 What's up, guys? I got a special video for you today. I got my good friend Brad Mills. Now, Brad Mills, he is a serial entrepreneur, startup advisor, seed investor, and cryptocurrency expert trader. In fact, Brad is a guy that I go to for advice when it comes to all this craziness in the whole crypto verse. Brad, welcome to the show. Thanks, sir. How are you doing? Well, I'm pretty good, man. I've been paying close attention to this crypto market and maybe, you know, you and I were talking about this, but maybe upcoming bubble, man. What's your opinion about that? Well, so I think that for sure, there's a bubble forming in some of the cryptocurrencies. And I'm not so sure that there's a bubble in Bitcoin. I think that if you look at the growth that Bitcoin had in 2011, when it went from like a dollar to like $30 and then popped down to two bucks, and then you look at it when it happened again in 2013, it went from like 100 to like 1100 or whatever it was in a matter of a few months. And then it popped and then slowly went down over the next year to like $200. It's been since 2014, it's been slowly growing as the fundamentals have gotten better. And as people started using it more and more, and the network was built, VCs were investing in the infrastructure of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, $100 million invested over that sort of dormant period from 2014, 2015. And Bitcoin started to grow. And, you know, the price was not valued properly for most of 2016 until we started to run up from the, you know, 500 bucks up to like $1,000 at the end of 2016. And now we started to see more real fast growth as Bitcoin becomes money in Japan and big, big companies are starting to accept Bitcoin. And, you know, you see a lot of fundamentals for Bitcoin. So the price is super high right now in Canadian. It's like $4,000, a little bit under as we had like a $300 correction today. But I don't see that as a bubble yet. If you chart Bitcoin on like a regular linear graph, it looks like it's doing this, right? It looks like it's a straight sort of line up. But if you chart it logarithmically, which sort of compares the relative growth in like a percentage wise, logarithmically, we had a bubble in 2011, we had a bubble in 2013 because the like amount of growth was like 10x, 15x, right, in a matter of a couple of months. If you look at Bitcoin price logarithmically and sort of as a relative price compared to the last all time high, we're only at about 3x right now from say like six months, right? So, and I'm just sort of using loose numbers. So I'm getting these numbers wrong. Don't hate me. But I don't think, I think, you know, $10,000 of Bitcoin, that's bubble territory for Bitcoin. If we were at $10,000 right now, or if we instantly see a run up to $10,000, I mean, we're going to see a price correction probably down to like $1,200 or so. But so Bitcoin itself right now, I don't see as a bubble. Now we've got other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, ICOs, Ripple, like we're seeing hockey stick growth for the entire cryptocurrency market. What was it $20 billion or something at the beginning of 2017? Was it $20 billion or $40 billion or whatever? I don't know. But we're up to like $110 billion today. You know, in the matter of like three months, we've seen insane money come into the space, but even more insane growth. So it has to be a bubble forming in cryptocurrency in general. So it's just a matter of finding out like how big is this bubble? Can we sustain this kind of price growth? And when is it going to pop? That's kind of like what my, you know, that keeps me up at night as a portfolio manager managing my own and some friends and family money. And also as a fund sort of manager for Alphabet, you know, we kind of have to try to stay ahead of the game by at least two weeks. So that's the big question is like when is this going to pop or correct? And how strong is it going to be? And what type of risk can you afford to take to expose yourself to the insane gains that have been in this cryptocurrency bullmark? And since the beginning of 2016, you know, what's the reward there? The reward is obviously bananas. Like the amount of money being made right now by just random people who are just throwing their money. I saw that post you made. It's like some 15 year old kid making millions of dollars in India. Yeah, this kid, he's a 19 year old kid and he's kind of like a young hustler, you know, he's the sort of like, if you would think that back to like, you know, the 1980s futures boom and even the turn of the century, 1900s stock market booms and the tech bubble in 2000, like now cryptocurrency is sort of experiencing that same crazy like FOMO and everybody's making money. But now it's like random kids on the internet that are making all this money. It's not like Wall Street brokers, you know, it's it's like random kids that have access to a computer and a cell phone. Well, theoretically on theoretically on on on the blockchain, they have value, but when it comes to real world application and liquidity of it and purchasing power of it, it's not the same. Yes, yeah, like it's paper profits right now. Yes, like this kid in India because of regulations over there, he's only allowed to take out $2,000 a month from his bank account. But he's he's worth like 10 million on paper right now. Let's say the bubble pops tomorrow, then it goes down to whatever. But I mean, like, let's say, let's say the bubble pops, I really don't see it's going to be like a pop to zero. I think it's going to be a pop to like maybe like 80% loss, which is insane. Like it's very, very high. Let's let's reverse what are some telltale signs of a bubble approaching? For me, what I would I like to use as my bubble sort of indicator is the sentiment. So I like to I like to watch and I'm kind of in an echo chamber because I'm so heavily involved in the space. So most of my news and most of my information coming at me is cryptocurrency related. So I see people tweeting about like what ICOs they want to buy when they're totally have nothing to do with investing. They have they've no previous experience with managing money. They're they're just kind of like seeing all this hype and all this news and they're and they're like now buying ICOs. And when I see people tweeting about like, you know, Ethereum is is Ethereum is the new Bitcoin, Bitcoin is dumb. What a dumb name. And then and then the next day they post and they can't even spell Ethereum, right? I had some guy message me is like, yo, do you know where I can get some Ethereum? I'm like, yeah, sure. Let me know as well. Yeah. So these guys are tweeting about, oh, I just 2xed my money on Ethereum and, you know, Bitcoin and they're spelling it like two words like Bitcoin. And they're like, it's so dumb. You know, the CEO of Bitcoin can't even make up his mind about which algorithm to use. Like people just don't know anything about the space. But they're making all this money like that to me sort of like screams bubble. But there's a couple of indicators like that I'm confused about, which, you know, like if you look at Google trends, the searches for Bitcoin have actually like overtaken the searches for Justin Bieber. Yeah, I saw that. Yeah. So like that is kind of like an indicator. But I reconcile that on the other side by thinking that, you know, Justin Bieber is not that popular anymore. So it's okay. No, but I see it like, you know, the Google search volume overtaking Bitcoin or Justin Bieber for Bitcoin, you know, you start to see like Bitcoin be quoted beside gold and oil and the S&P 500 and, you know, in like major newspapers and like CNBC recommending buy Bitcoin for a hedge against volatility. And all of these sort of mainstream news sources are starting to quote Bitcoin, like there's a Bitcoin ticker on the on the on the Bloomberg terminals now. And so to me, like when I see the public so interested in Bitcoin, I'm coming from a time when 2011, like, you know, it's very early and you got to be like super nerd to be even like mining Bitcoin or whatever. So when you start hearing your grandmother talk about Bitcoin back then, it's like, okay, I'm in the space. So obviously, people are going to talk to me about Bitcoin and I'm going to hear more about Bitcoin because people are sharing it with me because I'm in the space. So I don't really know if I'm just kind of being oversensitive to all this news that's coming at me about Bitcoin and Ethereum because I'm in the space and everybody knows to like throw that at me. So I try to like take that with a grain of salt. But that is a huge indicator. Like when you start seeing people at the grocery store talking about what I see, oh, they're going to buy to the clerk. That's kind of like bubble territory, right? What was that story? It was like the in the stock boom or something. It was like the cab drivers were giving people tips on what to get into. Like that's kind of what I'm trying to keep tuned into. Like if random people that like are starting to make all this money, yeah, it's probably it's probably something to pay attention to. Well, my take on most of these ICOs is sustainability and actual revenue because I haven't seen any single one that I'm quite satisfied that is okay, that's an actual legitimate business model that can be accomplished today. That actually makes sense. On top of that, like if you just look at, for example, hashing rates and you look at scalability, even if two, three of these successful dApps are actually successful in scaling their startup, right? Ethereum or EVM was shut down. It'd be bogged down completely. Well, today the bank or ICO is happening and the whole entire Ethereum blockchain is like logged blocked up and locked. And this is the second time because we had which is the one that basic attention token last week or two weeks ago. Yeah, they shut down EVM as well. Yeah, so I'm not 100% as knowledgeable on the Ethereum sort of like scalability conversation as I probably should be. But what I'm seeing is like 90% of all the traffic on Ethereum is to do with buying ICOs. And there's like maybe 1% of the traffic on Ethereum is actual like users using it for the decentralized apps that are supposed to be like what Ethereum is used for. So the Ethereum token is supposed to be fuel for dApps and smart contracts, but it's overwhelmingly just being used as like an ICO gateway, right? And the blockchain can't even keep up with the demand for that. So I don't see how Ethereum scales to the point where it's going to be able to handle all of these dApps that are being raised, all this money is being raised on Ethereum, and they're supposed to be running their traffic through Ethereum like world supercomputers and decentralized prediction markets. And like this is going to be a lot of transactions. And once they start coming online, I don't know how the Ethereum blockchain is even going to deal with that because it can't even deal with the demand for people trying to buy the ICO. So if it's 180 gigabytes right now, the blockchain, it's bigger than the Bitcoin blockchain. It's, I don't see how it scales, but I mean, you're so much more connected to that space than me. So why don't you tell me if you see how it scales? Scalability is not going to happen until they figure out their proof of stake with sharding and mesh network, but that's just theoretical on paper. How would that even work? Like sharding for Ethereum? Like how's that going to? They literally want to break apart a block and distribute it. So is that a way to like scale down transaction volume or something? I thought sharding was like a way to anonymize data for a brief, no, that too. But the whole idea is they want to break apart a block and distribute it up among all the nodes of the miners who are staking their ether into a mesh network too. So the main thing, the major things in POS and Casper is sharding and mesh. But so they shared the blocks so that it's not as much everybody doesn't have to like, yeah. And then there's another thing they want to do. They want to add snarks. So what Zcash is doing on top of that. Oh my God. Okay. Yeah. So there's a lot of things in the pipeline on paper is like hallelujah. If this is accomplished, like, yeah, it's amazing. But, you know, like anything in life, there's obviously going to be roadblocks, there's going to be bugs, there's going to be hurdles, there's going to be failures. So there's going to be a lot of issues before this is actually successful. I like how Andres Antonopoulos stage is like, I love that Ethereum's here so they can be testing everything for us for other people to learn from, which is great because and this is one of my kind of beefs towards like Bitcoin Maximus and like you guys are kind of like oxymoronic when the or yeah oxymoronic in the fact that technology should be pushed. Technology should fail. Technology should be pushed as much as it can and crash as much as it can. So other people can learn from it. And then we can build on top of it. So, you know, my issue right now with Ethereum is yeah, scalability. It's not there yet. They're working on it. When are they going to roll out with it? Honestly, I don't know. I have no idea. As well as also let's talk about price. So, you know, Ethereum, what's it out like almost like 400 bucks right now, American, let's say the price does go to 50% of that to 200 overnight. How many of these ICOs do you think are going to start liquidating to Fiat? Oh man, that's that's one of the other things that I'm trying to like gauge for like looking into the future on on my portfolio because even though I'm not as heavy into Ethereum as a lot of other people are. Oh, NXT is taken off. All right. I do have exposure to it and I have exposure to a lot of Ethereum tokens. So I'm getting a sort of like growth in my portfolio even though like I was a Bitcoin maximalist for a long time, even though I didn't, you know, I only trade Bitcoin, I'd buy altcoins like crazy because I want more Bitcoin. I'm starting to hear if people started to measure their portfolio in Ethereum rather than Bitcoin. And to that I used to think like, well, why would you do that? Are you going to measure your like bank account and Apple shares? Like Bitcoin is money, Ethereum is smart contract fuel. Sure. But it looks like Ethereum is money too now and I don't know if that's what they meant or what they mean it to be. But Ethereum is starting to be used more as well, it has been and I just kind of didn't look at it like that as money. And it's like you said, like all these ICOs that are upcoming, it's not going to stop demand for Ethereum. And the question is whether or not these these projects are going to liquidate to cash, right? Well, it's kind of a bit of a Ponzi right now the way I look at it because you know, companies that raise their money in Ethereum kind of have a vested interest to keep the Ethereum and to get more companies to raise in Ethereum. So you get all these developers now that are like convincing the other developers to like raise it on Ethereum rather than waves or Ethereum classic or UBIC or like NXT or ART or or any of these other blockchains that can facilitate the same sort of like service that Ethereum is giving it because it helps them and it helps their Ethereum price. So there's a lot of evangelizing from developers that are running these ICOs to get other developers to run their ICOs on Ethereum. And I mean, that just contributes to the bubble and that sort of is unethical in a way to me because I feel like it's not, it wasn't built to be like an ICO machine, but that's kind of what it is. And all these projects that are raising 30, 40, 50 million dollars in Ethereum, not a lot of them, like you said, are going to liquidate. So there are some that do liquidate straight to cash, like what was the one that was like last year, they liquidated like 10 million dollars of Ethereum straight to USD and they missed out on like a hundred million dollar gain. It was a, I don't know, Melonport or one of those. Yeah, Melonport, I think it was. Okay. And then for a long time, like the sort of like first pilgrims that were like running ICOs on the Ethereum blockchain were. Think about it from a psychological aspect. Do these startups really fucking need 20 million dollars for a white paper that has no MVP, no working model? Are they nuts? See, you know what I look at it and I don't know if they're doing it like this, but the way I look at it is that if you raise 20 million dollars for your ICO, you're going to spend a bit of money on development, marketing, whatever, like the normal business expenses, but there's a new element here of what you need money for, which you didn't have this and you don't have this with regular startups is market making. Like you got a liquid token that represents the value of your company pretty much like in the mindset of the people who bought it and invested at least. If not, you know, it's not actually like a securitized token, but it might as well be if that's what everybody thinks, then you've got to keep the value up. Otherwise, you're going to be looked at as a failure. So like if you raise 20 million, a lot of these companies are starting to like the ICOs are starting to say take $5 million of that and use it for market making to sort of keep the price up or try to raise it up, which is totally like they're speculating and artificially it's artificial. Yeah, it's artificial. So like you got the biggest driver of the demand of Ethereum has been the ICOs sucking out the supply and the ICO holders like the companies that are raising the money holding the Ethereum and not or transacting OTC so that it's not going on the blockchain. It's like they're selling it over the counter to someone to liquidate to like exchanges or mine. I mean like over the counter brokerages and stuff like dark pools and whatever. So then you know, they're not going to dump 500,000 Ethereum at the market because that'll probably not get absorbed and it'll hurt the price. So they'll do it OTC. So whether or not these ICOs are liquidating a lot of their Ethereum or not, we don't see it because it's done over the counter. It doesn't hit the market, right? So you got huge demand from the community of the cryptocurrency investors due to the strong fomonomic analysis here. Yeah, you need to get the next 10x, right? So everybody's just dumping their coins into the ICOs to get at least the 2x because it's just bubble time. It's on, right? So you got that strong demand. You got these major ICOs that are happening like Bankor today and what was the bat a week ago and you got all these big ones coming up like Filecoin and EOS and what's that other big one there? Oh, Tezos. Tezos, yeah. That's just not going to stop. There's about 30 ICOs coming this year, at least like big ones. So you got guys like Tim Draper and all these billionaires investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum like coming out as big. You have 120 partnerships with Ethereum Alliance, all big corporations. Yeah. So I mean, the demand is there for the token, for sure. And I think the strongest demand on the upward price of Ethereum is these big ICOs. People need to buy Ethereum to get into these big ICOs. So it's probably going to go to a thousand just because that's a magnetic number now. Like that's a mental magnet. Like you're looking at the price like, oh, it's high, it's high, it's high, but it's not a thousand. So you got to get up to a thousand. So the biggest fundamental reason why I see it go into a thousand is because of the EOS ICO. So EOS for those of those who don't know, it's like a new ICO that's coming out. They're trying to be like the number one ICO. They're trying to raise a billion dollars, right? So you say that, but that would sound ridiculous, but not in a bubble. So I think they will raise a million dollars. A billion dollars. A billion dollars. Well, they already have a lot of pre-VC money as well. I think it's going to happen. No, I know they do. Like they were at Consensus and I was there and I was like amazed by the amount of money they were just blowing on like billboards on Times Square and like sponsoring these parties with their logo like in diamonds and stuff. It's like, this is insane. It's bubble time, baby. So it's like, they're going to spend the money because they know it's going to make them more money. But here's the thing. Like EOS is going to probably raise a billion dollars. EOS is kind of trying to like eat Ethereum's lunch though. So it's a strange sort of phenomenon we have here. Ethereum raised Bitcoin to launch, right? So Bitcoin was high, Bitcoin was king. I mean still is king, but like at the time especially Ethereum raised Bitcoins and now look at Ethereum, it's like chomping away at Bitcoin's dominance, right? EOS wants to do that to Ethereum. So EOS is like the better version of Ethereum. That's what they're pitching themselves as. And they have a plan to raise a billion dollars in Ethereum basically, and then they're going to launch and probably take a huge supply away from the Ethereum market cap and developers and DApps and stuff. So they're going to run it for a year. So that's our target, man. Like this bubble could last for a year because EOS is going to run a billion dollar ICO for a year. So this, you know, the money could keep flowing from VCs and like billionaires and stuff getting into the space. And we could still keep see these massive gains and these insane like a thousand percent daily runs in these tokens for a year. Like we could get to a trillion market cap by next year. It could totally happen in a bubble like this. So it's like at any moment, one hack or one ICO that raised $40 million that loses their smart contract or something like they get hacked or they're, you know, they run with the money or there's a bug in the Ethereum that's found or like which the attack surface is huge on it right now. 13 million dollars locked up today. That's probably worth 20 million dollars. Like, yeah. So you see, like, I think that the house of cards is sort of like keeping it's stacking, right? We're stacking it up. But man, like one sort of like negative event that happens with either Ethereum or one of the big ICOs, I think that could possibly be what pops the bubble. But at the same time, we've got the counter force of EOS and who knows what money's behind them. Dan Larimer is like the creator of BetShares and Steamit. And they were both a billion dollar valuations before billion dollar meant nothing because now we're seeing like shit coins like Bitcoin, BCN hit a billion dollar valuation two weeks ago or three weeks ago. They can get pumped to a billion dollars. But back then that was like, you know, reserved for the cryptocurrency elites. You had like maybe Ethereum and Litecoin or something. I think the only ones at that point that had hit a billion dollars, maybe Ripple when it launched or something. But so anyway, Dan Larimer has, you know, he's kind of getting a bit of a, he had a bad rep because people were calling both BetShares and Steamit a scam. So it was like, had a bit of a bad rep. But now he's got a lot of like partners on this new EOS project that give him a lot of credibility. Plus they just pumped BetShares. BetShares is a billion dollar market cap now. So now it's like, oh, look, his reputation is fine. Look, it's a billion dollar market cap. So the fact that they can take BetShares from death to a billion dollar market cap because BetShares was totally dead for the last year and a half. When he left BetShares, it totally went like this, like down negative and then Steamit, he just left Steamit and because the price was going down, down, down. It went from a billion dollars down to like $25 million market cap or whatever low shit it was. But both of those have now pumped like crazy. So that makes me think like there's big money back in Dan and EOS and they want him to look like he's some genius guru of blockchain guru. So they've, you know, I don't know if this is what really happened. But look, he announces EOS, they start to advertise to get on Times Square and getting billboards and everything. A week later, BetShares, which he's not even really a part of anymore, pumps to a billion market cap. To me, that's foreshadowing what they're going to do with EOS. So I do think that EOS is going to be able to raise a billion dollars, but I don't think they're going to get billion dollars of cash. They're going to get a billion dollars in Ethereum. And how are they going to do that? All of these Ethereum like whales are going to put their money into EOS and they're going to cause the price to drive up to a thousand dollars. So it's like ethereal money. It's not real money. It's like vapor money because there is no actual, there's no, there's not a billion dollars in value there. There's just a billion dollars in paper value there. So they're going to run the price up to a thousand dollars and all these whales are going to put in massive amounts of Ethereum and it's going to hit a billion dollars raised. It's going to be the biggest ICO ever at that point. I don't know. So that's my vision for the next year. I see that happening, but I don't know what happens after that. What's your take on a whole Bitcoin thing then happening in August? Oh man, I'm going back to my turtle sort of strategy that I think I was in in 2014 to 2016. I'm sort of thinking I'm heavily divested into altcoins right now. I'm in 110 different altcoin positions and I'm thinking over the next two, three weeks, depending on how sentiment goes for the for the soft fork, I'm thinking I may want to just convert a lot of it back into Bitcoin and just lock it up and like don't look at it for a year because I don't know what's going to happen man with this soft fork. It seems like there's there's a ton of sentiment online that a lot of the developers and a lot of the like, you know, crypto elite are pushing the user activated soft fork. But when you look at the node count, only about I think 10% of the nodes are signaling for the user activated software. Yes. Like 80% of the nodes are signaling for Segwit. Yes. But only like 10, I don't know what the actual number is for the miners. There's like a, it's not a majority of miners signaling for Segwit. So we've got three camps here that are trying to like push their agenda before it was only two camps, before it was like the Bitcoin unlimited guys and the Segwit team. Now it's like Bitcoin unlimited Segwit plus this like Barry Silver contingency of the Segwit two megabyte. So it's like there's three separate groups now and the Bitcoin core block developers are for the most part against bigger blocks and they're for just a straight Segwit, but they're accepting like they're okay with a Segwit user activated software. Let's pull up, but they have the Google Doc sheet. Where was it? Bitcoin? Maybe we can pull it up. Bitcoin, Wiki, Segwit, I don't know. Let me Google it. I just looked at it the other day. It was like majority of the developers were for Segwit, but they were acceptable on software. So BIP 141, everybody prefers. Like literally the whole core team, like almost every and some people not from the core team all prefer BIP 141 than BIP 148. That's the user activated software. Exactly. It's acceptable. So it's a mix of acceptable and wanting with a mixture and a bunch of no's. And then you got BIP 149, which is acceptable. And then you got Segwit two megabytes and then co-op, which is the Berry agreement, which almost everyone's saying no. Yeah. So you got all the Bitcoin core developers saying no to Berry's consensus on, you know, Bitcoin consensus, sorry, when it was released around the time of consensus in New York, said that you spoke with a lot of major companies and there was the agreement that they're going to do Segwit two megabyte. But I spoke with a couple of core developers at consensus and they're telling me that the code's not ready for that. And when I spoke to Rootstock, the guys from Rootstock, they said that they were going to sort of take the lead on the coding for implementing the Segwit two megabyte hard fork. So they said that they were going to handle that, but then I spoke with some core developers and they were telling me that they don't think Rootstock can handle that and there is no code available to review right now. So that's when they started pushing the user activated soft fork August 1st deadline was basically after the very silver sort of announcement. I mean, user activated soft fork was kind of like a rumbling before then, but now it's like flag day is August 1st. Let's do it. But still, only 10% of the nodes are signaling for that because I think it causes a lot of fear. Like for me, I'm supportive of Bitcoin. I see Roger Ver sort of like passionate side about why he wants to see on chain transaction scale. He's very like, a voluntarious sort of like libertarian anti like censorship, which Bitcoin was created for to be able to send money to anybody without anyone getting in the way without any sort of privacy conflicts or whatever. So when you have a company like Blockstream who sponsors a lot of the core developers, maybe like they think there's ties to banks and stuff there. And that's why they want to push lightning network so they can have centralized off chain transactions and Roger Ver and like guys like Calvin Ayer that from Bodog and Jihan Wu and all those guys that are on the bigger block side don't want to see off chain transactions because they think that it'll lead to censorship and like surveillance. But the Blockstream guys and the guys from the Lightning Network, I talked to them at Consensus as well and I asked them like, are these concerns like valid? Like if you have a, because the way that the Lightning Networks work is that you have like the Bitcoin chain, right? And then you have side sort of channels where Bitcoin goes off the main chain and then you have side channels between two parties that can run chains or more than two parties. Yeah, so root stock is sort of the same, but for Ethereum and other blockchains, right? It like allows you to like, no, root stock is going to be building the, with root stock, you can build dApps on Bitcoin. Right. But isn't there a way that you like doesn't root stock allow for Ethereum and Bitcoin transactions to talk to each other? Yes, but the main thing what's really good about root stock is it's simpler programming language and they don't have their own token. So miners will be getting both Bitcoin on mining on root stock and mining on Bitcoin. Right. Which is really cool and the beginning paid out in Bitcoin. I liked the whole like mixture of Bitcoin and Ethereum and other blockchain stuff. I thought that would be cool because it would be a way to sort of unify the community so it won't be like Bitcoiners against Ethereum people anymore. It would be like, let's work together on this guys and overthrow the king, you know? Yeah. But back to the big blocks sort of debate thing is that if you have these lightning channels open, then they apparently they can still remain anonymous and like there's no centralized entity that's going to be able to see those transactions. It's just a technology just like Bitcoin is that allows anyone to open a channel using the lightning network technology. And it's not actually going to be like a centralized off chain thing. Like it's not that it's not like blockstream is going to be the like one that runs the lightning network. It's just going to be another another way to transact with Bitcoin like without doing it directly on the blockchain. So I don't know like all of the arguments I heard from guys like Ver and and and Geon and all those guys was like, oh, they're centralizing Bitcoin, their their force censorship and all this stuff, which that's been debunked by the guys that are building the lightning network that say that's how it works. And it can work exactly the same as, you know, anonymous transactions with Bitcoin, it can be like whoever's running the lightning network, that channel that you're transacting on, like they can it's anonymous too. So, so what's your best guess, man? What do you think is going to happen between because the earliest first signaling right now is a June 14 or June 15 or sorry, July, my bad. I believe it's July and then August, I think like based on the technicals, it looks like Bitcoin is going to run up to about $4,000, $3,800 to $4,000 in the next month. And it's like, as long as we stay above, I think it's 20, 2500 now, I think as long as we stay above 2,500, it looks like we're going to run up to 3,800, which is sort of like the next stop based on Fibonacci and Elliott waves, which is what a lot of people started, you know, whether or not technical analysis is actually a predictor of price. It's like, so many people use those indicators that it's sort of like, you know, becomes reality, you know, because so many people are watching those levels. It's just like, I don't know, I used to think it was voodoo, but no, what's that? What's that quantum physics theorem, a Schrodinger's cat? Oh yeah. Schrodinger. Yeah, Schrodinger, you got to open up the box and depending on how you see the view of the cat, that's the reality. Yeah, it's like, it becomes reality. Yeah, it becomes reality because everybody's looking at the same numbers and they all like, want it to go to those levels and want it to hold those support levels. But anyway, I'd see like Bitcoin, I'd see in the next by August 1st, like, Oh, there's there's so many different scenarios that I don't know how to reconcile them. And I'm not sure like, it could go to 3,800. And then by the time the user activated soft fork happens, like that could cause a hard fork. People are saying that the Bitcoin unlimited team is going to try to hard fork Bitcoin before then or at that time. And I don't know the economic incentives aren't really there for anybody to do that because they're all invested in Bitcoin. So why would they, why would they do that? But it's a control thing and it's like, it could be actually like a global sort of power struggle thing right now because China, people are saying that China is trying to buy up Bitcoin. And now I just saw an article that Putin and Russia is now buying Bitcoin. Well, he doesn't need to buy Bitcoin. He just makes a Putin coin and he's good to go. Yeah, I know. But if he has Putin coin plus Bitcoin, that's right. That's right. And then someone else, I think, I forget who it was, someone I follow on Twitter is a good analyst. They were saying that they see evidence that Japan is buying Bitcoin as well, like the governments, right? The countries are buying Bitcoin. So if you see that, there's going to be a lot of countering, counterbalancing interests in the price or in the control. It kind of goes to that same thing about gold, like when countries are buying a controlled gold. I still think Bitcoin is severely undervalued. I think Bitcoin is, if countries are buying it, if countries are buying Bitcoin, I mean, there's no chance we won't see a $100,000 Bitcoin unless the chain gets split and attacked. And even then, though, I think that there's so many strong hands in Bitcoin, as long as their incentives are pure or whatever. Ethereum is a perfect example of that, man. People are complaining about the Dow, what happened with the Dow, but the market, and it doesn't matter what you want, doesn't matter what I want, what matters is what the market wants and the market speaks and look at the market today. Yeah, that's true. All right. Yeah, I wonder though that my big thought is like, when, okay, so with Bitcoin, what's going to happen with Bitcoin by August? I don't know. It's kind of crazy. I got a couple more weeks to sort of sort that out for myself and figure out what everybody else is doing. But I'm thinking I'm going to take a portion of my Bitcoin, store it off exchange, off my hot wallet and just sort of put it away for the $100,000 Bitcoin that's probably going to happen in the next three to five years. By trading capital, I'm going to probably diversify into all of other alts. So to me, I think 3% of my portfolio right now is in Ethereum, but probably another 3% or 4% is in Ethereum tokens. I don't want to be too exposed to Ethereum because I went in big in Ethereum. I'm sort of like, I held out because I missed the ICO by like three weeks. And so I watched it go from nothing basically up to like $20 right before the Dow hack happened. At 20 bucks, I was like, okay, I missed the boat on this. I'm not going to be dumb anymore. I'm going to buy Ethereum. So I put about 10% of my portfolio in Ethereum. The next day, the Dow happened. So I sold it all at 10 bucks. So I lost like a pretty good chunk. So to me, like I got that like mental sort of like snake bite from Ethereum. So that's why I'm not super bullish on Ethereum because I saw the Dow happen. It affected me like big time. And I figured, well, this is probably going to happen again. Like there's the attack factor so big on Ethereum. But that caused me to miss like one of the biggest bull runs in cryptocurrency. I caught quite a few others and I'm up quite a bit percentage wise, even without having much exposure to Ethereum. I mean, I just started recently buying it around 250. So I missed that big run up. It's probably going to 1000. I think something's going to happen that's going to cause it either EOS is going to start eating Ethereum's lunch. There's going to be a bug or there's going to be another attack or there's going to be just a natural market correction because it's a bubble. So it's going to be just, it's a market cycle. It's based on emotions and like greed is the one that's driving it right now. And soon fear is going to be the one that's driving it because as soon as you get too many participants that hold a lot of the supply, like all of these ice, like you scold back to when you said like all these startups raising like $50 million. Like what the hell do they need that much money for? Like these guys are, these guys are like for a lot of it, they're white papers, just like a marketing pitch. There's not much to a lot of these ICOs. They couldn't build a business of their life dependent on it, man. I spoke into a bunch of these ICO founders. It fuddles me like you guys are going to run a business, but we'll fucking good luck with that. Yeah, they're like, I was talking to Michael Turpin about it recently. He gets pitched ICOs all the time. People want him to write Michael Turpin's from the Bit Angels and he also has a PR that does most of the PR for a lot of the big ICOs, gets them in Reuters and stuff like that. And he turns down so many people that come to him with like, I want to do an ICO for my dog walking business. He's from the tech bubble world. So like he knows a lot of the tech bubble guys and they're all getting into cryptocurrency. They're all trying to ICO their business and their business is like nothing to do with technology or cryptocurrency. So he tells them all like, no, go on. This is not for you. The other day, I just saw something primal token ICO where they've tokenized their co-working fucking place. Yeah. Yeah, primal. Like a lot of these tokens, like their basic model is that they're kind of going to just like use the profits that they make to buy back the tokens and that's going to make the token go up in value, which is a silly model, but like it works. You know, it's one thing that I really like two things I like. So yes, a couple of days ago, we're actually two days ago, he released a statement about ICOs in the model for distribution of tokens, et cetera, and named, named the dApps. Also another issue I see in the space in Vitalik, he mentioned this on Twitter, I think like a week or two weeks ago is like, we literally are running out of talent. We don't have intellectual developers, we don't have researchers, we don't have academics, money is outpacing the actual talent in the space. And it's like we get, because our business is we train dApps. Hold on one sec. Bankor multi-signature contract holds $150 million in Ethereum tokens right now, just totally insane, just blows away anything previous. ENS, ENS has $500 million, I think. So Bankor just raised $150 million and EOS, like Bankor is like not worth that much money, you know what, actually as a company, Bankor is worth that much money. As a technology, I don't think so. But as a company, that's going back to your point about companies, and if they can run businesses, Bankor is one of the ones that actually could run a business that could be a unicorn. They've got the technology team in place, but it's a web product, it's like for users. So they're going to try to get a billion users, like that's something that we need. Good luck with that man. Anyway, it's saying $150 million, that's crazy. So EOS is definitely going to do a billion. Sorry to interrupt it. Breaking news alert. Breaking news. You were saying, the Taliq was saying about he released a paper. Well, two things. He released a paper for just, I want to say attacking, but talking about the ICO distribution, the models for tokenizations. And also he was mentioning on Twitter the fact that we have very limited talent in the space. Very limited developers, very limited researchers, very limited academics, which is true. Like, for example, Blockheeks, our job is to train devs, whether it's Ethereum dev, Bitcoin dev, etc. And we get emails all the day from companies, from banks, looking to hire people. They don't exist. They don't. And so for us to fill the need, all these ICOs, I'm always wondering, where the fuck is their team? Where are they getting all this talent from? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I guess it's, I think I read from Needham did a, or it wasn't Needham, it was Cambridge did a study recently about the space and the different metrics in the space. And this was about three months ago. And I think there was only about 2000 jobs in the blockchain space right now. That's nothing. So we've got a lot of room to grow, which could support the bubble, which could even make it not a bubble. So Blockheeks is supporting the bubble by training people. You're training the bubble to grow bigger, man. You're playing in the bubble. No, we have a test at the end when you graduate as a Solidity Developer. It's a bubble test. How much are you going to raise in your ICO? Is that what your test is? Are you going to do an ICO? Yes. Oh, you failed automatically. Yeah, there's a lot of silly ICOs happening. There's a lot of, I think that's what like, so that makes me think that kind of going back to that point about what's going to happen after 1000, I don't think there's going to be a lot of strong hands. Like these guys that are kind of raising all this money, they're purely doing it for money. They're doing it for only money. And when the price starts to teeter and falter and then like that's, that's when the fear takes over. Right now it's greed that's driving this price. But when the fear starts, when the bull market comes to an end and there's not enough buyers to soak up all this supply that's going to be there, when people are starting to sell their Ethereum to pay their bills and to do their marketing and whatever, and it's not going to get soaked up. Or if a hack happens or whatever, whether it's like a sort of act of God that sort of like happens that hacks or whatever, or if it's just the natural market dynamics of supply, demand, greed, fear. When fear starts to take over, I don't think a lot of these guys that are controlling the wallets for these ICOs are going to be like, oh, I'm going to hold all the way down to $50. I think they're going to be like dumping on the way down. That's, you know, that was their cash cow. So it's probably going to go to Bitcoin. It's probably going to go to maybe Litecoin or Ethereum Classic or UBIC or one of these other ones like Monero. Yeah, but I don't know. That's just a thought, but it could hold the value because you've got a lot of like enterprises and VCs and strong hands holding the Ethereum as well. But then you've got like EOS, which is trying to defeat Ethereum. So you're going to have like EOS, I see as basically like the Jihan Wu, Roger Ver, Bitcoin Unlimited version of the debate for smart contracts. You know, it's like they think, and Eternity is another one. They raised like $60 million in Ethereum, and they just finished their second crowd sale and they want to be Ethereum 3, like Bitcoin 3.0 or Ethereum 2.0. So you got a lot of these smart contract platform competitors. Then you got Ethereum Classic, which is supported by IOHK and Charles Hoskinson and Barry Silbert. And a lot of people credit Barry Silbert for taking Bitcoin from 500 bucks to like $1,500 because of the Bitcoin Investment Trust. And now you got the Bitcoin Investment Trust trading, the equivalent value of $4,800 US right now because people can get it for their 401Ks or whatever by buying GBTC. He supports Ethereum Classic for his Ethereum Trust. So people can buy the Ethereum Trust for their retirement funds and whatever. And so Barry Silbert has a lot of sway and power and influence. He's put his weight behind Ethereum Classic. So you're starting to see like IOHK and Charles Hoskinson, like recruiting developers to develop on Ethereum Classic. And everything, ERC20 tokens and everything, everything works on Ethereum Classic that works on Ethereum. And if they switch over to POS, then all the proof of work miners are going to switch over to probably Ethereum Classic because they're going to stay proof of work. So you do have these like Ethereum is like the monster right now in that space, but EOS, Ethereum Classic, you got a lot of other, a lot of other motives there to sort of like eat Ethereum's lunch. And if you're an investor and you're like in the smart contract space, I mean, to me, goodbye right now, Ethereum Classic, like UBIC. So UBQ is, it's a fork of Ethereum that is like a non-mutable, it's an immutable fork. And they did like a fair distribution. There wasn't an ICO. There wasn't, there's no pre-mine. There's nothing like that. It was a fair sort of distribution. And they're targeting enterprises that are nervous about having their transactions one day rolled back or something. So yeah, they're super small market cap compared to Ethereum. I think they, when I started buying it, it was like 10 million market cap. Now they're at 100 million market cap. And I mean, it's one of the next sort of, if you like Ethereum, you're going to go down. Like they're proof, they're hash powered on that network hit an all-time high recently. So I mean, it's got some fundamentals behind it. And they're a Canadian team too. So you got to like that. That's good. So anyway, I think when Ethereum, you know, it's a, to me, it's a waterfall, right? So it's like, it went from fiat and gold to Bitcoin. And now it's going from Bitcoin to Ethereum. And then it's going to go to Ethereum, to Ethereum Classic and UBIC and everything. And eventually the bottom is the shitcoins. It's like, solar coin and all the pay coin and whatever, all these crappy little like nothing coins that are $500,000 market cap as an investor, like put a little bit of money in those and you're probably going to make money until the bubble pops because they're going, they go up like 20X, 30X like insane sort of money to be had in this sort of like scooping the bucket from wherever the waters fall and from this giant waterfall we've got here. People are making so much money with Bitcoin and Ethereum and everything that they're going to, they're going to divest into these other things. Are you going to make money until the bubble burst? Sounds like trickle down economics. Oh, trickle down. How's the trickle down economics theory work? Money goes on the top, it goes to the bottom. Sounds like that's what's happening. I initially thought, man, that our bubble was going to pop like a month ago. I thought two months ago, I thought it was going to happen. So this has been surprising to me and I'm constantly in a state of like, I know it's coming, but I'm also trying to expose myself to history and books on bubbles and stuff like that so that I can play it right. So to summarize, it's coming. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when and for everybody out there, they need to diversify, play it safe, downplay your risk, whatever that means for you and that's that pretty much. I'd say like leave it off with recommendation of a book. I'm currently going through reminiscences of a stock operator, which is a book about this guy, James Levingston. He's like, it starts off with him as like a kid trading in bucket shops, like a 15 year old kid with like $100 of his, I think he borrowed from his dad or something like that. Yeah. And his rise in the, you know, boom, the stock market boom of the early 1900s. And it's an amazing book because it chronicles the bubble that happened back then, which has a lot of comparisons to today because you're getting kids making millions of dollars with cryptocurrency. And back then kids were making tons of money with stocks because it was unregulated and anybody had access to it. All you had to do was walk into the bucket shop and buy your stocks and, you know, wait for the next ticker to come through on the ticker tape or whatever next price. And here tips, like people are tipsters, giving tips to everybody. And I get constantly, I'm getting Facebook messages like, oh, what I, what ICO should I buy and stuff. So I mean, I draw a lot of parallels between the bubble that happened then, the bubble that happened in like the 20s. The futures markets was another one, another great book is trend following that chronicles, or the complete turtle trader, sorry, that chronicles the 1980s futures bubble. So just, I'd say, read a couple of books on the previous bubbles, if you're kind of wondering like how you should play this market, because the biggest lesson I'm learning from it all is, you know, we know what's coming, but we don't know when and you got to figure out how much risk you willing to take for how much reward because the bubble can go for a year, a bubble can go for two years. Like, we think this is crazy right now because we've been in since like the prices were way lower, but the people are coming in right now thinking, oh, I can get a bargain on Litecoin because it's going to go to Bitcoin's value. Like that's how people are thinking. So a lot of people that are coming into the space right now don't know much about cryptocurrency. They don't know much about the fundamentals or the technology. All they're looking at, some of these people are looking at tokens that have supply in the billions that they're worth 0.01 cents, and they're like, oh, this is a bargain. This is going to go to the Ethereum to $300. So they're like buying all these crappy coins because they don't understand the supply and demand, but that's where there's a lot of dumb money. Why do they lose their money? There's a lot of dumb money coming in that can fuel the bubble for a long time. I never understand that. Just people give their money and they don't know what they're giving their money to. It hurts my mind. Yeah, but that's what's happening now. That's what we're seeing. And I mean, you parallel that to just in general the whole entire financial market, like the stock market, the S&P 500, like the US stock market has been on a non-stop bull run for like 100 years. So people are always waiting for the crash. And really, when you look at it on a full time scale, there was no crash. Really, there was just corrections. 2008 was just a correction when you look at it in terms of like 1900 to now. It's been on a non-stop bull run. So yeah. Awesome, Brad. Be prepared. It's gonna crash. Buy gold. Gold bugs. Buy stocks. Get out of Bitcoin. It's too risky. If people want to get a hold of you for whatever reason, whether that's trading or just advice in general, I know you're very busy, but what's the best way for people to get a hold of you? You can get me at atamirrosic on Twitter. That's right, guys. Check out Brad at atamirrosic on Twitter. I'll give y'all my tips. I like to stay low. I don't want people to be having me for tips. Brad Mills can. That's my Twitter handle. That's right, guys. Follow his Twitter. I'm going to leave it. And if you seriously want to invest like serious amounts of money, Alphabet has taken like accredited investors, but I don't really handle that. So I guess just Brad Mills can on Twitter is what I got. So many people want me to manage their money. But just so people know, I'm not going to manage people's money because I don't want to be responsible if this freaking bubble pops and then you lose half your money. Like that sucks to me. Then you got the wrong people knocking at your door. I'm turning everybody away. Like so many people are trying to get me to manage money for them. I'm like, no, thank you. Good call, man. All right, Brad. Thanks so much, man. I'll make sure I put all the information below this video and I'll speak to you soon. Thanks, Amir. Yeah, cheers.