 Welcome traders to another Tickmill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 28th of November with me, Patrick Munnerley. In the US, the market firmly believes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points on the 14th of December, given Fed speakers have indicated the likelihood of less aggressive step increases in interest rates after four consecutive 75 basis point hikes. However, the economic data is proving to be pretty resilient and markets are a little nervous that a 7% fall in the US dollar against the currencies of its main trading partners and a 45 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield is leading to a significant loosening of financial conditions, the exact opposite of what the Fed wants to see as it continues to battle inflation. Consequently, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed language become more aggressive over the coming week, talking about higher terminal interest rates with some of the more hawkish members perhaps even opening the door to a fifth potential consecutive 75 basis point hike. Although markets don't really coalesce around this idea and it's really more of an assurity to the markets that they get the message that the Fed is looking to tighten financial conditions. Currently only three officials are scheduled to speak this week, but wouldn't be surprised if we suddenly start to see some more appearances on the media. Data-wise, the jobs report on Friday will be the focus, but there will also be interest in the ISM manufacturing index and the Fed's favourite measure of inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure deflator, both of which are out on Thursday. The ISM is likely to drift just below the break even 50 level, given the softening trends seen in regional manufacturing indicators. PCE deflator could be interesting too, since it doesn't always match what happens in core CPI. If you remember that rose only 0.3% month-on-month versus expectations of a 0.5% increase and was the catalyst for the recent drop in Treasury yields as expectations for Fed rate hikes were scaled back. At 0.4%, give or take, print for a month-over-month core PCE deflator could generate quite a sizable reverse reaction. Meanwhile, the jobs number should hold around the 200K mark, given the number of vacancies continues to exceed the number of unemployed people by a ratio of 1.91. Nonetheless, there are more firings going on in the tech sector and the increase in initial claims also points to softer employment growth in the coming months. From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index continues in the downtrend for now. What I've been looking for this week is an initial break of the 105.55 to retest the 105.14 lowers. We get to acceptance below there. We look for a test of our target zone at 104.39. From there, I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns for a potential counter-trend rally back up into the trend channel resistance just above 107. Note this red line here, the 105.50s. If we hold this level, there is the potential we do a double correction and test into the 108.20s before moving lower once again. So just pay attention to a break of that 105.50s and then down through 105 into our target zone. Moving to the Eurozone and in terms of data next week, all eyes really are on inflation. Has the Eurozone inflation figure really ever been more important than the November reading that is out on Wednesday? With ECB focusing more on current inflation developments for determining when to move to smaller rate hikes, the November inflation figure will be very relevant for the December rate hike decision. While energy prices have been moderating and other supply shots are fading, the question is how quickly this impacts consumer prices. Also keep an eye on unemployment data release on Thursday. Any sign of labour market slowing will also be taken into account at the next policy meeting. From a technical perspective, as the Eurodollar holds 103.50s support, we look for a break through this Pivotal 104.48 and then through the Pryocycle Hives 104.80s on to test into our target of 106.20s, which coincides with weekly trendline resistance. From there I'd anticipate at least a corrective move, but we will see how price responds once we get into the target zone. Similarly to the Dollar Index, there is the potential we do a double correction. If we hold this 104.40s as a high, we could test back down into the 101.90s before once again reversing to the upside. At this stage, really take the close back through 101.20s to suggest a more meaningful high as in place. Moving to the UK and in terms of the data slate next week on Monday, we get November nationwide house prices. Housing market correction is clearly deepening in the UK last time out as a negative 0.9% print. And then moving to Thursday, we will get the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final estimate looking 46.2. And that rounds out a pretty light data week in the UK next week. So from a technical perspective, sterling holding up nicely. So we're looking for any pullbacks now into support at just about 119.90, which are bullish reversal patterns there. And we're looking to test our target zone here of 122.12. From there, I'll anticipate a more meaningful correction to develop. So we're watching high price response on that first test of that 122, just above the 122 handle. Certainly if we've got some momentum divergence in play, I'd be looking for a tradable pullback. But for now, the focus whilst we hold this 120, 119.90 area, we look for a test of 122.12. Moving to Japan. In terms of data, pretty light slate as well next week in Japan on Wednesday, October industrial production. Looking for a negative 1.7% print there. Soft export demand from the Eurozone and the US is likely to weigh into year end. Then moving to Thursday, manufacturing PMI final estimate looking for a 49.4 print there. From a technical perspective, the dollar yen is retesting pivotal support here down to the 137.70s. I'm looking for a breakthrough there to test into our target zone, which is a 136 test to see here on the daily timeframe, 135.20 also the high volume mode. Then that should complete this initial five wave sequence from the highs and from there, I'll be watching again for bullish reversal patterns for at least a corrected move to develop in the dollar yen. At this stage, we'll really take a close back through 142.30 to suggest a more meaningful loads in place. And moving down under to Australia. In terms of the data next week, Monday, we will hear from RBA Governor Loeb. He's appearing before the Senate Economics Committee. And then on Wednesday, October dwelling approvals looking for a potential negative 5% print there have been surprisingly steady though Q3 but still set to fall as we head into Q4. We'll also get monthly CPI 7.6% expected there. CPI trend mean percent year over year looking for something in the 5.4% region. The monthly indicator is a reliable leading indicator for the quarterly CPI is yet to show signs of peaking and terms of other data on Wednesday construction work done looking for 2% print there only a partial rebound constrained by ongoing headwinds in the sector and then heading to Thursday Core Logic Home Value Index looking for a negative 1% print there price decline still look firmly entrenched in Australia. We'll also get Q3 private new capital expenditure. We'll give her 1.6% print there up a trending equipment should see a partial rebound there. And then we will get the CAPEX plans estimated 154 billion would be consistent with what we have seen in prior prints and then running out the week in Australia housing finance on Friday looking for a negative 3.5% print there owner occupy finance looking for a negative 4.5% print and October investor finance looking for a negative 2% stabilizing turnover suggests a slower pace of decline for finance associated with purchase or established dwellings but construction related looks to be down sharply and we will also hear once again from our being a governor low on Friday taking part in a panel participant Bank of Thailand conference so from a technical perspective the Aussie dollar holding up nicely so we're looking for support here to be maintained at the 67 handle as it is and then look for an upside extension into our target zone 6850 to 6890 and then again from there I anticipate a potential for a more meaningful correction so we watch for bearish momentum divergence to start to develop and then we'll be looking for a three way corrected pullback at least to test into the 6580s before once again looking to reestablish upside momentum and rounding out this week's outlook let's just check in with Bitcoin and see where we are in terms of the weekend risk barometer holding up just really rotating around this 16500 level as it does so and continues to find support above the 16000 level I'm looking for it to grind out an upside extension into the 18000 level as the next upside objective obviously any loss of the lows at 15400 bearish development and we're still looking for that 12185 equality objective to the downside and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 28th of November as always trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much