 Sign up today. The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes. 877-927-6648. Or internationally at 727-873-7618. The Trader's Edge. Now Steve Rhodes. Good afternoon folks. Welcome to the April 29th, the wonderful Wednesday edition of today's Trader's Edge show. I'm your host, Steve B. Perseverance. Rhodes who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past. Well, everyone out there is having a great day. Hey, let's make sure we have an extraordinary one. And the easiest way to do that is to always remember that life is happening for us. Not to us. That's right. When you and I make that one little two by four shift, it means we can find the gift. And every set of circumstance, that life is going to toss at us. Now today, you and I, we're going to go check on the circumstance of these markets. We're going to go figure out what those bulls and bears, what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I just passed one o'clock in the afternoon. I want you to know that I'm absolutely grateful for your presence here, but much more important than that. During this next 16 minutes, I'm here to serve you. So feel free to pick up that phone. You can dial on in at 877-927-664 or if you can't dial in, we've got you covered there too. Let those fingers do the walking. Go ahead, send me an email Steve at tfn.com. Inside the subject heading, please put radio show question in our Tiger's Den. Well, any ping will do. So let's go ahead and get this show started on wonderful Wednesday. Of course, this is Tiger Financial News Network. I'm Steve Rhodes. Welcome to the show right now. We've got the Dow. Let me get the screen out here. There we go. We've got all the indices in the green out here. The Dow is up by 639 points. That's two and seven tenths percent to the upside. 24, 741 is the print. The S&P is up 3 percent. The NDX 100 up three and three tenths percent. The Russell up five and a half percent out there. So there's winners across the board. Spot volatility index is off two bucks trading out at 3155. Gold's off $9. Silver is up one penny. Light's we cruise up $3.43. That is a nearly a 28 percent move to the upside. Natural gas pulling back a bit. And Treasury bonds basically flat out there. Let's go to our first caller. It's Brent in Martinez, California. Brent, thanks for calling. Thanks for holding. How are you today? Oh, I'm doing just fine, Steve. I hope you're doing well. I am. I am. Thanks so much. So U.S. Steel is on your mind, I believe. Yeah, we were talking about today and of course the clock was kind of running down and then I guess lost the connection. I mean, I got definitely and you were getting into it pretty thoroughly. I just wanted to try to complete what we're talking about. Absolutely. Absolutely. So let's go back to U.S. Steel folks. Let's get it up on the screen out here. We take a look at U.S. Steel right now trading out at 815. It is above the top of its daily profile. So that's bullish. It's in between its weekly profile. Now the next target level of resistance for you, Brent, is going to be 988. And take a look at the weekly time frame chart. Now we'll come back and take a look at the daily. There was a level on the daily chart that price needed to close above or move above. And that's under attack today. That would give you a price and close above this next level that I'll give you. That brings that 988 into play on that weekly time frame. The level on the daily that you're looking at is $7.99. We're trading at 814. At 799, folks, that is where price most recently broke down. That would, in essence, be if this were a countertrend rally where that should find resistance. So you'll want to watch obviously the end-of-day close out here. But any close above 799 says that what U.S. Steel should do is head up towards that resistance level of the weekly time frame, the top of that profile. I don't remember the number off the top of my head. If price can get above that Brent, then on the daily time frame, its next break down area is 1107. There's no topping patterns that are in play right now. We take a look at the daily time frame, just resistance, $7.99. As I take a look at the weekly time frame chart out here, it's got the profile level that we took a look at, $9.88. And above that, if price were to get above that, you've got a different level on the daily. On the weekly, the break down level would be $13.96. So in essence, that's what I see when I take a look at it. There's nothing here on the monthly, the monthly would tell you this. The monthly would say, if this is going to run out of steam, it's going to be at its red line. It's currently priced at 10.09, but that number is going to change as price moves upward down out here. But right now, everything looks good, and I just would continue to pay attention to $7.99 out there. Price to be able to close above that, then you know you've broken, you've got in essence a changing trend signal on US Steel. Yeah, the only potential snap through, they've got their earnings are coming up on Thursday after the bell. So that was one of the things I was kind of looking at. I think I just don't know about, you know, you can put a stop and doesn't mean it's going to, it could easily open the next day and just pass it by and stuff. Yes, it can. You know, most certainly coming up with an A to B equal CD pattern on this one is pretty tough to do because there really hasn't been much of a retracement out there. I mean, if I were going to draw something in, it would be probably this one here, my A point looks like March 16th might have been the low and then I'd probably use the high out here from April 9th and then just a few day pullback very shallow retracement into the yellow on April 15th. Well, it was a 36% retracement and the B point out here that I've used in the April 9th and that did about 20 million shares and as price was passing through that, well today you're at eight and a half million. That's interesting. So you do have light volume as it's taking out. What I would use as a B point of an A to B equal CD but, you know, if price can close above 799, you stick with it. You say that earnings might be tomorrow on Thursday? Is that what you said? They're after the market closes, I believe, yeah. Yeah. Well, you'd feel better if it had big volume behind it, but I mean the chart looks good. The chart looks good. Yeah, it's kind of one of those. It's a little, you know, mixed bag. I mean it looks positive at this point if that can continue. And again, I've been watching some of these earnings. I don't do a lot of fundamental stuff, but it seems to be that I think a lot of the, you know, negativity has been factored in. And so you just don't know how they're going to react. I've seen earnings are not that hot in the stock, seem to still be doing okay. I'm not, I'm not sure that's as big a concern as it might be, you know, under regular circumstances. So I'll keep an eye on it. I guess the main thing I wanted to have you take a look at, and I touched on some of those levels I need to be watching, and yet today we're above that one. Now, do you, on that 799, are you looking for a second day above that, or do you kind of... You'd like to see that. Yeah, you certainly would like to see a second day above that just to confirm that it's a real breakout above a key level of resistance out there. But there was a couple days ago Brent, when it gave you a nice bullish message. And that was when price was able to close above the top of its daily bearer structure profile. And that was on April 27th. And then you closed above it. Yesterday, obviously, you've got a third close above that. So that is also another area where if it's going to struggle, that 7.01 level should have been at. In fact, if let's just say that US Steel offers very disappointing news, however shareholders respond to whatever it is that they would say, the likely area of support on this, I would say would be about the $6.72 level. And that's the center of that bullish or bearer structured profile that price was able to get above. So I would say that would be your downside. I'm not saying that's where it's headed. That would likely be the downside area for it. Okay, all right. Thank you very much. Steve, I hear the music just again. Thank you very much. Have a great day. You bet. Thanks for calling. This is California. And that was US Steel. Ticker symbol X. Steve Rhodes with TF and N. We'll be right back. If you're not currently using the Taz Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The Taz Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, Taz understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted, the best way to use the Taz Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. All new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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Begin your Den membership today by just entering open at checkout and pay nothing while you try things out for 30 days. For all the details and to start your Den membership today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the TFNN Tiger's Den open house taking place now. Sign up today. All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. That was up 650 S&P is 87. Let's go out to Denver and speak with Ron. Ron, thanks for calling. Thanks for holding. How are you this morning? Great, Steve. Beautiful weather out here. It's finally got about 40 calls on ET and they expire May 8th. And I just wondered... You're breaking up a big deal. You would look at it and repeat that. How would I... I really couldn't hear anything. Is this resistance or should I say this is getting through and filling the gap? Okay, so ET is a ticker symbol that you're asking about. I think your question is... I've called it five, five and a half and six. Is that said again? I owned about 40 calls on five. Okay. So, I mean you've identified the area where this might struggle. And that is going to be that gap. And that's going to be the 859 area. The stock chart itself looks pretty good. So, what does Stevie mean by that? Let's come over here and take a look at the... And so, folks, first of all, that figure that I used, let me just come back in and take a look at that. This is where the stock had gap to the downside. So, the first level of resistance on March the night, this thing moves lower with 105 million shares basically. And right now, it's got 24 million shares as it's trading up into that area. So, it's not moving into that area with volume. And it may find... So, think about it like this, folks. Put your mindset... Right, this is about the ability to take the other side of the trade. So, put your mindset, there were 104 million shares where those shares that were purchased, folks thought that that was a good value. And that was between the price area of $7, $6.34 to $8.59. And how were they thinking on March 18th when price got down to $3.75? About a 50% hit. So, a lot of those traders, very possible, I did that little prayer deal with God where they said, please, if you just give me back some or all of my capital, I'll be happy to just exit. And so that really is, in essence, what you are potentially up against, Ron. And so that $8.59. I don't have a clue as to whether or not price will get through there, but let's go back to now the stock chart. I just wanted to explain to folks why I had shown that $8.59 area. When we look at the stock chart itself, it formed a real nice bottom, a little hammer bottom that was on bar number nine of a TD-9 count. So that's a nice thing. We don't see any kind of topping signal right now. Today will be bar number seven. You do know that this bar is eight, nine, or the bar following nine on that TD-9 count where you can't identify a top. So as price gets into that gap area, you could also be seeing a TD-9 count pattern on the daily timeframe. On the weekly timeframe, this also made a TD-9 count bottom out here. And price is right now above the top of its weekly profile. So that's good, which is at 744. And it's above Stevie's red line, which is good. And that just tells you it's going to deal with that gap. But these are nice bottoming signals out here. And, you know, it's going to make an attempt run to get through that gap. But can it? I don't know. If it can, then the target would be 1359. But I don't know if that'll make that target, even if they get through the gap. By the time your calls would expire out there. But so far, so good, you know, when I take a look at the chart patterns, but both you and I and everybody else who might also be in call positions recognize that that 859 area, you know, could be it, so to speak. Or at least where you start to begin to see a pullback. Okay. Well, fundamentally, it goes next Wednesday, and it's a big dividend, around 32 cents for the quarter. Okay. And I don't know if some institutions will buy it to get that dividend. I think they will. We'll find out. Well, you're above nice resistance levels on the daily and the weekly about to head into another one, which is about 53 cents away from our screen right now. I'm going to take some out there from that ring. Thank you very, very much. Appreciate that. You bet. Thanks so much for calling. That was Ron. Yep. Yep. That was Ron in Denver. Tarpen 2 and the Tigers down, let's take a look at ticker symbol CACC. So let's go pull that up. And CACC is Credit Acceptance Corp. Used to be the old GMAC. And right now today, Tarpen, this is trading above the top of its bearer structure daily profile. So this is day one above that bearer structure because at 281.15, it's closer in proximity to the top where the sellers were at or are at 30465, but they've gotten run over today versus the bottom, which is support. We can see that support level was tested and held back on the trading day of April 22nd. Remember yesterday we talked about having these TAS market profiles as being a competitive advantage because it just assists us with understanding the game. This is a game of understanding where buyers and sellers are at. That, in essence, was what Ron was asking. And we were able to use that gap to the downside to identify where sellers may also be hanging out. But if I turn off these profiles, I'll do that right now and we're just looking at price, we're just naked. I'd just be guessing or I'd be giving you, yeah, maybe I would use some other technical prowess and tools and so forth out here, but it's just so much easier to just trade by the numbers. And that's when we turned those profiles on. Now we're trading by the numbers and we've just added a competitive advantage to understanding what the market is communicating to you and I. When you can take out resistance, it's kind of like, you know, if you're working out, you're playing golf, you're playing tennis, and you're just trying to get to the next level. Well, today, Credit Acceptance Corp on its daily timeframe got to the next level. Assuming that it can close above 304.65. So now we come back and just from a profile standpoint, take a look at where's the next profile. Well, that's going to be the weekly. And the weekly tells us what? This tells us that where Credit Acceptance Corp should run into resistance is going to be 348.54. So, Tarpon, if you, I think you're saying you're short, if you're short, based on the profile charts, we don't see it. Right? I don't know if you're short or not. I might be reading into it or you're asking, maybe is it a short or something? And my answer would be, at least looking at these charts, no, the first ones where it might be a short would be in the 348 level at the top of that weekly profile. Now, let's go take a look at Stevie's other charts and tools out here just to get a feel for if there's any other patterns that we might want to take a look at to consider for some type of top. I don't see it here. I don't have it on the daily timeframe. So we don't have it there. Let's take a look at the weekly timeframe. And again, we're just looking for topping signals. And the topping signal, if you were looking to do that, you'd want to see price close back below Stevie's red line on the weekly timeframe. That's 319.50. If it closes back below that, well, then it's telling you, okay, a key level of resistance is held. So this will be on Friday where this number will be important. Because if you see a close above it on Friday, then chances are it wants to go and hit that 348.54 level, the top of that weekly profile. I'm going to take a quick peek here at the monthly. I don't think there's anything out here on the monthly that's going to assist us. There isn't. So I hope that that helps y'all with regard to G, I put in C, CACC, CACC, Credit Acceptance Corp. I hope that helps y'all with regard to what its intentions are, which looks to me like a move to the 348.54 level. Let's see here, a couple of questions that have come in. First one coming in from Johnny D. And my apology, my phone has not grabbed my email for some reason. So if my sound is going out a little bit, it's because I have to turn my head over towards my laptop on another computer to read it. So Johnny writes, with the news on Gilead's drug and the S&P possibly targeting the 3028 area. Oh, I tell you what, we've got to read that question. We'll come back to this break. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking at become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. For the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6, and 3 months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is, markets can be timed. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the home page of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. 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And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Thank you, folks. So now it's up 603 S&P 82 points. Let's go back to the question that came in here from Johnny. So Johnny, what are we doing here? Johnny wrote in with the news of Gilead Drug in the S&P possibly targeting the 3028 area, are you still convinced that this is a counter-trend rally and that the S&P will break the lows of March 23rd? And Scott writes, and I see Scott writes and he says, hey, that call of moving back to the lows is a little shaky out there. So actually, I like that. The answer is yes. I don't have any reason to, I would have to absolutely ignore history. I mean, absolutely have to ignore historical chart patterns to believe otherwise. We've got to remember what we're looking at. So let's, let me just go back to the S&P out here. And so let's just, let's just be again, let's just take a look at the numbers out here. The key level, the next key level inside the S&P 500, the cash indices, this is much like what Brent and I were looking at and we were just taking a look at US Steel. It's going to be 298593. And we're trading at about 2945 right now. Now 298593, that is the S&P's breakdown level. The, I don't know where the, let me see here, the A to B equals CD side of this pattern, we'll start with the low out here on March 23rd. It looks like the B point on the S&P cash is March 31st and looks like the C point was the low here of April 1st. And so the 30, the 3028 area, I come up with 3019 as being an A to B equals CD to the upside the next price projection. That's the 1.272. But we do know that you've got resistance at 298593. If there were to be a bearish reversal candle, then what we would have here is we would then end up having a Gartley cell pattern. At this moment, we don't have that. So we're just simply going to have to watch the 298593 level. So that's in the S&P 500. I'm going to switch over and take a look at the Dow, which is really the big dog out here. It's a trophy horse for international. So what has the Dow done so far? Well, if we take a look at the Dow, particularly from a trend line standpoint, is you can draw this on your own S&P chart or your Dow chart out here. You can draw it on each of them. But what I'm done here, I've created a trend line coming off of the lows from 2016. And then my next connection out here, this is the shorter term trend line from December the 1st. And what we can see inside the Dow is price just made it right back. This would be the ideal counter trend rally area inside the Dow. But inside the Dow, right now, we'll just come back at the Dow out here. So hopefully I've answered your question, Johnny. I have different price targets than you. I'm going to suggest that you're going to watch at $29.85, $93 level. If price can close above that, just like in US deal, then price should go on to the next level. The next level here, price projection-wise, is $30.19. And above that would be $31.74. Now let's go ahead and pull up the chart for the Dow itself. And let's see if this also had a breakdown level. So this does. This also has a TD-9 count breakdown level. And that's at $25.994.38. The Dow would have to get above that, Johnny. The Dow would have to get above that, Scott, to suggest that, hey, maybe this is something different. Maybe this is something different than a counter trend rally out here. If we take a look at the A to B equal CD, so I'm going to draw this in here for the Dow. And what we're going to see is that price still hasn't hit the 1 to 1 A to B equal CD price target. Now what this is communicating to me, what this is communicating to us is that the trophy horse inside the market, and this is super important, this is gigantic important. Remember yesterday, I said, look, one of the most important things. I'd gotten some emails from folks and there's, you know, hey, what should I learn first, this, that, or the other thing. And as I said to you, the most important thing that we need to do is be able to look at both sides of the trade out there. So that's it. That was number one. Number two, and maybe this is really number one. I don't know which one is first out here, but they are both substantially important. And that is, what I see everybody doing, when I say everybody, not you guys that are gals that are listening or what have you, you know, the news media, the boob tube group out there, but I see everybody doing, and this is, this is the, this is the gigantic mistake that people make is we think only in terms of ourself, pretty stuck up, huh? Only in terms of ourself. What does TV mean by that? We must think this is a global marketplace out here. And we're also dealing with now is a global problem. It's not that the health problem is the minimal issue out there. That thing has gotten so far overblown. I mean, well, I won't go into it. I could, but I've studied it really well, and I have a lot of insights of that trade out there. There's the economic piece of this puzzle that hasn't even begun because the health piece of it just keeps consuming so much time out there, but with regard to the Dow, this is the big money. These are the big money players out here. And what we haven't even gotten to yet inside the Dow is even the one to one, A to B equals CD to the upside. Don't be the S and P represents basically US centric out here. The Nasdaq, the Russell two thousand it don't take this the wrong way but really kind of the retail marketplace I'm not saying that they don't make up holdings inside you know your portfolio or if you're managing portfolios for others out there that that but I just in in general if we can kind of break the break the these into those categories out there in the most important category being what is going on globally out here and in the case of the Dow. You can see it hasn't even made the one to one this is telling you about the lack of confidence. About the lack of confidence with that big ball of capital that floats around the globe out here. Now the breakout level. Inside of the Dow Jones or the break down levels really what I should say is at twenty five nine ninety four price would have to close above that. To say that maybe there's something else that that you know what that the markets are just simply going to ignore. All of the past historical. Stuff what is that stuff out there well first you know what if you take a look at let me just do this let me pull over this little slide here. Here's the Dow going back to nineteen twenty nine. Nineteen twenty nine low- you'll see the A to B equal CD pattern. And I would have to say that people were saying the same things they were thinking the same things that maybe maybe the worst was over. And that that Jesus was not going to be any type of countertrend rally here you can see the one to one the Dow basically back in nineteen twenty nine was a nineteen thirty April of nineteen thirty and this is a weekly chart that we're taking a look at when it generated its Gartley sell pattern out there and it did it just like the way that I've taught each of you how to do this and selling the deep pointer Gartley patterns in the importance of bullish and bearish reversal candles here you can see the bearish reversal candle that confirmed that pattern out there. And of course once it created that was the Gartley sell here's what you can see. Is that that just simply went ahead and we saw prices move lower into nineteen thirty two. And what was taking place in nineteen thirty two was a was the G. D. P. low during that time period the G. D. P. low did not come in nineteen twenty nine it did not come in nineteen thirty it did not come in nineteen thirty one it occurred in nineteen thirty two what transpired today well we had our G. D. P. went from positive to down to minus four point eight percent that was for the first quarter. You think that maybe the second quarter or third quarter or fourth quarter might have a lower G. D. P. than what we just saw. I think the answer is yes. Steve wrote to T. F. and M. will be right back. You're in the C. 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page by going to tfnn dot com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfnn dot com educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade l a b u or l a b d directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn dot com and hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn dot com then hit watch tiger tv for the latest market information let's go to our next question out here this one coming in from Hector and the fuel injectors Hector and Patty and Hector says that since we are coming to the close of the month can you please can you please give us your thoughts on the a to b equal CD on the monthly time frame I use the twelve eighteen as a point and two twenty is a b point and three twenty twenty as a c point so let me just come back out here let's try to draw in what Hector is doing so for the a point you're using twelve twenty eighteen so as your a point twelve okay I see what you're using and for your b point you're using the c point using three twenty yeah so that's three twenty eighteen okay I so I guess here's what here's the a to b equal CD that you're drawing in here so as what it looks like to me so the a point back here December of twenty eighteen your b point you're using as you as a high from February is that right yeah so you're using out here as that high and then your retracement down here into the other side can go with that that that that's fine the March low out here the problem is so and that would give you a one to one price projection three seventy two fifty four and four twenty four seventy three for the one one point two seven two out there however you've got to exceed the b point three sixteen thirty two in order for this pattern and I think you know that Hector in order for this pattern to come through fruition so let's get off of the monthly time frame chart now monthly just to take a feel this thing when it made a let's deal with some resistance from back here in October of twenty eighteen three hundred twenty four million shares right now today you're at two hundred sixty eight million shares and when price was moving up here was at two hundred ninety six million shares so it's kind of got some light volume that would stick out at me at this stage of the game here Hector let's come back and take a look at the daily time frame because there's need to be equal CD pattern that maybe it's a little easier for us to take a look at this has a one one price projection at three thirty three eleven now the B point on this so the A point would be March eighteen the B point would be a March thirty first in the C point down here would be April third that gives you that one one price projection at three thirty one now when the B point was passed that was a trading day of March thirty first the B point twenty three million shares price has not that's going to be this little red line down to my volume area on the screen we can see that we haven't seen that kind of volume is price got above that Tom's going to be doing a workshop tomorrow I don't want to give away too much of it but this potential A to B equal CD pattern here he'd call that the tiger well I can't call it a tiger garly but this could end up being a tiger butterfly pattern if it in fact makes its way up there now from a trading standpoint the swing point on this Hector on a daily basis February twentieth and that had twenty million shares in there and it's been tested a couple different times light volume April twenty seven twelve million shares yesterday eleven million shares today's going to be about eleven million share a day this is struggling just to get into a S to try to take on this little resistance area this little swing point and it's doing it with light volume and it's also being rejected by the top of that profile so before I'd be really focused in on the monthly time frame I'd really be watching what's going on on the daily time frame now with regard to Nvidia we know that it's running into resistance at prior highs out there doing with less volume always says be careful now be careful in this case here's this price may pull back to about the two eighty two level you would not want to see it close below two eighty two two eighty two is the bottom of a bullish structured profile a close below that would say okay there's some other issues going on inside of the Nvidia so I'm going to come back to the daily time frame out here by other tools and do I have any other topping signals in the answers I don't I don't have anything steve's green line is at two eighty nine sixty one so here's what I just want to know you're coming into resistance we're seeing it play out real time out here I just keep a make sure you keep a stop in place as far as the average true range on Nvidia on a daily basis it's running at about fourteen dollars and thirty cents so that means that you would use a stop or you could use a stop that would be fourteen thirty times some Fibonacci expansion level that would either be one point two seven two or the one point six one eight so I think you've got the right swing points selected for your A to B equal CD on the monthly time frame but I think you've got to deal with what's going on in the daily time frame and forget about that little bigger picture at this stage of the game hope that helps you out next question here coming in from John John writes in hey Steve I'm looking to buy UPS so let's get that fired up on our screen out here UPS and let's go back to John's question and John goes on to say I was looking to enter a twenty percent position on the downgrade it's not acting well considering the market is on a tear this is why I'm looking to accumulate some things have a great day and be safe so thank you John same same to you so the position when you say twenty percent position I don't know what that necessarily means but here's what I would like to share with you with regard to UPS when you do take that trade whatever trade that might be by the way if you're looking to get in the UPS right now from a market profile standpoint I'm not saying to do it okay but if you were then today would be a day to consider because prices pulled back to the bottom of its daily profile and it is held so far and that's ninety five thirty two now we're going to go do more investigative work here but the first and most important thing is when you do enter your position what I'd really like you to do I'd like you to figure out John what your free trading capital is I'm just going to use ten thousand dollars so you can use ten thousand dollar increments and on that ten thousand dollars you're only going to put it risk one percent on ten thousand that's a hundred bucks now what that really means is you're going to take that hundred dollars and you're going to figure out what your stop is in the case of UPS the average true range is basically four dollars it's three dollars and ninety cents to be exact out here you would multiply that times one point two seven or one point six one eight I would suggest the latter we're in a volatile marketplace you want to have a wider stop so let's just say that four times one point six one is six bucks out there you take your hundred dollars you divide it by six and that is how many shares you would buy out there so it's something less than twenty I'm just going to throw a twenty is the number and then you'd multiply twenty times whatever your purchase price is let's say it's about a hundred bucks so now you're looking at two grand now two grand out of the ten thousand if that's your twenty percent number because that would be your exposure to UPS okay I get it I can dig it because then you're using proper position sizing however when I do my proper position sizing for an individual stock it's different for an individual stock with regard to the exposure versus an ETF or a sector I should say so a sector ETF versus the indices and general rules would be you wouldn't want to put more exposure of your total portfolio meaning ten percent of an individual stock in it so this would have represented that's just that little thing that we just went through that process position sizing which is if I were to say a third thing that's important out there it would be understanding position sizing it would be understanding the risk reward it would be it would be like for example let's say you ran the produce department you just you get this job first day you don't know anything about produce but dear you know the manager's got a lot of confidence and trust in you and put you in charge of running the produce department yet you have no idea how the tomatoes move through there for that area or how the other fruit and if you just start ordering nilly will you're going to have a lot of product that you're throwing out position sizing is really important on individual stock don't consider ten percent to be the maximum exposure you would have out there sectors inside the S&P maybe that's around 30% and the indices probably 40-50% out there we'll be right back there's a daily market overview with regard to the direction of the key indices selective stocks and commodities along with specific recommendations including stops and targets you also gain instant access to Basil's subscriber webinar archive from earlier this year a dark cloud cover and essential market analysis ride the Chapman wave today by signing up for the opening call newsletter on the front page of TFNN.com under the newsletter tab new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk sign up today gold market has taken off top side in a large way in 2020 if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report took profits in four of its equities in the gold portfolio in the first week of January for a combined profit of 99.2% with two positions left in the portfolio that have a profit of 67.5% as of January 7th the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets 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Nicar hunter and gatherer ancestors found all their nutritional requirements for health in their wild environment but today our food sources no longer contain the vitamins, minerals and nutrients our bodies need to stay healthy and strong. That's why we need primal edge daily nutrition. It includes a special blend of ionic, soil based vitamins, minerals, baddie and amino acids in an easy to use liquid form. Primal edge is powered by highly concentrated folic and humic acids. Nature's preferred delivery system. They have been called miracle molecules because like sunlight, air and water, life cannot exist without them. That's right Paige, they ensure we receive all the nutrition we need to be healthy and thrive. We take it every morning. Primal edge, formulated and approved by Nico and Paige of living a primal lifestyle. Buy it today for just $89. Click on the primal edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com This is David White. Stay tuned because coming up next is the power trading hour right here on TFNN. So Rich, I'm going to ask you, I'm sorry John, I'm going to ask you to hold off on UPS. This made a TD9 Count Top on its daily pattern back here on April 17th. You can see Stevie's red line and turned green back on April 23rd. And as that was turning from red to green, price was on that line and yesterday's pullback should not have closed below that level. So 9242 is near you're going to want to watch, but I would be careful. I would just, I would remain patient out here and maybe get back to me in the next couple of days. Let's go out to Oregon and speak with Rich. Rich, thanks for calling. Thanks for holding. How are you? Good. Thanks for taking that call, Steve. You bet. We've got about a minute and 15 seconds. I was looking at AMD only because it's one of the top holdings in the SOXX. Okay. And AMD didn't have exactly positive forward guidance, and I know the market is looking forward always. Is the SOXX based on what I'm seeing in AMD and you were even talking about NVIDIA, are they getting ready to top out or are they just going to keep going up? So in the case of AMD, and I can stick with this here, I would have just enough time to do that out here. If AMD closes today below 54-22, and then tomorrow below 54-22, what it is signaling to you is that it's going to pull back to 44-06. Now this is how we derive that. What we can see is that this when it made its most recent high out here, it did it on the bar following bar number nine, so it created a TD-9 count top. And now price is trading below the bottom of its bullish structured profile. A second day below that will tell you that that is a real breakdown to the downside. And price would pull back to where it had most recently broke out. And that's the 44-06 level. So that's what AMD is doing, Rich. We're out of time here. You'll have to, at this stage here, kind of make the correlation whether the sacks are going to follow what AMD is doing, but watch tomorrow you might have a better idea in the case of AMD. Okay, my friend? All right. Thanks very much, Steve. Have a good afternoon. You bet. Thanks for calling. Folks, thanks so much for being here. Stay tuned. You've got two more great hours coming up. You've got your favorite polar bear, David White. He's up next. Tom O'Brien to take us home from three to four. Thanks so much for being here. Thanks for the calls, the emails, folks, and have a terrific, wonderful Wednesday.