 Yeah, thank you very much Daniel and it's great pleasure for me to be part of this Yeah, first virtual Bitcoin conference after last time we had it in our premises at Binalby And I will focus a bit more on a broader Kind of economic sphere where we are with the economy right now in the view of the corona virus And what measures have been taken both from central bankers and fiscal politicians And if this whole thing might work in the short term and in the long term to stabilize the economy or if out of those kind of rescue measures, we might get more problems over time than we had before And going to the more bitcoin specific talks, you all probably know manuel will talk tomorrow He and our research team Is having to help it on on the more specific issues, but we are of course debating The issues on a permanent level We try to be involved in everything what's going on. So but let me start with the current stage of the economy That looks pretty dire. We are just getting several economic indicators Feeding in we had the sentiment indicators, but probably the most dramatic view on what happened with the implication from the virus itself And the lockdowns that were taken in order to prevent the spreading of the virus We have seen an unprecedented fall in employment in the u.s It's more than 20 million for the time being this Friday We probably get even more shocking figures out of this for the time being The amount of jobs lost in the u.s is as large as the number of jobs lost in Spain In terms of the whole labor force there. So it's it's quite a dramatic move there If you look for example to germany the increase in unemployment so far Is pretty limited but there We have quite a significant increase in the number of short shift workers And again here we have unprecedented economic consequences what has just happened In the current environment and what is going on Right now out in the economy. So that what happened was mainly taking place in The second half of march and I think in april and now the question is how do we get out of this again and many participants in the markets Have this kind of the hope that we have a kind of a reshaped recovery looking to china in that respect is just suggesting that things are Going pretty quickly, but we see that in most industrialized countries We do not see this kickstart of the economy To happen anytime soon and I think there are a couple of Criteria that have to be met before we get back to an economic recovery First of all, we have to ease the lockdowns and this is now underway in many Areas but on top of this we have to get back purchasing power Of the private sector and we have to restore The production chains again, and I think all this Has to happen in order to get the economy back working and Of the major things to get back here is that we get support from the fiscal and monetary Authorities and roughly have seen from the fiscal side is again pretty Unprecedented we see massive massive fiscal packages Really heading Among or heading off everyone is Japan who just came up with another fiscal package Last week if you combine all the measures they have you this setup to figure around Almost 40 percent of 2019 GDP in the u.s. We also have seen several fiscal packages That were bundled together It's the total around 20 22 percent of GDP and compared to this the european countries have much smaller packages and This is partly to do with the constraints those countries have on their own fiscal situation and Germany Yeah, given their better fiscal stance before the crisis has more room To come up here with measures Italy and spain they have much less and they come up with this idea of a recovery fund last week And if you add up this Even not at the u.s. Kind of levels, but you get closer to this At least in all of the places including italy to kind of double digit fiscal stimulus This fiscal stimulus, which is likely To stimulate the economy in the second half of this year and probably has prevented further fall in economic activity In the second quarter when the shutdown actually happened This fiscal policy comes with some negative consequences And the negative consequences that we have a massive increase in the deficits of the Government authorities we see that the deficit figures are skyrocketing everywhere And this is gonna jeopardize as well not just the question of the liquidity provision to those institutions, but also the question of fiscal solidity and The example of italy. I know we have a forecast that is much higher than the consensus says at the moment We think that it is quite possible that we get A debt to gdp ratio close to 180 percent and this Actually, the normal times would lead to a massive increase In financing costs of italy And consequence of this would be Probably at some stage debt restructuring And this could lead then to another wave of An economic downturn and causing creating a huge amount of pressure for the public But also the private sector in order now to keep the financing cost Relatively easy the central banks have decided to come up with huge stimulus programs on their own and Here on this chart you can see the developments from before the financial crisis and we have Heard in many talks before what has happened on the financial side We are now going really Any kind of stimulus packages 2.0 and it's much much larger what we see right now Both from the fat and from the ECB compared to that what we have seen after the global financial crisis And this is particularly the case in the US where remember in 2008 We had a couple of weeks going to parliament where we debated About the question of tariff. There would be a 750 billion program Now these days the fat comes up more or less In a kind of a side note to say that they come up with another trillion or so In kind of programs and this is not likely to end any time soon. It's really there For quite a while and that suggests that we have here Permanent shift really in the monetary stance. What happens right now is really unprecedented and comes at a time where The kind of the repercussions of the great over global financial crisis Had not been kind of resolved looking at the balance sheet of the ECB They were not as aggressive at the Fed at the beginning, but then with the silver and debt crisis from 2013 14 onwards they expanded the balance sheet in a massive way and again Come up with you triggers here. So if you would combine the amount of the balance sheets Which they have and we think there's a further expansion out there In the next couple of years This would sum up to something like 50 or above 50 percent of annual GDP by annual gdp. I'm in the 2019 figure here for the u.s And about 60 percent of the area wide gdp for the euro area Compare this with the bank of japan where we have seen earlier that their debt Is likely to increase massively because of the fiscal packages. It's already quite high. So looking at the fiscal deficit or the fiscal not deficit The fiscal debt figures there. It's already around 230 240 percent of gdp and this is like to go up even more to something like 260 percent of annual gdp. So it's more than two and a half years What they need to repay their debt if they ever would they're doing so And this is all only possible Because the central banks are buying this whole stuff and in case of the japanese central bank. We think that the Balance sheet of the bank of japan what is already above 100 percent of annual gdp Is likely to go to something like 120 130 percent Over time. So this is Really a huge amount of intervention what comes up from these measures. So in the short run I think we can see that there is a stabilization coming up from those policies But the big question is what are the longer term consequences? And I think that what happens right here now Could really jeopardize the trust and this firm here that this this trust is not Very high anyway, but this might jeopardize the trust on a broader Basis in the current system. So what we see is that the criminal crisis Really hit the global economy at a stage when we still had not dealt with all of the consequences from the previous recession where we already tried to Put a huge amount Kind of of measures Out there Just to keep the whole show going to kick the can down the road But the problem is the the road is getting steeper by the day and the can is always coming back and we Simply try to continue that game for quite a while and we think Yes, that there is a positive implication from this massive monetary and fiscal stimulus programs right now In order that they help to get us out of the crisis to get back on a path of economic recovery, but over time We will see that We probably need this ultra loose monetary policy to continue because the debt what was piled up now In the crisis both on the public and the private side Is it likely to evaporate Anytime soon and in order to reduce the debt burden It will be the yes request to monetary politicians in the existing fiat money system To keep interest rates very low to buy A huge amount of assets so to expand the balance sheets and in order to dilute the whole problems and this might actually lead to The case that we may may get more and more people who doubt That this really system is likely to work and I think this is likely to increase this doubt once we have leaked Once we have reached the kind of the new steady state of growth and this is probably in I don't know three four years time From here the case and and at that time we probably have not seen any improvement of the debt ratio So it will be very obvious to everyone that all the measures we have taken Has helped on a very short notice, but has Let us Back with a huge amount of debt and in my view we may have for several ways to get out of this One would be that the whole thing With this very massive Increase of the monetary base will lead in the end to inflation We have seen after the global financial crisis that this was not the case But with all of the changes on the structural level right now looking at The global Kind of way to Global trade and all the other Things that are probably permanently Disrupted after the after the crisis We might see some price increases to come through and that In the end might lead to higher interest rates and higher financing costs And this might then lead to a collapse of the high debt having institutions Or we Might see that they continue to pump even more money Into the system in order to yes get this bubble increasing even more and one of the things what I like to happen During this course as we get more subject to fiscal dominance and that Probably will mean that central bankers Independence will be more under threat the way out there Yeah could be structural pranks And I don't think that this is going to happen next year or the year thereafter But in the next couple of years This is likely to take place And one way would be that we go within the existing system Through waves of debt restructuring From both the private and public sector entities or we may get some kind of currency reforms What would be mainly within the existing Fiat monetary or existing central bank system An alternative to this could be that we get Non-centralized currencies and here bitcoin could be an attractive Solution for many investors and and what what I said before was about the value of bitcoin Asked really for this. I think once is determined by the trust in bitcoin itself But it's also determined by the trust In central banks and the trust in the fiat money system and what happens right now with the reaction of Fiscal and monetary policy makers to the Corona crisis could really in the medium term undermine this trust in the existing system and Get kind of a very fast track to alternative systems likely to