 Welcome once again to the Breakfast on PLOS TV Africa. Our first major conversation this morning is on Nigeria's readiness for a global energy transition by 2025, by 2015 or any year in the near future. Let's begin this morning with an investment manager at All Partnerships for Energy Access, Mr. Afolabi Akinrogundi. Good morning, thanks for joining us. Good morning, pleasure to be here. Alright, every now and then we hear about, you know, Nigeria attending conferences and, you know, being a part of agreements, you know, millennium development goals, COP21 and COP26 and the likes. You know, and you know, I'm sure a little bit, you know, a part of us, you know, would always question, you know, what, you know, relevance we actually offer to these conferences, seeing where we are as a country. So we'll get into talking about whether we truly are ready. We will be, we're going to be ready in the next 10 years even. Will the world leave Nigeria behind with regards to energy? But before that, help us understand what exactly a global energy transition is. Okay, thank you. I think that's the starting point. The energy transition essentially refers to the global energy sector shift from a fossil fuel-based system of energy production and consumption, i.e., you are producing gas, you are producing oil, you are producing coal, things of that sort too, a renewable energy-based system which is more things like hydro, wind, solar and what have you. So what I've just said is clear that countries like Nigeria, which are, for example, in terms of energy generation, depend a lot on oil and gas, in terms also of power consumption, also consume a lot of oil and natural oil-based products, and also natural gas used primarily as a source of power generation. It's clear that this transition is going to have implications for Nigeria. Okay, so let's also begin to look at whether or not as a country we should be talking about being part of the global energy transition. Now, first of all, you would want to agree with me that in terms of consumption, electricity consumption, we're still a developing nation. And talking about the fact that countries of the world are now saying, yes, we are moving away and we're looking at very clean energy come 2050. But if you want to juxtapose countries, I mean if you want to begin to compare the emissions that countries like the United Nations, I mean the United States with about 15.5% if I'm not mistaken, gas emission into the environment and comparing with what Nigeria is actually emitting. Do you think that it's fair enough that we should be having this argument? Because I mean entire continent, the Sub-Saharan Africa, we're looking at 0.6%. So do you think that you know it's fair for us to you know to be part of this kind of conversation? Yes, I think the key thing is that this is a global energy transition. So it's actually the whole world that is moving along the this route. And the key thing is going to be that these are the countries also which are consuming our oil. These are the countries which are consuming our natural gas. These are the countries which are generating a lot of industrial products, which we also consume at Nigeria. So the global environment is interconnected. So we cannot more or less as Nigeria or as Africa say that we are not going to be part of this. We sell our products, we sell our oil and natural gas for USD. We bring in cars into Nigeria. So whether we like it or not, we are part of the global environment. Of course, we can continue to see how we can channel that discussion, how we can manoeuvre as a country to ensure that our own national interests are as protected as much as possible, or that we are as nimble as a country as it's possible to see where the rest of the world is going. And then of course, do what needs to be done as a country to ensure that we are not left behind. But just say that, oh, we are not going to be part of this, we are not. It's not possible. Okay, I'm coming from the premise that if you look at, you want to talk about equity now and fairness. Of course, you also want to talk about inclusiveness. I'm saying if you look at these countries, I mean developed countries, they emit most of, you know, these gases that are polluting the environment. I mean, comparing to, I mean, if you want to compare that to Africa or sub-Saharan Africa or even Nigeria, we're not even emitting as much as they are emitting. And so in terms of the percentage, because we also have a situation where there would be compulsory 40% and then, you know, 25% without any conditions. So I'm asking, is that fair enough or should we be looking at negotiating for lesser reduction? Yeah, I think the declared thing is going to be that this is where the whole world is going. And Nigeria has an entity, even where we are, we have very, very little we go as a country where we do not have the negotiation power as much as possible to say, okay, we're not going to do this. Excuse me, we are not in China and we cannot go back and say, in the real politic, in the global stage, this is not fair, it's not an argument. You have to sit down and say, what is my own interest? Where is the put going? Where is the ball going? How do I make sure that by the time the ball gets to that point, I as a country am ready. Of course, I can sit down and fight for one or two things for myself to ensure that this works. But at the end of the day, you know, as I said, the global energy transition is also not coming up as a result of those people don't say, okay, this is going to be better. There are things which are happening in our environment. Global climate change, which is affecting everywhere. If you look at the coastlines in Nigeria, if you look at the Sahara, if you look at the various parts of the world, the seasons are changing, the environment is changing, global temperature is rising up. So it's affecting everybody, whether you are in Nigeria or you are inside there. So the key thing really at the end of the day is for us to actually sit down and say, this is where the world is going, this is where the people who are buying my oil, this is where the people who are buying my gas, this is where they're going to be getting their energy from in the next 20, 25, 30 years. So what do I need to do as a country to sit down now, have a plan and work that plan, but to sit down and say, oh, it's not fair, it's not fair, that's not how the world works. The world doesn't work like that. The world basically works in terms of what is urgent and what is in people's interest. And I do have to have to sit or sit up and start doing that. Yeah, Mr. Akinrogun, what should be the biggest motivation for Nigeria, the giant of Africa? Should it be the economic concerns, seeing that we've not been able to diversify our economy enough so that, of course, when we lose out on oil sales in the near future, we can still survive? Should that be the biggest concern or should it be climate change? Because we aren't having a very, very broad conversation with regards to the effect of climate change in Africa. Just pretty much the same thing we're doing with COVID-19. Everyone's acting like it's not really affecting us, it's not really our business. What would you say that in the next, let's give it 20 years, should be Nigeria's biggest concern or motivation to join in with the global energy transition, the economic concerns or the climate concerns? I think the key thing to do right now is to more or less do two things. Number one, decide to pivot to gas, which is something which Nigeria is already looking at, because gas is going to have a longer shelf life, so to speak, compared to where oil is gas is still going to be around, it's a bit longer than oil is going to be. So I think that pivot to gas is critical, which is what you see, for example, for more than 15 years, we'll be looking at how to get NLNG 27 gone. That is one thing that the government has realized. They've allowed the FID final investment decision on that project to get along. So we can see some evidence that the government is realizing that, yes, we need to pivot to gas because lots of the energy that has been generated in the world today is based on gas because gas is the cleanest of the dirty world. So you can see that gas is something that we can still use. Then the second thing is to then sit down and look at our power sector. What can we do to number one, optimize on the gas we have, because Nigeria has decided that even though we have a target of 2060 as a country to achieve our own zero target, which is just 140 years from now, what can we do as a country to at least sit down and say, okay, our gas let's optimize this gas now while we can. And then let's also redesign our power delivery and energy utilization systems to enable us to maximize on our own resources within the window that we have as a country. So this redesigning means that we have to sit down for making a centralized grid. How can we put renewable energy into our system? How can we make it a lot more robust so that if something happens in part of the grid, the old grid doesn't shut down so that we don't have only one source of supply. Many of the countries that have energy security today in the world have different sources of supply, different sources of energy, of energy production. So those are the kind of things that we have to look at as a country. You have to look at number one, transiting as much as possible into a gas-based economy for the short-term, medium-term and of course number two also in terms of how we generate our own power, optimize on that gas quickly because very much you know, 20, 25, 30 years from now, what the world is doing in terms of what it's doing to coal can start becoming the same thing that's going to happen to gas. So we don't have all day, we don't have the old world otherwise we will find out that we have all this gas, we have all this oil and nobody wants it. So I think we have like a 20-25 year window in which we need to get things going and I think we need to see it in terms of urgency from the people in governance because if we think we have problems today, at the same time this change of course will be a lot more difficult. What I'm asking is what should be our biggest motivation for this process and to take these steps. Is it you know, economical? Are we going to be looking mostly at how Nigeria as a country will suffer if the world moves away from fossil fuels? Are we going to be looking more at the climate aspect of it and how of course we will be affected? You have to do anything in one way. You have to look at it too. You have to combine both your climate concerns with your economic concerns. So that is the way countries are going. You have to look at it. You have to manage like every other country, manage your economy, manage education, manage healthcare. So it's not looking at you have to live on and live the other. They are both important but of course the key, the biggest challenge we have in Africa is that the African or the Nigerian is poor. So I have to see before I think of the economy or the climate in two years or three years or five years time. But you are the leader of the country. You are the one who knows that yes in 10 years, 20 years, even though the African Nigerian may not have that thinking of how do I get to $1,000, $2,000, $5,000 to reach today or this week. You are the one who has to sit down and balance all these all these urgencies to ensure that at least even though yes I manage my climate issues today, I still ensure that this economy continues only because even if you have a good climate and everything is going, if all of you are hungry and there's no fuel and there's no power, you are still in trouble. So it's basically an issue of balancing. So what do we now do because I mean it's very scary as much as we'll be thinking that 2050 is far from us this is 2022 already and before we could know it we're already in 2050. So the point now is if you look at us already we agree that we're totally dependent on the oil sector, the crude for all of our earnings and that also is responsible for funding of our budget and what have you. So if the usefulness of fossil fuel would diminish at the time what becomes of the Nigerian economy and what drastic steps can we start taking now to ensure that we move away from the dependency of one sector of the economy. That's the oil economy. So the key things again with me, number one to realize that you have an emergency and not create the political games of kicking the can down the road. Let me shift this problem for another four, five, eight years. Let the next government think about it. Believe that we have as a country a natural emergency and then start changing our behaviour in the way that shows that we are actually responding, actively responding to that emergency. How do we then decide to say okay, how do we then activate all the other elements of our ecosystem in Nigeria to actually encourage, for example, the youth, for example, we will find out that not only what we're having in FinTech, all of the things that have generated FGI into Nigeria in the last two, three years have got very little to do with the federal government. So these are the things that we have to encourage. How do we, for example, make an economy, a service based economy, all of the things which are happening in various other parts of the world, where for example, India is used more or less as a great centre for the service economy, i.e., both centre and whatever. What we have, we have a host of graduates, of unemployed graduates, of rich people in Nigeria, of rich labour in Nigeria that can be channeled. So it's not going to be to tell everybody to start carrying on going into agriculture. But how can you then diversify your economy? And it's not necessarily diversified by spending money. It's actually diversification also by ensuring that you show people that you are serious, that you show people that the rule of law counts in Nigeria, that you show people that things matter in this country. And you enable the changes that need to be real. People that want to make changes, let them make those changes. Don't say that this is going to be against the start of school. And then sit down and then reorganise the entire power sector. Reorganise it and show that what you get the best you can get from the gas while the going is still good. Get the best you can get from your oil. Get the best you can get from your gas. Use that money to diversify into the rest of the economy. I believe Nigeria has another 20-30 years max of doing which we need to do what needs to be done. Already as we've seen in many parts of the world, banks in Europe, some banks in America are finding it very difficult to actually on oil and gas projects. So it's something that is already happening to us as a country. So we need to get with that enable, unleash the potential of the Nigerian of the dead capital that is left in Nigeria. For example, using your land as loan is difficult. Getting a lot of other things that we need to do. It's not just sitting down and say, whoa, I can with diversify. There are things that government needs to do by way of policy but by way of the way things are done I can unleash a lot of economic activity in Nigeria. So I think that that is way outside of the mandates of this discussion. But it's something which we need to see as a country until we have an emergency coming at us. In the other 30, 40, 50, 60 years, we will have all this oil and gas and nobody is going to come for it. They will say, well, eat your oil, eat your gas. So what are we going to do? But if we don't have that sense of urgency, if we don't sit down and say, what do we need to do? Where are the other areas? Which parts of the economy are going? You know, we have Bonnaboy, we have people, we have the entertainment sector, we have music sector in Nigeria, we have billion dollar companies in Nigeria started by under 30, 140 youths. How do we encourage all of that to ensure that Nigeria continues to become an attractive center for both investment and also for the unleashing of the potential of Nigeria? And I think that is what we need to do. The way we have been doing it for the last six years is not working. We need to change our ways and we need to look at how to get things done better. What would it take for us to become more serious about conversations like this, about supporting some of the things that you've mentioned, the information technology sector, the entertainment sector, the tourism sector and some of all of that? What will it take? Will it take a government that understands these things or will it take a situation where, of course we always have knee-jerk reactions from the Nigerian government. They never actually take action and plan ahead. We hear every now and then of a five-year developmental plan, ten-year developmental plan, but all of that never really comes into play. So will it take a different set of leaders entirely to put Nigeria on that path or something else? I think the key thing we need right now is creativity. We need to have, we just need creativity. We need to sit down and find the people who can actually make, who can actually facilitate the growth of this country in the manner that needs, that it needs to go through. It's not going to be something, I cannot sit down here and tell you that yes, of course there will be one or two things. The PIB which has been more or less in working for the last 20 or so years has been possible. What are not, despite all the challenges we've been with it, that has been passed into law. We've seen any NLNG 27, we've seen a few people. In terms of the overall overhauling of this country, I think the government needs to sit down and have a sense of urgency. If you don't have that sense of urgency and you just sit down and say, okay, nothing looks like it's changing. It's like a fork in boiling water. If you put that fork in boiling water, the temperature is slowly changing around here and that fork is boiling, but because the temperature doesn't change immediately, you think everything is okay. By the time you notice that the temperature has changed, it's too late for you. So I think we need to sit down as a country, at leadership level and decide. It doesn't have to be when you are now making a tent of what you are making in 2045, you are making a tent of what you are making in 2021. You're now finding out that yes, you have a problem. You have to see to the future and decide this is not where, this is not going to all go well for this country. What do I need to do? Across both my education sector, my power sector, my electricity sector, my oil and gas sector, what do I need to do to prepare this country for what is going to hit it in the next 20, 30, 40 years? Okay, so what are your thoughts quickly? Because we know that Nigeria so far has been making plans to shift from the use of petrol to natural, I mean clean gas or clean cooking gas as it is. What are your thoughts? Do you think that this is a step in the right direction and that we are moving towards 2050 where some countries of the world have agreed to keeping the environment and protecting the climate? Yeah, maybe the short and medium term, that can make sense. By short and medium term I am talking about the next 10, 15 years, maybe that can make sense. That can make a tent in terms of how much we are spending on petrol, for example, as a country. I've gotten some of that into gas. I spend pretty much 10 years of my career as a gasman myself so I understand how the gas space works. But the key thing is going to be for you first to sit down and think exactly as I said, no, begin to think, stop thinking like we were doing in Nigeria in terms of 5 years or 10 years or 15 years. Start thinking like the Chinese, like the Japanese. 50 years, 30 years, 40 years, what's going to happen? You are saying this, my dear sister, because you still have gas. Europe is going to stop producing petrol or gas-based gas in another 20 years' time. So the gas coming into Nigeria in 20, 30, 40 years' time are not even going to have propulsion engines. Look at me. So the key thing is going, as I said, this is a global thing. It is not making petrol, diesel gas cars in Europe, in the Americas, in China in 20 years' time, in the 25 years' time. By 30 years' time, the cars in Nigeria, because let's assume that they will start dumping all their petrol cars in Nigeria or the developing world. By 30 years' time, they have dumped all those cars. The only cars we'll have in Nigeria will have to be EV cars, electronic cars. So that is the way we are going, whether we like it or not. The best we can do is to manage and wiggle as one of our football coaches, say, rumble and fumble and find a way to the answer. But at the end of the day, we have to sit down and find a solution. Know that this is where the world is going and find a way to actually make ourselves competitive in the new world that is shaping up. But as much as I would agree that it's important that we also grapple and find a way as a country and also as a continent. But I'm also thinking that for the countries that are championing this course of global energy transition, we would also want to agree that Africa and energy consumption is not at the same level. And even with the level of emission, we already know the countries that are actually contributing to polluting the entire world or the entire space. But however, we will talk about the fact that globalization is what it is and it would get to every part of the world wherever it is that we're faced with. But I'm also thinking that there should be some form of inclusiveness. These third world countries cannot be abandoned. They can't be left all by themselves. They need to be carried along with this particular agenda. You also see how some countries who have also not been able to ratify, I mean, some of these oil producing countries, about four of them Iran, to that Paris agreement. And so you begin to ask yourself whether or not it's just or not just. I mean, the fact that you have some people agreeing and some people not really agreeing to this protocol, is there some level of fairness and equity despite the implication that it holds for the entire world? Again, as I've said, yes, I agree with you. Let me start by agreeing. I agree with you that the global system as it is right now is the environmental problem we have to cause primarily by the Western countries, which basically used 200 years more or less of industrialization to actually pump all of these gases into the air and change the makeup of our ecosystem. But the challenge still remains that whether you like it or not, the world to today is led by these countries. And so you can sit down and fight, which is what I've said, and use that same game. At the end of the day, fairness is not when you get to the price tax, when you get to where the decision that affects tens of millions, billions of people's is concerned. Fairness is not an argument. I've been on those tables in the past. Fairness is not this is fair. This is godly. This is unfair. It's not, it's not, you can, of course, they can show you one or two crumbs and say, okay, just pick this, but give you an extra three years or four years or five years or whatever. But that three, four, five years will finish. And you'll be back to where you started from. So we have to sit down and say, this is where the world is good. This is where the people who are pumping billions of dollars into our oil and gas sector. This is where they are moving their money. All the, all the major oil and gas companies are more or less, if you look at their plans for 20, 22, none of them had major plans for a year. So we have to sit down and say the world is shifting as we are right now and saying that our is not right. Our is not good. God is not an answer. You have to sit down and say, yes, you can say that. I use that to get one or two advantages. Minor advantages for ourselves. But the key thing for us is going to say, what can we do as a country? Because whether you like it or not, you are going to get to that place. Whether it's 10 years after, 20 years after, 15 years after, you are going to get to that point. So saying that, oh, you are not going to argue because the other key thing is that there are also a lot of other factors, which many of these countries also have. Because Nigeria is a lot more keyed into the global system. It's a lot more dependent upon the global system than many of these other countries are. That are saying they are not part of it. We go to them for loans. They invest in our economy. So you cannot wake up and say you are not signing onto a certain agreement. It is in your own interest also. But you also have to sit down and say, what can you do in your own country? Put your own house in order. Telling somebody that what is done is not fair. It doesn't make sense. But sit down and say, what do you need to do as a country to put your own house in order? That is the most important. If you are using any of our energy today, 95% of our energy should be focused on putting our own house in order. You use 5% to be asking for them to give us freebies or to give us analysis. Alright. He is an investment manager. All partnerships for energy access. Afalabi, Akin, Rougunde. Thank you so much for your time and for sharing your thoughts with us this morning. We wish you a great day. Thank you very much. Alright. Stay with us. The Auditor General of the Federation has of course declared that 178,000 plus weapons, AK-47s and the likes have been declared missing and unaccounted for in the last two, three years by the Nigerian police. And also 3.2 billion Naira worth of ghost contracts were also given out that have no paperwork or confirmation of being done. These are some of the things that we are talking about next here on The Breakfast. Good morning.