 Okay, let's kick things off here. We're just on the risk warning screen of today's webinar. It's, of course, the CMC Markets Weekly Charting Analysis webinar. My name's Jasper Lawler. As per usual, any questions at all, just feel free to chuck them into the Q&A or chat window, and I'll be happy to address them right at the time if it's the market we're discussing or perhaps if it's something a little different, just get to it at the end. And we're scheduled for half an hour here. So it's probably going to be half an hour of sort of prepared material on the most popular markets we offer. We're then happy to go over that. Should anyone have some extra markets or extra questions? Okay. So, yeah, just having a look at the euro here, obviously that was, you know, that is today and was part of the big news film because the ECB have began their quantitative easing program. So that's actually officially kicked off as of today. And you're already starting to see some of that take place in the German Bund market, you know, the major benchmark bond for Germany. We're seeing the price of the bonds going higher, the yields coming lower, and that's a theme that we've been seeing for the past few months in anticipation of this QE taking place. And today is the day that it officially starts. So all the movements in the markets that we've seen to date, particularly in Europe obviously where this is most relevant, have been in anticipation of today and obviously the weeks to come. So now it's actually starting. It'll be interesting to see if we do get some element of, you know, buy the room or sell the news or, you know, in the case of the euro, sell the room or buy the news. Once the program actually begins, obviously there is a physical demand in the market for these bonds. German bonds have been what have bought so far, it sounds like, but other bonds from the likes of France and Italy and Spain are going to be bought as well. So all those markets do have a sort of natural support, not only just from the European Central Bank buying them, but just from the fact that other investors are not really going to be too keen to sell them knowing that there's an institution there buying them with pretty much limitless amounts of money because they used to be print money, you know, create digital money in order to buy these bonds. So, you know, who in their right mind is really going to go up against that? Someone who can just print money and dare invest forever until the market falls apart at least. So this is the euro. It's the most obvious market to look at. And so if we just scale up to the weekly chart here, you know, this is a chart we're all pretty familiar with. I'm sure even those not trading the euro will be aware of the massive declines we had from May last year. You know, it's a similar theme for a lot of kind of US dollar denominated assets, but in this case obviously we're trading euro US dollar. So originally a large part of this actually was to an extent the strength of dollar. You know, this chart does not look too dissimilar to oil, a little bit gold, but also the British Pound and the Dolly Yen looks the opposite. Obviously, each of those have their own individual factors, but the strength of the US dollar is part of this. And obviously that was the other big event from last week was the US non-fond payrolls result, and that's kind of what that together with QE kicking in is what's really broken us down through that kind of 111 and even smashed down through 110. So just actually meant to bring us onto a monthly chart. This is a level of vague note. You know, this is a monthly chart, so these support levels, which this is a distinct support. You know, we've got three candles on either side of this low formed here and obviously plenty above. So that's what we're just coming into here. It's a long-term level, so these things, you know, they don't always work out perfectly, but we could be getting some support into there. And then I have this line, which is far from perfect, and it's a long-term line, so anywhere in this zone below could also be acting as some sort of support. And we've come a long way, but you know, my general take on this, if you've joined before, is to not really fight the trend, but at least be aware of where we could get some bounces. If we do get a bounce in an around this area, I think the first logical one would just be that low that we'd formed after having this massive consolidation. If you're wondering what these shaded areas are, I've just been using those in a way to kind of define previous areas of consolidation and where some demand was trying to come in, where there was a bit of battle taking place between buyers and sellers, often works as a future place of support. You know, if I go back here, for example, it's easy to cherry pick examples, but just to give you a decent working example, you know, that's resistance here. We go up, we dip into this zone, so this line has not worked perfectly, but it is something along the lines of this kind of demand area and bounced off there. So it's not like you can buy right on that line necessarily, but with a benefit hindsight you could have. But you know, you're looking for some sort of reversal on the lower timeframes. I typically just use the daily candlestick chart to get some more detail on if there is a bit of a candlestick pattern or an indicator pattern of some kind showing that this resistance has in fact turned into support. So, you know, the same idea here, you know, that's what I'll be looking for in return up to this zone here, which was really pretty solid support and then just this low here. So that would be the first area to be looking for some sort of area to go short of the market up here, too. You know, obviously there are opportunities long, but the reason I'm saying short is because we are beneath these moving averages and, you know, they are as size in a selling type zone. So that's just with the direction of the trend. In terms of European data this week, it's getting a little bit Greek again. There's not so much in the way of actual economic data. We do have some French and Italian industrial production on Tuesday. We've got Draghi speaking on Wednesday, but given the fact that we just had the ECB press conference last week, there's probably not going to be too much you can really add. I mean, it will be after the beginning of the program's begun. So maybe he'll, you know, enlighten us a little bit in terms of how the actual purchases are taking place, but I suspect not to be quite honest. So otherwise, it's US data and really the main one in terms of US data is all we get is, oh, that doesn't happen until Thursday when we've got the US retail sales report. So before we get into talking about that, let's maybe just look at some other currencies. We could look at Dolly Yen. That's been, you know, made a pretty critical move on Friday. You know, this is the range that we've been in. So again, I've got this kind of shaded area. It's just using the weekly chart here. You can see this is kind of where we broke out of this opening level there to the upside. And then this is where we broke down from this opening level on this candle. So I've been using that. And you can sort of see on this daily chart that what's happened is that we spiked right through it, went above 121 easily, but haven't closed through this zone yet. So even though it's looking good today, should we get another close below here? We'll have two spikes above this zone. And that would actually be a bit more bearish. Even though, you know, we're above the moving averages and things, it's just not necessarily a sell signal. But if we did close the day lower, essentially, because we opened right on this zone, we closed the day lower. To me, that would not be necessarily a chance to get straight along the market. And we could be looking for a dip down towards the, you know, the previous peak. And then a kind of safer one for me would just do where we broke above here. And sort of 119, 80 type area. So, but it, you know, there is, so at the moment, we haven't really confirmed the move out of this zone, but it is, even though I'm saying, you know, we could get a little further dip down here, it does sort of look like we are going to retest the peak up here. Now that could be another selling opportunity up there. But, you know, just looking at how we've sort of moved above these moving averages and also going back to the weekly chart here, just the fact that we had this big bearish candlestick from the top of the zone. So that, you know, reached the previous peak, dipped into the selling zone, sold off. That should have resulted in, you know, breaking down at least to the bottom of the zone. We'd closed the next week higher, next week higher by this point. You know, that's why we had such a strong week last week, is because at this point, this pattern's basically been nullified. It didn't even have any follow-through, really. And now, you know, now we're up through the highs of the zone. So based on this weekly chart, you know, I think we are going to get a test at the top of the zone. But just on the daily chart, just that little longer wick to me suggests that probably we could get a possibly a better entry on a bit of a pullback down here. But it does depend on how we close today. We had, we did have revision lower to the Japanese GDP, but this move really is pretty dollar-based. You know, if you are looking for news to trade this to me, it's, you know, the news out of the U.S. is what's important here. We will just have a quick look at cable while we're on currencies. Pound, again, if we flip to the weekly chart, this is actually quite a good example of this, previous concept working, you know, where this was our, you know, kind of below that we put in here. You know, we tried to kind of break higher if you can only see it the way I've drawn this box, but that was the sort of high. Let's go back down to the data so you can see the idea that I've basically drawn it off the highest price and the lowest of this consolidation on the weekly chart. So you can see this was the high of the zone, if you like. But we weren't able to push above it. Couldn't really make a lower low, pushed up, couldn't make a higher high either, and then eventually chopped around a bit for a few false breaks, you know, which always difficult. It's why having a sell-stop order beneath lows is tricky, unless you've got to stop last way up here or well out of the way at least. A few false breaks and eventually plummeted down. You know, we found support at 150. We went up and basically tested, you know, the bottom of that range as drawn. Got that big bearish and golfing candlestick. So, you know, with the benefit of hindsight, talking about kind of strategies, you can use this with, of course, having a sell order there. Looks great, like I said, with the benefit of hindsight, because it worked perfectly, but it doesn't. You know, we've got room to go right up into the top of this zone. So, you know, you're risking multiple hundred pips if you're selling right there. Whereas what you could have done, perhaps, sell on a break of the low there, or even just wait for that candlestick to complete, sell at the low, still would have been fine, or wait for that and a little pullback, because you can see that that pullback finished at that low there. So, you know, we bounced off this rising trend line, hit off that low, and then eventually broke. So, with the British pound, I mean, actually the Bank of England when they first met, and we do have Carney speaking twice this week, actually. So, good room for some potential moves in the British pound, especially heading into this 150 level, which is, you know, this is key multi-year support. The last Bank of England meeting was actually a bit more to the hawkish side. At least that was the interpretation of markets at the time, and that was part of why we broke above these moving averages, and we were looking better at that point. But we ran into this longer-term technical selling point, and it was just the strength of the dollar that took over. But still, you know, we may not necessarily break the lows here, even though the euro is crashing down. The pound is actually getting demand against the euro, and the Bank of England a bit more hawkish recently. Basically just kind of say, you know, the difference between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank at the moment is the interpretation of the effect of all prices. You know, Bank of England is basically saying, this is transitory, the UK economy is doing fine, and you know, once this oil price thing is out of the way, CPI is going to head back up to our 2% target for inflation, whereas the European Central Bank are a bit more sanguine about it. Obviously, the eurozone economy is not faring so well, and they also have the likes of Greece to contend with. But certainly some, you know, we've all got a bit of a rally off, you know, maybe just off these, perhaps just off that original low. You can see it matches up pretty nicely. You know, this was essentially a false break. As you can see, no, you know, not necessarily a coincidence that we bounced off there. You know, that's where each false break held down below there, but then eventually this candlestick was the beginnings of this move up here, showing some strength when we should have been breaking lower. So, finding some support here, but really I guess it is just that low that's key. And, you know, there's definite opportunities down here and depending on how we react in and around that. So, those Carney speeches, I think are probably the big ones. We also have UK industrial production on Wednesday. So, the tank for about 15 minutes or so now, and it's all on the currencies. So, let's switch over to indices. First, getting to the UK 100. Obviously, it's been quite historic of late with the FTSE. We've traded into new all-time highs. So, those of you who have been attending this webinar regularly, I'm tripping over my words here, will know how much I've talked about the 6900 level and it's obvious to anyone, but still it was just, it had to be entered every time. We've traded above that, but haven't really fared too well having done so. So, you know, this is the big line. It's, you know, we've all got it the way I draw my charts on the CMC market. It's already got the round numbers pinned in for you so you don't need to draw it. That's why there's that gray line. We obviously moved above it. You can see inside bar, break above, false break, close below, well, close at the lower end of that bar. It's a kind of a fake-out higher and then a bearish and golfing. So, together with opening on the outside of this rising wedge, which you can see better on the daily chart, doesn't bode too well actually for the FTSE. It doesn't look like we're getting a good follow-through on the chart at the moment. You know, just because of the general strength of equities, it's always pretty risky to go short. But perhaps if you are long, you know, there's a couple of warning signs here that, you know, the upside might be a bit limited for the sign being. You know, a couple of warning signs, the trend is just still generally higher. So, you know, it's a matter of weighing up those two factors. But for me though, if you look a bit more, I'm just trying to expand out this chart a bit. You can see here we had this grinding in above. This new high formed, pushed right into it, but just weren't able to close above. And we kind of made this low down here towards this low. So, right now we're still, you know, we've moved below this low, but really it's this one that was the important one. And that's what bounced off again. So, we're still in sideways mode. So, we've broken this rising wedge. But, you know, we could trade up to the top of the sideways range and then still open up higher prices again. So, that's distinctly possible. But if we do trade up higher into that wedge again, it'll be interesting to see where that corresponding candlestick closes in proportion to the rising trend line. If we close below it on a retest, that to me would be a strong indication of lower prices. Could only go as low as this low here. But my suspicion is it could drop down to the bottom of this wedge here. Or maybe just even these kind of long wicks that signal quite a lot of demand beneath the 6800. Now, we've got quite a few UK earnings this week. You know, there's any so much information that you can follow when deciding, you know, how to trade the UK 100. But if it is the sole market that you trade perhaps, then of course you do want to know what's fundamentally driving up and down. Of course there are the economic events the likes of the US payrolls report from Friday, the likes of Chinese data overnight. But, you know, we do have the likes Prudential and eShore and G4S on Tuesday, Michael Page, Foxton's, a few well-known names, a home retail group on Thursday, Weatherspoons on Friday. So these kind of well-known names that are probably going to be driving the top or bottom end of the FTSE 100. So it's worth keeping an eye on at the very least. So there's a few questionable signs and actually probably the weakest market at the moment. The FTSE is not looking too good. We've seen a bit of a reversal in the DAX which is probably still the strongest market. The US market is looking the weakest. I'll get to those in a second. Now, we had this. This is just from Friday where we pushed higher on the upcoming prospect of QE but fell back again on that week. It was on the strong US jobs data which implies perhaps a sooner rate hike than was otherwise anticipated. 295,000 jobs created obviously and the expectations were at 240. So it did completely blow away expectations and so a rate hike in June or September is looking increasingly likely. So hence the global markets traded down alongside US. But zooming in here, that was the first, not the first, but the prior all-time high that was made. We saw a pullback down to this zone here, held above that little dip and pushed right up again into a new all-time high. Unsurprisingly bounced right off that round number 11,600 but that's a shooting star pattern as I mentioned in the chart for him here but that previous peak is perfectly acting as support and we're getting rebound higher. This is QE right here taking place. It's German bonds that are being bought and Germany's the strongest economy in Europe so it's a natural place to want to park their money benefiting from this central bank intervention. So you know, pretty strong market goes without saying in the German Dapster moment it's just a matter of picking your spots at the moment. At some point we'll get a bigger pullback but it doesn't look like it's quite happening yet. Now I mentioned the US markets I've got the US 30 open right here. The S&P looks very similar, the SPX 500 looks very similar. Now in the great scheme of things we're still looking good. It's still above even the 21 week moving average. You can see this 55 or 50 however you want to draw it. Weekly moving average has been underpinning as far nicely. We're in that rising channel. I've just drawn out on the breakout here based on this candle and it corresponds to that load that we've kind of already tested but this is a pretty massive, again, a false break higher. You know, a few people who couldn't caught out with buy orders which, you know, on previous occasions works. You know, a break above there, good. A break above there, you have to ride that out but then no good. But then just haven't really made too much progress since that peak made in November just a little bit higher each time and now a big old engulfing candlestick. So we're at this, if we zoom down to the daily again, it's a situation where we closed at this low. So potential for a bounce first. You know, a good opportunity would be at that prior low for re-entering the market perhaps to the short side. You know, with the knowledge that above there probably cancels it. But again, it's that idea that, you know, longer term the trend is up. It's a risky, but to me, given that bearish engulfing candlestick, you know, it's a risky buying at the moment as well. It's going for a better opportunity at lower prices. So should we actually follow through when we open U.S. markets which should actually be an hour earlier today and for the rest of this week until the UK switches to British summertime U.S. clocks have already changed. So you open at U.S. markets to be 1.30 p.m. GMT. So in an hour's time we get U.S. markets opening and so we'll have to see whether we continue that move from Friday. We've got this 55-day moving average support. This is kind of low here. I wouldn't call that particularly significant what I've got the line is down here. You know, that's a potential line in the sand and there is this long-term box type term support area beginning of this support zone down here. You could get a retest to that. That's a confluence of a couple of areas of support to me. As I mentioned, a bit light on U.S. data and the corporate earnings season is largely out of the way. You know, one of the big things of note, this doesn't happen until next week on the 18th is that Apple joins the Dow Jones. But I did post a little bit of an insight today just finding the idea that far from wanting to be sure Apple, but just, you know, until, because Samsung's S6 just came out, until we do get a bit more concrete information as to how popular the new watch is going to be, perhaps a bit of a chance for a pullback in Apple. Apple's got such massive market capitalization. It's almost as Apple does the market does. And so, you know, a dip in price in Apple, I think, would weigh on overall investor sentiment in the U.S. and could pull markets down a bit. And it's just an idea at the moment that in U.S. they're getting closer to a rate hike, a far cry from QE with the government or central bank buying assets and supporting the markets. The U.S. is going the other way. It's this kind of divergence, flows out of America into Europe situation, which is driving the DAX higher, the Germany 30 higher, but the Dow Jones and the U.S. 30, as we trade it, just not faring as well. Okay. So we've got a bit of time left here to cover some of the commodities markets. Don't see. Oh, it's actually open the chat window. I've got some note that it's the audience. Okay. I don't see any questions. Obviously, feel free to ask anything about just a particular market or anything I've said. Call it great. Call it rubbish. I'm interested to hear what you have to say. Something I've been following recently is copper. I did a video snapshot, which is on YouTube at the moment on copper. You search on my YouTube channel up in the, you know, CMC TV up here in the market polls. We'll find it. I'm following copper. Now it's kind of its last vestige of support in my mind. Again, a good old rally today. I think largely off this rising trend line support. But as you can see, this was the, it was basically this kind of zone here, which gave us this source of double bottom slash. If you discount that spike, inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern, which we got a good breakout from here, but we ran into this 50% retracement level and tumbled back down partly related to weakness in China, partly related to US dollar strength. I've come down and hit this rising trend line. So below the 21 again, but we're just about above the feet. We're basically in that moving average zone after having broken above it. So it's looking a bit weak at the moment. As you can see, we broke through that low and we're basically coming up and testing that low. So as we speak, you know, this is a potential selling opportunity based on that being support, breaking and coming out back and being resistance. But it's not so obvious. You know, we're not exactly below moving averages. We're in between them and we do have a rising trend line supporting us from beneath. So in other circumstances, that's what you want to see, a break of support, a bounce back, and then a sell down to lower levels. But we're only just, you know, it's not, it'll be a great trade if it comes off, but you've got risk for a move up to here based on this trend line support. So if we close today positively, that does speak well to the possibilities, but particularly if we can close above this low, above that, you know, potential support and resistance, then that would bode well for moving up to the highs again. I'm potentially pushing through up to 283, which you can see corresponds quite nicely with that peak there. And then potentially even 290, which was more like the kind of support from this consolidation area. Good, a minute or two left here. Let's have a look at gold. Now, gold been pretty hard hit, probably the worst hit, even worse than US stocks on that non-fucked payrolls date here today. Basically closed below the bottom of this range. So if we can flip back to the weekly chart. This I think is what we're dealing with. If you draw that, I think we're dealing with this triangle right now. That's not a revolutionary idea. I'm sure we've probably all got the same lines, but basically dealt with a false break here, rallied up, threw a bunch of people off. Myself included thought maybe this was the beginning of a break to at least to that high. But this triangle's capped us right down at the lows again. So, you know, we've broken through that, which I think is the key level, 1180. We're closed below that as of Friday, and it's looking pretty ominous for gold at the moment. Might get a little rally again. There's a similar situation with this weekly chart. We've got this bearish engulfing pattern, and then we can see it better from the daily chart, where these, you know, where these two spikes took place. If we could get up to there, I think there would be a lot of selling interest, but we may not even get there. There's 1180. So, as I mentioned, it's a key level. We might get a push just below that, perhaps, and then roll over from there. You can see in the RSI as well. We were looking good. We had that tweezer bottom pushed up, but then just the confluence of moving averages. This previous supply zone here, that peak, and on the RSI, this 40 levels been capping us and falling right back down to the oversold zone. So, I moved back up to 30. We'd probably correspond with that 1180. Right back up to 40 again. It's possible, but we're still in a sort of range trade, so it's approaching potential value areas, but to me, it looks like we're kind of rolling through and I suspect we're going to break the lows. Okay. And just a quick look at oil. The last update that I did was on WTI. I just mentioned in the chat from here just that all the trending action's gone from oil at the moment. You can kind of see, with the benefit of hindsight, at least, which levels have been working here. This sell-off just relates to this little peak here. We reached that peak from the 19th and sold off again, but it's not too significant. Really, when we get back up to 54, we get down to 44, where the more obvious opportunities are. This kind of interim support reform did 47-ish, which could offer some opportunity again, but given that we didn't rally to the top again at 44 before a retest to the low, it suggests to me at this point either we are going to head to the top next or if we do touch the low, we could actually drop down again to 44 again. I think everyone knows the overall dynamics in the situation with oil at the moment. Over-supply, as we see from U.S. Inventory's data, but a lack of demand, as we're seeing from the likes of a 20% drop in imports in China. Certainly, it's good to break the lows, but we're in this kind of base, we're in a range trading mode at the moment, and even if we do eventually break, I'd imagine at least we get some sort of bounce off these lows here, because a few people are calling the bottom of the ball now, so that might attract some buying interest down here. Maybe we won't even get there. Maybe we'll break the highs. If we do break the highs, that makes things a bit more interesting, because I think we could then be moving more into sort of an upwardly biased market. Okay, that's it. That's all done. I hope I've covered the most important events. I haven't looked at the New Zealand dollar today, but it is worth mentioning that we do have the New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday night. For those who are, it would affect you if you're trading the Aussie dollar, as well, likely. There's quite a bit of China data this week. We've already had the trade data over the weekend. We've got CPI data tonight, and Chinese industrial production and retail sales data on Tuesday nights. That could be a potential headwind, for example, for the German DAX, which is pretty over-extended at the moment, trading on the QE trade. This China data either going to accelerate it because the numbers are better than expected, or I would say maybe a lot more likely is that the numbers come in a bit weak and suggest weaker global growth, and that could be a headwind for equities. I think currencies and commodities are largely going to be trading off the strength of the US dollar, and the big one for that is the retail sales on Thursday. Thanks a lot for attending, everybody. Good luck with trading. Just a little signing off.