 Our next panel, which is the future of security in Latin America, my friend and colleague, Danny Rothenberg of ASU and also New America, is gonna moderate this discussion. Thanks, everybody. So we're honored to be joined by Ambassador Juan Carlos Pinzón. So he was the former Colombian ambassador to the United States. He was also the minister of defense and also ran for president in the country. And he's currently the John Weinberg visiting professor at Princeton University. So I'd like to start by just asking you to reflect a little bit on the context we're in now. So in the post-911 era, there's been a lack of a coherent and consistent US policy towards Latin America. I'm wondering if you think that such a policy should be enacted, developed? And if so, what would be like the core principles that would motivate a policy like that? Well, thank you, Dan. First of all, a pleasure to be here and always great to be in this space. It's the second time I get to be part of this wonderful conference that happens every year. So good to be here. Well, that question that you just made is the eternal question in Washington and the eternal question in every capital of Latin America. Why is that? It's so obvious that if we work together, we will be very powerful and strong as a region. And why is not that somehow doesn't happen? In a way, probably the centers of power are very much related to geopolitics and economics. So Asia, Europe have been the center of focus for the US for years. It's kind of, everybody has taken for granted the South, the Western Hemisphere as a whole. Probably the US was very influential for years and in a way never had the need to go beyond. But sometimes we forget about the potential of the region. You know, when we think about not North America or Latin America, but we think about the Americas, the hemisphere has a billion people, more than that. So it's an incredible huge market. And this is the region of the world that probably is absolutely independent of any other if we will put all the resources to work. It has water, more fresh water than any other. It has more biodiversity than any other. It has more minerals than any other, lithium, copper, gold, you name it, oil, gas, et cetera. It has a region, especially in the tropical center where we can have access to wind and solar power. The capacity to produce food in the Western Hemisphere is second to none in the whole planet. So what explains? You know, we cannot see it like that and make it operational like that. And that's the big thing I believe we need to think through. The other part we should not forget is that Latin America continues to be a very young area of the world. The average age is 29 still. So there's still some time to develop a lot of opportunities in human capital, education, technology, that if we were to combine, I'm sure we'll have an incredible impact especially now. But as we say this, which is probably true 10 years ago, 20 years ago, you know, even before, we get to the present and we see new players. Global power competition is happening. And players are seeing what I describe. But not having America as this great partner with technology and education to contribute to the region and help us to increase our productivity, be infrastructure, but other players. China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, or even, you know, regional powers like Brazil that are looking to partner through the bricks to other players. So a big question is, aren't we getting a little bit late for trying to do that? Well, my answer to that question is, I think we're on time. I think there are many cultural reasons and historic reasons, including the fact that we have democracy, including the fact that here in the United States, we have probably the fourth or fifth largest Latin American country of the world. It happens to be here in the US. So the bridges are already on. How do we make those bridges operate? Will be a big question, but that's very important. Now my concern as we speak, that I perceive the region going in a different way. This narrative that I just provide is probably the one we would love to see. But the region is shifting, is going away from this story. So how do we correct that? So it's interesting when Latin America was at the forefront of US policymaking on the news all the time, et cetera, usually was because of various references to security, viewed as a security threat or viewed as security partners. So in the last several decades, we've seen other regions, whether the Middle East or now China above all, the security threat sensibility is what's driven a lot of the policy interest. So do you think that what it will take for the US to develop some sort of more coherent engagement with the region is some sort of pressing security threat? And if so, what might that be? Or do you not agree with that? No, I fully agree, and this is a big point, and we gotta go back and look to history. There are three ways of US interest in the region. Probably we're getting into the fourth one. Let's make sure that this fourth one is really effective for the long term. Let me remind you, the first time the US really realized about the Western Hemisphere, and the Hemisphere look as a whole as an important place to try to do things was prior to the Montreux Doctrine. And why did that happen? Because all of us agree at that time that we didn't want the European powers to come back. So somehow we found this idea of the Americas for the Americans, meaning the Americas, not the United States of America, but the whole Americans, and Americans, not only those that were born in the US, but all of us who were born in the Americas. So that was the first time. But then, we forgot the Europeans got into their own wars, they fought for a hundred years in the end of 19th century and 20th century, but suddenly by the start of World War II, there were two powers that were trying to project global power, Germany and Japan, especially Germany. The Nazis did have ties in the South. So that became a real threat to the United States. That became a real challenge, and certainly there was a major effort to deny that power. Through military collaboration, actually in the year 1941, the big response were these security agreements. And that was the way in which that was prevented. Later on, cold war happened. And during the 50s and 60s, when we saw those guerrilla warfare movements coming to the region, being successful in Cuba, and suddenly having a guerrilla in every country of Latin America, then came a new idea from the United States, and it had two parts. One was using the US agencies to confront these kind of threats militarily and with other tools, but also there was a social economic tool that worked very well and was somehow the Alliance for Progress from President Kennedy that somehow had an impact and create these balance that yes, the US can create progress and prosperity. As time passes, that was abandoned in a way, and we forgot that in time. By the end of Cold War, I have to think that there was a good intention, but never came to a real end, which was trying to create this major Western hemisphere market. And that was this idea of creating the pre-trade market of the Americas. But it never really ended as an opportunity. So where are we today? Latin America was taken for granted. The US got very much engaged into the Middle East, you know, into Central Asia. More recently, it's looking a lot to the Pacific. And Latin America was taken for granted, but now it's being contested. And somehow these powers are here again. Here's where we have an opportunity. I see out of the geopolitical competition an incredible opportunity for the US to go for this fourth wave of interest in the hemisphere and work hard. But where do I see a big challenge? The challenges of security in the region. Organized crime. Organized crime is taking over almost every country of Latin America. From Mexico to Argentina, including definitely my country, Colombia, you will see the presence of organized crime in politics, in power, in territorial control, and creating an effect in society. Of course, that is very much connected to political realities. Inequality continues to be there. Corruption continues to be a terrible disease. But unfortunately, a response that Latin Americans have looked for, of the need of change and the need of solving these major issues is not coming as a real solution. It's coming from people that used to be during the Cold War era, very much against democracy, very much against the values that we share of free market and freedom. They kind of have new clothes but are the same people. But in essence, they're trying to promote change. They're not being effective socially and policy-wise. And on the contrary, chaos is happening more often in countries like Mexico, like Guatemala, like Honduras, like Colombia, even countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Chile, not to forget about Peru and not to forget about recent events in Ecuador are really showing that these models of organized crime, politicians, and all ideologies combined are not being positive for the region. So yes, we have this opportunity of the fourth wave, but I think Washington and definitely Latin Americans need to be aware of the challenges that we're confronting combined. So essentially, you've given us a good context for US-Latin American relations. One of the defining features of woven into that timeline is Latin America being the premier region and one of the premier regions for what's known as the third wave of democratization, the shift from authoritarian regimes to democratic regimes, which came in with a great deal of excitement among many, both of the academy and also on the ground. And yet, if you look at polling now, a lot of the populations in countries, those more democratic and less democratic in the region, I have quite negative feelings about the democratic process and often about democracy. I'm wondering what you think helps explain that and whether democracy in Latin America has a rich, vibrant future and if so, what would guide it that way? So the Gallant War poll, just to prove your point, shows that when you think about institutions worldwide, as they are supported around 70% average worldwide in Latin America is below 50%. So there's a real challenge about the credibility of institutions to solve problems. Second, when you think about democracy and the credibility of elections, you have these Vanderbilt University studies, the Latin Arrometer that is showing that Latin Americans are starting to distance from the confidence in democracy and starting or not to care about what system they have or even in some countries, starting to support the idea that if it is to fight corruption, you're ready to support any kind of autocratic system, which is very worrisome. And that somehow explains the reality of what we're getting. We're getting more radical governments in power. We're getting people that once they get to power, they use democracy just basically to seal or to guarantee that they can do whatever changes. So they move into more privacy concept of democracy. So they use the votes to change institutions and that is happening more often. So it's problematic and I think that's something that we need to watch. So these very victorious language of post-Cold War which meant we have the most democratic hemisphere after Europe, well, is something that today is in question. Democracy is weakening, institutions are having problems. And with that, you combine security. Another element of the world poll, when you ask the question, do you feel safe when you walk alone at night? The area of the world that has the worst number compared to any other in the world is Latin America. But another number, out of the 50 cities that are most violent in the world, 41 of those are in Latin America. So people don't trust justice, don't trust institutions, and suddenly they start to trust either politicians that are promising crazy things or governments that suddenly provide some sense of security and some sense of solution. So it's problematic and we see that, we see the case of Venezuela, a case of, well, Cuba is an all case but always problematic, the case of Nicaragua and other cases in which democracy is not looking as we thought should be democracy. Can you think of a set of core principles or ideas that would motivate US policy towards Latin America? There was a focus on democratization, quite a strong push for all that and support in a variety of ways during that transition. There have been other pushes at different times but what would pull the interests of the country together to have some coherent vision on the region? And this we just have two minutes so just a short and focused response if possible. Well, first thing I'm gonna say, I'm nobody to recommend the policymakers in Washington. The US is strong enough and they have to find their responses but from my perspective, being from the region and being a Colombian, I perceive three things. First, I wish the US to keep being friend of their friends and not try to be so much friend of their enemies because that could solve problems in the short term, could keep fires low but long term is a bad solution because suddenly you are allowing cases of dictators or total misbehaviors or in the case of Venezuela, a government that is with a terrible record of human rights suddenly validated. So be aware of that. The solutions of today can be very harmful long term and can give a very bad example. That's one. But second, let's speak on the positive. What we're missing in Latin America is human capital and infrastructure. The combination of those two things create the concept of productivity. Productivity is stagnant in Latin America for the past 50 years. When you think about East Asia, that's the East Asian miracle. South Korea, Malaysia, even China, that's the miracle. They were able to educate people and combine that with the right quality of infrastructure and suddenly they were able to become more productive and innovative. That's what we're not doing. So if you are in the part of the world in which you have these young people with access to all these natural resources that we have, but we leave closer to the place of the world that has more technology and more universities of quality than any other in the world, that's North America, that's the United States of America. Why is that we're not getting that spillover? Why is that we're not raising that level of education and somehow access to technology and infrastructure? That's very important. And that's denying, as we speak, an incredible opportunity that geopolitics are giving to the region. The events of COVID and the events of the war in Ukraine have wake up this geopolitical all sense that you better have your centers of production, at least in different parts and hopefully in parts that you can control. So the perfect spot to bring all these production is Latin America. Why are we not getting all that massively? Because we don't have the skill labor or the logistics or even the political stability due to organized crime that I described before that guarantees the environment for companies to come and sit. That's a big thing. And that's something that we should be working on. That will be ideal. We can really focus on both US policy and of course Latin American institutions, private sector, different kinds of leaders and hopefully governments. But I see many of the governments in Latin America distracted with, as I said, all narratives and some of them very compromised with organized crime, which is very concerning. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you.