 Good afternoon and welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 2nd of April and this Good Friday 2021. Thanks for turning up for those of you who haven't got anything better to do, unlike myself, to cover this payrolls report for March and it's an eagerly anticipated one. Certainly I think that it's going to be a significant market mover, whether or not it's a market mover today or next week obviously is a moot point. Nonetheless I think expectations for this payrolls report are so high that I think anything less than a fairly decent number could well see a little bit of dollar weakness given the run-up that we've seen over the course of the past few days and it's a bit of a strange report simply on the basis that it's on a market holiday so any market reaction is probably going to be slightly more marked than is normal given the thin liquidity conditions and the fact that I would imagine US markets will probably close earlier than they normally do on a Friday so this payrolls report comes with an enormous risk warning in that it's obviously a bank holiday and we're also heading into a weekend and there's also a bank holiday in Europe on Monday as well so while I don't think the report will change the overall direction or the bullish nature of equity markets it could have a significant effect in the short to medium term over the course of the past two days we've already seen some significant weakness in the dollar from the from the highs that we saw earlier this week here a dollar had a little bit of a peak below 117 CMC dollar index which we've got here topped out in and around this series of peaks here around about 972 just short 200 day moving average more importantly the dollar index the US dollar index is also shown a little bit of short term weakness as well if we look at this Bloomberg chart here on this candle on this candle chart where we've had a little bit of a doji here and then we've had a very strong down candle here now the moment we're round about the lows of the last two or three days and certainly I think the resistance level on Euro dollar I would put probably at slightly higher levels than where we currently are at the moment if we look at say for example 117 80 area on this chart here and I'll blow it up for you we can see that we've seen a fairly decent reversal of these lows here we've come back above 117 50 which for me was a key level on the way on the move down we haven't been able to sustain that down move which makes me a little bit cautious about a possibility that we may get a move back to 118 70 in the short to medium terms of the big question is what's going to cause that certainly I think in terms of US 10 year yields and what we saw yesterday we did see a significant weakening in the US 10 year treasury yield obviously the highs from earlier this week on the Monday at 177 40 since then we've come back a little bit if I make that's a year to date we can see that's a very strong downward thrust there which would appear to suggest that for all the talk of two fiscal stimulus packages this year one in one in one in January one ended on the one end of December paid in January and obviously the 1.9 trillion dollar one that was signed off in the middle of March and then we're also talking about an infrastructure stimulus plan of around about two trillion dollars as well now of that plan I think there's been an awful lot of what I would call bullishness around that infrastructure plan but for me I think the political imperative to get that across through Congress is likely to be a very very arduous affair so even while the prospect of a two trillion dollar stimulus a fiscal infrastructure stimulus sounds good on paper I think practicalities of it could take a while to deliver so I think for me it's really about does today's payrolls number meet the expectations that have been set to it and I've heard a whole host of various estimates of what today's payrolls number could be if we look at the data that we've seen thus far this week it's certainly been very very positive I don't think I don't think we can really I don't think we can really dispute that if you want to read about my preview of the payrolls number it's actually on the inside section right here I've also posted a copy of it on the website so if you want to basically have a quick read through that basically all I'm going to be talking about in the lead-up to these payrolls numbers is what I've outlined in that preview that I posted out or sent out around about 1045 this morning ultimately the consensus the range of consensus estimates of payrolls is as low as 250 and as high as 900,000 so that's quite a quite a big range I mean basically if that was a price you could drive a bus through it certainly I think expectations are high given where the US economy is right now but also what the expectations are going forward let's face it we've got a 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus checks probably hit the mats of American households around about two weeks ago we've seen consumer confidence in the US jumped to 109.7 and this week's manufacturing ISM reports were very very positive with a headline number which came in at its best level since 1983 where the prices paid component was 85.6 and where the employment component came in at a three year high so certainly going to see a positive jobs number it's really just a question of how big and whether or not it's priced in so I would argue that even if we get a good number today we will still need to see good numbers in April good numbers in May and good numbers in June because we still remain around about 9 million jobs light from where we were in February last year when the unemployment rate was around about three and a half cent so what are my expectations well as I say I've outlined them the the general consensus is 660,000 on top of the 379,000 that we got in February and the upgraded 166,000 that we saw in January more importantly we're expecting the unemployment rate to fall from 6.2 to 6% now if you want to have a look at what the consensus expectations are they're in the market calendar which is in the drop-down menu from the news and analysis section there and we can see we can see that quite clearly outlined here these are the numbers in question for today right at the bottom now average earnings average earnings I would expect that to come down why because if we see a big jump in the payrolls report to to say six 700,000 large part of those jobs are probably going to be at the lower end of the pay scale so that will then bring the average earnings number down from last month's 5.3% to 4.5 so if the average earnings figure comes down it generally means that an awful lot of the jobs that are coming back are generally at the lower end of the pay scale that's not a bad thing most of the hits to the employment market the labour market happened at the lower end of the pay scale so we want that number to come down we want it to come down quite substantially in terms of non-farm payrolls 647 from 379 watch for a revision to the February number as well there was an awful lot of cold weather which may have affected the February number so that could actually see an upward revision and actually the headline number could actually be lower so you sort of have to there is there is also a little bit of weather related effects in those numbers as well and we do need to be prepared for that overall work week hours 34.7 hoping for that to go up generally as a result of the labour market generally tends to mean that people are working more and as the as the economy continues to reopen and obviously the unemployment rate expected to come down from 6.2% to 6% but what I want to see with respect to that is for the unemployment rate to come down and the participation rate to go up a year ago the participation rate was 63.4% it's now sitting at 61.4% because an awful lot of people dropped out of the labour force and aren't claiming for unemployment benefits so they're not counted in the unemployment rate numbers so hopefully that gives you an idea of what we are expecting vis-à-vis the numbers and hopefully that will then give us some indication of what might happen in the event of a shortfall personally I think looking at the way the S&P is trading at the moment on the futures we closed yesterday at 40.20 we're already trading 13 points higher on the basis of expectations and to be quite honest now that we're above 4,000 I certainly think we can continue to go higher so it remains very much a case of where equity markets are concerned by the dip we haven't changed that narrative that narrative has been pretty much the same for the last 12 years albeit a little bit of a few terrifying sell-offs like we saw all the way back in February last year bottomed out in March I mean that's a big move there and look we're well above it I just wish we were well above it on the FTSE 100 as well I'm still bullish on the FTSE 100 I still think we'll see 7,000 this year I think when you look at the UK and you look at the US they're pretty much leading the recovery in terms of the G7 Europe remains very much a concern going forward though that doesn't appear to be stopping the DAX at the moment and something happened yesterday I think in terms of the overall bullish narrative when it comes to US stocks and I still think US stocks are probably a little bit pricey and that's me being polite for me it's not really about what I feel in terms of how expensive or how cheap valuations are the fact that NASDAQ is now back above the 50-day moving average for me generally tends to suggest that we'll probably go and have another go at the highs that we saw in February purely on the basis of technicals I am very very much driven by technicals I think it's an easy way for me to declutter my mind when it comes to trying to make sense of what markets are doing because I think one of the things that we as traders and my background is in FX I used to trade currencies sometimes you need to declutter all of the information that's coming into your head because it's pulling you in all different directions and I think that for me is the most important thing more than anything as a trader you need to declutter your mind and just focus on what is important to you and what's important to me is the technicals what's the price doing where's the flow going is there more sellers than buyers is there more buyers than sellers so I think that for me more than anything else is the why I maintain where I maintain the discipline when I was trading spot FX I used to trade dollar yen and and a bit and then and a bit of cable and dollar mark and that gives you an indication of how long ago that was but nonetheless those skills never leave you whatever market you trade if you have a good sound technical base to work off and good risk management skills then generally you should if you're disciplined enough and discipline and risk management is at the cornerstone of everything should come out ahead so in terms of market reaction to what we can expect one of the things I have noticed is dollar yen dollar yen is the yen's weakened equity markets have gone very very well bid and certainly in terms of a proxy for risk dollar yen is as good as any if you risk off the end strengthens and the dollar dollar goes down if risk is on and the dollar goes up and the yen weakens and the yen is weakened a lot but there is a risk I think at the moment that even though I still expect dollar yen to go a little bit higher to around about 111 70 and all the way back to this series of highs through here we could be near the top in the short term and in the bottom term and we also have to basically bear in mind what US yields are doing if you had if US yields soften then gold should go up if US yields go up gold will go down it's a bit of a seesaw effect on gold and you can certainly see that born out by the way that US bond yields have gone from 0.9% at the beginning of the year to levels of where they are now so let's go let's get ready for the numbers because they're coming out shortly as I say just a quick recap and let's look at the dollar reaction of any particular move in relation to the numbers but as I say expectations are set very very high some houses are setting or expecting a number in the region of eight or nine hundred thousand so if it comes in short obviously what will happen is we'll just revise that out into April or May it doesn't change the overall direction of travel when it comes to the US jobs market it's about what's currently priced in and at the moment I think there's an awful lot of optimism priced in and as such we might see a little bit of softening in US yields in the aftermath of the numbers as they hit the tape so as I say we've got just under a minute to go and until the numbers in the aftermath of the numbers obviously if you want to ask me any questions please feel free to do so I will try and answer them to the best of my ability unfortunately the only markets that are open are the US 30 the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the small caps as I said you know in my previous summary it remains very much a case of by the dips and as I say a weaker number could actually see the dollar soften a little bit along with yields but in the meantime I will I will get ready I will get ready and stay quiet because in around about 15 seconds the numbers will hit the tape and I will try and make sense of them as best I can as I say keep an eye out for revisions as well because they could actually be particularly important when it comes to numbers anyway I'm miking off now and I'll be back in about 15 20 seconds well that's a bit of a number isn't it 916,000 in non-farm payrolls the unemployment the average earnings numbers come down quite significantly as well which is good revised upwards before 68 I mean there's nothing not to like about that particular number it's pretty much beaten expectations across the board with a revision is even better and the unemployment rate has fallen to 6% I mean that is broadly extremely positive and you would have expected the dollar to have to have strengthened quite strongly on the back of that so those high expectations were very well justified on the basis of the narrative that we've seen thus far this week and really does bode well I think in terms of where we can expect the markets to pick up early next week strangely enough I'm just looking at the 10 year yield at the moment it's just ticking up a little bit it's one basis point higher and about 16807 but it's not really racing away and that would suggest to me that by and large it's yes this is a good number and some of the numbers being banded about were very very good but nonetheless I think that's generally a dollar positive number and it's also a very positive number for equity markets in general and you're certainly seeing that on the basis of the S&P 500 is nothing not to like about that it's very positive for risk very positive for yields even though we're not really seeing much of an effect on the yield but we're certainly seeing a significant effect in the US dollar as a whole does anyone have any questions on any of the numbers because I think I pretty much summarized how how decent those numbers are I don't think there's really too much else to say if anyone wants me to talk about any of the other markets that I haven't currently covered but by and large very positive number and bodes well also for next week's ISM services report the ISM non-manufacturing number easy for me to say or not to say what have you yeah the ISM non-manufacturing number because that would suggest to me that an awful lot of those jobs that have been added back are in the in the services sector pretty much that's borne out by the drop that we saw in the average earnings numbers from four point from five point two to four point two or one percentage point drop so without actually reading the report myself I can't really do that while I'm watching the markets I would argue that essentially we're probably going to see euro dollar drift back down around about 117 3040 cable potentially drift back down to around about 138 137 90 but overall very very positive number but it begs the question of how much has already been priced in and the way that trading is going at the moment I think it's unlikely we're going to see much in the way of FX moves but we're certainly seeing big moves in equity markets if we look at the S&P we like that an awful lot if I change that to a very short-term chart that basically tells you really all you need to know on that particular one and for those of you of certain age you remember yes the only way is up by the looks of it in terms of where we go to over the course of the next few days and weeks questions ladies and gents I'm here to talk about questions and what have you if you if you don't have any that's great but right do I think the Fed could potentially raise rates if the strength in the numbers continues in the next few months yeah I mean that is a really really good question and it certainly something that could start to get priced in at the moment the way that equity markets are reacting I think they're pretty sanguine about that I think if we want to see early signs of the market starting to price in a rate hike we we shouldn't be looking at the 10-year because I still think that the 10-year can go towards 1.8% and potentially 2% it's going to be what the two-year does so at the moment interest rate expectations are very well anchored at the short end of the curve the danger for the Fed will be and I'll show you here what I'm looking at this is a two-year yield chart on the US to you on the US to you if we start to break up above 0.18 or 0.2% on the two-year that could just be the worry that triggers a potential move in terms of a Fed rate hike before 2024 it's also important in terms of the narrative around a Fed rate hike because of comments that Raphael Bostic has made they may not like rates they may pair back their bond buying program there are other ways to tighten apart from raising rates they can basically cut cut down the number of bonds that get by so I think the narrative really is if interest rate expectations in the short end start to get to move higher that will worry the Fed now next week's minutes could give an indication of the type of discussion that's going on or has been going on with respect to some of the more hawkish members of the committee and obviously the doves like Powell Brainerd and Clarida so I'll be interested to find out what the dynamic is when it comes to inflation risks at the moment inflation risks appear to be well-anchored having said that if you look at the prices paid data in some of the ISM reports that does suggest that there is inflationary pressure there but that could just be simply a case of supply supply chain constraints and not actually underlying inflation so it's important to differentiate the two but certainly that is a risk absolutely that the Fed could start to get a little bit and see and think about raising rates in 2023 I think we'd need to see three or four months of nine hundred thousand over the summer before we start to have that conversation but you're dead right in terms of what the Fed might start or markets might start to price in in terms of rate you know the Fed looking to raise rates so that's a great question Winston and it's certainly something that we really do need to think about particularly if the data continues to come in as well as it has and certainly I think three or four months of nine hundred thousand or even a million will start to get market expectations market starting to price in so that'll mean that power power will need to be very adept at walking that tightrope I myself don't think that the Fed will be able to stay on hold until 2023 I think it's unrealistic for the Fed to even keep rates that low for that long but you know say they say a week is a long time in politics a week is an eternity in markets so things can change very very quickly but while this chart here remains stuck below 0.2% then I think the markets will be happy and equity markets will continue to go higher if we start to break higher different ball game entirely so watch the two-year I think that's going to be the key I think that's going to be the key arbiter of where we go to next right next question I'll come to copper in a minute mark I'm getting asked about gold gold for me is very much at the moment it's a little bit of a salon rally at the moment the gold market is not open we've seen a little bit of a rebound in the past couple of days it appears to have found a little bit of a base here but I think certainly if you're looking at gold prices and you're looking at US 10 year yields there has been a little bit of a seesaw relationship between the two so higher us yields lower gold that's been that's been pretty much it this is where us yields when us yields were at 0.9% in January gold was up here they're at 1.77% now and gold is down here so for me look at what 10 year yields are doing Graham in terms of gold because if they continue to move higher gold will find it very very difficult to rally at the moment we found a bit of a base around about 1670 if that continues to hold then we could well head back towards 1760 but at the moment we're in a little bit of a range if we break through 1.8% on the 10 year yield US 10 year yield then gold will probably take out these lows down here and head back to around about these sorts of levels here so think about the relationship between gold and treasury yields because essentially why would you buy gold if you can stick your money in a 10 year US Treasury and get 1.8 or 2% all you then worried about is obviously the depreciation of that particular asset so that's that's gold I'm being asked about copper copper very much is a supply and demand story so if you think that copper prices are going to continue to go up then you your your your thought process is that the global economy is going to continue to recover but what we've also got bear in mind with copper is that if we go back to March last year it's pretty much gone one way and even though the S&P has continued to move higher copper hasn't which suggests to me that maybe we're having a little bit of a pause but for the time being I think as long as we're above this 390 area here for copper then we should move back to 420 and move higher at the moment I think an awful lot of the reason why copper slowed down was because it got way ahead of its skis in terms of market expectations we're getting a little bit of a sideways consolidation here while above 390 then I think copper prices will continue to move higher so that's what I think with respect to copper I've got gold and silver again similar sort of thing with respect to what I was telling Graham Thomas okay China a 50 why did it go so low and what's your view now cool dear don't ask me some easy questions Alan and the China a 50 I mean that's that's a tough what Chinese markets are basically a law unto themselves and I have to say that it's not something that I would probably feel comfortable answering I would much rather look at say the Hang Seng which is a proxy more of a proxy for China than say for example the a 50 years but certainly in the context of what we've seen over the course of the past few days and weeks we remain very much in an uptrend on the 50 the Hong the Hang Seng and I think it while we're above this series of peaks through here we've rebounded off there and we're 200 day moving average there's no evidence at the moment that the Hang Seng can't continue to recover the a 50 is not something that I would really want to touch with a barge pole or even offer an opinion on sorry about Alan was there anything else you'd like me to talk about ladies and gents if not then I'd like to wish you all a happy Easter I hope I hope you the hope you are enjoying your Easter eggs or get to enjoy your Easter eggs Easter eggs in Japan okay now they're all coming out the woodwork okay let me just get rid of the S&P let me just reset that graph there we go silver right okay let's get shot of this again we've seen a little bit of a reversal in silver in the same way that we have with gold held above just just if around it's just about held 24 dollars yeah we did trade down to 2380 but overall I think obviously the dollar the strength of the dollar is going to have a little bit of a drag on it but overall given where we are at the moment we're very much in a downtrend the current rebound is probably going to find a little bit of selling pressure between around about 26 dollars and in the same way that with with copper I think we're in a range with silver albeit with a slightly downward bias so with silver I'm very much in case to sell the rally in the same way that I am pretty much with gold if we do get a softening in US yields you also got to take into account the fact that silver is more of an industrial metal than it is that then gold so there is a little bit of supply and demand dynamics going on at the moment but the fact that we haven't been able to sustain that move below the 200 day moving average would appear to suggest that if you look at the way silver trades you know we've been in a range between 20 and 30 dollars for the past 12 months and that's likely to continue I think going forward natural gas right sorry someone's just asked me a series of questions that I've lost the top one okay Japan right and gas right guess okay guess Nikkei 225 where are we well nothing not to like there Nikkei 225 it's gonna be pretty much like everything else get rid of that and let's do a little bit of updated analysis on this right 30,000 so this is where we were just above 30,000 at the moment keep an eye on that peak there in March which is around about 30,500 overall I'm as bullish on the Nikkei as I am on the DAX as I was on the S&P and pretty much everything else you know if you'll bullish one equity market generally that tends to basically translate across to everyone else but certainly in the context of this move here if we break above this triangular consolidation here then we'll probably take out the previous highs and head higher we're still well short of the record highs in the Nikkei there at 40,000 in 1989 I certainly don't think we'll get there yet but I am certainly fairly bullish on further gains on the Nikkei and obviously the Nikkei liked that payrolls report as well because Nikkei futures are well up and looking to retest the previous highs from March natural gas there it is again natural gas is closed today but the thing with natural gas is it tends to be very seasonal and in the summer demand tends to drop off you're drawing in that line there and it has broken below it but it's more importantly it's held above the 200 day moving average so I think for me this line is not particularly useful so I'm not going to use it what I am going to use is this level here so you're looking at around about 268 as a bit of a short-term resistance now why have I done that because it happens to coincide with that low there and these peaks around about here so and obviously that peak there so sometimes you'll find that if you drill down into a piece of price action let's say for example let's do this for four hours it can actually tell you a much better story because you can see that there are series of lows through here and here and through here as well so between 270 and 270 and 280 there is what I would call an area of support and resistance that's likely to cap any gains and that's why sometimes looking at a daily chart is useful in terms of a long-term reference frame but when you drill down into the intraday stuff that can actually tell you so much more and certainly in the context of what I'm seeing here is in terms of natural gas there's a natural resistance anywhere above 268 to 272 and as such that could mean that we'll drift back down towards around about 250 and 260 so very much a range trade at the moment with respect to natural gas so you could see it drift back all the way back to 220 or 230 as demand starts to taper off that's certainly a very realistic point of view to have simply on the basis of seasonal factors and when demand drops off but overall at the moment what we've seen is a bit of a resistance here if that holds then we could come back down to around about these lows through here okay so hang on a second I'm working my way down ladies and gents so I'm really trying to I wouldn't be basically when you talk when you think about shorting a market that's going up the only reason you should be shorting a market that's going up is if you're already long for me the trend is your friend so if the S&P is going up I'm not trying to pick the top never try and pick the top in a rising market same goes for NASDAQ and pretty much anything else if a market is in an uptrend you should be looking to buy the dips on a market so you need to be selling you need to be buying into weakness and once you're long then selling into that strength to take a profit selling into an uptrend is a very dangerous thing to do because how do you know where the top is yeah the the S&P at the moment is around about record highs but that doesn't mean that it can't go to 40 50 40 100 and bear in mind that the markets probably going to be closing early today and you don't want to be stuck with a short position over the weekend because anything can happen over a weekend and it's not something that I like to do and I've been doing this for 30 years I will only run a position over a weekend as a last resort or if it's a very very long-term trade in terms of a short-term trade I won't do it because the risk reward isn't there so in terms of shorting a market only you know only shorter market if it's in a downtrend and equity markets aren't you know you need to sell into strength in a down move in a down moving market or buy into weakness in an uptrend it's about it's about mindset you know if I tried to pick the top in this bull market over the course of the past 12 years and there was a time when I did think oh God it's come too far it's got to come off from here and I've sold into it and it's carried on going you know there is no way of predicting where the top is so if I'm looking to trade the S&P 500 or any other market for that matter and I'm looking to trade it I'm looking for a pullback to 4,000 or these sorts of levels through here for a move higher so any weakness towards 4,000 to 3980 look to buy it for a move back to 44 40 50 40 60 same thing with respect to the Nasdaq looks a little like a drunk trying to find its way home over the last 10 minutes well it is quite thin and that's what happens in very thin in liquid markets so what level on the 10 year might trigger a sell-off in the rates sensitive Nasdaq I'd suggest it probably need to go through 1.8% on the 10 year at the moment we're in a little bit of what I would call a goalie lock scenario when it comes to US markets they're juiced up on the back of 1.9 trillion dollars of fiscal stimulus from last month and also the fact that we're going to get some infrastructure stimulus coming down the pipe over the course of the next few days as well so you've got all of that and bond yields at the moment around trading just below 1.8% getting asked tax late for the rally blah blah blah anything I'll be asked about the Dow Jones Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq you could throw a blanket over them now the Nasdaq has lagged behind a little bit but what we've seen here now there are above the 50 day moving average and we're above these series of peaks here means that it's quite likely that we'll probably see a move back to the highs all the way back now the Nasdaq is vulnerable I will agree with you on that point and I will agree with you on the basis that big tech is going to be in the firing line for a number of politicians on Capitol Hill but they're already talking about raising the tax rate from 21% to 28% which you would think would be negative for the likes of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Twitter and all of those people who would have to pay a higher rate of tax but they were paying an even higher rate of tax when Trump was made president and were paying 35% it's kind of 21% and Biden wants to raise it to 28% so still seven basis points lower from where it was five years ago so it's all relative and yes more regulation might start to hit the business models of certain big cap tech stocks but overall if I allow myself to think in those terms I'm allowing the fundamentals to cloud what the technicals are telling me and then I start to become hesitant and don't make sensible decisions so for me it's about what the price action is doing so in terms of the US 30 it's pretty much the same as the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 or the Dow higher lows higher highs uptrend by the dip if you're getting lower highs lower lows downtrend sell the rally and basically draw a line through the draw a line through the lows in an uptrend quite simply like this helps if I can actually draw them correctly I need a cup of coffee there we go so in terms of the the Dow we found that it's found support three days in a row all the way through 32,990 so 33,000 give or take which means if we do dip back to 33,000 we'll probably find some buyers it will rebound and it will go higher I make it sound that simple because ultimately in terms of risk management it is that simple you find an area of support that you're comfortable with in this case it'll be 33,000 you put your stop loss below these lows not too close mind but low but far enough away that you don't get knocked out on a spike lower so buy at 33,000 with a stop loss below these lows here from move up to 33,200 400 or what have you you know that's essentially what you're looking for you're looking for series or areas of support or resistance to buy into so in terms of the Dow Jones it's very much a case of buy the dips we could see some of this rally over the course of the past hour or so gets shaken out next week but overall those numbers speak to me to prospect for higher stock market so Dow Jones uptrend S&P uptrend DAX uptrend you know stop trying to pick the tops in these markets they're not you know they're in an uptrend you should be looking to buy the dip with you know a fairly you know a fairly decent stop on them because otherwise you're trying to sell if you're trying to pick the top you're essentially trading against the trend and as I say unless you're long that's generally not a particularly wise thing to do because where do you put your stop loss in an uptrend where a market is trading at record highs you've got no frame of reference because you're trading in uncharted territory so you don't know where to put your stop if you're trading a market from the long side you know where the previous lows are so you put your stop loss below the previous lows does that make sense well I hope it does anyway so FTSE 100 I'm going to talk about that well here again uptrend what's frustrating about this particularly with respect to the FTSE is that it's not going it's not getting through 6800 I still think it will in fact I'm convinced it will I think we will retest January highs here and head back towards 7000 but we've got a hold above the 50 day moving average and this trend line support from these lows back in February but what's happening here is indicative of a market that wants to go higher because the lows are getting higher and once they stop getting higher that's when you start to be a little bit cautious but if we can take out 6800 and hopefully that will happen next week then we could well see a revisit of 6900 and the highs that we saw earlier this year I tend to look at my analysis very much from a long-term standpoint so I take the sort of medium to long-term trend and basically take my analysis from that I think you can trade way too short term if you go to short term and you trade a lot you run the risk of picking a load of losers just as much as you do a load of winners so it's about managing that risk you'd have to basically trade in a manner that's comfortable for you one of the mistakes I made when I was very young junior trader was I tried to copy people that were successful and sometimes in doing that I went against my own gut instinct and actually my own gut instinct was actually right but I didn't have the confidence to think that at the time but once you generate that confidence that would generally flow all by itself so I think for me it's about developing a style that you're comfortable with finding a market that you like to trade and then basically just just persevering with it and you will lose money on occasion everybody does the trick is and it's an important one is that you keep your losses small and your profits big and I know it sounds like a bit of a cliche but that is that's that's pretty much it and answer your question I am recording this and I will be putting it up on YouTube within the next couple of hours so you can actually look at it on a later date at the CMC markets YouTube channel which is youtube.com forward slash CMC markets plc anyway that's it ladies and gentlemen I'm going to go and eat some Easter eggs and I'm hoping that you are too so I will wish you all a very happy Easter and I look forward to speaking to you all same time same place in a month's time when we cover the non-farm payrolls numbers yet again thanks very much for listening and have a happy Easter