 Hello, welcome to everyone for the next capsule of international relations for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we are talking about the assumption of the chairmanship of the G20 by India, specifically Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There is some jubilation in India about this particular position that India has acquired at a critical time in history. But we should remember that this was just a matter of alphabetical order after Indonesia, India. But sometimes in history, it happens that this kind of rotation sometimes lands the right country in the right place at the right time. So this particular election or nomination of India as G20 president at this time is full of significance because in the most difficult situation, the most difficult problem that G20 is addressing is the Russia-Ukraine war. And India's position on the war has been criticized by some, but it is getting greater acceptance in the last few weeks. And therefore, the fact that India is now the chairman of G20 is seen as a good omen. And this was demonstrated by the fact that the recent Bali summit where India was designated as the president of the G20, India played a very significant role. Even though G20 was established to deal with economic issues, it cannot escape from the political consequences and economic problems arising out of political situations. So G20 is emerging as a major force in the world because all the important countries of the world are there. About 80% of the population is represented and the wealth is represented in G20. And like the Security Council, there is no veto in G20. And you may recall that in 2008-2009, when there was a big economic meltdown, it was G20 and the contribution made by Dr. Manmohan Singh, which helped the world to come out of that particular crisis. So India has enjoyed considerable clout in G20. And this time in Bali, where the last summit was held, the main point of discussion was Russia-Ukraine war. And of course, most members of the G20 are totally against Russia and they all voted against Russia in the Security Council and the General Assembly. The only two countries who were abstaining on this issue were India and China. In fact, we were criticized for voting with China on this issue, but we stuck to it till the last point. And India and China for different reasons took a neutral stand. And both of them are now also convinced that the war must end. So the general feeling in the G20 was to condemn Russia. The point of the Bali summit became to finding a solution via mediation or arbitration or negotiations. Some solution, because if you're dealing with the economic system of the world, the end of the war was absolutely essential to save the world from the crisis, the food crisis and the energy crisis, which will aggravate very much if this goes beyond one year. It's already almost a year. Just in three months, by February, it will be a year. And before that, ending the war is an important objective. So you will find in the communique that was issued at G20, the emphasis is not on condemnation of Russia, which of course it is there. It says that most of the members of the G21 criticized or deplored Russia. But the main thrust of the G20 communique was that this war should end and the G20 should exert efforts. And the people are looking at Mr. Narendra Modi as the man who may be able to find some kind of a way. And therefore, what the G20 declaration, if you read it, you will find that most of the words they are used are from India's statements. Because India has always been emphasizing the need for peace, negotiation, democracy etc. rather than war. The famous words that Prime Minister Narendra Modi used when he met Putin, this is not the era for war, it is the era of reconciliation, democracy and negotiations. He said this to President Putin's face when they met and it was reported very widely. And these words have been actually put into the communique as the advice of the entire G20. This is no small accomplishment. The White House, the State Department said soon after the summit that India's contribution to the formulation of the joint communique was very significant. And on top of that, President Biden himself has spoken yesterday about the big role that India played at the G20 in the context of the Ukraine-Russia war. So this is the first time that the United States and others are saying something good about India's position. So far they have been saying that India is betrayed, the cause of sovereignty, betrayed, non-aggression, such principles. So that is really the reason why people are very hopeful. And Mr. Narendra Modi himself has said that he will be, of course, as chairman of the President of the G20, he will have a continuing role till next year, till next December. And he will exert all his efforts to end the war, particularly if both the parties request him to do so. Whether they will request him to do so at this point is not known. But with the cloud of G20, perhaps India may be able to play a big role in the solution of this war. This expectation is what has made people in India somewhat jubilant. Some people say this is because of the personal qualities of the Prime Minister. Some people say no, this is a result of what India has done ever since its independence. We have always argued for peace in our advocated war, etc. So the political game is going on and the BJP is thinking that this will also do good for them in the 2024 elections. Anyway, that apart, the opportunity that India has got in this context is a golden opportunity. But at the same time, full of challenges. So it is an opportunity, but a lot of challenges because there will be so many important levels. First one is the situation on the ground because reports show that Russia has been forced to retreat from Kherson, which they had occupied. And they have lost a lot of soldiers and Ukraine is in a kind of jubilant mode, even though they are also losing people and money and buildings every minute. But they also feel that they are on the verge of victory. And with the approval of President Biden, having maintained the majority in the Senate, that gives him an opportunity to give more money to Ukraine and others also might follow. So generally in the NATO camp, there is a certain amount of jubilation. And that may not be a good opportunity for negotiations because if Russia is feeling the pinch of having to withdraw from occupied Ukraine territories, Putin is likely to be more adamant and more aggressive and he may actually increase the strength, the power, the force of the war. That is one reason. Secondly, China is also in the same position as India. And China will not look kindly at India taking the lead and if India is victorious, the kind of position that India will gain in the international community is a matter of concern for Xi Jinping because Xi Jinping went to Bali as a life president, life leader of China. And everybody was very keen to shake hands with him and talk to him and take photographs, etc. So he was a big hero there. So side by side with Mr Modi was become the president. There is also this aspect that China would not like India to gain prominence or importance in the next year. So China is likely to do things which would preempt India from doing a few things. So for both these reasons, the situation is very complex and nobody can say whether any solution can be found. President Putin has given no indication of any change in his policy while Mr Zelensky is already saying that he should be declared a winner or should become a winner. And repeatedly Zelensky called G20 as G19 because Russia was not there. I mean Russia was there in the sense that the foreign minister was there but Mr Putin naturally did not go. And the foreign minister was in great trouble because everybody was attacking him, sneering at him, looking at him and all this. And he actually left towards the end of the session criticizing everybody and he left from there. So Zelensky seems to have an upper hand. This may not be true militarily. So this is the atmosphere that we are entering into. Like the famous saying that we tread in, some people are tread into areas where angels we are to tread in. So I mean we have not sought this, we have not asked for it. This was some kind of a combination of circumstances which has thrust this on us. So we can only hope for the G20 meeting we are planning in a big way. The next one year we will have more than 100 meetings in different parts of India to discuss various issues and come to compromises, concerns, etc. And we have our machinery and we are very good at protocol and the meeting will be very, very successful. But whether it will be able to solve the problem of Russia, Ukraine war, there is no guarantee of certainty. So that is the situation in which we are. But I am sure India will do its best to do what it can. If you look at the Bali Summit you will notice that the person who has assumed great significance in the international community is Xi Jinping himself. And even Mr. Narendra Modi walked up to him and shook hands with him. And he had meetings with several people. President Biden spent a long time with him and the discussions were the first time they are meeting after the pandemic. And so they had very good conversation and it looked as though both of them agreed to recent relations between US and China. And that is an important development which has significance for everybody. In fact, President Biden even said that he does not feel that China is about to attack Taiwan. I don't know on what basis he said that, but after the conversation he said that to improve the atmosphere. So there is an improving atmosphere in China-US relations. But at the time of the summit, at the same time a report came that some missiles, Russian missiles hit the border of Poland and killed two people. And the immediate suspicion was this was Russia. And therefore the G7 countries called emergency meeting to consider this and this put Russia in even a bigger difficulty. But luckily for Russia, it was conceded by the Poles that these were not Russian missiles. They were actually Ukrainian missiles which had lost their way and landed in Poland. So that was a retrieve for Russia. Otherwise they should have aggravated the situation even more because there will be suspicion that Russia is spreading the war beyond Ukraine. So that was a good sign. The others dealt with China. They all spoke to them. Australia, which is at loggerheads with China, Prime Minister had a meeting. Except UK, UK Prime Minister had a meeting with Chinese President but he did not attend it for some reason. And other than that, most people who wanted meetings got it. And Xi Jinping even criticized publicly Prime Minister Trudeau for revealing the conversation that he had with him. And Canada had been having some difficulties ever since the chief executive officer of a big Chinese company was arrested and jailed in Canada. So it may have been related to that. So what he publicly chided him, as it were, for releasing this content of their discussion. Of course Trudeau was very conciliatory. He said, no, Mr. President, we can talk again. But then he walked away because after shaking hands with him, he said, let the atmosphere improve. So he was being tough with Canada, which shows his mindset. And so he has gone back with a new incarnation, having got international recognition. But how he'll behave in the G20 meetings in the next one year, how many of them he will attend, how much support he will give to India is yet to be seen. So unless there is some solution on the areas which have become problematic on the line of actual control, the relationship between India and China will remain estranged. And therefore that question will arise. And on top of it, there is also India becoming the chairman of SCO, Shanghai Cooperation, which is led by China. So it's important that China should also cooperate. And therefore all of them welcomed the Prime Minister of India's assumption of the leadership of G20. Looking at the declaration by the G20, which is a long one about 52 paragraphs and so on. So as usual, they have listed all the issues before the world and how to tackle them. But because everybody is so preoccupied with the Russia-Prene War, what has been put in there are all ideas, no new ideas there. Things which have been said already in other declarations. Like for example, coming to climate change, which is a serious problem. And at the same time, there was a COP 27 taking place in Egypt. Still in the declaration, there is very little about climate change, except to say that we will try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which is like motherhood, nobody can question it. And also on other issues like the pandemic, the question of supply chains. So issues on which there are serious consideration. Prime Minister said we now have a fertilizer shortage and this will become a food shortage very soon and an energy shortage very soon. So he stressed that it's very important for us to be so. But these things have also not been very clearly established there. But obviously the delegates do not have time to discuss all this. So the declaration also is more about Ukraine and Russia than about anything else. But the agenda of the G20 is large and we will devote attention to that. We have designated several officials and also designated certain places where these meetings will be held on different aspects of G20. So G20 will definitely be a success in India. Even if the Russia-Ukraine war is not resolved, but if it is not resolved, G20 will not have much of a success. And that may affect us if we are not able to do it. So on the one hand, it's a matter of privilege that we have the President of G20. On the other hand, the dangers are too many. But the good thing is that the Western countries have softened their attitude towards India. Because last few months it has been a tug of war between India and European Union and NATO. And our Foreign Minister was very forthright in answering and telling them the truth about purchasing oil or dealing with Russia. But President Biden by saying that India supported and played a big role in formulating the G20 declaration is evidence that there has been some relaxation and some value has been found for India's neutrality. So there the only competitor with us will be China, who also will want to appear to be reasonable. In fact, President of France Macron has asked China rather than India to start a mediation effort. And he has also suggested that he would want to visit Beijing if the pandemic situation permits it. He would like to visit China next year. So there is a certain rivalry there. But if everything falls in place, it will be an important victory for India. And at the same time, the championship of SEO provides a lot of opportunities for us to even improve relations with China. Pakistan has said that it may not go to SEO meeting in India because of the present situation. But the Chinese have not said so. And in fact, there is some expectation that India's championship will be helpful. So we are reaching a kind of turning point in our role internationally. This is significant because increasingly people are looking at G20 as an alternative to the security comes. Because there are the biggest developing countries, the biggest developed countries, economically powerful countries are all there. And mercifully there is no veto in G20. So it is assuming greater importance in the international field because when things are vetoed in the Security Council, instead of going to General Assembly to simply have a symbolic resolution, they would go to the G20 and try to reach consensus. So that is a hope which people are expecting. But of course in international relations, nothing can be permanent. So we have to be very watchful. So what I wanted to underline was that the importance that India has assumed and the elements of G20 and the possibilities of India resolving some of these issues must be on your mind when you go to the examination. Because by next year, G20 will be over and maybe by the time your examination comes there will be new developments. So you must certainly follow the developments in G20 from now to November 2023. So from Bali to Delhi is what we have to watch for. Thank you. That's a very legitimate question. But issue now is not diversion of missiles. The issue is survival of that nation, that is Ukraine. But what could have happened would be that they will be more careful in what they hand over to Ukraine. But actually the demand is for more and more lethal weapons to be handed over to Ukraine. I suppose they have had some training in these things because NATO has been supporting them suspiciously in the past. These things will not happen. This was not a very serious incident. It was only killed two people and hundreds of thousands are being killed. Two people dying from pollen will also not be considered as a grave mistake. And therefore I don't think there will be any change on the part of USA and NATO in its policy towards supplying of weapons to Ukraine. Because the Prime Minister will soon, the President Biden will soon be going to the Senate for more money for Ukraine. And that is the only policy that they feel will work in weakening Russia. Nobody can say, even President Putin will not be able to say that. There is always a chance, there is always pressure on them both from internally and externally. So it can happen but nobody can predict it. Well, that's obvious, isn't it? NATO is a military alliance and this is just a grouping of countries. That's a big difference. But many NATO countries are in it together with developing countries also. So it's a highly representative body though nobody has really, it was created by G7. G7 found that they could not resolve the issues, the most powerful seven countries of the world. So during the 2008 economic crisis, that is when G7 felt the need to have a bigger grouping. And that is how they invited many important developing countries to join and so G20 was formed. Of course G20 was formed earlier at a ministerial level but it became a summit level only in 2008, 2009. And so it has that capacity and that's the difference between NATO and G20. I don't know really how Australian FTA will affect us. But the Australians became estranged with China in the recent past just before the pandemic. But the Australian Prime Minister met Jingya Ping and they seem to have had a friendly discussion. Actually, Australian President was much stronger against China than we were hours ago. And so Australia was a very good partner. But how it will affect Indian economy? I simply don't know. We have to find out. We are also seeing trade agreements from other countries like UK for example. It looks as though UK is not ready, USA is not ready. And so I have explained many times before because of the interference situation politically around the world. People are reluctant to enter into long-term agreements. That is the mood. But in some cases it may happen and the Australian FTA agreement may come into force. And there are also other trade agreements in South and Southeast Asia for which we are not party. So all this will have a play as far as our economy is concerned. But I have no economics to explain how it will specifically affect. So when it happens, then we'll get back to it. Yes, so we are not talking to that. That's our policy, isn't it? But we must be in touch in some form or the other. It's not that we are not communicating with them at all. But formally our position is that we will not negotiate whatever is the issue. Well, that is our assumption always. And that is why except for that one agreement that Bangkok, which was held in Bangkok from which we walked away. In all other agreements, other FTAs, we have been in favour of it. But we also have some rethinking because we feel that globalization has not helped us as much as we expected. And so we are also moving towards Atmanar Bar Marath, which means that more and more self lands rather than trade agreements, etc. But it's a mix and this applies to us also in the sense that we also are not ready to jump into agreements. But USA and UK, we had reached a stage of completing it. And so that came as a disappointment and when this will be restored, we will know. Okay then, thank you very much. See you again. Bye bye.