 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a solid week of trading and everybody is healthy and happy going into the new week. Again, before we get started, guys, if you are brand new to the channel, we really appreciate the support. Please like and subscribe so you can be notified for any future uploads. They usually have from Monday through Wednesday, sometimes Thursday in case my kids have a basketball game that I missed throughout the week. And obviously on the weekend. So let's talk about the tape, right? So we are kicking off earning seasons. Obviously, the big news this week with the banks, right? You had some mixed results leading by Goldman Sachs having a lot of problems, right? A lot of issues. Goldman got absolutely destroyed this week. If you look at the Dow at the end of the week, the Dow fell nearly 3%. It was kind of a big deal. You look at, for example, Netflix that kicked off the start of earning season for mega cap technology. And they had their own issues, right? They had their own little issues. And if you watched social media sentiment, and again, unfortunately, we are right now in a world that social media sentiment is kind of a big deal for a lot of people. Because again, people don't fully trust technical analysis. They don't fully trust their own process. So they are still subconsciously at that point that we need opinions, right? We need everybody's opinions, which realistically, the only opinion you need is right in front of the charts. So you saw Goldman get crushed down 30 points one day. Had another ugly session on Friday. You had Netflix come out, right? And they had their own world of headlines. Subscribers were up. Their numbers did not come in great. And started a whole spew of a debate, right? Netflix is the worst. They're the worst. They should be at zero. Guys, let me let you a little secret. In case you haven't figured this out yet, I'm going to break the spoiler alert for you. The market doesn't have to make sense. It never has. It never will. Okay. Going back to when I started all the, you know, all the traditional fundamental traders in late 90s, early 2000s said, there's no way we can buy Amazon at this price. How could you buy Amazon at 100? Went to 300. Broadcom at 30. How can you buy Broadcom if one went from 30 to 60? Went to 400. The market doesn't need to make sense, right? We just went through a global pandemic. Okay. Raise your hand if you ever thought in your lifetime, you're going to see a global pandemic. It's like something from the 1800s. We went through a global pandemic, right? That majority of, well, brick and mortar businesses, for the exception of the big ones like Walmart and stuff, because obviously they're safer than the mom and pop one. I'm obviously sarcastic right now, right? Everything was shut down for two weeks. People lost their jobs. Businesses folded. Some people lost their homes. And then a month later, we were at all-time highs. So fast forwarded to kind of Netflix. And this is kind of my whole point, right? No matter what your position was on Netflix, whether you were long into earnings, short into earnings, or just an innocent bystander, understand that your opinion and the fundamental reality of what a company is has no merits, has zero effect of what's going to happen with the stock market price. So when you saw the headline, right, you saw pretty much Netflix missed on earnings, right? And with the ads and this and that, the third, but the subscribers went up. And at the end of the day, it didn't make a difference if you were long or short or an innocent bystander. The moral of the story was Netflix was up $27 on the deck. That's it. That's the end of the conversation. Whatever you had to say prior, during, and after, it makes absolutely zero credibility and group of zero credence. Because at the end of the day, the fair value, right? Fair value of a stock is its four o'clock close. And unless my quotes are wrong, Netflix was up $27 a day and closed at $300 and $342.50, right? That is fair value. It's the last price somebody's willing to buy and sell the stock at the four o'clock close. So going into this, going into this earning season, just keep that in mind, right? The market doesn't need to make sense. It doesn't need to satisfy and kind of validate your thought on the company fundamentally. Stocks are going to go up or they're going to go down. That's just the reality, okay? I figured this out a long time ago. I figured out that I'm an idiot a long time ago that in my opinion doesn't mean anything. Your opinion doesn't mean anything. I've seen stocks. I can give you a perfect example. Before Nvidia became viable again, right? This is the time we were still taking stocks into earnings. I'm talking about 15 years ago. No more. A little less. Maybe 12 years ago, right? We took AMD into earnings, okay? I think the stock was $5 or $7, something like that. Long time ago, long, long time ago. And if you heard their conference call, the only thing they didn't say during that conference call was we're going bankrupt. That's how bad the conference call was, okay? And guess what? As soon as the conference call ended, the stock ran up about 17% the next day. It doesn't need to make sense. Trust me. So the least amount of time you try to figure out, the least amount of time that you try to validate your own ego, the more time you can free up and just take the price action for what it is. And if the one thing that you are hell-bent about is being right or being afraid to be wrong or being ridiculed on social media, am I going to call you an idiot for getting something wrong? Crazy, right? The most important part is stick to price action. Trust technical analysis. If you are a long-term investor and you're stuck in a position, you don't need to sit there for hours and hours and try to validate your point or your opinion with others who don't care, right? Who don't care. You think any trader that's been doing this for a long time is sitting there and somebody tweets at them, you're wrong. Okay, but I'm wrong, right? What's going to happen? I mean, you're going to be right or right or wrong. There's two things that can happen. So it doesn't make a difference, guys. Use your time with a lot more productivity. If you're a long-term trader or a long-term investor, make sure your company is still rock solid fundamentally. Usually good things are going to happen. If you are a trader and you trade both sides of the market, just remember, you're going to be wrong. You're going to be wrong a lot. I'm wrong every single day, right? Some days I come into the day. I'm 1,000% long-bias and the market goes down 600 points. What can you do? Advise or so, what can you do? Again, we don't know the next day's closing prices. If I knew the next day's closing prices, you wouldn't ever hear of me. You never even see me, right? We don't know. We're human beings. The most important thing is what we can do. Again, and I say this every single video, is take the price action, right? Take the price action based on the previous night's research, like we're going to talk about in a second, okay? And then try to wait for that confirmation. So if I'm going into tomorrow's session long-bias, which I think everybody can make a case, again, here's a perfect example why I'm long-bias, right? We started the year just like we did in 2022 below the 50-day moving average. Eventually we got above the 50-day moving average and started building. We lost it on one day. Netflix came, saved the market, rallied the market up 2.5% on the Nasdaq on Friday, and now we are one candle away a couple of days away from taking out the previous day's hot. Right, that's a bullish thing. And you're talking about stocks and continuation of data that continues to pile on the case, bullish, bullish, bullish. And again, are you going to have days that the market is going to come in surprisingly more aggressively than you thought? Absolutely, right? That's what the market is. It's the complete opposite of what we talked about in the bear market, right? In the bear market, you're going to have selling, selling, selling, selling, selling, then massive rally, selling, selling, selling, massive rally. So the upside, you're going to have the same thing. You're going to have rally, rally, rally, rally, big sell-off, rally, rally, right? And close near the highs. So going into this week, of course, I'm bullish, right? Nasdaq reclaimed the 50-day moving average. You had a bunch of data this week that you can take and feel pretty good about. You had Microsoft coming out, got downgraded, the stock rally. They also had a 5% workforce reduction, then rally. Google had a workforce reduction rally. Amazon had a work reduction rally. Again, this is a perfect example why things don't make sense. If I own a bagel store, right, and I have five employees, and I let go two of them, right, it's a sign that my business is dying. In the corporate world, on Wall Street, when you lay off, you know, when you lay off people, it's not a sign of your business is dying. It's a sign you're saving money. All right, that's a good thing. That's where it gets everything up. So again, disconnect reality from fantasy, reasonable, not reasonable, rational, not rational. It's all about the price action, and it's all about trying to put yourself in a position of strength to trade off that price action instead of guessing. So let's talk about the indexes a little bit, and then we will talk about some individual names that I like about this week. Again, like we just briefly mentioned, we had a two-day pullback in the NASDAQ. Everything looked like, uh-oh, here we go again. Netflix, no matter, again, if you spend nine hours on, you know, nine hours debating with some guy from, you know, some random state about the fundamentals of Netflix, what should happen, what you think is going to happen, nobody cares. Netflix saved, literally saved the NASDAQ 100 and reclaimed the 50-day moving average. So it looks very, very good. It stopped right at supply here. The market, for the NASDAQ to continue to price-improve and start pushing to the top of the channel here in this 296 level, I think we need to close above this 285. Everybody see this, uh, this linear, this, uh, Bollinger Man here, 284, 85, right? Everybody see it? So what we would need to do is a close over 285, and if that case happens, you could see just by following your eyeballs in case somebody is brand new to the channel and say, hey, Dan, how can we have all these lines? It's so unnecessary, says the person that's trading for 20 weeks versus the person that's trading for nearly 24 years, right? It kind of shows you, right? Kind of shows you where the next supply zone is going to be and this is where we get those levels that we can trade and see measured potential. So if we can get a close above 285, then we see 287.50s and any close above 287.50s, then we start pushing these high channels to this 291, 295 level, which obviously would create a really, really good aggressive market. When you look at the S&P, we'll use the SPY as a proctor, kind of mirrored exactly what the Nasdaq did. Surprisingly, one of the bigger players in the S&P 500 this week was Goldman Sachs, right? Goldman got absolutely destroyed, and even with Goldman being destroyed and even with the S&P having a slight down week, I believe the S&P was down about 0.7%, right? Despite all that, the bulls did a great job, right? They reclaimed back the 50-day moving average, and now it looks exactly the same mirror image of the Nasdaq. You can see here it stopped right at this supply zone, daily supply zone for the SPYs to get really going again. I think they need a close above 297. If 297 gets marked on a close, then we can see this 401 test on the upper channels. Any close obviously above 400, the market's going to start to stretch pretty, pretty well. And when you look at the Dow Jones, and for me, the Dow is by far the least amount of importance of all the indexes just because it's only 30 stocks. It's very, very easy for the Dow to go up and down 600 points. It looks great on paper. Hey, the Dow's up 600 points, and you realize if every Dow stock is up like 3-4 bucks, there you go. So it doesn't really create a buzz here. The Dow does start the week under the 50-day moving average, but again, it's much more important for me that the S&P and the NASDAQ reclaim back the 50-day for the bulls to get going back on the Dow. I think it needs to reclaim, the diamonds need to reclaim 336 on the close. I think 336 on the close will kind of get it a little bit more breathing room. Going into this week, again, we have another big week of earnings on the Fedfront. You saw a couple of tidbits every week, but then again, it's a continuation of talk. I've said this every broadcast. I believe that the Fed chairman, the vice chairman, all the governors, they just literally get paid by the word. This week, you had, who was it? Was it Boehner that came out? One of these, let's see, Boehner came out. She basically turned around and said, hey, I can see a scenario that rates are going to stay high, but we're going to do whatever it takes. The normal jargon, whatever it takes until inflation is curved. At the way down, you had Feds Waller, right? Turned around and started talking from both sides of the aisle. Said, yeah, yeah, we could see that happening. Great job, Boehner. We got that part. We could also see a slowdown, maybe start endorsing a 25-base put hike and maybe start eventually throughout the year, maybe start considering cutting rates as well. You could see this is a lot of back and forth. It's like Washington DC, nothing really gets done. They're just talking heads one after the other, one after the other. At the end of the day, all it does, it frustrates the intraday trader because every single headline that we see is either going to take down our trades and take it up depending how lucky you are and how good of a person you are in the previous life. You could survive that type of talk. But going into this week, a ton, right? We got a ton of earnings. Let's talk about some names. Everybody really that important. But Tuesday, right? You got Tuesday, you got Microsoft. That's definitely going to set the tone. We already know about the job cuts. We already know about the downgrade early in the week, ironically, by Goldman Sachs. They had their own issues. So you have Microsoft. You got a whole bunch of Dow components. You got Johnson & Johnson, triple M. Then you got Texas Instruments and the tech space, ISRG, Capital One Financial, and so forth and so on. Wednesday, right? Wednesday is going to be the big one, a name that is very, very near and dear to my heart is Tesla. Some of you guys will notice something about Tesla. I did some very, very small case study. I looked at my sheets this weekend. I usually don't look at my sheets until the end of the month. Just kind of see if anything stands out. But I looked at my last four pivots on Tesla. And the one thing I've noticed is, for the exception of the first day of January, that we had this really, really aggressive pull, if you guys remember, 13, 14 points, the last four pivots, if you guys realize, the stock has been trading natural pivots that it's former life. The former pivots would be $3, $4, $5, and then consolidation up and down, up and down. And the last four pivots that I've traded, they've had an average true range from the natural pivot between $1.25 and $1.75. And if you guys saw that on Friday, you kind of saw the same thing, right? Tesla had a really nice push for us right from the word go, right from the word go, went up about $1.50, $1.75, and then it just sat literally for the next four hours within a dollar range. And the question is, the question I was thinking of, well, did the stock changes personality, right? Is there something different? And I started brainstorming a lot of things in my head and I said, well, maybe it's just a lower, now that it's lower price, the average true range has shrunk, right? But again, is that really hold water considering only a month ago, a month ago it was still putting in way higher, way bigger average true range. Again, so that's possibility. Somebody said, well, is there a possibility that there's less participants? I really don't buy that because if you look at the liquidity, the stock acts incredible. The stock itself trading wise is actually trading really, really well. It's obeying every single level. The volume is ridiculous, right? You got 138 million shares traded on Friday. That's not even a big deal anymore. The previous day, hold on here, the previous day, the stock traded 170 million shares, this ton of liquidity. Maybe it's just kind of finding itself or kind of a stall pattern ahead of its Wednesday's earnings. We'll see, right? We don't know. But more important thing is if it is, right? If this is truly the next metamorphicism of its personality, it's our job, right? Kind of let go back of how it traded in the past and start finding out creative ways or responsible ways to trade it and still get the best bang for your buck. If you guys saw on the Twitter feed, I started kind of doing a little bit of case study. We'll talk about a little bit more tomorrow and morning strategy throughout the week. But I think I found the solution to kind of subsidize the initial move. And who knows, maybe it goes back to normal as soon as earnings are out. But if this is kind of a longer term scenario for the way Tesla is trading, we have to let go of what it used to do and put ourselves in a position to see what it should do and now might do with its new personality. So let me give you guys a couple of ideas for the trading week. I do like a lot of names. Obviously, the market looks pretty strong. Again, is it possible? We open up Monday down, of course. Again, everything is possible. I'm wrong. I'm wrong a lot. Nobody's seen it. I'm impressed to you. We're just trying to put ourselves in a position to win. That's it. Believe me, nobody knows the closing price. We're just going to get ready for it, prepare for it and wait for confirmation. So let's talk about some names that I do like. CRM looks good. It's a little bit of a thinner trader, but it finally broke out. You can see here. It finally broke out here. Beautiful channel here. Good consolidation here. Keep an eye on CRM. Also check its earnings date. If they can confirm above a Friday's channel, look at which room you have. It looks really good. The video continues to look really, really strong. As we saw the NASDAQ get clobbered in 2022, now the names that got clobbered, the tangible names, not the UPSTs of the world that lost 90% of the value, but the real, real companies, right? The market leaders, like NVIDIA, it looks great. It finally reclaimed the five-day moving average after two days of really aggressive supply as a back test. Keep an eye on this thing above this top range here. If they could reclaim, if they could reclaim back this 150-day moving average, I think there's a shot here. We saw the 180, 185 calls coming in from next week, and as we get closer and closer to earnings, we'll get a better sense here. Amazon continues to act really, really well. Again, the hundreds continue to pour in. I like Amazon, like everybody else. Google from the jobs cuts got a big, big jolt. Again, maybe Google's a perfect candidate to buy on dips. Very hard to buy this thing on strength. Friday had probably one of the strongest days I can remember in a long time, especially with the 286-point move on the Nasdaq. But every name that you like going into this week, like NVIDIA, like Amazon, even Tesla, Google, anything, if we can get a dip, right, and that would be the preferable preference drug of choice, we can get a dip at the open into rising 60-minute support. I would love to actually entertain those levels instead of taking out Friday's channels just because it's much easier, because if they stole out of Friday's channel, at least you have some room for some cash flow. So I know I definitely like everything on dips. The one stock that's not acting well is E&PH. Just to, again, always have a name or two just to watch in case the market doesn't go in your direction. Keep an eye on E&PH. It was trading a little bit thinner, but it was trading on SSR on Friday, and despite their very, very strong move on all the indexes, the stock was still red in the day. Keep an eye on this thing. If this thing starts losing, this thing starts losing Friday's channels, maybe you got more room to the downside. So that's it, guys. Hopefully everybody is doing well. Again, if you're a brand new trader and you're only trading for a couple of years, don't get frustrated. You don't need to know everything your first year. You don't need to go through everything your first year. Let the organic grow nice and calmly. What you think in your head sensationalized where your career is supposed to be after two years. It's just not realistic after one year. It's not realistic. Let everything play out organically. Let that light bulb eventually turn. And the most important part is put yourself in a situation that you're not in it for the trade. You're in it for a career. Guys, have a great night. Have a great week. Hope everybody does well. I'll see you guys all in the video on Monday. Take care.