 Hello everyone, welcome to another IAR capsule for Shankar IAS Academy. I think we have discussed the Russia-Ukraine war so often that people seem to have developed some kind of an Ukraine fatigue. It is this case with me too, but since the war is continuing and there is no sign of any end in sight, I thought I would look at it from the perspective of what is new about this war. How is this war different from others? And that will be what we will be discussing today. So even though you may have had enough of Ukraine, it may be worthwhile for us to look at this phenomenon of this new war to see how is it different from other wars and why it is more difficult to resolve it. The very fact that people seem to have lost interest, at least the Indian media seems to have lost interest after we repatriated our nationalists from Ukraine. Till then, there was a lot of news everywhere in the media and after they have all come back as well as India is concerned, the war seems to have ended. But the truth of the matter is it has just begun. It's about the month, but there is no nothing in sight to see a resolution of the conflict. And this is extremely dangerous because a conflict like that, which gets extended for months and years, can hurt not only the countries concerned, but also the global economy itself. And that's a danger that we have to face and we cannot ignore this war as something taking place far away from our homeland. Actually, it's only a three hours flight from New Delhi to Kiev. So they are pretty close, closer than Chennai from Delhi. So this is going to be of some significance to us. And so it may be worthwhile to look at it from this perspective as to how is it different. And in my view, this is a war like no other because at no time in history, there has been a war between two countries. Or there has been no invasion of one country against the other. When the second country is in no position to offer any of the conditions that the invading country is seeking. Because Ukraine is a country which is much smaller. They have a good relationship. They have a good relationship with Russia. There are several Russians in Ukraine. And but at the same time, both Russia and Ukraine had some concerns about their security. That is how the story began. Mr. Putin felt that he needed some security guarantees from the United States as well as NATO so that Russia is not threatened by the arrival of NATO troops at their doorstep. This may be a legitimate concern. But that is not something that Ukraine can provide. And that security guarantee can only be provided by NATO and the United States. And they are not in the war. This is the most important difference between this war and many others that you have seen. When the Russians amassed troops on the borders with Ukraine, we should remember that this happened soon after Ukraine and United States signed an agreement of friendship and cooperation. It's called some kind of a charter. And that was in November 2021. And that is the very same time that Mr. Putin started amassing troops on the border. This was quickly noticed. And many people were concerned. And the Western countries alerted people to this phenomenon. And President Biden kept insisting that there would be an invasion by Russians into Ukraine. But Ukraine itself said that they were not going to invade unless there is, unless Ukraine joins NATO. There was no chance of Ukraine joining NATO at that time. And then he expanded his objectives by saying that he wants security for the Donbass region. He wanted Ukraine to be demilitarized, de-naxified. Then he started saying that Soviet Union collapsed because of the mistakes of the communist leaders. And therefore he has to set it right and so on. So it is different from other wars because the objectives are not very clearly spelled out. It ranges from a simple assurance of security for Russia to bringing back the glamour and glory of the Soviet Union. I don't think any war has been started with this kind of objectives in the past. The decision of the US and NATO to fight a war with sanctions alone is another feature of this war. I don't think there has been any war in the world where one party has decided not to fight with weapons because Ukraine is fighting with Ukraine is not the other party. The other party is United States and NATO. And they could have easily entered the war by saying that yes, this is a war against us. But they deliberately kept out of it and said that we'll fight it with sanctions. This gave us some kind of a relief and the world was a bit consoled by the fact that there was not going to be a world war between the Titans. But when the extent of these sanctions were released, it appeared as though this was going to be more serious. Maybe its implications for the countries concerned or involved may be narrow because there will be no destruction etc. But the implications of these sanctions went beyond what is called CATSA that is the United States law to counter adversaries by sanctions. The kind of sanctions imposed by NATO and the United States on Russia are unprecedented and they are hurting not only Russia and Ukraine but also NATO countries themselves and the United States because Russia is not Iran or Cuba against whom you can have sanctions and forget about it. But Russia is a major energy supplier not only to others but also to the West Europeans themselves and the kind of restrictions like no over flights, no bank accounts, no collaboration in technology. All these have become much stronger than ever before. So the fact that it is simply a sanctions war does not give us any comfort. The next point about the uniqueness of this war is that the first major war being fought on the internet because the internet was not so developed before. So this is a new phenomenon because internet provides the opportunity for propaganda and counter-propaganda. And here Russia has suffered because there are already sanctions against communication satellites and Western media have moved out of Russia and so on and therefore the war has become very unbalanced because most of us know our news from Western news media and not only are Russian radio and television not available to other people but also there is hardly any news coming out of there except official releases etc which come from the Russian government. So this angle is also rather important when we look at the war and how it is moving. But you also know that President Putin at one stage talked about nuclear war because he said he was asking his nuclear forces to be in readiness. Of course he added that it is for defense but that also happened. So if there is a nuclear war in this context it will be the first war against sanctions that would happen. Of course there have been many wars attributed to say a single individual you know we can identify a particular person who was solely responsible for one war or the other including the big wars. But in this particular case there is no news of who are advising President Putin. That must be because there is a Politburo, there is a foreign minister etc etc but nobody else seems to speak except Mr. Lavrov occasionally and all decisions seem to come from one individual. Normally there should be a Politburo, visible Politburo. There could also be generals who play a big role who would be visible. But in this case at least I have not seen any information who the advisors of President Putin in this in his war rule. Is he alone there? And this seems to create some concern because after all President Putin was a KGB official, secret police official and his mindset is similar to those spies encounter spies and so on. So if it is left to one individual to take decisions will it be able to, will the situation be controlled? And people say that the war is being fought in the minds of President Putin, a mind which many people do not understand and therefore this war has become more complicated. So since this is an exceptional war the conclusion will have to be exceptional also. We cannot think in terms of two parties sitting together and resolving it because even if President Putin sits with President Zelensky, there is nothing that Mr. Zelensky can offer in terms of satisfying the demands of President Putin and President Biden was at one time willing to talk to him but he did not agree. Now of course President Biden is going to Poland to meet with NATO. I don't know whether NATO and Mr. Biden will decide to go across to Moscow and talk. It would be very nice but it does not appear to be so because the objectives of the war are still very vague and unclear. So today the war is as meaningless as it was on 24th February when President Putin felt compelled to invade Ukraine. So there are also other unique features. All of us know about the story of David and Goliath. A young small person is confronting a huge monster and suddenly David becomes the hero when he is able to combat the monster. This is the legend of the fairy tale. But here it appeared after about three or four days it appeared that David is growing bigger and bigger and become a threat to the Goliaths. So this is again a new feature because the Blitzkrieg that Putin had planned to capture a few days did not work out and this is again another another feature. And so now the underdog has become a valiant fighter and he is fighting as though he is unconcerned about his own life or the future. But ironically he gets attention from the rest of the world. Has it ever happened in the history of wars that a leader, a president of a country fighting the war, gets access to foreign parliaments and gets standing ovations? This is not something which has happened in any of the other worlds. So this kind of access that he is getting is also something new in history. So what is the conclusion that we can reach? That we can reach the conclusion that this is no ordinary war. This is a war aimed at changing the post-second world war world order into something which the initiator of the war itself is not clear about. And therefore this can be called the birth pangs of a new world order which we have not witnessed before. So the likelihood of the emergence of a powerful authoritarian leadership consisting of Russia and China cannot be ruled out in this particular context. So therefore we cannot be sure that the western countries will continue to remain as they are now or whether they would enter the war in order to deny Russia and China a predominance in the world. And this of course would be a major danger to the world itself. So there is the choices are unprecedented. What can each country do? China started with an alliance with Russia when the Russian president went to Beijing for the Winter Olympics and they agreed that there will be a no-limits alliance between them. In other words, they will cooperate with each other. They will consider themselves military allies, you know, strategic allies, etc. But as days pass, you can notice that there is a certain dilution of the Chinese commitment to Russia. This is because they are not very sure about Russia winning this war and they would not be on the side of someone who is likely to lose the war. So that may be one reason. The other reason may be that China is looking at this war as a rehearsal for a war on Taiwan because in Beijing, Russia agreed to support China on Taiwan and China agreed to support Russia on Ukraine. So China has to be very careful as to how this war goes. If this war doesn't go well, obviously, they will have to think twice before they decide what to do with Taiwan. So they are determined to bring Taiwan back to the motherland as it were. But the position of the United States and other allies is such that it may not be possible to fight the war. Is it a similar situation which Russia is facing? And that is something which China is concerned about. And China spoke to President Biden about this possibility. We did talk about Taiwan, not only about Ukraine. And he warned President Biden that any kind of ideas on the path of the West to resist any invasion of Taiwan are to be very dangerous. He said some people are expressing this. And therefore, there is a room for exploring how the Taiwan situation will develop. And therefore, China has become somewhat diluted. China seems to believe also that Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot and launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore an unminable situation. Some Chinese analysts are already saying that Putin has made a mistake. And it may not be easy for Putin to come out of this victorious. So one of the Chinese observers said that Putin's best option is to end the war recently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to attain on the conference table. This is a Chinese view. India, as I said, we seem to have happily ended the war by bringing our 26,000 Indians or whatever. So it's a very tough action and difficult not only logistically, but also diplomatically. Prime Minister spoke to President Putin twice. And he got the opportunity also to talk about the war. And he also worked in touch with other world leaders to make sure that everyone comes back safe. So except for one person who was short dead and another person who fell sick, or everybody else came back in one piece, even though they went through tremendous agony for some time. But that is not enough as far as India is concerned. We do not know whether we can play a role, but certainly we have to be conscious of what we are doing. I think there is considerable pressure on India to dilute our abstention. Our abstention on the UN Security Council resolution was very well thought out. We have major interests in Russia, major interest in the United States. We are members of the Quad. China is occupying part of our territory. All these factors, when they put into the computer, the answer which came out was abstention, which we did. But now, questions are being raised about India's democratic credentials. Who are we supporting? What are the principles of non-intervention and non-interference, etc., etc., which are the founding corners of the non-aligned movement? All these questions are being raised. And if it is going to be a fight between autocracy and democracy, where is India going to stand? So I'm not suggesting that we are changing our policy. But there are questions. Like, for example, we recently bought oil with constitutional rates from Russia. That was a direct challenge of the western position. But the west has not reacted too much to it, because probably they understand the situation. So the biggest challenge that India is facing today is different from what it was earlier. And I'm sure we must be deeply thinking about it. We must be in touch with the Americans. Some of the statements have come from the US, suggesting that they're still discussing, insistently discussing the side, but they're still not happy. At the same time, they are not used in any strong words, knowing very well that India's its own concerns. But there must be deep thinking in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the Prime Minister's office about India's position. So in all these ways, and just identifying for the sake of our friends who are taking an examination of a very significant kind, to be aware of these additional points in their examination. I don't know what you'll figure in the examination, but certainly this war will figure. And the more new points that you can bring to your answer, the better it will be for you. And that was the reason why I spoke about the unique features of the Russia-Ukraine war. Thank you.