could consider just Scouron I mean Scouron got seven targets caught two of them. You expect that to be a bit better. I don't I don't though Not this offense. Yeah, like I don't know. I just I don't think they can they can burn me like We talked about FOMO. Can they burn me for not using them? I don't think so Then maybe just cuz he's maybe talented enough, but I don't I mean no, I don't think so I think they're across off. I'm not I'm not gonna like fight you on this one. Yeah Yeah, yeah, playing a little bit of devil's advocate for the salaries being what they are. Yeah I mean like the salaries are Robinson's is too high Yeah, it's 66. I think Higby's is too high Scouronic and Van I get more but like I still can they play the they play the Saints next week That's not gonna be a Saints money Leonard Fournette left Sunday with a hip injury and didn't return led to a 65% snap break for Rashad white But white was also around half the snaps in the first half to before Fournette got banged up. Why finish with 22 carries no targets for 105 yards He did run the most routes among backs in the team. He had 11 five for Lenny three for quiche on Vaughn So Lenny is banged up, but he's got a buy to get healthy if Lenny misses time How would he view Rashad whites in DFS? Basically like a four net plus yes Like current like entering week 9 10 for net plus. Yeah. Yeah where it's it's not gonna be flawless This team does want to throw primarily although their pass rate over expectation Although it seemed like they were just slinging it late in the game. They were actually below expectation in terms of pass rate, but Yeah, 55% first half snap rate and as much as this pains me to say I don't think that they have seen enough from Qichon Vaughn to like Put him out there. So I think it'd be I think it'd be pretty much arrows up for white Somewhere around like the 75 to 80 percent snap rate. Maybe a little bit hollow But probably kind of juicier than what for next been getting I think I agree that as well like the potential for it to be a bit hollow, but He's look good They ran a bit more on Sunday I think because they were actually moving the ball for once in the ground like they're a hideous rushing offense Yeah, but like they were better on Sunday than they had been so I would say probably 75% snap rate if there's no Lenny is Fair because we did see Qichon Vaughn mix in when they were trying to throw in that game So he might take away some routes, but like I said White did lead in routes among the backs. So there's at least something there Yeah, I mean as someone who liked Qichon Vaughn a lot coming out of college If they if they wanted to use him that have used him by now, correct, I'd agree that so I Would be pretty okay with white. I think this offense is better than perception right now They're still pretty efficient early downs. They're late down offense was really good against Seahawks If I recall correctly for the first time like all year, so I think that was encouraging for them and White might have been part of why it was encouraging to which helps as well Khalil Herbert sustained a hip injury was rolled out for the Bears David Montgomery played a 66% snap rates No other running back played a snap in this game, but they did have They had mixed interest in Ebbner earlier on this year Montgomery had kept his snap rate up even when Herbert was healthy and now Justin feels his playing better So if Herbert misses time, how would you view Montgomery in this offense going forward? They get the Falcons next week, which definitely factors in because yeah, they've made the other form and look like Barry Sanders basically pretty much So yeah, Montgomery's another guy. We've been like I Won't say that we've been considering Montgomery since Herbert really popped up but Early in the season be like Montgomery. You're right. My coffee lid is very dirty and it distracted me So I was trying to clean it my I thought you like spilled something all over yourself or like having another wire issue Where you're gonna go mute for like no, it's it's really dirty. I need to clean it I'm gonna do that later Should I take this off or you should definitely just do that like, you know Clean your dishes while I'm given my analysis Should I keep the lid on even though? I know it's dirty or should I take it off to drink my coffee going for the rest of the show? If you can't manage drinking from a lid this I don't have a travel mug I think we got bigger issues. I think you can I think it's mug is really old too by the way look at this like People are listening to this There's some people some people are watching but yeah, just gonna if I dribble on myself, don't judge me so We have like been a pro David Montgomery podcast whenever the role's been there and I think the role should be there again You know one of the five guys to play it or to run 75% of the routes in a game this year But yeah this week 61% I don't expect much volume there just because this is the most run-heavy offense in football a Little bit more efficient, but I honestly think that Justin Fields is taking maybe too much of the rushing Okay, I think that the the red zone work is a little bit Like that it feels a sport what a hundred times in the past three games like what's it's 97 But I don't want to pick but yeah So like I think it's not it's definitely not flawless. I'm trying to think of a good comp It has shades of like a Raven's offense. Yeah, so That's not ideal It's like it's like if David Montgomery were two of the Ravens backs So instead of getting two guys with 30% of snaps. He's getting like 65 or so rookie your JK Dobbins honestly in both the good and bad sense. Yeah But Montgomery Has had max of 25 adjust opportunity so far this year that was in week one Since then he said his max is 21 Hasn't had the best yardage upside. I still think that though because Fields has been playing better Because the matchup is pretty good. I Think there's enough there wide put Montgomery salary like 75 for next week. I know I know it's pretty high But I I think I think that'd be fair given the potential role He'd have in the improvements of this offense. All right, we'll write this one down I was gonna say like 69, but he's 63. What? Oh My goodness so I Was thinking like the I Use this name a lot because it's just sort of one of those guys like there's a path upside But a lot of path to downside like a classic Damian Harris where I'm if he's if he's above 7000 I'm probably not getting there I Think the JK Dobbins is probably about fair. Yeah, I think in this matchup if there's no Herbert He's gonna be an optimizer's love next week, so But I think he'd be mine too. Usually when we say optimizer love, it's a low ceiling guy He might be that But I also don't know for sure that he is given how good this this rushing offense can be Yeah, I mean Justin Fields is good at running the ball, but how good they have that's true. He's playing to expectation on his carries Average success rate. I don't know how much he's bringing to the table Like himself. That's fair. I Still I think he's a borderline right down at 62. You said 69, right? I said about yeah I think we average where it's 72 between the US. That's still a thousand. Yeah, that's pretty good Okay, juju Smith's juicer less Sunday's game with a concussion Justin Watson wound up being second in snats behind Marquez Valdez scantling just one target for him though Kaderious Tony had five targets on 15 routes plus two rush attempts for 33 yards No, Nicole Harbin here. That's an important note and also Obviously juju left early so some big caveat supply But how many ETNs for you on Tony given that both juju and Harbin could play next week and again ETN is a Measure of your level of excitement on a player from one to ten with ten ETNs being Travis ETN like two weeks ago One ETN being Darryl Henderson's playing staffs, but I'd rather get by a bus than you So You're you're way better at practice reports and following like the news But Hardman didn't practice at all correct this past week Do you do you think that he's like close to returning because I think that would be the most impactful He didn't seem to have a shot to play this week because he's ruled out Friday and that to me says Decent chance he sits again. Um, so I think there's decent decent shot He said so I think that he would uh, Tony would benefit a lot from those rushes. He got the two rushes Some quirky red zone opportunities I think the ceiling is still going to be muted for Tony as he gets acclimated to this offense even with um juju leaving The role itself was still fairly uh fairly capped with the 23% Snap rate 19% route rate. Oh wait, that's that's not correct. That's his average Uh, so the 45% okay 43 of the routes I think he's fine. Yeah, is it like a Like an isaam mckenzie plus occurred a samuel plus plus because the offense is way better Maybe I think that he has more potential to get like downfield work than samuel. So maybe like uh, I said I said double plus for him Okay, double plus. Okay. Um Yeah, I don't know. I I think that like I'd want to keep enthusiasm and check just because like they do want to rotate guys This did happen without juju. So and juju should be back. I would guess for sunday So I want to keep it in check. But like I would you know, I've got a decent level Like if if he were back in the main slate And they kept the salary at $5,500 I'd probably be about 25 ish percent Like I think I'd be that's around where I'd be You asked me about the etm level I'd probably say six and a half because this is one of those spots where it could morph into something Exactly better There is potential there whereas like in a in a worse offense. We wouldn't care Like that's how we talk about the chiefs backfield like it's an awful situation But it's a great team. So it's worth monitoring regardless. Well, we'll talk about them later on too. Um, but Six snap ETNs I think is where I'm at with Tony as well Jerry Judy went down with a non-contact injury as well that for the game I think it was non-contact might not have been but Nathaniel Hackett said after the game They were hoping they dodged a bullet. So it sounds like it's not in Achilles, which is good The main beneficiary of the injury was Kendall Hinton who played on 97 of the Broncos snaps Paid the way for Coral inside to get a 28 target share, which is 11 targets 66 yards though, which is disappointing Melvin Gordon second on the team with six targets, but also no Um, can you go back to this offense at all next week under the assumption that Judy is out? I mean the only the only two Guys we can consider here Coral and Sutton Greg Dulcich. Correct. Um, Dulcich had At least one downfield target that I saw you see had two total downfield targets Which for me are at least 10 yards downfield Sutton had six Um with an 11.6 yard eight rush went deep 13 times, which is more more deep throws than that points Yeah, I mean they've they've maxed out at 23 points in the game Entering this week 13 teams had averaged at least 23 points per game seems good. Um They do get the Raiders next week and the Raiders defense is bad But is this one of those spots where like we're continuing to buy in To Like a bad investment But if a team can't if I can't feel confident like we talked about their reply team total being like 17 points this week Yeah You thought it was a little bit low not like oh, they should be at 27 or anything crazy I was like, no my mom like my numbers have that about right Yep, is it just the name value that would be blinding us into like thinking that we should be going here? Well, I think it's because they actually are getting good usage um I looked at salaries for next week and it hurt um sudden the 7000 That's high that's high like if he had stayed 62, I'd be like cool. I can do that Uh, you know this went down to 55 though. I can do dulcet at 55. That's fine Yeah, I mean his workload for a tight end is really good I'd rather do dulcet at 55 than higbie at 62 despite the fact that higbie will probably get like five more targets Yeah We won't have kelsey. We will have andrews if he's if he's back. He should be I think based on And They're facing carolina. So I think we're gonna want andrews So we'll definitely want If if we're not playing andrews, we'll want some guys with some some juice. Yeah dulcet has that Yeah, Goddard's on the same next week too, which is good because he has juice um dulcet has juice. So um Sutton salary is pretty high, but I think you're right in saying that we should probably just like Make sure we are analyzing what we've seen this year and not the name value of courtland sudden denver broncos rossill wilson It's it's a tough thing to do, but I think it's very necessary to like Really try to ground yourself and what the data says with this team because the sample is pretty large by now It's large and it's bad. Uh for sure bad combo Zach earth's hurt his leg and was ruled out in the first half for the cardinals He was in a knee brace after the game. He's expected to miss multiple weeks Deandre hopkins ron delmore basically got every target from colt mccoy and did trace mix warley throw one at all or no I can't remember but mix warley threw a one and he got in there though Go pen state. There you go. Uh Hopkins 40 target share, which is 14 targets more had a 37 share which is 13 ron del also had a couple downfield looks which is fun and new trade mc bride played 91 of the snaps uh ran 29 routes, but he earned just one target mc bride might eventually become relevant, but How much will earth's his absence impact your view of ron delmore who had another really fun game on sunday? Yeah, I think he'll uh, he'll benefit a lot from from not having earth's because ron del did get like the downfield work Which was very very fun But he's still going to see a lot of the behind the line of scrimmage stuff more intermediate work. Um I think I'd have to uh Go from look, I love ron delmore and I really want him to succeed just on a like a personal like level, um Because his profile is really fun. His usage has made me not get there. He's also fun like aesthetically like he's shifty He's fun. He's fast So like I've been a bit low on him even though the salary's been low. I think I'd probably This is where there's one of the spots we've been off by like thousands For some guys I think I could be off by like a good bit here not in it not a Primer is they are facing Oh, they're on monday night So hypothetically, okay, they're facing san franc. Well, hypothetically already put him like 63 I thought 65. Okay, because it's like a really good target share which means that He has a good meeting expectation But it's not at the expense of true ceiling And that's always my issue is if it's a median expectation at the expense of true ceiling But he at least has a path to a really good game based on this usage so I think that's enough to be 65 if you run the main slate And I feel pretty good about that Would it How would kyler starting impact your view of that? Um, I'm asking because I don't know the direction Let's just say that I'd be fine if col McCoy started to Yeah, my numbers are showing value on arizona plus seven and a half next week I don't know if kyler will play but I kind of might bet it regardless Like col McCoy played he had the same np per drop back as kyler last year This is better this year than kyler's laws. I'm not saying he's better. I'm not saying that I'm saying the offense They run for whatever reason is more efficient So take what you're doing with McCoy and apply it to kyler and we can talk cliff Let's chat Gerald Everett suffered a groin injury in the second quarter for the chargers. They were already missing mike williams and keenon allen Josh palmer ran every route deandre carter ran a 98% route rates Michael bandy was running sprints had in my single game lineup shout out to michael bandy 85% route rates one target on the 34 routes. Good job Trey mckinney 70% route rate in six targets on the parm is on ir which is why mckinney pop ducks I don't think they want to play tree mckinney um But where are you at with the chargers pass catchers with everett now banged up as well Yeah, so I I'm kind of glad that they're on sunday night again Not not necessarily from a viewing standpoint because they're awful to watch The and it's one of those frustrations They're kind of what they think we're enjoyable to watch if if they had a bad quarterback because you wouldn't have any expectations or any hope They wouldn't give you like these like flashes like oh, this guy's really good. You're like, no, we're not going to use him Yeah, that's the tough part because I was going to liken them to the cardinals not for the same reasons But just a team that should be a lot more fun than they are. Yes, um, it's they're actually a very good comparison I'm not gonna lie. It's a very good comparison So i'm i'm glad that we don't have to deal with them on them on the main slate. Um I would go I would go to palmer. I would play carter. I wouldn't really trust it beyond that Yeah, I just want mike williams and keenan allen back so that we can like feel good about Justin herbert again And mike williams said that he has a shot to play next week Looked like he went through a legit warm-up before the game on sunday so he might be back which would be good, but It's brutal at least that would mean then For the week 12 main slate We should get him Who did they play out of curiosity? Do you know arizona? Oh, gosh, you can't script you can't script that I hate that. I hate it. Uh, okay Let's stick on the sunday night game and switch over to rule change and talk about some Uh guys whose role changed in week 10 and this one I didn't expect to be on here Elijah mitchell returned for the 49ers and played enough to be annoying for christian mccaffery snapper is 36 for mitchell 64 for mccaffery Mitchell had 18 carries and two targets 14 carries and six targets from mccaffery mitchell also had eight out of 17 red zone chances whereas mccaffery had five so I had thought that we'd be getting the full mccaffery in san francisco This seems like a pretty pretty obvious no resounding no to that so Temperature check on mccaffery after seeing this game last night Yeah, it's down. Um And in mitchell. I was looking up the play by play to make sure that I had this right, but like Mitchell was out there when they were closing the game. Yeah That's he also looked good, which is annoying Well, we like Elijah mitchell. We do but it justifies keeping mccaffery out the field And we don't want more split backfields. We like Elijah mitchell I'd like him to be efficient in like a five carry per game rule I mean this is one of the spots where like The 49ers should probably do things a certain way And give Christian mccaffery a truly featured role, but they're also the 49ers and that's not really what they Seem to want to do if they can avoid it Um, you know mitchell has been their guy when he's been healthy Which is also kind of a weird wrinkle in this is Like he'd come back from injury and like retake the role Uh that he had it's not like they were like, yeah, like it's not like they just viewed him as another guy So now they have mccaffery They won't have to run mccaffery into the ground Which is great for them as a team Not so great. Not that we want these guys to be running in the ground. It's not quite what I mean, but You know I think mccaffery might be one of those options now where the salary is going to be too high because he's a good He's a great player with a big ceiling, but he's exactly Based on I was going to say I think he's yeah going to be Austin Echler where he can burn us in four three times, but he also might Just not have the role that we want I think he's actually with a bit more yardage use Yeah, because Echler has not had that um So like a slightly better version of Echler, which might sound like oh, yeah 96 but like we typically think that Echler is a bit over salaried. So I think it's a downgrade for mccaffery a pretty big one as well Um, I'm not saying you cross him off, but I do need a salary reduction. Maybe Well, probably as he plays monday. So he's not going to get a salary reduction before next time. He's on the main slate either so It's tough. It's a definite downgrade. I would say that this would bump his salary for me. I said Jt was 85 I think I could also put mccaffery 85 because the offense is very good Um, but the role is not as good as jts Yeah, that's fair. Um And not that I'm going to look ahead till week 12 constantly but like they'll play the saints So we got like another game of data And then they're going to be in like a toughish matchup and like if this is another sort of 60 40 70 like 65 35 split Entering that week 12 matchup against a good defense. Like it's going to be really hard to get mccaffery, right? Yeah, I'm gonna be sweating it all day Sundays. I'll be underweight on him, which would be a lot of fun Speaking to the 49ers. Let's talk about their other backfield. That is in miami Jeff wilson took over the lead back duties from rachy mostert Wilson had 17 to 28 running back carries. He had five targets compared to mosterts for 60 snap rate from wilson up from 51 last week 3 to 12 red zone chances for wilson scored on one of his three rushes so it's not fully wilson's backfield, but He was effective. He looked good. They ran the ball. Well Got a lot of yardage And I think justified the expanded role that he got so Nate, they're not on the main slate, but Nate that's salary for jeff wilson coming out of their buy Based on this we got 11 11 games of the main slate. It seems like nobody we're talking about it's on the main slate Um So yeah, it was a better role, but I don't know Substantially how much better it was. So we liked him at 65 a decent amount um You know on thursday shift their way a little bit once we got like pollard and and taylor, but I think I'd have a hard time going above like 69 like I I I start to get like once you're at 7 000 I need to like I gotta it's like a switch in my head where like no, this is like Clearly at least the guy and he's gonna be the guy, but I think it's gonna be like a 60% guy and I think I'd have to max it out at 6 900 I would say 72 because I think that he's like what most it was previously except playing better like he's getting more yardage Um, was most really up there though like wasn't he like so he was 65, but we thought he was under salary Yeah, I guess so if I take like Let's say 68 is what we thought and then jack that up a bit because he's playing better 72 I think it's appropriate salary. Okay. I can get behind that. Okay Isaiah Pacheco played 50 7% of the snaps for the chiefs easily as highest marks so far this year jerry mckinnon's still involved But ceh got totally dusted. It was also a positive script for the chiefs, which will seemingly be pacheco's spot Didn't have any targets, but he ran 14 routes. So I think this is kind of confirmation that pacheco's the guy in a positive script and they can run mckinnon's the passing game back Do you need more from that to use pacheco or are you okay to use him if this role stays the same? Yeah, we have a hard time with One dimensional backs and I think that that's what he's going to be whenever the team wants to throw which is Almost always their pass rate over expectation is absurdly high They're going to go to jerry mckinnon. Uh, it does seem like you know clad Edward's e-layer is More or less done Uh, receiving relevant work, uh, pacheco was still like featured after fumbling Which is very very telling whenever they could have went back to their first round pick clad Edward's e-layer and did not do that um I don't really see myself playing pacheco on a main slate. Yeah Like it'd be hard to sit here and say they play the chargers next week Like if I was on the main slate that I wouldn't be interested because the matchup is so Juicy against that rush defense, but I couldn't go much higher than like six thousand Would you rather? Let's say they're both at home against the chargers. Okay, would you rather isaab pacheco or devon singletary? I mean both Both have like really muted ceilings For different very different reasons. I guess pacheco Me too but barely Yeah, me too devon singletary scored twice on sunday and still scored like 15 He did buck the single digits name literally because of the second touchdown. Yeah, congrats devon Uh christian watson's role got a lot better this week He had an 85 snap chair despite being the injury tent I think twice during this game still played 85 of the snaps That's up from 25 last week 35 in a five straight games entering this one 42 target share on eight out of 19 targeted passes, but still they were getting in the ball the packers 22 drop backs air watson's eight out was 20.2 Um, so they don't they don't want to throw but when they did throw on sunday They were going to watson's so they played thursday not in the main slate, but where we had a christian watson after this big game Look when erin rogers finds a guy that he feels like he can trust and go to Um, you take note even though this team doesn't throw a lot uh I don't want to say it's like a early season drake london situation, but it's kind of like maybe uh 35 to 40 target share, which is like eight targets from a quarterback who Is okay, um, I would really want to So there's another team that I was you know going to talk about in philosophical changes They were super run heavy again, and I think that their plan is When they're playing explosive offenses they're going to do everything they can to run the ball and not have to throw it Which is very telling to me so You got to go like you you can anticipate based on a spread Whether they'll be like playing from ahead or trying to like Noke the clock, but yeah You then have to guess right that that's actually how the game is going to play out It seems like a lot of complication for I know this is going to sound to score three times but for like what might be like a low ceiling guy Without all those touchdowns. I think the counterpoint would be though that They threw the ball 20 times. He's still got eight targets and still did very well on them so like That was them being run heavy and he was still good. So their paths to him still paying off even when they decide to run the ball a lot so I'm not I agree with what you're saying. I think that they're very valid points. I'm more so saying that like There are paths still To him having a good game even when they decide to do that If if he maintains this role, which is big if yeah seven of his eight targets released 10 yards downfield stupid love it so We're we like we had some interest in lasard at 67 for the game stacking purposes. Yes that I I did that and it hurt Like I had line of the jerry judy and I was like I kind of wish I'd had judy in the lasard line Even though he got a zero at least I would know that nothing was going to happen um So like where would you be main slate wise with watson? Lasard was 67 Which we said was on the high end of what we looked correct. We like I would say watson 64 I could I could get behind that. I don't think I would say lasard 58 now Maybe 55 If watson were on the main slate, I think he would be like 7 000 after a three-touch game Yeah, so I guess my hope would be then that he chills out thursday Um, doesn't do a whole lot because I think the role is actually okay Um, and I could go there. I just wanted yeah the salary and expectations to come down a bit Sting with the packers erin jones a 69 percent snap rate this week in his past three fully healthy games In terms of his adjust job opportunities, which again is carriers plus 2x targets in those past three fully healthy games He said 28 30 and 28. Those are very good numbers He had 150 yards in scrimmage in two of those three games so Each week I will write out each each uh players most relevant sample I might shift erin jones's most relevant sample to be his past three healthy games because it does seem like he's being used more now than he was before Do you think i'm getting ahead of myself if I decide to do that? I think if you're going to do that, um You are sort of assuming that the packers are going to be Taking like the keep-away approach um in in two of those three games They had pass rate over expectations of at least minus 15 percentage points Uh, it was minus 15.4 against the bills minus 23.7 uh against dallas this week, which I think is a top three rate in terms of You know run heaviness relative to expectation for the year so I think if you sit here and say They're going to do whatever they can to keep the ball on the ground that that's a relevant sample If you think for whatever reason that's not going to be the case Like i'm fine with jones to begin with yeah I think for me it's more so about his role relative to aj dillon Because one of those games he had eight carries and ten targets So like he could either get there via carries or via targets, and I think that that's kind of encouraging Oh, yeah, I mean I like dillon or I liked erin jones For like game stacking purposes. What was he 72 this week? I think yeah, um, if not for uh, jonathan taylor and tony pollard there and i would have liked and dal via um I would have gone to erin jones just because I needed to be in that range to make lineups work and not completely have evaporated ceilings for Three true value receivers. So like i'm in on jones. I think this is sort of arrow up I'm just more worried about is enough to justify changing my sample. Yeah. Yeah, I get that. I think that's fair I think that because they seem to have kind of More committed to him. I will likely wind up doing that But I would lower expectations from what he's done in that like I think that's his most relevant sample Do I think he will continue to be what he's done in that sample? Probably not But I think that's probably his most relevant sample from a user's perspective at least A lot of changes in the stealers, uh, since we last saw them they traded chase clay pool Without him for the first time george pickens deontay johnson and pat fryer mooth were the only stealers to run more than 40 percent of the routes They were all above 90 percent fryer mooth led with a 27 target share deontay 19 pickens 15 percent But also two carries got a got a clay pool, uh, where he Was in motion got the ball uh at the two-yard line. He scored There was also news that naji harris rolled scale back and did scale back a bit in terms of the snap rate at 60 percent, but he still had 20 carries He actually showed a bit of burst Which was weird Jari you got a downfield target. Um So I don't know what to think about that. Uh, whether you've used this offense enter week 11. I'm ignoring you on that question Uh, yeah, the snap rate itself for naji is concerning just because there's been talk of having him limited. I think the 20 carries was a A product of this team playing from ahead, which I it's a product baby dalton I I can't fully bank on pittsburgh playing from ahead very often. So I did not see enough here from naji to Reverse course and say like oh no, I'm in on naji at a low salary um a 60 snap rate is not good, especially when that comes with like legitimate multi-week talk of Scaling back his role. Yeah the the place that I'm most interested in obviously is george pickens. Um He was one of my loves this week. You love to see the the red zone involvement getting carries That means they want the ball in his hands uh, but also pat fryer muth at tight end like I'm good with it if tight end is not gonna Like if there aren't multiple tight ends who can just Put a flamethrower to the slate then I then I'll play fryer muth, but I and I also I I can't do deontay johnson anymore. I never could uh, at least not for the past couple years, I guess Not sure if I've used him in a dfs lineup outside of single game. Maybe not even single game, honestly. Um So they play they play since an adding next week for for whatever reason at 425. Um, that's a feature game, man. What do you mean? But Maybe that was a weirdly tight spread. My numbers say say since you should be favored by 5.68. Um I guess I'd have to adjust to the chase injury that one's not in there yet, but Like they are favored by they are favored by four and a half Yeah So give me a salary for pickens I think pickens needs to say 55 I didn't wind up using them a ton this week just because I wound up going with Oh, okay. Sorry nothing to pick but just I wound up going with like some other guys who were in that range because I like their gains more and This game is a little bit better than the one this week because the Bengals obviously are better than the saints offensively so I think I'd have to say 55 like I need I kind of at some point need to see it Tapping I don't know. What about you? So I would have said um 59 he's 6000 I think that's a bit a bit out of reach for me Yeah within this offense because it's just not particularly good. What about freymouth? Uh, he's 54 Four inches there. That's appealing. Uh, him or dulcet to 55 it's all sitch I could go either way. Honestly a coin flip and on j63, which Talk to me when he's 43 and all we can uh, we can have a conversation then James connor Did you know benjamin get hurt? I'd like twitter search today to see if there was anything, you know I couldn't find a single thing so I don't think you got hurt But you only play one snap james connor 95 snap rate up from 72 last week also dated 14 red zone chances So that's really good But it all translated to 86 yards and scrimmage, which has been the issue with connor all year It's very evident. He is a guy when healthy So arison is not the main slate but where you have with connor right now based on everything that gets put in blunder with that Um Yes, I was looking up, you know, benjamin's plays he had four special team snaps including a fourth quarter So he didn't kick off. So he probably didn't get her at least not early um And he played on a third and 15, which is not he's apparently also there like emergency quarterback Uh, because when trace mix early came in that's one of the tweets that I found was that you know It was like the backup after that so maybe that had something to do with it But I mean either way like connor came back to a 70 plus percent snap rate uh, I Kind of considered him this week early on before we had taylor and polard as more like slam dunk options come sunday morning uh Again, we don't get 95 snap rates very often from guys Of course it we need a little bit more of the yardage. I mean If he stayed I think he was 63 this week if he stayed under 65 for that level of involvement with a Like a real red zone role I'd have some interest if I needed value at running back But he's not like a write down type of option even if he were to be on the main slate and be like 65 Yeah, so you were talking about how muck gum. Are you being optimized or love? I think that connor will be that guy next to me. He's on the main slate Just because he projects for such a large share But like the I just want juice Out of the I want yardage upside and I haven't seen that yet. Does that mean he can't get it? No, we should never assume that we it's harder to project performance than than than volume But it's like this often stinks and like that makes it tougher. So I think that if he were 63 like you were saying I'd kind of have to use him But I wouldn't be excited to do it. I guess His longest rush of the season Is 17 yards Not surprising like He's like rear lavy on bell at this point Which is the saddest statement Leonard four nets longest rush is still 17 yards as well I mean still probably persist for a while because he might not be getting many in the near future But yes predicting like single game yards per carry rates are just it's Very very fruitless. Um, but If we know that a guy doesn't really break long rushes then The foam was lower. Yeah Deontay Foreman, he had a good role this week in a positive game script He had a 67 snap rate 31 carries with one target on eight routes run I think that the most encouraging thing here is that she hubbard is active And despite that foreman was still pretty clearly the lead back So I had concerns around foreman entering that game because of hubbard's return I don't have those anymore. I will note that um during the show today It was announced that bakers gonna start this week for carolina because pj walker is a sprained ankle So we get baker back for better or for worse, uh for carolina this week They are at baltimore at baltimore They were 12 and a half point dogs. I'm not sure which direction that'll move Um, uh, 10 and a half 10 and a half Let's move two points because bakers starting over pj walker. Huh I don't disagree, but i'm surprised. Um, how do you view about foreman entering that game? um So, yeah, do you want to say foreman? I feel so bad because I keep saying this name But he feels like damien harris where like if they're gonna play and not not even like this season damien harris But I don't really have a good comp for 2021 damien harris for this year. Yeah so Like if they're playing from ahead he's going to get carries and he's going to be a threat for red zone scores But other than that we can still see him be scripted out. Um It's it's important to remember he just had like a 23 yard game last week against us when they got torched Yeah, and that could happen against the ravens as well. So the thing is because they played arizona Or sorry, they played arizona in week 8 and 10 his snap was two huge games Yeah, and and the snap rate was 65 plus percent of both whenever they were trailing in between there 42 snap rate and just basically dust which baltimore is a little bit better than arizona. It's a little bit so I think like Depending on the salary here He might be an optimizer love what in the truest sense where like let's say 75 or so But it's like projected for a big workload He's going to be someone that I think is overrated based on the optimizers I can't get the damien harris comp out of my head because I think it's true And so like I put him at like 67 because like he has a path to big upside but like There's so many paths to downsides too. Like it's just a wide range of which is not a bad thing A wide range of outcomes is a good thing But like You have to bake in the fact that it decreases the odds. He hits that ceiling too Yeah, I was thinking like 68 Um, he's 71. I don't it's not as bad of the thought it be though. Yeah, I thought it'd be higher Um, I don't quite think I'll get there because I think we'll get scripted out. Like that's still a very real possibility plus I plus two like It's he's an awesome game stack candidate though because like if you think that game stays close Load up on the mar and andrew's bring it back with foreman. Like if you think that game stays close, he's sick But like you need to make that assumption to use him Yeah Yep, okay In the raiders first game without hunter renfro and first game with darren waller and ir divante adams shocker 14 targets But josh jacob said eight that's intriguing In the three games without renfro jacob's has six six and eight targets mac collins had six foster morrow foster morrow had four I think this is actually a legit boost for jacob's morrow And hollins are value options if we like the game What's your view of this offense with renfro and waller both now on ir? um I probably need to make sure I go out of my way to be very receptive to divante adams But it's not like some of we dislike adams. It's just It's really hard to prioritize the stud receivers on fandal um with the workload being all but guaranteed I think that it's going to be hard to Not to take a look at divante unless he's like 88 plus um Moro, I will say did not show me enough Initially when darren waller got hurt, but the the role has improved a lot up to the 93 route rate We kind of joked about it last year, but like When waller was hurt last year he had like a better role than darren waller Kind of is seeing a bit of that again this year. So I'd be cool with foster morrow Probably gonna be hard to get to jacob's as always because now I have the fear of like the offense being Not as ideal as they should be for what their like talent is And so I love jacob's role, but I'm probably not gonna view him as highly as some other guys But what are your thoughts here on this offense? Well, I think That the passing game work gets a bump and that's really Like maybe stinker on his offense will like scare people off Because when he was first biking everyone was on josh shake ups and was like, okay And I did get around him eventually, but like it was it was concerning so maybe the You know derek kargan emotional at the podium. Maybe that'll be push people away They're facing the the broncos. So it's a pretty bad game Name that saga for josh shake ups because I think I'd be like 86 or so still I'd probably be like 84 85 so Not a value, but like appropriate I think Yeah, sure um, what about davante? I Mean like he's pretty sick. Uh, he's 85 Like at what point I'm more likely to use davante. I think than jacob's Yeah, especially if we have montgomery at 62 if there's no harbor I can actually get too high although what I want to use a high salary receiver in a game like that Probably not that's good. No, you're right. You're right. You're right. I can see it Uh, okay. Cole commets scored twice and had seven targets a 47 percent target share Uh commet has five touchdowns of past three games his target totals and those are three six and seven or two six and seven So the air is way up on justin fields But they're still not throwing a whole lot Chase claypool's role also got diminished this past week diminished from 15 routes or whatever it was his first game I still can't get to combat What about you? Yeah, that seems like the There's going to be feeder because we're going to love justin fields Anytime he's on the main slate now. Yeah against atlanta. It's going to be Yeah, we're going to want to get there but So I I guess I guess the question is You said with christian watson That even when the team barely threw he still had a really good role So watson had Good yardage commets yardage in those three games is 11 41 and 74 And the 74 was boosted by being I think I might have been wide the f open I might have been able to catch that and house it before I got caught by nfl level players That's how I would have gotten caught. I would have got no, I absolutely I probably would have dropped out alligator on bit two even though no one was around just thinking I'd get So I'm not I'm never going to be like the so in foot quick quick side tangent in football practice They would uh at the end of the a practice once they were like, hey if the offensive lineman If the starting offensive lineman catch five consecutive passes no conditioning for today And I was the last one to go I bobbled it and almost dropped it So like I know that I'd biff it because that was a lot less pressure than this So I would have dropped it and I would have gotten caught Uh, but I did catch that one. So Maybe I could have cool come added it But I can't I think I know better than to think that I would have caught it Yeah point being uh cool come out was wide open on what gave him I think it was a 50 yarder basically like I would say he's not going to face Detroit every week, but he is facing Atlanta next week. So he kind of is but still I don't think I don't think I want to bank on that. I think it's a pretty easy jump off situation Yes, I mean, how long was that? Yeah 50 yards. So basically He had 24 on non broken plays Yeah, that's that's tough. Yeah, although Atlanta can break plays too. So whatever I'm he's 57. I don't think I'll get there. I think I need more What about fields? Oh, yeah fields is totally about Give me salary I mean, he should be like 9,000 right at this point. Probably he's 87 Sweet, I think that's fine. Um There aren't a lot of upside quarterbacks on this slate. We'll talk about that in the salary scroll I think I'm probably gonna be on a lot of Lamar this week despite the heavy spread Just because I love the Ravens. I've decided it's gonna be a big Ravens guy. Um But there aren't a ton of high upside quarterbacks. I think that helps fields be justifiable at 87 for sure Yeah, Baltimore six and three they they're You know, it's not like a win now must win but like they're probably gonna I think they're gonna wreck stuff in the second half. Yeah Like my 2022 only model Loves them and I'm putting a lot of faith in that. I think they're gonna be pretty fun. So Yeah, okay situations to monitor. What else do you know when looking at usages from week number 10? Yeah, I think it's like a role change by any means but damien pierce 63 first half snap rate finished with a 73 Snap rate overall, um, which is around where he usually is but lost out on two-minute work to rex burkhead So he's not flawless and I did a study. Um over the off season based on like when to pivot And it's basically guys in like the 7000 major running back Who if they're chalky Their roles are typically maybe overstated. Um, Especially in bad offense still love damien pierce but like bad offense Can lose out key plays key passing passing down work Just want to make sure that I'm not blindly playing damien pierce in bad spots Devin single terry 71 snap rate two scores 15.2 fandal points That's absurd. The nickname stands by the way. We're keeping single digits. He did not buck it yet uh, this likely won't change too much. Um, but In terms of like perception because we're already there but t.g. Hawkins's role Was great again 10 targets for a 20% share 87% route rate, but only 45 yards. So Probably not going to see a salary increase. I think that he's appealing whenever he's on the main slate Uh, Tyler. Oh g you're 48 of the falcon snaps. Don't say that name. Okay. How how dare you? I had I had the over on his rushing plus receiving on thursday He had negative 17 receiving yards. I can't I can't look at that name. I'm going to scroll past it. You can go ahead Okay, well this is more of a I can ignore cordial paterson Yeah mentioned for me, uh Brandon cooks did get seven targets after sitting out lap The one thing I would say paterson is that it was a thursday game after he came off ir So I would expect his role to get better than it was thursday But I think it won't get better to the point where we're using him all sorts of revenge game For paterson against the bears this week. I just wanted wanted to note that for the record. But anyway, go ahead. Thank you, Jim You're welcome. Uh, Brandon cooks statistically has a revenge game coming up just You know, but like he's not guessing. Yeah trying to get a hat. Yeah Seven targets after sitting out last week. Nico Collins though had 10 targets and ran seven more routes. Um Doesn't seem like the role's getting any better after like the squeaky wheel situation I don't really think that there's enough there might kisiki out snapped by darm smith 52 to 48 percent and harrison bryant 76 snap rate, uh, but just three targets without david and joku With the kisiki one, I would say that's probably gonna stick to like we'd seen smith out snapping him earlier on But because they actually have a running back with like they have a running back tannin with some juice right now with Wilson and most dirt I think they might be more okay running the ball and that favors smith over kisiki So I think that one's probably gonna stick to For me the bucks run defenses playing really well So the seahawks decided to use kenneth walker a lot in the passing game, which was fun eight targets 86 snap rates They're on by But I want to log in my brain that kenneth walker Really really good usage and probably a guy we should be high on regardless of scripture matchup I think that was a really good bump up for him in that game Derek henry's role was weirdly muted despite a positive script 58 snap rates he finished with 25 adjusted opportunities That's a second straight game below 30 and he had 32 or more in five straight games before that I don't know how big of a concern this is But it's not nothing at least for me any thoughts for you on henry Yeah, I liked him this week is like a gpp pivot. Um kind of galaxy brain Play wasn't even galaxy brain. I think it was fair. It was more like, you know Denver is more beatable on the ground Um and that denver's not going to run away with it and therefore the game will be tight and Derek henry will play Could they have been saving him for thursday night? They play thursday and they face. Oh, but they did it last week too. So I don't like that's a good argument Jim idiot. Sorry. I don't know. I count my own argument again, it's You can really only ever compare him to nick chubb but Like I think if he's going to have more of a skilled back workload That I'm not gonna I'm not gonna get there because he can't burn me by having tons of receiving work Yeah We know what Derek Henry does thursday nights though stiff arm show coming to green bay on thursday Well, it's almost Thanksgiving Oh, yeah, so de hember So Let's just hold off He's not allowed to do well until december. Yeah, you're right. No, you're right. Good boy I guess we won't see him again on the main slate till after Thanksgiving day. So wow Denver coming then he plays Cincinnati. So Henry 250 and 3 on november 27th Yeah, guaranteed The titans also got trail on berks back this week. He ran around on 28 of 37 drop backs Also a drop back 37 times won the world Six targets or berks Turned into just 24 yards though because nick rest book a quina Monopolized all the yards somehow Robert woods is physically still there Um I think on this team of three guys earning targets. I'm not gonna go there We talked about donovan people's jones last thursday and he had another really good usage day with the browns He led the team with nine targets and five of those were deep There was no given in joku again, but dpj is definitely viable on full slates and my interest level is increasing in him I think as the weeks go along Darius slayton another good game this week 95 yards targets. They threw to 17 times for the game, but I'm not likely with this passing game very often, but if I do I prefer slayton By an increasingly wide margin over wandel robinson who I think is a fun player, but not quite there for dfs The line's backfield remains for me at least unusable Nobody played more than 41 of the snaps because justin jackson the ball carrier worked in So it's not even a two-man committee. It's a three-man committee and their Their best back is finally getting worked in Um, even with jamal williams always a threat to score twice. I don't have much interest there. Do you disagree? No, i'm not playing tonight. I'm not going to a three backfield. I'm still playing de under swift where I need him in season long, but Dfs is not season long. Yep. Uh, thank goodness Kyron williams made his rand's debut backfield still bad darryl henderson 57 percent snap rate It need to be 157 before I'd use him 32 yards for him williams one carry three targets. No, thanks. Let's move on To philosophical changes from this week talking about the vikings first In their two games of tj hawkinson the vikings have been more vertical than they were in the past Kirk cousins 8 out 9.2 yards on sunday 10.1 percent last week. It was 6.3 percent before the hawkinson trade This is good for the offense the entire or the upside of the entire offense. So Name me a salary for jefferson and hawkinson as they face the cowboys in a decently fun game on the main site next week Jefferson like 94 Yeah Um, no push that hawkinson. Yeah like 61 Because he didn't have the yardage. So I don't think I have to get crazy and say like 65. He is 65 Um, oh, I'd use him. I haven't seen andrew's salary yet, but it depends on how close he is to andrew's Um, but 60 and got it too, but 65 is not bad Um, jefferson is 91 probably a little bit low honestly um gal 83 So he got a pretty separate was better. Yeah, it was 80 something again. That's why we've been That's why we liked him even in a quote unquote, you know bad matchup against the bills It's a much better matchup this week Against daoist. So I'll probably sell be there honestly, but yeah We're not getting discounts here by any means dalvis Oh I like that Is he from texas? Dalvin cook he's from florida. He's kidding. He went to florida florida state. He's from florida. Okay. That's kidding. That's no fun Uh, all right, uh, josh allen played through his elbow injury, but the bills were more conservative Their early down first half passer is 48 percent It was 66 percent entering this week allen himself ran six times for 84 yards Devin singletary 70 percent snapper you talked about that earlier on Targets were concentrated to stafan digs and gave davis digs had 16 David at eight So It didn't benefit the running backs. It didn't hurt the receivers at least in this specific spot. So How much does this alter your view of the bills going forward having seen one game of banged up josh allen Um, it doesn't for me their pass rate over expectation was in line with their season average I Saw way more from josh allen than I expected to see yeah So it was pretty I thought it was encouraging like He was chaos josh allen But like it seemed more like he was pushing than anything else and that doesn't that doesn't hurt him for dfs By any means if he's chaos josh allen so His sour is very high next week as is stafan digs But it makes sense allen. I think is 91 92 digs 94 Gave the babe is 71 my gosh, okay That's tough. That's tough Uh, what else did you see uh this past week that you noted games games killing me? I know Talked about the coal. It's not being as bad as as I expected at least. Um, still one of the more run heavy, uh Weeks that we had in week 10, but not again not like bears or falcons level, which I think is Appealing green bay as we talked about when super run heavy One of the three most rush heavy relative to expectation games of any team this season Tampa bay the other bay Also pretty run heavy a minus 8.7 percent their lowest rate of the year played from ahead We're able to run the ball in the seahawks. So not that concerned and again It seemed like they were still slinging it like we're trying to milk the clock. So uh I don't think that they're gonna just be a run heavy team. Tennessee. You mentioned You're surprised at their number of drop backs. They were more normal for for tennessee With tana hillback minus 4.1 percent pass rate over expectation Um, it's been minus 12 for the season in the past three games. It's been minus 14 minus 36 and minus 21 percent. So back to normal, but Probably can't use any titan with any amount of confidence at this point. Yeah, I'd agree that as well Okay, let's go to the salary scroll here for week number 11 open up the fan dual main slate for week number 11 Starting off at quarterback shout out his things stand out to you. I found what stands out to me And it makes me quite happy. That is lamar jackson 84. That is a very forgiving number Yeah, we got four guys who could rush for a hundred yards Yeah, but I guess five if you include daniel jones, but he's done it this year. I think yeah. Yeah, um But yeah, josh island 92 jalen hers 88 Justin fields 87 lamar 84 just take that below the salary but also You're not going to talk me into like Russell wilson at 6900 with those guys and their ceilings available to us Do you think the dak can hang with them dak 75 and I like that game? um Had four rush attempts this week for six yards But we talked on the thursday show about I was running a bit more in the red zone It's not kind of the yardage, but we could have rushing touchdowns Can you get to dak when we know there are four guys who can melt our faces off above him? It's going to depend on the value available at running back receiver and tight end um as of as of now Scrolling through he's the only guy. I think I could realistically consider outside of the top four Yeah, which I know if he doesn't feel like fun So just be like I I do I do think it's fun to like root for good quarterbacks though at least Yeah, it's not like I guess it's more fun in theory to be like. Oh, yeah, here's um You know someone at a $6,800 salary who can really torch things, but those those guys don't exist Yeah, at least not predictably which we talk about all the time I also think this makes it a lot harder to get to joe burrow at 383 Knowing that there are four guys with the rushing ability whereas he needs to win primarily from the pocket Yeah, he's maxed. I mean he's had it at 47 rushing yards in the opener But otherwise three games with 20 when they ran a hundred and something plays Yeah, the opener. Yeah, that's true So, yeah, I think it's gonna be I think lemar is a write down honestly for me 4.5. Yeah. I mean, there's no way I'm not playing lemar in our head to head Yeah at that salary as long as andres is back if andres isn't back then we can talk but That's pretty sick. I love lemar at that salary Uh, okay running back Shout out what you see there sick on a 97 Against alliance. I was trying to think in my head once I saw the match up like now. I thought 10k But 97 is fair 97's like the it's like a pete christian mccaffrey level Salary, but we also now and have four running or four quarterbacks at 84 and above that could just Set everything on fire if they score 40 It's not as easy just to say i'm gonna like love sake want to play amaton. Yeah, that's true fair point Joe makes his 9 000 after the five touchdown game Yikes Uh, I like jt even is an underdog 87 That game won't be very fun, but alvin kamara's salary went back down to $7,500 I think that's a bit of an overreaction to a couple of bad games he still has Great stuff in his range of outcomes. I think that was Probably down lower than it should have gone He does but he also has the eight or nine carry four target game happening too much So I think that he was over salaried for me this week. Yeah, I didn't get there. I don't think I got there at all actually I did What about remandry 81 against the jets? Off a buy we saw him kind of pull away from damien. Well, no damien is out That's why but he did pull away from damien a bit before harris's sickness He did but man, that's that's tough. Yeah, give me dow instead There's so much snap rates. Yeah, okay Uh Strolling down further I don't know when he's coming back, but tony pauler's 8,000 which if there's no zeke I still think that's a fair salary Yeah, they said he couldn't play more than 30 of the snaps and he played 72 on sunday, I think it's 72. He did like 68 or something like that like Oops I do think mcgomerate 62 is going to wind up being probably a focal point this week because of the quarterback salaries assuming again, there's no herbert if that happens Yeah, so let me ask you this because you you mentioned the cordial patterns and thing thing uh, 6,700 Does that draw your interest? Okay. Nope too high because you sounded higher on him than I was so I just wanted to Well, I wanted to make sure we didn't assume that he would keep that role, but I also think 67 is too high Okay So basically no value at running back except for at least monty except montgomery So, yeah, but frankly though montgomery with what his role had been before the herbert injury Probably not the least justifiable play that I think of so I agree Okay, moving to wide receiver again Likely no cooper cup likely no jamar chase. They're both up there, but we have digs at 94 jefferson 991 What else do you see here at receiver? Love to see cd lam above 8100 Not I think it's just deserved. Yeah I'm on raw st. Brown finally got salaried up to 78 which is where he belongs save me from myself For how good his role is? Yeah boy, there's Okay, so another week where there just aren't many options in the 7000 range. Yeah, we've st Brown at 78 t higgins 76 terry mcclore and 73 against houston I know this this rams sane scheme is gonna suck, but chris alive is back down to 69 Like I might have to be on some saints this week He almost pulled in some Some extra yardage, but but dalton keeps like throwing like hospital balls. He's trying to get this guy killed Go back to james. Uh, so corland satan is just above alave and salarie and I kind of thinking now like alave's Old school corland satan. We're like, he's got to go out and do it himself at this point. Yeah So that's kind of funny to see that it is But you know divante smith is $6,400 He has a really bad floor, but as we know ignore the floor Uh, pretty obvious path 85 yards or two touchdowns. I think that divante smith at 64 is probably a guy I'm gonna be pretty heavy on this week Playing indoors. Yeah Also gary wilson back off by he's 62 That's not low, but it's also not super super high What about your guy dairy slate and 63 too high for that offense against the lions though. Yeah, too high They might throw 17 times again true, I know we did well in that but like I can't bank on that so this The tight band around six thousands a bit rough. I guess donovan people's john's at 59 For game stacks like that. I don't know if I quite get there in one offs I like that though for his role. That's very good Curious what johan dotson's role might be tonight. They're facing houston next week. He's 59 um I could see that being okay to based on the matchup specifically if he winds up playing a lot of snaps tonight sure Michael yeah, I want to see what michael gallup did 56 and again the old like seven targets catch rate over expectation of minus 8% No yardage upside yet this year Which is annoying but free downfield targets So you have a path to it at least Yeah, what's the averaging per game in terms of the downfield targets 2.7 But like at a certain point We didn't find really any value running back Very minimal value or receiver The six thousand range was not bad In the high five range. Yeah The high six thousand range. No the the low six thousand range. Um, because divante smith is 64 wilson is 62 Maybe kurtis amuel 61 and then um Maybe yeah, and then but then like you've got dpj at 59. I don't mind that at all I think that's totally fine I guess I think there's more value receiver than there is at either quarterback or running back. Oh for for sure okay, but 64 even for smith is like pushing it for if you're building around Uh multiple stud running backs a stud quarterback Well again, if there's monty it's 62 that helps a lot I think gallup would be justifiable at 56 though. I'll probably be too high I'm always too high on michael gallup and I always regret it, but I always do it again So I will be there with you We can tilt together Ben scurronic 53. Nope I'd rather use matt collins at 54. He's facing denver, which is an awful matchup, but I'd rather use him than ben scurronic Any thoughts on the viscous chanel. No, I have no thoughts and I will not share them Yeah, I'm not seeing a whole lot here Which is typical Scrolling So Uh report over the bi-week was that the jets moving a larger more back to slot receiver I was gonna ask were you Yeah, 1,000 Is that low enough or no It's low That's actually correct. Yes I don't like I don't hate it, but I mean realistically to bog down a lineup Yeah, like imagine your line your best lineups with jerry judy this week or Any number of like one bad play like that that range of outcomes being like two targets for 23 yards and being very likely And being yeah, like median outcome is like two targets Like it I mean, I mean we should love the idea of like hitting on a great value play, but That's not Like these guys are down here for a reason yep And it's not like we're just oblivious to the fact that guys can overperform, but yeah Uh, okay Let's go to tight end scurronic or elijah moore I'd read these elijah moore I'm not gonna use Ben scurronic so I I know I know i'm not doing it. So quit asking Okay marky andrew 77. I know i'm already building a marky andrew's lamar lineup to see if I can do it 68 so if I have lamar mark andrew's and ma gummary with a defense in there at 34 I have 68 60 left For two running backs and three receivers. Yeah that's Okay, don't want my concentration Please quiet in the back quiet in the back, uh dal And let's go So 61 67 left for receivers If I go with that I want to Give me value somewhere It's monday morning. I'm sure I'm sure we'll find some. Well, we always find some after the thursday show because the weird things happen Yeah, that's true Goddard is appropriately sad at 68 finally with the yardage upside that he has he should be there and I think that is totally correct Yeah It's a bummer, but it's correct. Like really this thing though hawkinson at 65 I like the process, but I don't know if I'm gonna have 6500 to when he's that close to goddard and that close to mark andrew's yeah But I mean obviously we can sit here and say we want to play mark andrew's and goddard, but It's tough Dalton shaltz is 59. I will like that game using this past week didn't feel bad about it worked out He's had some yardage upside I don't mind that Yeah, he's the name that they really popped out to me Dulce is 55 again as we discussed higher on foster morrow But don't love that game a ton And we like dulce it's more than morrow, correct Yeah In the same game Frymuth at 54 might wind up being a necessity How sad is it that? Kyle pits is 55 we glossed over him completely who he's caught four of his past 15 targets. I'm sorry. I didn't hear any name there Oh my gosh, he's had two games with more than 30 yards And they're just chucking it downfield to him like they're actually like using him downfield, but like my guy marcus Get it together or let's see desmond cook like I full respect to marcus, but buddy what uh What what salary would you you pay for isaela likely with no mark andrew's? Um, he had five targets only caught one in that same scheme But we know he has yardage upside. He's got touchdown upside great offense Great matchup. I would put him at like if there were no andrew's I'd say like 6000 Yeah, I was thinking like 59 he's 54. So we'll keep an eye on that. Yeah, that'd be pretty sweet I would I'd I'd have a lot of him if we got him without Um without mark andrew's Again harrison bryant was more involved But you're you're betting against At least two guys who can get like 80 yards and a touchdown I could see defending joan johnson at 51, but I just like you're really banking on a touchdown Really banking on it because there has not been any yardage upside. Yeah same for bryant Yeah, I mean, I guess we might get a jockey back, but true. Yeah So as I'm scrolling I don't see anything else really Grabbing my attention down here. No Ah, I got brevin jordan down to 44 sad days He was an active this past week I should probably cut him from some dinosaur rosters I think I need to get Get serious about like the mid-range running backs and receivers because once again I don't know find a lot in the mid-ranger running back. Yeah, I know, but I mean like the 7 000 range You're talking like pierce mild sanders alvin chimera deante form in that range Like I really got a look and see like if those guys can do it. Yeah because That's basically what my construction was this week and might have to be that again this this week upcoming because There's a lot of a lot of duds waiting to happen in the value ranger receiver So is that your note future me to dig into the mid-range at running back and see what you can find there mid-range at running back and take a long look at like the sub 7 000 receivers and really really nitpick And get serious about those guys because it's gonna we want to play the the force super star quarterbacks We're gonna want to play mark andrews and dallas goddard, but yeah If I can't play doubt, uh, you know goddard and andrews then Or if I'm trying to especially that even if I like even if I Even if I play like the stud quarterbacks and like One of the Higher-side running backs it gets tight quickly it does which is unfortunate. Um, I think for me it's Dig into the Upside of the low and mid-range running backs. So yeah, can I see david montgomery? Busting it open. I think he can but I want to double check to make sure I'm not making a mistake Um digging to that digging to chimera see what uh without without outlook is digging to pierce at 76 and See if I can really do that and Live in that range. I think I can but I need to to really dig in to see to make sure that is true We're gonna come back with you on thursday to break down The week 11 main slate we'll go through trends We'll go through game stacks player picks and much more if you want to get that Live on the fangirl youtube page will be live at 10 a.m. Eastern on thursday to break down that And we'll have it up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed After so get that wherever you get your podcast by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed And also watch us live on the fangirl youtube page 10 a.m. Eastern on thursday Brandon if people have any questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at codola 13 gd ula 13 and i am on twitter at chim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in forward today. Good luck to you with your single game Monday night linus. We'll talk to you once again thursday to preview week number 11 This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire