 Good afternoon, Mr. Minister, but I don't see you. Well, I hope you are here. I can see you and hear you. Well, thank you very much. It is a good start. So first, I would like to thank you very much for being. Ah, I see you now. I see you. I thank you very much for being with us. With us, it means the world policy conference. It means ifry, which you know well. So thank you very much. As you can imagine, Ukraine, the war in Ukraine has been one of the major topics that we have discussed since yesterday morning and that we will continue to discuss until tomorrow late. Many countries are represented here, not only European or the US, but also Asia and the global south. So my first question would be to ask you your assessment of the military situation, just now as we are speaking. And again, from the military viewpoint, what are your prospects for the winter time that everybody is discussing with, of course, a number of uncertainties? So please, can you answer this first question? Dear Thierry, dear participants of the panel, first of all, thank you for inviting me. And I would like to congratulate you on organizing this excellent world policy conference, which brings together so many prominent voices from all parts of the world. And this is probably the most important achievement to bring together representatives of so many regions and countries. You know, one important reason why Ukraine has not only withstood Russia's full-scale attack, but is actually gradually winning this war is that we have never relied on weather, on the season of the year. Be it winter, spring, summer, autumn, we keep fighting because we are defending our land and stakes are very high for us. And nothing can stop us. Nothing can stop our brave Ukrainian soldiers and our brave people of Ukraine who suffer enormously from Russian missile, regular missile attacks on critical infrastructure, depriving us of electricity, water, and heating. We know that our army needs to be well equipped to fight in the winter just as well as it fights in the summer. And you need artillery ammunition always, irrespective of the weather or the season. And the difference between us and the Russians during the winter, there is one. We, of course, take better care of the soldiers fighting at the frontline. We provide them with winter uniform, with everything that can help them to warm up and to survive under in this fight. For the Russian attitude towards its own soldiers is different. For them, the lives of people are not important. We take many of them prisoners of war and see how poorly they are equipped and what they wear. This is a disgrace, this is the choice of the Russian army. It's not well equipped for winter. And I'm afraid that many Russian soldiers will suffer enormously from cold weather and will be seriously wounded because of that. So we hope that winter is a game changer and that Russians now like to talk about winter special time represents the mood in the Kremlin right now. We have the impression that Putin's center does not accept the reality that he is losing the war. From what we know, even a part of Russian oligarchs and military command realizes that Russia will not win this war. And the longer it refuses to accept the reality, the more painful the defeat will be. But Putin is not in that circle. He still hopes for some kind of miracle to turn the tide of the war and the tide of history, I wouldn't say, in his favor. Sorry for this comparison. I know they have been used so often in the past that this reality reminds me, Adolf Hitler in 1944 and 1945. He was hoping that Roosevelt's death is a turning point after which he will be winning again or hoping that there will be a Wunderwasser, a wonderful weapon that will change it all and bring life and victory back to Germany. The reality, in fact, is that Russia is losing and Ukraine is winning. Yes, the battles are very difficult. Yes, there are some difficult days ahead for us. Yes, we are paying a painful price, but we are fighting a just war against an invader, against an aggressor who was not provoked, who decided to go to wage war against us. We are defending our territory and we are ready to pay the price as any other nation in the world is. The most difficult situation is embattement. Embattement right now, Ukrainian soldiers are repelling waves of Russian attacks 24 hours a day and literally seven days a week. Russia is waging there on a human World War II-style warfare. They sent forward poorly equipped and under-trained records, some of them from the private military company, Wagner, and were recruited to this company from prisoners, prisons, they're prisoners who promised amnesty if they go in the first line of attackers in Ukraine and Serbia. These are not some kind of made-up stories that Ukraine is telling. This is the reality we see on the ground every day. Our soldiers intercept Russian military communication on that side. And you know what they call this poor cannon fodder which they sent in hundreds to be killed within minutes? They call them one-time act. This is the type of cynical and in human war they wage, where human life doesn't matter. This is the difference. This is the biggest difference between Russia and Ukraine. The way we consider human life. For us, it's precious. For them, the people are one-timers. You send them human to the battle and he gets killed. This is it. So despite all the difficulties, we will keep moving forward. We don't care about weather, whatever weather it will be, we will keep moving forward until we fully restore our territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders. Thank you. Well, thank you very much for this very precise answer. So now I would like to ask you about the notion of winning the war or losing the war because there is one winning side and one losing side. How do you define precisely winning the war? Is it total unconditional capitulation like let's say the Germans, not in 1945, but in 1918? Is it the way you would define winning the war or the Russians losing the war? Is it the collapse of the Russian Federation of Putin committing suicide since you mentioned Hitler in 1945? How do you define the winning and the losing side? Well, frankly, I don't care how Putin ends. It's up to the people of Russia to decide. I care for Ukraine and we're not asking for anything more than belongs to us by history and by law. And that is our borders. So for us, winning the war is fully restoring territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, which in practice means going back to the status quo that existed before February, 2014 when Russia began its war against Ukraine by legal attacks in Crimea. So this is the non-negotiable part of the victory. This is something that must happen unconditionally. And then there is a broader issue of the strategic victory, not only of Ukraine but also the entire international community because what is its stake in Ukraine relates to the whole, the entire world. The world cannot exist if countries can get away with violating international borders, committing mass atrocities, if these countries do not play by the rules. So the next question is how to make Russia's play by the rules? And that is a more complicated question because one thing is to kick them out of Ukraine but the threat, the source of the threat will remain. I don't think there is a definite answer to this question. There are many, many scenarios possible but a strategic victory for the entire international community will be having Russia that plays by the rules. And this is something that we have to be focused on right now on thinking how to make it happen. And if that requires a change of the regime in Russia, then yes, Russian people have to undergo this transition. But again, I think this change should come from inside of Russia. It's the people of Russia who have to make a decision. The question is how to create conditions where the people of Russia will realize that they have to make this change. And this is where international community can play a role. But again, without Russia that does not pose a threat, not only to its neighbors, but to the world order as such victory, it's impossible to imagine a strategic victory. Well, thank you very much. That too is very clear. Now I think that the Americans and the Europeans for the time being at least and probably for the foreseeable future follow you in the way you are approaching the crisis. But the rest of the world, for the rest of the world, as I told you, it is represented here also to a large extent, do not necessarily follow you entirely. For instance, India, I am thinking of a recent intervention of the foreign minister of India, but others say that this war is not their war, it is not their cause. They consider it as an internal Western issue. And they see the immense short, medium, and long term consequences for them if only economy, food security, and so forth and so on. So what do you have to tell them since many of these countries are represented here? Well, we all understand why people say these things. You can say 100 times that this is not your war, but when food prices go high and when because of the Russian blockade of Ukrainian export of agricultural products, all of a sudden people wake up and understand that they suffer from the war which they believe has nothing to do with them. And we hear calls from many corners of the world asking to unblock the export of grain from Ukraine. But the reason why it happened is simple. It's because Russia attacked Ukraine. It's not because Ukraine defends itself, it's because Russia attacked Ukraine. So some countries are playing a pretty hypocritical game by saying, well, this war has nothing to do with us, but please make sure that we receive our grain. And we don't want to judge, we don't want to call space a space, we don't care why this is happening, just fix it. Just get it down. Others behave differently. They try to benefit from the war. And so when some countries are saying, okay, this is a good opportunity to buy Russian oil at cheap price because Russia is making big discounts, yes, you have a right to do so because you care for your interests and for your people. But don't forget that you are making profits and you have the opportunity to help your people buy cheaper diesel at the station because someone in Ukraine is dying, fighting the Russian army or dying from Russian missile attacks. Because without this war, without sanctions imposed on Russia, Russia wouldn't be offering its oil with discounts, trying to sell it globally. So everyone makes his point that makes total sense in the world of politics. But I think we deserve an honest assessment and appreciation of what we're doing. And if you are benefiting from this war, don't forget to do something to help Ukraine win, at least as a gesture of gratitude. If you want problems caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine to be resolved, don't forget to support Ukraine in ending this war because without it, there will be no problems. There will be no problems without Russia. I can tell you that with absolute certainty. I was visiting some African countries, very good conversations, very good friends. And one of my colleagues said to me, Dmitry, we only realized how Ukraine is important for our food security when the export from Ukraine was blocked. And now, for the first time in 30 years, we realized that we depend on you and Ukraine. And I said, exactly, this is the point. You hadn't realized it before because everything worked perfectly fine. And there was no reason for you to even think where this grain comes from because it was coming without any single problem. But Russia's attack changed it all. So those countries, those in the world who are saying that this is not their war, should also remember one last argument, the one that I already mentioned. No country in the world wants a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, the nuclear power to have the right to invade, to commit mass atrocities because everyone else, if Russia succeeds with this, everyone else in the world who wants to change borders by force will be tempted to follow the pattern of Russian behavior. And people can say 100 times that this is not their war, truth is that the Russian aggression against Ukraine has global repercussions. And therefore, all of us should be interested in ending this war as soon as possible and ending it with the victory of Ukraine because it defends not only itself, but also the rules that this world is based on. So thank you very much. And now we are moving towards a more short-term issue precisely on how to help Ukraine. I think next Tuesday in Paris, 13th of December, there is a starting a conference on the resilience and reconstruction in Ukraine. Can you tell us what you expect precisely and what you need, what your demands will be? We have to go through the winter and the winter without a stable functioning of our energy system. More than a half of our energy system was damaged or destroyed one way or another by massive Russian missile attacks. The latest many transformers, many parts of the electricity grid, they are gone, they do not exist anymore and our energy experts are making miracles to keep the country functioning. I myself spent 30 hours without the supply of electricity and water in the apartment where I live. So I now have this experience how to end up without light, heating and water in the middle of the winter with minus five degrees Celsius outside of the window. So this is the biggest challenge now. Putin believes that he will break us down by destroying our energy system and make us freeze during the winter. This is a very silly estimation and another mistake that Russia is making, they're just wasting their missiles. Yes, because of a lot of damage, yes, people die because of that, but as a nation, we will not break down. So this conference that you mentioned, it's in Paris next week. First and foremost, we expect from it a coordinated effort of those who will participate in this conference in providing Ukraine with transformers, generators and spare parts for electricity grid that will help us to go through the winter. So thank you very much for this very concrete answer too. Now I would like to move to a wider issue until, I think it was in March of this year, that President Zelinsky said that Ukraine might consider to a status of neutralization, neutral status. Of course, since then, you have changed your position and you expressed it very well, but more precisely, my question is, do you intend to apply for NATO, candidacy for NATO, anytime soon? And if it is not soon, when? Actually, we did. We did apply. I think it was a month or two ago. We did send a formal application. I think we just don't want to waste time. If this, one of the outcomes of this war will be full integration of Ukraine into the European Union and NATO. Because we have to think strategically. Yes, the country is at war now and it's hard to imagine us joining NATO right now. But the future of the new Atlantic security is being decided on the battlefield in Ukraine. And after the war, Ukraine will have one of the most capable armies in the world and definitely the most capable army in Europe, taking into account its combat experience, morale and military equipment. So it would be very unwise for NATO to ignore or not to accommodate such a contributor to the Euro-Atlantic security. And in a broader sense, of course, it's obvious that the eastern border of Ukraine will is already the eastern border of the Euro-Atlantic space. It's a de facto, it's the statement of fact. So membership in NATO will be adjusted a legal recognition of it. This will come, I have no doubt in that. Of course, we will be hearing many discussions, many statements, pro and contra. This is all how the world works. We know how to live with it, we know how to work with it. But strategically, I have no doubt that this is going to happen at a just amount of time. Would you say that it is easier? So now I'm talking relatively practical things. I mean, the conditions to apply, to be accepted in NATO versus the condition to enter the European Union, which is a much more complicated stuff. So would you say from your viewpoint that it is easier and it should come faster to become a member of NATO than to become a member of the EU? Procedurally, definitely. It is easier to become a member of NATO than of EU. But in both cases, this accession implies making a clear political decision by current members within a specific period of time. And as I said, the timeline is... I don't have a very specific answer about the timeline when it will happen. And I don't know what will happen sooner in NATO or EU in terms of the timelines. But I have no doubt that this is going to happen if EU and NATO compete with each other in the pace of bringing Ukraine in. I would only welcome that competition. Yes. Well, we have just a few minutes left. So perhaps we could concentrate on this time perspective because one possible scenario, I don't know which probability you would assign to it, would be a short victory, meaning perhaps a clear victory in the next few months, sometime in 2023. That's one scenario. And intellectually, it is likely that if this happened, the issue of joining NATO and this political decision to accelerate your admission to the European Union, all this could go relatively fast. But there is another scenario which is that of a protracted war, a war which could continue to last for months, for months, and some people even say for years. And if this happened, the whole history could be rather different. So could you tell us your reasons to believe that you could achieve a victory in a short time span? Actually, we are not setting any specific deadlines for ourselves. Because as I said, we are fighting a just war against an invader. And if someone breaks into your apartment and you are trying to fight him back, you're not setting yourself a deadline. You're not saying, I will fight with this intruder for 10 minutes, but if I don't succeed, then I just give up and allow him to do everything that he wants. Or I propose him that he stays in the corridor and I will keep the rest of my apartment under my control. This is simply not how it works when you are invaded. You are fighting a just war against the aggressor. You fight until you kick him out, whatever it takes. And it doesn't matter how much time it takes because you're fighting on the right side of history for the right cause. So there are different estimation based on the military capacity, the economic capacity of both sides, the impact of sanctions, the impact of Russian revenues from trading oil and gas, on the economic stability in Russia, there are many, many, many calculations and estimations, but I don't think either of them will be correct in the end because there is also an element of the black swan that has to be taken into account. Not everything can be forecasted mathematically. This is not how war works. You know what I learned in this 10 months of the war is that war is a combination of mathematics and philosophy. So on the one hand... Both are the same. Yeah, on the one hand, you have to calculate the resources, but on the other hand, it's really about perceptions, morale and understanding of the end purpose of your effort. So we are going to win. This is going to happen. This is already happening and time doesn't really matter. What matters is the availability of resources to win. The more resources we have, the sooner we will win. The less resources we have, the longer it will take. Last question, because we are approaching the end, I think we have agreed to respect exactly the time span. If instead of me, you were talking with Macron, just now, what would you tell him? I was saying, Mr President, thank you for being a very strong supporter of Ukraine and sending the weapons that you have already sent. Thank you for supporting, for playing a leading role in granting Ukraine, in building consensus to grant Ukraine new candidate status. But this thing about security guarantees for Russia is something that we don't think makes a lot of sense to human race. So I was right to ask you that question. I hope I gave you the good answer. Well, Mr Minister, thank you very much for these very open, genuine answers that you made. Thank you very much, and I hope that in a not-too-distant future, with an improved situation on the front of this war, we will have the pleasure of discussing with you again. This is, as you did it a few months ago, at IFRI. So I invite you for a similar discussion within the IFRI framework. At the end of the winter, during the winter, at the end of the winter. Thank you very much and best wishes. Thank you, and my guest, the doctor, and the patient, who will participate in the week now. Thank you. Thank you.