 Called in this computer, right? Excellent. So welcome and the reason for the call It wasn't scheduled, but I thought I would Kind of interact with you guys as well. It'd be better if we rather than you may just kind of talking on the video I guess I could ask some questions and we can get some interaction going and also maybe talk about some other stuff if you wanted to but the reason for the call is really because there is you know conflicting data conflicting flows regarding the euro and there's been kind of a build-up to it if you've been you know watching the fundamentals and You know reading up there's been kind of the news wires have been coming in and they've been talking about You know potential euro strength, but my position on the euro was More of what I want to see the data, right? I want to see the data to confirm any kind of euro strength Because you know, there's rumors. Yeah, we can we can buy the rumor But you still need to have the data to confirm that rumor. Otherwise, it doesn't make any sense Just buy any and anything, right? But Even though we haven't quite seen that the data come through on the euro just yet There are some, you know, like for example, I think it's like PMI data and stuff like that But nothing to do with really kind of GDP inflation or Interest rates, which is really what I'm and jobs is what I'm really kind of focused on but Even though we haven't seen that data just yet It seems like Is is really is really building Stronger and stronger for a higher euro dollar. Yeah, and so yesterday there was There was the the speech I guess Regarding Where is it now? What did I put it or did I click on it? Sorry, but you know, you know The ECB basically had their their speech Around and basically on monetary and policy guidance, right? I thought I thought I had Clicked on it euro zone Obviously not Sorry one second one second guys. Yeah, so there was the ECB and it was basically a meeting to forget It wasn't really anything but The the the really the move higher The market and you know Goldman Sachs ing there's a lot of Banks that are thinking that the euro is gonna go higher and there are some banks that think that you know The dollar obviously should gain strength which would make sense, right? because the dollar is ahead of the of Europe Europe is lagging but the conflicting flows with regards to news flows regards to Forecasts et cetera because ing basically saying more more Euro-dollar upside to come There is Nomura as well saying that flows begin to favor Euro gains and there are reasons for that so hints of euro upside and I think I was looking for this for the for the Pound dollar article where it was talking about Goldman Sachs was talking about, you know long euro as well, so there is lots of It's in is it in the euro channel, you know, I've been I was looking for it Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? And it's my I'm skimming, but I'm I'm missing it See this was the Nomura one Because you read it too right right Ken You read it too. Yeah, and I just for some reason I can't find it if you can find it type golden Yeah, yeah, that would make sense in it Goldman I tell other people to do this and then I don't do it myself No, it's not in there It's not in there because this is this is a while ago. It was it was maybe it was maybe a With a long-term bearish anyway on on on the dollar put it that way Zach pandell, but there was a there was a pound. There was a there was a pound Where is it now one second? There was a pound sterling Here it is here it is here it is your capitulation. No, that wasn't it that wasn't it Yeah, vaccine bets, but there was I think they'll it was it was it was a Pound sterling article, but anyways, this is Goldman Sachs here revised is a three month forecast of 125 exactly So the information is there exactly But I read it on a pound sterling article. Anyways, but brilliant. Thank you Ken So so this is basically, you know, the forecast that I go in ahead, right? You're a dollar and it's it's it's head scratching, right? Because what we typically know about the fundamental analysis is that the dollar at the moment is, you know, really good Yeah, you got great job numbers. They unemployment came out the other day and you know, I mean it came out really good GDP is growing You know inflation is is is is above target and stuff like that So it's like well, why would you not buy the dollar? Right? Why are you not buying the dollar and There seems to be this I don't know whether I want to call it an agenda or there seems to be this theme of a weaker dollar even in the face of what we typically know to be true about fundamental analysis and I Can't in good consciousness Knowing what I'm seeing and and and basically look for or or engage in confirmation bias where I'm ignoring the the things that I don't want to see and Only look for things that I want to see I have to be as neutral as possible I have to be as neutral as possible and I have to take in the opinions that oppose mine right and whether I agree with them or not You know, I have to kind of make up my mind So with that being said with that being said I have to come back to this currency valuation cycle and So what makes sense to me and I've been thinking about this is that We've got the dollar which is on the currency appreciation cycle Yeah, so it's really that end right there But we also have a potential currency revaluation Right for the euro Yeah, so that's dollar and that's the euro and I did explain I think I went over this in Wednesday's call But I think what's happening is is that even though the dollar You know, it's been it's been strong recently I think the news is being priced in and I think with the euro The the the theme is for the euro to play catch up and if the euro starts to play catch up But the news has already been priced in for The the the dollar as far as all the good news and etc etc Then what is the actual value of what should the value be of the euro dollar exchange rate and all Well, let's say all the banks but a lot of the Yeah, and that's basically it the euro strength could push the dollar lower. That's basically it Yeah, but we we still need to wait for the data to come in because that's not necessarily confirmed But this is the theme. So the rumor is starting right here Yeah, the room is starting right here. And once the data starts to come in Yeah, exactly. And this is it. So you don't want to short the dollar I'm not saying I'm not saying because the euro's going long that you should now short the dollar Right. I'm not saying that don't ever think that what I'm saying is is that Is that for me? Euro dollar is now not a trade that I'm I'm I'm interested. I'm personally interested in Yeah, I just I can't trade it because I'm just very unsure at the moment as to You know the strength of the move and even though the target is one two five Yeah, we see one two five on the horizon There are easier trades, right? So what we don't want to do we we want to trade Convergences or divergences so mainly divergences or if a strong currency is going to get weak and a weak currency is going to get strong All right, I don't really like using term strong weaker more And appreciating currency is probably going to devalue and a devalued currency is more going to you know revalue Yeah In price right so convergences and divergences what we don't want to do Yeah is look for something like this, which is basically what we're seeing here Yeah, this is what we're seeing in the from february from end of january So let's say to say february beginning february march right and april and into you know, the big the beginnings of april we had we had basically currency appreciation for the dollar and we had Devaluation for the euro that's the trap that was the trade right and hence the reason why you saw Euro dollar basically selling off Until like the one I think it was like the one seven one one seven something like that one one seven fifty area Yeah, that's the reason why you saw that now what you're seeing is the rumor Starts are coming for the euro where you have the reflation or sorry revaluation trade Yeah, so when you get something like this Even though on the fundamental analysis spreadsheet, you might see two versus seven Yeah It's not just as simple as just saying all right buy strength sell weakness because we have to understand The currency value cycle. Yeah the currency value cycle. So with that being said I've I've I've changed my position. I'm still actually in Um Two short positions on the euro. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna exit them to be fair. I'm just gonna, you know, let them If they stop me out or you know, they go to my target, right? That's pretty much what you know I'm gonna I'm just gonna leave it up to You know the probabilities Of whether because prices can still go down, right? I'm not saying that prices are gonna go You know higher from here euro higher right because even if prices do go higher to one too far from there You'll get you're gonna get pullbacks, right? And there's there's an opportunity to make money I'm not saying that you should but there's obviously if you're in a short trade You're looking for enough of a pullback within that Trend for you to potentially make, you know Some pips even though the path of least resistance is to the upside There is an opportunity or there are opportunities Potentially to make some money in the pullbacks if you've got enough, you know risk award in there Yeah, but the path of these resistance it seems it seems at the moment and if the data starts supporting this That the path of these resistance is to one two five instead of one Two five level so if that's the case Yeah, and it's confusing. I always say this if you're unsure about A certain currency pair Then just don't trade it, you know and ken says uh people are also saying euro was driven by the end of the second quarter So this is probably by the rumor exactly. It's the start of the buy the rumor sell the facts Yeah, it's the start of this, you know the rumor starts around here And then it's like okay, that's the expectation and we're right at the beginnings at the moment of The expectation of the euro now all we need to see is that is the data to confirm That rumor that's exactly what happened In when at the end of january when we were looking at buying the dollar against the euro, right? The rumor was that the dollar should potentially strengthen Yeah, and but we saw the data to back it up. We saw GDP come in we saw inflation start to rise You know, I mean So that we saw you know the bond market started to started to rise because it was looking at the also the same data Yeah, and then you started to see the euro dollar go down But if the dollar if the euro sorry has to be revalued because of potential You know revaluation and buying the rumor then The ultimate goal is one two five now the question is do you do you trade the euro dollar, right? I can't I can't tell you that I can't I can't say You know 100% whether you should or you shouldn't all I can say is what I'm doing likelihood is is that um, there is You know, uh, there is definitely some trades there, but the always the the question I'm always asking is is where's the easier trade? Where are the easy trades and I'm going to talk about the easier trades in a sec um So people are saying the euro was strengthened. Yeah. Yeah so uh sam says yep, uh read a lot of vaccine optimism Yeah, that was in fact, let me just um Delete this one second. Yeah vaccine optimism. I saw there was a Uh, there was some vaccine optimism uh, data as well I think I did post something uh the gods Yeah here it was so there was a bit of a um vaccinations per week, US is the outperformer, but the Euro area is accelerating, right? So the divergence between the Euro vaccine lagging and the dollar lagging or dollar leading is narrowing. So as it narrows, they have to reprice in now that trade, right? Because the expectation for the vaccine and the rollout and being a successful rollout is what? Should be positive Euro GDP. Everyone's getting back to work because the UK already back to work, right? We've opened up, you know, we're seeing positive news, et cetera, et cetera. The same thing with the dollar. That dollar is, you know, in the US economy, that's the same thing. So now the trade potentially is for Euro strength because now the Euro, we already made money or if you did on the pound, if you made money on the dollar, but now it's time to make some money on the Euro and buying the Euro on the expectation of positive numbers. So Ken says that Johnson and Johnson being passed in Europe has started the push, absolutely. And Sam says, in my experience of trading, how forward thinking is the market? It's difficult to say, it's difficult. You can't really quantify it. It's just you have to kind of have your finger on the pulse and you obviously have to have rules, right? Because, and there are certain turning points. So for example, yesterday was, I think, up until yesterday, I did say on Wednesday, I think it was, I did say that, you know what, I need to see the data. I need to see that. And I've been saying that for the past, you know, couple of weeks, I want to see the data, I want to see the data for the Euro. But now it looks like with the vaccines as Ken has been saying, and we've all been kind of reading, is that the vaccines now being approved, Johnson and Johnson, the rollout, the data starting to look better, yeah? For me, it's now a case of stop, again, I'm going to stop trading the Euro dollar because again, like I said, it's just a bit too conflicting at the moment. But then, on the other hand, which leads me to my next question, which is what are the currency pairs, right? What then are the currency pairs? And let me just go to the fundamental analysis spreadsheets.