 Welcome to Tick Mail Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 9th of November. Dollar index seemed a pretty decent drop over the last week, anything from a 1% drop against the Japanese Yen to a near 4% fall against the Norwegian Krona. Seems traders don't want to miss out on the expected rally in the rest of the world assets that a post-Trump era would signal. The week ahead will presumably be driven by the news of the US election and the President-elect Joe Biden looking to see if convincing enough fashion in terms of his win that legal challenges against pockets of ballots recounts do not open the door for four more years of Donald Trump. There will also be much focus on the Senate where it looks like the campaign in Georgia could run for a further two months and perhaps still lead to a change in control of the Senate. Price action of the last week however suggests traders are positioning for that post-Trump era, which with the Fed keeping rates at near zero is seen as potentially dull negative. Away from the US election, the US macro story is holding up quite well, including the October jobs report. US data this week will include NFIB, small business optimism and October CPI, neither of which will move the markets. The biggest threat to the benign dollar sell-off story probably comes through COVID-19. New daily COVID cases in the US are running above 100K per day, which could prompt state governors to close bars and restaurants again and move that could hit a very bullish current sentiment. From a technical perspective, dollar index appears now to be odd route to testing a wave 5 ideal target down towards 988 to 89.84. Look for some support early in the week as we retest price cycle lows at 91.75. However, as the 93 area caps any corrections, I'm looking for a test of this 90.88 to 89.84. In terms of the Eurozone, the Euro has been lifted by the broad-based dollar sell-off. Doubt really that the Euro will spend too much time above 120 just yet largely because of the coming downturn in the Eurozone economy as lockdown is by. The US may also be suffering lockdown, which could be bad for risk assets over the coming weeks. However, there may be some underestimating how quickly traders are ready to price a post-trump world. More pro-trade for the Eurozone could be one of the key factors. Another reason the market may not be too keen to spend meaningful amounts of time above 120 is the pickup in ECB rhetoric against a strong Euro. Local events for the week ahead are the Eurozone November centic survey and German ZEW of the ECB events in the week ahead. I'd highlight Thursday's ECB forum where Lagarde, the Fed's Powell and BOE's Bailey all speak. So, from a technical perspective, the key for me, the back-end of last week was the Euro taking out this descending trendline resistance. If we can sustain trade above this 118.50, I'm looking for an immediate retest of the 120 on route to an ideal 120.43, probably see a bit more corrective action then before we try and mount a meaningful attack on the 122 ascending trendline resistance. From these levels, I do expect a more meaningful correction to play out. In the UK, EU trade negotiations are getting into the final phase, with the outcome possibly emerging over the next week or two. I'll continue to expect an eventual agreement. The ongoing sharp decline in preferences of the Conservative party in polls should be more than enough reason for the UK government to move towards a deal, giving the likely hit to the UK economy from a no-deal scenario. Hence, sterling risk remains tilted to the upside in the near term. This week's gains were primarily caused by the Euro rally. But during the next week, the sterling leg should start contributing too. On the UK data front, we have the labour market data on Tuesday. Given the deterioration in economic outlook, we should continue to see signs that unemployment is rising. However, latest furlough schemes should prevent a rise in the jobless rate to 9% to 10%. However, as was the case over the past months, domestic data should have a limited impact on sterling price action. The currency reaction to the BOE meeting last week proved that case in point, with all focus really being on these trade negotiation outcomes. I'm looking for the sterling to test this 13255 to 133 area. From there, I think we can see another round of profit taking with a move back to 130 before trying to base again to move higher. In terms of the dollar yen, as we know we're trading sub 104 now, while global asset markets are rallying, it's slightly disconcerting. US real yields have not really followed to justify the move, and instead it just looks like the Japanese yen is caught up with the broader dollar decline. Here, this seems to be money taken out of US deposits and put to work across the asset and credit spectrum dragging dollar yen lower in the process. If this benign story continues to take hold, I wouldn't expect the Japanese yen to lead FX gains against the dollar, but dollar yen could continue to press lower. Fortunately for the BOJ, as discussed in recent weeks, some of its closest trading partners in Asia have also seen strong local currency gains against the dollar. We have the dollar yuan trading 6.59 and the dollar Korean one at 1120. This means that the trade-weighted yen is not particularly strong and is still some 4% from its march highs. I wouldn't expect the Japanese Ministry of Finance to be too concerned just yet, nor do I expect the market to take too much notice of the Ministry of Finance or the BOJ seeing that they are monitoring FX markets closely. It would probably take a disorderly move below 100s and some Nikkei losses to spark a more credible threat of action. So from a technical perspective, I'm looking for the dollar yen to trade lower and ultimately retest prior cycle lows here at 101.20. Expect some initial support at the 103 handle, but as 104 contains any upside attempt, I'm looking for that leg lower to test the 190 level and the projected descending trendline support before a more meaningful correction might ensue. In terms of the Aussie dollar, as we know, highly sensitive to risk appetite, a balanced short-term valuation and positioning profile contributes to the boost the currency as markets move to price in the Biden election win. The Senate race is leaning in the favour of the Republicans, but the possibility of runoff elections in Georgia may leave some space for market-friendly hopes of a surprise flip in the Senate, and the Aussies should remain a key beneficiary of a more election-related risk rallies. Looking at the domestic drivers, the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut rates and expand QE may have limited ability to curb more Aussie gains as the bank appears to have shoveled its bullets that express reluctance to move to negative rates. There's no data in Australia worth monitoring next week and no RBA speakers have known, so external factors will remain key driver on the Aussie. The Aussie, similar to the Euro dollar, has taken out its descending trend channel resistance. We now look for a wave 5 to complete the current cycle from the March lows, ideally looking for a test of the 75-13 to 76-53 area. From here I expect a more sustained profit taking move, but certainly any pullbacks early in the week to retest the descending trend line as support should be opportunities to get in on the long side to trade up to this ideal 75-13, 76-53 target zone for the completion of wave 5. As always traders, you can join me on Thursday for a live market analysis session where I'll be running through all the FX majors and some of these FX crosses and commodities and futures markets that we're currently tracking. So that concludes the weekly market outlook for week-mancing the 9th of November. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.