 Week 15 the NFL was a thriller from start to finish. We had an okay game Thursday night But just banger after banger on Saturday. We had fun games all throughout the day on Sunday following that World Cup So coming down from a bit of a hide a recap week number 15. We're gonna break down a key Usages roll changes injuries note from week 15 take a look forward to week 16 in our final recap podcast of the year This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonice. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula, he is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week 15 is in the books It was pretty fun. How you doing today? Doing pretty good some fun football to watch a little annoyed that you keep beating me And our head to heads and that I have been jokingly Suggesting that I'll throw this that I have to buy a really big hat But I'm getting a little bit nervous. So if you could stop winning I'd appreciate that I still have to win two out of the final three to tie you though, which means I dug myself a big old hole I won the first two and somehow I'm still in this situation one the first two have won the past three Um It's something we get that we got to this point, you know what they say though Jim before October and after Thanksgiving is Jim Hember. Jim. Yeah Yeah, we did get a little bit of December Derek Henry yesterday. That was fun I enjoyed that but overall a fun slate because honestly, I think it was because the teams I like wound up playing pretty well like a huge Jags guy now Love the Jaguars like they're a delight. I had a I had say Jones or had dad basically need nothing else to cash It's a Jones. Derek Henry did all the work for me. That's all you needed. You know Yeah, I mean, it's fun and look if you Have listened to the show before you know that we talk about like mistake erasers and guys who actually have upside and yeah Hey, Jones mistake, but but there's a difference between saving salary with Is a Jones who gets volume can get downfield work We know he has you know touched on upside is in an offense that can score points It's a lot different than maybe punting with someone like a Chris Moore was down there as well these these players on teams that Don't necessarily have as good of situations and so, you know, it's important and it's something that we're gonna have to keep in mind The rest of the way because we're gonna start to get this guy's kind of out for the season So we're getting some backups and that doesn't necessarily mean that those guys have the juice That we need that win juice that we desire and looking ahead to the week 16 main slate There are a lot of studs with very high salaries So we're gonna want to get to so we got to decide which those value plays have upside to justify their inclusion And that will not be easy. Well, so we'll talk about that We'll talk about Salaries and the week 16 slate and get you set for that and take a look back and be 15 in just one second First a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts unique schedule for this week because we have the Christmas holidays coming up I will be doing our week 16 main slate show on Wednesday instead of Thursday So main slate show Wednesday will still have one round of injury reports at that point. So not totally flying in the dark there That'll be up on Wednesday. We're courting live on the fandal YouTube page at noon eastern on Wednesday So if you want to get that make sure you're subscribed there Also, check us out in the number fire daily fantasy podcast See wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well With only a handful of Monday night football games remaining this season fandal and visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday nights that an all-time high Introducing Monday night perfect picks presented by visa a free-to-play contest on fandal that gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in cash prizes courtesy of visa. Here's how it works You'll be presented with 10 questions centered around on-field action for Monday nights NFL game Fan to answer the most questions correctly when they're share of the $10,000 prize pool It's that easy the contest is now live said a fandal comm slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks and make your picks Before Monday night. That's fandal comm slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks No purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply avoid were prohibited See full terms at fandal comm visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way Let's start things off with the headliner this week and with no like key key injuries There's a couple we could talk about no massive role changes. We're gonna talk about our Jags The headliners here for week number 15 because you brandy you did a trend two weeks ago about the Jags upside and Since then Evan Enger was gone for like 155 and 2 and Z Jones went for like a buck 30 and 3 So the Jags have upside we should talk about that. It's a very DFS friendly offense Trevor Lawrence in this game against the Cowboys 318 yards And he's now thrown for at least 300 yards in three of the past four games He has three more touchdowns and three of the four as well He has multiple rushing multiple rush attempts in each game. His success is extending to the past catchers too because on Sunday Three different guys on the Jags had 92 scrimmage yards Those were trying to see TN with 127 say Jones at 109 Christian Kirk in 92 Since their week 11 by the Jags ranked second in the NFL in passing that expected points per drop back in although the rushing isn't been efficient Travis E TN has had a 70% Snapshare in those as well. So Brandon How high is too high to get an outward Jags? I don't know if the limit exists Jim I watched a Lindsay Lohan movie on Netflix. It's a Christmas movie and it was pretty good I don't mean it was like good, but it was like entertaining Falling for Christmas would recommend. Yeah, but I mean all those movies like you got to scale a movie To what the expectation is or else most movies are gonna enjoy myself. I thought it was one Yeah, I mean, this is a really fun offense. It's got Multiple players we can consider but not so many that it's impossible to predict Generally the salaries are low. I don't know what it's gonna look like they play on Thursday So it's gonna be a single game slate with their salaries But, you know, we'll see what they do against the Jets I think that'll be a really tough test for them to see how they come out on a short week after a pretty emotional win against Dallas. I think the irony in all of this is If you look specifically at those past four games where Lawrence has 300 yards or more and at least three touchdowns and in three of the four the one outlier was At the Lions when he had a hundred and seventy-nine yards in a touchdown It's a little bit strange to see that but I mean all things considered. It's a fun offense Ideally the salaries are not that, you know, look, it's a single game slate That's a whole different ballgame, but presumably they're not gonna do a ton Against the Jets and come back to us on a main slate after I'm assuming 17 main slate Whenever we see them next And so the salaries might be in check, but yeah, this this offense is fun. It's great We get ETN, Zay, Kirk and Lawrence and maybe some Ingram as well Yeah, I do think that Christian Kirk is gonna is gonna have a big game here pretty soon It might actually be on Thursday because the Jets outside Wilder Severs are pretty sick and you look at their usage recently and honestly like Kirk is pretty much right there with Zay if you look at their like full season numbers almost identical in terms of usage in this game on Sunday Kirk had four deep targets compared to three for Zay so I think that They're kind of the same and So when Zay was eight hundred dollars lower salary this week it made sense to go to Zay But if you're talking about Thursday specifically, that's a good time I think to go back to Kirk because he still has like if we're talking about Jags with upside He is in that discussion still despite the fact it's been a bit of a lull for him The one guy I have a little bit of concern on his ETN. He had a fumble again this week He left the game a bit for an ankle to be checked for an ankle He came back obviously and so played a lot of snaps his yardage was good this week for the first time in a while slight concern there given that the The foot injuries slash ankle injuries have been there quite a bit There have been some fumbles and stuff like that I think that's like if I were to mention any negatives here be a little bit of concern on ETN But I mean everything else I think is firing in all cylinders also their defense stinks, which is great for us for DFS Yeah, ETN according to the next gen stats model 58% rushing success rate this week 1.07 rushing yards over expectation per carry Not not good EPA numbers because of the fumble, but right I'm I'm with you But it's also we're getting to the point in the NFL season where we might get some guys who step into 75 80% snap rates that are still at low salaries just because of the way the end of the season works But as it stands, it's hard to hate on ETN If he's gonna be in the 7,000 range with his his workload tied to a good offense and especially because like I know the The points are not there been there recently, but he scored 11 this week with no touchdowns and a fumble, which means he was around like 13 Just based on yards and scrimmage, which is pretty good I had him I had him an 18 expected Vandal points based on the underlying data for him this week Yeah, this week four out of 11 red zone chances. He's still got a good role This is not a Devon single Terry like 70 no no percent snap rate thing. Yeah He is now at a hundred or more yards and scrimmage in one two three four five six Games this year pretty good number so ETN If it weren't for like those foot injuries kind of like being there in the fumbles I'd be much much higher on him buying in but I'm still I'm still high Just that's the one thing holding me back a little bit there Let's go to the injury section here from week number 15 starting off with that Saturday game Jonathan Taylor suffered another ankle injury on Saturday. It's a mild sprain But still manned to season according to Adam Schefter Zach Moss was the lead back here for the Colts He played 67% of the snaps ahead of Dion Jackson at 32% Moss had 24 carries and one target for 81 yards and a very very positive script for their up 33 nothing at halftime What went wrong after that? He had eight of four out of 14 red zone chances. So the offense is bad I think Moss ran a route on just 10 out of 36 drop backs But shook it the early down work and that's worth something at least so how would you view moss if we assume Taylor misses time? Man, this is a this is a tough one Because I'm coming off of a getting burned by Deontay Foreman situation this week where he kind of take like someone with an early down roll and an offense that you know is not flawless by any means and I don't know it on that broadcast like they're talking about Zach Moss being like the power back and like being Good and I'm not sure that he's like great He was like a throw-in in the not-heem-hines trade and you don't make a guy throw in If he's a difference maker. So like I don't want to get like I don't want to I Don't want to be dismissive of someone who could have you know a pretty sizable role with I mean he had what eight red zone carries Yeah Like I don't want to be dismissive of that But I also I don't like to to play guys based on their salary and I think if I played Zach Moss It would be because he's at a low salary not because I liked him Yeah salary Yeah, yeah, I think so I think the Foreman comp is good because we have no evidence to suggest that he get work in the passing game I think Deon Jackson is better in the passing game like Zach Moss. I think at Utah was pretty involved I can't remember like I know that he has passing game ability But I'm guessing they'd probably prefer Deon Jackson in that role. So If they get the Chargers, which means it's a good matchup that's on Monday night so it's a good matchup and Means that they might be involved because the Chargers refused to rent to win in like convincing fashion But like I think that for me honestly, it's one of the situations where I'm glad it's not on the main slate I don't like I don't want to deal with it Yeah, so all right, let's say let's say it wasn't the main slate. It's a good matchup on the ground What kind of salary would would you? 64 like that's a foreman was this week. Yeah, that's that's kind of what I'm thinking if you if you would be like 68 I'd be I can't consider Yeah, for sure. Yeah, so it's different, but yeah, let's talk about the main slate and again that could have been fun But now That is the chiefs and the Seahawks next week Tyler Lockett Broke his finger almost will certainly will miss this week against the chiefs Could be back as soon as week 17 Lockett played almost the entire game and he has not missed significant time this season So not a lot to go with in terms of a sample on Then without lock it week 15 lock it tie DK Metcalf for a team high nine targets Marquise Goodwin was running the third most routes already behind lock it and the Metcalf He had five targets on Thursday. I know a fan had six targets. So I think lock it is a good enough player where You get into the discussion of does or how much does he downgrade the offense not being there? I think that's the legit thing as far as like Gino and How do we view guys like Metcalf Goodwin and Phant with lock it being out against the cheese Yeah, I think you do have to downgrade them, but You know, I don't know what the slate's gonna look like just yet. It's it's early in the show. We start to be like let that unfold I'm sure there's gonna be weather concerns for some games to make them even worse. I don't know if there's weather concerns for this game object But presumably this is gonna be one of the better games and so I will kind of anticipate being there with Whatever value is available The fact that Goodwin already was involved is a different situation than you know Trying to project who's gonna step into a bigger role So if he's like low five thousands, I could see myself Plugging him in there to get some access to my homes Kelsey And just game stack this one, but yeah, I kind of hope that the Kenneth Walker Not huge game has his salary reasonable. Yeah And I think that his you know, he can't Speaking of you know catching passes in college Kenneth Walker can catch passes apparently in the NFL. So I Kind of have my fingers crossed for for Kenneth Walker this week. Where do you think that salary should be on? Oh first weather? So no snow there Wind speeds around 10 miles per hour is not bad. However, eight degrees at kickoff. It's a little chilly Little chilly. That's fine though. That's not like that doesn't end the world So name me a salary on I think we know met cap We don't need to worry about that but like name me a salary on Kenneth Walker and Marquise Goodwin and also know a fan out of curiosity Walker probably He should be in like the 74 75 range still I think I thought 77 was mine Goodwin I Would play him In this game assuming it's gonna be as good as I think it is relative to the rest So long as he's below 6,000, but I would realistically say like 57 Yeah, that's not like Gallup range. Yeah, and then Phant probably that name by the way, don't say Gallup That's yeah, please don't My Michael Gallup and Zay Jones game stacks combined for like 33 points though Yeah, and Phant probably somewhere in like the I've put him like a bubble cool Commet this week by a tinge should maybe like 50 54 I think he is cool commit. Yeah, that's fine 53, but I use commit at 53. So that's not a bad thing Okay, so Kenneth Walker was right there. He is 69. That's all right. Nice. Nice. That's right down down. Ha ha We have value ha ha Now the one thing with that is downgrading the team probably hurts him more than it hurts other guys So that's worth noting but still it and we didn't like get into him But 75% snap rate 64% route rate the production just wasn't there buddy Let's party. Ah First time in like it feels like five weeks that we've actually had a write-down for a running back Yeah, well for any receivers that like a few but I feel like it's been at least two weeks And I've had any write-downs at all like I've had DJ shark two of the past not this past week like two weeks before that I was that was just me maybe but Um 69 is a write-down salary for Kenneth Walker. Let's look at DK's for funds. He's 8,000. That's fine. I think that's fair Marky's good win 58. So right amount of thoughts not a write-down, but good enough and Noah fan is 53. Hey So we we did a pretty good job there. We were and we were high on Walker, but that's not 77 on Walker So I was a little bit higher than you were even. Yeah, um, that's sick. I'm I'm okay with that Might end up it's it is 10 18 Eastern time Monday morning We have been through like three blurbs. I might have a hundred percent Kenneth Walker for the Saturday main slate. I'm into it I'm into it. Okay Colt McCoy suffered a concussion. He was ruled out for the Cardinals that left trace McSorley or McScorley depending on you know how things go perspective It's it's like the Nate Sudfeld thing if he doesn't do a lot. It's Nate Sudfeld if he does score It's Nate Studfeld. So just you know McScorley's with is out there didn't do a whole lot on Sunday negative point 39 passing that expected points per drop back for McSorley picked off twice. I Was off this passing offense with McCoy, especially in a matchup with the Broncos So that's not gonna be better for this. You still could have considered James Connor He had 24 carries in a target for 91 yards in a 92% snap rate. I Just don't know what the upside is in this offense I'm probably out whether it's McCoy or McSorley unless it's a sick matchup and a low salary What about you if we assume the coin misses time? Yeah, so in this game specifically 31% target share for DeAndre Hopkins 11 targets for 60 yards Catrate over expectation of basically minus 12 mark East Brown minus 23% Catrate over expectation on his eight targets for 19 yards. Wow How do you get how do you get Mark East Brown eight targets for 19 yards? I mean, we know that's that's We know the answer back up. So again, like, you know it's not that everyone's in play on a single game slate, but a single game slate is extremely different than Having this game on a I play the bucks on Sunday night. So like they'll be on a three game slate You could probably differentiate by going there, but obviously that's well So see obviously that's not a priority for anybody, but then we get the games to get there Yeah, Green Bay at Miami. We were gonna do a full podcast on this But I have to change my travel plans. There's a giant snowstorm in the Midwest. I'm driving So I'm glad I can't we can't do a show on this pot on that slate. It's bad We'll just to finish that Green Bay at Miami Denver at the Rams. So That's the Nickelodeon game. Oh Does that change things? Yeah Kids across America crying This is one of those though like you could spend it and just be like no because this is a defensive battle like that What was the was it the Patriots? Ram Super Bowl like nine six or whatever it was and people were like, no, this is a great defensive showing It's like no, this is as bar terrific offense that there's a difference. Yeah Yeah, I think like with the Cardinals if they're on a main slate I just don't think they have the juice to like you talked about mistake erasers Can anyone on that team be a mistake eraser with this bad of quarterback play? I don't think because like the thing is you would say well Hopkins is still gonna get his volume And he got 11 targets for 60 yards like and that can turn into 11 targets for a bit more You know, but I don't think it's like one 16 to two It's not like 20 point upside and and we're not gonna get Hopkins in like the 6000 range to account for any of this So no, I don't really think that there's a whole lot of interest for this team on a main slate I agree. Okay. Caleb Huntley left for the Falcons in the ankle injury and did not return It helped springboard Tyler Algier to 136 yards overall 17 carries in a target He did play fewer snaps than quarter of Patterson and Avery Williams still got some passing game work So even you take Huntley out of this backfield. I don't think I'll be super into either Algier or Patterson. What about you? I Mean they ran a ton more which well, they ran a ton Not necessarily more but with Desmond Redder. I don't I think you're gonna get a big Dip in efficiency overall I just don't I don't this is not the kind of the backfield that we target If you have two guys who are playing 40 of snaps, I at least need it to be like JK Dobbins tied to Lamar Jackson to consider it Um, I I have no interest in in Atlanta backs including Cordero And I haven't really been there all season I agree. We'll talk about the passing offense because that could be different in the Philosophical section not truly an injury here because Austin Eckler did return But I wanted to talk about him and I felt like this is the best place to do it He was dealing with some kind of injury and left for a bit to get his arm examined He finished with just three targets. That was his second lowest mark this year Joshua Kelly had 10 carries and two targets. So Part of the usage was Eckler missing time But I also think that having both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy Could impact things for Eckler. So are you lowering Eckler at all based on his usage on sunday? Yeah, I mean Look, we're we're not the hugest Advocates of playing Austin Eckler from like him. We just don't like using him Yeah, and we understand that what the upside is we understand that there are odds that he burns us But it's not a perfect role Um And I think you made a great point with having Allen and and Mike Williams back because this would have been what just their second Full game together Full game because last week was their first. Yeah full because we were arguing about Justin Herbert um They're not I used to my highest dollar single entry lineup and I hated myself Herbert. Yeah I had I had Zay in it and it just didn't matter um I just like it's one of those where They're not gonna need to run Eckler into the ground And so he still could come on I'm not saying like he won't see the field between the 20s But like he still has multiple touchdown upside. I'm sure because he's not playing 30. He's not this is not a deandre swif situation Um, and it's not going to be no But the odds that he torches us go down drastically if he doesn't get the chance for 10 targets So I think he's probably going to be hard at some point Yardage matters. Yeah And like it's hard to get yardage if you're coming into like pounding touchdowns and stuff Yeah so I think it's a downgrade despite that despite that I'm still kind of thankful that he's not on the main slate because oh, yeah for sure Because that's still be fearful. He'd go for four touchdowns Which is 24 fandal points and have like 30 yards and be like, ah, I got 27. Ha ha. I feel like dang it So, yes, I agree. I'm grateful. He's not on the main slate Okay, let's dig into roll changes here from this past week This one is noteworthy because we talked about before the bears bi-week Justin Fields running less Coming up that shoulder injury that did not carry over past the bi 15 carries 95 yards and a touchdown Or sorry, no touchdown to that one got called back. He had a seasonless six carries before their bi Fields did leave briefly seemed like he was cramping He's mentioned feeling tired legs recently, but um Kind of just kept going despite that So it's fields back to being like a no brainer dfs elite play regardless of the game environment once again because of the rushing So we're gonna we're gonna have to answer that question Because they play the bills this week They host the bad weather in that game I mean, this is where i'm driving to so like of course there's bad weather I mean if you if you told if you told me we were getting a late december game Between buffalo and chicago. I was like, I doesn't matter where it is the the weather's gonna be bad. Yeah But yeah, I mean like We'll figure out like a salary here, but if this is more in a vacuum Uh, this would be a really good spot. Um, or a really good Trend to see fields rushing the way that he did he looked really good And I thought maybe he like heard his ankle or hamstring But it was I think just about his hamstring and he came back. So um, yeah, I mean if he was playing a neutral matchup indoors like Wheels up against buffalo with terrible weather Maybe a little bit worse, but to see him rush like this is phenomenal. So it's it's 19 mile per hour wins Which is you don't throw that don't matter. That's true. Um, he has no one to throw to uh, because I think someone else got hurt in this game He had a touchdown pass to Byron Pringle. Did that quite make me the same brown? I think he did. Yeah Yeah, he had concussion. Um, there was no chase clay pool in this game. It's just combat basically. Um, Made me a salary on fields against the bills Factoring in the fact that there will be high winds and high winds temperatures High winds bad weather tough matchup nobody to throw to I feel like he should be like 84 I thought to 78 Low enough to be tempting. Yeah, is what I would say on that. Yeah, if he's gonna run 15 times I mean, he might run 20 times if the weather is that bad and they just Yeah, I would say that would also be a good thing for David Montgomery But Cleal Herbert elves will come back this week. I think this is his first week where he can come back so to be determined on that, um, but That's uh, that's low enough for fields to be at least No worthy. I would say Yeah For sure Okay With no debo Samuel the 49ers Continue to feed Christian McCaffrey. He had 26 carries and a team by eight targets For 138 total yards and a rushing touchdown George Kittle scored twice. He had 93 yards and five targets Do you want Jennings also with five targets Brandon at you cat four? McCaffrey Is like vintage McCaffrey right now, uh, but with debo out a few more weeks Where are you with Kittle? I you can potentially Joanne Jennings Uh, it's tough like Kittle's salary is going to go up after the game that he had but the the volume's still concerning um, I you you Like tied tied to Brock priority. I think you need more volume for me to feel great. I'm not saying it's A bad situation. Well, yeah, it's a better situation than he had before Let's I'm not saying it's like as bad a situation as it could be for some teams like maybe the cardinals, but It's really hard with the amount of usage that McCaffrey's getting To want to play anyone else This kind of feels like McCaffrey just went From carolina To a really good situation that got really bad really fast in a way and like he might just be Doing everything himself again. I mean like George Kittle is great. I think Brandon Ayuk is is really like The offense is still efficient. So he's doing everything himself, but like because of him. Yeah, so like it's fun It's it is better. It's not as good as it could be But I don't I don't really have a whole lot of interest in like chasing the Kittle touchdowns. Yeah, he's 7 000 So that's high. That's that's tough after five targets Yeah, like you need Ayuk to get more than four targets, and I'm not sure how much he'll get Yeah, so where are you with Ayuk? Give me a salary for Ayuk. It's 68. That's way too high for me So I'm not going to bother with McCaffrey though Like okay, he's got to be in the 9 000 range like so he's facing Washington tough defense But we saw Christian McCaffrey or sake one Barkley do plenty against him last night McCaffrey is getting 10 8 10 targets a game So we don't really care about the rushing matchup like his salary is 94 You could you could tell me it was 10 000 and I would be like, okay That makes sense that I think that to me says 94 is either it's it's not too high It's either appropriate or too low. It's one of those two to me Yeah, I think it's totally viable. The question is just Can we get there? But I guess maybe the real question is Is this back to a Christian McCaffrey situation where we need to find ways to get there because he's going to get us 20 And if you can kind of pencil in 20, you don't really write that off too quickly so not only does he have the The yardage that he's had in the games without Eli Mitchell. I think his red zone chair is like 69 Somewhere percent. It's very high um so he has Like 130 yards like kind of baked in which is 13 points not counting the half points for a catch plus any touchdowns so like I think he's actually like really really worth seeking out again. I think my answer is yes to that So then we we need to find ways to get to mccaffrey. So he's by that logic. He should be a write down 69.2 red zone chair for mccaffrey in four full games without Eli Mitchell 149 yards in scrimmage 146 153 138 It's insane seems good. I think he's almost a write down So all right, it's gonna sound how it sounds but I need to do the math here in three So would you play christy mccaffrey at 82 and kenneth walker at 81 together Yes, and I think I can do that or or like if you need walker to be 77 and mccaffrey be like 80 85 or like Happily without a doubt So I pretty much have my two running backs for you Those two running backs are I liked henry a lot this week. I liked etan. I liked chimera I think those two guys are better than any running back play we had this week. Would you agree with that? I could not even find a third love for the the preview show for this week. So yeah, I agree Okay, uh, I accidentally called Seyquan barkley christian mccaffrey earlier So let's talk about seyquan barkley right now bounce back after his neck injury last week 87 snap rate season high eight targets for seyquan barkley His 34 adjust opportunities were his third highest mark of the year He ran well What that's a lot of that's a lot to be your third best game Uh, he ran well against a very tough defense They're currently in the playoffs facing the vikings next week tough rush defense, but not the best defense overall So are we buying back into seyquan barkley after this game? I think so, um I just can't get as excited about him as mccaffrey. That's not Disregard mccaffrey that's locked in Talk to me about seyquan or independent of that, but i'm saying like we're probably gonna have to face that question And we might not depending on seyquan's previous salaries. I've not looked at his salary yet But I think there's a chance it might be low. That's true Um, give me your salary on seyquan, but then we'll go from there. All right, so he had 87 percent of snaps 75 percent of routes eight targets He's got to be like 88 I agree 85 Can I make that work? Uh So if you go with seyquan mccaffrey kenneth You're at 58 67 left with no defense. Um, so let's put in The buddy that's just gonna put in the bears. That seems kind of bad kind of gross. Um Let's go with carolina to traverse hosting. How dare you come on Against against my son jared. No. Yeah rude rude Um, I'll put in the bears whatever Uh 64 20 left without a quarterback yet So we need a lot of value at titan receiver, but I think that's doable And I think that seyquan's kind of worth it He's like a he's like a right down in pencil Yeah with with the eraser in hand. Um, but I think that's still intriguing because The usage on sunday was good. That's fine But I thought he looked better And I don't want to use eye test to like dictate a lot of stuff for me because like that can lead you astray a lot of times But when it's eye test After they've been in a slump and it's paired with good usage. I'm okay factoring that in that I was gonna say, you know who else looked really good in that game brian robinson Every time we got the ball. He was like running like crazy and I was wondering who you're gonna say because I can I guess johan dottsin looked good. Does that count? Yeah, yeah, because I yeah, I still have a lot of nightmares forever for Taking sky more over johan dottsin in a dynasty league, but it is what it is But you know rob like yeah, so it's not just eye test because you'll find some guys who look really good And the role is not quite there. So I think 85 is a half right down what what you said Like I think the bigger takeaway is running back this week is infinitely better than it was last week so far And this is not the backpedal on mccaffrey because I love it and I think that he should be someone to prioritize But if there's not enough value to the point where I have to bump down from mccaffrey to barkley Great consolation price. I'm okay with that. Yeah, absolutely wholeheartedly agree If you had to bump down to jerry mckinnon, how about that? Uh, his role got even better this week He played 62 of the snaps. He had 10 carries. What the 10 carries were a season high It was the second time with at least a 60 snap rate mckinnon had 120 yards in scrimmage for the second straight game azepa check out lost a fumble so the increase in rush attempts for mckinnon wasn't just because the game went to ot So we talked mckinnon last week, but it's now been confirmed for another game And it wasn't just on like broken plays as we saw last week So where are you on mckinnon now after another positive bump? Yeah, it's weird because we've loved mckinnon forever on this podcast and now it comes at the expense of isiah pacheco who we also love so I got but Over the past two games now combined. He's at a 59 snap rate 63 percent of the routes eight and a half targets per game in that span That's Sick, I did although I did think that whenever you said, uh, those 10 carries were a season high I thought you were going to say those 10 carries were his first 10 of the season But He's got a pretty solid red zone role He's the guy that kind of kept me off of isiah pacheco in the past in the red zone 29 red zone opportunity share of the past two games One red zone target per game getting getting some downfield work As well, which is wild. I haven't two downfield targets 10 plus yards downfield over the past two games. So I feel good Give me a salary for mckinnon so it's hard because like He's a better version of like old school james white. I think is the way to phrase it Yeah, I'd agree with that and that's probably worth around like 69 or so right Yeah, I'd say It once there's a seven there. I'm a little like I don't know if it's that good of a situation Yeah, because if they were to get out of head, I don't think his role would be what it has been I mean, right that game this past week was a lot closer than it Houston's doing some stuff Um, yeah, but his salary 60 or sorry 73 Okay, it's a little high Chekhov's 67 He has had 97 93 82 86 107 82 yards from scrimmage the past five games I think 67 on pacheco Actually is low enough to tempt me if if he winds up being like 10 rostered. Absolutely not Hard pass. I can't justify that. But if he winds up where no one's going to use him I think that's low enough where you can consider it And uh, I'll have another note um on kansas city, but they've been a little more run heavy Um lately they play seattle who is not particularly good. They're bad against the rush Fifth in uh rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to running back specifically I just want to get a read on that situation in terms of like projected roster rates because if we can get pacheco at You know on zero rosters. That's very intriguing Yeah Uh, one question from william. I'm sorry running back running back stack in that game Oh, yeah, fine. Yeah, really appealing. Yeah Good question from william on youtube asking how much would michael harbin's return impact mckinnon That's actually a pretty good question. I think because harbin does get like similar usage in terms of like Short dump offs. He can get some rushing attempts as well Would hardman's assumed return impact and I guess also cadarius tony being back with those impact your view of mckinnon Your willingness to pay 73 They would but I mean to be clear like my willingness to pay 73 is not that high to begin with I think he's a bit capped it. Yeah, you know what his salary would be so If we get those guys back and healthy um I still think he's over salary to begin with but then I would Probably backpedal even more. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I agree. Um, I think that there are I just still question the upside. Um, this I know that like he's done it twice now So I shouldn't but just a little bit concerning there I don't think we've even known on cadarius tony, but he ran just three routes this past week. So I need to see more there. It also does not impact juju or kelsey for me yet So even with harbin and back, I think that kelsey juju is still totally fine plays. Uh, kelsey's salary is 86. My gosh Um juju 73 that's fine. Um, but I think the ground game will be worth digging into more as we get set for wednesday show Yeah It's just disappointing because it didn't score because I did call the 100 yard game, but I think he and juju combined to like catch 20 of 20 targets which is Pretty sick. Okay. So the browns actually have a chance to make the playoff still and nick chub quietly played A season high 72 snap rate for the browns on saturday It's a 1 shot. So, you know, that is what it is But chub had 21 carries and two targets 99 yards and scrimmage against a very tough baltimore defense Would an increased snap rate push up your interest in chub heading into week 16 It would because my interest in nick chub is generally zero and has been zero um I don't want to get ahead of myself because I don't like what this offense has done with the shan watson. It's been pretty bad Yeah, uh, they've been a little bit more pass heavy than their full season rate, but I don't necessarily know if that's like a good thing because Still not very impressed with the situation uh, I for whatever reason my TV service did not record the browns ravens game. So I had to watch the like 12 minute cut up um on youtube, which is a Really good like tool if that's all you have to work with but That game was so uninteresting That I I struggled to get through the 12 minute cut up. So yeah, the pride tells me some things about how I feel about the browns offense And the numbers back it up too. So give me a salary for nick chub um Well, the weather plays into this, uh, weather in cleveland on saturday Three to seven inches of snow in the morning. Um nice Temperatures 14 degrees, but 27 mile per hour winds So I just built out this totals model. We're into this live because it's not I don't know. It's good enough to like I can give away stuff. Anyway, okay. So right now if I run it Without adjusting for this week yet, um And without putting wind in if I assume zero mile per hour winds total for that game would be 44.1 If I put in 27 mile per hour winds it goes down to 39.5, which does imply the over is still interesting um, but It's low if you put in 27 mile per hour winds so low total Not a terrible defense in the saints not a super great team Uh, what'd you say for chub? I asked you because I'm I'm like I have my biases with nick chub factoring in the bump. I would say 82 I'd say 8,000. Okay. He is 79. So that's fair. Uh, not a write down but like, you know Not bad Another running back who's in play? Yeah, I would find ways to get to sake one instead I agree. Sake one is the better value between the two relative to salary. I'd agree with that as well Joe mixon's rule did not expand in week 15. He had a 61 snap rate after playing 59 last week The bangles pretty pass heavy in a negative script despite the At one point leading by like 17 points. They were in a negative script for a large portion of this game Which is just a hilarious game they probably Should be playing from ahead against the patriots next week But where do you need mixon's salary to be to account for the role changes had since his return? It's been tough. Um, I went from saying like look, I think some rjp Ryan earned more work For like weeks and Joe mixon was like gonna return but didn't I was like, this is what's gonna happen Mixon's gonna get scaled back. They don't need to run him into the ground. Yeah And zack taylor says no, he's are starting running back. He scored five touchdowns last time he played He's come back to a like a a part-time role I know that not every running back has a flawless role But if there's a two minute drill for the bangles, I know who's gonna be on the field And it's not Joe mixon. Correct. And unless that's fully factored in with his salary Those are like high-value snaps from the third down snaps too. Yeah, like Yeah It's tough. So I might say a salary that's too low to be realistic But I would honestly put him in like the 76 range. I said 75 in my head. I think that's fully accurate. He's 75 exactly though okay That's probably they did that last week too They bumped down his salary a lot and it got me to where I was interested as in him as a tournament pivot And I used him but I feel like they're there again, but it's it's like an appropriate bump down Not where I'm like actively seeking him out, but he's at least in play So like it's it's sharp sharp salarying. Is that a verb? But like I I wish it weren't I kind of wish they'd just keep him high so I could cross him off So the question is and I you know, do you like Joe mixon for this week? Or do you like the salary Of Joe mixon therefore you talk yourself into Joe mixon who you wouldn't play otherwise Like I basically want to play guys if their salary was like within a band like I don't care what your actual number is I want to play like this guy and Joe mixon feels like someone I would play because of the salary not because of what I'm seeing in the spreadsheets So Last week 106 yards for mixon this week 23 adjusted opportunities 11 23 yards No, sorry, my bad, um 54 yards is still bad And that wasn't like a bucks rush defense thing because vita vea was out So like he should have been more efficient on the ground. Yeah, but seven out of 19 red zone chances, which is 37 percent I'm not actively seeking him out in that range, right? So I think it's like fair Yeah, I'm not saying it's like a terrible salary. It's more But like what's then like if I if I know kenneth walker at 69 if I know sake wanted 85 I know macaffery 94 I'm ranking all of them well above him to the point where he's not even like a pivot to me Yeah, and like at this point though if his role is going to be as 65 Maybe 70 snap rate at the peak What is the true upside like it's still high because that offense is so good because he's good So it's still high So it's I'm not gonna say it's an ostentacular situation. Like there's still that chance It's a lot lower than it has been There's overlap there for sure. Um, if only we could stack the patriots I'd get there more, but I ain't gonna do that Yeah, let's talk about that game. Uh, not the the play at the end We'll talk about the Raiders uh, darin waller and hunter red throw coming back here for the Raiders First time since week five to have both those guys Devonta Adams led with nine targets, which is a 28 share mac collins had a touchdown I believe you in a touchdown. He had eight targets, uh, 20.3 yard eight off for 162 air yards because mac Collins good at football I like that. That's fun. Darin waller just three targets But he did a touchdown uh ran around on 66 of the drop backs for the team's routes. Um Foster maro played a lot early in that game I think waller kind of ramped up as things went along I could check that because that was just kind of based on watching But hunter renfro 59 route rates. He had one or three targets that he caught So can we still use hollands or do you anticipate an uptick for waller and renfro? To make this team kind of just muddy behind, uh, devontae and josh jacob's I just hate this team like Like devontae's workloads Almost always going to be good It was not as good as I thought it would be because I I did a trend on this team And devontae had a sort of down week the week before I know it was uh, he was going to be the the focal point of what the page would try to stop You still want to see him getting force fed targets? Um, but i'm fine if it's going to be mac hollands Doing things mac hollands is fun. Uh, he's good. Did he get it? I forgot to look for any Rushing attempts because he's been getting some of them or on the thursday night game He did not have any in week 15 Which is Sad For me, um But like even with all those air yards just the 40 receiving yards. I just like I I'm sorry Derek Carter doesn't really strike a whole lot of fear into me And if he's gonna spread the if he has more people to spread the ball to they're running a lot too Yeah, so it's like it's annoying. Um Not super into that. Uh, I also want to get your read on josh jacob's because It could be just noise But if we look at the games he's played with hunter renfro, uh, josh jacob's target that share this year is 9.1 percent You have three targets on sunday 3 to 32 9.4 percent if you exclude weeks one and two before jacob's role expanded It's uh 12 target share whereas the target share is 15.3 percent without renfro Is that noise? Or is it they operate in kind of the same part of the field so it actually might be a downgrade for jacob's Probably as a downgrade uh for for jacob's renfro. What's his a dot here? six points That's a tough scene um, yeah, I think I think it would make sense that it uh That he's at least even if he's not getting the the targets. He's operating in in similar Areas of the field and that's gonna bump down jacob. So yeah, I would I would probably say this is a downgrade also. I mean You kind of got a factor in some of the subjectivity to all this too because jacob's has been banged up all season for agent after this year Like they might want to get a look at ximera wide at some point or at least something Yeah, so I am lower on on jacob's again, though. I'm kind of thankful. This team's not despite all my like Not really interested. I'm kind of glad they're not on the main slate Yeah, because it's hard to prioritize divante given the game environments. They typically have And he can burn me. So like I just don't want him on the slate So that helps I'm glad they're on saturday night Remondry stevenson snap rate did scale back a bit after his week 14 injury, but still he played great He had a 68 percent snap rates That's his lowest since week seven in games that he's finished But 19 carries three targets a buck 68 and a touchdown Uh, stevenson had five carries of 10 plus yards. He averaged 9.1 yards per carry We will not discuss what happens at the end of some of those runs. Um But where are you with stevenson? Um Especially if we assume that damien harris is back next week which I think he will be Yeah, there's that there's the fact that uh, he's Taken the blame for that play He's like he I feel bad for him and jacobi mires because like they both took blame for it and it's like I want to get my jokes off. I'm not getting my jokes off at the expense of you because I like both of them So I want to make it clear as I know they're avid listeners. Yeah, uh, remondry jacobi This is not at you is directed at your coaching staff. Uh, not bill bella check either. I you know Not throwing shade at him. I'm throwing shade at their pieces there Um, this is not directed to you guys. You're great. Keep being great. Keep doing your thing But oh bad. I like how you're naming all these names of people you're not throwing shade at to whittle down the list Exactly. This is you could It's like I don't know if you Do you watch you? Have you seen the office? What? I don't know. We talked to you have the office Not really. I see these screenshots. I mean like what re watching it at one point. Come on. I don't remember that well, you all but there's a Early on, uh, Michael Scott has to fire someone he fires Devin and he he goes through and invites people out for drinks and names like 12 of the 13 names of who's invited to go out. So instead of just saying like, you know, Michael You can't call me just names everyone else and I felt a little bit like what you were doing there Yeah, uh, but yeah, I think that I would be low on Stevenson for a few reasons I think the salary also has just been elevated to the point that I don't expect it to come back down Yeah, anticipatorily If that's a word, uh So I think he's probably going to be too high of a salary for what I want. Um, give me a salary for Remontre next week against the Bengals if we assume Harris is back, right like 77 Like if there's no Harris, he'd be like 85, but I think It's an actual downgrade. I would say like 76 personally. Yeah, uh, his salary is 83 So you were right and I think that's just too high Yeah Take a step back Say quan versus remontre. I'm not saying that there's always ways to get an extra 200 in your in your lineups, but I'd rather work it completely punt with defense To get would you rather use remontre at 83 or joe mixon at 75 in that same game? Mixon I agree How much would you pay to watch a You're a wrestling guy a steel cage match between mac jones mad patricia I think they kill each other. I don't think they could sell. Well, mac jones was pretty animated. So maybe he'd be a good seller, but Also, we're talking like pro I think he fights with a lot of chaos Um, like there are limbs flying despite their the fact they're doing nothing Like I think that that's that's what he would do Are we talking like mna or like pro wrestling? Both all the above. I don't it'd be better because I don't I don't think that they else think mac jones wants this to happen Hey mac, we're gonna let you fight when your coach is How quickly are you in? He was fired up in What I think we're all the wrong ways if I were his teammate Oh my gosh. Yeah, like can you imagine the think pieces we'd read if that were not mac jones? Like if justin fields were yelling at his coach that way like a mac everything pieces we'd read newton or anyone like almost anyone I just Cam Newton always got the worst of all of that. Yeah Like it's it's so funny to me as like It's so funny. Um, I want him to keep doing it, but it is awful behavior Yeah, it's objectively hilarious Uh, also objectively hilarious is kj osborne going nuts. Um 16 targets of the vikings. What? So they threw a ton because again, they were down 33 nothing at halftime But that's still a 29.6 target share One of those was deep three were in the red zone It was the second time osborne has had more than five targets since the tj hawkinson trade He did 11 and one but like, you know, just two times above five so osborne Has some legit talent. Um, but this is a big deviation From the role he has had this year. So are you buying to this being a legit roll shift for kj osborne? I would like to so that I have multiple pieces Uh and someone other than justin jefferson to target in this passing offense because jefferson's always hard to prioritize by himself. Yeah, well, although i've done it Yeah, and I like doing it recently. I have recently. Yeah, it's a great but There's like good peripheral numbers there for downfield targets for him three in the red zone two in the end zone from this week um I I like it adam felon was apparently on the sideline not very happy with like his role in this game, but I don't know if that's gonna be enough to Have them go away from kj osborne who did what he did on his targets Yeah to instead throw to adam felon whose Maybe not the juiciest guy Uh, so I think that this is fairly legit. My only fear is Doesn't her off. There he goes way too high So they're facing the giants next week targetable matchup It is indoors so no weather concerns unless we can other I guess the dome can't collapse this time because it's glass that'd be worse. Um but Name me a sour and osborne One that's realistic for how good that role was but also the fact that This is not like for certain. I'd say six thousand I think six thousand is fair. It's 61. Okay Like he'd be an option. I think Yeah in game stacks He's not somebody you target outside of game stacks, correct like as I bring back for for sake one basically Yeah, no, I'm with you. I'm saying. Yeah. No, I agree Okay, because it's just one of those like the upside could be worth it If you stack that game and hope that the role sticks But it's not so good that you play him as a one-off assuming the role sticks because that's not necessarily something that we can say with absolute certainty so he's had more than 40 yards twice this year and the other instance was not the game where he got 11 targets He had 35 yards in that game at eight for 73 against the lions. Um If he gets popular that's an avoid Like chris mooresk, I think even in stacks Yeah, potentially I'd be higher on osborn than more if we're going like this week because I believe more in this offense Yeah, that's fair. Uh, Hawkinson six thousand I think I'd rather like find the way to make him work versus going to osborn at that point If osborn gets popular, which I think he probably will give him a point chasing Hawkinson He's pretty dusty I mean, so he had a lot of leverage on his target He so he caught three of nine targets for 33 yards, but a 101 air yards on them Four downfield targets eight out of 11.2. It's it's it regression Sure Regressions all we need Uh, Latavius Murray took on a bigger role this week with no rust and no mike boon 64 snap rate for Murray, uh, 24 carries in a target into 142 yards Wilson should be back for christmas as he did clear concussion protocol What's your interest level and take shish? Stop making that face. Okay The reason I poo pooed you bring up Latavius is because mike boon is coming back. Mike boon is better at football than marlin mac and divino zigbo I'm not saying when I use him I'm saying I can at least talk about it because he actually did something with it this time go ahead Sure, I got nothing to say man. I'm just letting you let you cook on this one. I'm not gonna cook Look at a certain point workload can matter and While Latavius Murray may not be as good as he used to be and his offense is not great I think You were just a bit too low on him. No Maybe entering this week after Mike boon is not available. Maybe but before that no, I'm I think that's right. I've never been wrong in my life I just I'm gonna have to play this one back because I didn't say anything if you just went I could see your face I know but You you literally yelled at me. You skipped over Latavius Murray blurbs Then had the audacity to talk to me about camp acres five minutes later That's fair No Murray was in role changes and acres was in situations to monitor those are two very different sections They are to be fair But I would told you zero ETNs on camp acres. So like Yeah, how many ETNs on Murray? now, yeah Keep in mind 10 ETNs is not fully Travis ETN It's five was like where he was early in the season whenever we were super Monitoring in situation before he broke out. Yeah, I would say Latavius is at three ETNs out of 10 I'd get three and a half Okay, fair enough Johan Dotson snaps were up before the bye week, which was fun And then he played really well sunday night. He tied for the team high with six targets He caught both those a couple of his deep targets finished 105 yards Terry McClourn had six targets for 70 yards They're playing san francisco next week, which means they're on the road Probably going to be trailing in that game Does this put Dotson in play for you or does it just hurt the appeal of Terry McClourn? I think it hurts Terry, especially if Dotson's going to get downfield work So over the the pre buy game and in this game. He's averaging three and a half downfield targets Um, McCormons at three. He's running more routes though than Curtis Samuel I think it hurt. I don't know if there's enough I'm gonna say juice again In this offense to want to get there The question though is you said they're playing the 49ers Do you like any of these guys enough to bring back your McCaffrey stacks? If so, who do you prefer or does it depend on salary depends on salary? If I assume Dotson is still pretty low my interest level would be pretty high I mean they did play sunday night. So right that's kind of why I assume it might be low If Dotson comes in at 55, I'll be very interested. Well, Dotson came in at 57 I'm still interested not I will drop the very which is a bad word anyway. So let's find a drop it I am interested in Dotson at 57 Terry 7,000 Curtis Samuel 50 deeper for Curtis Samuel 56 or Dotson at 57 Dotson, baby. Well, keep in mind That Curtis Samuel has to keep alive the spirit of Debo Samuel in that match up and get like seven wide receiver carries Do I think about that? Dotson I just like that Dotson for me as well. We hadn't had yardage upside before but he was getting deep targets, which meant that like Sorry, I use this phrase to justify Michael galf this week. So if it like triggers something in your brain You're like, ah Jim stop. I apologize But he has the building blocks for upside and he finally showed those on sunday with the 105 yards. He caught the downfield targets I don't think Heineke's good enough for us to bank on the downfield targets converting going forward And they might get shut out in this game, honestly, but like I think that 57 is low enough for me to have interest in him any interest in a running back With a 62 snap rate 69. I'm not using it when you're Gibson. Okay How how low would a seller have to be? 3,000 That's 58 No Yeah, I'm not against that defense. There's not a lot upside there But Dotson's low enough Dotson low enough for you to have interest or no Yeah, okay. He's good. Okay. Uh speaking of 49ers people Let's talk with Jeff Wilson where he most hurt who are not in the 49ers But uh, we're he most her big role with no Jeff Wilson 77 snap rate 17 carries and two targets 156 yards Wilson did get in a limited session on thursday. He was questionable Didn't wind up playing But it also means he may not get a full workload this week I think we'll get Wilson back this week, but hypothetically, how would you view most of it if we don't? He looks good Yeah, he did. Um, I think he's a good running back. We know that he's fast, but looked good Kind of glad that I don't have to play this guessing game Also kind of glad in a way that I don't have the receivers to try to justify Because as much I like to play them Kind of cool with fewer High salary receivers on a main slate that can torch me by not using them. Yep. Um most dirt without wilson I'd probably say like 71 I'd say 77. I know you'd be higher than that. Um I just there's still a fear that he could get phased out a little bit But they're facing the packers who get shredded on the ground. I think the mayaniel probably will be willing to do that Yeah But I think we're gonna get wilson back and then at that rate, what would you put the salaries out? Uh, probably 67 for most dirt and 63 for wilson Yeah, no arguments there. Okay Uh chuba hubbard's role spiked at the expense of diante foreman this week Hubbard played 63 of the snaps foreman played 30 The snaps didn't lead to a lot of work for hubbard. He had just four carries for 10 yards three targets 57 but Bad outcome for foreman. I think this was kind of In play given that foreman had like a 40 snap rate last week in a positive script But he still had 21 carries in that game. So I still used him at times this week Can we just cross them all fully now? yeah yeah, and uh Look, we play or we play running backs at flex almost always on this show We've been talking in recent weeks where I'm more open to receiver in the flex despite that in our head to head lineup I forced in a third running back with foreman despite liking zay jones more And that will haunt me Uh forever, especially if I have to buy you a hat and then look at it I'll never forget this week. You make you buy me a zay jones hat. Does he have like merch? Is he big enough to have merch? Zayday with it with another big game. I think yeah, we'll get there. All right zay jones if you have merch, let me know Amen With no demian pierce the texans backfield was a mess Nobody played more than half the snaps or top 56 yards. Royce freeman did lead in rushing 10s at 11 He led in snap rate at 47 percent. No receiving work on five routes We can continue to avoid this back. You'll correct skip them. All righty. Let's go to situations to monitor What else did you note from this past week? well, kenneth walker Didn't have a roll change because the roll was so good Just didn't have the ton of production 75 percent of the snaps 12 carries five targets 79 yards. We already know what the salary is Love it gonna have a ton of kenneth walker this week a de under swift had nine targets and led the lions backfield and snap rate That's awesome. That snap rate though is 38 percent. So still Nothing there. Also, we need to stop complaining about jesson jackson on twitter complained about jamal williams because jesson jackson is better than jamal williams Uh, michael pittman At the at the 68 minute mark of the podcast so no one's listening anymore Yeah, my jesson jackson takes off michael pittman since matt ryan regained the starting quarterback position at 29 target share nine targets per game 453 yards Got one touchdown on 45 targets in that span It was that yardage number What's that was that yardage number 53 yards per game If 53 isn't 153 or 53 Five three two digits. Oh, okay. Yeah, it's tough. It's it's it's it's not a not tough scene. I'll say that much fun team Uh chris moore once again volume nine targets just 42 yards though Probably gonna see volume because who else do they have but Don't really want it. You know, I was worried about chasing last week's performance this is just This whole offense is awful and taste some hill seven carries 30 yards 80 passing yards with the touchdown But on just two two attempts. Um, you can still have a big game, obviously, but Super low floor anytime we get taste some hill doing stuff though. It's worth noting But I wouldn't say it's like a full roll change so He's playing in that snow the blizzard game in cleveland shouldn't they just use taste my quarterback that entire game I think they should use taste my quarterback the entire game in domes in snow in if it's raining Um, if the you know the air quality is Yeah, you know problematic Just whatever, you know, he's 65 at tight end He's just always going to be there to like to protect in case he gets named like starting quarterback So he just can't quite get there They should use in a quarterback this week though Also, uh, shout out to to our guy alvin chimera 104 scrimmage yards, but um Just nine routes He lost a lot of work to david johnson in the year of our lord 2022. I had to check to make sure it's till 2022 and it is Um, shout out to my dynasty team again, david johnson Yikes, uh, jk dobbins topped 120 yards for the second straight game But it was on a 39 snap rate as they fell down in that game They should get lamar back and dobbins is playing well So i'm receptive to him, but we need to keep in mind that he's not going to get passing game work He is reliant on efficiency alone and absolutely nothing else baltimore gets uh, atlanta next week Name me a salary on jk dobbins We already looked it up We don't really do a name of salary because it's supposed to be like the quick hitter section So I already saw it. So give give me a salary 68 he's seven thousand That's fair It sure is but in no world on my plan jk dobbins my hope is that it keeps people away from kenneth walker I'm fine with that. I would hope that um, I prefer I don't think dobbins is out of play at that salary But i'm no he would be much much much much much much much much much much much much much much much prefer walker sure, um We'll learn more about the running back landscape right there But if not for walker, I would probably say like dobbins might be A strong consideration and if you need to use two lower salary backs to get to mccafrey I think he's in play for that potentially at least Even with coal beasley making his debut gape David still played nearly every snap of the bills here in six targets, which is about in line with his usual mark I thought this might be at risk with beasley being there John brown being added isaac mckenzie still played more than half the snaps. So I would say keeps that as quote for now But keep monitoring the receiver snaps and routes for the bills for shichi heat scored a long touchdown for the saints He had just four targets, but they also threw just 18 times uh, juan johnson six targets or six seven yards and two touchdowns chrysal lave just four targets I used sprinkles of shiheed on sunday and I don't regret it despite just the four targets But I think the bigger takeaway may be that olave's role is just not as good as it was earlier on this year Uh, avoid shiheed this week in the snow in cleveland, but be back on him potentially Once they're back in the dome because he is really really fun as a football player. Um, but we're not to get a lot but Where he's fun, too Let's go into the philosophical changes talk about the jets in the first game with zack wilson being back He had a really bad pick. He had a low completion percentage and some other weird balls But I thought it was still like somewhat encouraging because he was chucking it And if you're going to be bad at least degaff it and he did that Point two one passing that expected points per drop back. So decent number His completion percentage over expectation was right at zero because again chucking it 14 yard eight odd Garrett wilson the lodge of more bull set new season highs and a zack wilson start for targets Uh, Garrett had nine more had seven wilson's Garrett wilson 60 targets tied a season high regardless who was starting The jets early down first had pass rate with 64 percent now all those came before The really bad pick they seem to be a bit more conservative after that. So They weren't covering up wilson as much as they were I think it's a nice bump for more and wilson going into the thursday night game against the jags Where are you on them entering that game? Uh higher than I would have been before this performance Garrett wilson 18.4 yard eight eight downfield targets, which again for me are at least 10 yards downfield um It's still a good role. Uh, you were just talking about chris elave and I see these these guys going You know elave's training down. Yeah wilson staying pretty steady as to where he was um more he's fine Uh I don't know as quarry davis going to be back by thursday Um, he didn't practice at all this week. I don't think so it might be a tight turnaround for him to clear protocol So like without you know without davis. I think more is viable um, my my fear though is Well, I guess if this game were on the main slate, I'd still get some exposure to those guys because I like jacksonville so much. Yeah, so there's that I think it's better than it was with wilson previously and I think that's encouraging. Um, It was not good previously. So better than not good. It may not still be great, but better than it was. Um I know the pick was bad, but like there were still some fun plays in that game and that's where something Desmond ridder finishes debut negative point four three passing uh, ep or epa per drop back according to next-gen stats Uh, the team had a 54 percent early down first half pass rate, which is pretty high for them. Um Reuters adot was 8.9. His cpoe was negative 11.5 percent But he did funnel targets to drake london Uh, london had double digit targets and 70 yards. One of those was a deep targets So We talked about the backfield before But is there enough here for you to target drake london? rank drake london michael pitman And chris moore. I'm sure there are more guys who fit the archetype but like wide receiver ones pretty unquestioned on In bad offenses more is last. Yeah Probably pitman over Over london, but they're never at the same salary. So it's hard for me to like because I don't think I've used michael pitman this year um Even though he's been burning us week after week What are you burning us? Jim, um, it's it's called a joke. Oh Sorry, um I would probably go pitman by a hair, but I don't like him relative to salary ever Yeah, I was just I was just thinking about it because they're all kind of like similar Builds. Yeah, but yeah, I think london's viable in the right spots So if I want to get to the other side um I guess like Stacking dobbins in london could be like a an affordable mini stack. Yeah, give me a salary for london Uh So he was 63 and I had a couple shares in shaheed stacks slash chimera stacks So I would say probably 63 again 64 I think I would have said 64 just to see it with ridder helps me but sure I guess a london dobbins stack put both of them at what 67 Yeah It's 54 or sorry 54. Wow 15 mile per hour wins for that game on saturday But likely lamar back which helps to think both sides for that game, but London I think it's averaging like seven and a half or eight targets per game now and games without pits. So that's getting better Um, so that's that's encouraging. I think uh, what other notes did you have from this week in terms of philosophical stuff? Um, just a few pass rate over expectation notes. Um, the brown said their highest pass rate over expectation in the season But it was only 2.7 points Um, so they might not be as run heavy as they have been I think in a way though at a certain point that can help a running back because you're not as one dimensional If you're often if you're passing. I mean the passing offense isn't great, but like That's the highest of the year Yeah, that's nuts but even if you're Like a low level passing efficiency team That's still about as efficient as like a good rushing offense So like i'm kind of okay with it. I think that actually helps me a little bit with chubb to hope to think that they can move the ball um down the field a little bit quicker obviously nick chubb can just He he basically gains every rushing yard over expectation that there is in the nfl available he's like over in Like vegas getting those yards over expectation up in seattle, but So I think that that actually makes me a little bit higher on chub Other bears pass rate over expectation in two games since justin fields. Uh, his injury is a minus 6.0 Which is obviously low, but before that it was a minus 16.2 so not as rush heavy despite the fact that his uh His personal rushing numbers were good. So just a weird Weird situation for him because the building blocks are there It's going to be it's going to be a long conversation about justin fields for next week And then just some rushing outliers from this week pittsburgh a minus 14.5 Which is down 12.7 points from their season average The true outliers this week baltimore new england washington in new orleans dropped their pass rate over expectation by at least six points From their full season numbers, which I think all kind of make sense all playing with backup level quarterbacks yeah And then two that I've been noting for a bit now But kansas city was a zero this week, which is down from 10.5 for the season Buffalo a minus 0.2, which is down 6.7 points from their season average for both teams. They're been playing close to the league average lately It's just something to keep in mind with both of those squads. I feel like they're kind of like Kansas city has been weird where they're like kind of like it's sort of that random game, but they're kind of like just Fingering around a little bit. It seems like It feels like they Are at least able to try some stuff and see what's working. Yeah, so I mean, it keeps the games closer. So I don't not gonna complain. I'm not even bet their spreads I don't like care that they're doing it, but like it's kind of weird that they're doing it It's fine. I mean even with that my home is 32.7 I fandal points. I will say though. I'm just gonna say this because we're what 80 minutes into the show Yeah, do it fire. I don't I don't know what marquez vades. Sorry marquez vades scantling does that chris connelly couldn't be doing And I think this is the point where we get all of our player level takes off. Okay, good And I think the chief's locker room loves chris connelly. So I'm just saying I I think they just gave him a contract and they're like what we gotta I I gotta apologize though. We need to sacrifice chris connelly to get the jags in the playoffs because He's in the titans and I I want to watch trevor lorence in the playoffs and not the titans I'm sorry. I need to sacrifice your boy He's they should have kept him on the jaguars though. They should have kept him on the chiefs too Yeah, he got cut from everywhere weird. He's great. I agree chris connelly is awesome. So I do wish Marquez marquez vades scantling is doing nothing that chris connelly couldn't be doing That sky more couldn't be doing Anyone well now. Sorry fair enough. Okay. Let's dig into the week 16 salaries over on fandall. This is for the saturday main slate I don't think the sunday one is posted yet for the three games late So we'll go through just saturday for right now opening up the portal going to quarterback What do you see that stands out to you there? Oh, sorry, I was just double checking, you know, no sunday slate yet that I see a quarterback. Oh my good We get josh allen at 95 and mahomes at 92 So why are they there and hurts 87 hurts if they're gonna shove guys in the 9000 range shouldn't jayland hurts be that guy match up, I guess I don't care Alan gets the bear like without weather, but allen gets the bears Mahomes gets Seattle Hertz gets the cowboys So I think jayland hurts has proved it enough where he should be in the He has three straight games with 30 plus fandall points. He had 29.8 the game before that He has two games below 20 fandall points this year. One of them was against the cowboys With 16.9 and the other one of course Against our jaguars. Oh, yeah, naturally Uh other but he gets dallas udderback goddard practices this whole week, which means he'll be healthier I kind of think they were saving it for this game. I think they overlooked the bears It's possible. We're going to hold off on you dallas. Uh, so you get the dallas dallas narrative. Um Also, what's miles sanders salary 71? I think this might be a good week to get to miles sanders I have not used him hardly at all this year except for like single game stuff Um, I think they might have held them in I know he was arguing with nixiriani at one point in the sidelines but I think they might have held goddard out and Kept sanders snap rate and check looking forward to this game. That could be like tinfoil hat stuff But I think it might be correct. Well, keep in mind miles sanders tweeted that he uh, Doesn't care about fantasy. So yeah in these words like vigilante touchdowns So same Okay, uh, what else to see a quarterback? It's pretty loaded. It's a top Um, we have joe burrow against new england field to 78 Dak remains low at you glossed over lamar at 8 000 That's just because he had the the the red tag. I just will play this week. I think sounds like my brain just I think he'll play. Um 8 000 is interesting. I don't know if I'll get there because of the winds but I mean he had those two 40 point games and like any it's not just about like box score watching But he's just not throwing touchdowns even when he's like been healthier Yeah, his receivers stink too and like I think at a certain point. Yeah mark angers is 100 percent I'm not saying like he could come out and put put up 40 But I think that goes from I won't throw percentages out But that's a cut in half for me with what is Helen is around him Uh question for you. Uh, what's dax ceiling? He's 75 in a game that we're gonna love obviously I think like best best outcome for him is like 293 and like maybe a rushing touchdown like 25 27 fangirl points. I would say like I'd be What point would you just be surprised like what? What like fantasy point number would you go like where you're surprised and I'd say like if he got If you got 28, yeah Wouldn't be surprised if you got 29 If he drops a 30 burger, I'd I'd be a little surprised and like that stinks. I like to act a lot. I want to use him, but I question the ceiling. They just don't have to throw Like he doesn't have to throw for 300 yards Yeah, and this team of all the stud because I'd say dax like a stud in terms of talent Um, they're passed great over expectation in recent games minus 8.8 minus 6.2 minus 10.6 minus 12.8 It's just that it's sort of the offense. That's not really him. I don't think right I mean they're they're content to run which they should be because they're very good at it. So I get it. Um And and just before we move past that There are tons of high upside quarterbacks this week. I think daff made some sense this week It's going to be harder to play dax This week in forego the the true upside. I agree I'm not going to use this person's this is a fruitless comment But why is jared goff 7 000 shouldn't he be like 74? Uh road game coming off of a 14 point game 14 point game, but he had the second highest per dropout efficiency against the jets this year and carolina is not the jets I'm just I'm just explaining my situation here. I do. I do like that I do like that brock purdy's salary is higher than dish on watson's though. I do too Yeah tana hill, I made me think of brock purdy's nickname and made me laugh Got it pretty happy. Uh, you can search it on twitter You remember bdn Yeah, think about a variation that the rhymes with brock okay, um We're we're a family show the jared goff salary is making me search up something and dj shark is back down to 57 I'm back in I'm back in baby You knew that this week wasn't they sacrificed him to soft god. They're like here you go You can have all the dj shark you want dj or cash or check. We'll see you next week 5700 dollars for dj shark next week coming off a down game. No one's gonna use him dj shark I I know you're gonna say no But I at least feel like I should address You should ride tana hill against the texans. What no, he's hurt That's the main appeal of him is that he can like run sometimes, but he's hurt Okay, I just wanted to check how dare you um Line or dj shark was lined up against Uh sauce gardener for 44 percent of his plays against dj raid is also pretty good for 38 percent. So like they just said, hey Cash or check we'll see you next week Shark at 57 shark week is back. Um, I'm in baby. I'm in Oh, no, that means we're gonna get derek henry against the texans. Oh, that's boring Oh Okay, I'm moving to running back. Uh, henry is 98 So we're gonna prefer macafe at 94 over henry at 98. I can say that pretty definitively, correct Yeah, what about dalvin 87 versus henry at 98? What do you think about that? I think I go henry there I'd love to say that but 98 is I mean i'm not saying 94 is not tough, but 98 is tough Yeah Like texans the texans if we won out the texans have played a lot better recently That's true. Um, I will say he has the 32 carries 2 19 Two touchdowns. That was a moik willis game. I Sorry, I knew that cut you off. Sorry. I knew that my bad. My bad. Sorry. Because I don't remember stuff like that But I remembered that one. Okay, because I just looked it up My bad, but okay. He's gonna be what else stands out at running back to you Um We talked about a lot of the top guys already I'm not playing out on chimera. I don't care how much you pay. He could be 54. I'm not playing him I'd pay him. I'd play him at 64. He's 74, but I'd play him at 64. Yeah, I would too We can joke but we'd be dramatic. Yeah Uh, jereck, I think is over salaried So where are you with mild sanders then at 71 like is he a borderline write down? Where does he kind of No, so like right kenneth walker jk dobbins mild sanders So I don't think he's in the same discussion as them Maybe as dobbins as dobbins. He is But I think the way I view him is similar to the way I viewed like this didn't work out But the way you'd mix in this week where The salary is not great, but he still has the ability to get you 30 And people probably won't use him although they might I'm hoping the clunker this past week from mild sanders throws people off where he just doesn't get rostered 1.4 fan dual points. Um He had a fumble he had a negative 13 yard reception so I hope that leads to his not being rostered because he'd be a really fun way to get exposure to that game we talked about this last week where it seemed like they use mild sanders more in that that game because it was a big game that giants game and Maybe they kind of use that as like their tell of like oh we use miles more in important games And this is the most important game they played all year Good jaren usage by the way What did I say? He's not being used. Oh, I didn't notice it. Okay, but what do you think am I off on that? It started came down a lot 700 dollars just games. That's only I'm not going there outside of a game stack right but like Do you think that he is viable as a tournament pivot if he winds up going over overlooked? No games. That's only Okay, if I don't have if I don't have other assets in that game I don't I'm not going to assume that he's going to have a big game by himself Okay, what else to see running back besides dobbins at seven thousand and walker at 69 Which we've already at least for a walker gushed over not a whole lot other than isiah pacheco being Interesting at 67. I think the bottom falls out after that though Yeah, pacheco's yardage has still been very good consistently good Which means that He probably has the upside to do more especially against a bad rush defense now It is concerning that the loss worked this week after the thumble But I think if he won early down guy in a potentially positive script He would be the guy who would benefit there still despite that and just because we didn't talk about it unless maybe you did Devin single terry 62 snap rate james cooked down to 34 percent So that's like kind of that update with with that backfield, but I'm not there Uh, justin jackson's 52 if you want the lion's best back. Uh wide receiver what you got there? Uh Some big names nobody jumping out right now as a Oh some big names and then it falls off pretty quick salary wise Uh, yeah, because you have uh divante smith and teahagans 76 and 77 and then it falls to juju at 73 So the 7000 range is like just there's not that there's like not good plays. There's aren't many people in that range Just six or five names because debo's out. Oh, yeah um Looking into the 6000 range friends And I'm feeling 66 seems weird way too high Uh Maybe it's a good thing though But there's not a whole lot in the mid-range because I'm gonna need to spend some salary on quarterback and running back this week right Any interest in derrius slayton at 63 or no? Because I don't think I want to get there, but No Um Jukobi mires at 62 or no Potentially, but probably not Yeah Marquis good good one 58. Once again, I think that's okay. Johan dots and 57. That's okay Redacted is 57 Gallop Uh dj chart 57 though is the best Yeah, I think it's gonna I think I'm gonna live in like the dots and gallop chart. Yeah Range All right, I'm gonna pull up the charlotte weather for for saturday. Please pray for me. Um briefly um, okay at One p.m. Eastern 10 miles per hour compared to the rest of the slate. That's fine. I can deal with it Chark week back. Chark week back. Chark week back And if he goes for a hundo again, I'm buying a dj chart jersey Um, not a team that I looked into because I just didn't care Um, what are your thoughts on any baltimore passcatchers assuming limar's back? Nope Not even like because duverny was I consider andrews, but Duverny was it two-thirds of the routes? Nope At 54 this week against the like the problem is I like like demarcus roberton's cool. Devon duverny is cool Like I like these guys. I just like the I don't know what the upside is of them Given the way they like how many targets anders gets stuff like that They might scale back limar in his first game back. So I think they're like fine I just don't want to really want to use an dfs. Yeah, uh christ calling revenge game now 52 Against who they're like 16s this year. He's played. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Let's just respect man Who is it? I actually don't know who he's playing Houston we already talked about his quarterback in running or yeah running back. He played for the jags He's playing for the the chiefs. He's played for the titans Then everywhere man So realistically Chark this might be a week where I play three three value receivers to get to the running backs. I want It's a little bit scary Yeah, I mean like it's it's in play. I'll have at least one of those guys pro lana most likely who's your favorite between Who is your favorite between uh, charq Gallup dotson and goodwin Uh pride charq. I agree Um, it's going down to low 5000s quick just to see if there's anything that stands out down there before we close up there Nothing Quez walkins is 51 Now I've got her back I guess but What? I'll pass. It's downfield work, man. I care about Downfield work, baby. Okay tight end. Kelsey's 86. Oh my gosh. Mark Andrews is 64 That's nice. Yeah. So if we get if if we get them are back and Andrews is 64 He's gonna be the uber chalk Yep, I do I will say before we move past Kelsey at 86 There's only so much he can do right to burn us Like you kind of need like a 30 burger to burn us and he's had Two this year. Well, that's more than I thought Um, but he's top 20 points one two only three times but like 86 of your salary cap leaves only so much room for Projectable right findable upside before that but like before games. Yep. I agree Andrews and Goddard at 64 and 62 respectively I think both are going to be and honestly Schultz at 61 as well. I think those are all three Hawkinson 6000. Oh man, the 6000 range is never good at tight end, but it's weird How dare you put T.J. Hawkinson in that same conversation? Fair enough. Sorry But that's a I hate that range always, but that's actually a really good range this week Yeah, and there's no a fan to 53. I do like to Do Well, you've given you've given some some respect to to know a fan Latavius Murray No, a fan like there's no tally locket. So like of course I am Yeah, but I'm just saying it's uh He's pulled away from will disley. Who knows there's someone else that you've always hated I've never hated anyone branded I'll love I'll see if I can remember it, but I've never had anyone Yeah, so we got some cold come at still looks like max first happens I still want to punch him, but like 51 is if it weren't for the wind in that game uh Chugga conqua still relevant for me against houston 54 is not bad. Although what if berks is back? I guess I don't know if he'd be back this week, but he's in a berks at 62 so Um, yeah, I would say that bant is the primary value guy there Yeah, I would want to go below phant or maybe maybe commit if the weather's not super terrible But after that you're assuming that none of kelsey kiddle andrew's goddard Schultz hawkinson have like they're guys of the upside in that 6000 range. Yeah, for sure. Okay Uh notes to future me. I think for me this all comes down to Find ways to get the the upside running backs in there because we actually have running backs with upside this week And I want to get them in my lineups. Uh, what is the note to future you? I think the alternate way to view that is Study up the quarterbacks and see if there are guys who actually have the 30 point upside that you think is going to hit Yeah, where you don't have to you know spend 87 plus to get there If you cannot project that with some confidence at all Where are the odds that those guys at the higher salaries get there? So I think it's kind of a Maybe not as easy of a week where you just Click in a stud quarterback because we have a lot of stud running backs who seem like they're primed for big games Yeah, it's uh an interesting slate for sure I'm excited to break it down in full with you on wednesday again We'll be here wednesday at noon eastern on the fandal youtube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So go search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts or the fandal youtube page This is our final recap show of the year because we're going into the holidays now So do you want to thank you all for tuning in for these shows every monday throughout the season? We do appreciate you as always branded if people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? They can't but if they do um at feudal 13 gdu la 13 Well, youtube banners are mentioning where to find us on another social platform. Is that how uh, this will work? Who could say who can say? As long as my twitter exists. I'm on twitter at jimsonis j i m S a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast Good luck to you all on the monday night a single game slate We'll talk to you once again wednesday to preview the week 16 main slate This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire