 We got a scoring bonanza in week number eight in the NFL and the question is can we do that once again in week number nine? Can we properly identify plays that will have good upside good meeting expectations and looking at the slates? I feel okay about it. I think that we've got a pretty good read I feel pretty good about the way the rosters break down But I got asked Brandon first what his thoughts are I think this is a slate that could go a couple of ways We're gonna break down this week nine main slate and get you said for the main slate over on Fandall This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gondola. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon I'm a still assessing week nine I would say which makes sense. It's Thursday morning But where are you at with regards to week nine as of right now? Yeah, I feel good It's like a baseline where I know Well, like anyone who's listening to show knows that we end with our player loves and I feel like it's not hard to find like the main Player loves. Yeah, but it's the It's like the the others like who to round out lineups with which games to prefer It's not it's not getting possible because we have a few games that just do stand out by themselves, but I think that like What can get lost very easily in this is? We have our preferences, but I Hate to say we have an Austin Echler on the slate We have Josh Jacobs We have Dalvin cook Josh Jacobs is a friend of ours. Let's no not in that group. No, no, no but we have guys at high salaries at running back who can score multiple times and put up yardage and They're not really fitting my default process right now. And that's a bit scary Jacobs is But we can talk about that later on it's it's not easy to build rosters with him I will say that as I'm building one now, but I think that my biggest trouble point this week, which is a massive deviation from last week is running back like Unless we get D on Jackson in which case, you know, it's easy peasy, you know It lock any T and lock in Jackson and kind of feel good about that, but I'm having the biggest issue at running back So I might need you to talk me through that position specifically I feel pretty good at receiver feel good about tight end which is always frightening But we'll break things down and get you how do you feel good about tight end. They're all bad I guess I guess because they're all bad. It's not exactly Yeah, I mean like I have guys who I think are not terrible and that's the exception so The fact that I don't have like the uh-oh's on the slate of like this guy could torch me if I don't use him That makes me feel better about it. So tight end and receiver I don't mind which is weird a very big reversal Quarterback running back a bit more dicey. We'll break all that down They're at the podcast for today But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed because Tom Vecchio is now back breaking down NBA DFS every weekday with the daily ice. So we also have NASCAR for Phoenix coming up either today or tomorrow depending on my productivity It'll be tomorrow. Just kidding tomorrow Maybe tomorrow today I'm getting my COVID booster. So I'm not gonna talk today, but the if I'm awake tomorrow I'll be getting that out tomorrow to break down Phoenix. We'll have that course NBA DFS we got PGA DFS for a couple more before Thanksgiving and USC for select events as well all that right here in the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and our NFL podcast Monday 10 a.m. And Thursday 10 a.m. All live on the fan dual YouTube page as well So subscribe to that or the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed on your podcast platform of choice Now is the perfect time to download fangirl America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers getting no sweat first bed up to $1,000 That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win try out features like same-game parlays play your way and Bet on more than just the final score wager on everything from touchdowns total yards to catches all on that that's safe Secure and super easy to use and so sign up today for your no sweat first bet Make every moment more this season with fandall official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and in select states first online Real money wager only refund issued as non withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook. Fandall comm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or was the fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or Texan acceptify 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Kansas 1-805-2-2-4-100 KS gambling health common Wyoming is also 1-805-2-2-4-700 in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and why our text open why and in Tennessee called the red line at 1-888-9 9789 Let's dig into the slate overview here for week number nine in daily fantasy football. I think the big thing is Can we get Josh Allen? That's my like big overview of the slate is can I get there because his salary is very high at $9,300. He is very clearly the best quarterback plan the slate despite a massive spread in his favor I don't care about that for this week specifically So can I get to Josh Allen for this week? That is my key question and right now I think the answer is off to force it in honestly I think that's kind of where I'm settling in that would get easier if we didn't now Jonathan Taylor If you were to sit and we got Dion Jackson something like that So my overall like thought process for this slate is can I get to Josh Allen? What is your slate over you week number nine? It's similar But it's a little more expansive. It's figuring out where I can't miss. Okay, so We got a look at the top guys at each position. Thankfully. That's not really the case for tight end Which makes it a lot simpler. We don't have Kelsey and Andrews on the slate a some hill to drop a 30 burger out of nowhere. Sure But we have Josh Allen and a few other guys not many but some guys with like tangible Ceilings that if they put up 35, I wouldn't like completely shock us At running back like I already already mentioned we have Austin Eckler Josh Jacobs Jacobs, of course more appealing to us But a receiver that's kind of really where things get dicey in terms of like these guys could torch me if I'm not there Cooper cup will talk about in a little bit more detail. He's not a hundred percent. I'm a little less worried about his path to Destruction for my line-ups, but Justin Jefferson's the fun digs Tyree kill the undre Hopkins like We got T. Higgins with with no Jamar Chase like these guys could really Put up games where you know, I can build around The mid-range running backs and get up to like one or that one of them or something You know, we're gonna have some natural savings at tight end But you know if I think that two or three of these guys really put up like 25 plus At a certain point you can't make up enough points unless you're you magically hit all of the perfect value plays Which right if that's your if you think you'll do that that's great, but it's very difficult to do so It's kind of like weirdly balancing like Josh Allen and a value more like a mid-range or value receiver or like do I try to take a chance on a We like Trevor Lawrence this week to get back up to one of those superstar receivers So it's gonna be a lot of those questions throughout the lineup each and every time I do them Yeah, it is it's Josh Allen paired with can anyone else Put up like a difference making number. Yeah, and that's that's that's what you were talking about There and except running back. I think that Josh Jacobs can put up a difference making number And I'm not super firm on any of the value plays again We don't know if Dion Jackson will be available if he is sick just use him but like Below Deontay Foreman like Rahim Mostred is okay But like there's no one the value running back this week is a lot different than it was last week and so I Think I had to decide, you know Can I go there or do I try to make sacrifices elsewhere? Because right now I don't think I want to spend like if I have a single one single entry lineup I don't think I want to go below ETN at 76 at running back, which it will probably make it tough to get Josh Allen But we can talk about that. I can I can make it work I'm looking at one right now, but it's you're you're getting things a little thin there for sure Let's dig into the injuries and treats impacting the week nine and main slate Cooper cup miss practice Wednesday with an ankle injury He suffered it late in week eight though. It sounds like there is optimism. He will play We'll talk about this offense in this game overall later But does cup missing practice on Wednesday alter your view of him and the offense entering this week Yeah, it makes me lower on the look if you're gonna play Cooper cup I guess you could say it's for the I'm gonna say that for we're gonna say floor But it's also like he's one of the few guys who just has a floor and a ceiling when he's like fully healthy I think the chances that he reaches a true ceiling game when he's not a hundred percent go way down And so at his salary, we're not getting any sort of like relief because he's not a hundred percent. So I'm lower on him, but you know Alan Robinson is a wildly over salaried even if cup misses I think the running back situation is a complete avoid Like I could have talked about camp acres practicing Thursday here, but there's no point why why to talk about it? Who cares like maybe Like Tyler Higbee gets a bump and we got to consider him a bit more at 61 That's probably the the ram that I would at the only ram that I would really roster this week What's his dust per route? Sorry yards per route run. Oh, sorry misspoke there on Higbee But yeah, I'm off that train I've given up and like you're talking about can this guy burn me with cup The odd city burns you for not using go down when he's banged up Which is the case right now and it just makes you feel better about potentially of winning in this week Jonathan Taylor mispractice Wednesday due to an ankle injury. He aggravated on Sunday They team also traded Naheem Hines on Tuesday, so They did also trade for Zach Moss I want to make that note Because that does add some extra uncertainty the equation potentially, but a JT sits Are we going a hundred percent Dion Jackson against the Patriots and a JT plays? How high can you be on him after getting confirmation that he's still playing super banged up? Yes, the hard part with with Taylor um He's been on the list of like I can't wait to buy back in and the salary's been getting lower and lower and then it just like plummeted and You know for anyone who didn't listen to the Monday recap show, you know, we just sort of posed the question like Imagine in September if Deontay form and at 73 is like a huge underdog was over Jonathan Taylor like versus Jonathan Taylor at 68 was like a legitimate question Yeah, I Don't know how you feel great about Taylor. It's nice that the salaries down. Yeah, if he was still at 8,000 It'd just be a complete right off. Sure The trade helps. Yes of Hines because someone's got to get that third down work But it probably just gonna be Jackson if Taylor's not fully healthy. So I'll say JT's like a differentiation piece I can't even call him a game stack piece because he's playing the Patriots. So it's not gonna be the end We're stacking so if I want to get different I could see it. I'm probably not gonna play lineups that way. Yeah But without him Deon is probably about 80 to 100 percent. Yeah Yeah, and the two games without Taylor this year one of which Hines did start in those two games though Jackson 91 yards and 121 yards. He had 10 targets in that second game Obviously, you know that everyone like you remember that but I want to remind you that his his workload from a DFS perspective where we want past catchers even on a half PPR site. It was awesome So do you get points for like receiving yards and stuff? I'll check Can we like do we have a contact that we can reach out to you to see if you do? I can't remember if you receiving yards count Do you get a half do you get point five points for every time a guy catches the ball? I had a question is point five bigger than zero I'm not a math guy Curious Yeah, Deon Jackson Saturn Fandula $5,000 if we get him with no JT he so I had I think 89 percent Pollard last week I would be higher than that. I think on Jackson if we were to get him without JT Physically, we need it. We had a few other options last week with four minutes 64 We don't really have that this week exactly Mike Williams will sit this week for the Chargers and keen now in this practice Wednesday with his hamstring injury They say he's day-to-day, but he sounds like he's gonna sit if you're day-to-day for like months You're still dated. Yeah How long are these days Brandon Staley? How long are these days if I knew enough? I say he's on a different planet, but I don't know which days are longer than Earth days, but I Don't know either. I was trying to figure it out, but I didn't show again not a math guy or a science guy What am I they did get Josh Palmer and Donald Parham back at practice at least But we'll talk about the Chargers in the bookmaker section Alan the czar to turn to practice Wednesday after missing last week of the shoulder Injury Aaron Rodgers also practiced Wednesday with his thumb injury. The thing is noteworthy Christian Watson did not practice. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section the lion freighted teachy Hawkinson to the Vikings on Tuesday. We'll talk about the lions Without Hawkinson in the bookmaker section But the Vikings now have Hawkinson and he could play a bit on Sunday against Washington So how does adding Hawkinson into the fold impact your view of Justin Jefferson Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook in this offense? So long term, it's gonna elevate the offense when you have just another Playmaker I can't imagine he plays a lot Especially being a tight end. That's gonna be hard to adapt to maybe some slot routes But my biggest fear is that he has like some red zone packages scripted up and that lowers the touchdown equity for his teammates so Overall, I think this week it's a negative even if he ends up playing like 40% of the snaps or something I Feel it's like you said they're using me in high leverage situations high leverage and when he's on the field He's either involved or very likely to you know be one of the first first reads on a Past play so they're probably not gonna run them out there like run block, right? We've had we've talked about feeling the past couple of weeks. I think that this allows me to just kind of disregard him Which is nice Not but I didn't mind using him. I thought it was fine But I also don't mind disregarding him. So I think I'd lower him because of the stuff you mentioned He's banged up. He's old like it. Yeah, and you can't play like this But this just feels like they they get down on the 10 and they bring out TJ Hawkinson and like there's extra attention to Justin Jefferson and Hawkinson and then now I'm feeling just wide open in the back of the end zone for two of the easiest touchdowns I could ever think of so I I sometimes I get those flash forwards in my head usually when it's whenever a game goes to half time or like and the first quarter It's like three nothing. Yeah, I feel like Adam feeling like second touchdown overlays is coming soon. Yep, exactly So slight downgrade of feeling I think Jefferson's still fine You know, I did I'm not using Hawkinson doesn't impact me on DALF as of right now The Dolphins acquired Jeff Wilson from the 49ers on Tuesday, but they also traded trace Edmonds It sounds like Wilson will be active this week. He should know Mike McDaniels offense So does adding Wilson in the fold alter your view over he most read at $6,500 It would more if most shirt wasn't 65. Yeah You know, he was dinged up early Last week played 42% of the snaps in the first half overall ended up I think it's 64% but in the second half he returned played 85% Of the snaps for this team. It's clear that like they like him that they want him to sort of be their guy when when they can Jeff Wilson Has four career games with more than three targets. I don't think that He'll be a complete nuisance in the receiving game that could help bump up most shirt Obviously the biggest concern is that we've seen Jeff Wilson needs the word again, but just be a nuisance Like a real menace at the goal line and take touchdowns away. So that hurts But it's 6,500 you could probably get a hundred yards from most dirt and said like receiving and be okay Even if he doesn't score So it's more of a salary based thing that I'm still in on most dirt because of I think he's still fine But this does increase the uncertainty I would say because like with Edmonds you knew they were not going to They weren't going to budge most of its role because they hated chase Edmonds and he was playing pretty bad Whereas with Wilson like he's a viable option. They traded for him like that shows intense shows they're seeking him out so I think that the the Alternatives got better for the Dolphins, which means there's increased uncertainty most dirt So I think that he's fine at 65 I will very likely have him in my player pool unless some report comes out Sunday that Wilson will be like a hyper-involved guy But you know, well most are still okay, but not a priority for me at 65 Darren Waller was limited in practice Wednesday with his hamstring injury. He Seemed close to returning last week, but ultimately sat We'll talk about the Raiders and the Jags in the bookmaker section the Bears Acquired Chase Claypool at the trade deadline on Tuesday. It's not yet known if he'll be active this week But we'll talk about them in the trend section Cordero Patterson was designated to return from IR from the Falcons It's unclear if he'll play this week, but it does make it a possibility. They'll be out there You look pretty good It's some videos that I saw we'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Shabbard, but yeah, he also said that You know people were DMing him about their fantasy teams, but not DMing him to ask how he's doing. So just just Be nice to just don't DM it to begin with but if you are probably courteous like, you know Also closer DMs Cordero like what are we doing here? Don't do that. Like, um, yeah I'm hoping I saw that headline correct. I was growing red it and I saw that but I don't want to anyway Well, I never mind. I retract the question. I don't want to talk about others social media platforms Anyway, Chuba Hubbard got any limited practice Wednesday while dealing with his ankle injury He missed week eight which helped ignite the Deontae form an explosion. So We talked about form in Monday and we were like, okay, you know negative game script against the Bengals Maybe then based on the Bengals play Monday Maybe a negative game script that could increase the uncertainty there We're okay with him at 73 if there's no Hubbard not like again a priority I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I think that's kind of where we settle in What about if Hubbard plays? How do you form in that? So I downgraded him a little bit But honestly not too much the snap rate for form was just 65% and we saw some other guys mix in a little bit So there's room for Hubbard to play but still have form and be You know what he was last week and I was very involved when he was on the field the issue is Do we love guys with a 60 to 65% snap rate above 7,000 on a bad offense coming off of a three touchdown game Probably not I'm not I'm not saying this is like a one-to-one But I get like Damian Harris vibes of like oh he just scored three times like The offense is still bad, but he has the potential is better than Damian Harris at least But like I think John to form is pretty talented sure But how do you think he's talented enough to overperform within this offense time and time again? I'm skeptical the offense on the whole. So I think we're on the same page. Um, I like as of now Even if Hubbard plays he's very much a consideration for me because I need salary Who do you feel better about relative to salary between him and most dirt? I Think they're very similar at salary most dirt because he's just injected in Very good offense. Okay. I think I agree with you, but I think that they're in this they're they're in the same bucket for me Yeah, I mean, you know, we did early season trends on like what happens after a guy score the salary Increases obviously fantasy points almost exclusively decrease. That's especially true for a multi-touch down game I'm not saying his salary like went to 8,000 or anything, you know exorbitant But these guys typically underperform even whenever you Remove touchdowns like he had rushing yards over expectation last week. Like it's not a great situation So again, this is not like a you can't play him because the salary is reasonable this week, but I Think I'd probably go most dirt at salary because where's that 800 that That can do a lot it Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and I'd rather have most dirt plus Christian Kirk than Zay Jones and Deontay former I like Zay Jones too, but I think that's the two to V2. I'd talk up And I think I'd prefer the most your side So I agree with you $800 does move the needle this week Cory Davis mispractice again Wednesday with his knee injury without him last week Garrett Wilson had a really nice day Elijah Moore is expected to get his role expanded this week Maybe who can say? I don't know. What's your read on this offense? They're they're big dogs. Not big dogs They're big dogs against the bills. What's your read on them? Yeah, how about that like You can either be a big dog or like a yep your big dog. I Like Garrett Wilson, I liked him last week and I talked about him and we talked about like value receivers tending to hit Ceilings in games with more points and it's unsurprising. But again, like you really gotta be nitpicky They're also more sensitive to match up. Mm-hmm. So I don't love that. I Definitely don't hate the $5,800 salary though and his market share is being very he's like been one of the constants Tyler Conklin also has had a good role That's not like a primary sort of play neither of them are yeah, but we're gonna want to bring things back and if I'm playing Josh Allen It's not always in hopes that it's a complete shootout. Yeah, because he can still do things like what I do against Pittsburgh And now 25. Yeah. No, huh? 36 Remember that if you have 10 Josh Allen lineups, how many of them have a jet on the opposing side? Right five. I think that's correct. That's where I'd be as well and It'd probably be Wilson almost every time probably three to four Wilson and The other ones like Tyler Conklin because tight-ended is what it is. I'd probably go Elijah more just for fun he says the Revenge narrative against his own team what could go wrong? Don't I'd prefer over Conklin personally really? Yeah I don't know. I mean We don't need to like have huge Tyler Conklin talk, but He's fine He had 10 targets last week seven of them at least ten yards downfield Which is fun on three of the four end zone targets. Okay. It's not bad. He's viable I know his role if Elijah Moore's role actually does improve Conklin's gonna lose some of that, but yeah Denzelman's not really out there and a lot of targets this competition. Okay, so neither is more Devonte Parker didn't practice Wednesday due to his knee injury. Does this give you any interest in? Jukobi Myers or Tyquan Thorne against the Colts? You know, I'm I'm generally a Jukobi Myers guy to be to be frank He's the guy you asked me like we asked about each week and I'm like, okay I don't know with salary, but I know his salary is like 66 to 68 I think we did that same. It's not even a bit, but I think we talked about that on Monday show But like it's true. He's 68. That's kind of high. Yeah, especially with Chris Godwin it Chris Godwin 67 gave David 66. I think Tyler Boyd is probably more attractive Boyd way more. I think Lazard if you were to play at 65 I like Kirk the 6,000 is weirdly good this week The issue though is like if you play Josh Allen and the three running backs we love most you can't even get up there So you can get there If you have one value play like if you drop down to a Z Jones Or a Garrett Wilson you can get back up to Like low low six thousands not like no This is Josh Allen gave Davis Chris Godwin. I'm reading off the lineup Josh Allen gave Davis Chris Godwin Z Jones. Yeah, Tanya big shot Bob at a five thousand years at tight end Aaron Jones Travis etn But not dolphins. I was saying Jacobs, right, right, right to get to Jacobs. You need to jump down from Godwin to Like Darnell Mooney or something, but yeah, or maybe really. Yeah, I don't know I really want to build around That range. It's a good range, but I don't think it includes Jacobi Myers this week firm agree JD McKessick and Johan Dotson mispractice Wednesday McKessick has a neck injury Dachshund still dot I keep typing out Dachshund Because of Josh Dachshund, but he will not leave my brain Johan Dotson. No, see Dotson's so trying to come back from his hamstring injury any value opening up for you If those two guys were to sit against the Vikings boy this again You can say no, it's okay, but like it's hard just to write it off completely in a game that we like Well, I mean with with assets we like, you know, if you're if you're banking on Justin Jefferson being relevant Terri at 72 is harder to justify. Yeah Your guy Curtis Samuel 56 So when the games they played since the Dotson injury McLaurin is at a 21. I should probably do the past Heineke's played the past to correct So in those two games with Heineke 27% share for McLaurin, but that's eight targets per game because they don't throw a lot because why would you if you had dongle arm is your quarterback Samuel 20% target share, but that's six targets per game Antonio Gibson is that's an 18% share in those games as far as deep work Three a game for McLaurin, that's not bad one a game for Samuel, which is better than what he was doing before So I just don't I don't know. I don't feel like there's a ton of upside on that team, honestly Does Curtis Samuel have How many rushes does he have less spreadsheet wrong This is a great. This is great conversation, but I want to make sure that this is right Isn't too many or not enough Curtis Samuel. He's had five. Yeah, he's had nine. He's had nine in the past two games two games Yeah, I want to make sure because he was coming up at four and a half for me in that span, but Interesting at 56 when we need some savings intriguing So if you look at his receiving yardage upside he has in broken 80 I don't have all these combined, but he's added 26 and 29 rushing yards the past two games He has a rushing attempt inside the red zone in two straight Maybe I do like Curtis Samuel I Think if he if he were above if you had a six in front of a salary, I'd be hesitant But 56 is quite low On a week where we need stuff again This goes back into like the conversation we had last week where was it last week probably last week where like value receivers don't hit At a high rate But if they're in games that can put up points That changes things. I think this game could be fairly high scoring So I think I should probably Consider Samuel more than I I had yeah Looks like by my stuff the 43 and a half point total is appropriate But 43 and a half points also not terrible for 2022 whatever. Yeah, if they put up like 47 48 points, it's not like Okay, I'm more open to him now than I was before so I'm glad we talked about that I think he's actually pretty viable, which is fun I'll probably use him now, which is upsetting camera break got in a limited practice on Wednesday That's his first practice since his neck injury Russell gauge and Julio Jones did not practice Jones played through his injury in week eight Got a late touchdown for my single entry teams and gauge did not play there We'll talk about that team in the trend section. Let's start things off though with the bookmaker discussion for week number 9 starting off with the tide for highest total on the board that is in Arizona for the Cardinals and the Seahawks That's at 49 and a half Cardinals are favored by two here and that's well and good But these two teams just saw each other a couple weeks ago It was a low-scoring game where the Cardinals didn't show up. They have since added Deandre Hopkins We often see these repeat divisional matchups come up short. So how does this one rank for you in terms of stacking? rank for me If I take like the entire game environment into account This might still could because it's basically this game We're gonna talk Packers Lions next and then we're gonna talk Chargers Falcons. That's basically the big three If I take it it would count like both sides of it. This is probably still number one I Think if you inject the Andre Hopkins into a lineup, we've seen positive shifts In terms of efficiency for this team since getting Hopkins back, which is not that surprising Hopkins also in that first game was not fully up to speed and there were a few miscommunications So that I think there's room to grow. I Always shy away from not shy away as in like can't touch anyone from a repeat divisional matchup especially one that's like so close together, but I think that's enough of an of a wrinkle to kind of throw in that things are a bit different. Yeah, and you know, I can talk myself into One packer one or two Packers for certain the receivers or their own thing by that by that I mean Aaron Jones and Robert Tanya, and so like I think like the sheer amount of guys I could consider in this game puts it number one That's probably fair, but like I just feel icky about this one Not that's why that's why they're the worst team in DFS because yeah, we want to go there, but it's always bad Yeah, it feels icky I think that if I were to get the read that these two teams would not be super heavily rostered by Sunday based on the fact that game Was so low scoring the first time I'd be more intrigued But if you're gonna tell me that DK Metcalf title lock it will have a lot of popularity, you know Deandre Hopkins will Rondale more Kyler Murray if they're always popular I see a lot of paths this game falling flat and then I I would be very nervous But I think this is the only game on the slate where I would at least consider both quarterbacks I'd consider both of them, and that's not true for any other game on this slate So I think by that Inherently I have to be high on it, but like it just gives me the heat of GVs for some reason No, it doesn't I think it should yeah, but you know if you asked me to rank it That's different than how I feel about it if I rank it I think despite the potentials for for it to be a little bit underwhelming It's still number one because like you said it's the only two QB game I'm not saying I'm gonna for sure play both quarterbacks, but I'm like you said open to it We have big ceilings available from these guys. I don't know how it's not Better than the other two games we're gonna talk about which again are just kind of in their own tier this week Yeah, so go looking at the injury port for this week on Wednesday both title lock it and DK Metcalf Practice they were limited, but they practiced. I think that's a pretty good thing in terms of their availability for this week Probably means that they're getting healthier. I would say the problem is that they're in the 7000 range I adore the 6,000 range for once and I do like T. Higgins at 8,000. I do like Waddle Hopkins Tyreek in the 8,000 range. So I like the ranges around them What are you doing with Metcalf and Lockett this week? Playing them in game stacks don't necessarily feel the need to build around them in you know One-off line-ups or like put them in one-offs like I'm gonna do with Chris Godwin for example It's gonna be when I stack this game I'm gonna have exposure to them and I don't think I'm gonna be able to get there and because like that's gonna take a concession To have Hopkins in one of those two receivers that is by default going to have me not playing Josh Allen Because I'm gonna play one of the quarterbacks Probably not Josh Jacobs then at that rate. So, you know, it's gonna be a not my default build So they're not really gonna fit into when I'm building Pivots off of what my default lineup is. I agree that Rhonda more we talked about his role on Monday how super low a dot but he was productive He's had some yardage upside this year 92 yards on Sunday you could debate whether that yardage upside is 85 of them after the catch. Yeah, he's good. I mean like, you know, he's a good player So like that's not entirely bogus. Sure. He is good But how many times has he done that in the past despite being good means it's he's played Five plus whatever many games you play last year. It's not like, you know, we have a huge sample on him I Feel like he's 59. I think if I again if I got the read he'd be popular I would run away and hide But I'm not really getting that read as of right now because we have other guys right above more attractive So like I think that more will be a rotational piece for me as a value play He might not he won't be the top guy there because I do like say Jones more Maybe I'll talk myself into more Curtis Daniel as well Romeo Dobbs is there like I think that if Dobbs winds up being super popular to do the matchup I just pivot to more and I'd actually feel like okay about that So I've you miss being a pivot off of other potential options. Is he good enough to be that for you? I Think just in game stacks. Okay. And again, I don't know if I'm gonna have like if I have Rondell more in a lineup I don't think it's because I'm pairing him with Tyler Lockett and DK Maccalf unless I go out of my way to put that mini stack in yeah So it's hard for me to envision over 10 or 20 lineups that I do that if I was playing 150 200 lineups I would force more of those but I think it's more of a roster construction Construction yeah situation. Okay Kyler and Gina where did they rank for you among non Josh Allen quarterbacks? Kyler might be number two We've seen him play better With Deondra Hopkins back, which is not surprising Still rushing he's got 30 yards or more in both of those games Spoiler alert. He's one of my loves this week Gino he's probably So if I've Allen one Murray two At Salary Trevor Lawrence is probably number three. I don't disagree where are you with Like Chua and burrow versus Gino like who's in the conversation for you after if those are your same three I don't know if Murray sure I don't think I'll use burrow this week 85 without Jamar Chase is tough So probably not there To depends on the wind. It's a 13 miles per hour right now when I downgrade him at that stick So I think it might be Josh Allen one Trevor Lawrence two And then inhale potentially Kyler and Gino three four It's probably close to it. I'd love to sit sit here and say like I'll play a lot of Justin Fields, but I Don't think I can do that With confidence on Thursday with the wind being what it is I might not matter for Justin. That's true, but yeah It's a I Think I am higher on this game than I thought I was but do I want to be higher on it? No Let's move now to the Packers at the Lions Packers three and a half point road favorites against the Lions total That game is 14 9 and a half the Lions defense is a train wreck But you could almost say the exact same thing about the Packers offense, of course, no teachy Hawkinson, which means we could consider Potentially some under salary guys in the Lions side. What's your overall view of this game? Yeah, overall Should be fun probably will be a bit gross because Green Bay I think found something Against the bills and that was just to run the ball and be even slower than they have been they've historic since I started keeping pace that's like they've been horrendous, which is the complete opposite of what you want to do if you think you have a good quarterback and a Good offense you want more plays. I think that they know they don't though so That's an issue Love Aaron Jones. Yeah this week Historically, I've been low on Aaron Jones no longer the case this week, especially in this matchup and especially with the You know being committed to the run and the fact that he had a better role than AJ Dillon when they committed to the run is very telling I Think Romeo Dobbs is very much in play Even with even if you know we get Lazard back. I don't think it's gonna matter too much He's been one of he's just sort of been involved over the past I think four or five games He's been at 87 percent of the routes and all of those So I don't think he's really that sensitive to Lazard coming back It's such a good matchup that I don't want to talk myself out of it And we have a big shot Bob Tunyon as well at 5,000 probably the best tight end play of the slate at salary Very close to it. So we got three guys. I feel good about Yeah, expanding on Jones the past two weeks 28 and 30 adjust opportunities. Those are both his highs What's an adjusted opportunity? It's a carry plus two times their target total because carries or targets are worth twice as much as a Carry on Vandal a half PPR site again receiving yards do count so I think that Jones is Among the bees probably number two for me behind ETN as far as the best running back plays Considering in salary all of the week. So They're the two guys I'm playing and then it's like do I have to get on the most dirt or can I get up to Jacobs? That's more the question. Yep. So I think that that's how I know that those are my top two firm agree on that as well With Dobbs, he's fine. I think that he is trappy if he gets popular and like I think that I will say that phrase more this week than any other week because a lot of the people who could potentially be chalk have multiple paths to destruction to being bad and That's the situation where I'm willing to pivot. Um, it's like Deontay Forman willing to pivot. He gets popular Romeo Dobbs Robert Tanya to an extent willing to pivot. He gets popular. Um, I think that's that's how I'm viewing that Will you use Aaron Rodgers because I looked at initial roster a projections on Wednesday, and he was a he was in double digits Wow. Yeah He has maxed out at 17.14 fandal points. He's been between like 13 and 17 in every game. I don't want that He had 4.7 in the opener, but yeah, oh boy 11.8 To the 17.1 and those what seven games since then Do you think he has a path to 30 right now? No, I Don't get that Sentiment whenever the team is like, okay, you know You have the option of trying to compete with the bills, which no team really aside from like a select few should be dolphins Yeah, sure Should really consider like trying to compete with the bills, but like if your default is Muck it up. Let's just try to get as few plays as possible. We're down They were down 17 for like a lot of the second half and they're just like we're good That's we got they know that we need seven more points to cover. So we got time genius So committing to the run early I would get that would be It's own thing but staying committed to the run down that much and not hurrying is Problematic, I mean Rodgers like the positive is he's got multiple touchdowns and all but two games, but hasn't topped 255 in terms of yardage Doesn't run I don't really see the the case for it like yeah, he's he's Quite likely to have his best game of the year so far this way his best game could be 25 points and that's your max You know What about Lazard? I don't think it's a lock he plays by any means and if he doesn't play it would increase my sentiment towards dogs Because they have no one else to like bench him for So like if he doesn't play I'd increase my view of dogs be less willing to pivot if he's popular But what if Lazard plays how will you view him at $6,500? Probably over salaried at 65 for me. I think I'm a little bit higher than that What's that? I think I'm a little bit higher than that Well over salaried for me However, this is a game that I'm going to want to stack with mini stacks. I think all mon raw st Brown is Quite under salaried. I agree. So if I just Combine the two and say like I could play Lazard at 6,000 and all mon rot 76 that'd be the same total salary. I would do that So, you know, you don't really want to quote-unquote waste salary by thinking of it that way whenever you could Take the value if you like st. Brown, which I think we all showed this week. It's worth But you also want to be able to like tie these guys together so that their ceilings can can match Yeah, with the lion side of things. I agree that a mon raw st. Brown is the best play I think by a significant margin and if I had like Let's say I had 10 mini stacks this game. I might have a mon raw st. Brown in nine It's like what else am I doing? Josh Reynolds is still banged up and kind of isn't that good The back up to teach you Hawkinson is Brock right, but he's in connection protocol didn't practice Wednesday James Mitchell is a fifth round rookie who is next up on the list. He's minimum salary and fan to one 4,000 but like Can I reasonably trust him to earn targets when the alternatives are a mon raw st. Brown and you know despite not liking Josh Reynolds? Jared golf has chemistry with him. So can I trust that James Mitchell will earn targets in this offense from the jump? Not really so I understand the desire to spend down with rights if he plays or with Mitchell But I think I'd rather just go with a mon raw st. Brown if I'm trying to get exposure to this alliance team No Deandre Swift no Jamal Williams. It's it's tough on the lion side of things for me What if I could interest you Maybe He's 54. He's had 75 and 76 yards the past Two games his past three games. He's run 95 87 95 percent of the routes counterpoint Four targets last week with a mon raw bean fully healthy They're too deep last week. Okay. Are we are we getting rid of TJ Hawkinson from this equation? TJ Hawkinson is four targets last week. Oh boy. Go nuts. Get your man I Think you're being too dismissive if you won't consider Raymond in one of the better games of the week Too dismissive. I won't consider a 29 year old that accurate. I don't know He is I have no idea how cool clean frame is he is he's born in 94 28 I was one year off if I if I won't consider a 28 year old who hasn't had what's his like What's his best yardage output in his career? He's had He's had a 23 24 and 11 percent target share in game in his past three you can nitpick the 11 percent, but I Think that you're again being a little bit dismissive. I Will probably end up with more Khalif Raymond than most because I will want to bring it back with Aaron Jones We're like Tanya, so But like I'm not saying you're saying it's a perfect play in that Raymond as a bring back at 54 for a Jones-Lazar-Dobbs tonion lineup or would you rather use a guy who like I Can't be that high and say Jones Can't pretend like Z Jones is completely flawless either I think it's true It's three targets last week It's against the the Broncos Was it London brand it doesn't count. Okay, look, I'm not saying Khalif Raymond's flawless. I'm saying I'm not gonna use him. So that's fine. Yeah, you don't do a bet. No You're acting like I'm like saying Khalif Raymond is like my favorite all-time favorite play. I'm just saying No, I'll pick I'll get a good bet for you. I'm not gonna do Z Jones Khalif Raymond or Alec Pierce Raymond Okay, can I get can we do that a bet? Sure. Okay. I'll take Alec Pierce. You can have Khalif Raymond. That's the worst bet We haven't read that's that's awful. That's hideous. Oh his five and four targets. Wow He's an alpha Yeah, the Colts alpha wide receiver versus 28 year old scrubs with like a 9% pass rate under expectation last week Yeah But I'm doing it anyway, okay Let's finish up with the Chargers at the Falcons at 49 and a half point total Chargers favorite by three My model shows value on the Falcons side though. There's no Mike Williams here I think likely no Keenan Allen, but the Falcons are a headache on offense. So how are you viewing this game? This we're talking about trap games and games that could go poorly Jim what do the Falcons like to do on offense? They like to run the they like to run the the D word football, you know And what do the Chargers have no ability to do defensively stop the D word football? so this is somewhat similar to Like when we talked about the Browns and Ravens where it was like, you know The totals nice, but there are reasons to think that there aren't a ton of plays that, you know They could be a lot of run plays keep the clock moving. I think this is probably that game. I Would like Justin Herbert if he had at least one of his receivers healthy I don't care if Keenan Allen plays at this point. He is still not a hundred percent this far removed from everything So like I'll use Gerald Everett. Sure. I guess maybe this just says Austin Echler is gonna see as much work as he can handle and maybe everyone's listening to this I mean like you guys are dummies if you don't like build around Austin Echler. Guess what we are dummies sometimes It's true, I mean we're talking Khalif Raymond Alec Pierce Betts Oh, we okay. Okay. Yeah, let's say we are not talking Khalif Raymond. Don't put that on me. But yeah, so Look, I could see like if I maybe do like Echler and We talked about some reasons to be a little bit higher on Kyle Piz. I hate his salary at 6,300 His role has changed in recent weeks the the market shares up to 35% the eight dots down. So he's getting more like He's less volatile Still don't love the he is the prototype He is like the prototype of if he's popular hard pass sure if he's not Count me in like if everyone goes to Robert Honey in this week and No one wants to go to pits I think the pits actually is a legitimately good play because there is a path to the Chargers getting ahead and forcing Marcus Mario to throw to throw 15 times instead of 12. So like There is a path to them that 35% target share leading to meaningful targets and that's enough for me to like consider him and it's enough for me to consider Drake London because Those targets could easily go his way too. We shouldn't just assume that pits will retain a 35% target share I think that it's fair to think that I'll have a very high target share But if they do throw it could wind up benefiting London too. So I would say He's similar to Garrett Wilson last week where it doesn't feel good. But like, you know, he's a good football player He has a low salary. There's a path to them throwing a bit more than usual So I would say both pits and London are considerations But I cannot make either a core play because I know this team fundamentally does not want to throw the football So two questions for you one rank These five Okay, Drake London 56 Curtis Samuel 56 Alec Pierce 55 Z Jones 55 and I'll throw in Khalif Raymond who I know is dead last for you He's dead last pierces forth I tried to put Pierce in there to make it more even because I know that we like say, yeah, and London more So between Zay London and Samuel I might go Samuel last like third It's tough So this is like this is the exact kind of conversation that like why I want to do the value receiver trend because like, oh, yeah You could play all these guys, but statistically most of them are gonna be bad plays, right? No, maybe one of those five are good plays You know, I should have built around like value receivers, which one will be which one will be they all have tons of issues. So You're saying Samuel last I think it goes Zay Then London then Samuel But I don't feel good enough to make any of them like a standout play. So I think it's this is a situation where I just rotate through those guys Frankly because the carries I might have Samuel first That's fair. I can't push back on that a lot of coin flips. And then the second question was like better stack For multi let's say single let's say a single entry tournament sure Josh Jacobs and Zay Jones Okay, or Echler and Drake London that's not quite the same salary but Same sort of thought process. So I like that game more. I like the Jags game more. So I would go Jacobs and Jones And probably I guess Echler is probably gonna be chalky If possible, so Okay, I think I think Jacobs will be too, but that's fine. So Um, I'd go Jacobs. Would you go the same? Yeah, okay But knowing that I can play London and Echler makes me think that I might have some Echler after all Even though the salary is really high. Yeah Yeah, I I'm higher on Echler than I've been the entire year, right, but Like if we get Dion Jackson as a value running back that makes it a lot easier to get to Echler Yeah, so but I also think I'd rather use the savings like use Jackson Aaron Jones Travis Etn and then Have more ability to get to Tyree Kill and guys like that and Josh Allen stuff like that I think that I'd rather use the savings there personally than elsewhere Okay, let's dig into our trend section at four week number nine starting off with that game Brandon, I kind of think the Jags are fun Talk me off the ledge. Talk me out of having a lot of Jags lineups this week. Talk me out of it I don't think I'm gonna do it because I'm talking talking to jaguars against one job Jaguars against bad past defenses. So some teams are match-dependent and that's fine There's nothing wrong with that for in terms of fantasy football totally works It's very likely that Trevor Lawrence and the jaguars still pretty match-up dependent Lawrence overall this season has put up 0.9 passing that expected points per drop back and if I average is 0.07. So that's 0.02 above You mean 0.09 you said 0.9. I was like, oh my gosh That'd be pretty sick, but no if we if he was a 0.09 we would all know You're projecting forward to sunday when he puts a point. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Cool. I got you look Decimal points are hard for me. I'm an english major. No, you're just you weren't looking forward. I get it I've been there this week. He gets the Raiders who are 31st and adjusted past the offense according to number fire Lawrence has four Four games against teams that are 20th or worse And adjusted past the offense in those games. He's at a 0.16 Passing that expect the points per drop back some more than double The NFL average and that's still above expectation. Even if you adjust for the opponents that he's played 255 yards per game However, just 0.8 passing touchdowns per game the efficiency of those implies a much better expected passing touchdown rate So I don't want to knock him down for that because he's been efficient in those The Raiders also 27th and pressure rate Lawrence is yet to play our team currently ranked worse than 18th and pressure rate according to next gen stats Again I think there's reasons to like this offense and Lawrence himself at 6800. He's also got viable stack options. Um, I'm not going to look at like defense based Matchups for like market shares because it's not the best way to do it But in six games with today's Jones and Marvin Jones Christian Kirk has a 21 target share to lead the team at 7.8 per game Zaza Z is next at seven and a half targets per game. That's about 20 percent Marvin's at 18 percent Evan Ingram at 17 percent So the most stable workload Belongs to Christian Kirk and we're talking about day Jones a lot, but we both firmly ranked Christian Kirk above We love Christian It feels like years ago that Christian Kirk was like erupting But his his market share has been stable and now he's finally in a good matchup So I think Christian Kirk is a great play at his salary Zay Jones though has at least a 97 percent route rate and three straight Which is very appealing Marvin's role is declining currently Evan Ingram is viable too. The Raiders are last in adjusted fandal points per target allowed to tight ends according to my numbers Again, it's not a huge threat of ceilings at tight end this week Of course, we love Travis etn. He's Possibly the best play at running back if not second best behind Aaron Jones He was an instant write down for us on Monday so I guess my main concern really isn't like Should be like the jacks because I think We should the salaries are all appropriate Even etn his salary being the highest is Very appropriate. If not, it's the most undersouried Like it's yeah I guess the biggest question is like can we trust the Raiders? as well to keep this game fun or are they going to get trounced and ruin things so they're favored. I know but like can we trust they shouldn't be based on my numbers, but they are favored So like I think that that helps quite a bit and I think the question with like the the jags is like Is the let down potential big enough for us to pivot away from them? And I don't think it is I honestly think they're fine which is like concerning and also like People aren't going to use Trevor Lawrence. Like he's going to be on three percent of rosters probably who cares But I think that like We have like this I keep saying like we have this negative highlight bias in our brains We had Evan Silva on our betting podcast a couple years ago. He talked about that with regards to Why you should bet Lamar Jackson win MVP one year and then he won MVP We had this negative highlight bias in our brains where we see bad plays And we assume that person is a bad player. I don't think that's the case with Trevor Lawrence I think he's a good football player who makes bad plays and you put him in a matchup against vegas and as you showed He can be good in good matchups. So I think that Lawrence is Pretty good if I don't use josh allen in the single entry lineup It probably gotta be Lawrence fully honest to be fully honest and like if I use Lawrence I can stack him with both etn and christian kirk and feel really good about that And if I use Lawrence, it allows me to use josh jacob's without Like being dumb elsewhere. So I actually feel okay being behind the jags I'm not that nervous about it. Honestly. So I think we're just I think we're okay to be behind them honestly I think the real key is the The three games we talked about in the bookmaker section, which is basically the three best games of the week They'll have issues. They're all flawed. Yeah This we talked about this too with quarterback. It's like you're you're betting if you're taking a value quarterback you're betting against the true unmatchable ceiling games of the studs that is a fear with josh allen Not so much with burrow without jamar chase It's still there with kyler because I think that there's reasons to Like him with hopkins, but also we know that they just played and it wasn't great Uh, just played seattle. I should clarify there Tua Has it but even in the best possible matchup He had 382 and three and that was 29 vandal points because the rushing is just not Super game changing. So he needs like four touchdowns and 400 yards really to like destroy us like he did back in against baltimore So it's kind of like if you consider kyler and tuas like half Fears and allen is one. It's like two kind of guys that you really gotta worry about So I think laurence is much more viable on this slate than on most other thing is My number is like this game a lot I have projected offensive efficiency for both individual teams and full games The top projected game this week of any game is uh cheese titans. That's because of the cheese It's just because of the cheese, but Number one in the main slate Is raiders jags in terms of projected offensive efficiency Individual teams on the main slate. You got buffalo one obvious To his green bay because a matchup three is miami makes sense. Talk about vacuum in a second. Number four is jacksonville Five is the chargers. No downgrade for keenan in that yet. I would say because I want to leave open the chance he plays Five is the there are six of the raiders So both the team's top six in the main slate and projected offensive efficiency I kind of think it's a good game to stack and I I'm probably gonna be too high in this game We'll see how it goes We'll see Okay, my first trend is talking about the bear's offense, which kind of might be getting better One game with like a middling total this week is that one? Uh, that's the dolphins and the bears We know the dolphins offense The question is whether they'll get pushed and whether we can stack this game that comes down to the bear's offense Which has been getting better of late Across the first four games the bear's passing offense underperformed expectations on early downs in a massive way Expectations here meaning compared to the team they were facing Based on matchup their best showing was underperforming expectations by point one five Net expected points per drop back awful awful stuff Here the four games since then They were at plus point one eight. They were at negative point three one. So that's a dud Plus point oh two and plus point oh nine So they've over performed expectations three of the past four games in those games the bears have scored 22 or more points Three times and their opponents scored at least 29 twice Average total in those games is 48.75 and that's with a 19 point clunker in the mix So they've been a lot more shootout friendly of late They have still been running a lot. They're only down first half pass rate is 46.5 percent, which is low But that is up from 38.1 percent the first four weeks As a result Justin Fields averaging 23 pass attempts per game. That's not a huge number, but it's better than it was Darnell mooney 60.8 receiving yards per game in this stretch He had 94 the game before that as well not counting that because it's not one of this trend But if you were to cherry pick you could make that number better. I don't want to do that So it does seem like mooney has a path yardage upside which is to me at least surprising I do think mooney is getting enough volume to be in play at 61 I don't want to touch the backfield But I think mooney's at least interesting. I think that Fields is a consideration um, so Is this getting too high on the bearers offense and their ability to make this game fun Do you think this game is a pivot as a potential game stack or what's you read this one? um I think I think it's more about Making this game more viable for the dolphins sure and not fearing as much that it's going to be a complete Like time suck of a game. Um in that sample I have the bearer said pass rate over expectation of minus 16.3 That ranks them 30th in that split, but they are 12th in pace I I think Justin Fields is in the consideration set, but I don't know look we want rushing quarterbacks But we want rushing quarterbacks who have like Average or better passing and then the rushing. Yeah, he doesn't have the average or better passing Like you still need yard because yardage is so passing guards are so That's such a low point total that like you need a lot of them or you need multiple touchdowns So I don't really know what is like true three three passing touchdown upside is it seems almost like zero So even if he gets a hundred yards in the ground doesn't score Like that's a cap ceiling. So I don't know if I'm there with fields ultimately. I see the case for it Yeah, and a true shootout, but yeah, I think what what we're getting at And I'm supporting this, you know, doesn't maybe sound like it Is that it's a better environment for the dolphin side than I would have thought initially Yeah, I think that's format two if the wind does stay at 13 miles per hour. I will downgrade it because Full respect to what he's done this year. He's been awesome And I like to a lot coming out of the draft. So it's been fun to watch and play well I do have concerns about his arm strength in a game with wind And I think that's an okay concern to have personally So if the wind stays up, I'll downgrade them. But for right now I I think that this like if I'm looking like as a game that could be Less Less obvious for game stacks that I might want to turn to to pivot away from the ones with flaws This would probably be number two behind Jags Raiders Oh, yeah, if that's if that's the question that's that's where I am with this one, but you know, then we're getting into It's a 10 game slate With the three that are in the bookmaker section Jags Raiders. This is like number five. I don't know if we have to dig down that far to get Maybe getting a little too cute. I think I would dig down there because I have such big concerns about the top three If I think that roster rates will be concentrated on those three I think I'd rather pivot and I think these be the first two games I pivot to personally Like I could see a lineup where I just fade those games and go with Lawrence that quarterback a mini stack here and stuff like that Yeah, we're gonna be really high on uh, I know but I'm okay with that I'm fine with that personally. Let's let's burn together. Let's move to your second trend and talk about the Bengals because We talked about them on monday. It's potentially being viable here against carolina But then they dropped a deuce. Uh, so what are you seeing with them with no jamar chase in the fold? Yeah, um Don't know how long chase will be out exactly. He's not going to go to ir but Look, we talk about this a lot Whenever you take a star player off the field or at least a very relevant player Yeah, it might open up volume, but it's going to decrease efficiency Especially for someone like chase and we're not we're not film guys But I've seen enough film to know that teams are more worried about jamar chase than tea higgins I think that jamar chase is good. I was like, yes, I agree. I've seen the film. Trust me guys. He's jamar chase is okay This guy's got some talent. I don't mean to break any news to you, but jamar chase is okay Good football player um, but it's very clear that We love tea and this is not a swipe at tea, but he's Very helped out by the fact that teams are concerned about jamar chase tea though It was like a his touchdown on monday night was like courtland sotten asked where he's like, look, I'm just I'll go do it if I have to like if this is what it takes i'm going to do it because he has that ability So it's like a knock on tea, but We got a downgrade expectations. Um, his uh, joe borough is passing that expected points per drop back on monday night was a minus 0.16 against Not a threatening past defense necessarily He had a 5.9 or an eight odd The overall like yardage and stuff and touchdowns were decent with 232 and 2 but again What like 40 of that came on a tea higgins like i'll i'll take it from here joe like thanks But he had a 12.5 percent sack rate It's tough He has the highest pressure to sack rate conversion allowed of any quarterback in football Like that's a problem now carolina is just 24th in just the past defense their second in rush Adjusted rush defense. So they're a funnel defense if we all remember that term for whenever that was a craze They're also just 14th in pressure rate, but I think joe borough has never met pressure that he So I don't think we should like panic based on what we saw on monday night But I also don't think that we should feel great necessarily and the salaries are up on these guys Notably joe mixon did lead the team with nine targets. I was 27 percent T Higgins had six for 18 percent Tyler Boyd 15 percent target share boy though for downfield targets, which for me is 10 yards downfield or longer His eight was 11.5 yards. I think that's pretty fun at 6900. I think Tyler Boyd is the most likely bingo I will get to T 8000 he still has he has that path to putting up enough points that it's We should have been there But I don't necessarily know that it's a priority joe mixon good role still but at a certain point like He continues to underperform with his opportunities. He's at a minus 0.42 rushing yards over expectation per carry success rate of 36 percent If I loved this game had no issues with it, I'd like joe mixons though But at 81 I don't know if he's going to be in my top five or six. So probably not going to get there personally so This could be one of those where We you know, like you said, they haven't solved a thing fade the Fade the highlights fade the public sentiment of the short week. They didn't look great They come out joe borough puts up four touchdowns in 400 yards. I think you could do it Tyler Boyd's a good football player T Higgins is great Joe mixon can do stuff out of the backfield, but personally, I don't think I'm there As a priority, I think this is one offense too many for me to really build around this week Yeah, I think for me too And I think that part of it is because we talked about this a couple weeks ago where The Bengals offense was really bad in the games where T Higgins left early due to injury And now you take away like you said like they're 1a versus they're 1b and it's going to get worse And so like I feel like because we've seen it now three games this year where their offense is cratered When one of those guys has been hurt that's enough where I'm okay being lower on them With mixon like it's tough because like you said the workload is good like I have a sheet that I tweet out each week that is like each running backs workload. They're most relevant sample Mixon because I use conditional formatting because I'm not a monster Um is green in opportunities per game. He is Kind of light red in yards per game 80.8 yards per game from skirmish. That's nuts. How bad that is 38.2 red zone share is fine Um, I love the targets last week, but he's not doing anything with them Like they're not breeze hall targets. They're not awesome. Eckler targets. They're not creative as much. So I want to like mixon 81, but I had to talk myself into him and I don't Honestly where I have guys like etn jones others. I don't want to talk myself into anyone So like I think I'd rather just keep a tight core than expand to a guy like mixon I think the boyd is good. But like chris godwin or taylor boyd for you Uh godwin Okay, I agree. Uh amonra st. brown or taylor boyd Amonra, baby, uh gape davis or taylor boyd Boyd I think that's that could go either way. I think the other ones I feel pretty definitively in I prefer that one in amonra. That one is uh depends on the contest i'm playing If you're in a Any kind if you're in a cash game you go boyd 10 times out of 10 If you are in any tournament that has a top heavy payout structure. Give me game debate I agree with that. Okay. Let's finish up here the trend discussion. Uh and talk about the bucks and rams and their offenses because Preseason this game would have looked fun. Now it looks awful. Uh, yeah, they put this one on an island basically at four o'clock 425 they they thought this was the can't miss game They gave us double barrel middle fingers You know what? I deserve it. It's fair. I get it. Um It looks bad. Uh, both these offenses stink, but they're underwhelming in different ways The bucks are still efficient early downs like they're still good early downs after adjusting for opponents They rank eighth in adjusted early down efficiency They're sixth passing and it basically abandoned the rush although Todd bolstered. They kind of want to reestablish it Should you should you when you're as bad as you are? They've had 233 early down passes the past six games versus 85 rushes So a 73 percent pass rate overall on early downs. So they're good early downs But hideous on late downs Their opponent adjusted success rate on late downs ranks 28 ahead of carolina houston denver and new england They bad it could mean they're due for regression or they could just suck That's very possible. The rams are the exact opposite 30th annoying down efficiency ahead of just the texans and patriots The patriots are bad and both, huh? Uh, but they're third on late downs behind just the raiders and bills. Why are the raiders good? Don't know great question They're third down catalyst cooper cup Should play but he's now banged up. I'm having a hard time getting jazba anybody on the rams including cup But the bucks I can be more into as mentioned. They're throwing at a high rate. They're still decently efficient Their passing offense is ranked 10th in early down efficiency They're 18th in a late down success rate Or sorry, the rams defense, I should say. Uh, so it's not like a match up. We had to fear necessarily They're they're fine, but they're not we need to fear The obvious piece here is when we highlighted on monday chris godwin salary of 67 23 target share since returning 10.4 targets per game Not getting a ton of high leverage work, but he's shown yardage upside via the volume Mike evans 21 target share with 53 of the deep work He's also a bit more likely to avoid gil and ramsey given how often ramsey lines up in the slot But the salary for evans higher at 77 With lender for not, I don't know you can figure out Lenny for me. I don't know I do he had he's had a hundred plus yards in scrimmage three times But he's been under 75 and all the others Boomer bust and like the bust the boom is not that great His red zone rule is also taking a hit this year. So I'm likely to be low on four net Whether that burns me or not, but what's a read on I think we just like dislike the rams. So what's a read on the bucks in this game? Yeah, it's tough. I was trying to dig into The matchup situation exactly Due to like who's gonna avoid jaylin ramsey pro football focus expects that God will see the most of ramsey despite the fact that ramsey's been in a slot on just 26 of his presnap routes That's a bit of a concern but Look, we love mike evans and we historically have loved mike evans on this podcast, but he's like Fancy game davis or something. Well, if he's shadowed, he's done Like he's done Yeah But that's why I'm I'm comforted by the fact that ramsey's more likely to be on godwin Yeah, so I mean it's possible godwin's a trap. I do think that the volume Yeah, I don't I don't worry too much about godwin. Honestly. I think the salary is low enough where I think even if ramsey's there who cares Like I think it's fine. The volume at salary is just hard to ignore Evans, I don't think I'll get there it Would you say 77? It's pretty high. Yeah, that's high like at that rate Like evans or locket slash mech calf Locket or mech calf evans or jalen waddle at e2. That's a Actually, no, I'd rather go evans there. I think actually I think I'd go evans evans or tea evans I feel pretty good with evans there, but I just don't think I'll be in this range that much if I am I'll be with mech calf and locket. That's the thing is yeah We talked a while ago with uh getting getting those guys in it's going to be a a different lineup built from what's normal Uh, what about lenny? Yeah So you said earlier that it drops off after foreman and I agree with that but then Fortnite is the one guy in that range Who has some appeal? Single digit carries the past two games. You don't love that and just the three targets. So the workload's not great It has the potential to be better trying to think of a good comp of like I don't know put words in your mouth, but I think you caught him like devon singletary ask A couple weeks ago. Yeah, it's not that different. It's it's a bit better than that. His ceiling is better, but he has It's kind of hollow. Yeah. Yeah, so He would be game stacks only and I'm not going to stack this game. So Yeah, I think that's probably I need to cut off somewhere and I think I'm okay cutting off with him Uh, whether for this week actually there is a lot of wind uh 13 miles per hour in Chicago for the bears and the dolphins That's the worst one as of right now Oh check back on that because again, I think it does kind of matter uh with Tua Uh wind speeds 11 miles per hour in Jacksonville for the Jags and the Raiders That's high enough to be of no time not high enough to be concerning yet But check back on that 12 miles per hour for my alec pierce chairs in new england, uh for patriots and colts We're not actually using anybody there outside of navy deon. You know, there's no wind In a dome for who is the person I was betting against? Oh, yeah Uh 10 mile per hour winds in New Jersey for the jets and the bills Don't care for josh allen and then 11 10 miles per hour is like well below his average if I had to guess For wind speeds 11 miles per hour in Tampa for the bucks and the rands So check back on those later nothing red flaggy yet except for uh, dolphins bears Maybe that'll go down though. Let's go now position by position and break down our favorite plays on fan dual four this week Brandon at quarterback. Who are you zeroing in on? So a quick caveat that I want to play josh allen if I can But I think that's all like obvious not just I don't know if he's in your loves But yes, he's worth talking about in detail, but he's my number one if I can get there But I don't know if I can get there in every lineup. So I like Kyler Murray this week 82 we're going to go back there again. Uh, and there's two games with the under hopkins He's averaging 265 passing yards in two touchdowns Average efficiency also six carries per game for 33 and a half yards. Seattle not a great adjusted past defense I know it's a second time around matchup, but I'm actually less worried about the Arizona offense because they get such an impactful wrinkle thrown in here with hopkins So I'm good with that and my second love. So technically third love behind allen Number one is trevor lorenza 68 We laid out the the case for him in detail already But the later the raiders have also led up 229 plus passing yards in every game this year the 229 was uh last week Whenever they just got demolished So and that was Andy Dalton. So like it's really hard to uh, anticipate a horrible game efficiency wise from lorenza The raiders have allowed uh, they fell with just two passes below league average in a single game in terms of efficiency. So Seems like it's a good spot. I am asking you this only because I think people might ask this But you're okay with lorenza 88 in the same lineup, correct? Correct. Cool. I am as well my first love is josh allen because I think we just need that upside It is a big divisional game. So although It's a 12 and a half point spread the jets are just a game and a half out in the asc east Like the bills actually do need this game The defense the jets isn't bad, but that might keep things a bit more competitive, which isn't a bad thing $93 is doable if you're willing to roster some lower salary receivers of tight ends Which I am so I think that I can get there with josh allen. My second love is trevor lorenza The jags rank fourth and projected offensive efficiency by my numbers again, I mentioned that before in large part due to the matchup, but Defense is actually down weighted in that equation. So it's not over accounting I don't think for how bad the raiders defense is lorenz Like you said has played well in plus matchups this year There aren't a ton of guys in the mid-range who can burn me a quarterback So I think having lorenza 68 makes a lot of sense It allows me to get to some really fun pieces and I'll take that for sure this week Going to running back. What do you like there? I'm gonna start off with erin jones at 78 the role has been a bit up and down But last week the the packers committed to the run. He had twice as many carries as a j dylan Target gap of five to one on four more routes. Detroit horrible against running backs 30 or third worse And rushing I expect the points per carry rushing success rate and adjusted fandal points per carry Allowed to running backs and also 23rd and adjusted fandal points per target. So Hard to draw one up any better than that second love travis etn 24 carries 156 yards last week 107 expected rushing yards. So like You want guys who overperform and he did but that's also like Pretty solid there 86 reds and rushing share three targets over half the routes Again, hard to find a much better role than that in 2022 for running back The raiders are decent against the rush based on my numbers But not not against receivers out of the backfield So I think etn and jones are just the the two guys. I'm gonna have the most exposure to all things considered And then my third love is going to be raheem mostert at 65 He really helps me get to josh allen who again is technically my favorite quarterback play and the guy I'm trying to get to and just like Cash games and single entries. I think the top side is worth it. It's easy to overlook him based on the down game last week, but Uh, 42 percent first half snap rate because he got Dinged up but ended up playing 85 of the snaps in the second half No chase admins jeff wilson is not he's not historically been receiving back. So There might be some goal line concerns, but I think that also kind of helps mostert be more cemented in getting some extra targets Yeah, I think that mostert is fine. Like I said, I think the reason that that You know, we have Aaron jones and trevis etn is being like the firm plays Mostert it's kind of like with the rest like he's right there and I think that's enough at 60 He's like be bible. He's a collateral to get to josh allen Yeah, exactly And I would also say that if deon jackson we get him without jonathan taylor just go nuts go crazy there The only difference we had I have erin jones and etn in mind as well. I have josh Jacobs here I wanted to talk about him a bit more and why I like him He's the most attractive exposure to this game on the raider side. He's averaging 118.3 yards per game this season That includes the entire year. He's had 150 plus yards three separate times Bananas upside The jags ranked 21st against the run by my number. So Jacobs at 88 That's kind of the fun thing about laurence is you can get to Jacobs etn erin jones and still not spend below 63 at receiver That makes laurence really fun So I want to get to Jacobs and just stack the daylights out of that game and probably regret it But what could go wrong? So that's where i'm looking again Deon jackson the other guy to consider at running back if we get him without taylor He would be the number one love for me even above etn. Otherwise etn for sure receiver. What you're looking at there? uh again There's a lot of guys who can burn us But I think alman rossian brown is a great place to start lineups at 7100 Return to good usage with 10 targets, which was 28 just 69 yards, which is is nice But maybe not super nice on 10 targets But two downfield targets 26 waited target shared 95 of the routes The lions definitely seem hesitant to give deon jackson with a lot of work right now That should be good for st. Brown's usage also no tg hawkinson I feel like the upside for alman rossian brown is not fully accounted for at this salary. He has not scored since his second game No hawkinson might mean that he's a bit more involved In the red zone, I just think that he can erupt at 7100 and I want to be there Second love chris godwin. Uh, he was an instant write down for us on monday show at 67 He's got double digit targets in four of his past five games In four games in which he and mike evans played at least 50 of the snaps Godwin actually leads with a 26 target share in 11 and a half targets per game 3.3 downfield targets per game 1.3 in the red zone You know, you can look at the the market shares, but this team is Pretty past heavy and I think that matters too. Uh, it's just sort of a pick and choose based on the team Third love I've lowered this a bit throughout the show, but romeo dobs at 6100 Just the it's such a good matchup The lions are allowing 2.05 yards per route run to opposing receivers, which is like a good number for a individual receiver Like Dobs 88% of the routes last week, uh, he's been involved week after week. I don't think he's that sensitive to Uh, the the the return potential return of alan zard I think I'd probably need to figure out the 56 ish range and courtesy mo drake london and zay jones Definitely on the on the cusp Yeah, I think that, uh I think dobs is fine. Just he makes me really nervous. Um, I have godwin in my loss as well I think that he is someone I just need to get to 67 10.4 targets per game. I think that like I don't typically Have a receiver as one of the first players I put in for a cash game He'll probably be one of the first guys I plug in for our head-to-head on sunday Just because I think the production or the the usage is too good With the way they're playing football right now being as pass heavy as they are to pass up chris godwin My second love is a guy we have not discussed much, but it's josh palmar. He's been super disappointing so far this year, but I'm not sure if you can disappoint against atlanta. If there's no mike will there's no keenin There's no a.j. Turrell most likely um, no hayward. So like for 62 He might test this theory, but I don't think he can be that bad So I do like josh palmar 62 as being an option. I prefer christian kirk By a wide margin, but I can't get kirk in every lineup. So I might have both I think the palmar is someone we have not discussed enough. I think he's in play this week My third love is zay jones. I prefer kirk if I can get there, but if I need a salary saver I think zay is my favorite option He's had double digit targets twice so far this year. He has a 21 target share across his seven games He has a 26 share inside the red zone, but as just one touchdown so far I think there is some positive regression potentially coming. So if I can't get to kirk. I think kirk is Better for my laurence stacks because I can get there But in my josh allen lineups, I'm more likely to have zay jones just because I need the salary savings So prefer kirk, but we'll take the savings on jones when I need them most and in your josh jacob's lineups Yes, that's very very good point to although if I use laurence, I can use both kirk and jacob's and etn It's great, uh tight end. What are you looking at there? another potential option in those stacks evan engram Uh, they're facing the the 31st ranked adjusted past defense Uh, vegas is last in adjusted vandal points per target allowed to tight ends Engram has a 20 percent plus target share in three of his past four games There's really no fear of true eruptions this week at tight end. So I'm good with that Second love probably my first love, but we list them by salary always, uh, robert tonion sort of a similar case with doves where It's kind of hardware to envision where he'll completely disappoint unless green bade throws 10 times Which is a bit aggressive even if they're run heavy Uh, detroit 31st and adjusted vandal points per target allowed to tight ends Uh, they also allow the a leak high target per route rate to tight ends, which Will depend on who you're playing against but at a certain point probably shows something about your defense too Yeah, I have tonion is one of my loves too. Um, the role has been a little better recently I think that's intriguing. I do love the matchup. He's low soured exposure to a team that is Pretty frustrating if i'm going to go at that situation I'd rather get there with uh less salary allocated and Tonion allows me to do that. Um, so I would say he's pretty attractive as well You think the engram is like I probably made fun of you. I did make fun of you for I'm talking about Oh, yeah, you've made fun of me numerous times for discussing Evan engram over the years Times. Oh, yeah, over the years. It's terrible. Like, you know, I don't think that that's that egregious. Um, but like I'm pulling up yards per route run right now Where is he? Oh, I'm scrolling more than I thought I would. Oh boy. Okay. So he's at 1.4 yards per route run um, which is about average for a tight end but Average on this slate is probably okay 52. So I think he's fine My other guy mentioned here. My loves is gerald everett's uh, potentially no mike williams or keenon allen He has a 15 target share this year with at least one of those guys playing in every game so far with a 19 share inside the red zone It's a great match up at 58. I Typically and vehemently ante gerald everett, but this week i'll use him and i'm probably going to regret it But whatever, um Maybe I'd like engram more. I'm not sure. I think engram is pretty okay I know you can be right. It's fine. I can admit that you're right sometimes accidentally first time in six years again Check check roster rates if you have access to them Um on kyle pits because if he's not going to be super popular, I think he will be but if he's not I'd like him so check back on that as well Defense your favorite what you got I always try to find a different one from you, but I couldn't My model likes miami too much to recommend anyone else's the top play. Um winds up Justin Fields is a 5.3 turn over worthy play rate according to provable focus It's the highest of any qualified quarterback to a second by the way just making various defenses 3000 I thought about that Fields the second highest pressure to sacri conversion allowed on the slate Joe burrow number one there you do see higher average wind speeds in Defenses that wind up in perfect lineups than others So I think that chicago is at least in play at three thousand if the wind stays high I think that miami's my favorite. They're my love as well at 36, but I think that they're in play For that other defenses to consider i'm trying to find other ones like Nothing really jumped out at least in the range that we We don't spend up for defenses Do you consider the commanders in a revenge game against kirk cousins? Like is it a because I feel like it's not really like he played well for them So I can't consider a commander's revenge game just a kirk revenge game Um, they they're like decent, but yeah Nothing jumps out aside from miami Could you can could you consider carolina 33? I thought about it, but no Um, I thought I did give it thought though because like it's brian burns against a terrible offensive line and Joe burrow It takes acts so like I think there's there's merit to it. I don't think I'll get there, but there's merit to it I would also say that's the seattle in arizona defenses are both at least viable would prefer seattle because they've been playing pretty well recently and Kyler can do some dumb stuff But I don't want to use a defense against gino because that feels rude and wrong But I can use a defense against kyler. That's fine Also green based defense is 41 Yeah I would use them as well Alrighty any final words of wisdom before we send off the good people to construct They're profitable fan dual lineups week number nine A lot of different ways you can go jim and I are pretty aligned Which has sort of happened a lot recently, but You know, you might be sitting there saying why are these guys not talking about like just jefferson or staphon diggs or tyreek more Or like why we're not prioritizing dhondra hopkins like I get it it's just not the way that we're viewing the slate but If that's how you see it all the power to you And I will get to them if I can use deon jackson. Yeah, that's the thing that popped into my head too jt rest out We'll talk to you week 10 or whatever, you know, just get that ankle healthy But you know, we want we want the best for you and we want you to rest So I think that's a key thing for this week That's all we got here for the week nine preview show Our recap show will be live on the fandal youtube page 10 a.m Eastern on monday and also up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast We'd after that so get that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe Anything like what you hear the list a rating and review as well branded if people have questions for you on twitter Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter acadol 13 gdu la 13 And I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your dfs slot this week number nine We'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap it all up. 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