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Last week, they only put Fed interest rate decision at 2pm on Wednesday and I totally missed it and I just brushed right by it so I had no idea the FOMC was going on until Monday or Tuesday. So I felt stupid with that. But usually market watch, they put FOMC 2pm and then also put press conference 230 right after that. They actually didn't have that so I just totally missed it. And now to mention the fact, we already had so much data stacked this week. We had non-farm payrolls, we had a bunch of earnings, so the data was just stacked this week and I just brushed right by it so I didn't even see the FOMC in the economic calendar last week when we went over the video last time. But last week, we had a pretty good list. I mean, SQ and coin did really good on Monday and I signaled a good take profit area on Monday. And the watchlist channels, make sure you tune in to that channel for updates on these setups and all that good stuff throughout the week. Even if I don't like them anymore, I'll also comment on them saying that I don't like it anymore. So I tried to put an unbiased opinion into it, whether it works out or not. So make sure to check out the updates and stuff like that if you tune in and you are in the Discord. You can see them all updates and good profit taking areas and all that good stuff in real time. But before we get into our individual setups, we're going to go over the economic calendar real quick. So Monday, we do have S&P Final US Services PMIs. So PMIs always have the potential to move the market. Pay attention to that at 9.45. And it looks like we have a Fed Speaker at 10 a.m. It's going to be Ghoulsby. He's coming on TV. We also have ISM Services. This can definitely move the market. And as well, another Fed Speaker at 2 p.m. It's going to be Fed Bostic, giving welcoming remarks. Not sure to what event really any Fed Speakers right now. I feel like, you know, the market's going to be listening. So maybe pay attention to that at 2 p.m. And then Tuesday, we have a bunch of more Fed Speakers literally all day. Looks like we have Loretta Mester. We have Kashkari, Collins and Harker all speaking at different times. So that'll be interesting. Wednesday is just going to be more Fed Speakers looks like. And then we also have consumer credit at three. This is a hit or miss if it moves the market. It usually doesn't from what I've seen, but still pretty good to pay attention to. And then Thursday, just our usual initial job was claims wholesale inventories. I don't think this is going to move the market much. And then another Fed Speaker and another Fed Speaker on Friday. So really, there's not really any big data sets this week at all. Other than the PMIs and the ISM Services on Monday, I would say these are going to be probably the biggest data sets. But we do have a lot of Fed Speakers and that could come out with a lot of contradicting information on if we're going to get rate cuts. If we're not going to get rate cuts, everybody's got a different opinion when it comes to economics and the market. So I mean, all of them, you know, have a mind of their own. And that kind of brings volatility sometime in the market, especially for algorithms and stuff that they hear something that they don't like. They automatically start selling or they automatically start buying, depending on how hawkish or dovish it sounds coming from a Fed Speaker. So pay attention to that all week. That's about it. Really just PMIs and ISM Services this week. That's going to be the big ones. And on to the seasonality this week, it's just going to be February 5th to the 9th. You can see we actually kind of averaged some chop here. There's really nothing in the last 20 years, kind of giving a crazy setup here. Summarized profit at 4%, with winning trades only at 50%. So nothing crazy here. Average yearly profit only about a quarter of a percent less than that. So this little five day period really don't have anything significant, which wouldn't surprise me because the markets already ran so much. We just had a big impulse move recently and I might need to consolidate and that kind of aligns with what we see historically here. If we do go into that consolidation phase, that would make total sense. Given how big the move was recently. And then next week, you can see that's when we start a really big upthrust going up into the 16th, which is also the monthly options expiration. So this is the 20 year data set. We could change it down to 15. And you can see it's a little bit different. The upthrust is a little bit better. Winning trades actually goes up. Average yearly profit goes up just a little bit. Summarized profit, not so much. And if we go to 10 years, it's probably going to be somewhat similar. It looks like 60% winning trades for shorts. So it looks like this is actually averaging some downside for the last 10 years. But keep in mind, this is less time. So I feel like the 20 year is always a pretty good one for seasonality. But if you want to focus on more recent trends, obviously, you know, the 10 years pretty good as well. But, you know, 20 year does have more data and I feel like it holds a little bit more true in terms of seasonality. You can see average yearly profit for 10 years is actually negative. Summarized profit at 0%. Nothing too special here for seasonality. A little pullback at worst, chop at best. Obviously the market can defy those odds, but that's just what we're seeing for seasonality. Nothing crazy for the trend. And on to the individual tickers. We only have three this week is very hard to find setups again. Last week, we only had three. We had SQ coin and Neo, only two of them actually played out pretty well. Neo really didn't have that good of a run or anything. It's actually still kind of going down a little bit, but it really didn't go too far down at all. It's kind of just staying in the same spot. Ended up buying the dip on Friday. I got some calls for March because it seems like a pretty good discount. They're still bringing in pretty big amount of revenue. And I wouldn't say they're as shitty as other EV companies. I would say, you know, Tesla, Neo and X-Ping are kind of the top dogs in terms of EV right now, but obviously Tesla is always the best buy because they are kind of dominating the market share. But anyways, on to FCX. You can see it's actually breaking out of this downtrend. We got a test one, a test two, three, four, tried to reject that five here just a little bit and now trying to break out finally after kind of stalling out here at this line. If we add the moving averages into the mix, we do have the nine and 21 combo here, the nine and 21 EMA holding well. Price is closing over both of those. We have a good reaction off the 50 here and we still have price closing over the 200. So we are over all the moving averages on FCX, which is good. That means the trend is still somewhat in order. Obviously, it starts falling back under all of these. That's when it gets weak. As you can see here, this is when it got really weak. We had a couple of days of attempt of weakness under here when it got under the 200. But once it reclaimed, really strong upside. So these moving averages are respected pretty well. You have support here, support here. So the 200 is a good longer term trend gauge. And then your 50 is your more medium term. Nine and 21 is going to be your short terms. But this is pretty straightforward. It's just a breakout trade. Obviously, you have the KDGA going positive too. So that's a good sign short term price targets. You're probably just going to have to go off recent resistance. It's going to be at 41 right at this level. So you got to watch that price will need to clear that in order to start getting up to 41 85 and so on so forth. And there's also a big supply here. Big supply zone from a rejected prior. We'll need to get over that eventually as well. But I would say that overall, this would probably be a good price target if it can get back up there. But it will need to clear the short term levels that 41, 41 85 and then it can get up into supply right there. So FCX, I'm looking at calls. This one is basically just follows the copper market. So if you want to look at copper futures, you could go to ticker symbol HG and you will find the copper futures and as well as they have a small bit of their business in gold as well. So you probably want to see the US dollar come back down a little bit and gold rally, but it's mostly copper. So it's going to follow the copper futures a lot. So that's for SCX looking at calls needs to break over 41 needs to break over 41 85 in order to get to supply. All right, not to Intel. So they actually kind of bomb their earnings and it's been trading for about one, two, three, four, five, about six days since earnings. So now that it's kind of traded around for over a week since earnings, I feel like you can probably start looking at some trades on this because lots of times after earnings, markets will kind of go into consolidation. Sometimes if they do good enough or bad enough, they'll just keep tanking or keep running. But lots of times you will see earnings kind of consolidate the day after and really the week after Netflix is going through it right now. They had a good report. They've been consolidating for like a week straight Intel. You can see not any crazy moves or anything really since earnings. It's kind of stayed in the somewhat general area of where it closed day after earnings. So now that it's kind of settled, we can start looking for a trade. Maybe this 41 17 looks pretty good as support. You can see the general area tried to hold pretty good. We have a pretty nice buyer's wake here. You have a nice lower shadow wake trying to push up. That shows a little bit of by pressure. And another thing we have is a fresh gap. I feel like eventually people are going to try to, you know, trade it back up to the gap. Lots of times it's smarter to wait for it to get inside the gap. Once it starts closing inside the gap, you could trade to the upside. That's another way to go about it. But I really like to find dip buys and discounts in the market. It brings less drawdown risk. You can find really nice cost premium and as well, I'm just more comfortable with it than, you know, trading breakouts like this or anything like that. I like buying the dips, buying at the movie averages, buying at support, something like that. And Intel here, we do have that pretty good support at the 41s. Ideally, just looking for a move back up to gap resistance. It's going to be at 45 20s, maybe 45 30s. And that's about it. And then maybe you could look for another trade as well. Once it starts closing inside the gap, you could do that as well. But for now, use the gap resistance as a price target. You can probably even use the nine and 21 EMA for price targets as well. It probably will need to get back over this 50 right here. It'll probably need to start closing back over that. If it closes back over that, the show strength and it'll probably try to push higher, but it will need to start closing over that, I think, to show strength because right now people are running with the other semis like AMD and video, SMCI, TSM, those are all doing pretty good. Intel is kind of having in mind of its own. It did have a really nice run and now kind of getting that initial pullback, but I wouldn't say this has sold off enough to be a dead cat bounce or anything. But this 41 looks pretty good to hold. So that's why I want to see it bounce and have back up to gap resistance. So that's for Intel looking at calls. Looks like a pretty nice did buy. We'll need to start closing back over that 50 EMA first and we could see some upside and for our last individual ticker looking at UNG here. So I actually got this idea because I was looking at the spot natural gas price. So this is the spot natural gas price. It's a little bit different from the UNG, a little bit different from the futures. This is what you pay if you want it delivered right now at this very second. That's what spot price is. So you can see the spot price is actually at 206 area, which is really big support. Honestly, it bounced pretty hard from right here. Had a nice little run up into the 350s and now I'm still trying to hold. We haven't really seen a break under, you know, with force or really with any conviction yet. So obviously buyers keep showing up at this general area and it looks like a pretty good did buy. The only problem is it's very warm where I'm staying right now. I'm in the south and we've had pretty much weather in the 60s and 70s lately, despite it being January and winter. That's a pretty warm weather. We did have one really big cold spell and I think the whole world basically did and lots of the US because that's when we kind of got this little push up a couple of weeks ago. So that's the only downside with natural gas. You're hoping for cold weather. You're hoping for demand for natural gas and you can't really get that when it's really warm outside. And sometimes the weather man can't even get the weather right. So you are kind of trading volatility when it comes to natural gas. It's very volatile. It's very uncertain and it moves with the weather. But as you can see, it's pretty discounted. I mean, it's calm all the way back down to its December low is basically after just having a huge run. And I really wanted to trade it again because we did have a trade on this. I had shares and also options. I ended up closing for profit. I had one trade that ended up losing and I was actually looking at this spot to buy and I was like, nah, I'm going to wait. It's a little bit warm out and we're not really seeing any crazy forecast for any coldness. And I'm glad I waited because now we're all the way back down to December lows. And I'm just looking at this as it did buy. And obviously, if it starts breaking under 18 or you see spot natural gas starting to break and close under 206, you could change your mind, wait for it to get back over and then get back in. That's one way you can use risk management for this. Use the spot natural gas price. It starts breaking under 206. Wait for it to close a couple times. If it does that, you could look at something else. But otherwise, this is pretty straightforward. Just a dip by looking pretty discounted. A little bit oversold. Actually, a little bit is an understatement because if we zoomed out, you can see this thing has just gotten slammed. So definitely a contrarian play and not for the week. Definitely going to want to have some balls for this and be prepared to deal with drawdown. There's natural gas is just crazy. So that's for UNG. I'm looking at calls, probably March expiration minimum. Probably even go with April to deal with drawdown risk. Maybe even buy shares if you don't want to deal with the options, theta or anything like that. Otherwise, I would go at the money a couple months out. They'll give it time to fart around at lows, deal with any drawdown risk, et cetera. And on to the indexes, we're going to go over spy first. So last week, we did get a pullback, pretty big one on FOMC day, but it got bought back up instantly, arguably because it pulled into the nine and 21 combo. We never started closing under the nine and 21 combo. I've been mentioning for the past couple of weeks, you just want to keep using this nine and 21 combo as a trend gauge. And there's also a pretty recent trend line here. You got to test one, test two, basically pulled in for test three, and that held up. So the trend is clear. It's still holding nine and 21 combo is fine. The only thing you have going against you here, if you're bullish, you have the K2J going negative, probably from Wednesday here, this big red bar. Otherwise, it was able to break and close a new 52 week high and a new all time high as well. So like I said, last week, there's really no setup here or anything that's special, unless it pulls into the one day nine and 21 EMA combo like I did last week. That gives you a chance to buy the dip. Otherwise, not a great spot to enter. And I'll basically keep standing by that, you know, buying at the movie gaverages instead of buying breakouts like this. You just get better price action and lots of times you get more meat on the bone. If you, you know, buy a little bit lower and sell high. And honestly, I'm willing to miss out the opportunity cost, any of that willing to risk that by not buying up here, I'd rather buy, you know, discounted on a dip. It could be an intradip for a day trade. As long as it's a dip, I'd feel a lot better about that than buying, you know, at all time highs or 52 week high breakout. And literally every time it's pulled into the MAs, it just proves why you get more meat on the bone, you get a better move and you get cheaper premium. So in order for a spy to be bearish, obviously, since, you know, the trend is obvious here, it's bullish. I mean, there's no denying that if you want it to be bearish, you're definitely going to wait for it to get back under 491.62, which is the short term peak. If they can start breaking down that and closing under that does a short term move back down to the trend line at least probably about 485. Obviously, it gets higher as the trend line goes, but overall, if you really want to be safe and be patient, wait for the trend line break, just keep it simple. If the trend line breaks and starts closing under, it'll probably bounce back to have a short term, have a back test, and then maybe go lower. And that's probably when we'll see that February pullback the 16th and so on. So forth down into March, this little pullback right here, it's pretty big and we average that pullback on the 10 year on the 15 year and the 20 year data set. It all looks the same. So February to March is usually a pretty weak month for the stock market. I mean, it just can't go up forever. Eventually people want to take profit and as well, if you want to buy the dips, eventually they want a discount. That's what makes the weakness good in March, because eventually, you know, it does have a pretty good seasonality run, March and so on. So forth. So definitely don't short up here until, you know, it breaks the trend line. Obviously, you could try to call the top if you wanted to comes with more risk, obviously, because you're just shorting into a high. You have no pattern. You're just kind of guessing that it could reject here rather than waiting for it to close back under 491. Waiting for it to break the trend line, waiting for it to break the 9 and 21 EMA, you know, wait for one of those three, either a close under resistance, a close under the moving averages or a close under the trend line. Just keep it simple and don't get bearish until it does that. That's just one way to keep it simple, but otherwise there's really no setups here for the week. Right now, as we speak, at least. I mean, obviously if it pulls into the moving averages, that's always a pretty good area to try to buy the dip. I did it last week. So did it a couple of weeks ago here as well. Here as well. So that's always your best spot to get cheap premium and as well get a lot of meat on the bone. So with a breakout like this, it's likely we could see some consolidation. It wouldn't surprise me. And according to the seasonality, like I said, we just average a little bit of consolidation, nothing crazy. So I don't expect a big pullback either or anything. Definitely just going to keep the melting pattern going, but just be careful up here, guys. I mean, there's really no point of chasing all the way up here. Wait for it to dip and then you can get a better entry. And usually if you're asking if it's too late, it's usually already too late. So just be careful, guys. As for spy, wait for it to let it consolidate. Let it do its thing up here or, you know, wait for it to close under resistance. The movie averages or trend line and on to the breadth indicator. This is S&P stocks above their 50 day moving average. And we're actually going to look at it in a different way today to what we'll do. We'll go back to spy. We'll get rid of the drawings. We're going to add this indicator to the same chart. So we got S5FI here. It's the same indicator. S&P stocks above their 50 day moving average. We're going to hit new price scale and compare. So as you can see, there's a general trend where it follows each other pretty well. There's a good correlation. See if the orange line, this is S&P stocks above their 50 day and you have spy with the regular candles. As you can see, when breadth is doing good and with stocks above their 50 day moving average is going up, the S&P is also going up. When it goes down, it usually follows as well. The short term bounce and breadth also had a short term bounce in the market. So on and so forth. But one thing we have going different right now, we have a divergence. So we have breadth going down all the way from this point in January, while the market has been going up. So we've noticed this divergence the past couple of weeks, but there hasn't really been a big collapse in breadth or anything. I mean, this is not a big pullback in breadth. I don't think if you look at this, it's still holding up relatively good, especially all the way from the lows. But now we're starting to get that more obvious divergence here. And we have a couple of weeks of data to prove it all the way from Jan 5th all the way until now. It's almost a month. That is a month, actually. So we got a month long divergence. We got breadth going lower. So stocks above their 50 day movie average going lower, which means less stocks above their 50 day movie average while the spike goes higher, which means it's probably large caps, mega caps carrying the market, the big techs, you know, Apple, Amazon meta just had a 21% day on Friday. That's arguably why we went up despite the DXY being up almost 1% yields being up 4%. We had a lot of bearish indicators on Friday, but we kept going up and that's likely because of those big tech earnings. So we got seven to 10 stocks carrying the whole trend right now. What we have a majority of the market trending back under their 50 day movie average, that's signaling weakness. The only downside with using indicators like this is you don't really know if it's a lager or a leader. So we don't know if this breadth indicator is giving us an early warning sign, but it's worth paying attention to, in my opinion, I would argue that they're both strong indicators, right? You got the top 10 stocks doing really good and that's carried the market for a long time now. But as well, we have most of the market as a whole trending lower as well, which is also a good indicator of how the market really is and how the trend really is. So in my opinion, this is just another reason to be careful, but you usually want to see breadth moving up with the market at the same time. I feel like the market is strongest when you have stocks above their 50 day going higher also with the market at the same pace. And likewise, when it moves down as well, we want to see stocks above their 50 day going lower to see the market go lower, as you can see in this trend right here. It's basically moving the same. You have to bounce here, move lower, short term bounce here, move lower. You had a pretty good run up here, moves lower. As you can see, it follows it pretty good, except for this last month. So that's worth paying attention to in my opinion. That could be a warning signal. So just be careful guys. I mean, the proof is in the pudding, right? You got breadth kind of collapsing here. I wouldn't say aggressively or anything like that, but it's moving lower compared to actual S&P, which is going higher. So we will find out if this was a leading indicator, you know, for a pullback. And in my opinion, just off the past data here, looking at it, usually breadth is going to follow the market just as good as it follows it up. So pay attention to it, keep it in mind and be really careful with the spy up here, especially for calls. And on to the QQQ. It's actually kind of got a similar pattern, but QQQ did not break a new 52 week high. It didn't close a new one at least. And it didn't close a new all time high on Friday compared to spy, which did close at a new all time high and also close at a new 52 week high. So tech just lagged just a little bit. But overall, I mean, the pattern is similar, right? You got this big uptrend line, you got a test one, a test two, a test three pulled in here almost for test for it and touch it directly. But, you know, the trend is still in order. Another thing, it pulled into the 9 and 21 EMA the same way the spy did and it bounced off that as well. So the levels are pretty straightforward this week. Just this 429.85 you could probably round that up to 430. If it rejects 430, you could see a short term pullback or consolidation, you know, before it tries to break out. But overall, the uptrend is still holding. You just want to watch this 429.85. Obviously, if it can break over that, that will give a good, you know, short term day trade to the upside. As you can see with spy here, once it broke over this, was that 491, had a pretty good push up and you could get a similar breakout trade or day trade similar to spy did on Friday. And that's one way to still be able to buy high up here is if you're trading the 52 week high breakouts or just scalping them. As long as you're not, you know, going long, you know, 30, 40 days out all the way up here, I feel like you're not going to get screwed too bad. Just make sure you're managing and, you know, getting out by the end of the day. If you want to be bullish and still trade calls up here, just be flat by the end of the day to deal with any, you know, draw down risk or overnight risk. Because eventually people are going to want to take profit and you will see it come lower. I'm definitely going to be watching scalps off this 430 looking for puts something short term, you know, just day trade, nothing crazy. Obviously, we have no confirmation of a big rejection off here for, you know, swing trade. And for swing trade as well, I'd probably want to see it breaking under, you know, the trend line to keep it simple. Once it starts breaking under the trend, that gives me a shot to go, you know, 30, 40 days out on some puts and hold it overnight. And I would sleep better knowing that it's, you know, broken the trend. Obviously, it can reclaim, you know, it can break under reclaim lots of times. Once it breaks, you get a nice flush, head back to the next structure and you can pretty much just figure out what to do next from there. But that's really it for QQQ this week. It's still bullish, but we did not close over that 430 or 429, 85, which kind of tells me this could still act as a short term resistance level. As you can see, there's just a small reaction channel to it towards the end of the close. So just watch this level, mark it on your chart. Obviously, if the futures gap up overnight and it gaps over this, just be careful. Wait for it to fall back on there before trying a short or anything like that. Just definitely mark this 430 in case it turns into a big resistance point. So that's the video guys. Hope you guys enjoy it. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe to our XJ YouTube channel. I feel like the setups are a little bit more boring this week because we really don't have any like good big text in there like last week. We had like SQ and coin that did pretty good on Monday. We don't really have any of those exciting high growth names in there this week. Lots of them are already moved a lot and it was pretty hard to find discounts this week or really find anything that didn't already run too much. But hopefully these three will do okay. Obviously with UNG, just be a little bit more careful. Natural gas is very volatile by time on it to deal with drawdown risk. I would say SCX is probably my favorite looking one. It's confirmed that downtrend breakout, but we will need to see the market and copper kind of go higher as well. So pay attention to the copper futures. But that's all I got for you guys. I'm going to get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff. So I love you and I'm out.