 Boris Johnson is a serial liar, he is a philanderer, he is an utter incompetent and he's our new prime minister. His estranged relationship to competence, honesty or basic human decency hasn't been any barrier to achieving success. Being sacked from the times for making up a quote didn't stop Boris Johnson from landing a column at the telegraph worth £275,000. The leak of a phone conversation in which Boris Johnson passes on the address of a journalist so his old mate Darius Guppy could haven't beaten up didn't stop him from being deemed fit for public office. Having a history of publishing racist on homophobic screeds in the spectator didn't stop him becoming mayor of diverse and progressive London. And indeed writing an article backing Remain just two days before coming out for leave didn't stop him from being hailed as a true Brexiteer by ERG headbangers. And his woeful record as foreign secretary including making comments which endangered a British citizen who is still incarcerated in an Iranian prison hasn't stopped him from attaining the highest elected office in the land without actually having to face a general election. Boris Johnson's career has had the quality of a particularly gnarly strain of cystitis. There is no blunder so catastrophic nor a resignation so decisive as to permanently prevent his return to the forefront of national politics in an ever nastier form. So you can see why he makes such an attractive candidate for the Conservative Party the man looks unstoppable or untreatable. But from where I'm sitting Boris Johnson doesn't actually look all that invincible. In reality he faces many of the same problems which managed to end Theresa May's premiership plus a few more. So as some of you may remember back in 2017 Theresa May lost the Conservative Party's majority in Parliament which meant that the Conservative Party had 310 seats backed up by 10 DEP MPs in a confidence and supply arrangement. So that meant that Theresa May had to rely on 320 MPs versus 317 MPs which is the sum total of Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, the Tinge Appendent Group for Change or whatever it is they're called now, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. Did I already say the SNP? The SNP. Okay so pay attention. The two numbers that you need to remember are 320 and 317. The two spanners in the works for the Conservative Party are the fact that there is a by-election being held in Brecon and Radnyshire because the Tory MP was convicted of expenses fraud and the fact that Charlie Elfwick, a Conservative MP who's just been charged with three counts of sexual assault has had to have the whip suspended. So if the Lib Dems win in this by-election next week which the polls predict they are likely to do, you've got the opposition number of MPs going up to 318. And if Charlie Elfwick is forced to step down from Parliament and there's a by-election in Dover which Labour then win, it was a Labour held seat before, that means that the total tally of opposition MPs goes up to 319. So Boris Johnson in his first few months as Prime Minister could have a working majority of just one. And this problem of a wafer-thin majority in Parliament inevitably has consequences for Brexit. It makes the pathway for a negotiated deal that bit more difficult for Boris Johnson and also makes the pathway towards a no-deal exit that bit more difficult as well. The reason why a no-deal will still be difficult even though it's the legislative default is that Boris Johnson will find it very tricky indeed to suspend Parliamentary democracy, also known as pro-roging, because Parliament have already said that that course of action would be unlawful. Furthermore MPs on Boris Johnson's own benches have said that they will be committed to introducing legislative means to make no-deal Brexit a living hell for their new Prime Minister. And finally, a little bit closer to home, Boris Johnson's got problems in Uxbridge and South Rhyslip. His majority there is about 5,000, which isn't enough room to be comfortable between him and the nearest competitor. If there is an early general election potentially before we leave the European Union, he'll have the Brexit party snapping at his heels and splitting his vote, meaning that there could be a pathway through for the Labour candidate, Ali Milani. This would make Boris Johnson the first Prime Minister in history to lose his seat. The media says he's Donald Trump, but the maths says he's John Major. He's in a uniquely vulnerable position as Prime Minister and it's going to take a lot more than canny branding and an acquiescent press to get him out of this particular jam.