 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. It doesn't matter where you're at. You could be in Poughkeepsie. You could be in Lutz. You could be in the Gulags of Canada. You could be anywhere. As long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So what do we have going on today? Well, let's just get to it. Why didn't we bottom yesterday? Why did I say yesterday and this morning in the newsletter, even with the S&P up 30 points that we were still looking for a low today? Well, there's a way that you make lows. And if you come, I don't talk about it. Probably should more about the power law vector indicator numbers. But generally what happens is, and I said it yesterday, you come down on lighter volume or on heavier volume. Excuse me. In some, I was trying to think what we were looking at. Maybe Boeing would be a good example. But the whole market is kind of like this. Let's get rid of that. What you want is if the energy is good on the way up, which it wasn't, then you want the energy on the backside leg or on the retest to come in on lighter energy. And you really didn't. Then Boeing is kind of a good example here and I'll show the move and why I didn't think so. But you get nice high on January 18th and you get the next low on January 28th. My power law vector indicator number shows 7.7 on the way down, 5.9 on the way up. Well, is at the end of the world, no. It doesn't mean you're going to blow through the previous low on that 183.77 on the way back. But it does mean that you really need to have some decent juice on the leg up and light volume on the way back. And this is just kind of a stand-in for the whole market. But more than half the stocks came back on at least the same level. So you've got two things. You can test lows on lighter volume and then you have all that real estate between the high and the low. Now that character of that volume coming in on the lows, even though if it does kind of peter out, get some lighter volume or something on some kind of low, if the energy is about the same or it's higher on the way back down, then generally you're going to consolidate those lows. You're not going to just make a V bottom. You're probably going to make something that looks more like a U bottom. Other things, of course, people leave my newsletter, get the sector oscillators. Most of those, one of the things I love about them is that it gives me a heads up about three to five days before we make significant lows and it's caught all of them in the last five years. It doesn't mean I want to buy the low. It does mean that we're going to have a significant low when you get in there. And that's just a super washed out indicator. But even with news, it almost always gives you about three to five days as a signal. Once everything is on one side of the aisle and we're talking about in those charts that I have, should I pull them up? I probably should. Where do I have it? Is that it? Hang on a second. I've been making lots of changes to my software, so give me just a second to bring this up. I don't have that implemented in this version. I don't think. That's why you should do these things beforehand, David. That's something I need to fix so I can do one at a time. I'm going to go ahead and do this. I'm going to go ahead and do this. I'm going to go ahead and do this. I'm going to go ahead and do this. I need to fix so I can do one at a time. Let's see. I can just run all of them. I can create all of them. And when they're done, I can show one. So we'll let it do that at the moment. In fact, put them up here and they'll just fly by as I'm creating them. What you'll see is I've got a short, medium, and long-term displaced moving average in these. And you can see from the, what was that one? Before the two, okay. So I'll go back and catch that one. But you'll see, there's several good ones out here. Around the 24th of last month is exactly what I'm looking for. You're going to have at least a couple of attempts to blow out the lows. And we only had really kind of one so far. Okay, is that done? One more two. I have 26 of them. One for every major sector in the market. As you can see, the metals kind of peeked out here a little bit. Probably not going to get huge. Let's find one of the other ones. Here's kind of the retail version. Here it is, the junior gold miners. When you get a really good wash out in this, you're going to get this one, it was like the 24th through the, almost the 1st of February. You're going to get everybody on one side of the moving average. And these charts are basically how many stocks in that ETF are above or below those different ones. So I've got a short, medium, and long-term. The long-term is a 25 by 5 displaced moving average. As shown, or as explained by Joe Denappoli. And that's just taking a 25-day average and pushing it off five days into the future. So you take the last 25 days and it puts it out there a little bit. Anyway, the big bars here are kind of the, I'm going to call them gray. I'm about half color blind. These bars here are kind of like when the markets is bouncing around. That's kind of support resistance. These at the top are wash out, you four it buys, and at the bottom are wash outs. So you can see in the gold miners how we had a really great wash out that lasted about five or six days. But what you're going to get is you're going to get all three of those to go hit on one side of the fence. And you're going to start seeing that it takes about four or five days, three days maybe at a minimum, five days maximum on that side before everybody's washed out. So when we go, we'll look at a few more of these here today. That's a good example. What I'm looking for is that, you know, three or five days where everything's just on one side. We'll look at this when we come back. David White's Trading Newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's Ultimate Trading Newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the Path of Least Resistance at TFNN, Educating Investors. That's right. Information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market-profile-based scanner. Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms, this feature-rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500-plus global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures, and forex. This powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades before they happen. For a limited time, you can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code Upgrade, and you still get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Level the playing field with the TAS Profile Scanner, which you can find under the Services tab at TFNN.com. Sign up today. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, Educating Investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. We'll look at some more charts in those sector oscillators, but we're going to go to Steve and Ann Arbor. How you doing today? Good, how are you, Dave? Another day in paradise, the air conditioning's back on, the pools in the upper 80s, the sun's out. Excellent. Hey, I was wondering if you thought that Pfizer was going to go down the $10, which stock options would you play for September 2022 exploration? September, huh? You think 10 bucks? Yeah. What makes you think 10 bucks? Well, I don't know if we'd be allowed to talk about it on there. It can be either political reasons or legal reasons. I think legal, but probably a combination of both. I talked about it yesterday or the day before. I can't remember either Friday. These guys have a, I didn't know what you were thinking of here. They do have a absolute mountain of liability. I think it was yesterday because I vaguely remember that I think I brought it up, that I was talking to a bunch of attorneys in this business at the Daytona 500, and they're all knee-deep in this stuff because they see a never-ending well of cash. A lot with a lot of stuff that was done and some whistleblowers. I don't think we can say anything that YouTube didn't like, but I think as long as it's legal, I think we can say what we know in the rumors that are out there. There's a lot of these guys that are probably going to lose their CEOs and stuff like that. From my understanding talking to them, Pfizer is one of the poster child because they do have a whistleblower. I would say a couple of things from history is that these legal issues tend to last a long time, and people after the initial discussion of them and all hitting the press tend to forget it because it takes a couple of years for these things to percolate through the courts and everybody forgets it. Here's what I would be looking for. Just on a chart basis, you're coming back into the November 5th gap higher with 174 million shares with 13 million shares. I'm not going to be a fan of buying them now. What I want to see is a light-volume pop. That being said, you've got this big gap here. If you're looking for the pop on this, it's probably about 45-50. Something like that is where this thing will bottom out. That's about halfway through that gap. You're probably going to bounce back up to something like 52, and there, if the volume is light, which I expect it probably to be, that's where I would probably start looking at going after them. Which ones were you thinking? That's exactly my thoughts. I was waiting until probably middle of March or so because that's what I see on the charts as well, that there will be some kind of a rally at that point in time, but I'm really not sure which ones I don't have one in particular as far as the strike price. You've got a little bit of a three-gap place setting up here, and that would take it from the 47 here, or whatever that is, 46-50 or 46 bucks or whatever it is, if it bottoms about halfway in there. You've got a three-gap place set up here. This isn't a big one, but my guess is it would fill all three of those gaps. 52-50 is where you want to take a look at it, light volume up there, and that would be it. One of the other things that I like to look at, we'll go with the overlays here. That's a seven-by-five. Let's go back to three-by-three. What you want this thing to do is go back above the three-by-three, stay above it for a while, go a little bit below it, go back up, and then close back below it again. If you don't have a three-by-three, you can use a nine-day. What I want, because I do think you're right on this, but probably longer term, is get up to about 52.5, maybe 53, have all the volume fall out, have it pull back a little bit, go back up again one more time, even lighter volume, and then the next move underneath that nine-day or three-by-three. The patterns I like aren't ones that develop every time, but generally you've got such a high batting average on that double repo pattern. It's the only ones I play. Have you been on when I've talked about the double repo? I mean, yeah, I've listened to you for a while. Okay, for those people that are new here, I basically trade through an amalgamation of several folks. I learned a lot from Tim Orton and Joe DiNappoli. I always laugh that Joe DiNappoli told me that it was impossible to do Gartley patterns and, well, not Gartley patterns. His confluence patterns automatically. Of course, I had already had done it in the art of the timing trade charts, and I thought it was very interesting. He told me it couldn't be done. I said, is it not going to do it perfectly? No, but you don't have time to do a thousand of them a day if you're all doing them by hand. And two, there's a lot of room for people to come in and have their own bias injected into those where if you do it mechanically, for the most part, it's fairly easy. Let's do this, retracements. So, here's another good example. Did I do this right? Here's another good example of what to look at here in Pfizer. Did I answer your question? I felt like I just went off the range somewhere. No, no, no, it was actually very interesting. It's all good. Here's the reason. Did you notice anything unusual at September the different strike prices and if you notice anything unusual and which ones for that timeframe that you may consider? Well, the only thing I see generally is everybody crowing about unusual activity on stocks on CNBC, and they all turn to nothing. So, you know, I'm just figuring that a lot of those guys talk about unusual activity and options and stuff. I think they're just getting paid off by the people in the market to sell lots of options. Last week, was it last week, they were all deciding that they had to go full long on 900 Google, not Google, Tesla calls. And they were buying, you know, 50,000 of them or whatever, right? And I thought, this is one more time into the breach. You might as well be sticking your head into a lion's mouth. I want to talk to you a little bit more about this if you can hang on, because I wanted to show you this confidence, the two confidence areas out here in Pfizer for you, okay? All right. Thanks. Back in a minute. Are you having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows. 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And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. With Steve and Ann Arbor? Still there, Steve? Yeah, I'm still here, Dave. Are you watching on Tiger TV or on YouTube? Yes, it's on YouTube. Okay. I'm showing... I don't know how long it's delayed, but I'm showing Pfizer here. And it's on Pfizer if anybody's tuning in for the first time. One of the things I like are these confluence areas. And confluence areas were I think at least partially a Joe DiNappoli thing too. And that is instead of just using individual Fibonacci ratios, you use the Fibonacci between two major moves. And if the 618 and 382 of the bigger and the smaller one, as I'm showing out here get fairly close, then they are fairly good targets for supply and resistance. Support and resistance. And what I love is when you get one of those together and you get a gap together, and then you put that together with volume. So there's a lot of stuff. You know, when you get three or four things all pointing to a number or a range like this, it's pretty good. Generally, if you want a short-cell number, if you're looking for something like probably 50 cents in Pfizer, this is $51.76 to 60... Yeah, 62, excuse me, 52, so it's about 80 cents. It's a little wide. The tighter those get, the better. And you'll see how many times they just go up there and hit it exactly. Individual Fibonacci's are not that good. Double gaps, confluence levels are... When you put multiple things together, those things tend to work a lot better. There's only a single gap, but you do have the confluence right there at 52, up to 52.66. So, you know, you get 52.66 and you want it to be short this thing and the volumes light on the move back up. That's where you're looking. All right. Does that make sense? I'll go into... Okay, you bet. I'm going to go into... Thanks for the call. I'm going to go into one of the things I was talking about why I didn't think today or yesterday, afternoon or today earlier, and we might find a low maybe late today in the newsletter, was looking at these moves in the IBB, again, why I don't think Pfizer is bottomed even though it's got light volume. And that is, you're probably going to come back and do the same kind of thing, which is you're going to have these of washing everybody out. Now, the volumes light, but you still have some stuff. Now, let's go to some of the other ones out here. I think I should have the S&P. I think it's on the other side here. Okay. Here's the S&P. Again, these things tend to lead by about three or four days. And even though we came with light volume, looking down through these levels, and this shaded area in my sector oscillators are kind of where the thing should stop. And you can see where it stopped here in the S&Ps on the 14th in this one. And then you had the little rally and then gave it all up back up, right? Generally, you want some sideways action or some consolidation and you can see that back here in January about 24th through the about what is it, 31st or so back here. You went sideways, you were washing out, every time someone tried to do something, it did nothing. Those are some really nice bottoms to buy and you get generally one more push, but you know that you're going to have three or five days. If you're trying to hang on to a stock and it's not doing well, it's probably just going to get worse for three to five days and then it's kind of done. If we go back and look at the previous one, which is the end of November, same kind of thing. You get down into these oversold levels and at this point everything is on one side of the moving averages of the displaced moving averages. So that's where you start getting it, but you know, I don't, you don't have a lot of instant V lows out here when they're washing everybody out at the lows. Now maybe we get, maybe it breaks and goes lower, but at best what you want to do is hold your breath, sit on your hands if you're trying to go long for more than, you know, six hours. Because I write a newsletter and it takes 15 or 30 minutes to get it to you guys. If you're talking about trading on five minute bars, that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about on these, everybody bidding on one side, having to go home every night because really we're kind of market psychologists. Not so much, well, we are traders but we're traders based on trying to get the psychology of the market from charts so that we have a little bit of distance from whatever our internal mechanisms are for how we interpret the world and the news and whether the cat threw up on the carpet or all the other things to happen in our life charts do help to separate us. But what this means is generally they don't let suckers out when they're throwing the baby out with the bathwater. It takes about three to five days. So we're kind of there now. Now I thought maybe we could have a V bottom today if we didn't break through but already yesterday we did break through on the short term one and generally the other two will follow and that's one of the reasons why I am not long today and why I put that in the newsletter because I had a couple of people ask me why I thought with the S&P up 30 or 40 points early in the morning why I thought that this would just reverse one more time and that's it. Once you get down there a lot of times you get instant one day reversals and a good example is this 24th of January out here. It looked like everything was over. You're back up then you have two or three days going sideways and this is going to do something well it finally burns itself out you get a little bit of rally. You get a double top and you come back down here. Now is there a lot of volume? No but you're going to have to sit on your hands until you get a really good signal. Maybe it's three days maybe it's five days but being the 23rd let's say that it was three days that really takes you into the 28th or the first of March and it may take that long to get back into fun buying and some other stuff. I'm not a big fan of being long here for very long. I'm thinking that long trades maybe three or four days on some decent significant lows maybe five days but we got a market where literally everything is going against you so looking for even though with these light volumes out of a bounce maybe in the next few days getting back up higher these things are going to fail a little bit higher maybe and if they do then Katie bar the door when we go out and blow out we'll be back in a minute. we'll be back. Call us today. Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week. You can get the technology insider at TFNN.com for only $37 and 50 cents. Sign up for Dave's newsletter, the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer. Try it risk free today with our 30 day money back guarantee. TFNN, educating investors. Are China A shares hot or not? China A shares now may be time to take a closer look. 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I can't remember that band. I think they're one hit wonder but not sure. Anyway, as I said we're looking at some kind of a low out here. The semis same kind of thing but you tend to get oversold from John Maynard Keynes. A market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent but my guess is we're going to have the same thing here for a couple of days and that is just going to test and try the will of men's soul. No, it wasn't. Gordon Lightfoot, you nitwit. I'm going to say the bottom drops! Citizen King Better Days I wish I could play it now but of course we all know what kind of folks people are on youtube and they don't believe in the fair use because I just played ten seconds but Citizen King Better Days and the bottom drops out. my musical toast to what's going on here today. Anyway, a couple of days out here, big things we should be watching for, of course, is volume. We need about 18 billion to really blow out this low, so the longer that we have lighter volume below 18 billion on the day is good for setting up a low. That's why I'm still a little bit very short term, bullish once this comes in. We got about 7.7 billion shares now at 244 Eastern time, or market time as it's known, or Florida time, or God's time because you live in Florida. Anyway, 7.7 billion shares, you really need about 15 to 18 billion to get going, so we're about half that now. We're probably going to do about 11 billion shares. Yeah, we could get a fairly decent bounce out of here, but it's probably, like I said, just sit on your hands if you're thinking about going long, wait for the good signal, wait for a couple of days. There are some bright stars out there. Someone brought up Amazon in the den, and this is really what I like out here, so we'll turn this off here so it makes it look a little bit better. But one of the reasons I picked the charting module that I wrote the art of timing trade charts in is because it did transparencies, and it allowed me to really easily see when we had multiple gaps in a stock. And if you break out and go higher and you have a lot of energy, come back with nothing, then generally the best place to buy it is about halfway into that gap. Now, could we get a little bit more into this to make halfway 2900 round number on Amazon? We could, but my guess is we're probably fairly close within 20 bucks, probably of Amazon making some kind of low here. We'd need some kind of biblical event, frogs, blood in the rivers, locusts, packs of locusts, that kind of stuff, real wrath of God stuff, dogs living with cats out here. But that actually does not look bad. Out here you've got about half the volume so far you had yesterday. It wasn't a big day yesterday, but it's light volume and you're back into these. I just, in a bear market, you get a handful of days that lows. In bull markets, you had five minutes to buy the thing in it. Now in a bear market, which I believe we're in, you have a handful of days to wait and the more patience you show, either staying short or waiting to get long, it is better off. Gordon Lightfoot. Where did that come from? Pig's flying. I don't know. What did I say to generate that? 877-927-6648. You can be just like Steve from Ann Arbor and beyond the show. And maybe touch on something that makes me think about something and explain my thinking on a great deal of this. There is a lot. I probably don't spend enough time explaining it all, but Lucy's got explaining to do. I've got trading to do. Anyway, 7.7 billion shares as we speak. It's called 7.8 on the CBOE consolidated tape. If you want a link to that, give me an email at pathtfnn.com. In fact, I think we've got some stuff here. With VIX index well below the December and January highs, would it make any sense to make the low versus a low? Not exactly sure what you're pointing at here, Pete. I'm not a big fan of picking specific levels out here for the VIX as mostly because it depends on where you start. It's like a summation index. That's a 24 and 36 day moving average of the cost of out of the money puts and calls just the premiums since there's no intrinsic value. And it depends how long it's been going on. So you get a lot of front-weighted down days. It can remain fairly, it is an exponential moving average. Yeah, it's 36 and 24 days, I think. Last time I looked. But yeah, it can remain weighted for a while. In fact, let's take a quick look here. I don't know if this is current. Let's take a quick look here. It's a little, this is delayed. I don't know why. I've never bothered. I can use the UVXY as a better indication of real time. So I haven't felt like paying for real time VIX. It's up 4.4% at 30.07. So yeah, I don't know if there's a whole lot to do that. But yeah, you're probably going to have a big spike. Generally, well, do during the day to keep a close eye on it is I will use the UVXY. It tends to lead the underlying and tell people which way they're going earlier. So you're up today and you're probably going to have similar volume the last three or four days. You're a little less than 150 billion shares on February 15th. This doesn't tend to stop as well on volume. I think we're close. Like I said, maybe a day or two away out here, maybe three. Be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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So I got two to get in here. The first is just something that reminds me of something that Tom O'Brien said. I started trading in 76 and went full time in October 98 and really haven't looked back. But as we got to around 2000, Tom said one thing. And that was, he said several things. But one of the things you want to be thinking about is until you've gone through a few of these cycles, you really won't understand them. And at one is generally not good enough. But remember, probably 80% of the people in the market right now, maybe 70%, were never in the market in 2008 or 2009. And they really don't know what a bear market is or how it works or what it does. 2008 probably also an outlier. Everybody just assumes that everything fell out all at once. That's not generally the way long-term bear markets are. So just know that most people don't understand the difference between the two and haven't traded both of them. And you really have to be in this business for a while and go through a couple of them to really understand them. A question from Richard. The buyers come from at the lows or is the lack of sellers? It can be either. It's a lot of supply and demand, either one. But generally, great lows are made on lack of interest. And that means lighter volume. Everybody giving up on selling. You don't get a lot of movement. They torture them for a handful of days and bear markets. Finally get up and then you can get a bottom not like yesterday's, but one where it slowly goes up over a series of days. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll be back like a bad rash tomorrow. Same bad channel. Safe.