 Yeah, sure. So we set up MicroHive around 2019, so around four years old, and we basically produced research analytics for investors around the world. More on the institutional side, so it's on the top hedge fund in the world, on the top banks, massive managers. Before that, I used to write research at Deutsche Bank, at the University Bank, in Edinburgh. I started off in finance in the late 1990s, so I've been around for a while, I've played for five years, looking at cost assets, so effects, rates, equities, top-down macros. It did look like at the start of this year that the Fed were going to go in March, because inflation had fallen a lot, so it seemed like the Fed just kept up inflation. But what's happened since then, since the start of January, is that the data had turned out to be really quite strong, where the retail sales, where the non-farm payrolls, it came out last Friday, the economic strength is very, very strong. At the same time, the inflation data, that's ticked up as well. And so the backdrop to the Fed meeting was one where things were turning up, both on the inflation side and the growth side, and essentially how the Fed press conference suggested that March is off the table. He also gave an interview at the weekend as well, where he indicated that March is very unlikely to happen. So this means that the Fed's first cut might need to be later, in May or June, subsequent meetings after March. Of course, it depends on the days or between, but at least when March seems very, very unlikely for the first cut. Sure, so if you look at the inflation rate in the US, the CDI, which is the common measure that people look at, within that the biggest drop is really coming from the good side, whether it's energy prices, or just goods in general, and stuff you buy on Amazon and such. So that's fallen a lot over the past six months or so. The question is whether that continues to drop, because that's the one that moves the fastest. So on that basis, our view is that on the energy side, we're actually fairly neutral on energy prices right now. We have slight bullish bias. Our view there is on the Middle East conflict side. I think people overstate the risks of Middle East oil prices themselves, because the key thing here is whether the conflicts are still involved, the production lines themselves, Saudi Arabia, for example, or Kuwait, or Qatar on the natural gas side, and that's at this stage unlikely to happen. What could happen is that you could have a missile strike against accidentally hitting tankers carrying oil spills over or something like that. So of course that's our risk, but overall our sense is in terms of the Middle East conflict, it's contained in the sense that it's not affecting oil supply themselves. Now the OPEC cuts are more significant, so that's more important that there are cuts happening, and that could lead to upsides and upsides pressure on oil. But we don't necessarily think there'll be a surge in oil prices. So that means that that source of inflation is unlikely to be there. So on balance then all good our view is that that's going to fall, but probably not as much as before into oil. Then the services side of the population is driven more by the broader economy, and our view on the economy is it's very strong overall. So my sense is the inflation picture won't be as positive in the next three or four months, i.e. it won't fall as much as people think, which suggests that the Fed will push Fed cuts further out. At the same time we think the economy is doing very well, employment is very strong in the US, wages are picking up, house prices even are starting to turn up as well, so the economy picture in the US is fairly robust. So again, that's another factor that suggests that the Fed will be able to wave a bit Yeah, I mean, in the end, this really comes down to the AI and the 1907 play that essentially the performance in the US stocks is really heavily concentrated to a few big tech companies and not even just the 1907 anymore, it's getting more and more an hour over there. So these have really pulled up the old performance of the S&P. So if you look at the S&P excluding the big tech companies, it hasn't actually performed that well. If you look at the Russell 2000, you know, broader index of small cap that's actually gone sideways for these people. So this tells you that the overall index is really good with my big tech, which in turn is driven partly by the AI story because big tech companies are driving the AI story and it's also driven by the fact that their earnings in general have been really strong and there's a push, a move to quality and these companies are those as well. So that's a general backdrop. My sense is that, you know, I think that the tech story probably has a bit further to go, but you know valuations are getting quite fresh. So that's one thing. And the AI theme itself, it's hard to know when theme will run out in completely. So I think that probably could last for the whole year. It's just very hard to predict when that theme will turn down. Certainly when I speak to clients, everybody is trying to implement some kind of AI strategy of some sort. So that tells me that maybe that could actually last the year. Yeah, I think on the bottom side, I think that bonds could struggle in the short term. So bond yields could go up, so bond prices will go down. I think that at least in the short term, that's certainly the direction I think we would expect. At the same time if the Fed will cut rates this year, that's going to push yields down. So overall my way of looking at this year is more like trading ranges of course this year quarter by quarter. So right now I think we're in a different environment and yields will go up. So one wants to be in that environment short bonds. And same on the dollar as well. I think right now we're in a bullish dollar environment because the US economy is doing well, the rest of the world is not doing as well, so that's a bullish dollar environment. But then at the same time, I don't think it's necessarily a trend. Yeah, I think the Bank of England will cut rates this year just like the Fed did. And I think the challenge with the UK is that for a while now, the pictures look likely for the UK in terms of the pass-through of client interest rates and mortgages and then actually impact household spending. For whatever reason that hasn't happened as much as people thought. So the UK economy has actually held up relatively well. And earlier today we had a fairly positive revisions to late marketation in the UK which suggests that the late market is stronger than what we anticipated. So for whatever reason the UK economy is doing well overall. Part of that I think is to do with how strong the late market is, is that people have jobs, they're using their jobs, they're using their jobs, that means high interest rates aren't affected as much as before. But overall my sense is that in the end the higher mortgage rates will chip away and people's purchasing power and so that means that the economy will weaken. Inflation is on the high side of the UK and that's partly to advise historic energy price increases, Brexit, things like that. But that is also coming down a bit as well. So my sense is that Bank of England probably will start to cut rates in May. There's a chance that they'll be delaying a bit. But you know, wait a minute. Consumers tables have certainly done quite well overall. And that just goes to, you know, number one it's, you can say it's a bit more defensive. Consumers discretionary. And at the same time they're yielding that sector is relatively attractive compared to other sectors as well. So I think it's a good mix between the defensive without necessarily being too recessionary. It's a good kind of middle road to play. More generally I think that a move towards quality makes a lot of sense and it helps many different sectors. So that helps some tech. It also helps some investment companies as well. Capital Equipment, things like that. So that's my sense as to how those sectors will generally do quite well. Because I think there's a couple of overall teams. One is there's push to quality. As people get worried about, you know, a substantial slowdown in the economy later on. And then also there's, there's some longer term teams. So for example, in the U.S. we have the Financial Production Act, which is leading to much more investment in the U.S. economy and more factory yielding. So that leads to a few pocket capital equipment. Then there's the energy transition as well, which is leading to investments as well. So that's a benefit sector associated with that as well. Yeah, on the chart side I think there's a couple of really, really interesting charts. You know, one I think is if you look at the U.S. yield curve and the level of inflation and the level of debt to the U.S. that just seems like it doesn't make sense. In the sense that normally we can have high levels of debt and relatively high levels of inflation, but you should see the steep yield curve, which means that 10 year yield should be higher than purely yield historically. That's a really wide gap. So at some point something's going to give unless there's some new paradigm that we're not aware of. The other one is more generally what you find is that the good sector, whatever measure of goods you want to look at, the manufacturing sector, durable, those sorts of things, versus the service sector, there's been this dichotomy between the two. The service sector overall has been holding up quite well, whereas the good sector's been relatively weak. And so that's also something that's quite important. It goes to one of the challenges we're all facing, which is that since COVID, the economy's getting to two, and those two economies have been, their cycles have moved in a different way. They've been desynchronized in essence, and that makes it harder to pull the cycle because if you look at the good sector, it looks a bit more recessionary, but then you look at the service sector, you look at the restaurants, it looks like they're looming, and it looks like a contradiction, but it's just the nature of the COVID shop is such a desynchronized economy. So that's another one that I'm looking at. And then the other one I think is, if you look at, say, something like US Kenya yields, and I'd say the dollar, you know, US Kenya yields recently fallen quite significantly over the last few days it's been tough. The dollar hasn't fallen as much, so that's interesting as well. That could be because the rest of the world has fallen, but that's quite a wide gap between you two. Yeah, my take is at least this year, we're going to have a soft-lamming, we're going to find as no recession this year. So that's my sense of this year at least. I think for us to see a recession this year, you really need to have some kind of external shock, whether it's an oil price spike, some kind of banking crisis that involves the whole economy, you know, something like that for that to happen. In the absence of that, the only thing that could cause a recession is if inflation suddenly picks up a lot and the Fed starts to hike again, and then suddenly that causes a recession, and that's not necessarily our base case. We are in the soft-lamming territory. There have been periods in the past, they've been in the 1990s where you had a period where the Fed hiked aggressively, then they went on cold cover there, and the economy did fine for about four or five years, and it was only a multiple of the dot-com crash five years later, then you had a recession, and even that recession was very mild. Yeah, for Japan, Japan's been one of those markets where everyone's been waiting for their hike. Now what they have done is they have adjusted one part of their policy, which is to control where they were pining long-term interest rates in Japan close to zero, but then a year or so ago they allowed that to essentially go up to 1%, and they essentially lifted that ceiling as well. So that's one type of timing they have done. What they haven't done is they haven't lifted their short-term policy rates. Every other country in the world has, and they haven't. And so there's a lot of speculation that they will this year. Inflation has been picking up in Japan, wages have been picking up, for them to raise rates. So my sense is they will raise rates to something this year. It could be in March, it could be in June, it's hard to say. But they've been very cautious in how they do this. So I think in the end they will hike rates, but they'll do it in a way where they won't allow people to price in too many further hikes afterwards. It's just their style of doing things is exit from zero rates and then do it in a way where the market doesn't think, okay, now there's 100,000 square miles to go. They did pick up, but they've started to soften a bit recently. So everyone's waiting for the spring wage negotiations, which typically see wages jump up again. So that spring is really the big period for us to be a signal. Yeah, I think there's a couple of different things. One is the inflation picture is probably the universal form thing. Because if inflation stops falling and starts to rise, then suddenly everyone narrative this year changes. It suddenly means Fed cards or ECV cuts or bank billing cuts and no longer on the table. So that changes all the story. After that, it's really growth. It's growth generally going to hold up okay, so we don't see recession. The other ones are earnings. So if you look at US valuations, they're fairly rich, and so earnings are quite well priced. So if we get earnings disappointment, so of course this year that would be a problem. And then the other one I focus on is China where the real picture on China is quite negative. Everyone's expecting not much from China. All the time the picture around is suddenly again a new growth engine for the world. Now our base case is no, they won't really do anything, but that's certainly a risk to everyone's views on the positive side. Yeah, I think gold is a tricky one. I mean sometimes it does behave like you're saving it, and other times it doesn't. Often it's very linked to the dollar as well. So the way I generally think about gold is there's three, say three overall banks that I look at for gold. One is the dollar. If the dollar's weak, the dollar's strong. The other one is interest rates, or real interest rates in particular, so real interest rates are falling, then gold goes up. And then third factor is central bank demand for gold, because they're a big player in the gold market. So at the moment, you know, our view is the dollar's on the stronger side, so that's bearish for the gold. Real interest rates in general have been kind of going sideways. You could say that's giving a neutral signal, and central bank demand has picked up a bit. So between all of these factors and the dollar was to start to weaken, and suddenly the picture becomes more volitional. Yeah, that's a good question. I think that people are probably not focusing as much on is the issue of kind of a level of debt that we have in governments around the world, and how that will be dealt with. So people are worth looking at the same three, four months ago, but all the conversations I have right now are gone pretty much. And I think it still is an issue, you know, how do you deal with too much debt? So I think that's one, one issue I think people are focusing as much on. I think the other one I think is probably China's inflation around the world, because if you look under the hood in China, what you find is that the production side of the economy is doing quite well, but the demand side is very weak. So you have this supply-demand imbalance where they're producing too much and there's not a demand to consume that production. So that leads to deflation then. You have to cut prices then to balance the supply demand. That's why inflation in China is very, very low. But then it also means that the world inflation falls, you know, China's exporting deflation to the rest of the world. So I think that dynamic is very interesting as well. Yeah, I would say they're creating more debt. They're not putting money so much anymore because they are not doing any more than in financial tightening. So the central bank itself is printing money rather than treasury. You just issue more and more debt. What's unusual in the case of the U.S. is that the level of borrowing the U.S. is doing, budget deficit is very large for an economy that's growing. Normally the deficit is at this level when you're in a recession, which is what you would expect. The tax revenue goes down, but the level of the deficit is historically unusual for the economy that's growing really well. So if you were to see a recession, budget deficit would get even larger to the level you've never seen before. Now, the problem with this is obviously your overall debt load. The amount of debt that our signing starts to grow when, you know, you're just going to overpay this. And then the other issue is who's going to buy the debt until you continue to do this. Now the moment people are happy to buy U.S. bonds, you know, partly because they think inflation is falling, it's good levels to buy, partly because people need treasuries for collateral. Since the global financial crisis, there's been a big regulation to push people to collateralize their trading. So everyone's got a whole more collateral than they trade to cover a margin cause and such so treasuries become more in demand. And then the other issue in the case of the U.S. is that the U.S. in some ways has been inflating away the debt problem where inflation is high and so that way your nominal growth level goes up due to a reduced debt to GDP ratio. So using inflation to get rid of the debt as well. Yeah, yeah, I mean regional banks it happened last year my collateral sense is that the banking sector overall while there will be mini blowouts here and there because we had a big banking crisis in 2008 and policy makers are very sensitive to bank problems and they've regulated them so much that as soon as they submit the problem they'll come in and stop the banks from escalating. So I don't think banking will be the big crisis. Now one area that curve is private markets they're much less regulated so you've seen a growth in private equity, in private credit I think all of those sectors could really provide some kind of risk to the overall system. The other one is just inflation inflation picks up that means the central bank will have to raise rates which will then crush the economy so that that for me is probably the biggest risk I would say that real estate has done surprisingly well given the infrastructure picked up I think that is partly to do with the fact that people aren't moving as much to the holding on so there's no setting partly also to do with the supply issue not with building houses so this is a very unusual situation I worry but overall I think that real estate is probably not a good sector to be positioned in. The only thing I would say is we touched on AI a bit and I do think there is something real within AI and while valuations may be stretched I do think AI is revolutionary in many different ways to where certainly do not work in AI on the machine learning side on the large language model side and I think one of the most interesting things on the chat and BT side is that there are ways for you to augment it with financial market intelligence so that it then can give you answers that are much more customised if you want financial markets and so suddenly you can have this partner co-pilot and really help you make more important decisions in the financial market so I think we're doing a lot of work in our space and hopefully we'll have something more sort of productions ready soon but I think that's going to potentially be very powerful for investors to get involved