 Good afternoon. Welcome to today's Stanford Energy Seminar, pre-quart Stanford Energy Seminar. Today we have a real treat. Our speaker today is Dr. Joseph B. Powell, who is a fellow and former director of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers and served, importantly, Shell's first chief science of chemical engineering from 2006 until 2020. He's basically been in the energy technology and strategy game for a long time, 36 years, it says in his CV, and has won all the awards, not just some of the awards, has been recognized all over, has run National Academy advisory councils, DOE advisory councils, and now he just told us a sustainability, a business sustainability council most recently, maybe he'll say something about that. So in short, he is one of the most admirers, trusted and respected true experts on energy technology and strategy. He's a veritable superstar. So I'd like to turn it over to Joe to give today's seminar, which is on hydrogen's role in achieving net zero carbon emissions for the global economy, a goal that is widely shared by almost everybody at this juncture. So Joe, take it away. It's really great to be here this afternoon evening and presenting on one of my favorite topics and something of critical importance to future energy. So the talk today is hydrogen's role in achieving net zero carbon emissions for the global economy. And again, again, my name is Joe Powell. I'm retired shelf chief scientist chemical engineering and now an industry and energy systems advisor. The agenda today is we'll talk about electrification. So it's really going to be key to a future low carbon clean energy economy. And where will hydrogen complement that and what the alternatives may be. So any cost information that I'll be sharing is derived from the open literature and data. And please don't take any observations or things I say as investment advice. So hydrogen, it's the most abundant element in the universe 75% of the mass and 90% of the atoms. And it's a source of primary energy on the sun. But on the earth, it's always combined with other elements. And so we don't have hydrogen as a primary energy source, but derive hydrogen from the sources we have on the earth as an energy vector. It forms flammable mixtures with air and as a very light molecular weight. So it's extremely buoyant. It has a good energy density more than three times on a mass basis than gasoline or diesel, but a little bit less so on a volume basis and a very low boiling point. So minus 253 degrees C, 20 degrees Kelvin. And that's quite a bit colder than liquefied natural gas. So let's talk about global energy demand. And you're looking here at energy sources since 1800s. You see traditional woody biomass, coal, oil, gas, and then moving into nuclear and renewables as these slivers of the energy system up here at the top portion of the graph. And what should scare you about this is what we're proposing going forward is to expand the energy system by about 30% to meet global demand, but then also bringing in a lot more of these renewables so that we can reduce our carbon footprints. But to date, renewables have not been storable in any reasonable manner. And so if you look at our storable energy systems, namely wood, coal, and oil, and to some degree, gas has storage in the energy systems and pipeline, then that's a real challenge. So if we're going to meet future energy with clean energy, we have to almost have two systems, one being a dispatchable set of energy, and then the other are renewables, which we're having a difficulty in storing. And so that's a tremendous transformation of technology that has to occur. And we're talking about doing this in something that's capturing the width of the words here on the right hand side of the axis. So it's an incredible rate of change in the energy systems technology to have that much energy to switch to the renewables, but then also have dispatchable power from the things that we can store, which we saw the issues with that about three weeks ago here in Texas, in terms of the difficulty in dealing with the ups and downs of scenarios. Now that was not really a black swan scenario that Texas endured. We had long snaps of cold weather in the past. People tend to forget that and not plan them into their energy systems. And so one of the really important roles that hydrogen can play is to provide clean and dispatchable storage coming off of renewable energy. Alternatives to that are to either design systems that can do without energy for periods of time, which is quite difficult to do, or retain the dispatchable power sources coming off of coal oil and gas and a traditional biomass, which also has its issues in terms of the amount of total energy producing capacity that we have to develop. So hydrogen can play a very key role in terms of the ability to store energy for systems of interruptions to our clean and renewable energy supplies. So many of you are in California today and the duck curve should be nothing new to you, but that's essentially the daily cycle in energy demand and switching from renewables to dispatchable power. And that's actually a relatively easy problem relative to the issue of dealing with longer-term energy storage and high energy density demands, such as we saw that impacted Texas about three weeks ago. So this is a front and center headline news argument today. And what I'd like to do is show you where hydrogen may play in meeting some of these demands of the energy system. So hydrogen, we've known about it for 500 years. If you look at Jules Verne in 1874, writing Mysterious Island. That was a science fiction novel where the world was planet powered by hydrogen derived from water. Water, electrolysis, was already was already known at that time. And so this was an evolution of technology. This is an open system. So if you're bringing in renewable energy, you can afford to derive it from water, whereas that is the combustion product from fossil energy. So early use in airships in the 1800s for making chemicals and such. In the early 1900s, rocket fuel in 1943, of course, the Hindenburg fire in 1937, which was a dirigible that caught fire, but much of that was really the skin membrane that was covering the dirigible and not directly related to the hydrogen. And then used to power the space program. So Project Gemini, certainly the cross synergy in deploying hydrogen using oxygen for the astronauts plus the fuel cells to provide the electrical systems, but also in some of the rocketry for some of the missions that carrying over into the Apollo moon missions. The General Motors Electrovan also there in the 1960s, 1966. And you see here in the 70s, one of the early DOE preliminary vehicles hydrogen powered vehicle, which no one would purchase. But this was certainly what it was looking like in the experimental modes in the 1970s. And finally in 2000, when Ballard came on with the first commercial fuel cell, and President George Bush declared, we're going to create a hydrogen economy. And so by right about now, those who were born on around the 2000s would be driving hydrogen powered vehicles according to this initiative. And it didn't quite happen. We made some progress, but not to the extent that was perhaps anticipated. And so you ask why. And the issue with that is two things have to happen for hydrogen to be valuable. One is you have to really care about local air quality and not have other ways of getting there. So we did clean up air and reduce emissions in the internal combustion engines. And the other thing that you really need is to care about carbon footprints and climate change in a manner where you're really willing to invest in infrastructure and doing something about it. And so that's the precipice which we're perhaps on the verge of today. And that's why hydrogen has been developing as an entity and possible vector for several hundred years and certainly in the last 20 or so. And perhaps now is positioned and ready to move forward. So this is a plot from the Shell Scenarios. You can look at that online. It describes the needs to address increasing population, the growing global energy demand that will result from that increase. But then also the need to address carbon emissions and get to net zero and likely have an overshoot, which means we have to be capturing CO2 out of the atmosphere in later years. And most companies have now moved up this notional date of 2070 into the 2050s to 2035ish range to be net zero. And we're seeing a much more initiative behind that amongst stakeholders today. So it's not just about CO2 and greenhouse gas and climate change, but it's also about air quality. So if you look at what happened during COVID, there were some clean days in terms of visibility in the Bay Area. And some of that had to do with reduced vehicles on the road, reduced knocks and socks and smog. And so that's also attractive across the globe. And one of the prime considerations from moving to hydrogen as a vector along with the electrification for clean energy. So the market forces for both of those are coming into play and never seen more intensity as what we've seen in the last year and a half or so in terms of interest in electrification and in hydrogen. Now here's another picture from the Shell scenarios, which a cartoon that describes the way different components will play into the energy system going forward. So if you look, the deep blue is electrification. The light blue is hydrogen. We've got red, which could be continuing fossil hydrocarbon fuels, or it could be solar hydrocarbon fuels made from either biofuels or via so-called synthetic solar fuels. And each of those will play into different optimal parts of the energy economy. And so the optimization of this puzzle has been one of my day jobs in recent years and certainly one of the things we really have to figure out and get correct in order to roll out the infrastructure that we need going forward. So Shell just came out with some even newer scenarios as of about two weeks ago. And so again, you can go online. It's a really good read about not just the technology, but also the sociopolitical underpinnings, which will determine what kind of energy systems that we get going into the future. And so in addition to the sky scenario, sky was designed to achieve what would it take to achieve a two degrees C or less temperature rise back a few years ago. And now we're talking about sky 1.5, which is what would it take to achieve a one and a half degrees C or less temperature rise, but also two bounding scenarios that go with that, one being waves and the other being islands. And so waves considers what happens if the world is in tune to the most robust investment in economic wealth scenario, where there is a lot of global trade, sharing of technology and optimization of international energy systems. And what you see in waves is the most wealth, the most growth and energy demand because of that and the most utilization of hydrogen. So hydrogen here is shown in the light green and you see electrification with renewables in the light blue and with non-renewable in the dark blue. Whereas if you go over to the islands, that assumes that nation-states are acting with localized self-interests without as much trade and with concerns over energy security dominating their policy and energy decisions. And what you see there is less total energy demand, which one may think is a good thing, but it also means that less wealth across the globe, there's much less use for hydrogen. And in addition, there is a significant play from electrification going forward, but again continued and more extensive use of fossil fuels in that energy mix as well. So if we look further than that, then this is the median case, the Sky 1.5 scenario, which says we have good global policy. We have an intermediate amount of hydrogen use and we electrify, we have continuing use of biofuels and some solar fuels to satisfy the rest of the energy economy. And if you look at what that means for hydrogen, so in the most optimistic scenario, you have a tremendous increase in the amount of energy that's delivered to end users by hydrogen approaching 180 exajoules a year. Again, the likely scenario with Sky 1.5 is around 70, but if we don't have the global trade and optimization across that system and have the island scenario, then you see there's almost no increase of hydrogen demand about what we're seeing today. So that really helps describe the importance of policy and optimization and I'll explain as we go forward a little bit about why that happens. So here's another recent issue. This is from Bloomberg NEF on the policy impact on hydrogen demand in the U.S. And you see it goes from a theoretical maximum to what would be a strong policy implementation to a weak policy by 2050 with more than a five to seven fold change in the demand across that space. So solar energy as a logistic and an energy challenge. So one of the issues that we need to do in the optimization across the system is consider where is the overlay of population distributions relative to direct solar insulation. And what you find is there is a mismatch between where those two occur. And so we need to look at what can we do to move renewable energy over long distances and store it as such. So looking at hydrogen as an energy vector, the top left is a plot from Shell showing the places in the world which are strong in renewable energy and where we might be moving that energy to over a relatively long distance using hydrogen as a vector. And in the bottom is a similar path from the hydrogen council which is describing not only where fossil energy may be moved but also using clean hydrogen which may be derived from natural gas reforming and carbon sequestration. So very similar maps. But what you're doing here is you're taking a energy from a very rich solar or wind region and then transmitting it to a market where there is less wind or solar intensity. And if you're going to do that you pay an energy penalty. So you have to be relying on the fact of what that higher intensity may be and then you have to compete with the option of developing that similar amount of renewable or clean energy at the market or source. And then what is your carrier for doing that? So you can make biofuels or synthetic hydrocarbons but if you combust them and don't clean up your vehicles further you have continuing atmospheric local air quality issues. Hydrogen either via combustion or put into the fuel cell is clean burning so you eliminate that issue in terms of the hydrogen vehicles. And that needs to be optimized across your energy consistent considerations. So the reason that you can do this is because of the energy density. It simply would not be feasible to take today's batteries or anything that's going to be developed in the foreseeable future charging and moving them over tankers long distances and storing them to be moving energy in this magnitude. So there's the energy transport problem which ties into the sky and waves and winds scenarios. And I would say that there was a energy there was a problem in the early labelings on the shell slot. So this is off by an order of magnitude and then the energy in the exodule. So we'll have to make that translation. Again that's hot off the press. So let's go through a case study and example. We did some systems modeling using Professor Stratos Pisticofilus's group at Texas A&M University to look at renewable wind and solar from Texas to provide a portion let's say 10 percent of the grid power in New York City and look at what would the attractiveness of that be. And looking at that overall system we found two things. One is if there is a higher resource intensity in Texas versus New York and Long Island. The other issue is the land use costs. So land use in West Texas in particular is much less. And then another factor that comes into the play is by moving this energy in the form of either liquid hydrogen or perhaps ammonia and putting it back into the grid then you're gaining some storage benefits by so doing by having that infrastructure and systems play coming into play. So that particular scenario says that could look marginally cost effective as a way of moving renewable energy and storing it over long distances. But again you have to be careful with these because these assessments are quite scenario dependent and we need to do much more of this to make good choices globally on our future energy system. Now this chart helps explain a very key aspect of what I want to talk about today and that along with the next one after it. But we have a fundamental change when we're talking about renewable energy in terms of the energy. Hydrogen is a primary source on the sun for fusion but it's not on the earth. So we're taking in the energy as photons now and we can readily convert it to electrons and that's quite different than taking our input energies as fossil fuels. And so if you look at the cost of conversion to energy carriers and namely the cost of the feedstocks that the photons and the electrons are now the cheapest which is very different from the power generation of what we had in the past. Hydrogen is the simplest thing that you can make but you can also liquefy it and you can take it into other carriers like ammonia, methanol or you can actually reform that by capturing CO2 out of the atmosphere making the methanol and hydrocarbon fuels such as gasoline or diesel via fish or trout synthesis or methanol to gasoline at a higher cost of feedstock and energy penalty but drop it into the infrastructure that we have today. So the ease of use improves the overall efficiency and use of the renewable energy goes down and the cost of the fuel goes up. So those are the tradeoffs we have to consider along this space in terms of which of these carriers do we like the best and what makes the most sense moving forward. Here's another way of looking at it so again this time we have photons on the top coming into electrons where you can get very efficient 85% or higher storage and very efficient uses into the energy services 75% or better. Looking at battery electric vehicles they have the fewest components so you're reducing the number of onboard components relative to the internal combustion engine from something like 3000 down to 1000 components. If you go then down to hydrogen you're taking a bit of a hit in terms of the overall efficiency of production and the energy services maybe up to a 50% hit as I'll show you shortly and you've got to add a little bit it's still considered to be an electric drivetrain but you are essentially adding a fuel cell to that and then getting a clean energy system and you can further go down to using ammonia or again making these synthetic hydrocarbon fuels like gasoline or diesel and then putting that into an internal combustion engine now using CO2 that's captured from the atmosphere so it is a renewable and clean relative to greenhouse gas footprints but coming at an overall services and efficiency cost. So if we look at what this translates into this one axis is a unit amount of renewable energy and if we go to electric drivetrains directly we're at maybe a 75% efficiency in terms of the energy that's delivered to the wheels in a vehicle if we go to grid-based power then that may go to around 60%. If we're making today's gasoline or diesel from fossil fuels we're at about the 30-35% efficiency in terms of the source to wheels energy deployment and that's similar to what we can get with hydrogen coming from renewable energy sources so it takes about twice as much solar wind farms and facilities to produce the amount of energy you need to make hydrogen but it's more storable and can be shipped long distances so perhaps your intensity may be twice as good in one region as another. Now if you further wanted to convert that hydrogen by direct air capture of CO2 into the so-called solar liquid fuels which would be solar gasoline or diesel then your efficiency is going down into the 10 or maybe 12 to about 18% or about half the efficiency of the hydrogen. So now this may take about four of those solar farms versus two for hydrogen relative to one that you may need for a similarly intensity on the PV solar side. So that's a very important point when you look at the overall energy systems and this is another diagram that shows the number of components that you need to feed in to make these so-called solar fuels. How much land use it may take to supply the gasoline needs in the state of California which may be more than the amount of undeveloped land for sale at maybe 1.3% of the California landmass to do that and some degree of water to go into making of those fuels in addition to the liquefied solar gasoline and diesel. So Shell likes hydrogen because it's and many others as well because it's cross-cut so much of the energy space you can make it from either natural gas or a biogas or biomethane so reforming of any type of hydrocarbon but also from any source of power electricity via water electrolysis and so it cross-cuts across many pieces of the the energy system. It does take quite a bit from production to get it compressed, transmitted, stored and dispensed and so you can't underestimate the energy costs and infrastructure costs that go into making that happen. The big play for hydrogen you see some heavy industry and light industry use but quite a bit on the transportation side and but mostly on the heavy-duty side if you look at how much of the light-duty vehicles may electrify that may be relatively low relative to battery vehicles but more in the heavy-duty side of the equation. So the DOE looks at a program called hydrogen at scale and what's that trying to do is to integrate the different uses from hydrogen across sectors from transportation to to heavy industry and also residential heat and power and by integrating the total amount produced in in demand you can get the cost down and by so doing can look at a you know six to seven maybe even a tenfold increase in the amount of hydrogen production today or not. Again depending upon that's the potential but whether or not these transport systems are developed into policy and and really identified to be as useful as they seem to be an optimal solution of that energy systems problem. So other countries around the globe are making similar roadmaps along with global organizations so here's the international partnership for hydrogen seeing also a eight percent or seven to tenfold growth. The hydrogen roadmap for Europe seeing a similar seven to eight-fold growth as a potential for where hydrogen can be and if we look as an archetype on hydrogen production in the U.S. Gulf Coast so again we're looking at integrating across the petrochemical sector there we can bring in abundant natural gas and reform it and do carbon capture and sequestration which is easy to do in Texas in the Gulf Coast or we can bring in renewables as well and then we can market that into the low low carbon fuel standards in California or as we mentioned a shipping it to New York or as liquid hydrogen or ammonia shipping it to Japan and other locations as a as a possible destination where there's policy in place and then also consider all of that industry and in the Texas area which has commitments to decarbonization so that's something that's actively being looked at. You see a lot of the hydrogen deployments that are talked about as being port rollouts and the reason for that is the amount of commerce and heavy mobility that comes into play in the port so you see the port of Long Beach and LA are two of the largest in the U.S. in terms of the drainage trucks and the transport that that's coming out of there and then all of the other components that go into those plays economic plays that come in those harbor goods and transport situations that can add to the total demand and by so doing reduce the total amount of infrastructure that needs to be put into play for high rollouts of a hydrogen economy from these locations so many places around the world are looking at those rollouts here's one for the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands which is looking at offshore wind but also bringing in natural gas and so sharing a hydrogen distribution pipeline but then also a CO2 pipeline for carbon capture and storage for storage offshore in the North Sea and so you're looking at these integrated systems plays where you can combine clean energy plays where hydrogen is one of the vectors and carbon capture and storage being the other with both renewable and blue hydrogen as part of that play blue hydrogen meaning that which is reformed from natural gas and then that can be sourced also into Germany to supply some of those their mobility needs now here's a map showing the hydrogen council and again that eight or eight so or four eight eight-fold or so growth in in hydrogen demand and also looking then at what's happening in in the UK so I was on a conference panel last week where the UK believes that electrification the grid can't be electrified to the extent to satisfy the energy density demands of of their overall energy system and they really see hydrogen as a very key component because of the ability to install pipelines for transport they have some older town gas pipelines and and so perhaps can retrofit these pipelines more readily than than some of the other places in the world can but they really see the pipelines as a major component in terms of being able to roll out clean energy in a big big way with concerns about whether the grid rollout would be able to support the amount of energy that will be required and so that's a choice and consideration that has to be made in many places in the world if you look at this set of charts from the international energy agency on the future of hydrogen on the right hand side we see what is the cost that hydrogen can afford into the marketplace to be used across the varying markets and it's already used today as as an industry feedstock so it can command a high price and as you work along the right hand side here you can see trucks and cars are two of the the more premium energy spaces and other things along steel production and industrial heat and power are a bit more challenged in terms of the price that can be commanded if you look at things like commercial fleets that hydrogen has advantages and rapid refueling and so you can consider fuel cell taxis competing with internal combustion engines and maybe battery electric because of that fast refueling and high uptimes that that can come with hydrogen so again here's another way of looking at that chart from Bloomberg New Energy and what what sectors what's the cost of abatement for a given sector and again the mobility sector the way it's moving can almost be a cost competitive today without adding cost on CO2 in order to incentivize we'll get into more of that shortly the rest of the the decarbonization needs a bit of a carbon incentive factor so if we look at uh uh what sectors are really uh contributing most to the greenhouse gas emissions so in the US transport is about 28% and globally it may be about 14% and if we look at the US transport 59% of that is light duty vehicles but the medium and heavy duty is still a significant percentage of that 23% of that total of 28% of the US greenhouse gas emissions so there's a big target there in terms of decarbonizing heavier duty mobility now this is a a a chart from Sunita Satchapal who i work with on the hydrogen advisory come out the council for the DOE continually being updated and really shows the fuel cell deployments mostly in California where most of this has been rolled out to date in the US and now this Toyota Mirai is quite a big improvement over that prototype DOE vehicle i showed you earlier from the 1970 so this is now i actually drove one of those in Pittsburgh last year it's a legitimate vehicle and and certainly a competitive player in the light duty space but the real amazing story is uh is uh the forklifts and Andy Marsh and plug power so uh being one of the key players there but uh forklifts uh were rolled out with uh moved away from diesel and initially to battery electric because of the indoor air quality and working in these facilities but it was really overtaken by hydrogen and the reason for that was the the faster refueling time so that saved about 10 percent of the number of forklifts put a plus a lot of labor that was involved in the refueling and on its own economic merits alone it's now primarily the way you are getting packages all during this lockdown via warehouses at amazon home depot and and walmart etc so really a great success story and meeting a market need and uh and delivering uh cost and reliability when you look going forward the cost of making hydrogen from renewables uh it's more expensive today mainly because of the electrolyzer costs but by 2030 this is projected to be coming down in price so that uh that cost is going to be competitive with what we can do from natural gas uh reforming by 2030 and beyond and so you can think of one dollar a kilogram hydrogen is one dollar a gasoline equivalent in terms of energy so it's uh a kilogram is is a gallon equivalent energy and uh and so by 2030 or so uh hydrogen can be uh competitive in terms of the cost of being made from renewables as as what would come from uh current uh reforming of natural gas now this is a a chart from the IEA showing how that varies today in terms of the gray the pricing across the globe but again by 2030 the electrolysis is going to be very competitive in that space and that's really influencing some of the this uh decision making around rollouts the value of the hydrogen also depends on the use so if you're just burning it there's no great efficiency improvement but if you're using it in a fuel cell then you're avoiding the carno inefficiency and you're actually getting more use out of that in terms of the energy than just putting it into a heat engine so that has to be taken into play and and and considering the total value proposition of hydrogen and then also the amount of infrastructure so this is h2 mobility europe on the right hand side looking at the amount of infrastructure needed if you're going to go out hydrogen in a big way and namely a major portion of the economy is now coming from clean or renewables and if you electrify it's easy to electrify early on and hydrogen infrastructure uh takes more unit investment in order to get up and running but as you go to high degrees of penetration it may actually take less via those hydrogen pipelines and etc so the different uh companies involved in transport are looking at this in different ways so the top left is uh there's Volkswagen talking about uh well for light duty they're really uh looking at the electrification because of this efficiency issue again from source to wheels of 76 efficiency versus 30 for hydrogen so that works well for for the light duty and has become their focus if you look at the uh heavy duty mobility so scania and sweden is saying uh they're going to electrify the trucks now they've they've looked at both the hydrogen and electrification uh if you look at GM and Navistar they're staying with the hydrogen trucks the hydrogen council is pointing out that uh further developments in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle can make them more competitive than elective uh by the 2030 plus time frame so you're seeing a lot of different scenarios come out there in terms of the assumptions and what can happen certainly today uh with the incentives they're they're good incentives for electrification of the light duty fleets and the the morai fuel cell will have a difficult time competing with some of the options in the light your duty space there again more studies of what's called this total cost of ownership for the hydrogen economy so the the u.s road map would say fuel cells may be competitive on a total cost of ownership in the u.s with the internal combustion engines in the 2030 2035 type uh time frame and again uh another study from uh boomberg that says well maybe that'll be close to equal by by the 2030 time frame so you see different sets of numbers coming out depending upon uh the exact details of the scenarios in terms of how that will play out what everyone does say is that the costs today for hydrogen are high because of the small amounts of rollout in infrastructure and high unit prices for hydrogen because of that again more total cost of energy uh ownership plots from the ia future of hydrogen and a lot of that really is dependent upon uh what are the battery prices going forward into the future and also what are the uh electrolyzer costs in terms of making the hydrogen but also fuel cell on the fuel cell side so the technology evolution pathways will in part determine what is competitive in uh 2030 versus what we're seeing today and it's a difficult thing to tell but again looking at the heavier duty markets where you've got the higher power density that's required uh many are saying that the hydrogen fuel cell and the trucking and heavy duty mobility are going to be more cost effective as we move into 2030 and beyond but hydrogen gets squeezed and so you see uh in terms of operation time and power density uh the smaller vehicle's can be electrified although you may want to electrify that forklift if you want to have a commercial fleet and and charge it quickly you've got your hydrogen fuel cell space in the middle and then when it comes to the larger jet airliners and some of these uh longer distance mobility and higher higher power density plays such as a mining truck or something like that then you may need the synthetic or solar liquid hydrocarbon fuels for that type of power density so I would say that hydrogen is a bit squeezed by electrification on the light duty side to the solar fuels and biofuels on the very heavy duty side and a playing ground in the middle and it'll be interesting to see how that translates out so here's a airbus photo on the hydrogen for aviation and given uh where you have to store in the slightly lower volumetric energy density for the hydrogen it's a big fuselage with hydrogen it can't be put into the wings and it has range impacts for some of the planes that are being developed so again you may need the biofuels on the heavy end of the space there uh looking at what happens in terms of the migration towards city is in heavy industry and the need for power density versus the intrinsic energy density and power density coming in in terms of the renewable systems we've got a mismatch there and so you either need much more land to source the energy we need going forward as a civilization or we need to be able to source that from afar and and make these higher energy density carriers and so that's really an issue that has to be worked going forward in the energy system and a lot of the land right around the developing cities is is high priced and not so amenable to large wind and solar farms and so that issue really has to be considered in terms of how much do we want to rely on grid electrification and how much energy do we need to be moving in from afar in order to make this work if you see on the top right here we're talking about plot on grid storage options and and quite a bit this being in the battery space in terms of of what that storage supply would mean for outages and so if you look at solar purchase price agreements at the three cents a kilowatt hour you can make a dollar a kilogram hydrogen on that in in in the future which is the equivalent of a dollar a gas a gallon a dollar a gallon gasoline in that future cost with the reduction in electrolyzer price and so that's very compelling but that doesn't include any storage and if you look at what we can do in batteries for storage it's it's very challenged on a a large scale and for the large type of systems energy required to do that from for more than the one hour to maybe four hours and the storage costs are just enormous looking at those scenarios and so that's where hydrogen can come into play even though again you're taking a factor of two efficiency and making it as a carrier versus storing it in a battery so after the great blackout in texas i looked at well what would it take to convert my home to a residential storage because i can't count on the grid and that's five days outage it was not a black swan event we've had three of those in my lifetime the only black swan we had was the 60 inches of rain we got during hurricane hardy which was a true outlier but people tend to envision uh black swans as things that happen every 10 years and and sort of have a weak memory for for for the events i think the data really shows that if it really do the data analytics on on the history of renewable energy but the the bottom line on this one is the the hydrogen battery uh just coming into play in terms of what one can purchase is is 30 000 for three days storage to keep the house running so that i'm not losing power and having the pipes break the test for the power wall is about 24 000 and the natural gas generators are running quite a bit less than that so uh as a final uh introduction also looked at well what would it take to decarbonize the largest truck stop in the world which is in walk cut Iowa and uh and move that away from diesel to renewable energy and considering both battery electric and or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles how much land use is required and then what are the implications for a five-day outage again you can't count on solar and wind all the time over 10 year periods is being present and you either have to be able to re-engineer your systems to deal with five days of outage or you have to provide storage and then what would it take to be able to do that and the bottom line is the land use looks reasonable perhaps borderline if ethanol is used as a biofuel in that play but wind and solar certainly take a lot less land use it's twice as much for hydrogen but you have the ability to provide the the hydrogen storage and if you care about being able to to keep those trucks up and running over that five-day period and also deal with some of the day night then then hydrogen certainly makes a lot of sense in that space so where are things playing the hydrogen economy is really rolling out in europe and china because of the the high energy prices there and the and the policy and uh i guess i'll be uh this slide just points out what those energy price differentials are in different parts of the world and uh relative to natural gas in the united states in canada and that comes into play in terms of where you're deciding to to move renewable energy and uh where the alternative is and and how much incentive do you need to be able to switch from carbon producing fuels to to low carbon safety is another key consideration so we stood up the center for hydrogen safety with a i c h e a global institute to address the roll out of the hydrogen economy which is also very important for stakeholders so with that i will conclude uh certainly the the world will electrify and and that's a given for decarbonization if you don't care about storage and can be without energy for very long periods of time then perhaps you can work around some of these uh high energy energy energy density systems and figure out how to do that with with batteries and in that type of power density that's going to be a bit of a challenge but if you really want to integrate storage into that energy system then you either need hydrogen at maybe uh twice the amount of land use that that you had with uh just the battery storage and and the battery electric or you have to go to the synthetic fuels which will require four times that amount of space and higher cost fuels and it can use existing infrastructure so with that i will conclude my talk i've given my contact information on the bottom left there and be happy to address questions or i guess we have a follow-up session after this one too yeah that's uh Joe if you don't mind let's do some a few open questions because we got quite a few and then that'll lead into the student registered student session that was absolutely terrific as evidenced by the large number of viewers and the large number of questions i'm now looking at 42 open questions which i think might be a new 44 start with the salt cavern so that's a great question and anywhere you've got salt caverns you've got very low cost hydrogen storage and the big problem is you don't have them everywhere so we've got them on the gulf coast you don't have them in california maybe a few in europe but but that's a really good one in terms of an option for low hydrogen storage cost but uh so but not ubiquitous go ahead john so that was a theme uh one that came up over and over again for different perspectives as people were intrigued by the idea of using existing uh transmission and distribution capacity namely existing natural gas pipelines how far can you go with that and how far do you recommend that we think about going yeah i've got a plot for the class lecture in some places you can blend up to 30 into the the pipelines and then maybe consider fishing the hydrogen out of a mixture which is a challenge and but in many places the the blend ratio is going to be well below 10 percent and maybe three percent and so there are issues with the welds and there's also in terms of retrofitting some of the the polymeric piping and and and lining and so that's another whole lecture but uh my impression is there's going to be quite a lot of new infrastructure and the amount of retrofitting and and burner certainly the burner replacements can be done but the but the retrofitting is is going to be uh partially doable for a blend difficult for a hundred percent hydrogen and we're going to require a lot of infrastructure investment if we're going to go into a truly clean hydrogen uh as as a as a vector oh combine a couple of different themes there there is a uh some concern probably related to how you transport about these uh smallness of the hydrogen molecules leading to more leaks so the question is is that is that a problem in terms of explosions or affecting atmospheric chemistry and a more general question is is there an issue going back to hinder hinderberg i guess uh about public health and safety that might impede public acceptance i know you've probably thought about this more than anybody yeah well it's not toxic and uh the high atmosphere environmental uh and greenhouse issues are are considered well very low uh with the best science that i'm aware of today so uh the issue really is the the flammability uh the interesting thing about hydrogen is it snakes up directly it's extremely buoyant and so uh when some of the fire marshals are looking at the uh the uh automobile wreck scenarios and the hydrogen is going straight up and in some cases it's safer than uh than a liquid fuel pool fire so i think people are getting comfortable with that uh certainly one needs to to stay on guard from it and that's really why we rolled out the center for hydrogen safety is to get the experience out there in terms of using and and working with it i think the yellow flame on the hindenberg was really the polymeric uh skin on the uh on the uh dirgeable itself that uh was a large part of the issue but uh so certainly we believe it can be handled and but uh safety certainly cannot be uh has to be very rigorously addressed and we have to have a very safe rollout to get stakeholder acceptance another big picture thing probably just recognizing your long experience booth at the top of the private sector and public sector is from your point of view uh how would you uh who should decide how fast to go with either electrification or hydro vacation um but put differently what kind of what kind of uh public partner a prior uh partnership would you recommend what should the role of governments do what to the role of the private sector do philanthropy you know international organizations and whatnot that's quite a loaded question so uh you see different approaches around the world depending upon uh you know how people like to organize their uh uh political systems just pick you ask them so in the u.s. uh i think we're in a bit of a transition but uh we see a lot of policy in california uh we see some emerging acceptance in the rest of the country but i think we're lagging because we don't have more centralized decision making and and you see where it is a bit more centralized and they make uh perhaps more strategic investment decision decisions but also uh in places like europe uh japan you know they also have those higher energy prices that go with that and so it's a little bit less of a of a trade off to be addressed and so i really see a hodgepodge of that going forward and and that's what really makes it exciting because we're going to see quite a number of these different types of energy systems roll out and and be optimized and in varying in various places but uh certainly the incentives are there in in california the industry commitments are there to be decarbonizing and if we're looking at transporting hydrogen from texas to california we could also look at decarbonizing the route along that transport and and and starting to get some long-range transit decarbonization along i-10 i-20 type roadways and etc so we're now up to 52 questions and everybody wants your data and your charts and your references you probably get a lot of it the co2 through electrolysis i would say usually electrolysis uh you capture co2 coming off of methane steam reforming and then electrolysis uh is coming at it from removal energy and water and although there are some uh ways you can incorporate co2 into uh capture systems that are looking interesting from a fuel cell point of view that might be a whole other talk i i think people are on all sides maybe dying at one last question if i can impose on you a little bit is there is this emerging debate between uh as you put it the green and blue hydrogen it sounds like you have probably the most balanced view of that whole field uh how do you think about that in terms of what would be you know good desirable useful economic equitable and whatnot well i believe clean is clean and i do know that some stakeholders like microsoft really need the green energy for their data center storage and understand that and so i think those in the industry need to be playing into the stakeholder needs that are out there and but i would hope we could also look at a as an optimization problem and be green where it makes the most sense in terms of uh uh further off grid and and the infrastructure required to connect and where those integrations go still use the the so-called blue or the uh the hydrogen coming off of uh natural gas reforming via to steam methane or at autothermal reforming or gasification and really optimize the system because i believe at the end of the day there's only a certain amount of time energy and infrastructure investment to go around and if we make the most efficient choices around the globe we're going to be doing the best job of decarbonizing because it takes not only money and resources but also time to deploy this so we we really need to look at it and decide which is best where and and and do all the above on that note i'd like to thank you for a terrific seminar it was so full of facts and insights truly an amazing performance and i think inspiring to all of us we have to check the record books but i think just on zoom this is kind of our all-time record without even considering the live streamer so i think people were aware of what you might present even before you presented and it seemed quite pleased with what you said so i hope you're able to follow up with a few folks for them and for me i i do think by the end you had actually in your later slides answered a lot of the previous questions there's still a little a few out there but i think the kilowatt hour battery was maybe uh assuming a 150 by 2030 versus a 650 or so today i don't know if i get these uh like i would get on ms teams with a set of questions people would like me to feedback on or if you would uh can capture those i'll be happy to try what we might do is i think our zoom guru justin can actually gets this transcript of questions so we could actually forward those to you if you would like yeah i can do that and then perhaps you can post those and i'll try to got it got it fill in the the answers to those that i didn't have time i apologize for going a bit long today oh yeah but well worthwhile just so much in there something for everybody it was just an amazing seminar so thank you again please come visit us when we're able to travel again i'm sure our local group that's trying to spin up a hydrogen initiative would love to talk to you further uh it was a truly outstanding seminar thank you so much Joe and we'll now transition you into the student portion of the program all right well thank you john and it's always a privilege to be involved and i look forward to further interaction so thank you great thank you sir