 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Pretty fun is sports weekends across a lot of different sports Of course the NFL combine a lot of running going on to this weekend We have got the F1 season opener on Saturday morning qualifying later today We've got three NASCAR races in Las Vegas, which we'll discuss later on and of course EPL match week 27 we're gonna break down that today with Austin Picking his brain on his favorite bets of Fandall sportsbook and then I'll talk NASCAR cup Exfinity and trucks later on this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joining to kick things off by Austin Cass check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin welcome on into the show How you doing today? Doing really well. How are you doing Jim? I am doing delightful. I'm excited for this weekend I'm excited to get started with the truck race for tonight I'm gonna pop off this discussion with you and hop right into qualifying in Bahrain, which should be a lot of fun. So honestly It doesn't get a lot better than this weekend. I know that that's like hyperbolic If there's nothing like no huge tentpole events, but like I'm pretty jazzed personally Yeah, yeah, I I really like this time of year and Yeah, no, no NFL That's probably like there's something in the fell but I guess the combine is that but yeah, I don't I don't get super into it But yeah, yeah, I do enjoy the the combine I'm also spending the rest of today after this call outside of watching F1 qualifying building out my NFL wind total model like putting in like the priors and stuff like that So it's a it's a nerd day and I I love nerd days. So I'm very excited for that We're gonna talk about the EP out of Austin here to kick things off Then I'll dive in to some NASCAR later on but first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you Get your podcast We did talk some combine with Eric Froton of NBC Sports on Wednesday got his read on some Players he expects to run well We discussed receivers with him a lot and the receivers have not run yet So that discussion is still valid to check out that discussion with Eric Froton on the covering the spread podcast feed Apple podcast Spotify, whatever you wherever you get your podcast you can find us there If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating and do hit that subscribe button You can also find the show on the Fandal YouTube page and Fandal TV plus Alrighty Austin, let's kick things off by diving into EPL for this weekend And that does include what is traditionally a pretty fun match between man city and man United I know this year. It's not maybe the most competitive match given that it does seem like Man City is back in form, but let's talk about this match any value for you for man city versus man United this weekend Yeah, so as you alluded to all science point to city rolling their minus 400 to win minus 113 to go over two and a half goals So not much there's not much that appeals to me on a team-wide level But I do like a player prop and that's Bernardo Silva to score or assist at plus 125 Silva plays a little all over the place for city But he's a fairly safe bet to start because Jack Grealish came off injured midweek for them Other than the high likelihood that city are going to create a lot of chances in this game Will put to me on Silva is his crossing ability Which is something man City might need to rely on if Many United sit back and play very defensively and I think that's probably what they're going to do When these teams fight earlier this year at old Trafford United had only 39% of the possession So we could see City have what close to 70% of the ball here in this match And really pinned back United for long stretches So if City need to break through a low block block of defenders, they might turn to Bernardo's crossing ability He leads City Sorry, I'm he's second on the team this year and crosses into the box and he's third on the team and passes into the penalty area So he plays in an attacking position for a team as good as City He always has a threat to score himself as well So he's done that six times this year. So in general, that's probably the angle I'm gonna take to get access to this game because the team line stuff isn't very appealing to me So yeah, I like Bernardo Silva plus 125 to score assist now You mentioned the stats on Silva and the numbers there How much is that impacted by the fact that they're now healthier because obviously when I think about like how Think about it from like an NBA perspective where LeBron James comes back and everyone else kind of takes a secondary seat City's got a lot of key pieces back recently Does that downplay the stats for Silva or his is his role one that actually might be amplified because there are now better finishers on the opposing side of those crosses So it kind of goes both ways. I would compare it to Like a receiver who's maybe like a second or third option and the number one guy is out So the number one guy coming back which is Kevin de Bruyne and he's their number one playmaker Like that's that can be a negative But it's also positive because they're probably just going to create more chances or sounds on that football number So Holland coming back doesn't really it's definitely a positive He's going to be crossing to probably the best goal scorer in the world right now But de Bruyne is their chief playmaker and takes a lot of corners was probably It's going to remove Bernardo from that and then he set piece work But in general de Bruyne is such a good playmaker that he can set up Bernardo in good spots and then Bernardo is going to be passing to the best striker in the world right now Yeah, so he benefits from their health as opposed to like maybe it's the ball a bit less But like the overall offensive environment is much better with those guys being healthy Yeah, that's what I would agree if it was just de Bruyne back and not Holland And I would say it's a negative but sure with both of them coming back I would say it's a net positive and this is a score or assist market So if he's on the opposing, you know, if he's if he's if he gets the assist you get the money regardless So Bernardo Silva plus 125 for Man City versus Man United to score or assist is what Austin likes there nine other matches across Saturday through Monday Austin's looking at those other nine matches where else is seeing value starting off with the traditional markets this weekend yeah, so I think it's a really fun weekend with a lot of unique matchups and An element that's going to be at play in several of these matchups is rest differential Some of these teams played midweek in the FA Cup and some of them did not so One way I'm looking to take advantage of that is with Tottenham against Crystal Palace on Saturday I like Tottenham over two and a half goals, which is plus 158 and then I also like Tottenham's first half money line Which is minus 110 I like those as like separate bets not a parlay Tottenham have a big rest advantage They haven't played since March 17th Palace played last weekend March 24th That's a really big deal especially for a Tottenham side That's usually a high pressing high energy team the rest element plays into my first half recommendation because I think They're gonna come out 100 miles an hour Also, both teams had very different results last time out Palace got a big 30 win over Burnley, which hurt us from my recommendation for last week But that was a victory that for the most part eases most of their concerns about getting dragged into a relegation fight They should be safe might be primed to let their foot off the gas a little bit Tottenham meanwhile lost at home to Wolves in their last game Their backs are really against the wall in their fight to make the top four So they're gonna be super motivated this game. They haven't played for two weeks They have a brutal stretch Tottenham does coming up after this schedule wise So they really can't afford to get other anything other than a win in this match And then the last thing is Palace just really isn't very good They've led in a lot of goals in their recent matches against teams in the top half of the table They've conceded 15 times across their past four matches in the split So in my eyes everything is coming up Tottenham And I'm back in a fully rested spur side to win this first half and then to go over two and a half goals The first half money line for Tottenham is minus one ten over two and a half goals plus 158 right now for Tottenham versus Crystal Palace And looking back at that Burnley match It sounds like that might have been a bit of a misleading results You messaged me saying Burnley got a red card right away Is that enough of a factor where it would swing things potentially leading to a Not necessarily ideal result for them Yeah, for sure, I think Burnley wasn't playing real well before the red card, but That's it's just something that we don't really have in other sports Where maybe like a quarterback getting injured or in the football game where it just one thing happens And it totally changes the whole rest of the game Like if the guy goes the penalty box and hockey, but he has to spend the entire rest of the game there Yeah, yeah, exactly So yeah, it's just such like a weird thing that can happen and as soon as that happened Obviously the odds flip and just change everything for the rest of that game. So yeah It was a bummer obviously for our bet because we were on Burnley and as soon as that happened I knew they've got 70 minutes of right suffering here probably so right, you know All right, so we're looking for a bounce back and betting against Crystal Palace as we can the Tottenham First half money line minus 110 over two and a half goals plus 158. What about other matches anything else standing out to you there Austin? Yes, so I also like Everton's money line their home match against West Ham on Saturday So I Picked against West Ham last week and it didn't work out They won four two on Monday night against Brentford and they played well and they deserved to win But looking at their recent track record over the past like two months that match was definitely an outlier on the year They're just 16th and expected goal differential according to FB refs XG model They're very fortunate to be eighth in the table. They've lost the XG battle in for their last five road matches including 2.8 to 0.5 in their last away game, which was against Nottingham Forest with action or I'm sorry So yeah, I'm kind of betting on them kind of regressing to the mean a little bit but Everton on the other hand are the total opposite of West Ham They're 15th in the table, but 7th by XG differential They haven't won a league match since December 16th, which obviously isn't what you want to hear when you're betting on some of the win But they've been pretty solid at home with the cumulative XG score of 5.7 to 2.9 over their last three home matches And two of those games were against Austin Villa and Tottenham a pair of sides that are fighting for a spot in the top four and then going back to the rest Advantage because West Ham played on Monday night Everton played last Saturday. So they have a two-day rest advantage here and Just in general, I think Everton are due for some positive regression West Ham just played their best game in like two months So I think Everton have deserved to win based on some of their recent performances And I think they're gonna get it on Saturday against West Ham. So easier schedule for Everton rest advantage Underlying data for West Ham, maybe not the most flattering when they go on the road So it sounds like a lot of factors pointing towards Everton here their money line plus 105 for that match against West Ham What about player props anything stand out to you when the player prop department across to this entire weekend? Yeah, I'm gonna go to one more Saturday match Chelsea at Brentford. I Like even Tony to score or assist. It's minus classic. Yeah, I know I love that market so much soccer cash for us Last weekend in that market, which was we got pretty lucky. They Arsenal dominated and it looked like he actually wasn't gonna get one, but he got one late, but Anyway for this match Tony's gotten a late start to the year due to a suspension, but he hit the ground running He's got four goals already across seven games. It's a continuation of what he did last year Is it minus 135 now plus 135? Oh, that's any way. That's a goal. Sorry. I'm on the wrong Wow Minus 115. Yeah, so Like I said, he's doing really well this year. He did really well last year. He had 20 goals and four assists across 33 starts He's a superb penalty taker one of the best in the league, which definitely doesn't hurt things in this market Brentford are also gonna have the rest advantage starting with last Sunday Chelsea played an EFL cup final that went to extra time and then they played an FA cup match on Wednesday That was a 3-2 dogfight Brentford in that time just had one match It was the match against West Ham that are referenced earlier on Monday. So they're gonna have the rest advantage They're gonna be at home They also are flirting a little bit with getting to getting into a relegation battle So this this match means a lot more to them than it does to Chelsea So I think Tony can take advantage of what's likely gonna be a Chelsea side That's a little fatigued and I like him to score or assist As you mentioned that is minus 115 for Tony to score or assist a seven matches back so far for Tony He has scored in four of those no assists yet. So no additive there, but obviously that's in play as well So the data so far good on Tony. He's a guy. We've liked a lot of times I think on this show across the past couple of years not counting when he was suspended earlier on this year But happy to go back to an old reliable and even on Tony Okay, so Tony the player prop there Everton money line plus 105 Tottenham first half money line minus 110 Tottenham over 2 and a half goals plus 158 Bernardo Silva to score assist plus 125. It's a lot of cooking Austin I like it. It's an exciting weekend, but throw enough darts. I gotta get one, right? That's right I'm feeling good. I'm feeling a good profit for this weekend. That is Austin cast Make sure you check them out on Twitter Austin cast find his work at a fan to a research Austin Thank you for the time as always have a fantastic weekend. We'll talk to you once again soon You too. Thank you, Jim. Alrighty again find Austin on Twitter at Austin cast. That is her match week 27 across the EPL. We're gonna dive into some NASCAR momentary talk about cup Xfinity and trucks in Las Vegas But first get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers Get 150 dollars in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's 150 bucks if your bet wins bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams The quick bets live same-game parlance exclusive props and more just visit the fandall app and shoot your shot Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online Real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt see terms at sportsbook Fandall comm fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler over the fandall comm slash RG Colorado Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania, Illinois Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-887-89 7777 Or the CCP g.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-809 with it in Indiana 1-805-22 4700 of his a chaos gambling health comm in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling help at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler dot net in West, Virginia 1-805-22 4700 in Wyoming hope this year visit gambling help line ma.org or clay 103 to 750 50 for 247 supported Massachusetts or call 1-877 hoping Y or text open Y in New York Let's dig it now to NASCAR in Las Vegas cup Exfinity and truck truck there tonight Sunday tomorrow and cup on sunday bedding guide for me at fandall research one of yesterday And in that bedding guide talked about Tyler reddick To win this race and he was 12 to one at the time As you can see if you're watching on the fandall youtube page or a fandall tv plus That is no longer the case reddick has been bet down to plus 850 and that's enough where reddick is no longer a value for me But as always or typically When one driver lengthens or when one driver shortens another should lengthen to make room For the increase in plot odds of that that driver one of the drivers who lengthened as a result of reddick shortening Is his team owner denny hamlin hamlin lengthened out to 10 to 1 hamlin at one point at fandall Was plus a 50 he's now to 10 to 1 and all of a sudden Hamlin is the best value on the board for me as a result of that lengthy So I like him at 10 to 1 right now. I've got hamlin at 12 percent to win this race. So seeing him at 10 to 1 to me is Pretty sweet. That's 9 implied odds and That 12 percent for me is Without giving a big bump To toyota I just need there for a second That's without giving a huge bump to toyota for their new body So it's a reconfigured car this new offseason for both toyota and ford and you know that could lead some releases and struggles They could struggle to figure this new car out, but it could also make them better They probably would not make this change if they didn't think it make their car better relative to chevy than where it was last year But i'm not accounting for that really much here and hamlin is still a big value for me at this number He won in canzas last year. That is the sister track to los vegas He finished seconds behind reddick and the other canzas race He had average running positions of sixth and seventh in the two los vegas races last year as well I agree with the model here. I think that hamlin is a good value at 10 to 1 And if you had told me jim you can have either reddick at 12 to 1 or hamlin at 10 to 1 I would have taken hamlin at 10 to 1 yesterday. That was not an option at that time, but So I think that hamlin now is the best bet on the board So if you did not get in on reddick at 12 to 1 I do think hamlin is a tremendous consolation prize at 10 to 1 Great number for a great driver in a year. I expect hamlin to have a good year once again So do like hamlin a lot at 10 to 1 to win sunday's cup series race As for obscenity Three guys are values there based on the current odds at fantral sportsbook. Those guys are john hunter neymichek at plus 350 Seeing some movement on the board here right now. Eric almerola just shortened to 12 to 1 Sam mayer is 18 to 1 still a value on almerola despite the fact he is shortened to 12 to 1 So it's still those three guys who are values for me I'm least inclined to take neymichek at plus 350 I kind of want to see what he does in practice and qualifying first because it's a pretty short number my model is above that for sure, but Still kind of want to take his take a wait-and-see approach because a lot of the data on neymichek comes from when he was a Full-time obscenity driver versus now being full time in cup. His focus is devoted there So I'm going to wait and see there, but I do still like almerola and mayer Let's talk about almerola first again shorting to 12 to 1 Right now fantral sportsbook the applied out of the 12 to 1 Are 7.7 percent. I have almerola at 8.9 percent. So again, despite the length the shortening he is still a value for me And you could have gotten almerola 20 to 1 earlier on this week I got him an 18 back on I think Tuesday or Wednesday night So there's been a lot of movement, but it's for a good reason He is driving for joe gibbs racing in extended now same team as neymichek And they were the best team in the series last year on these high speed tracks Almerola is also in his age 40 season typically drivers peak around age 39 person research by david smith who now works for rfk racing So this is a great age for almerola against a lot of guys who are very much younger than him So we've never really seen almerola excel on mile and a half tracks It's what los vegas is but Some of that was due to the equipment that he had in the series This equipment is the best and it can definitely Contend for wins. So I agree the model here. I was honestly shocked how low the market was an almerola 20 to 1 now 12 to 1 I still got value 8.9 percent for me 7.7 percent implied No longer the best bet on the board and extended me for me, but still a good one regardless The best bet would be on sam mayer who is still 18 to 1 and mayer had a breakout year last year Which makes sense because I think it was his age 20 or age 21 season So there's still a very young guy. He's had a lot of experience now in extended despite that young age and finally Seen to put a lot of it together last year I thought his wins on road courses may have been a little bit fluky based on the field strength and stuff like that But he did win homestead last year now that was a playoff race There were no cup series drivers in the field, but It was a pretty impressive showing not a ton of cup series regular was in the field this weekend either And he's still young so you should expect further progress from mayer on a very good team with junior motorsports I have mayer at 7.7 to win his implied odds here are 5.3 percent So I'm going to go with almerola 12 to 1 and mayer 18 to 1 right now And I want to keep an eye on nema check Because I I'm likely to add in later. I just want to see how things settle out in practice and qualifying before I decide to do so Finishing up here in the truck series we get kyle bush once again in the series bush Ran the truck series race last week and shocker. He won again So it's hard to bet against kyle bush. He's minus 110 for this weekend But I do think there is value in doing so here That's because christopher bell is also in the field this weekend driving for tricon and tricon is One of the fastest teams in the truck series and speed does matter a lot at this track And bell is also like kyle bush a great driver He does not have the same track record in the truck series as kyle bush does But it is a very good driver in a very fast truck And as a result I view both these guys pretty similarly honestly at least my model does bush is 32 to win by the model Bell is 31 percent if bell were not in this field Bush would be around 44 percent to win by my number. So the model does like kyle bush a lot It just also loves christopher bell Bush is minus 110 to win bell is six to one. So I am way off market here and typically When you fight the market the market tends to be right because they're very smart people running these models But I think my model directionally at least is right here in being higher on bell Than the plus 600 you can get a fandal sports book It is hard to bet against bush, especially after he beat me in just last weekend But it's a good price and the price dictates whether or not something's of value. So I am going to go with christopher bell six to one so for me in NASCAR this weekend denny hamlin 10 to 1 in cup eric almarola 12 to 1 and sam mayer 18 to 1 in Extinity monitoring at john hunter nema check Throughout practice and qualifying plus 350 now currently a value But I want to see if that does stick and then christopher bell six to one for the truck series going up against kyle bush That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread big Thank you once again to austin cas for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on this weekend's epl action Check out austin on twitter at austin cas and find his work at fan door research I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and Find at fan door research on twitter at fan door research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across this weekend Enjoy what should be a fun sports weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network