 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We talked already about the fun start to your Thursday with the master is about to get underway after a rain delay We talked some baseball over on the solo shop But tonight there is some good stuff cooking as well because we have got a couple of national TV games in the NBA and a Massive 10 game slate in the NHL as the regular seasons start to wind down We're gonna talk to Tom Vecchio today getting his read on both the NBA and NHL and letting you know Where he sees value for tonight at Fandall sportsbook. This is covering this spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here As mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one find his work at Fandall research And of course over on the daily ISO for the remaining two days of the NBA regular season as well Tom pleasure to get you back on the show today. How you doing? I'm doing good Yeah, super exciting time the final literal few days of the NBA season about a week and a half left for NHL Master starts today. I'm a be getting in full swing. My fancy team is doing good. Thank you to Mookie Betts I'm ready to roll. Did you get any masters bets in all see? I'll occasionally see slacks from you about about some golf stuff anything for this week or no I have Xander Shifley to win. I also have Tiger to miss the cut It's a very Tom bet like if you if you'd asked me not the Xander one I don't know but like I you'd asked me predict what Tom would say to my question I would have predicted Tiger to miss the cut. I think that was pretty predictable. Yeah, that's my night go-to and Didn't hit last year, but then he withdrew after like four or five holes in the third round So I'm not gonna say I was wrong. I just wasn't right at the right time. You were right at the wrong time That's that's how we'll go with it for that one I'm hoping to see Tiger play the weekend. It's always a little more funny if he's not super in contention But we'll see how things play out should be fun to see first tea time is about to come up here in the very near future We talked Tom about the NBA and NHL tonight in just one second Then I'll talk NASCAR in Texas a couple of top 10 bets on some teammates that I like later on as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow Massive UFC slay will break things down with Austin Swain getting his favorite bets for UFC 300 I believe that is tomorrow here on covering the spread that'll also be up on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV Plus after the fact if you want to watch Fandall TV plus go to fandall commas slash watch and log in with your Fandall account you can watch up and Adams run it back You can watch the ringer shows covering the spread daily iso solo shot PGA He check all in the same place and of course you can also find Fandall TV plus on your Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku devices as well Tom let's begin things over in the NBA where a pair of TNT games for tonight Of course a Fandall sportsbook have a 30% same game parley profit boost there get full details on that at Fandall sportsbook That's specifically for the two NBA on a TNT games nicks and Celtics Pelicans at Kings. Let's start things off with the nicks and the Celtics Tom anything stand out to you in that game So there's two perspectives for this game or two major things that need to be noted Number one the Celtics have four of their five starters listed as questionable Jason Tatum true holiday Jalen Brown and Chris stop for things all this is questionable. Derek White is the lone starter That's not listed as questionable the Celtics have nothing to play for they've had not just the number one seed in the east But the number one seed in the NBA locked up for quite some time at this point The nicks do have motivation to play and win they can jump to potentially the two-seat if the bucks fall They also want to secure the three-seat so We know what we're getting from the nicks Which is a ton of minutes from their starters and their best player Jalen Brunson has been Phenomenal this season. He's pouring in the points. He's going for 30 40 We saw a 60-point game from him a week and a half of going against this bird So Brunson over 37 and a half points plus assists This is a mark that you can very easily get to especially if we see a depleted Celtics team. He's going up against their backups So that's the first no and and this is a very straightforward spot for Brunson again He's gonna be out there for 35 38 40 minutes The next spot that I will say is Derek White He has been awesome the second half of the season when Tatum's out He steps up and drops double double when Brown's out same thing holiday poor thing is so depending on who's available for the Celtics Because again, they don't have priority to push their players out there Derek White is a very key player for me tonight depending on what the lines are and we it's just a wait and see So if we can get a double a double double player performance bonus He could do that in a losing effort. It doesn't matter for the Celtics a points plus assist bet That's where I'm gonna be looking for Derek White Okay, and the white props will not be up right now given all the uncertainty around the Celtics injuries So keep tabs on that potentially circle back to Derek White later on with the one that Tom does like right now Jalen Brunson over 37 and a half points a plus assist that is minus 111 at Fandalsports but second NBA and TNT game for tonight is the Pelicans at the Kings right now at Fandalsports book Kings are favorite by one. So it's like a pretty fun game low total here What are you looking for the second games tonight Tom? This is an awesome game to have for the for a national TV game Both teams need to play and win which is not something we can say about the other games on the slate not going to stay Portland Not bulls Detroit You know again nicks need to play that the Celtics don't both teams need to play and win So lower total tough defense miss shots Let's go to train Murphy for over six and a half rebounds Sitting up plus 104. He stepped up nicely with Brandon Brandon Ingram has been out of line of four a couple weeks train Murphy has stepped into some more minutes Also, you know filling the gaps He's not necessarily a big a big pure scourge because Zion Williamson and CJ McCallum are still there But he's doing his thing over this mark in seven out of the last ten games and again if we are trending towards the under That's what we're going to be seeing for the Sacramento Kings The total rebounds that they're allowing per game has jumped up recently is that 50 per game Which is actually pretty solid that has jumped up to 57 now They're actually playing slower and they're actually slightly better defense again It's so it's not like they're playing worse defense and they're giving them more rebounds It's a game environment thing where they're forcing more missed shots So the game environments are a little I don't say sloppier But it does the defense tends to lead to more rebounds and that's what we're seeing So more rebounds is good just because we're seeing tighter defense and that's where Murphy has been excelling as of late He mentioned that the defense being good as part of that But you also mentioned pace and obviously pace is a bad thing when it comes to a rebound mark I mean I've seen Murphy's number So over six and a half is now plus 108. So some movement towards the under here We've seen Does that concern you at all the fact that there has been a slower pace accompanying the rest of the components here? No, because his volume of minutes are still awesome in the mid to upper 30s His role is extremely secure with that And there's no reason that he shouldn't be out there and that leads me to just the opportunity of him having this capability so Like long story if this number moved to like plus 120 That's a different story red flag. That's where I would I would be a little more hesitant and that's where I would Maybe try and Find just go back to plus 104 right now. So no concern there Okay, so that's what we're so we're kind of all over the place I I think the the matchup and the priority the game is too much to overcome You know one or two pace games Yeah, it's something we have to take into consideration over the long term But just more rebounds is just too good of a spot to pass up All right, so murphy is back to plus 104 over six and a half rebounds That is for the pelicans and the kings plenty of other games and the nbh tonight as well though tom Where else has seen value for tonight? Uh, that's the prop I spoke about on the daily iso which is going to demar de rosen for the bulls Over 33 and a half points plus assists the bulls need to win They are on a two game losing streak and right now They are in danger of slipping into the tenth seed, which yeah, they're locked into the play-in But the ninth seed is home court and the tenth is not so they want to secure home court it over the hawks Demar de rosen is awesome He is a player that routinely gets to 30 plus points alone So I love when a player can get to a combo market on just one of the stats So when we know we can get to 35 points The assistor is going to naturally be there when he picks up five six even 10 in some of these recent games So a 27 and 10 game is not out of the question for him a game is not out of the question So I also a 30 and 8 kind of game is not out of the question So when we have an easy match against the pistons and a team that needs to play and win like the bulls do De Rosen as I've said before about him. He's the monster of the mid range It's not monsters the midway for the bulls It's monsters of mid range because he's so efficient from the field and doesn't need to rely on three pointers He gets to the rim and gets it done All right, so that is demar de rosen the points plus the assist proper fangirl sportsbook Over 32 and a half is minus 125 right now. That's an addition to trey murphy over six and a half rebounds at plus 104 and Jalen brunson over 37 and a half points plus assists. That is minus 111 Big slate in the nhl for tonight tom as well 10 total gains Let's start things off there by talking about the traditional markets any value for you in Puck lines totals etc for tonight Pittsburgh and detroit that number one game up there under six and a half Both of these teams are Fighting for the exact same thing which is the second wild card spot. Both teams are tied with 84 points This is not a literal must win because you know, we have about a week left in the season But it's about as close as we can get to a must win game for both of these teams because Obviously the head-to-head tie breakers becomes a factor as we get to this late in the season when they're tied in points now technically Detroit would have the tie breaker with 38 regulation or 38 total wins Pittsburgh's at 36 So this is where we see teams decrease the variance, which means Fewer shot attempts overall they want to like prevent this game from getting to a six to five game because that's just too much So this game ending two to one three to two on either side I'm not going to be surprised. I think this game's a bit of a coin flip You know minus 150 isn't that heavy of a line, but just solid defense for both teams That's why they're surging toward the playoffs specifically the penguins their defense has been solid And the red wings, you know, even with the young team, they're doing their part in terms of stepping up on defense So I do not see this as a exciting game in terms of scoring, but the intensity is going to be awesome tonight You mentioned about a week and a half left during the regular season for the nhl side of things You talked a lot about how totals are decreasing this time of year because Things tighten up both these teams looking to get into the playoffs So under six and a half right now minus one is 28 at vandal sportsbook Do we see things ratcheting up even a bit more in this final week and a half today? You've been talking about this for a month and a half now Do we see it to an even greater extent for this final stretch run here? in terms of totals, yeah Yeah, it's tough to it's tough to say because like if you just scroll down a little bit for some of these other games like Tampa is a big favorite. Florida is a massive home favorite Right, so Florida has to play and win the blue jackets have nothing to play for so the blue jackets have a lot of younger players being called up so sometimes the games get out of hand because the panthers just run up to score and they're awesome, but I when it comes to two teams that are in the same spot like the penguins and the red wings That's where I stick with unders. So I try and shy away from games where teams have completely different motivations, right where Detroit the devils jack you just got ruled out for the rest of the season. They're eliminated from the playoffs I wouldn't go near that game because if the may believes win that game six to two just because the score they run up the score That i'm not gonna be surprised with so I and I would be willing to go to maybe alt under five and a half for some of these really close games Okay, so the one that tom is recommending here for the wings and the penguins that is under six and a half goals minus 128 right now if and those four so potentially considering an alt under Five and a half as well so digging to see what the market is saying for that one. What about player props? What do you see in there for tonight? Despite being a 10 game slate, there's only two that I like as of now Uh, that would be going to the new york rangers with viny trochec over two and a half shots on goal The rangers top line center mika zbanajad got hit kind of up high in their most recent game He's not listed on the injury report. He's not listed on the concussion protocol yet Although I'm you know not fully confident that they need to push him out there and play So trochec is the center on the second line if zbanajad would get ruled out would not be surprised to see trochec jump up to the first line He's already averaging three shots on goal at home in the season Which is higher than his 2.2 that he averages on the road He's on the first power play unit. So he plays a very strong offensive role to begin with Could be elevated if we do see zbanajad out is a great matchup versus The flyers who right now are in an eight game losing streak. They are actually floundering at this point in the season And the rangers are coming off of a loss So we have a player who's better at home potentially seeing expanded offensive role against a very bad defense right now Let's say we get injury news later on that trochec will be on his traditional line for tonight Would you still be okay with over two and a half and minus 128? Yeah, totally. He is a mark. He's getting too consistently. He already averages three shots on goal at home Like I said, and he's on the second forward on in the first power play without any injuries So this is a mark that he can get to pretty standardly Uh with this matchup. Okay. So that's vinson trochec over two and a half shots on goal That is minus 128 in the rangers versus flyers game. You mentioned there's a second property like as well what's that one, uh, that's going for the islanders and Matt barzell to score a goal at plus one 75 over his last six games He has no goals despite having 20 shots on goal He's on the first forward line first power play the islanders have made this late season surge And they're currently holding down not just the wild card They've jumped into the three seed in the metro and this is a game that they have to win Like they are their spot is not secure and this is a very easy match up versus the habs tonight So a player that's shooting at this hive of volume And it's simply not scoring is a player that i'm always going to buy into Especially with a team that's this hot right now and he's picking with plenty assist Like he's doing his normal thing on offense. He's just not scored. So when we're seeing three and five Shots on goal over this last six games in multiple games. I mean, we're just talking about bad puck luck here So I will buy into variance Now being on the good side of him scoring a goal Okay, that is matthew barzell over or to score a goal plus one 75 the fan dual sports book in addition to The vinson trochec over two and a half shots minus 128 and the wings penguins under six and a half goals minus 128 as well That is tom vecchio Make sure you check him out on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one check out the daily iso over on the fan to research podcast feed For these final two weekdays of the regular season and what tom on monday to preview the play internment and plenty of talk about the nba and stanley cup playoffs as well Tom, appreciate the time as always enjoy today. Good luck with the zander bet bad luck to you at the tiger woods Bet we'll talk to you once again soon. Thanks for having me Alrighty again fine. Tom on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one has mentioned back with us again monday to preview The nba's play in tournament. We'll dive into nascar in texas here in just one second But first still time to get in those masters bets as you can live bet this tournament You can bet some round two three balls, etc. Etc. 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No value for me right now in the outright market if and dual sportsbook There is a bit on chris busher 28 to 1 a little bit on eric jones 85 to 1 Personally would rather wait until a post qualifying to get there just because we have a lack of data on this track type So far this year. So not going there for right now Yesterday when I wrote up my bedding guide over at fandall sportsbook So I a lot of value on long shots to finish inside the top 10 It was austin dillon 12 to 1 ricky stenhouse jr at 20 to 1 and zane smith down at 25 to 1 all those have since moved and unfortunately the Zane smith and stenhouse bets no longer values based on my numbers But the austin dillon 1 still is dillon is a plus 850 for a top 10 still like that and I like us team a 2 6 to 1 at fandall sportsbook. Let's begin. That's his teammate austin hill not his teammate call bush Let's talk about dillon side first plus 850 which is 10.5 implied. I've got him at 14.9 He is a former winner in texas partly or entirely Due to strategy and it was during a different era of the cup series. So I don't factor that in it's not my model basically at all but He he's still not terrible on this track type He's had only one top 20 so far this year, but that came in los vegas Which is the only other uh non drafting mile and a half track on the schedule so far Last year when dillon's form was also pretty poor. He still finished inside the top 10 in charlotte and kansas charlotte is a similar layout to texas kansas another mile and a half He's had a future start this year has been caught up in early crashes In a couple different races RCR in general this team is hideous on short tracks right now including kyle bush. So Haven't expected a lot from him. So honestly I feel like this is an overreaction to a lot of races that are not similar to what we'll have This weekend This is a track where speed matters more relative to the driver than what we've seen in recent tracks Which is a good thing for this three team So I think even down to plus 850 dillon is still worth the bets That's what we'll go first still going to dillon even though he has shortened to plus a 50 to finish inside the top 10 as mentioned though I also show value in his teammate austin hill hill is doing a One-off race richard chill this racing. He is a in the exceeding series typically You've heard me talk about him here on the show before But in exceeding driving for r cr He is really good on mile and a half tracks. He won los vegas last year He finished runner-up in texas the year before that finished fourth in vegas this year. So he's got skill And my model likes him more as a driver than it likes dillon So his odds for a top 10 actually higher than dillon's both in the betting markets, but also for me I've got hill at 16.5 for a top 10 He's six to one right now fandall sportsbook. That's 14.3 implied. So i'm fine with that So I did prefer things yesterday when I could get stenhouse smith and dillon had a better number But for right now if you're fresh to these betting markets fandall sportsbook I do like dillon plus a 50 austin hill six to one As my favorite bets for the nascar cup series this week We'll be talking Accidently and truck series over on feindal research Later on this week if you want my full simulations for those two races check those out feindal.com slash research That's all that we have here for today big Thank you once again to tom vechio for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on tonight's mda and hl Slate's fine tom on twitter at tom underscore vechio one I am on twitter at jim saunas. You can also follow fandall research on twitter at fandall research tomorrow usc 300 breakdown with austin swain looking forward to that We'll talk to all of you then to get you ready for what should be a very fun card This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network