 Welcome traders to another tickmail earnings report preview with me Patrick Manon before we jump into today's report As always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer most importantly with respect to today's presentation Views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by tickmail UK or tickmail Europe limited Okay, so we're looking at Netflix today Netflix Report after the close of trade in New York today We're looking for an earnings for share of two ninety eight on revenue of just over eight point zero four billion There is a whisper number on the street I would note so for the potential for the EPS to come in as high as $312 Netflix was once accustomed to big revenue growth and profit growth It's now facing major challenges inflation is limiting consumers home entertainment budgets Sni-chain crisis has hurt smart TV sales and streaming entertainment competitors are lowering away viewers in a bid to reverse decelerating growth Netflix plans to launch a lower priced Advertising support inversion of its platform later this year This marks a major departure for Netflix which brandled itself for years as an ad-free company Investors will closely watch Netflix executives plans to Overcome these challenges when the company reports today and this expect that Netflix quarterly EPS will fall year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter Revenues expected to grow but at its slowest quarterly pace in the last five years Investors will also focus on Netflix global paid streaming memberships a key measure of its monetizable user base Although Netflix subscribers base grew to over 200 million during the COVID-19 pandemic the rate of growth has Been on a path of quarterly deceleration for about two years and let's predict that Netflix will see its slowest membership growth rates in nearly four years Netflix shares have vastly underperformed the broader market in the last year Stock outpaced the market between August and December of 2021 But it fell both before and after the company's Q4 2021 report in January 2022 Investors were jolted on January 20th when the company forecast it would have a fewer Subscribers in Q1 than a year earlier the stock fell sharply again after the company's first quarter earnings report in April Since that time it has traded roughly sideways as of July 16th The stock has provided a one-year trading total return of negative 65.2% well behind the S&P's negative 11.4% Okay, let's take a look at some of the trading patterns we can anticipate around the Netflix earnings Netflix shares have moved lower in the immediate after-marth of earnings 10 out of the last 12 reports On average the stock has moved down in the first day of trading 6.7% after the company reports Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, Netflix is more likely to trade lower one day after earnings for an average loss of 0.2% On average the stock has moved lower by 2.6% one week after earnings Let's see what the options market is pricing after that massive move that we saw after the April release Options traders are pricing a 15% move on earnings Stock has actually averaged a 9.9% move in recent quarters From a flow and sentiment perspective, there has been notable buying of 26,895 contracts of the $185 core expiring this Friday But in general options order flow sentiment has been bearish investor sentiment going into the company's earnings Only 15% expecting an earnings beat Netflix share price has shifted down Has drifted down to 16.4% post earnings announcement Using the last 12 quarters of data the average drift between earnings announcement is 5.4% Let's take a look at the charts and see if we can identify any near-term trading opportunities So in terms of the the setup here, it looks pretty bearish in terms of the structure We obviously have this gap After prior earnings release and gaps tend to occur in wave three if we're thinking in terms of a little wave cycle So that would suggest we have a wave three low in place We are looking at a wave four consolidation here in a rectangle pattern at the moment So from a technical perspective, that's the bearish side of things But we do have this double bottom and play With some nice momentum divergence So we can see this push and pull here in the consolidation phase So what I've been looking for would be any break of the $164 level to the downside I'd want to be engaging on the short side We have a minimum five equals one downside objective towards the $80 level On the alternative scenario if there is an upside surprise in the earnings Then any close back through this trend line resistance at the 210 level Would be the potential then setting up for a short squeeze and the natural target there would be that gap Back up into the $333 level Possible less probable I would suggest at this stage given the current setup But those are the areas that I'm going to be watching After the earnings to to engage in the market As always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all this until next time. Thanks very much