 The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. This is awesome. Come and tell Evu. We're going over to Paris. What's happening? Hey, Tom. It's Adam from Paris. How are you, sir? I'm doing great. Adam, yourself? That's good. Long time no talk. I appreciate everything you've done for me and my family over the years. We appreciate your ground, when I'm proud of them with us. Yes, sir. I've done the Gold Reports and all the softwares and all your books and rep, it's generational. Thank you. You have. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Yes, sir. Now, Tom O'Brien. Hi folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We've got five days a week. We've got seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you You focus on growth, so everyone's having a great day, safe day. Happy Valentine's Day out there, folks. Give a lot of love, get a lot of love. Love is unconditional. And love, there are no conditions. You love for no reason with no justification. You are free to be what you are, and you rely on others to be what they are. Try that again. Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries up 66, Nasdaq up 135, S&P's up 28. Gold, gold contract down $3.20, trading at $2,004 an ounce. We have Silver up 24 cents, $22.39 an ounce, a late-sweet crude, down a buck 34. $76.53 a barrel, notes and bonds. You get the 10-year note, trading up 11 ticks at 109.31, the 30-year, up 16 at 118.15, and king dollar. Trading down 200 and we disappeared. 242 ticks, 104, 718, Euro at 107, the ends at 150 and the British Pounds at 125 to one US dollar. Our phone number's 877-927-6648. Give us a call, folks. Want to know what's going on in your world. In the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. What do you have? Well, bottom line here, the CPI come out yesterday. Market trades down high. Every end of C just right across the board. It doesn't matter what you had. Everything's down. So we take a look at the spy. What we have is this. Right now, the spy's up $3.20 to $147 million shares. You get it? We're gonna bring you back to the last downdraft here, okay, because the last downdraft my take is that's what we're gonna go test. And this is in the spy. So this is an easy way to figure it out. I just had a question. Do you think it's gonna be a 10% correction? And I don't. The reason I don't is what I'm gonna show you right now, and this is only about a 3% correction from probably where we are right now, is that what you have is this. Is that you came off the high, okay? We know we've been stretching it, I don't believe, okay? But bottom line is you come off the high. You come off the high with big volume, okay? 103 million shares. But the high volume high out here is 124 million shares. So we didn't even make it to the high of the high volume bar. And the high volume bar, the top of that bar is the 489, the bottom of that bar is 482. So when you have something like this, the first thing that normally happens is you get the bounce. The bounce is on life volume, okay? You get a little more of a bounce, I suspect. And then it's gonna somehow try to fire off again and come down into the 489 to 482 level. Now, that scenario there, folks, okay, is a bullish scenario. That's a bullish scenario. Now let me give you the bearish scenario. This would be the bearish scenario. The bearish scenario goes like this. The bearish scenario would be that you go back up to these highs and as you're crawling back up to these highs, each and every time we get higher, that volume drops off again. Because what that would be doing is that that would be building cause. Because if it takes too long to do that, that's actually building cause, I know it's deviant, for a bigger expansion on the way down. So just to go over it again, the quicker that you get this fire off to the downside, the more bullish it is. The longer that if we come back up, let's pitch it, let's pitch it, it shakes it all off, it comes back up, it says, hey man, I don't care, I'm going up there, if you get up there with light volume, then that changes everything. Because that's too much cause being built. But that's what we settle, sit right now. Let's go to the note and bond market and take a look at notes and bonds, okay? So you take a look at the note and bond market, what you have inside there. Yesterday, you come down hard and fast, let's bring this up. The volume didn't explode like it should have. This is, you know, we did 2.5 million contracts, but that's still not a lot of contract volume when we were going up on 3.1, 3., yeah, 3, we had a couple threes in there, okay? So today it's 1.69. This here, we're already inside the larger range again. The larger range is 109, 20, 109.23. We hit 109.17 yesterday. So I suspect what this is gonna do, this is gonna build more cause to what, to go higher once again. Now the dollar did exactly a 0.618 retracement of its whole move down. You know, right to the tech too, which is really wild, man. So check this out. So a little above, actually, yeah, just fairly above it, okay? So we had, you're below it right now, but you can see what happened. You went into the monster down draft that was out here from November, you did the 0.618. The real question is gonna be what does this dollar want to do? And then we go to the gold market. So what happened with the gold market? They destroyed the gold market yesterday, the gold contract price. That comes down hard and fast. Now what's gonna be interesting here was this just the blowout bottom inside gold. The reason I'm saying that, you can see that the expansion of price of volume was huge. What we also did is that it wanted to test this 2007.60. Now we did that, but you can see right now we're still at 2004. So you want, if you're in the gold market, you want this to be above 2007.60. There's another range down below there, but that's the number. Now what we did out here today is that, yeah, we rejected lower price. We'll see if we get any juice inside of it. And we'll go from there. The NQs are the same setup. Actually, let's do the Qs. You're gonna see the Qs are the exact same setup as the S&P. So the Qs came down hard yesterday. Yeah, they didn't make it either. They didn't make it to... What the Qs did do though, that's just interesting. Yeah, we'll be right back. We're gonna talk about these Qs as soon as we come back. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. Dow, Dow Industries right now trading up 74. Nasdaq's up 137, S&Ps are up 29. Stay right there folks, come right back. 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Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we offer a 30 day money back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. You have absolutely nothing to risk. So why wait? Tune in live to Tiger TV and transform your trading journey because when you know better, you invest better. Join us and experience the difference today. TFNN, educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Welcome back folks. The Dow industry is up 91 as except 143. S&Ps are up 31. Let's go to our man, Koster in Boston. Koster, what's going on brother? I'm doing good, Ben yourself. Fine, thank you. Listen, I bought Newmont Miami yesterday at 32. 200 shares, I want to pick up more at a lower price. Do you think I'll be able to pick it up? Let's take a look. And Koster, you know what? I always love that hair and that voice, man. Thank you very much, man. The low for Newmont folks is 31, the highs 52. Now this equity folks is one of the biggest gold equities in the world and it's been a complete dog. I mean, the gold market itself hasn't helped it, that's for sure. So the next, let's take a look at this. So their next number coming out, now this is going to get interesting, Koster. Look at this, this is, so they must have bought a mine and must be coming on. Okay, so February 22nd, because when you see this revenue number, this is a whole different ball game, so check it out. They've been banging out 2.5 billion to 2.7 billion for the last six quarters, okay? This quarter here, they plan on doing 3.4 billion, okay? And they're going this year from 11.3 billion on a yearly basis to 16.1. And what happens folks is this, that is very hard for a gold company to do. I suspect they probably, there's something that they bought in here that's starting to kick in or another mine's starting to kick in. The bottom line is that it's a good thing, okay? So when we take a look at this, that first off, what do you want Koster is this, right? You want to see this get back inside the $33.50. You know, that's the range, meaning if you get back inside that range, you're going to be in good shape. You know, as to it going lower, if I'm sure you heard the first part of it, I think that we actually just saw a blowout low on the gold contract. Now that doesn't mean that there's not going to be testing involved because there always is, you know, and they're not going to make it easy. So, you know, I mean, if you try to get a few more shares, just sit there and wait, and you know, we hit the, what, the 31.60 yesterday, normally if you're going to test again, it'll probably break the 31, but it'll be a spike, meaning that you go down, you spike it, the market's going to want to see if there are any more sellers below that level. If there's not any more sellers, then you're going to jump topside pretty quick. You're at a great level right now because of this $33.50, because if it gets back inside 33.50, the next move is all the way up to 42, you know? So. Okay, Tommy. Okay, man. Well, listen, you have a great one and a safe one. It's always a pleasure. Thank you. Thanks, man. Let's go to John and Orlando. John, what's going on, brother? Hey, how are you, Tom? How you doing? I'm doing good, man, yourself. Good, good. You missed a good show yesterday with Tim Hort. I can't say enough about this guy. No, I know, no, I listened. I heard, I agree, man. I'm telling you, I was driving home and that the stock market was down 500 points. And I'm going, and I'm listening to him really close and he's talking about the VIX and the trend. And then he came out of nowhere and called it that this is a one day or two day bottom and we should bounce out of here and this is great call. I mean, I got home and bought some Uber just because of his call. I love it. And, you know, Uber, big number out here today, you know, the low is 29, the highest, 78. Bottom line is that the 9.9 billion they did in the quarter. And just to give you an idea, folks, okay? In 2020, they only did 11 billion for the year and they just did 9.9 in 90 days. And, you know, what they're looking at is that the bottom line is that I believe this was the first, I think this is the first year that they were actually profitable. Let me see this one second. Yes, I think so, yeah. Yeah, it is, it is. Okay, so that just put them in 87 cents. And, you know, the stock, now this is really wild, okay? Is that where we are, folks, in the market, okay? So, picture, two years ago, we were at highs. We're at highs again, but we're just barely over those highs. Now, if you go back to Uber, right? You get a whole different thing happening, man. And that is really cool because, you know, Uber had a high of 64, you're already at 78, you know? So, this is a good setup, man. This is a good setup, John. Just, you know, this is one of these deals that, you know, like when you have a stock that is this strong and you're in a slight downdraft, it says quite a bit, man, do you know what I mean? I think they announced today they jumped really good because they are gonna start buying their shares back. That's correct. That's correct. Right, right. Yeah, and then also, I'm looking forward to keep this for a long term because the autonomous cars, they might get into that in the future. So, this could be a really big thing. And there's no doubt, and what you have is things, it's so easy to get an Uber or get a Lyft, okay? That if you haven't done it, folks, I can tell you, once you do it, it's really easy and it's really great. It's really not that expensive if you're using it the correct way. I mean, if you're out at night, if you're running to work, okay, there's things that really make a difference. If you're in a city, what happens, which is huge, is that because the parking is so expensive inside cities, right, you know, bottom line, people are using Ubers and Lyfts all over the place, man, so. And you just don't know what else he wants to develop, you know what I'm saying? Yeah, Tom, could you imagine if they're half of their fleet is robot, I mean, you know, self-driving cars, could you imagine that? No, that's cool. Hey, listen, man, it's gonna happen, you know? I mean, you know, I can tell you something, the first time that, you know, let's see, that was probably about six or seven years ago. Now, I don't have no self-driving car. I got a nice sports car, but what happens is that the first time that even the lane change, it stops you from doing that, it gives you a warning. That in itself was awesome. I can't imagine just a real self, you know, I mean, like a Tesla, you know what I mean, to the bottom line, and that's real. And in particular, what's really real, you know, like down at the Wharf in St. Pete folks, okay? I actually saw a bus, they had a bus there last year on a test drive, right? Now, it was only going like about, you know, maybe a, let's see, a thousand yards. No, like 10,000 yards, 10, you know, a thousand yards, yeah, 10 football fields, okay? But it was going all by itself, picking up people, dropping off people along the water. Now they had someone watching it, but just seeing that, I mean, you're talking about the middle of huge amount of traffic folks, okay? And it was fine. Wow. Cooking brother, have a great one, have a safe one. Okay, man. Stay right there, folks, we'll come right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. 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I'm saying, okay, I must've did something. Well, Newmont folks had bought Newcrest. Newcrest was the largest gold producer in Australia and have been for years, okay? This acquisition itself is one monster. I mean, because what you also have is this. There's the changing texture of politics around the world and I'm talking just about the gold market right now because you gotta remember something inside the gold market. Inside the gold market, your first deal is that, yes, you gotta find the ore and get the ore out at the correct price, right? But right along with that is the politics behind basically mining because mining's a dirty business, okay? And what has happened is this, is that if you ask any analyst even five years ago, do they think that we would have some problems in the mining sector in Mexico, people would say you're out of your mind, okay? Mexico was built on silver, period. I mean, you're talking about one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world, right? Until they got the last president, okay? So now, I'll just give you an idea, watch this, MAG. This is like, this equity, this guy did everything correct, okay? This is MAG silver, right? The low is 822, the high is 1442. You look at these numbers, okay? Watch this, they only have 11 people. They take in 340 million and they make money. So check this out, this is what you're gonna see. Taking 340 million, they're gonna make 46 cents this year, not 74 cents next year. The numbers that are still in here are good. What the market is worried about, but you can see that they have, let me show you the equity. The equity's been a disaster, okay? Because what the market's still worried about at any time, what can happen is that they can just decide that you know what, man, we're not renewing this, we're gonna pull this license from you. My point is this, you're at eight dollars and 40 cents, the stock should be, well, yeah, let's look at it this way, I wanna see what this is. This is gonna be crazy. Yeah, okay, so you're talking about, oh my God, I think we're talking about a PE of almost one or two. That's how crazy it is, because the market's that worried that it's gonna happen. Well, now let's go back to New Crest for a second. Australia is one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world and will continue to be, because their whole economy, it's a commodity-based economy. So anyway, if we go back over to Newmont and we take a look at Newmont, they probably bought this right at the right time, man, because when you take a look at these numbers, what you're gonna see, I mean, look at those numbers, man. If you believe that the price of gold is gonna stay up here, well, these are big numbers, man. And on a three-year run rate, now in the part of gold, I don't know if this would be updated, they're only growing 1.2%. Silver, however, is growing by 10%. Zinc is growing by 15%. Copper is growing by 5%. Lead's growing by 5% per year. Those are great numbers, man. Those are definitely great numbers. So anyway, that is what's going on with Newmont. And it's real possible that whole downdraft that we just did watch in Newmont had to do with the market, not digging the deal first, penalizing it for the deal. And guess what, folks? Time heals it all, man, because the bottom line is that all of a sudden you think that, you know, gold is at 2,000 bucks. Five years later, gold's at 3,000 bucks. It's like, oh, really? $1,000, that's 50%, which gold does, okay? And to the bottom line, though, it's hundreds of billions of dollars because you're talking about millions of ounces, not thousands or hundreds of thousands of ounces. So pretty wild, man. Let's go take a look at some of the higher volume equities out here. You know what's gonna be interesting, folks? Have you noticed that there's a story out here today? Yeah, let me just get this for you because this is gonna be like, they're all claiming, oh, and I'm gonna get the commercial real estate. They're all claiming, so there it is here. The new guy, the open AI gym in Brechtaila, a dismissed concerns that his new enterprise AI chatbot startup, Sierra, could compete with the chat GBT maker one day after announcing the launch of the new company. I don't really think that, this is his quote, open AI and Sierra are competitors. Taylor said an interview on Bloomberg today. We exist in a different layer of the stack where customers of AI, in addition to be a number of other foundations. The amount of incestuous relationships, folks, inside the AI business is like insane. I don't think I've seen anything like this since I've been in the marketplace, meaning they all claim that, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You got Sam Altman out there. He's gonna raise seven trillion. All these relationships, yeah, there's gonna be a million conflicts. That's the Wild West. That is the Wild West, but it's a good Wild West. I'm just saying that putting your money in some of these, people must be like, oh my God, okay, so I give him a couple hundred million, but I better give everyone a couple hundred million because we don't know who is gonna come out on top here. Do you know what I'm saying? If we get into the commercial real estate, the hound dogs, meaning the banking hound dogs and everyone else is trying to hold up commercial real estate, it's pretty amazing. It's pretty amazing in the aspect that the mantra keeps coming out that the regional banks are okay. The regional banks, folks, are not okay. The regional banks, I'm gonna get you this number. I think it's 40%. On their books, they have 40% of the commercial office buildings in the United States. Listen, the commercial real estate office buildings are worth 50% less than they were 10 years ago, 5'0". No one has that much money. 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This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks, at Dow. Dow investors right now, 105, Nasik, 177, S&P's are up 38. Let's go to natural gas. Let's see what we got happening out here in the little natural gas contract. So we're running 160. We're down seven pennies out here today. No ends in sight, okay? So let's say NG1, let me do it this way. Natural gas loves to trade like this, by the way, folks, okay? Straight down. Okay, so let's see, let me do a weekly first. Because we've been down at this level before. I just want to figure out where we are. Okay, so what is this over here? Yeah, you get another 20 cents to go. 140s. We already broke out, we broke down. You know, I wouldn't be touching this thing. 140 is the next level. It doesn't mean I can't break that either. Yeah, that's how this thing is set up right now. The, if we go take a look at, yeah, Tysako, you got movement here, man. This is where this gets interesting, the whole copper deal in general, okay? So you can see Tysako's up about, no, 12 cents, 151, what's sticking out like a sore thumb here. We put this up, and what you're gonna see, I think we broke it now. Yeah, we did, okay. So this is on its way up to this 190 area. You can see, I mean, this is like a classic, man. Do you know what I'm saying? You went higher, you pull all the way back, you have light volume. Tysako has had two nice signs of strength. We had one nine weeks ago, and you had one three weeks ago. Now this will be another one right now, because we're rolling out, well, we're on Wednesday, we'll see, but you can see what's happening. It's breaking that deal. That means it's going higher. Now listen to this number, man, this is crazy. But we know that Cathie Wood is one of the best marketers in the world. But when you just see this, this just came across the Bloomberg, okay? The headlines is, Cathie Wood lost $14 billion, but she's still interesting. So listen to this, man, this is crazy. Okay, so this is saying, this is from 2022, right? Okay, so long shot equity funds. Now this is all her funds together. That's what it is. On the contrary, many providers of mutual funds, exchange rate funds, Iraq investment management, topped the chart and wealth destruction. It's family of ETS, ETFs, which managed 16 billion as of 2023, wiped out 14.3 billion in shareholder value in the past 10 years, according to Morningstar. That being said, miraculously most investors stayed after gaining huge inflows in 2020 and 2021 and withdrawals have been fairly muted. People are sticking around because Wood's pitches are interesting. She's been buying the dip in Tesla even as Wall Street saw was on the stock because demand for electric vehicles is slowing. Wood nailed her bull case prediction in 2018. Some would argue her stout and rose with that conviction call. Yeah, it definitely did, okay? But consider her exposure to artificial intelligence and then questioned by skeptics when she sold NVIDIA. Even massive losses can turn into a positive gain at ARC. Imagine years of tax write-offs. I don't think many people understood what an asset we have in terms of those tax loss carry full as Wood has said. You gotta love it, man. Anyway, pull the article, man. I mean, but the bottom line is that this is how Wall Street runs, folks, okay? You know, and if we go back to the commercial real estate for a second, so what's happening in the commercial real estate also is this, right? So picture, in the commercial real estate, folks, what ends up happening is that, you know, normally those loans are about 10 years, okay? And they're only interest, they get a balloon payment at the end, okay? So, you know, on some of these, you're starting to come up with this whole deal. Now the same companies that are actually giving back the keys, okay, taken losses of 40, 45% have also just raised billions of dollars to buy discounts inside of the office market. The real question is, this is what the real question is, the question is, what is the market for them and is it still too early? And we know that there's been billions made many times, you know, going in, buying the blood. The real question is, is there another leg down or not? And hey, we'll see, what do you mean? That to me, the risk is still a little bit too high because there hasn't been enough transactions. And what ends up happening, I will never forget when the Wang Building in Boston got sold on auction and that was the bottom of the market. But the bottom line is that no one was bid and I think they went for $100,000 and we're talking about a couple hundred million or a hundred million or whatever. Because what it was, it wasn't the aspect of the building, it was the aspect of taking care of the building, paying the taxes on the building, even if they were gonna be reduced dramatically. You know, there's a lot of ends and outs there. But when you cut to the chase, the chase is that the regional banks are hiding as much as they can hide. That's what it really comes down to. And someone's gonna, I suspect, well they won't give us the numbers because whoever really does do the work and figures that out, if they have to mock them to market, which they will at some point, because what ends up happening is that the further, the more deals that actually get done, the more that pressure is gonna come on that you don't have enough from reserves. So I suspect the next thing will be, you'll have people putting a lot more in reserves, which will hit the market in general, will hit the regional market, not the stock market. But I think, now let's go to the interest rate structure because now what we're talking about is that when you actually take a look at the, let me see if I can, and if you wonder, see the Fed could stop this right now. The real question is, is that do they wanna? That's what it comes down to. Let's go to John in New York. Hey John, what's going on? Hi Tom, how are you? I'm doing great, man, yourself? Okay. Cool. So what are we gonna look at here? Right Exprecious Metals, it's our online PMX. Okay, good. You just stay there. We'll take a quick break. As soon as we get back, we're gonna look at the Right Exprecious Metal Fund. This is Tom O'Brien, this is TFNN. Wow, that was up 118 as except 191 S&Ps up 41. Stay right there folks, we're coming right back. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks. We're talking with John from New York and we're talking about the Ritex Precious Metal Fund. You know, John, I like what this looks like. I like what it has inside it, you know. They look like blue chips, right? They are, man, they're, and not only that, you got 10% is free Port Mack Marin, 7% is Newmont, 7% is Barrick, 6.7 is an eco-eagle. You got Wheaton Precious Metal, 6%, then you got some funds. You just government bonds at 6%. Frank and Nevada, Goldfields, they got, this is a nice portfolio, man. You know, your expense ratio is 1.37, so it's, you know, $1.37 out of 100 bucks, folks, okay? If you own it, I'd stay right there, John. It's, that's- I'm thinking of adding to it, is it too early? I think this is the time. You're gonna hold your nose, man, but yeah, I mean, it's one of those deals. I'm only waiting for a couple more days. I was gonna go right back at it today, but I'm thinking that because I think that the S&P is gonna go test that lower level, John, that I think Gold will do the same thing. So maybe wait a bit, you know what I mean? But this is a great portfolio, man, I can tell you that. This is much better than the HUI, the, you know, XAU. I mean, it's set up nice that, you know, you get the copper inside it with that Freeport-Mac-Maran plus the gold, okay? Cause when you go to watching to take a look at this, Freeport, do this one. Let me take a look at this. This set up here, folks, okay, with Freeport-Mac-Maran ratios, revenues, here we go. Okay, so when you take a look at it, I mean, they have copper out at six billion, golds at nine billion. I mean, they got some nice deals here, man. I'd stay right there and be, you know, you wanna add some, maybe wait a week. Cooking, brother. Thank you. Thanks, man. Always remember, folks, the bank and Cloya hide out the book and run you over and thank God, there's always another trade. Have a great one, have a safe one. Happy Valentine's Day, folks.