 Welcome traders, today's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. I'm just going to give it another 30 seconds here before we get going. If you can hear me, the audio is clear and you can see the tip mail welcome screen. Could you just type a Y in the chat box so that I know we are good to go. Ten seconds at the top of the hour. Okay, let's hit record and get this show on the road. If you can, with respect to questions, if you can hold your questions to the end of the session, I'll open up a Q&A at the end. So you'll have an opportunity to ask any questions then. Thanks very much. Okay, so before we get going with today's chart analysis, as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's content, the views and information expressed by me are solely mine and they are not indicative of or those held by Tick Mill UK Limited or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time today, a brief introduction to me. My name is Patrick Manly and after I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consultant firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit consulting startup that was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally at times overnight. So I started to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the SMB500 or probably more appropriately day gambling. And after some early beginners luck, I managed to rack up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I basically began to average down into losing positions, before my gains and then ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. So this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience in the state. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. This was a time during which I was not just my technical game, researching and developing strategies extensively back and forward testing them, all of which were underpins by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most and most importantly, I made what was the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused purely on financial gains to becoming process orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated, and you have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing in the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. And my focus is on the next hundred trades, because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my trading edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've been managing investing capital through a managed account service, also delivering annual positive returns as you can see on the screen. I'm responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. From 2010, I've been mentoring private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to provide consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert, exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TICMA. My other passion project, and sorry I should mention here, you can register on the TICMA blog. If you drop your email address in there, you can get automatic updates of my daily market outlook. I have a daily technical analysis and setups that I'm watching in video format, chart hits or the Elliot Wave updates, and you can post those by either following me on LinkedIn or through Instagram, Patrick Munley, FX. My next passion project is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. At FX Careerswap, we don't just offer development and funding to retail trading talent. We work on developing mindsets through a structured program that culminates in the possibility of managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. So if you're in touch with the trade desk in London, the number is there on the screen at the moment, or equally if you want to drop them an email and they'll come back to you in a timely fashion explaining more about what we do at FXcareerswap and how you could get involved. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from and now we can jump into the charts. I can see there are a couple of questions being asked. Making notes of your questions and like I say at the end of the presentation I'll open up for a period of Q&A where I can answer the questions. Okay, so let's jump into the charts. The first chart I want to look at here is the S&P 500. This is a weekly chart and since we made the low, the post pandemic low in the S&P last March, we have been moving in 24 week cycles, plus or minus one week, and those cycles have basically preceded a corrective phase, normally lasting three to four weeks. And the next cycle completion actually comes in next week at the 19th of July, so plus or minus one. So we are just entering a window now where we could see a corrective move in the S&P, you'll note we've got significant momentum divergence, which is obviously something I pay attention to. So this it's worth knowing that we were just in a window here where we could see a bit of an uptick in terms of volatility. I go into the daily chart, I share this chart this morning, looking for a pullback here to test this 42-44 area. It's the monthly pivot, we've got weekly range for 42-68, and we've also got this ascending trend line support. So this would be the fourth test of this trend line. And for those who work with me on a regular basis, you'll know that I pay close attention to third tests. Fourth tests do offer a higher probability of the potential of actually breaking. So if we don't find buyers stepping in here, we're having a bit of an outside reversal day to day, potentially developing obviously we need to see where we close. If buyers don't step in in this zone, and it could be that we're in for a deeper corrective move, and we can start to think about this type of pattern developing, whereby we take out the trend line support, and then we ultimately put in a three-way corrective move, which could see us turning down into the 40-39 area in terms of the S&P here. So we really want to pay very close attention if this selling persists on how price responds at this trend line, and if we do get a break, then we know where we're looking for in terms of targets to downside. And then what we'd be anticipating, once we've got a first leg in play in terms of the correction, then we'll be looking for a second leg to the downside. So we want to just keep a really close eye on this monthly period of 4 to 2.6. If we drop down to the intraday time frame, the hourly time frame, we can see that we're still weakening here. And we didn't really get any divergence into that new low using the intraday hourly momentum. So there's the potential for us to make new lows again here. And in terms of where we'd, in terms of the target, like I say, we'd be looking for a move initially here, we have weekly range support, which we'll put us in and see. So we'd be looking for a move down to 42.65. We could see some profit taking from there, but this leg to the downside certainly now has impulsive qualities. We could be setting up here for this new load to put in place, and that will complete this initial impulse leg. And then what we'd be looking for would be the opportunity to play a corrected move. So ideally we break it lower, put in a new load, and then we see this three-wave corrected pattern. And we could be back in testing this prior support zone as resistance. And that's where I'd be looking to re-engage on the short side for those that work with me now that I've been short the S&P and covered short positions this morning. So I'm looking now for a corrected move to play out and then the opportunity to get back in on the short side in terms of the S&P. The other trade that I've been running and talked about quite a lot recently is this VIX position. VIX obviously is basically a barometer of risk in the market, often referred to as a markets insurance policy. And we were trading down into this 15 level, and I highlighted to the traders I work with that I wanted to be long the VIX at that 15 handle to play for a correction. And so if we go to the daily chart here, you can see the VIX. This was the buy zone that I highlighted to the team, and I have a bunch of VIX positions running now, currently about four of them, all carrying nice profits. So I'm going to be locking in some profits in terms of the VIX. As we trade into this 22 area, we can see that this zone between 21 and 22 was price support likely to be a little bit of resistance here. But ultimately what I'm looking for with the VIX here is a pop-up to potentially test into the 28 zone. And if the idea that we are going to see this window of corrective action develop, then that would send the VIX higher as the market volatility increases. So holding VIX positions and we'll see when we get through the 22, then we can start to think about the 26, certainly in 28 area before I've been looking to potentially cover these trades. And again, the window in terms of the corrective phase here that we're moving into, I'm not talking about the markets crashing. Certainly, that's not my point. What I've been talking about in the past few weeks is the idea that we're coming into a period where we can trade a corrective move, and then we reassess to see how the market positions, our buyers can step back in, or are we going to see a bit more of a protracted correction. But we manage that step by step, we don't get ahead of ourselves and we're not talking about financial armageddon here, we're just trading the logical price patterns as they develop. So that's the VIX. Let's get back now and take a look at some of these other equity indexes. So here we have the NASDAQ. This is going to be a very pivotal test here at the NASDAQ because we have either completed a fifth wave extension here, or if buyers step back in at the 14,460 level, then what we can start to think about is the idea of a fifth wave extension to test this ascending trend line resistance, which will complete a sequence. And I'm going to set this up then for a more meaningful correction to the downside from those levels at 15,280. Similar to the idea that we just looked at in terms of the S&P, if the buyers aren't home at this trend line, then we've got to think about a deeper correction developing. So the next real support zone, the prior resistance of 14,000 and change would be the first objective. And then any corrective move, we can start to think about a retest of the trend line from below, prior trend line support to actors resistance, and then we'd be looking for an equality objective in terms of the next leg to the downside. So if we start to take out these pivotal trend lines, then we want to start mapping out how a correction, a more protracted correction could develop. So certainly this is a type of scenario I've been watching very closely now in the NASDAQ. If we don't find buyers at the 14,500 level, if we do find buyers there, then you can start to look at, and we get a decent bullish reversal pattern. Then we can start to think about trading the potential fifth wave extension and setting your own position. So we're coming into some very pivotal areas on these equity markets. We know we've got a bunch of momentum divergence. So we'll see if we can get some some follow through here. Let's take a look at the Dow Jones, the Dow was trading to the top side of this trend channel. So we took out the, we've got a couple of closes that we're seeing a sharp reversal today. I would think if we get a close below 34,100 then we can look to think about extending down to certainly retest the 33,000 handle as the next logical target zone. DAX. Also in a bit of trouble here we took out the trend line support when we were consolidating. I was thinking potentially we get another leg higher but I think we're looking at now is a move down. It's a move down to test the support here back into these loads between the 14,800 and 14,980 level. See if buyers step in there equally if they don't then we start to think about a deeper corrected move in the DAX and we could be looking at these higher highs back down into the 14,100 level. Let's see how, how we trade mid-buyer step in this initial support zone. And Nick, as mentioned previously the weakest of the bunch at the moment, we've obviously had news overnight really that we've got China issuing an easing monetary policy note and that comes on the back of some less than impressive growth data out of China. I don't mind China with the first in and first out of the out of the pandemic. It appears now that the market is getting some jitters here on the basis that we aren't seeing exponential growth really developed in China. And that's led to some concern here in the market with a fall back in terms of equity. So first place to look now on the downside is going to be a retest of these prior lows at the 27,131 level. As we don't, as we don't see a big bounce develop, I'll be watching for bearish reverse pansexual positions targeting. This is the equality objective. So let me just draw this in for you to see what we're looking at. So we have this leg, completing the first leg of the correction, then we correct against there and then we're looking for this equality objective to complete the major corrective pattern down into this 25,976 level. So keep an eye on the certainly on this zone, because this is also going to fill in some of these young pairs we're going to look at in a minute as well. So let's check in with the dollar index. We call weighted dollar index, we have been tracking potential correction here in the dollar index, looking ultimately for a test of this. So we have 93,73 and again to see visually can I can see, as I'm talking about so we have this big corrective way of playing out. And we want to see that 93,73 tests in the interim here we could pull back and been trading in this, this pitchfork here, we could pull back and test, we do rain sport dance 91 70s. So we're going to be watching there and get bullish reversal patterns to get in on the long side here to target this 93,73 that's going to be a key decision point areas of the market and we've also got the yearly pivot 94 15. And what's been driving the dollar here is we're seeing some some weakness in the US 10 year. As the market begins to reprice on growth expectations and so what we have is the US 10 years we can see now as tested so let me draw it in here to be visually see what we're looking at so we have this leg, this leg, and then we have the equality objective. You can see we've tested it pretty much to the tip here, and we see now if buyers or sellers in terms of the 10 year notes buyers in terms of yield obviously, step back into the market. If we don't find support here, then we can start to think about certainly retest of the yearly pivot here, 1.06%. And then if that rolls over then we've got this major trend line support back down below 1% so 0.9% in terms of the 10 year yield there. Gold has had a nice pop higher here from the support zone we talked about back down to the 1757 level. I've been watching gold, let's go to the newsletter and see if we can figure a set up here. So we have. So I think we're getting we're getting into the area. So what I think is we completed initial extension here. So we can, in the phase I think now completing this first cycle of the most, and what I'll be watching for now will be a corrective pattern to develop. So it sets up like this into into a three wave corrective pattern back down into these prior highs ideally at the 1790 area. I'll be watching for this scenario to develop and looking at opportunities by the gold at 1790 to play for for an extension higher certainly start to think about 1840 as an upside objective. So keeping an eye on on the gold there on the intraday time frames we can see the daily we're kicking on positively crude oil crude was the initial driver here for I think some of the weakness we've seen these markets. We're testing the monthly pivot from above. I anticipate we could see a bit of a corrective move here ultimately what I'm looking for crude now is to get down and test this 6630 level in crude and certainly I'll be paying very close attention to how we trade there, or an extension down to the 64 this is I think this over here is going to be the next serious opportunity to look at long positions in, in gold, sorry crude oil. So that's, that's the area I'll be paying really close attention to in terms of crude if you get down there, watching the bullish reversal patterns to set long positions and I think we can start to think about getting up into the top side of this channel again for the third test, so up towards $85 in terms of crude oil, really close attention to how this pattern starts to play out terms of crude Bitcoin, still under the cost here I'm looking for a test of the yearly pivot at the 1,700 level, not seeing any meaningful bounces in terms of Bitcoin at the moment, then I think this, this looks to me like a bare flag consolidation pattern developing, and certainly we want to be trading back through this trend line resistance at 45,000 before we could get constructive again on Bitcoin so once we continue to chop around here, I'm looking for another leg lower and certainly then I'd start to pay attention to Bitcoin in terms of adding to positions I have a position running from last October here, which I actually called in the in one of these live analysis sessions last year, 10,500 area. So, so I would look to add to that position. And this is a cash position so I'm not trading on leverage here I'm just, you know, it's a cash holding position. But if we get down in here then I'd start to get interested in Bitcoin. Let's take a look at some of these dollar majors. But again, breaking trend line support here on the daily. So, this is another one then we can start to think about the hourly time frame. And you can see we've got some impulsive qualities developing here, taking out some swing points. Ideally, we'd like to close through 10950s today, and then we can start to think about again, similar, similar scenario, we can break down here then we want to play the first three wave corrective move ideally back into this prior support of the 1040s though then to act as resistance for the next leg to the downside in terms of in terms of the dollar yet. So we're seeing also getting more today so looking for a big outside reversal here in terms of the swissie. And again similar, similar, similar thought process. If you go here on to the time frame any slight issue I can see here with the swissie is only going to trade into an equal legs extension target here. No, we've taken it out so so that's, that's fine. So what I, the type of pattern I would like to play here in the swissie and look at something similar in your own. Is is to play thinking about this is a double top here this. Let me just draw that in for you. So we have the last high here. Second one over here. This is a double top area. What I'd like to see develop now would be a move down to move here into the weekly range support 1913 is prior lows. And so anything it back in here, and then we get ideally the three wave consolidation move back in so ultimately set up a bigger head and shoulder scenario. Giving us another big leg of downside to play for their in terms of the swissie so keep an eye on how we respond into this 1913 1940 area, and then watch for this consolidation. Oftentimes, the left shoulder will be matched here or mirrors the right shoulder so this may not be a setup that is something that occurs imminently, but certainly this is a high probability pattern that we want to pay attention to in terms of the daily euro and so we can be thinking about this for 14. So you know next week, we could be seeing this pattern play out so keep an eye on that one. Let's jump straight to the euro because I've got similar set up here in the euro. So we've got this double bottom in play in terms of the euro. So what I'm looking for now is, is to see any pullback from retreating at the daily range resistance finding some profit taking their which isn't unusual. So any three wave pattern like so gets back down to test the 118 just above the 118. I think that's going to be an opportunity on the long side in terms of the euro and then look to take out this trend line resistance at the 1850. And then start thinking about testing up towards the 1890 handle and maybe, maybe beyond there but the problem we've got with the euro at the moment is there's the daily time frame is that we have this objective to the downside at 1622 so again just so you can visually follow that we have this leg, this leg and this leg looking to complete there. So any correction symmetry swing correction so we measure the last corrective leg. Let's do that. So any, any move here from these lows into the midpoint of the channel there. So 1924 is going to be a target zone I think for a correction to play out so anything like this. We want to pay close attention to do to sell a start to step back in matching we can see that we just use the extension tool. So that gives us that symmetry. It's actually no amount so it's 1910 is the area you want to be watching. So when you move into this area, matching this last corrective phase could be an opportunity to think again about the short side in terms of the euro. Again, if you think about the dollar index, what we're looking for in terms of the dollar index is that is that test into the support zone before extending higher. So that means directly into the euro then so any pullbacks are an opportunity on the long side that certainly want to be thinking about booking profits at 1910 area and then seeing if sellers step back in. Let's take a quick look at some of the ends. So this is the Aussie and it's actually doesn't take time. So in terms of these ends and you think about the end as a safe haven for some target areas want to pay attention to so certainly the euro yen watch 12865 because that's the equality objective versus the current structure. So now comes in there like that if if I step in there then it could be an opportunity, certainly in a short term on the on the long side want to be careful of how we trade at the 136 before if this setup plays out because again you could be thinking about a head and shoulder scenario there. The Aussie yen has a similar pattern. This was a trade that I sent out earlier in the week. So watch how we trade at the 86 to two level. That's the equality objective versus this swing structure here. So this is prior highs and we've also got the 38.2% retracement of the of the last leg of this advance so it's going to be a pivotal area because it's from here that the trend can continue higher or certainly if we don't see by stepping in then that tradeable information for us because we know we could be seeing a much deeper correction development similar story in the Aussie. Actually the audience track is sitting now right at its quality objective. So again thinking in terms of tradeable information. Can we see buyer step in here now and get some bullish reversal patterns going because if we do this corrective pattern here this big ABC that we've been tracking that actually could actually be complete. So really want to pay attention because if that's the case then we could be looking at the next leg to the upside for the Aussie but obviously with these equity markets under pressure it's very difficult for these these commodity currencies to perform. So it's a cute cross cross market or intermarket dynamics that you really need to be paid pay attention to it to see which way we're going to head next. So I've been running that for 30 minutes now guys. I've just opened it up briefly here for Q&A does anyone have a chart they'd like me to take a look at or a question about anything I've mentioned here. If so you can type it into the chat box or I could unmute your mind. Equally, if you don't have a question if you type an N in the chat box that just lets me know that I've done a reasonable job of explaining everything and we're all on the same page. So pay close attention to these equity markets today guys this is, this is what's driving current price action also the yield 10 year yield and the dollar. These, these dynamics need to be watched carefully here. And we'll see if we're going to enter this phase this corrective phase that we've been talking about. And then we can start to track where the target areas are a potential completion of these collections. Okay, if there are any questions guys I'm going to write this one up here. I hope you found it helpful. And I'll catch you at the same time next week. Thanks very much everyone.