 Okay, very good morning to you. It's Thursday the 15th of April. Hope everything is going well and going to do the usual Kind of routine. I'm going to get you up to speed. What happened? Just kind of summary from yesterday close on Wall Street over right in Asia pack and then a quick review of the headlines and in the View for the day ahead I'll leave the kind of technical view of the charts to the guys and amplify live in the community to go over So I'm going to predominantly focus on the news aspects of this morning but just having a quick check across asset classes to look at the overall sentiment this morning at the European Open and relatively calm Not too much movement seeing in the major FX pairs and Euridora cable, which are broadly flat at the moment Elsewhere T notes are unchanged and US equity in the index futures Very marginally higher after the generally lower clothes that we had yesterday So as a consequence the DAX is is basically flat interesting Level short-term for the DAX of potential resistance that previous era of support this week Turn now resistance during the Asia pack trading hours. You got the pivots at just above We're just keeping an eye on there in the DAX But the close on Wall Street Actually, we finished down 0.4% in the S&P and the down was a slight outperformer up Just shy of two tenths and as that under-beformed and was down 1.3 1% I believe coin base as well after initial pop on the open actually declined as well fairly substantially That comes as well with Bitcoin just coming off a little bit from those initial highs Bitcoin futures have traded in excess of 65,000 last 24 hours training back down around 63 and a half at the moment But I don't really see too much really of but of negativity behind that I think it was just a little bit of by the rumor sell the facts going ahead of the bullish nature of In front of coin base and just thinking at the Bitcoin future here quite an area of Potential support to be eyed at around the 62,000 level that being the peak that we had back on the 14th of March The test on the 12th of April before the breakthrough that came through earlier this week on the 13th That's added a support in yesterday afternoon's trade Excuse me The other chart just briefly to mention was oil It really did continue the breakout trend from yesterday And yesterday, of course, we did have to all infantry numbers And we saw domestic infantry's fall for the third week to the lowest since February A much more deeper draw than what was seen in the prior days API all infantry's You've generally got this perception of economic growth going forward OPEC still in play supporting prices as well So that was some technical breaches on some key levels really saw The the oil move open up yesterday and we jumped almost 5% as the biggest move we have since late March In regards to to WCI crude and it holds that move this morning We're trading flat at 63 16 and there is some news I can update you on in regards to Saudi Arabia in Iran As well, which could also be something to keep an eye on with the threat of potential for more bullish price action there but look let's get into it and talk a little bit further about oil then and Gonna transition to Actually before I do let's have a quick wrap about Asia So the US close as I said was mixed on a performance Generally though in the NASDAQ and actually if you look at the percentage changes interestingly It's pretty much It's pretty much the exact Mirror image of the prior days price activity that we had on Tuesday So where the NASDAQ was up about one and a quarter It was down 1.3 yesterday where the Dow was down the third the prior day It was closed up about 210 so all in all actually when you X out some of the initial equity appreciation that we had on the back of the More controlled inflation US CPI increase that we saw and then to yesterday when markets rolled over a little bit net net We're actually pretty flat. So take yourself out of the intraday kind of noise for the moment And in actuality we've really gone nowhere so far So we're still consolidating to a certain degree up and around these Record high levels. We of course as well did have those big banks reporting the first three big ones and reported much higher than expected profits Fueled by just break net growth the investment banking fees buoyant capital markets lower credit cross costs due to the improving economy But the traditional banking business of taking deposits and making loans continue to grow less profitably and Executives did actually warn That the booster earnings for those activities would likely fade going forward and JP Morgan was an underperformer of that The more kind of clean investment banking kind of makeup of goldman's did see them slightly out before but later on today Don't forget you've got Bank of America and city Coming out the latter of course much more exposed on that loan commercial banking side So be interested to see how they perform as well later in terms of Asia Generally a slightly negative tone, but albeit very moderate China was a slight underperformer. There's a couple of things going on in China at the moment in fact Tensions between the US and China lingering amid the US delegation visits of Taiwan and China's military to conduct live fire drills off Taiwan So that's kind of one thing at the moment. It sounds pretty sensational It's not unusual kind of flexing the military muscle ahead of a top tier meeting with US officials But that's one thing secondly China's top officials in Hong Kong have warned that the foreign powers Which attempt to use Hong Kong as a pawn will face countermeasures So continue friction there about the kind of the situation of the Increasing control that the states trying to have on Hong Kong, but also Taiwan and those two issues do link together in this Forming this one China policy view coming out of Beijing as they continue to pursue that kind of objective and then the third thing is overnight Chinese central bank liquidity operations generally saw what What is being deemed as a redraw of liquidity? In the short-term bases in medium-term lending facilities And so those combination of things just leading to a little bit of a weaker tone for China specifically But I don't really think there's much read across into how European US markets going to react on the back of that more of a domestic move I'd say we did have some Aussie employment day to overnight and actually It came in at seventy point seven thousand which was basically double expectations But if you're looking at the Aussie chart this morning, you're probably thinking well one earth is the Aussie fallen At the point of when the data came out So you had a momentary blip higher and we basically sold off and you know as with any piece of economic data It's always prudent to Kind of be aware of the details of why that number, you know one golden rule I used to always tell the analysts that I used to manage in my previous job was that if you ever see a Significant deep standard deviation away, and it's like a piece of data comes out triple quadruple consensus First thing I always used to ask myself was I wouldn't just take it as gospel that that numbers just very strong I'd be questioning it going. Why is it very strong? There must be a reason whether it's a methodology change whether it's a one-time Factor that's lifted it and in this case actually when you get under the bonnet of that very strong employment data in Australia It was solely fueled by part-time workers So in a sense, they're not seen as such a positive in terms of any Consistency in what the workforce will look like going forward. So it's almost like a a misfire if you like and Easy to get caught the wrong side of that trade overnight But going back to some of the news then let's talk about oil Talked about the price breakout yesterday Technicals at play obviously spec speculative momentum traders at play intraday You've had to all inventory numbers overnight as well. The other thing that's kind of just Simmering in the background is ongoing tensions at the moment between the the kind of ongoing friction of Saudi and Iran Now why could there be ongoing friction between Saudi and Iran? well, guess what the US is still trying to find its feet about how it's going to deal with Iran and instead of an outright confrontation of Conflict between Saudi and Iran It gets playing out by Yemen in the south and the Houthi militants based in the west of that country And they start to play out this proxy war by trying to disrupt potentially the Saudi aramco Infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. That's exactly what's happening at the moment. So on two fronts one On the top level the US and Iran will reconvene Indirect talks aimed at reviving their 2015 nuclear deal that said to be taking place on Thursday. So today in Vienna According to the White House. So obviously Maximum negotiating stance you want to put on as much pressure as possible So that the other party feels like they're going to come and cut you a deal So you can see that the timing around the increase of frequency of Houthi militant action on Saudi Comes at a point in time when US and Iranian officials are actually meeting these things do not happen by Coincidence the other thing here is that the UN nuclear watchdog is stated Iran has nearly finished preparations to begin enriching uranium To up to a 60% purity at one of its plants as well again all of this happening at the same time now what's been happening here Overnight is that Saudi Arabia's oil facilities were targeted with drones and missiles for the second time in a week Yemen Yemen's Houthi rebels claiming the attack on the southwestern refinery town of Jassim and Houthis claims similar attacks on Sunday night in the eastern oil terminal of Jubeil on the western city of Jeddah and Just to give you an idea of the lay of the land in Saudi Arabia because This is an important map I think if you're if you're a crude oil trader and if you are going to really understand what a supply shock might look like to be Reactive if there were a piece of breaking news and here then that the two areas that have been targeted here both on Sunday and last night Is Jeddah here and Jassim here on the Red Sea? And you can see how close it is to the actual border here with with Yemen So there's a bit of a reference and context Jeddah is the second most populous city in Saudi Arabia After the capital Riyadh, I think population wise Circa 4.8 kind of million size and just Sam has some significant refining capacity when it comes to Aramco and obviously is situated in kind of the hotbed of the activity of a lot of the the militant friction that's been happening at the moment, so Oil prices at the moment. I mean, they're not spiking on the back of what's happened last night However, it's probably an underlying reason what might help support keep these prices kind of elevated after yesterday's move because quite Typical that after you see an exaggerated Progressive move in an asset price that breaks out and and again deviates away quite substantially from its average day kind of price Fluctuation, it's not that surprising to see some profit-taking But we're not seeing that this morning and the price of oil actually is holding quite nicely above 63 for the time being So yeah, hopefully that all makes a bit sense and as I said later on today the US and Iran will be talking about that nuclear agreement Otherwise, the other thing to mention was Jerome Powell spoke yesterday What did he have to say? Well, he said the Fed will likely taper off its bond purchases before considering raising interest rates They haven't voted on the order, but that is the sense of guidance is what he said So it was a bit of a reference point The kind of policy sequencing that he's referring to is of absolutely no surprise at all Historical precedents and general markets understanding of a monetary policy is that there's there's certain levers to get pulled in a certain order So in this sense then the QE needs to decelerate tapering needs to occur You probably then need a period of then flatlining with no QE actively happening before then rates eventually rise And so he's just kind of reaffirming that that point of separately You did have the latest beige book last night Which is that kind of 12 regional district report on isolation of smaller localized areas and the general takeaway there There's that on a national level Activity is accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April and consumer spending is improving But again, probably fits in lockstep with the vaccination improvements and a general reopening of different states The other thing then is a quick update on J&J Still warrants monitoring at this point in time the US CDC advisory panel decided not to vote on recommendations Regarding the pause on J&J's vaccine stated that they needed more data So as per these headlines and what they're suggesting here the pause that has been seen as lasting days May actually persist for weeks and obviously the longer that takes the more broad the implications would be not just for the US But any other country that is awaiting supply of that particular vaccine So definitely want to to keep an eye on as far as the calendar is concerned for today It's pretty quiet in the UK European morning These latest CPI numbers coming out of Germany and France are final figures So not looking for any market reaction So then really the focal point from a schedule is going to be the US retail sales report and they continue Or initial jobless claims both coming out 130 London time Focusing on the retail sales report Obviously February was a particularly bad number minus 3% Whereas we're expecting an aggressive rebound up to 5.9 and the range is wide The most optimistic is looking for a 12% print today in the month-to-month US retail sales number Couple of important things to be aware of here for one January numbers and retail sales were quite pumped if you remember Chiefly buoyed by the stimulus checks to hit late in the end of 2020 So the fading of that kind of hit in February in combination with very bad weather The kind of great freeze that took hold in North America. So going into March We've kind of got three things the vaccination improvements the reopening which is helping the improvement in the weather conditions Come kind of normalizing after the cold snap that we saw in the prior month And then we've got the $1400 stimulus checks also hitting in that period as well for certain income threshold Individuals and families as well. So that number has a potential high-side Potential shock. I don't think that in itself though is particularly meaningful for the Fed So there's two ways to look at this It could act as a catalyst if we're sat in a particular product at a certain key technical level It could act as like the kind of match that just gets us through then to initiate that price through that level However, will it really influence the Fed? I don't think so even if we get a 12% number I'm not sure how much after the intro date that the Fed are going to sit there and can they realistically say that 12% is sustainable is probably not because of the aforementioned reasons So the Fed would want to see underlying consistency in that data xing out a lot of these anomalies So from a policy perspective, I don't think it's it's going to be too influential from a market moving point of view today It could be quite key And for short-term sentiment into the US session comes alongside jobless claims expected to drop to 700 from 744 previous Other than that we get the US industrial production capitalization at 215 And then a couple of Fed speakers Bostic and daily probably the main ones both voting members the latter at 7 p.m Mary daily is speaking on financial stability and monetary policy However, both of these two individuals have spoken multiple times in recent days and weeks And so not expecting anything really new from them to be quite honest And then as I mentioned earlier Bank of America City coming out pre-market other notable names United Health PepsiCo as well But that is it gonna leave you to it and wish you a good day ahead And I'll catch you in the discord room and Amphi live. Have a good day guys