 You usually don't have a scenario that you are fighting for control of sentiment, of longer-term sentiment. It's not like the five-day moving average. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. So last week we closed down 4% negative across all the major benchmarks. And what seemed to be an orderly back test just only a couple of days ago turned into something more. So guys remember we talked about, well now we're getting close to a very, very big area. If you watch the weekend update, we talked about the significance of the 50-day moving average. And let's kind of review here. I want to kind of show you guys something. So if you go back to here, before we broke the 50-day moving average, the first day, the first time they tested it, you could clearly see by just by the green candle, which means a higher close and open. The higher candle, right, the higher candle, they defended the 50-day moving average the first time around and then the bounce. And the next day, right, the next day they came and just didn't quite confirm the day, but they closed right on the 50-day moving average and ultimately everybody knows what happened. The following day they got below it and stayed below it for the next five months issuing a pretty steep sell-off. And that's kind of what would happen today. What happened today, right? We discussed that 303, 304 level on the cues on the weekend update and, you know, we talked about it on the weekend video. I thought the first shot, excuse me, we talked about it on the webinar, I forgot if I talked about it on the weekend video, but we talked about probably the first shot at the 50-day moving average was going to be defended, right? And that's exactly what happened this morning. If you guys remember, there was a bounce, initial bounce off that 304, 303 level. They started rallying, you know, rally, you know, almost four points off the 50-day moving average. So we knew right away that was the line in the sand. And now we talked about, well, now if we start building below that 304 level, that is going to be a very, very decisive blow to the bulls. And again, if you go back to the short history, once you give up the 50-day moving average, it's going to be a very, very tough time for the long bias argument to kind of make a stand. The problem with today's day was it was, I had a very frustrating day, okay? And the reason why I had such a very frustrating day was, number one, we gapped down pretty significantly overnight. So basically what happened was the majority of stocks that I liked, they were well below the pivot, right? Well below the daily pivot. And even the names that were still in play, they were catching up to their average true range very, very closely, especially at the opens. So it took away a lot of the value from us, right? But the most important part was I wanted to see what happened on the 50-day moving average. And number one, congratulations to all you guys who took that initial bounce. Somehow I missed it. Don't ask me why. But I missed it, right? So it bounced from 304 all the way up to 307. That was a beautiful, beautiful bounce. But what happened after is where the frustration kicked in. Usually when you defend the level, right? When you, for example, if you're trading Tesla and they defend, I'm just using a number, 885, right? 885, and that's a big, big order of rising support. When they test that level, it bounces. The next candle comes through, they confirm it. Here comes the price action back the wrong way. When you're trading the ETF side, it's a little bit different. So actually a lot different. And we saw today not once, not twice, not three times, but four times, right? The 50-day moving average being lost. All four times they set new lows on the day. All four times they got back above the 50-day moving average. All four times they started to rally, only to lose back the 50-day moving average, make another new low for the day. And this continued literally for about three, four hours. And I would use the word frustration, right? Again, you don't need to be down a lot of money to be frustrated. Sometimes the price action is just so radic. And again, I kept on saying this in the webinar today. You don't see a day like this often because you usually don't have a scenario that you are fighting for control of sentiment, of longer-term sentiment. It's not like the five-day moving average. People are controlled of a short-term sentiment. This is a long sentiment. Remember, once we broke here, we started a five-month cycle of declines. So this is a kind of a big deal. And the whole day, we literally saw over 404, under 404, excuse me, over 304, under 304, back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. At some point today at around noon, I was like, listen, I give up, right? I give up. I'm just not getting any type of clarity today. I'm really not. Every move is going like 50 cents at a time. I mean, look, you can trade something, and you're like, oh, it's stalling out. It's a 50-cent move, blah, blah, blah. But you can't have that the whole day. And this is one of those days that usually if you guys have been watching this update of all you guys have been in the webinar for the last 12 years or so, I'm pretty definitive, man. I'm pretty definitive. I kind of know what to expect of price action. And I'm telling you, I was sitting there today after 11 o'clock, after 11, 30, all this, and I have no idea what's going on. I wouldn't be shocked if we rallied all the way back to green. I wouldn't be shocked if we sold off another 500 points. I just wouldn't be shocked. You know what? I'm just going to leave it alone. And the one thing that I learned a long, long time ago, when you don't know what's going on. And again, over time, you're going to understand more and more things because you're going to see different scenarios. You're going to see you have so much screen time as you're kind of a go-to vice for a history lesson. But some days, man, and especially when you're fighting, remember, it's like a UFC match-up. And you're standing, both the fighters are standing in the middle of the ring, and they're just swinging on each other, one back, and they're just both connecting. And that's exactly what happened today. It was just super frustrating. Technically, we didn't get a lot accomplished, monetary. I took a small loss on the day. I just couldn't find an edge today, man. And that's what really, really frustrated me. But there is a silver lining to this, right? And that's the whole point. There is a silver lining. We always say sometimes the things that we kind of dissect throughout the day that don't show up on the scoreboard, meaning your monetary win or loss, sometimes you'll get better information. So if you have to take a little bit of step back, at least you're getting enough information, quality information that you can use for the rest of the week and especially go into tomorrow. The one thing that I did observe, just when the cues started bouncing, there was a lot of names. There were a lot of names that didn't rally with the cues. At any given point, you had Tesla not rallying. NVIDIA continued its breakdown from Friday's session. Microsoft continued to break down. You had Apple, right? Continue to move down as well. So you had a lot of names not rallying. Even Amazon, we saw when the market was rallying, man, they were physically coming for 120 weekly puts as the market was rallying, as the cues were rallying. So it really did give me a lot of kind of ammunition to at least it didn't help me today. It wasn't gonna help me today, but at least I could use it in the future. And the most important part was that data. So now we know a definitive area. We don't have to guess anymore. So tomorrow, this 303 level on the cues is everything, right? It's absolutely everything. But the question is, why do they hold it up today the first time? Again, I can make a case while here it is on 4-7. We also held the first time only to give it back the next day and the day after to start a new trend. But Matt Whitaker, a big shout out to Matt today. Number one, he identified the bounce perfectly this morning on the cues. But I think he made a great point today. And that great point was, well, the NASDAQ is being pulled down. But if you look at the S&P, S&P is still above the 50-day moving average and still has to test it. Remember, the one thing, that's a great, great point. The one thing that we always have to remember, that we want to see everything go down a tandem. So if the cues are underneath the 50-day moving average but the spies are still above, you can guess. You can have an educational guess and say, well, is the NASDAQ going to pull down the S&P? Or is the S&P going to pull up the NASDAQ considering everything is going back into gravity, the bet would always be the NASDAQ pulling down the S&P. But I think he made a valid point. If the S&P and the NASDAQ would have both tested today at the same time, at least we knew going into tomorrow's session, we knew, hey, if both confirmed the 50-day moving average, you're going to have a pretty violent sell-off. Because it's not going to be just regulated to the NASDAQ 100. You're going to have the whole mass of spread of names going through financial services, consumer cyclicals, whatever the case may be. But I still think that's a great, great point. I still think the S&P have to have their own day, their own line in the sand, to test all the way back down to this 390 level. Again, maybe it happens tomorrow, but just keep this in mind. They don't have to break down tomorrow. It could be two, three days, or the market could just put in this kind of a bottoming tail to start rallying up. Because remember, at the end of the day, we are still above the 50-day moving average. So going into tomorrow, again, yeah, look, of course, there's some names that look OK. Look at Cardinal Health. Look at Cardinal Health. Standing on a nice little channel here. Oh, the stock, EV. What was it, EVTL? No, wrong symbol. Hold on, let me give you the right symbol. It's not EVTL. It's, let me give you the right symbol. It's ENLC, right? Like a name like ENLC, right, that looks interesting, right? There's a couple of names that do look interesting on the upside. But at the same time, look at the semiconductors, right? I mean, NVIDIA looks like trash. AMD, as I forgot who said it in the webinar, he goes, AMD only testing the 50-day reclaiming and losing it 17 times today. Yeah, that's true. That's exactly what happened. Now we have a definitive line in the sand and AMD. So you have, NVIDIA continues to be weak. AMD continues to be weak and very, very close to losing its 50-day. You have microchip. Again, another semiconductor looks exactly like AMD as well. You have Zoom, right? I'm shocked they didn't take down Zoom yet. Zoom blew up on earnings. And it's just kind of building a bear flag. Again, maybe it goes tomorrow. Maybe it doesn't. But the point is, again, the value is definitely still to the downside. The only question is, I would, first of all, I would love to see a little bit of a gap open tomorrow just because the gap down today really destroyed 99% of our setup. So maybe that's where the frustration kicked in. And maybe I started just kind of getting a little more anxious. But there's certain days, and I tell you throughout the year, it's OK to turn around and go, look, I have no idea what's going on. I don't know how many times they need to test, retest, reclaim, lose the 50-day moving average. Today was one of those days. I just buy 11, 1130. I got super. I don't easily frustrated, but I got frustrated, right? I got kind of frustrated. And I say, you know what, let me just move to the side. I don't care what this market does the rest of the day. Let the market do the heavy lifting. And if you see how the queues closed, they did close within 40 cents of the 50-day moving average. It's tomorrow the day. The bears are kind of getting their knife and fork ready to kind of eat. We'll see. We'll see. Again, we can't control the overnight futures. We can't control any overnight news. But the only thing we can control is our risk, right? Risk tolerance, risk exposure is absolutely everything. And if you don't feel comfortable, and that's exactly what happened to me around 11, 1130 today, Eastern time, right before lunchtime, if you don't feel comfortable, just get the hell out of the way. It's not your last day of trade. Clear your head, right? Again, you don't need to lose a massive amount of money to clear your head. Just clear your head, right? There's certain days you lose your edge throughout the year, right? This was the day for me. Again, you had a fist fight, literally a fist fight, right on the 50-day moving average. It was Rocky versus Ivan Drago. One guy gets down, the next time the guy gets up, he gets knocked down, yada, yada, yada, and nobody knows who the hell won the fight, because they all both look like an old catcher's mitt. Again, we'll see what happens tomorrow. We have our game plan ready. We know the bottom of the channels here. Is this tomorrow the next day that the day that bears finally prevail? Let's see, right, to be determined. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Stay blessed, right? Stay calm. Again, you don't need to trade every single day. It was a perfect example of it. And with God's help, tomorrow we'll get a little bit more seamless action and have a terrific day. Take care, everybody. Have a good night.