 Good afternoon everybody and welcome to this webinar with the Institute for International and European Affairs. My name is Dario Kallig and I'm the chair of the UK group in the Institute and it really is a great pleasure for me to welcome Tommy Gorman. Tommy as you know has been the RTE man in Belfast for 20 years where he played a central and essential role in explaining in a very profound and complete way to people listening to him. Pop was happening in Northern Ireland before that of course he was in Brussels where he played an equally important role just before the end of the 20th century in explaining to people in Ireland what was happening in Europe so it's a great pleasure to welcome Tommy. He will speak to us on the future for Northern Ireland and the relations on these islands. Tommy you're most welcome the floor is yours. Thank you very much Dahi and it's lovely to be talking to people at this really important time in our history. I retired from RTE earlier this year I had 41 wonderful years there but you don't retire your temptation to watch things to analyze and to try and see where things are going so I'm glad that in recent days I started working with colleagues in a publication or in a website called A Currency and I intend to be providing two long reads there once a month for a start. So on a day like this when we live in such uncertain times it's it's I suppose it's a very human reaction to look somewhere for a ballast and to look for inspiration. So I think back to the day in 19 sorry in 2008 May 2008 when Tony Blair gambled correctly on like a rack on the Northern Ireland peace process when Bertie Hearn was also about to have his role and possibly what was the greatest achievement of his political career. That's the the the contribution they made to the restoration of devolved government in Stormont and I suppose it was extremely novel because it brought together the two opposites Shane Fain and the DUP at the head of that government and on that day Ian Paisley walked down those marvell steps in the Stormont chamber and he quoted Ecclesiastes tree he said there's a time for everything a season for every activity under the heavens a time to be born and a time to die a time to plant and a time to uproot a time to kill and a time to heal a time to tear down and a time to build and as I see it we are now in the era one that can't be avoided of a number of reckonings and we discuss the reckonings that I'm referring to in detail later in this conversation but first of all I think it's important to take into account about Ian Paisley that he even though he was the all-powerful leader of the DUP helped in a great way by the chief strategist of the DUP Peter Robinson Ian Paisley had to look over his shoulder within his own party too I think back to a time in November 2006 they had come back from Saint Andrews where there had been a political breakthrough and Ian Paisley gathered his troops in Stormont early in late November November the 24th 2006 and on that day Ian Paisley was attempting to deal with I suppose an upsurge of opposition within his own party they were called the 12 apostles and they were very very wary about the direction he was about to take about the signal that he was about to give that he was prepared to go into government and miraculously on that day from left field Michael Stone a loyalist paramilitary out on prison on out from prison on license attempted to get into Stormont it was a huge security rampus the building had to be evacuated and that managed to buy time for Ian Paisley the devolutionary refer to earlier was in 2007 not in 2008 excuse me so then the following year 2007 Paisley led the DUP into power sharing May 2007 within a year he was gone moved to one side moved to one side because he was in his 80s and the difficulties of being at the dispatch box once a week dealing with questions on his flow on the floor of the house in Stormont also some of the reluctance within his own party that he was pursuing this chocolate brother's relationship chocolate brother's a phrase coined by Jerry Moriarty of the Irish Times this chocolate brother relationship with Mark McGinnis that was causing some dissension in his ranks too so Peter Robinson took over as leader of the DUP that was 2008 just a year Ian Paisley had he had a year as leader and first minister then Robinson took over and Robinson in turn even though he was a very very able strategist he too had his difficulties you'll remember when he went to Florida on holidays was it in August 2013 and he dispatched that letter from Florida which really irked the Martin McGinnis and shame fame because he was withdrawing from some of the commitments that he had made including plans for developments and what was decided the old may his prison that was called a letter from Florida Robinson continued in power sharing the relationship and remember it's a unique relationship this mandatory coalition model was far from perfect as it was attempting to find its feet we always have to remind ourselves that it's a unique relationship in Western Europe this mandatory coalition model so Robinson in 2015 was still in power and one day he was due to go down to address a meeting in Dublin of all places and he had health issues an ambulance was sent for and he was subsequently told that having continued with his travels he might well have been dead by the time he reached Newry Peter Robinson required stents uh it forced I suppose or it encouraged a revaluation of his life and at the end of that year Peter Robinson stepped aside that was the end of 2015 and he came into 2016 so now there's a new leader and this is Arlene Foster Arlene Foster who has moved earlier in her career from the Ulster Unionist with Jeffrey Donaldson to the DUP one of the hammer blows against David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist party one of the factors in the growth of the DUP so Arlene Foster is in but she too had to look over her shoulder I remember she was at the Euros with Martin McGinnis in France in 2016 McGinnis was pushing her to go to an Ireland match and a Northern Ireland match as a symbol of a united power sharing administration Arlene Foster was reluctant to do so remember to in her first year um August in that summer of 2016 the Brexit referendum took place. Brexit referendum that had Arlene Foster and Martin McGinnis scurrying around to see what sort of a response they could have that would try to keep their show on the road despite this decision about Brexit and they spent over a week drafting a two-page letter it included in a clause we need to retain as far as possible the ease with which we trade with EU member states that was a Northern Ireland response that was the summer of 2016 and then if you look at what happened towards the end of 2016 George Bush became president of the United States Martin McGinnis was diagnosed with cancer and towards the end of 2016 Arlene Foster was now a year in his first minister the difficulties about the renewable heat incentive controversy began to emerge in a very dramatic way so before the year was out Martin McGinnis's health had worsened Arlene Foster was under such pressure that Sheen Thane was was preparing to withdraw from government and power sharing collapsed so that was the start of 2016 there was no power sharing administration you look at what happened since you had the efforts by the British and Irish governments to get devolved a government up and running again Jerry Adams before he left as Sheen Thane leader before he retired from that position he made one final effort to broker a solution with the DUP to reflow power sharing that didn't work and it took the efforts of Simon Coveney and Julian Smith on behalf of the British and Irish governments and the pressure I think from the electorate to get power sharing up and running after three years down so now you have Arlene Foster weakened by her experience of the RHI you have Brexit up and running plans for it and then the next thing that comes along just weeks after that administration was in place you have the pandemic Northern Ireland new administration trying to find its feet sadly with this pandemic which I suppose no administration in the civilized world has found fully effective fully efficient way of dealing with the pandemic Northern Ireland was no stranger to it I suppose its greatest bounce in relation to the pandemic came when the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who was under pressure gambled in relation to a vaccines policy that was ahead of most other places the United States and certainly the European Union included and Northern Ireland got a bounce from that but the entire 12 months of that new administration in Northern Ireland was spent dealing with the pandemic there was no opportunity to develop the kind of synergies and the kind of progress and the kind of relationships on other policy areas that would give out a signal of a fully effective government you look at some of the problems they had north south relations were damaged over who's going where where is the pandemic the greater the greater threat and so on you look at say the policy they had of giving grants to golf clubs of giving grants to businesses there was a Sinn Fein office that caught up got caught up in say that imperfect that imperfect policy that came from the storm and executive so you've had the storm and executive wobbling on so many fronts over the years exacerbated by Brexit certainly not helped by the pandemic and I think it was those circumstances including the fact that the dup was this party that always had difficulties adapting to power sharing through paisley's time through robinson's time and now through ironing fosters time that all those factors were bubbling below the surface so I think that's what has happened in recent times and that's why I say we're into a season of reckonings we've talked about the dup and we can say that that was inevitable let's talk about Brexit because it is the background problem to all of the political instability that we're seeing now let's talk about how it happened in northern Ireland I remember David Cameron throwing it out there to appease his own critics within his own party he made that promise in in relation in the run-up to the 2015 election the brexit referendum was held then in 2016 Theresa May was one of the few British government ministers who came to north she was home secretary at the time I think she came to northern Ireland immediately before the brexit vote there was no sense within conservative party politics and indeed in the debate that was taking place across the water there was no sense that northern Ireland was going to be the most vulnerable part of the United Kingdom because if brexit was actually carried if the decision was taken to withdraw from the European Union there was absolutely no understanding throughout the brexit debate of the role that Europe had played in northern Ireland's peace process in recent times we've quite rightly heard the role the Americans had buy-in from the Americans in the United States but I think any fair analysis of what happened in terms of the good fight agreement in the peace process would see the impact being a member of the European Parliament had on John Hume because I walked with him many of those nights in Strasbourg when you know he'd go and he'd look and he'd see neighbouring Germany and he'd talk about how Europe was this great example of compromise and reconciliation and Hume was inspired by what he saw in Europe and he in many respects he encouraged the two administrations and indeed the Americans to European European eyes Ireland's problem the northern Irish situation and it was ingenious in that respect because it actually built on the fact that we were all part of something bigger and that's something bigger had been quite a positive force in the reconciliation that took place in British and Irish relations in the 1970s the 1980s the 1990s and in more recent times Dahi who's chairing the session today was a diplomat in the Department of Foreign Affairs he saw at first hand what happened when Irish and British diplomats went and sat around that European table when we realized how much we had in common it was a positive factor in say the relationship with Margaret Thatcher and with success of British Prime Ministers throughout that line that continued right up to the present time with Boris Johnson it say it had an impact on John Major's time it had a huge impact on Tony Blair's time so there was in many respects there was a Europeanization of the Irish situation in the Brexit agreement and Hume who's I always say provided so much of the ideology for the Good Friday Agreement recognize that and when Brexit took place that very important supportive part of the architecture of the Good Friday Agreement was removed so as I see it now when people talk about the Northern Ireland protocol challenging and in some respects contradicting the Good Friday Agreement I say that's a very very valid point but it also has to go back to where the actual Brexit process began and it has to question whether that European dimension was taken into account in the Brexit debate in the United Kingdom and my conclusion is and I think the evidence is there to support it that the proper weight the proper understanding was not given to it I think it's also worth noting and these sessions I think in these times we should always try to be honest with ourselves and with others the DUP was the party in Northern Ireland that gave most support to Brexit there were elements in the Ulster Unionist party that were quietly supportive of it there weren't certainly elements in the in the Ulster Unionist party that were against Brexit that wanted to remain in the in say within the that wanted Northern Ireland to remain in the EU but certainly the DUP was the most committed party in favour of Brexit it actually helped that they had a number of members in the Westminster Parliament ten at one stage down to eight in more recent times but they were actually playing a role in the Brexit discussions their natural allies over the years were the Brexit tears just as the Brexit tears match and match your ally in the Brussels press corps I belong to in the 90s was Boris Johnson so the DUP were an important contributor to the Brexit debate at Westminster I think it's also worth pointing out that in the final days of the Brexit process when the Brexit campaign required further resources that they used a vehicle of money being given to the DUP and the DUP's finances as a party that was based in Northern Ireland the DUP were able to return those finances to providing the funding for some of the important material that was distributed in to large numbers of people in the days and in a very effective way immediately before the Brexit debate took place so I think it's always very important discussions like this for us to acknowledge that the DUP was consistently a pro-Brexit party the only one in Northern Ireland to do so and I think it's it's also relevant to state that Arlene Foster has made a number of very eloquent speeches in recent times including one in the storm at the chamber two days ago but she did state in the course of her contribution in storming Monday that she continues to support Brexit so Arlene Foster has shown no sign of saying well maybe we didn't give full consideration to the deeper consequences and the profound consequences of Brexit she remains loyal to her party position that Brexit was the right thing did the DUP expect that the vote would be carried in favour of the leaving the European Union I certainly know many senior significant figures in the DUP who did not think that would take place we all know David Cameron believed it would not take place and I think it should also be acknowledged that Theresa May as the British Prime Minister who showed a lack of awareness of the possible implications of Brexit when she came and she did that interview with Mark Devonport in I think it was probably May 2016 in Northern Ireland that as Prime Minister I think Theresa May began to grasp the more potentially profound consequences of Brexit on Northern Ireland when she became Prime Minister and I think some of her advisors at that time at that time were helpful in getting her to that position Theresa May was the person who wanted a softer Brexit that would have prevented a lot of the practical issues we are now seeing that flow from the Northern Ireland protocol and that has to be said to be fair to her but the DUP was one of the parties that went along with Boris Johnson in pushing for the harder Brexit all to think that when we're looking back at Boris Johnson's behaviour and I see now the suggestion that oh they had no idea that you know that the Northern Ireland protocol was going to be affecting people in such a meaningful way Boris Johnson in the last few weeks before he had to make his big move in relation to reaching a Brexit compromise with the British government he and his officials had several important conversations with Irish ministers with the Taoiseach at the time and with Irish officials you know I'm thinking of the likes of say from an Irish perspective the likes of Martin Fraser and John Kalman, Brian Murphy, James Darcy and on the British side you had the likes of Eddie Leicester, Mark Sedwell who was a Cabinet Secretary at the time always showed an awareness of Irish issues but I think that has changed and changed dramatically on the watch of Lord David Frost and I think that's where a lot of the current difficulties arise so now let's come to the modern, let's come to today and where I think things are at and the reckoning is that we're that are unavoidable. The first reckoning is this debate within the Democratic Unionist Party. Is it party of traditionalists? Is it a more hardline party? Is it a party that's heading towards the centre and believes in pragmatism? Robinson was a pragmatist, Arlene Foster was a pragmatist, Edwin Putes has been on the traditional wing of the party. As I see it the most important members in the DUP at the moment are Edwin Putes, his nominee for First Minister Paul Given, the economy minister Paul Frew was a very very difficult position, challenges on so many fronts and it's going to have to do some very fast learning and I think of the Westminster MPs by far the most influential at the moment is Ian Paisley Jr. So I think that debate is going to be had in the DUP, it's a reckoning that can't be avoided and I think in many respects because it has been there for so many years I take an attitude of I think bring it on and let it happen. I think the second reckoning that's going to take place is you look at say the numbers in the Northern Ireland Assembly at the moment, the DUP has 28 Assembly members, Sinn Féin has 27, the DUP lost several members in the last Assembly elections and you've always had this possibility of Sinn Féin becoming the largest party and that cannot be avoided. At the very latest the Assembly elections are due in May, if storm collapses before then the British government has the option of allowing elections before then it can take a number of emergency measures to prevent it for a couple of months for several months but at the latest you're going to have Assembly elections in May. Even before the Arlene Foster situation arose when she was removed there were some in the DUP wondering should we go to opposition and try and regroup there? It was only the beginning of a conversation but they were already thinking what happens if we are not the largest party? Will we go into government which Sinn Féin? And I think there's a very real possibility that the Good Friday Agreement model of a mandatory coalition, that that model is certainly up for review and you may have some parties who will be pushing for a more traditional model of government and opposition. I've always felt that it was unfair on the Northern Ireland Assembly that they've had no place to look to that they could say well this is how they do it here and these are the mistakes they make. They've had to find their own chemistry in this situation. They look at the Royal Ireland's government and opposition, okay coalition governments, single party governments, you have those models but you don't have this mandatory coalition, they don't have that in Westminster and if they're looking for examples it's usually a government and opposition model and that's the lonely place to be in to be trying to make new history. So I think those important elections are coming as well. The next question I think that we cannot avoid is the question of United Ireland. I think that debate is underway now. The question of a border poll, when will it take place, how will it take place, what would be the best circumstances for it to take place and I think that Brexit has contributed to that in some respects it has destabilised matters and I think it has accelerated the push for a border poll and I do believe that train has left the station I don't know when it's going to reach its destination, it's hard to predict that but I think it has left the station and that is definitely on the political agenda. All to think it's really important that at a forum like this we recognise what's happening with Sinn Fein. I look back at that picture of Ian Paisley and his party and Gerry Adams and Martin McGinnis and Sinn Fein sitting around the table in Stormont before they formed power sharing and that was a well moment because it signalled change. Can you look at where the DUP has travelled since then and gone backwards in some respects and what has happened to Sinn Fein? I remember was it 2011 Gerry Adams made the decision to go down south because he was afraid and his party was afraid that they had maybe hit that last ceiling they had five TDs at the time they were afraid they might step back to four I think was it Arthur Morgan was not going to stand and loud that's where Gerry Adams stood and you look at what has happened to Sinn Fein since you look at Sinn Fein at the time of the Good Friday Agreement the SDLP provided an awful lot of the ideology Sinn Fein grew to be the largest voice of nationalism stroke republicanism. Sinn Fein is now in that position and it's in that position even though it has seven members in Westminster who do not take their seats yet they still get a mandate you look at what has happened down south you look at opinion polls last week and I think it's very very clear that Sinn Fein is fast getting to the situation where it could well be the largest party in Northern Ireland after next May's elections and whatever may follow from those and it's at the very least in line to be the junior partner at least in a coalition government down south so that's an extraordinary journey now part of me says that journey has been going on for almost a hundred years that we have the centenary of Northern Ireland but if you look at the Sinn Fein story you look at its relationship with Fina Fawle you look at Michael Collins what was his policy when he was a senior figure in the IRA and his you know his links with Fina Gail you look at the round between Fina Fawle and Sinn Fein you look at the way Sinn Fein has got rid of smaller parties eaten them up one by one pushed them aside pushed its way to the centre you look at the pressure it's now placing a not just Fina Fawle and Fina Gail so I think that reckoning is coming south of the border as well the next reckoning that I think is taking is is is inevitable is one on Brexit what is Boris Johnson going to do in the next few weeks how are they going to handle the Northern Ireland protocol how is David Frost going to behave what is going to be the role of the Americans in terms of how they can impact on the British what I've seen in recent days is I've seen a British government that's currently under pressure over postponing its opening of society post post in the like in the pandemic circumstances and I see the greatest threat to Boris Johnson at the moment is not coming from Kirstam or under Labour or indeed from the SNP the greatest threat to Boris Johnson I think a short medium and probably long term is from within his own party and you can see that he will do things at times to appease his own party and I think if Boris Johnson remains under pressure over the pandemic and his policy there that he's quite likely to consider using the Northern Ireland protocol to appease some of his own back benchers and the DUP members included so I think it's coming to a reckoning in relation to Brexit in the in the next few weeks because some of these measures have either to be renewed or the British have to go on their own way oh there's a part of me that feels that the pressure from the Americans and the willingness of the Europeans who have been weakened by their vaccine strategy the willingness of the Europeans to always seek a compromise because it's from their very nature the optimist in me says that they will find a way to sort out the difficulties in the Northern Ireland protocol situation that you might bring some element of political stability to Northern Ireland but I think that reckoning is coming as well just a final point on I'm following matters over the last 48 hours I noticed Brandon Lewis on his feet today in relation to the Irish language row that's taking place in Stormont where do I see that going? Brandon Lewis in his conversations with Mary Lou MacDonald it seems it did make some offer that the British government would provide legislation on the Irish language if the DUP were not prepared to do so in Stormont fascinating that Shane Fain and the DBSD LP whose members take their seats in Westminster that they are looking on the possibility of using Westminster to solve a problem that Northern Ireland's Assembly itself is not able to resolve that these two nationalist parties United Ireland parties are looking to Westminster to do that the irony that is interesting my concern if Brandon Lewis does that is I think the next obvious move that will come there is you would have the likes of Nigel Dodds and Sammy Wilson in Westminster in the House of Lords and in the House of Commons saying if you are prepared to get involved on Irish language issues that Stormont cannot resolve well we are expecting you to do the very same in relation to the Northern Ireland protocol and I think if you bear in mind that the DUP have votes in Westminster that they take their seats in Westminster that they have important alliances in Westminster I think that could become a factor in British thinking that if they give the Sprat of the Irish language to the SDLP and Shane Fain that it would be well within their capacity to give the salmon deeper moves in relation to the Northern Ireland protocol to the DUP and to their own backbenchers so for those reasons I think we're in quite a volatile situation I think we're in a quite an interesting situation but the final thought I leave with you in this session of our discussions is one of the most profound changes I've noticed in Northern Ireland over the past 10, 15 years is the absence of any sort of grassroots support for the use of violence. Violence plagued our lives for 30, 40 years the utterly unnecessary taking of human life the awful effect that had on thousands upon thousands of people and I think that explains a lot of the visceral dislike people have of any party who would have any association with the use of force in our politics and while there have been examples in recent years of street protest of rioting and that is not off the table in current times nowhere have I seen any convincing evidence to suggest that there would be support for killing and shooting and burning like we saw throughout the troubles. I think there's no public appetite for that and one of the great advantages of this big brother society we live in of how you can put a little marker into your phone and you're going to meet somebody on your WhatsApp and they can see where you are on the road. I think this whole big brother society we live in where technology has moved to such a place I think and it brings me great joy to say this I don't see how even people who would have the intent to carry out a campaign of killing and trying to antagonize their neighbors I don't think the possibilities to do so exists in our modern society. Thank you.