 Okay, very good morning to everyone. Hope you're doing well. It's Friday 25th of September Back by popular demand after last week's guest appearance. I have Sam North Hi guys. Thank you for having me Yeah, it was a pleasure Sam. I think people really appreciated your Look through of the charts and last Friday. So what we'll do is stick to the same kind of game plan as normal I'll go through some of the the closing Wall Street what's happened overnight in Asia and then generally Some of the new stories in play what we're looking out for to the dead head and then I'll hand it over to you But please do interject at any point if you want to add your view or anything like that I'm gonna spread a little bit of Trump holding a campaign rally lots of social distancing being adhered to last night, so Getting thoughts on that, but let's have a look at the charts as usual I guess that gives you a good sense of general sentiment at the open and as you can see The dick seems flat and that's largely reflected in the major currency pairs in the top left in your own sterling Gold down a touch but fairly sideways overnight down five bucks at 1871 Equity index futures us pretty flat Dax up but has been drifting lower just as we go through the European open and crude also just Drifting a little bit back towards 40 bucks down here in the bottom But earlier losses 13 cents and teen oats really are not doing anything and hadn't done to the last couple of days at all Super tight ranges there and to give you a bit of a flavor We also had a positive close on Wall Street sort of really decent bounce actually Yesterday, we were looking at those levels. This is that daily Continuation chart where we had marked up on that rectangle a decent area of support around the thirty two hundred thirty one ninety two actually marking And the area of support was seen in mid and late July and the market really responding to that quite nicely yesterday as we were talking about in the briefing and In terms of the US close the S&P and the cash finished up point three percent the NASDAQ as well seeing a pretty decent bounce This is the the chart again that we were looking at it didn't get as far down as really coming to the more interesting or solid levels of a hundred DMA Respectively in this index and the late July lows because we were just respected and bounced off that Low that we saw on Monday on that initial volatility at the beginning of the week So that's still holding and remains a key line of support on the downside as to does the rectangles still On the intraday session if things start to sour in sentiment But overall we had a higher close on Wall Street across the three indices As I said the spools up point three NASDAQ up the usual kind of minor outperformance up point six down up about two Tens of one percent now, you know why the bounce well a couple things And the House Democrats, so let me just switch over to some slides Just transition So the House Democrats now have started drafting a stimulus proposal roughly 2.4 Trillion dollars that could take into possible negotiations with the White House and Senate Republicans according to House Democratic officials and remember one of the main talking points of course of what had been seen as a contributing factor to some of the downside inequities of late has been the lack of Willingness and forthcoming of stimulus coming out the US particularly with the sidetracking of now the Supreme Court nomination with the death of Ginsburg being such a key point of contention now for the ultimate outcome and post-us election environment That's kind of detracted then from getting a deal done, which is more fiscal stimulus obviously one person who's been banging the drum for more Certainly aside from politicians has been Jerome Powell. He's kind of had a busy week speaking to various different political groups And he continues to call on the need and necessary necessity for fiscal stimulus So this is quite a positive development overall certainly probably helps Stabilize things yesterday and contributed to some of the rise House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reiterated She is ready to negotiate it with the White House on that proposal. However The bill could get passed in the House next week But Trump has indicated he's willing to go only as high as one and a half trillion at this point But I guess what the people are taking some Positive out of is the fact that they've gone from basically around five to six hundred billion To three and a half trillion now we're arriving at a number that's a little bit closer into the territory of potential deal making I guess is what the the general perception is Also separately another thing that contributed to a little bit of risk off In the last 48 hours or so had been the fact that Trump basically said he wouldn't go quietly And hand over a smooth transition of power if he lost the election But republican lawmakers Yesterday also vowed that the president's transition after the november election will occur without disruption basically Uh rebuking what trump said yesterday about his refusal to commit to that peaceful Transfer of power so a couple things there um Just to be aware of but otherwise the other kind of stories that i'm looking at this morning are From a dollar perspective in the fx markets. I know um, Sam will probably talk about this a lot more but Really nice chart that was shared by alex and the team this morning He's been talking to the guys already very early about the the dollar index And technically the dollar index is at a really quite interesting level And the dollar has actually put in its best week this week since april And do you remember what was happening in eight march april? That was obviously when the world was in full fear Global pandemic kind of meltdown and obviously everyone was flocking to the dollar at that initial phase And we've seen the best game in the last couple of sessions since that point now Where we're at at the moment though is interesting starting to look a little bit overbought and technically you've got that initial Low that was seen here going all the way back to when the pandemic volatility was really kicking in And then that goes all the way back to really 2018 price action So it'd be interesting to see how it responds here Definitely will be quite key of course for the major currency pairs But also I think it's going to be quite key for the prospects of precious metals You know one of the main reasons why I think precious metals have come under such aggressive selling pressure of late and I'm going to switch it over to to gold here gold's gone from basically an area of Quite extreme range, but ultimately I'd say consolidation after the big shakeout we had in the beginning of august But it's quietly just continue to move lower amid certainly some of this dollar strength And this week is no different at the beginning of the week. We were trading around 1920 And now we're trading down at around 1872 having printed as low as sub 1850 this week And so a turnabout in the dollar will be quite important for supporting These precious metals which have been under pressure now technically These are charts I was sharing yesterday. You've got this area Going back to really july of consolidation that would be a key area of support here on the downside But if we're looking at silver Also from a technical perspective the hundred dma Has provided quite a nice area alongside this trend line I've been keeping an eye on from the march activity when precious metals started to really get fired up and post initially the pandemic selloff that we were seeing and after the initial flurry that was seen on Thursday session We're respecting back onto that trend line. So we're interested to see where things close out the week And the reason why as well to talk about the precious metals is that commerce bank the german bank They came out They've had a research note released overnight and they said silver and gold have been oversold And the positive environment for the metals has not changed It'll be hard for the dollar to sustain its gains given the fact that the federal reserve has pledged to stick to its expansionary monetary policy And again, you know, I do agree. I mean timing of course is important when these banks Put out these notes. They're not talking so much about the intraday session They're talking about just generally over the kind of medium term But I kind of agree. I mean and interestingly Technically the Dixie here is at quite a key level of resistance now having shot broke out of this error of consolidation Over the last couple of weeks and months. So It will be interesting to see if this provides then a bit of a footing if that does hold for these precious metals Which have been ultimately under quite a bit of pressure in recent sessions Other things I wanted to talk about sticking with the u.s. Theme There was a note out of Goldman Sachs There's a lot of people talking about the fact that And this has been reflected somewhat in market positioning particularly in in options for example about the type of volatility that we could see Not so much on the election night itself, but the period thereafter given the mailing ballot system is likely to Result in a lot of uncertainties around getting the actual formality of who's won the election But goldman's have come out in a latest note and it's kind of a little bit against The general consensus. They're saying that traders need to reduce their expectation That a delayed u.s. Election result would upend markets. They said that delayed outcome is a tail risk But a combination of early results vote to turn out county level data and high correlation of polling errors across states Suggest investors will have enough information on election night to determine the likely victor So that's quite different from what others have said. I mean, I hope it's like that. I love a little 24 hour all night session Doing these big events because it was looking a little bit likely that a lot of that general overnight activity might have been diminished by the fact that it's going to be a quite protracted event that will Unfold over several weeks that gs saying for those aforementioned reasons that we might have enough information on hand though To draw some conclusions. I guess it depends how tightly actual Votes and information we have at hand at that point suggest So, yeah, just like to to note On the brexit side of things Brexit I guess has been It's so interesting, isn't it two weeks ago? Everyone was talking about brexit coronavirus spikes and it's like what there's brexit. What's that thing? So it's amazing how blinkered and uh, the market becomes You know, you have uh, obviously the chancellor unveils more formally all of the things that we were already kind of aware of yesterday in terms of his plan for jobs and so on and the economy going forward. Um, but The brexit headlines probably likely to come back to the forefront next week Um, Michelle Barnier and David Frost are scheduled to resume negotiations on Tuesday Just as a heads up Barnier told EU diplomats this week that Johnson's move this rewriting of the withdrawal agreement Have left some bad feeling but the atmosphere between negotiators remain constructive So They're continuing to push on irrespective of some of the initial threats about what Johnson was doing By breaking international law and so on Seeming me there's enough will on both sides to continue these talks to try and broker a deal Which obviously it's not just about penalizing Britain. This is in the best interest of both Countries or areas to strike a deal here. Um, the one thing though We've only got around two weeks now until the self-imposed UK PM's own October 15th deadline to reach a deal Now I would say That's not going to happen So that doesn't mean though that that's instantly going to start seeing the pound Coming under immediate pressure Several officials have already warned the negotiation could now stretch into november or even december Now that does put an incredibly Tight turnaround on trying to what had been a mid-october Commitment to then get it ratified across europe and elsewhere in time for the end of transition at year end but You know, I'm pretty confident that I think that these talks will go into november For sure and it could even go even later Does that mean that there's a cliff edge type end of end of year scenario? Well, look the goalposts have moved with this multiple times and they will move again So at the end of the day And I'm not expecting any amazing movement at the last moment here To actually get an actual deal confirmed in october I do think it is going to drag on a little bit longer, but I don't think that necessarily means that right That's it. There's no there's going to be no deal. I think I'll just make a deal later on I still think base case they do Secure a deal in the end um Just wanted a quick word on the covid situation as far as covid is concerned Um, the uk reported its highest number of new cases in a single day since the start of the pandemic. However As I was kind of suggesting yesterday I think you've got to look a little bit beyond that because the first wave case numbers of kind of peaking at 6000 in in april time Are not really reflective of probably the underlying situation was ultimately way higher than that So I think it's a bit of a A media spin to start talking about it. I wouldn't over stress that the more important thing is though uk rates are accelerating very quickly and are likely to continue to do so going forward France new infections have jumped to a record One of the questions I had I did um What we call like a masterclass on our platform Last night yesterday evening with a group of traders And they part of the conversation was about covid and they were asking me like, you know, things are obviously getting worse You know at what point what would you look for as a trigger then for markets to start becoming a bit apprehensive again about covid And for me, even though mainland european uk is deteriorating at the moment And this definitely is having an impact on expectations about to kind of shape and speed of the recovery It's the us which ultimately is the most important at the moment The us generally has not been following the trend that's been materializing this side of the pond Now one thing though to be aware of is that us new cases Did actually rise last week after falling for two months straight So in america the reason why the markets generally have been Okay, yes, we've seen some downside people getting a little bit worried about a lack of force coming stimulus Generally covid numbers have been going down and this is a net positive for for general markets However last week and more recently there's been a few signs that us numbers are starting to pick up ever so slightly Not enough yet. I think to spook people. But what i'm saying is Will covid become a new dominant theme to really weigh on market sentiment for me only if us numbers start to rise Meaningfully and consistently and we're not seeing that yet, but it definitely now is starting to come up on my radar a little bit more health experts believe that the recent spike was coinciding with the reopening of schools and universities as well as The parties that were happening over labor day, of course if you think about the incubation period Um, that was a big worry for some people about people adhering obviously to social distancing and various restrictions was probably unlikely to happen on what Otherwise is a a public holiday in america the one particular region if we look at the u.s Is the mid states so all midwest states? Except ohio have reported more cases in the past four weeks than the prior four weeks Now a lot of this Again is to do with social distancing The reason for that is because there's an annual motorcycle rally in south dakota Of which attracts annually hundreds of thousands of visitors And that is said to have caused some of that latest movement. Um, so yeah, I just wanted to explain What's going on on that side of things The uscdc director has said that covid 19 vaccine will likely not be widely available until summer All the fall of 2021 so i'm not putting a great deal of weight just in this one person Obviously, we have to layer in what authorities and bodies are saying with what pharmaceuticals trialing and how that's Progressing at this point in time But it's quite interesting because a summer of fall of 2021 for a vaccine according to the director of the cdc in the us is way later than generally where market consensus lays which is more like q1 q2 of 21 So that's the other you know, quite important thing to be aware of um I just wanted to show as well when it comes to us and social distancing. I have to just Interact is needed to share the screen. Yeah, I just want to show this Thank you florida make america great again These are all genuine photos from last night And uh, this was an airport hangar in florida Um, I can see everyone's got their face masks on quite obviously But it's just Uh, I mean it is quite quite unbelievable When you think about we are in the middle of a global pandemic at the moment to see this type of activity however You know, I think you've got to cut between the kind of the noise I mean, this isn't like propaganda. This is shared by donald trump himself So it's not like it's uh, the left liberal left trying to catch him out The the important thing here is the area. This is florida, right? and florida is Ultimately one of the most important battlegrounds in terms of the college um The the college votes to the accounts for which is where really the balance of power is not the popular vote florida Obviously given its large population is one of the highest in terms of its College votes, so it's intrinsic This always ends up being a definitive key battleground and at the moment it is pretty close And so trump is really going out there and doing everything he can to try and To try and Get this back in his favor because at the moment biden is just leading it ever so slightly in recent polling So for me, this is all you know, he he does this on purpose, of course This is to really kind of galvanize the base Also, as well, he's he's increased the frequency of tweeting about law and order You've probably seen there's been lots of social unrest across america with more The same repeat of white police killing I guess inappropriate use of power against black individuals has happened multiple times again um, so the law and order Mantra is becoming ever more prevalent just given what's happening and so yeah I wouldn't as much as I think that this is probably not particularly useful for controlling a pandemic which is showing some fairly Suspect signs of increasing in certain areas in the u.s. And florida was one of the sunbelt states that was hit quite bad I would definitely be interested to keep an eye on the numbers that start coming out in the coming weeks But you've got to understand the amount of political importance this area takes and obviously he wants to make a real statement piece out of this But yeah, quick look at the calendar just to wrap things up and I'll I'll hand you over to sam. Um today is actually from a schedule super quiet um, uk public finance data Europe m3 annual growth None of that's going to move markets courtly bulletin out of the uk as well as a non-market mover So the only real thing you've got is drill goods coming out in the states for the month of august Make a huge rig count for any oil traders a couple of feds speakers feds williams is a voter speaking twice Um in the afternoon and then in the evening if you're uk based And so maybe worth just keeping an eye on but a lot of feds speak this week I wouldn't say anyone's particularly changed the needle or moved the needle too much. So With that That's my piece done. I'll hand you over to sam Let's go over the chance Thank you very much and and um, I think it's it's interesting one the the quiet calendar which i'll come on to but also the uh If you I can just have posts Like they're sharing but also the just the the equity markets recently I've had a lot of mates which is always the case whenever the markets come under pressure Always get my mates and what's going on in the markets? What's the reason we're coming down? Is it is it due to you know numbers spiking up in europe and you know, it's it might have a tiny bit uh In the way of Of a reason behind it, but for me, it's all about the the u.s. Dollar and absolutely if the u.s. Numbers You know really do start to pick up that is going to weigh on things whether the u.s. Do anything about it or not Is that is another question but for me? Yeah, the u.s. Dollar is really having Uh an impact across all markets who you talked about gold and silver and how they had a little bite Lower to then you know recover yesterday and euro dollar is is the same and it's almost like the the fed meeting was Was that what sent markets lower the pronged? You know the The reluctance to do anything more just yet and I think there's still a bit more to go to be honest I'm not sure markets are low enough for geron power to come out and and deliver another bazooka. So How do we we look at that from a technical point of view? Well, look, it's the it's the last day of the week So therefore we're going to be looking at weekly closes and and as long as the euro for you know looking here at Dollar balls as long as the euro finishes below, you know, this highlighted area this trend line I think the the bears are going to be really happy, you know To finish What day was that the 22nd below there was key. We then have some continued selling the next day Okay, a little bit of pause a bit of profit taking for those that are You know happy enough with this push through and as long as it stays back below sort of 117 and a half I think that the You know this this market can continue to go lower. It just might be that you know We have a quiet calendar with you know a bit of profit taking into the end of the week We do have a bit of recovery which is going to aid All the other dollar related pairs which just so happens to be a lot of the markets at the moment as they're sort of moving off that So, yeah, euro dollar looks good. I mean look 115 is sort of talks about as the The next area that we come to and we might well look back and and say well look when the market was at the high Is one person that's moved everything and that's ecb's lane with one comment and we're now all the way back down here We'll have to see how that pans out of course over the coming weeks the euro then on that 60 minute And this is just bringing in the pivot points now. You can see it's got a fair bit of room to go to the upside To retest that whole area that level resistance We'll have a look at the pound in the mark in a moment But that did exactly the same broke a massively key level of support Ground higher for about four possibly even five days before then really pushing lower again So, yeah for the euro it wouldn't surprise me to see you know today and monday a grind higher Like alex have been talking about in our in our amplifier live trading room the dora index is um, you know, it's over overbought for each uh, for example, so it has uh, You know on the short term so it can have a little bit of a pullback potentially But yeah, just have a look at the pound then on that longer time frame going into the end of the week Obviously it's going to be key and and this is what I was talking about in that that support level breaks and then one two three Four, you know, you could argue the fifth morning there as well. It did push higher Oh, it's then come back lower break the lower the month and now we're just trying to find a bit of bit of support On this market and you can see it's a significant level here for for the pound decision time for sure It's got to take place and I was posting this on on twitter yesterday just the significance of this whole area you can see why it is Uh, but we found support there you can see The resistance triple top from 9th of july to the two days that follow turns into support Then we hit it again for a close of the week perspective, you know, the if there are any Pound bulls they won't price above that but that may well see other You know pairs against the pound Other crosses actually push higher as we see a bit of pound strength on this support and a bit of dollar weakness potentially today That's how I see things Falling out for for the remainder of the pound here you can see That sort of comes to fruition if we do break above today's our one yesterday's high Thursday's high The low that we had on the 21st you want a great level great line in the sand that is it there There's nothing to say that we don't find resistance here start drifting lower The euro does the same and then we see dollar strength into the close of the week and it gets ugly elsewhere But if we start to see a push above here, I think we can get a quicker move towards that That up to no means that means that the dollar is now going to weaken for a period of time It just means I think that we can have a little bit of a break gold You can see yesterday found support and as well at the moment slightly up But this looks okay for those people that potentially wanted to go long I don't necessarily think waiting for 18 28 the highest that we had back from april is a bad bad move I think we could still get there You can also see silver like you mentioned Just pushing lower and you know, this was it was something that I was looking at When I did the masterclass two weeks ago in the false break of 26 and the false break for gold on 1900 both never really took place And you know dollar weakness would obviously help that come through. But yeah silver finding a bit of support If it can finish above 23 77, you know, that would be you know, a minor win for For silver and then we could potentially start to see a push higher But at the moment If if I was a dollar ball, I'm happy regardless of a move higher It's other than a flick over to to look at the s&p like you mentioned 100 day moving averages across the board weren't too far away And we found some good support Yesterday decent pop higher. It's not out the woods. Of course, let's just get the Moving averages on as well the 50 21 and 200 the 50 day moving averages has been key for For this market. So I would keep a watch on that more importantly, and I'll come back to the s&p The dow Jones you can see the 50 day a couple of days ago was the top and there's been incredibly well respected So you're trading the dow on your longer time frame keeper a watch on that and obviously the and as that you can see exactly the same So yeah, they're looking at the 50 days. So we're going to look at it So keep a watch on that keep it marked up on your longer time frames going into then the the close of the week And I think, you know, there there is a bit more downside in this market And you know, it's not panic stations I think it's healthy. I think we still finish the year On the highest a bit of that, you know does depend on on trump winning the election for me But is it panic stations if we're only 9.4 of a high, I don't think so. I think the dollar, you know was you know Under pressure for quite some time strengthened. This is obviously going to bring all markets lower and it's healthy enough. I think You know from a support point of view And I think it's a long yes say on 100 day moving average on the s&p But I have got this area marked up here 31 75 you can see a nice area of support Around here turns out to be you know another area where prices reacted quite strongly to so that's something I'd be looking at To the flip side if we do get above the 50 day moving average, you know Then you're going to come to the 21, you know, do you remember when we did the the live FOMC on Was it the 16th of September? It must be 16 basically when all markets turn I was saying if we finish about 34 Well, this these these recent highs we're going to all-time highs that didn't happen and you can see we push lower So that's another one, you know just area to be aware of as we go into the shorter time frame now on the The s&p and start marking up some of these levels that we just bring in the pivot points You can see There is another key point today that from a bullish point of view that might support Yes, they being a short-term low We would need to get above today's r1 the support point from wednesday almost turned to the high yesterday And really for me is is a key line in the sand where if we can get above there The balls feel a bit more confident, but as mentioned elsewhere I think the test is going to come if the dollar weakens over the next couple of days When it comes into very key resistance or say you're a dollar What that is then going to lead to for the rest of the market and it's going to be really really interesting Another market just to wrap up for you and I've got obviously oil here and you can see this on Let's just put let me remove some of these studies. We'll have a look at this on on the the On the daily chart Bring that in and see about you said just flirting around that sort of 40 bucks This is how we finished last week, you know on these previous highs that we had Turns into being you know really nice resistance I think anyone sort of bearish oil at the moment can still be happy enough and and stops will be above there for sure So, you know, this is almost how I potentially see you're a dollar panning out I know it's completely different market, but the dollar has got some sort of weight on commodity pricing here So the breakthrough comes back to find resistance and we can then start to maybe push lower as we go into the close of the week To put this onto this the 60 minute Bring in the pivots just for a bit more context You can see like the s&p like euro like pound just above where we're trading There is a massive resistance where any bulls are going to want price to get above So we've got the s&p the r1 oil the r1 obviously similar for nasdaq and dow and also the pound where we're just trading Almost now as well. You can see just above This point here This would be a minor victory for anyone that wants to go along these markets on the flip side for continued downside today I think those levels have to hold. Thank you and for inviting me on always a pleasure never a chore Good stuff. Good stuff. Well, um, yeah, if anyone's got any comments for us at all if you're watching this on on youtube Don't forget to subscribe to the channel I know sam always puts out a video on the sunday as well where he'll go over similar to what he's just done there for the Week ahead You know that in combination and I guess with the briefing I do on a monday It's kind of a great way to to start the week We hope for you guys But any comments on this video just drop a comment and we'll reply throughout the day But otherwise, thank you sam and have a great weekend. Okay guys