 For the time being the changes in forecast are not substantial enough to warrant a decision to act. That was what Mario Traghi actually yesterday Said there was nothing new about the ECB meeting yesterday. So euro dollar went sharply up Going into the press conference and then after the press conference the all the gains were faded out Was sold off and euro dollars were tree there where it has been at the start of the trading day yesterday The market expectations are still the same markets are left with still guessing about the timing of when Mario Traghi will actually extend the time of Audit the time length of the Current QE program it will run out in March 2017 everybody expects that the ECB targets regarding inflation will not be reached in March of 2017 so he will have to increase the length the time and duration of that QE program It's the only question is when will he do it the next meeting will be in October and the Following meeting on October will be in December So everybody expects that at least in December at the latest he will increase the length of that QE program So it's still the ECB guessing game is still on so Yeah, then the next Next news of note in my opinion was coming from JP Morgan They have a quant analyst who is relatively famous for his some precise analysis on the Larger moves in the equity markets on Wall Street, and he says that there has been a time period now over the summer where we had relatively stable macro data and AC's no decline in trading activity Which is normal for summer months, but now he is concerned that This could change over the path over the next month. So he says that September and October normally Bring with it a higher volatility. So 20 to 30 percent higher volatility in September and October which is normal, of course And he also says that the normalization plans of the Federal Reserve will in the end bring higher volatility In my opinion, he is right, of course volume is coming back On the other hand if the Federal Reserve will not act in September Then it will not act in November because it would just high crates Some days before the presidential elections in the united states So markets will have time to December to see if there's anything coming out of the Federal Reserve So if there will be no September rate hike, it will be very positive for equity markets because it would just mean that rates will stay lower for longer Next big thing besides the ECB meeting yesterday was the price of crude oil, of course We expected or markets expected 905,000 barrels built in inventories in the united states What the department of energy actually Published was a decrease of inventories, a massive decrease by 14 and a half million barrels So huge decrease If you really look deeper into the statistics that were published yesterday You found out that the storm the tropical storm Hamina is actually To blame for that large decrease in the inventories so a lot of imports coming from the Gulf of Mexico into the Into uh, Louisiana for example They couldn't have been Made because of that tropical storm. So um, this is just a one-time effect. But in the end Crude markets are not interested They they took that inventory data as a reason to stage a massive rally plus five percent almost in print and wti prices yesterday, there is pressure building buying pressure building on a technical um Technical level if you look at the chart if you go above 52 in print crude oil this could lead to a An activation of a bottom information. So an inverted head and shoulders pattern has been formed in the past months Should that be activated by a weekly close above 52 dollars in print crude oil? We activate a target of that inverted head and shoulders pattern of 78 So large potential there. Um, that is definitely a market that should be watched closely today for a weekly close in print above 52 weekly close in wti above 50 51 dollars actually, um Bringing a good move to the crude markets was also Saudi Arabia. They Poplished that their production went actually down from 10.67 to 10.63 million barrels So down 40 000 barrels a day in their daily in their oil production per day. So that is actually, um, also Um improving the sentiment. So now all eyes are on Algeria. There will be an oil conference We're actually Saudi Arabia and Russia will do the first steps to form that alliance to cap world oil production um To to like increase and stabilize oil prices They will meet in Algeria at that oil conference and talk about that for the first time Iran was already said, okay We have the right to increase our production to pre-sanction highs Which is slightly or is at or slightly above 4 million barrels per day Which could be reached at the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017 and that could also be the, um, time Um period actually where Iran could theoretically join that alliance between Russia and Saudi Arabia. So might be this alliance is In the end feasible And that could be a reason for crude prices to go to 78 dollars In the end, it's technical analysis and news Make the prices it's not the other way around for technical analysis So if just watch it if there will be a price of 52, this might be uh, bring with it a uh strong move in crude prices