 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesatrader.com. Nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing okay. So we talked about last night distribution, right? If you will go back to last night's video, you kind of get a good sense of what we were talking about. Again, big run in the market, especially let's talk about the Q's and especially individually. Big, big run. We reclaimed the 20 day moving average, which was obviously a big deal. And now we're resting, right? We talked about this on the video yesterday and now we are resting. Like we said, there's going to be weakness in the tape when we saw the majority of the day. We saw some strength in the tape at the beginning of the opening. And the moral of the story is nobody had a rational stake into what's going on. But this is again why we have technical analysis that we don't need to guess what happens next. And if you guys remember going to the weekend video, the big number here was that 302 level on the close. That represented the 20 day moving average. And why the 20 day moving average is important. Again, like we talked about in previous videos, this is the last time we had this pretty big run here. And probably the more almost exclusively the biggest run we've had in this last five months of downward bias since we've been below the 50 day moving average. The only difference between this run that started in January, February, March 16 and the one that we are still to be determined here is that run was linear. It was literally one after another after another after another until it finally gassed out at the top of the range here. Here's a little bit differently because the fact that we had such a big run from the bottom of the range of 282. So by the time we got to 302, by the time we closed on Friday at 309 and a quarter, remember we were seven points away from the bottom of the channel. So any retrace back to rising support where it got reclaimed, it was going to be normal. It was going to be absolutely normal and that was going to cause a distribution effect. Not enough fear to take the market down and not enough emphasis, right? Not enough exaggeration for average two ranges to expand because the market is tired and here we are. It's exactly how the day played out today. A couple of bounces, one really good pivot on Amazon at the open. We'll get to that in a second, but more important, it did kind of play out that way. The longer that we sit above this 20-day moving average that we reclaimed last Friday, the higher probability that we will start the next leg up. Now there's a flip side to this. Remember guys, we don't speak with rose-colored glasses. We talk facts, we talk data and we talk reality. So there's a reality to this again. So the market in the last couple of days looks very, very tired and that's normal. The tape today, if you look both on the spies and you look both on the cues, they both came down and tested major support. You can see here by the cues, right? It came right back down to the 20-day support and they bounced. The spies came down to the 5-day support, right? You see this right here? 5-day slash 20-day support and bounced. The question is, what happens next? And here's the good part. Distribution, like I said last night in the video, it probably lasts for about four days. Today was day, what was today? Today was day, what were they? Today was day one, two or three, right? I think today was day two. Today is day two. Manageable, tradable. You have to be very, very specific, know exactly what you want, specifically on bounces. Sneaky channels, this and the third. The point is it was definitely tradable, but if you looked for some meaningful move one way or another, for example, if you try to short weakness into the rising support, whether it's a 20-day moving average on both the cues and the spies, and you shorten them, you don't know that demand is there. You've got to run over in the afternoon. But more important is now we don't have to get it. So the next logical step is what happens next, right? We know the top of the area here, right? The top of the chat here is, you're talking about roughly around the 312, 313 level. But what happens if it doesn't do that, right? What happens if the market completely gasses out and starts losing pivotal levels back, right? We're not wishing one way or another. Again, I'd like to see this market have a little bit of legs. I kind of enjoyed myself for the last two, three days. There's some pretty good moves to the upside. Let's, you know, let's roll with this for a couple, you know, let's roll with this for a little while. Let's see how high it goes. But at the same time, I understand where the big picture is and the big picture still continues to be, we are still rallying in a bear market. How do you know we're in the bear market? We're still below the 50-day moving average. So the narrative here hasn't changed. You know, like we said, when we first reclaimed the 20-day, here we went on a three-week run. So far we've been on a three-day pregnant pause above the 20-day moving average. The question is, how high can we extend? But the other question is, what happens if we stop, right? What happens if we give back the bottom of the range? We have to know what our specific levels are. So here are the specific levels. Again, there's certain parts of technical analysis that I don't believe if you're a new trader. I get it. You want to be right. You want to show everybody how smart you are, that you belong and this, that and the third. But technical analysis is not subjective. Above demand is bullish. Below supply, right? Below supply is bearish. So here's the over and under, right? Everybody see this rising support here on the five, right? These are the cues. You see this rising support? If the cues lose 302 on the close, there's nothing to talk about, guys, right? There's literally nothing to talk about. If we give back, if we close below this rising support, which will be probably above, will be probably around 303 tomorrow on the rise, if we close below 303 on a close, that's no good. We're going to start going right back down. However, in a really good proactive way, and again, this is why we talk about to be prepared on both sides of the market. If we can get a washout, right? And it's very, very important to understand. If we can get a washout, right? They open the market lower. They wash out somewhere between this 300 and close above this 303 area. You'll know they trap the shorts. They held the top of the range once again, and then it will just be a matter of time they'll start squeezing back. I think tomorrow, you know, I don't want to put more emphasis on it. There has to be, I still think tomorrow you have to be super-duper patient in kind of your approach, just because how sensitive this area is. Remember, overall picture, we're still in a bare market. So it's very, very important to understand the dynamics. And we started seeing a lot of names today, you know, really fizzle out. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second, but dramatic moves from their highs back to the lows, and that's not an accident, right? If the market was super-duper good, and this is kind of we're digesting super bullish gains, then you turn around and say, you know what, I want to give the market two, three, four days to kind of get a sea-legs together. When you're sitting in the middle of the spin cycle with five months underneath the 50-day moving average, for the most part, you can't allow the market to give you that much rope, so you have to be conscious of those levels. Same thing on the spies, right? Let's actually, yeah, let's use the spies. So if you notice the spies, the low today was 406. Why was that important, right? Look where the low is, right? 406, that's the 20-day moving average. If the spies start losing 406, that's not good, guys. Again, that's not subjective. If we close tomorrow below 406, again, you have to rethink the narrative, you have to rethink the sentiment, and kind of rethink your approach, because, again, prices are going to depreciate just because, again, we'll be back underneath supply. So yeah, I think tomorrow we kind of want to watch things. We want to watch both sides. We want to see price action take place on those levels again, because the longer they test those levels and still survive and reclaim and build, the higher probability that this 20-day break will not be a fluke, right? It will not be just a couple of day rental on the bullish space, or maybe it'll turn into something more. Again, to be determined. I don't know. This is why we always talk about, we're not trying to predict the future, what happens six months from now, okay? We don't know what happens when Amazon splits, I believe, on Thursday night into Friday. We don't know, right? Your guess is, well, at $125, $123, it's a steal. It's not a steal. It's the same price, the same valuation. Just the price starts, the price, the price is cheaper, right? There's nothing to do about valuation. $120 is still, you know, it's still a $2400 stock. So the most important part of the next couple of days is watch the price action, attack those levels. They're either going to sustain or lose those levels. That's not something every day you see. It's not something usually play out every single day. But if that starts to happen, then you have to start look at some price action below that. And if you look at the retailers, and this is kind of, we'll kind of give you some ideas for tomorrow. If you look at some of the retailers, they've already lost the key levels, right? Raw store, it blew up on earnings just like a lot of levels, right? You know, check this out. You know, this thing already lost a five-day moving average. If raw store tomorrow confirms down, again, it's not going to make a difference with the rest of the Nasdaq 100 does. If raw store here confirms this channel down, I mean, look how much room it has to its earnings low. Look at Costco, right? Same thing with Costco. Check this out. Same thing. Costco closed right at the five-day moving average. Again, it's the shortest term sentiment. If it loses this channel tomorrow, again, this thing can get hit as well. So there's definitely levels in different parts of the market that we can definitely appreciate and take advantage of while the markets, the ETFs, the broad-based indexes are trying to figure themselves out. And again, like, you know, we've been watching Tesla and there's been some great opportunities in Tesla, both long and short in the last couple of weeks. But you know, and who's to say, right? Who's to say, you know, Tesla has to break above this channel here. Why can't Tesla lose the five-day moving average and go right back down? We did see some aggressive put buying. We did see some weekly 700s. We saw some deep out of the money. 650s, even some 500s, you know, down the road. So there's nothing set in stone in this market. And this is why, again, I say, no matter what you're doing, no matter what your trading is, at least be prepared for tomorrow. We don't know what's going to happen next week, Thursday, Friday, next Thursday, next Boomerang Day, next Groundhog's Day. We don't know, right? There's too many days. But we do have control of price action. We do have control of data in front of us. What's going to happen for the next day? And that's the most important part. So, again, really quickly review. Cues or watching that 303 on the close. Any close above 303, again, is deemed bullish until it's not on the spies. Any close below 406 is a big, big red flag until it stops defending that level. Like it defended it perfectly, it'll be fine. So those are the levels. Again, no matter how you're trading, make sure you're adjusting to your reality. Again, when the market broke the 50-day moving average for the first time around, and I made the whole video and say, hey, this is the first close below the 50-day moving average, make sure your cards, make sure your house is in order. It's going to be too late three months from now. Yada, yada, yada, it's too late. So let's talk about the pivots for today. Again, the market kind of played out. The market kind of played out just like we talked about, distribution up and down, up and down. But again, if you're prepared, if you are prepared for the day, you're going to be fine. And that's the most important part, both long and short. Yesterday, so I missed that 130 million-point rally on Amazon today. Knock on wood. Everything worked out perfectly. 2446 for experienced traders needs to build for a move to the 2480s. This was seamless, and this was beautiful, beautiful. Amazon has been just an absolute monster. So here is the pivot right here. Here is the whole pivot right here. This 2445 area, 2446 area, and just exploded. At one point, it went through the 2480s, went to 2503, and then obviously came back in. Again, there's a lot of anticipation. Hey, I'm excited. I'm curious to see what the stock is going to look like after it splits. Hey, between this and Google, hey, who knows? Maybe we have a whole different world to watch. Qualcomm 143 needs to build. Stopped at 4390. Airbnb needs to build 124, never got there. RU, 1350, never got there. Netflix, nice little move on Netflix. 200 needs to build. Here is Netflix. Here is Netflix, took out 200, and went right to supply. We talked about 202. We talked about 202.70s. It stopped right at 202.70s. Again, this is where technical sellers meet emotional buyers and vice versa when you flip the chart around. Again, you have to know where your channels are. Got a big move, went up about five bucks. Obviously, NVIDIA never got up there. Here is the perfect, absolutely perfect move. Like I say in beta all the time. You just need one. Here comes Netflix, 202.70s next measure potential. It stopped at 202.74. Here's the bounce. Here's in bounce, 5-day 303. Again, which it didn't get there. For all you guys who took the bounce off the spies, here's the 5-day bounce. It reclaimed the 408. It closed nicely. Here's the bounce on spies off that 408 level. It closed at 409.50s. It actually got to like 411 and changed before a little bit of a sellout into the close. We're kind of set up here. A lot of times during your career you're going to be very, very decisive. It's going to be a very, very clean picture. When you're going through distribution, a lot of times you have to trade less but watch more, right? Think more and react less. It's one of those processes, one of those unwritten rules of trading that it's probably not going to show up in the scoreboard, but it's like, again, when you collect as much data as possible, at some point it's going to help you not hurt you. So guys, have a great night everybody. Let's see if we can get a definitive line in the sand tomorrow. Long, short, let's see what happens and the most important part is stay in business. I'll see you all tomorrow.